Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar July 12, 2018

Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty 13 Jul 2018

Nifty opened higher at 11006 and bounced further to resister day’s high 11078 but failed to sustain at
higher levels and declined back till 11013 and finally closed 74 points up at 11023.

Yesterday, Nifty was expected to bounce towards 11033-11145 in coming days with 10894-10843 as
immediate support range and 10843 as breakeven point.

Trading strategy was to hold existing longs or buy fresh if get in 10865-10843 range using exact stoploss
of 10831 (some points below 10843) expecting bounce towards 11033-11145 in coming days. Nifty
opened gap up and achieved minimum target 11033 but without giving chance for fresh trade. Now,
let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 9951 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All
Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

1 Analysis by Deepak Kumar | www.sweeglu.com

Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar July 12, 2018

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 9951 which I marked as start of wave ‘v’ on
daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had
explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave (1) completed from 9951-10229, wave (2) completed from 10229-10111 as Irregular
Correction and wave (3) may be completed at 10929, wave (4) may be completed at 10417 as Simple
Zigzag and wave (5) may be in progress. [Wave (4) retraced deeper than 38%).

Wave (5) already achieved 61% projection after breaking above 11022, so we need to concentrate on its
pattern now onward.

So, let’s analyze the progress of expected wave (5) started from 10417 on lowest possible time frame
chart to check its pattern closely.

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10417 which I have marked as start of wave
(5) on 5 hourly chart. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

2 Analysis by Deepak Kumar | www.sweeglu.com

Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar July 12, 2018

There is an [abc] bounce from 10417-10893 followed by a progress of Complex correction (Double
Zigzag) from 10893-10557.

So, there is possibility of Ending Diagonal Triangle in progress with inner wave [i] of ED from 10417-
10893, [ii] from 10893-10557 as Double Zigzag correction and wave [iii] of ED may be in progress. Wave
[ii] retraced deeper than 61% and corrected till the start of inner wave [a] of [i].

Wave [iii] already achieved minimum 100% projection after breaking above 11033 and next 123%
projection is placed at 11145 which may or may not be achieved.

End of wave [i] is 10893 and 61% retracement of progress of wave [iii] is placed at 10756. So, wave [iv]
needs to break below 10893 at least to overlap wave [i] and 10893-10756 is expected target range for
wave [iv].

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave [iii] of ED on separate lowest possible time frame to check if it is
completed or not.

3 Analysis by Deepak Kumar | www.sweeglu.com

Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar July 12, 2018

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10557 which I am expecting as start of
inner wave [iii] of ED. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an impulse completed from 10557-10708 which can be marked as wave [a]. Wave [b] may be
completed from 10708-10605 as Irregular Correction which retraced by more than 61% and wave [c]
may be in progress from 10605. Wave [c] already projected by more than 123%, so need to concentrate
on its pattern now.

Within wave [c], it seems inner wave (i) completed from 10604-10672, wave (ii) may be completed from
10708-10630, wave (iii) may be completed at 10976, wave (iv) may be completed at 10929 and wave (v)
may be in progress.

Wave (v) of [c] or [iii] achieved minimum 38% projection after break above 11070 and next 61%
projection is placed at 11158 which may or may not be achieved.

Overall, wave [iii] may be already completed at 11078 or may complete somewhere around 11158 and
we can expect a decline towards 10893-10756 as wave [iv] soon.

Conclusion

For long/medium term,

Same as I explained in my all time frames report, Outlook for medium/long term is still bullish because
Nifty is within the middle of wave (3) on largest wave cycle and there is Irregular Correction at top. Nifty
has long way to go with occasional corrections (maximum 23%-38% corrections with 9918 as breakeven
point and 8968 as pattern negation point. Nifty may not break below 8968 in any case in coming years
before competition of larger wave cycle. We need to revise whole wave counts if Nifty ever broke
below 8968.

For Short Term,

Nifty achieved minimum expected target range 11033-11145 and now there is possibility of decline
towards 10893-10756 very soon. 11145-11158 is good resistance range on upside and Nifty can decline
without breaking much higher above 11158.
Nifty can decline from present levels also but there is lack of confidence because very last upside wave
started from 10929 [wave (v)] doesn’t seems completed.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind.

Trading Points of View:

According to fresh conditions on charts: -

Nifty achieved minimum expected target 11033 and now there is possibility of minimum decline
towards 10893 soon either from present levels or from bit higher levels but without breaking much
higher above 11158. So, short term trading strategy must be “Selling on Rise” whenever getting
opportunity expecting decline towards 10893. Most probable trades in these conditions are: -

4 Analysis by Deepak Kumar | www.sweeglu.com

Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar July 12, 2018

1. Strategy is “Selling on rise” but we are not confirmed if top is made or not. So we can take help
of opening price to initiate shorts. Note down tomorrow’s opening price and wait for 15
minutes. Nifty if trade below opening price after 9:31 AM (15 minutes after opening) then Sell
Nifty near opening price using stoploss of 33 points from entry level expecting decline towards
10893 in coming days.

2. Otherwise, Nifty if get in 11100-11158 range then 10900 Put of July Expiry can be bought
without any stoploss and wait for next update. Trade in light/comfortable quantity because we
are trading without any stoploss and the Put can become Zero.

3. Those who want to short Nifty futures from higher levels then short only if get in 11130-11158
range using stoploss of 11161 expecting declined towards 10893 in coming days.

These are most probable trading conditions I can suggest in current scenario, otherwise traders can plan
their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

Important Note: Nifty bounced from 10605 to 10976 in straight line without any reasonable correction.
So, nifty is definitely in positive zone indicating further strength but we can’t buy at any levels now
because support range moved far away and breakeven point is 130 points down from high. So now,
Nifty is at a point where strength is there and Nifty can bounce further but we need to wait for some
correction to initiate a low risk trade, we can buy only in support range near breakeven point for best
risk reward.
So, I prefer to trade near breakeven point that’s why suggesting trades near it. Otherwise traders can
plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DISCLAIMER

Trading Strategies suggested in this Report:

Trading strategy suggested in this report is just to show my subscriber how they can make trading
strategies in different market conditions based on Elliott Wave Counts. These trading strategies are not
trading recommendations. Any trade based on these trading strategies will be your own decisions and I
will not be responsible for any loss or profit for the same.

Trading based on my Elliott Wave Analysis Reports:

These Elliott Wave Analysis reports I prepared mainly for my book subscribers to show them practically
how to apply Elliott Wave Theory practically on charts to identify market moves, so that they can
understand better and learn faster. These reports are honest analysis based on whatever I can
understand from charts. These reports cover outlook of market but are not trading recommendations.

Trading based on these reports are your personal decision and trade only if you can understand these
reports completely or can identify change in wave patterns.

Request to Subscriber/Students:

5 Analysis by Deepak Kumar | www.sweeglu.com

Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar July 12, 2018

Please don’t ask me about any personal trades, trading advice or market movement during live market
hours as I clearly mentioned in my service disclaimer. There are 100s of clients ready to get my advisory
tips service but I never provide, there is a strong reason behind it. Please try to understand. It is a
humble request as I feel uncomfortable to answer same words again and again.

Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar

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By : Deepak Kumar
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