PP 7767/09/2011(028730)

马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

MARKET DATELINE

每周技术观 点 2010 年 10 月 11 日

原产品和外汇
原棕油有望出现新技术突破…

主要原产品的图表表现：
主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （ 原

图 1∶
∶轻质原油期货
轻质原油期货（
期货（周线图）
周线图）
油）

♦ 上周，美国轻质原油期货期货（US Light Sweet Crude

Oil）展开一轮涨势，并一度于上周四写下 84.43 美元高
点。

♦ 惟 在 一 些 套 利 活 动 下 ， 原 油上 周 以 一 根 “ 黄 昏 星 型 态 ”
（evening star）报收。这显示原油可能会在本周回调。

♦ 虽然如此，我们相信它将能守在 78 美元关口和 40 周移动

平均线（即 77.6 美元）以上。换言之，我们依然看俏原油
的后市展望。

♦ 一旦买盘动力恢复，它将会重新上冲至 87 美元阻力线。下
一道障碍线落在 100 美元。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

原棕油）
图 2∶
∶原棕油期货（
原棕油期货（周线图）
周线图）

♦ 原棕油期货（CPO）上周大幅开低于 2,655 令吉，以确认前

周所形成的“上吊线”（hangman）。

♦ 不过在获得 10 周移动平均线（即 2,650 令吉）的扶持下，

原棕油便在接下来开始反弹，并恰好报收于 2,760 令吉阻力
线。

♦ 技术而言，从它所取得的一根“看涨抱线型态”（bullish
engulfing）看来，加上动力指标也趋升，原棕油料将在本周
冲破 2,760 令吉。

♦ 一旦冲破 2,500 令吉至 2,760 令吉之间区域，它将会朝向

3,000 令吉至 3,300 令吉之间阻力区前进。

♦ 其扶持力料将位于 10 周移动平均线（即 2,650 令吉）和

2,760 令吉当前水平。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

Page 1 of 3
特定外汇的图表解读：
特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶
∶令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）
令吉）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 与其跌破 3.07 扶持线，令吉兑美元汇率上周却掀起一轮技

术反弹，并在图表上形成一根“看涨抱线型态”。

♦ 上周，令吉兑美元回软，并收 3.11。

♦ 从它形成一根利多白烛和动力解读反转看来，该汇率料将在
本周初走高。

♦ 不过，只要它没有冲破 3.16 主要水平和 35 周移动平均线

（即 3.22）以上，那么我们将继续看俏令吉的技术展望。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们预料，一旦上扬动力开始转弱，那么该汇率
将会在近日内回退。下一道水平为 3.00 心理水平。

图 4∶
∶日元兑美元
日元兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 日元兑美元
日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）
日元）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 一如我们之前所预测一样，日元兑美元汇率继续往下走低，
其中该汇率以另一根利淡黑烛收 82.07。

♦ 明显地，该汇率已确认一道利淡趋势，并以“三只乌鸦” 形
态 （ three black crows ） 返 回 至 下 降 趋 势 阻 力 线
（Downtrend Resistance Line 或 DRL）（即 83.8）以
下。

♦ 该利淡形态和疲弱的动力指标显示，日元兑美元将会在本周
进一步走强。

♦ 我们继续看俏日元的技术展望，并预料日元兑美元将走强至
超过 15 年高峰，即 79.8。

♦ 目前的图表阻力为 87。

图 5∶
∶欧元兑美元
欧元兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 欧元兑
欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）
欧元）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 周五，欧元兑美元汇率于上周五一连第 4 周持续走低，同时
也确认跌破了 0.73 重要图表支撑水平。

♦ 从图表看来，随着它在形成一个“三只乌鸦”形态后再度划
出一根新利淡黑烛，该汇率料将在近日进一步走低。

♦ 这显示欧元兑美元有望在本周进一步走强至 0.695。

♦ 我们认为，若美元无法在近日冲破 0.73，那么欧元的多头
趋势将会延续。

♦ 展望未来，较强的目标为 0.695 至 0.66，至于当前图表阻

力为 0.73。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
）
图 6∶
∶美元指数（
美元指数（周线图）
周线图）
♦ 在跟进卖压动力的拖累下，美元指数（DXY）一再在过去 7
周来形成第 6 根利淡黑烛，并于周五收 77.48。

♦ 上周，美元指数已丢失了 78 重要扶持点。

♦ 随着随机指标（stochastic oscillators）转入“超卖区”，
该指数料将在近期内维持疲弱。

♦ 因此，我们预测它将会在近日内进一步下调至 74 至 76 之
间。

♦ 为了启动技术反弹的希望，该指数必须以一根显著的反转多
头蜡烛回升至 78 水平以上。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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