To: The David Garcia Campaign for Governor 

 
From: Change Research 
 
Date: October 11, 2018 
 
RE: Arizona Statewide Results  
 
Recent polling from Change Research, commissioned by by the David Garcia for 
Governor campaign, shows the race for Governor competitive heading into the final 
month. Despite a heavy blitz of negative advertising, Doug Ducey holds a 47.2% to 39.6% 
lead and is under the 50% threshold an incumbent should be at heading into re-election. 
A tenth (11.4%) say they are undecided. Garcia holds a significant lead with women (48.6% 
- 36.7%), with the Governor receiving barely more than a third; David leads among Latinos 
(44.5% - 38.9%) and young voters (53.3% - 27.2% 18-34 years old). Among Democrats, 
Garcia leads 85.2% to 2.7%. 
 
Voters are pessimistic about the direction Arizona is heading with a majority (52.7%) 
believing the state is heading off on the wrong track. With resources and a clear 
message offering the change voters seek, the race will be highly competitive down the 
stretch. 
 
Polling was conducted online from October 9th through 10th, 2018. Using its Bias Correct 
Engine to attain a sample reflective of the electorate throughout the state, Change 
Research polled 783 likely voters in Arizona. Post-stratification weights were made on 
age, gender, ethnicity, county, and 2016 Presidential vote to reflect the distribution of 
likely voters. 

   
Change Research Tracking Poll -- David Garcia for AZ 
783 Likely Voters, October 9th-10th, 2018 
 
● What is your gender? 
 
49%  Male 
51  Female 
 
● In what year were you born?  
 
17%  18-34 
23  35-49 
32  50-64 
28  65+ 
 
● What race/ethnicity best describes you? 
 
78%  White / Caucasian 
17  Hispanic 
2  Black or African American 
2  American Indian or Alaska Native 
1  Asian / Pacific Islander 
 
● How would you say that things are going in Arizona right now? Are they going in the right 
direction, or are they off on the wrong track? 
 
47%  Right direction 
53  Wrong track 
 
● If the general election for Governor of Arizona were held today, who would you vote for? 
[RANDOMIZE] 
 
All  Women  Men  White  Hispanic  18-34 
39.6%  48.6%  30.6%  39.3%  44.5%  53.3  David Garcia, the Democrat 
47.2  36.7  57.8  48.7  38.9  27.2  Doug Ducey, the Republican 
11.4  12.7  10.1  10.8  12.8  16.8  Undecided 
1.7  1.9  1.6  1.2  3.9  2.6  Would not vote 
 
● If the general election for US Senate were held today, who would you vote for? 
[RANDOMIZE]   
 
All  Women  Men  White  Hispanic  18-34 
43.7%  52.4%  34.7%  42.9%  48.5%  48.4  Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrat 
43.5  33.9  53.3  45.2  33.9  28.2  Martha McSally, the Republican 
10.9  11.9  9.9  10.8  12.5  19.2  Undecided 
 1.7  1.9  2.1  1.2  5.2  4.2  Would not vote 
● Which of the following political parties do you most closely identify with? ​[RANDOMIZE] 
 
39%  Republican 
35  Democrat 
19  Independent 
7  Libertarian 
 
● On a scale of 1-10, how do you feel about President Donald Trump? 1 means you strongly 
oppose him and 10 means you strongly support him. 
 
34%  10 - Strongly Support 
5  9 
6  8 
3  7 
2  6 
2  5 
0  4 
1  3 
3  2 
45  1 - Strongly Oppose 
   
49%  Total Support (6-10) 
49  Total Oppose (1-4) 
 
● In the November 2016 election, did you vote for: 
 

47.8%  Donald Trump, the Republican 

43.7  Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 
4.1  Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 
1.0  Jill Stein, the Green Party 
3.5  Did not vote