POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL OCTOBER 15th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Three Wards To Watch
15th October 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of three surveys conducted in the wards
of Don Valley West, Etobicoke North, and
Scarborough North that were conducted
between October 10th and 11th among
residents of these wards, aged 18 years of
age or older. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled
by Mainstreet Research from various
commerically available sources and random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error and sample size for each
survey is as follows:
Don Valley West: n=609, +/- 3.97%
Etobicoke North: n=423, +/- 4.76%
Scarborough North: n=458, +/- 4.58%
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BURNSIDE AND FORD NARROWLY AHEAD IN THEIR COUNCIL RACES

15 October 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Jon Burnside and Michael Ford have narrow leads
in their races over fellow incumbents Jaye Robinson and Vincent Crisanti, respectively.

Those are the findings of a series of new Mainstreet Research surveys of Toronto wards in
the lead up to the October 22nd election. The polls were conducted on October 10 and 11th.

“The respective leads held by Burnside and Ford are both with the margin of error and
indicates that both of these contests between incumbents are too close to call at this
moment,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Burnside is in a
better position in Don Valley West than Ford in Etobicoke Centre, but no one should be
surprised if either Robinson or Crisanti, or both, end up winning on October 22nd”.

Among decided voters in Don Valley West, Burnside leads Robinson by 3.4%. While in
Etobicoke North, Ford has a 2.8% lead over Crisanti.

Scarborough North was also polled, and is one of the few wards where an incumbent is not
running. In that race, recently retired councillor Chin Lee’s former constituency assistant
Maggie Chi has 24.9% support among decided voters, while local activists Ashwani Bhardwaj
and Cynthia Lai have 18.7% and 13.8%, respectively.

But Maggi notes that that there is a lot of apathy and voter confusion in Scarborough North.

“Nearly 50% of Scarborough North residents say that they are undecided with just over a
week left and among all voters, more respondents chose ‘another candidate’ over second-
place candidate Bhardwaj,” said Maggi.

“This tells us that Scarborough North voters really do not know who their candidates for
councillor are,” continued Maggi. “Scarborough North will likely lead the way for low voter
turnout among the Toronto wards because of this.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters All Voters
Don Decided
Valley West Voters

4%
5.1%

23.7% 23.7%

35.9% 35.9%

47.2%
2.7% 2.7%
All Voters All Voters Decided Voters
3.8% 3.8%

43.8%

33.9% 33.9%

Jon Burnside Jaye Robinson Jon Streker

Nikola Burnside Jaye Robinson
Another Candidate NikolaJon
Streker
Burnside Another
JayeCandidate
Robinson Nikola Streker Another Candidate

Undecided Undecided

All Voters All Voters Decided

Etobicoke North Voters

16.9%
24% 24%
24.2% 24.2%

31.7%

9.8%

All Voters All Voters Decided Voters

5.2% 5.2%

13% 13%

7.1%

7% 7%
26.5% 26.5% 34.5%

Vincent Crisanti Naiima Farah VincentFord

Michael Crisanti Shirish
Naiima
PatelFarah Michael FordCrisanti
Vincent Shirish Patel
Naiima Farah Michael Ford Shirish Patel

Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate

Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters
Scarborough North
8.5%

13.3%

49.1%
All Voters 7.1%

2.7%

5%

4.4%
Decided Voters
9.9%

All Voters
Ashwani Bhardwaj
18% Maggie Chi Cynthia Lai18.7% Mahboob Mian

Neethan Saba Felicia Samuel Another Candidate Undecided

8.5%

13.3%
8.9%

Decided Voters
49.1%
All Voters 7.1%

24.9%
10.3%
2.7%

5%

5.5% 4.4%

13.8% 9.9%

Ashwani Bhardwaj Maggie Chi Cynthia Lai Mahboob Mian

Ashwani Bhardwaj Maggie Chi Cynthia Lai Mahboob Mian
Neethan Saba Felicia Samuel Another Candidate Undecided
Neethan Saba Felicia Samuel Another Candidate
 Breakouts
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Don Valley West
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Jon Burnside 35.9% 36.6% 35% 43.3% 29.6% 34.7% 35.5%
Jaye Robinson 33.9% 37.3% 29.9% 33.3% 22% 42.9% 38.5%
Nikola Streker 3.8% 5.5% 1.8% 5% 6.1% 1.6% 2.2%
Another Candidate 2.7% 2% 3.5% - 6.2% 2.4% 2.2%
Undecided 23.7% 18.6% 29.7% 18.3% 36.1% 18.4% 21.7%
Unweighted Frequency 609 221 388 27 59 180 343
Weighted Frequency 609 331 278 166 157 149 137

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Jon Burnside 47.2% 45% 49.8% 52.9% 46.5% 43.2% 45.4%
Jaye Robinson 43.8% 45.3% 42% 41.3% 34.2% 51.7% 49.1%
Nikola Streker 5.1% 7.1% 2.7% 5.8% 9.2% 2% 2.8%
Another Candidate 4% 2.7% 5.5% - 10.1% 3.1% 2.7%
Unweighted Frequency 474 174 300 21 36 147 270
Weighted Frequency 474 257 217 129 122 116 107
 Etobicoke North
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Vincent Crisanti 24.2% 27.5% 21.2% 21.1% 20.5% 21.3% 38.8%
Naiima Farah 5.2% 3.7% 6.5% 7.9% 4.5% 4.7% 1.9%
Michael Ford 26.5% 32.6% 20.8% 15.8% 31.8% 32.3% 30.4%
Shirish Patel 7% 4% 9.9% 10.5% 4.5% 7.9% 3.3%
Another Candidate 13% 15.2% 11% 21% 18.2% 4.7% 2.8%
Undecided 24% 17% 30.5% 23.6% 20.4% 29.1% 22.9%
Unweighted Frequency 423 179 244 38 44 127 214
Weighted Frequency 423 203 220 137 106 103 78

(decided and voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Vincent Crisanti 31.7% 33% 30.4% 26.8% 25.8% 30.2% 50.1%
Naiima Farah 7.1% 4.5% 9.5% 10.8% 5.8% 7% 2.4%
Michael Ford 34.5% 39.5% 29.9% 19.8% 40% 44.8% 39.3%
Shirish Patel 9.8% 4.9% 14.3% 14.6% 6.3% 11.1% 4.4%
Another Candidate 16.9% 18.1% 15.9% 28% 22.2% 6.8% 3.8%
Unweighted Frequency 319 145 174 29 35 90 165
Weighted Frequency 319 153 166 103 80 78 59

Scarborough North
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Ashwani Bhardwaj 8.5% 9.1% 7.9% 13.7% 10.3% 4.9% 2.2%
Maggie Chi 13.3% 14.1% 12.5% 15.4% 9.2% 13.6% 17.2%
Cynthia Lai 7.1% 6.5% 7.7% 2.5% 7% 10.2% 9.8%
Mahboob Mian 2.7% 0.7% 4.6% - 6.8% 0.7% 2.3%
Neethan Saba 5% 7.7% 2.5% 7.9% 3.4% 5.1% 3.4%
Felicia Samuel 4.4% 2.6% 6.1% - 3.2% 6.3% 10.8%
Another Candidate 9.9% 15.8% 4.6% 10.3% 10.4% 11.7% 5.9%
Undecided 49.1% 43.5% 54.1% 50.1% 49.8% 47.4% 48.5%
Unweighted Frequency 458 208 250 33 50 131 244
Weighted Frequency 458 218 240 120 146 114 78

(decided and voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Ashwani Bhardwaj 18.7% 17.4% 19.8% 29.8% 25.1% 8.4% 4.4%
Maggie Chi 24.9% 23% 26.5% 29.8% 15.1% 26.4% 33.3%
Cynthia Lai 13.8% 10.9% 16.5% 6.9% 16.1% 16.6% 16.1%
Mahboob Mian 5.5% 1.3% 9.4% - 13.6% 1.6% 4.4%
Neethan Saba 10.3% 15.3% 5.7% 16% 8% 10% 6%
Felicia Samuel 8.9% 5.5% 12% - 4.5% 14.2% 23.1%
Another Candidate 18% 26.6% 10.2% 17.6% 17.6% 22.6% 12.6%
Unweighted Frequency 235 119 116 17 25 68 125
Weighted Frequency 235 96 105 52 64 50 34
Questionnaire
On October 22 2018, you (Scarborough North -
will have a chance to vote first seven responses
in your municipal election. randomized)
Which candidate for City Ashwani Bhardwaj
Council would you vote, or Maggie Chi
are leaning towards voting Cynthia Lai
for, for if an election were Sheraz Khan
held today? Mahboob Mian
(Don Valley West - first five Neethan Saba
responses randomized) Felicia Samuel
Jon Burnside Another Candidate
Minh Le Undecided
Tanweer Khan
Jaye Robinson What is your gender?
Nikola Streker Male
Another Candidate Female
Undecided
What is your age group?
(Etobicoke North - first four 18 to 34 years of age
responses randomized) 35 to 49 years of age
Vincent Crisanti 50 to 64 years of age
Naiima Farah 65 years of age or older
Michael Ford
Shirish Patel
Another Candidate
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of three surveys conducted in the wards of
Don Valley West, Etobicoke North, and Scarborough-North that were conducted between
October 10th and 11th among residents of these wards, aged 18 years of age or older. The
survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of the three wards surveyed.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error at the 95% confidence level and sample size for each survey is as follows:
Don Valley West: n=609, +/- 3.97%, Etobicoke North: n=423, +/- 4.76%, Scarborough North:
n=458, +/- 4.58%. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. Wherever a candidate received less than 1.5%,
his or her estimates were folded into the “another candidate” column.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.