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HYPER MEGA NET CASE STUDY

CPM and PERT - Project Management

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OCTOBER 11, 2018


YOUR COLLEGE NAME
Your Name
Assignment 1: Network Diagram and Critical Path
Edge NODEi to NODEj Expected Time (Days)
A XX to YY #1.5
B YY to 3 11
C 3 to 4 14 X! = !7 X8 = 037
D 3 to 5 #1 M! = |! M8 = 0|6
d 4 to 5 ! 8
E 5 to 6 35
d
F 6 to ZZ 7 C (0!) G (!0) X# = 037
d
G ZZ to 8 41 0 2 3 # M# = 0|6
H ZZ to 9 #1 X0 = 0 A (22) X2 = 22 B (00) D (20) X00 = 038
d
I ZZ to XX0 35 M0 = 0 M2 =22 X3 = 33 H (20) M00 = 0|6
J ZZ to XXXX #1 M3 = 33 | 6 7 X0! = 0|#
d 8 to 9 X| = |! X (3|) X6 = 8# F (7) 0 M (6) M0! = 062
J (20) I (3|)
d 9 to XX0 M| = |! X6 = 8# !
d
K XX0 to XX4 7 X7 = #6
N (20) d
L XXXX to XXYY 14 M7 = #6 X06 = 0#3
M XXYY to XX3 6 0 2 3 M06 = 0#3
d XX3 to XX0 X00 = 007 K (7) X02 = 02! M (0!) X03 = 038 P (30) 6
O (2!)
N XX3 to XX4 #1 M00 = 007 M02 = 02! M03 = 038
O XX3 to XX5 #4 | d
d XX4 to XX5 X0| = 062
P XX5 to XX6 31 M0| = 062 Q (27) 7
Q XX5 to XXZZ #7 X07 = 0#3
d XX6 to XXZZ M07 = 0#3

d = Dummy activity; E = Earliest time to complete the activity; L = Latest time to complete the activity.

The Critical Path of the Project  1 – X – X – X – X – X – X – 12 – X – X – 16; Critical Activities are  A, X, X, X, X, J, K, X, X,


P

Total Project Time  XXX days (decimals have been ignored)

All activities, as highlighted above, which fall on the critical path are important and hence needs to be completed on schedule in order
to avoid project delay. Activities not falling on the critical path are non-critical activities and resources required for these activities can
be shifted without any project delay, unless critical path is changed.
Activity and Expected Time
TIME (In Days)

Edge Activity Description Immediate Predeccesor Optimistic (O) Most Likely (M) Pessimistic (P) Expected Time Variance
A Evaluate the prestige of each potential underwriter. - 16 21 29 22 5
B Select a syndicate of underwriters. A 8 10 15 11 1
C Negotiate the commitment of each member of the syndicate. B 11 13 18 14 1
D Negotiate the spread for each member of the syndicate. B 16 20 32 21 7
Prepare the registration statement, including the proposed financing and information about
E D 26 34 50 35 16
the firm's history, existing business, and plans for the future.
F Submit the registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). E 5 7 10 7 1
G M ake presentations to institutional investors and develop the interest of potential buyers. F 32 40 54 41 13
H Distribute the preliminary prospectus, affectionately termed the red herring. F 18 21 24 21 1
I Calculate the issue price. F 28 35 42 35 5
J Receive deficiency memorandum from the SEC. F 15 19 35 21 11
K Amend the registration statement and submit it to the SEC. J 5 7 10 7 1
L Receive registration confirmation from the SEC. K 10 12 24 14 5
M Confirm that the new issue complies with the “blue sky” laws of each state. G,H,I,L 5 6 9 6 0
N Appoint a register. L 16 21 26 21 3
O Appoint a transfer agent. L 20 24 30 24 3
Issue final prospectus that includes the final offer price and any amendments to all
P M ,N,O 22 30 44 31 13
purchasers offered securities through the mail.
Q Phone interested buyers. M ,N,O 21 26 37 27 7
Critical Path Variance
Critical Path S tandard Deviation
Mean = Critical Path Time

Probability that project will take longer than 210 days (Z>210)
Z = (210 – XXX) / 8 = XX
The value of Z at X.XX is X.XX. We need the area to the right of X.1X, hence the probability is (1 – X.X) = X.XX%
Probability that project will be completed within 182 days (Z<182)
Z = (182 – XXX) / 8 = - X.XX
The value of Z at (-) XXX is XXX. We need the area to the left of XXX, hence the probability is XXX%
Calculation for each non critical activity, the total float, free float, and independent float (days)

Earliest Time Latest Time Earliest Time Latest Time


Activity Duration Start Finish Finish Start
(i, j) (ti j) (Ei ) (Ej) (Li ) (Lj) (Ei + tij) (Ej - tij) Total Float Free Float Independent Float
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) = (3) + (2) (8) = (6) - (2) (9) = (8) - (3) (10) = ((4) - (3)) - (2) (11) = ((4) - (5)) - (2)
3- 4 14 33 47 33 54 47 40 7 0 0
7- 8 41 96 137 96 156 137 115 19 0 0
7- 9 21 96 137 96 156 117 135 39 20 20
7 - 10 35 96 138 96 156 131 121 25 7 7
10 - 14 6 138 159 156 162 144 156 18 15 -3
13 -14 21 138 159 138 162 159 141 3 0 0
15 - 17 27 162 193 162 193 189 166 4 4 4
Forward Pass Method (Earliest Time Calculation)

E1=0
{ }
E14=Max Ei+ti,14 [i=10,13]
E2=E1+t1,2 [t1,2=A=22]=0+22=22
{
=Max E10+t10,14;E13+t13,14 }
E3=E2+t2,3 [t2,3=B=11]=22+11=33 =Max{138+6;138+21}
=Max{144;159}
E4=E3+t3,4 [t3,4=C=14]=33+14=47 =159

{ }
E5=Max Ei+ti,5 [i=3,4] { }
E15=Max Ei+ti,15 [i=13,14]

{
=Max E3+t3,5;E4+t4,5 } {
=Max E13+t13,15;E14+t14,15 }
=Max{33+21;47+0} =Max{138+24;159+0}
=Max{54;47} =Max{162;159}
=54 =162

E6=E5+t5,6 [t5,6=E=35]=54+35=89 E16=E15+t15,16 [t15,16=P=31]=162+31=193

E7=E6+t6,7 [t6,7=F=7]=89+7=96 { }
E17=Max Ei+ti,17 [i=15,16]

E8=E7+t7,8 [t7,8=G=41]=96+41=137 {
=Max E15+t15,17;E16+t16,17 }
=Max{162+27;193+0}
{ }
E9=Max Ei+ti,9 [i=7,8] =Max{189;193}
=193
{
=Max E7+t7,9;E8+t8,9 }
=Max{96+21;137+0}
=Max{117;137}
=137

{ }
E10=Max Ei+ti,10 [i=7,9,13]

{
=Max E7+t7,10;E9+t9,10;E13+t13,10 }
=Max{96+35;137+0;138+0}
=Max{131;137;138}
=138

E11=E7+t7,11 [t7,11=J=21]=96+21=117

E12=E11+t11,12 [t11,12=K=7]=117+7=124

E13=E12+t12,13 [t12,13=L=14]=124+14=138
Backward Pass Method (Latest Time Calculation)

L17=E17=193 L6=L7-t6,7 [t6,7=F=7]=96-7=89

L16=L17-t16,17 [t16,17=d=0]=193-0=193 L5=L6-t5,6 [t5,6=E=35]=89-35=54

{ }
L15=Min Lj-t15,j [j=17,16] L4=L5-t4,5 [t4,5=d=0]=54-0=54

{
=Min L17-t15,17;L16-t15,16 }
=Min{193-27;193-31} { }
L3=Min Lj-t3,j [j=5,4]
=Min{166;162}
=162 {
=Min L5-t3,5;L4-t3,4 }
=Min{54-21;54-14}
L14=L15-t14,15 [t14,15=d=0]=162-0=162 =Min{33;40}
=33
{ }
L13=Min Lj-t13,j [j=15,14,10]
L2=L3-t2,3 [t2,3=B=11]=33-11=22
{
=Min L15-t13,15;L14-t13,14;L10-t13,10 }
=Min{162-24;162-21;156-0} L1=L2-t1,2 [t1,2=A=22]=22-22=0
=Min{138;141;156}
=138

L12=L13-t12,13 [t12,13=L=14]=138-14=124

L11=L12-t11,12 [t11,12=K=7]=124-7=117

L10=L14-t10,14 [t10,14=M=6]=162-6=156

L9=L10-t9,10 [t9,10=d=0]=156-0=156

L8=L9-t8,9 [t8,9=d=0]=156-0=156

{ }
L7=Min Lj-t7,j [j=11,10,9,8]

{
=Min L11-t7,11;L10-t7,10;L9-t7,9;L8-t7,8 }
=Min{117-21;156-35;156-21;156-41}
=Min{96;121;135;115}
=96
Assignment 2: Computer Simulation using @ Risk Tool
Simulation ran for 10,000 iterations
TIME (In Days) US ING @RIS K MODEL
Task
Edge Activity Description Immediate Predeccesor Optimistic (O) Most Likely (M) Pessimistic (P) Expected Time Variance S tart End Variance
Duration
A Evaluate the prestige of each potential underwriter. - 16 21 29 22 5 0 24 24 6
B Select a syndicate of underwriters. A 8 10 15 11 1 24 9 33 2
C Negotiate the commitment of each member of the syndicate. B 11 13 18 14 1 33 15 48 2
D Negotiate the spread for each member of the syndicate. B 16 20 32 21 7 48 16 64 8
Prepare the registration statement, including the proposed financing and information about
E D 26 34 50 35 16 64 38 102 20
the firm's history, existing business, and plans for the future.
F Submit the registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). E 5 7 10 7 1 102 8 111 1
G M ake presentations to institutional investors and develop the interest of potential buyers. F 32 40 54 41 13 111 38 148 17
H Distribute the preliminary prospectus, affectionately termed the red herring. F 18 21 24 21 1 111 21 131 1
I Calculate the issue price. F 28 35 42 35 5 111 35 145 7
J Receive deficiency memorandum from the SEC. F 15 19 35 21 11 111 17 128 12
K Amend the registration statement and submit it to the SEC. J 5 7 10 7 1 128 8 136 1
L Receive registration confirmation from the SEC. K 10 12 24 14 5 136 11 148 5
M Confirm that the new issue complies with the “blue sky” laws of each state. G,H,I,L 5 6 9 6 0 148 6 154 1
N Appoint a register. L 16 21 26 21 3 148 21 169 4
O Appoint a transfer agent. L 20 24 30 24 3 148 26 174 4
Issue final prospectus that includes the final offer price and any amendments to all
P M ,N,O 22 30 44 31 13 174 24 198 17
purchasers offered securities through the mail.
Q Phone interested buyers. M ,N,O 21 26 37 27 7 174 28 202 9
Critical Path Variance Critical Path Variance
Critical Path S tandard Deviation Critical Path S tandard Deviation
Mean = Critical Path Time Mean = Critical Path Time

Expected project completion time  XXX days; Standard Deviation  XX

Probability that project will take longer than 196 days (Z>196)
Z = (196 – XX) / 9 = -X.XX
The value of Z at -XXX is XXX. We need the area to the right of – XXX, hence the probability is XXX%
Probability that project will done within 168 days (Z<=168)
Z = (168 – XXX) / 9 = -XXX
The value of Z at -XX is XXXX. We need the area to the left of -XXX, hence the probability is XXX.
Please note detail output of @Risk Simulation is attached.