1

Incorporating Grid Expansion Calculation Algorithms in the TIMES model, for improved
Operation under wide-scale RES Penetration

G. Giannakidis1, K. Tigas1, C. Vournas2, P. Georgilakis2, A. Lehtilla3, A. Kanudia4,

D. Dimitroulas2, J. Mantzaris1, N. Sakellaridis1, P. Siakkis1, J. Morbee5

1
Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving, Greece
2
National Technical University of Athens, Greece
3
VTT, Finland
4
KANORS EMR, India
5
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium

1. Background

TIMES is a partial equilibrium model generator for the temporal evolution of an energy system, which
is modelled as a Reference Energy System. Main inputs in TIMES are the evolution of the economy
resulting in scenarios of useful energy demand projections and technology roadmaps including specific
costs and efficiencies for a time period of several decades. The TIMES model is not able to consider in
detail the various non-linear aspects of a power system. It includes a rather elementary approach for
dispatching, transmission and non dispatchable RES generation. As a result, the optimal technology
mix computed by TIMES may not be optimal when considering the geographically specific
transmission grid investments resulting from that technology mix. In addition, RES investments
economic analysis should normally include costs related to transmission grid expansions necessary for
penetration of geographical areas with a high potential of renewables and costs related to balancing
units required due to variations of renewable generation namely pumped storage plants and gas
turbines. The combined problem of optimum power systems generation and transmission is a rather
challenging complex task. Load forecast, generation expansion and route preference are of significant
importance in transmission expansion planning which includes the uncertainty of future configurations
of the entire interconnected areas. To find solutions within a reasonable amount of calculations the
analysis can include a simple linear flow estimation of the transmission network (e.g. DC load flow)
which may be followed by AC power flow and transient stability analysis to further reduce the
alternatives and to focus on the most promising configurations. For any candidate scenario, load flow
analysis can be performed in order to examine the adequacy of system transfer capability (detecting
overloadings of transmission lines), verify voltage level of system substations and finally determine
any network reinforcement needed (transmission lines, capacitor banks etc.) for several system loading
conditions. To obtain an accurate least cost solution for RES penetration under a number of energy and
environmental policy constraints it is necessary to develop geographical databases with RES potential
which will be connected to the TIMES model describing areas including classes of the same RES
technology with different costs. A TIMES model solution will then prioritize different classes of RES
investments according to their real cost which would incorporate balancing units and storage units
costs, grid expansion and connection costs together with utilization factors of RES in specific areas. To
this end, a system of RES generation areas has to be established and a probabilistic approach can be
used for calculating the expected energy production from each RES generation area incorporating all
relevant statistics. Integration of dispersed generation plants into grids must be examined from the
network point of view as the interconnection scheme affects both the investment cost and the operation
of the power grid. It is common practice in transmission systems operation to guarantee the smooth
system operation at both normal (N) and emergency conditions (N-1). More specifically, the
transmission system must be adequate to securely transfer the power demanded at any substation while
the voltage levels should not exceed specified limits. Modelling in TIMES should incorporate all
relevant cost parameters and should be related to network analysis. An interactive procedure has to be
established between TIMES and NEPLAN, a network analysis software. TIMES modelling has to
include a multi-regional approach were regions would be related to big consumption centers such as
cities or industrial activities. In addition, areas of electricity generation from Renewable Energy
Sources with similar characteristics can be modelled having as main parameter the cost of the
interconnection of the area with the existing grid. Solutions of TIMES will produce loads and
generators installed capacity data that can be used as input in the NEPLAN load flow analysis problem.
However, an overview of the spatial distribution of the load substations along with typical participation
factors of each substation and an economic dispatch algorithm are required prior to this step to produce
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instances of the system for load flows to be studied. An iterative procedure is be established for
improvement and convergence of the solution. After a few iterations convergence can be achieved if
reinforcement costs for overloading do not change significantly between successive iterations. The
result of the present work is to integrate TIMES-based energy system modelling, with load flow
analysis of the electricity grid so that a “soft-link” between the TIMES model and the NEPLAN
simulation tool is established. The integrated tool is capable of computing the least-cost solution of an
entire electricity system considering both generation investments and transmission investments.

2. Simulating the grid into TIMES

In order to include the expansion cost of the transmission grid into TIMES, we incorporate a linear
(DC) power flow algorithm and resolve a rather aggregated form of the transmission grid simulated in
a regional TIMES. Transmission grid expansion may be a consequence either of connecting areas with
significant potential for electricity generation such as RES, coal, etc., or areas with significant increase
of generation and/or demand.

Figure 1 : DC Power Flow simulation in regional TIMES

The establishment of a regional TIMES model is implemented as depicted in Figure 1. In this figure,
R1, R2, R3, R4 are regions in the multi-regional model, interconnected by the transmission grid.
In principle one can make a distinction between shallow connections depicted in Figure 2 and deep
connections depicted in Figure 3. Shallow connections are generally related to connections of wider
areas with significant RES potential or other resources (coal, lignite, etc.) to power transmission grid.
Deep connections refer to internal (within a TIMES region) grid infrastructure which is related to
secure and reliable transmission of electric power.
The present methodology is based on soft linking between TIMES and NEPLAN models where the
optimization of the power system expansion (generation and transmission) is incorporated in TIMES
using parameters related to N-1 security analysis calculated in NEPLAN.
The power flow analysis in TIMES is at the nodal level. The lines of the grid are provided in the form
of a susceptance matrix bij and the loads and generations injected in the nodes are calculated from the
internal TIMES solution. A number of interventions are implemented in TIMES in order to secure
compatibility of the DC power flow model of TIMES with the NEPLAN model. TIMES is calculating
the necessary transmission system investments required for a given expansion of the generating system,
however the cost function of the transmission technology incorporated in TIMES is continuous.
Although there is a possibility to incorporate the transmission system investments expansion into the
Mixed Integer Programming solvers of TIMES, a rather long run time period of the model occurred in
such a case. The geometry of the grid is provided as input in TIMES in the form of the susceptance
matrix B.
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Figure 2 : Shallow Connection

Figure 3 : Deep Connection reinforcement

As far as the TIMES model is concerned, the scope behind the present effort is to incorporate a grid
topology and DC power flow analysis in TIMES, to dynamically allocate injections in each node of the
simulated transmission grid, related to generations and loads calculated and finally to incorporate
restrictions related to transmission lines congestions and overloading calculated in both TIMES (N
security analysis) or in NEPLAN (N-1 security analysis).
It is worthy to note that a main problem envisaged here is to define which calculations will be
performed in each model in order to ensure that the TIMES model solution is providing the correct
transmission expansion planning for a given power system development.

3. DC Power Flow equations into TIMES

The general form of the DC power flow equations incorporated into TIMES are as follows:
For every bus (node) k:

     , k=1,N (1)
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or


    , (2)
 

and
 

  ,  , ∙ (   ) (3)

   

where :
N: the total number of nodes
Mi : the number of nodes connected with bus (node) i,
Gi : active power injected into node i by generators
Li : active power consumed in node i by loads
Pi : power injected into node i
Pij : branch flow between nodes i and j
Bij : susceptance of the branch connecting nodes i and j
δi: voltage phase angles of node i with respect to a reference angle

Rewriting the nodal active power balance equations, in matrix notation, we have:

[ ] ∙    (4)

[Bf] being the flow admittance matrix and δ the nodal voltage angle vector. In addition, the branch
power flow equation is:
 ∙    (5)

where   ,

solving for δ we have :

 ∙  ∙   ⇒  ∙    (6)

for branch i,j :

,  , ∙ (, / , ) ∙ "   # (7)

where :
li,j : the length of the line i,j
(, / , ) : susceptance per km
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Note that Bi,j in TIMES is the equivalent susceptance of all the parallel circuits between nodes i and j.
Due to power transfer limits of the lines we have:

%&'
,  $ , ≤0 (8)

%&'
where , is the (constant) limit of the line and ε is the loading factor of corridor ij.

Power transfer limits include thermal, voltage drop and stability limits. For DC power flow studies
these limits are usually approximated as functions of line length and surge impedance loading using the
St. Clair curves [6].

In case transmission expansion is required, i.e.

%&'
if ,  $ , ≥0,
%&'
then an additional circuit with ∆, is introduced, giving:

(9)
%&' %&'
, ≤ $(, + ∆, )

where ε is the loading factor of the corridor ij.

The additional connection cost for investing in a new line between nodes i,j is :

./ %&'
-,  -, ∙ ∆, ∙ , (10)

where :
-, is the linear unitary cost for the additional circuit used in line i,j in Euro/(MW.km) and
./
-, is the cost for constructing a new circuit in the ij corridor
lij : length of line i,j

4. Allocation of additional generation and loads

Equations (1) to (10) are incorporated into TIMES together with the susceptance matrix [B] and an
algorithm for calculating and allocating the injections vector  which is a result of the TIMES solution.
An initial network topology in the form of matrix [B] and vector  is established in TIMES, with an
allocation of generations and loads per node and per region.
In the context of the TIMES resolution one has to determine the set of necessary equations for
calculating the injections of the additional generation and loads in each time slice of TIMES.
During the relevant procedure , we distribute generation and load of every region to nodes, based on
s s
E times EGtimes
linear equations and we formulate power flow scenarios. , ,r ,l
are the typical variables of
,r ,u

TIMES which correspond to the total energy consumption of a region r and a type of load l for a time
slice s, while the second variable represents the total energy generation of a unit of type u at a region r,
for a time slice s. Both variables are expressed in terms of energy.

In particular, the load distribution per load type in a region r is:

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s
Etimes
Ltimes ,r ,l =
s , r ,l
(11)
aS ⋅ 8760

which is the load (MW) of region r, of type l and of time slice s and αs is the portion of time slice s
within a year.

Load distribution to every node of the network is calculated through the following equation:

Lstimes ,r ,l
Ln ,r ,l = L0,n ⋅ wn ,l
s
(12)
L0,r ,l

L0,n
is the load of node n at the reference year (year 0)

L0,r ,l
is the total load (all nodes) of type l at region r at the reference year (year 0)
w n ,l
is the weight factor (expected value) for load of type l at node n

Eventually, the total load of node n, of region r in time slice s is the sum of the results of (12) for every
type of load:

Lsn ,r = ∑ Lsn ,r ,l (13)

∀l

Using equations (5) to (7), we obtain:

Lstimes ,r ,l s
L0,n ⋅ wn ,l Etimes ,r ,l L0,n ⋅ wn ,l
Lsn ,r = ∑ Lsn ,r ,l = ∑ L0,n ⋅ wn ,l =∑ =∑ s
Etimes (14)
∀l ∀l L0,r ,l ∀l L0,r ,l aS ⋅ 8760 ∀l L0,r ,l aS ⋅ 8760 ,r ,l

The Load of every node of the network is a linear combination of the total load of region r for every
load type:

Lsn ,r = ∑ f n ,l E times
s
,r ,l (15)
∀l

The generation distribution is:

s
EGtimes
Gtimes ,r ,u =
s ,r ,u
(16)
aS ⋅ 8760

s
Gtimes ,r ,u
is the power generation distribution (MW) of region r and unit type u, and time slice s:
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Gns,r ,u = vn,u ,r Gtimes

s
,r ,u
(17)

v n ,u , r
is the distribution factor for node n, region r, and unit type u

EGns,r ,u
is the generation of type u, of region r and node n according to the weight factor ν and the total
generation on node n of region r is:

G ns,r = ∑ G ns,r ,u (18)

∀u

The total generation of load n is then :

s
EGtimes vn,u ,r
Gn ,r = ∑ Gn ,r ,u = ∑ vn,u ,r Gtimes ,r ,u = ∑ vn,u ,r
s s s ,r ,u
=∑ s
EGtimes (19)
∀u ∀u ∀u aS ⋅ 8760 ∀u aS ⋅ 8760 ,r ,u

The generation of every node n of region r is the sum of generations of region r for every unit type u:

G ns,r = ∑ g n ,u EG times
s
,r ,u (20)
∀u

It is obvious that for each time slice s and for the different nodes n in regions r, the vector P can be
formulated with elements .,01

.,0
1
 1.,0 for the equations (1) to (10).

5. Algorithm implemented in NEPLAN

If we have N-1 security violation in NEPLAN we start from the first time slice and we stop at the year
(or other time period) where we have the first violation of N-1 security criterion. We calculate all time
slices of the time period in question.
In NEPLAN we have individual circuits, while in TIMES we have corridors of right-of-way (which, in
general, are composed of multiple circuits, as Figure 4 shows). The overloading of the circuit (which
we will compute in NEPLAN), has to be referred to the overloading of the corridor (in order to be used
by TIMES).

Let us suppose that for the m contingency (i.e., the contingency of circuit number m ), we have
overloading of the circuit number k .
The overload indicator Lkm is computed as follows:

 S km
 , if Skm ≥ Skmax
Lkm =  S kmax (21)
 0 , if Skm < S max
 km
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where:
Lkm : overloading indicator of circuit k under the contingency of circuit m
Skm : loading of circuit k under the contingency of circuit m
S kmax : upper limit of loading (capacity) of circuit k
For each overloaded circuit and for each contingency, compute the indicators I m and J k as follows:

nlines
I m = ∑ Lkm (22)
k =1
ncont
J k = ∑ Lkm
m =1
where:
nlines : total number of circuits
ncont : total number of contingencies
In practice, indicator I m is the total overloading that appears in all circuits under contingency m .
Similarly, indicatorJ j is the total overloading of circuits k under all contingencies.
Compute the circuit j with the maximum J and the value of the maximum J as follows:

J j = max { J k }
k (23)

Compute the contingency i with the maximum I and the value of the maximum I as follows:

I i = max { I m }
m (24)

There are two cases:

1. Case 1: J j ≥ I i , which means that in this case we have to reinforce the circuit j , which we
suppose that belongs to corridor c (Figure 4). In this case, the new value of ε for the
corridor c is computed as follows:

ε old ε old
ε new
c = c
= c
(25)
L ji max{ L jm }
m

old
where ε c ε that is initialized in step 1 of the algorithm and
is the old (previous) value of
L ji is the maximum overloading of the circuit j for all contingencies, i.e.,

where L ji denotes the overloading of circuit j during the contingency i .

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nc
Pc ≤ ε cnew ⋅ Pcmax

nc
Pcmax = ∑ Pjmax
Pji = L ji ⋅ Pjmax > Pjmax j =1

L ji = max{ L jm }
m

L ji > 1 ⇒ Pji > Pjmax

Figure 4 : A corridor c with nc circuits, where the circuit j presents the highest
overloading L ji over all contingencies m , which means that the circuit j has to be
reinforced.

2. Case 2: J j < I i , which means that in this case we have to avoid contingency i , i.e., we have
to reinforce the corridor c in which the circuit i belongs, the outage of which results in the
contingency i . In this case, in order to enforce TIMES to add a second circuit in the corridor
c (in fact in order to increase the transfer capacity of corridor c ), the new value of ε for the
corridor c is computed as follows:

ε old
ε new
c = c (26)
2

6. Results and Conclusions

Modelling in TIMES includes the incorporation of DC load flow linear equations (7)-(16). Equations
(17)-(26) are used for calculating the distribution of new generation and new loads when resolving (7)-
(16). The same grid simulation is adopted into both TIMES and NEPLAN. In that case DC power flow
equations are executed into TIMES and the corresponding results such as calculated loads, injections
and Pijmax are used as input into NEPLAN. Based on that input NEPLAN is formulating the grid
topology corresponding to the TIMES model result. N-1 security analysis is then performed to define
the εij coefficient of equation (14) for each corridor. The εij coefficient represents into TIMES the
restriction of the use of a line ij in order to avoid overloading under N-1 security analysis. The εij
coefficients determined into NEPLAN are incorporated back to TIMES which is then calculating new
necessary transmission investments in the new iteration. Convergence is achieved when there is no
need for new transmission investments.
The methodology was applied in the simplified electricity network comprised of sixteen nodes with
twenty two interconnecting lines. The expansion of the system in a time period from 2010 to 2050 was
modelled into TIMES together the grid load flow algorithm, using two alternative formulations: a)
continuous investments option for the grid lines (no-Mixed Integer Programming) and b) discrete
investment options for the grid lines (with MIP), in order to examine the effect of the two approaches
on the result. Figures 5 and 6 present the required new investments for the grid lines in time horizon of
the model. As can be seen the MIP approach leads to a gradual increase of the grid lines capacities. The
increase in computational time between the MIP and no-MIP calculations for this simplified grid was
rather small, but it is expected to be much higher in more complex models.
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The present methodology which is incorporated in the TIMES model is providing a significant
improvement for the calculations related to the energy technology investment costs where the
additional costs related to grid expansion are calculated. Due to the fact that these costs can be
important decision parameters in the case of a wide scale penetration of Renewable Technologies it is
obvious that energy policy scenarios results are significantly improved through the present work.

3.50
No MIP GX-N03-N04
3.00
GX-N04-N05

2.50 GX-N04-N06

GX-N05-N08
2.00
GW

GX-N08-N09
1.50 GX-N09-N12

1.00

0.50

0.00
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 5 : Transmission Investments cost without Mixed Integer Programming (GX-Ni-Ni is the grid
line connecting node i with node j).

3.50 GX-N03-N04
MIP
GX-N04-N05
3.00
GX-N04-N06
2.50 GX-N05-N08

GX-N08-N09
2.00
GW

GX-N09-N12
1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 6 : Transmission Investments cost with Mixed Integer Programming (GX-Ni-Ni is the grid line
connecting node i with node j).
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7. REFERENCES

[1] M. Korpås, L. Warland, J. O. G. Tande, K. Uhlen, K. Purchala, and, S.Wagemans, “Grid modelling
and power system data”, TradeWind report, D3.2, 2007, www.tradewind.eu
[2] D. Huang “Dynamic PTDF Implementation in the Market Model”, Delft University, Master Thesis,
2011
[3] A.D James Stiel, “Modelling Liberalized Power Markets”, Centre for Energy Policy and
Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, 2011
[4] Independent Transmission System Operator (ADMIE) - Ten Year Network Development Plan
(TYNDP). Available on line (in Greek) at http://www.admie.gr/en/transmission-system/system-
development/tsdp-ten-year-network-development-plan-tyndp/
[5] Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE). Tariffs for new connections to the transmission system.
Approved by RAE, Decision No. 2/2007. Available on line at http://www.admie.gr/en/transmission-
system/tariffs-for-new-connections/
[6] R. D. Dunlop, R. Gutman, P.P. Marchenko, “Analytical Development of Loadability Characteristics
for EHV and UHV Transmission Lines”, IEEE Trans. On PAS, v. 98, April 1979.

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Institute of Energy and Transport, Joint
Research Centre, through the contract “The integration of TIMES-based energy system modelling with
electricity grid modelling” No 109230.