CVL300

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND IMPACT

ASSESSMENT
Lecture 11:
PREDICTION; PHYSICAL AND NATURAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS
 Physical and Biological Impact Prediction

• physical and biological impact prediction is

essential for EIA.
• Our knowledge of physical and biological
responses is severely limited
• prefer simple linear “models” but physical and
biological systems are normally non-linear
 Predictive Techniques
• Mechanistic models (mathematical
equations) – Deterministic, stochastic
• Statistical models
• Mass balance models
• Experimental techniques
• Analog models
• Judgement techniques
 Highway 11 crossing of river near North Bay
• impact of highway bridge crossing of stream with
aquatic habitat
- aquatic “in-stream” population;
- mouth of stream (100 m) pickerel spawning
area might be impacted by siltation.
• predict causal link between
- road construction and in-stream population
fish spawning area effects;
- road runoff and instream population fish
spawning area effects.
• Major impact factors are sediments, temperature,
and contaminants
 Models of Cause-Effect
• Spawning in early spring – sediment loads
elevated and critical threshold amount is
critical for prediction of impacts.
• Critical level of sediments at which
Pickerel spawning is impaired
• Time increase in stream due to wood
cover removal and warmer road runoff
Challenges of Predictive Models
• All rational impact predictions should be based on either
explicit (detailed mechanics) or implicit (guess/mental)
models
• complex natural systems are very difficult to model
because
- many redundant parts possess the same functions;
- many pathways of cause and effect;
- only some key and non-key species and spatial
relations are essential;
- discontinuous change is the threshold, change is
sudden and expected, and chaotic change is remote
effects.
 Physical Models
• Dispersion fate of contaminants in water
e.g. dissolved oxygen concentration
downstream of organic dischargers in rivers
• Dispersion contaminants in air
Gaussian air contaminant diffusion/dispersion
models for emission sources. The plume rise is
a function of temperature, wind speed, and
atmospheric stability.
• Dispersion fate of contaminants in soil
e.g. spill movement in soil unsaturated zones
 Biological models
• Simple biological models are typically
based on first-order biological effects
given a physical change.
• Simple mechanistic models assume that
the system behaviour is linear and the
impacts are the difference between natural
system behaviour without and with the
project.
• Natural variations are typically cyclical.
 Non-linear model (long
(shortcycle)
cycle)
Without
project
#
Of
Species With project

Time

#
Of
Species

Time
#
Of
Species

Time
 Domain of Stability

Domain of
stability
Upper
Upper

#
Of
Species

Project

Lower Lower
Bad
 Appropriate Predictive Models
• Most EAs assume (a) linear (static) process; (b)
time variation is not a factor; and (c) mean
measures of ecosystem behaviour is sufficient.
• Urban systems may be low species diversity and
stable. One-time linear analysis is sufficient.
• If natural systems are dynamic, we need time
series of system variables to measure
thresholds and limits to stability.
Example:
Toxic metal
contaminants
and species
survival in
Gussum
Sweden
Example: Acidification and fish population
Example: Clear cut and species change of forestry

• Breeding birds of 3 mature hardwood

forest plots were impacted by 3 adjacent
clear cuts after 3-5 years from cutting.
• Although all bird species will not be
exterminated, specific shift in species
profile is anticipated.
• These cuts favour meadow and grass
dwelling species and eliminate hardwood
mature forest species.
Example: Spruce budworm population in New
Brunswick
Reduced the peak by
spraying

# Much higher
budworms than starting
level

Time

# 18 year natural interval

budworms without spraying

Time
 Types of Ecosystem Models
• Black box
• Grey box
• White box
 Black Box Models

Reduced
biological activity,
Black Box ??? diversity
Forest Clearing
Species changes
(moose to deer)
 Grey Box Models

Nutrient; DO reduction;
Physical Species decline;
habitat Diversity reduction
reduction;
Metallic
contamination
 White Box Models
• identify all major components that play a
basic role to support ecosystem activities.
• Key species and relationships are
assumed to be known and modelled
quantitatively.
• Cumulative and synergistic effects are
accounted for in the integrated models.
 EA Experiments

Pre-project Post-project
observation observation

Test system X Impact

stressor

Control No Normal
system stressor System
change
Past Now Future
 General Recommendations
• keep guessing, trial or error plus
observation, wait for evidence to
accumulate, and rely on past experience
to make predictions.
• “When in doubt, stay out”
• Every attempt has to be made to model
impacts rationally.
• An adaptive approach should be used to
predict EA impacts