“Development of Reduction

Emission Scenarios’ Strategy and

Health Consequences of Air
Pollution in Jakarta”

TCAP-RCCC UI
 INTRODUCTION

• An environmental issue that continuously worsen living

conditions in many of Indonesia’s big cities is air pollution.
• Road transport is the major source of air pollution in Jakarta.
 INTRODUCTION

• Jakarta is one of the most polluted cities

in the world.
• Air pollution in Jakarta is above the safe
limits specified by WHO.
• In Jakarta, cost of illness due to all sources
of air pollution increased from US $ 40
million in 1994 to US $ 3.1 billion in 2010 1,200 premature deaths

(MOE-UNEP PCFV study, 2012).

464,000 Asthma Cases

32 million respiratory problem

cases
 GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR SO2 EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)
No. Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
combustion in
1 energy and 0.55 1.35 2.75 8.42 6.40 3.43 3.04 2.62 2.33
transformation
non-industrial
2 combustion 5.90 6.22 7.66 7.39 7.23 5.53 6.13 6.63 7.03
plants
combustion in
3 manufacturing 13.02 13.25 13.20 13.29 13.37 29.42 42.80 55.90 69.83
industry
production
4 371.53 372.07 372.30 502.31 552.21 552.11 552.02 551.81 551.59
processes
extraction and
distribution of
5 fossil fuels and 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
geothermal
energy
solvent and
6 other product 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
use
7 road transport 3.92 3.36 2.62 2.47 2.20 0.69 0.78 0.93 1.07
other mobile
8 sources and 0.93 0.73 0.47 0.49 0.36 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.49
machinery
waste
9 treatment and 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04
disposal
10 agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
total 395.88 397.00 399.02 534.38 581.80 591.33 604.92 618.05 632.37
GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR SO2 EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)

ECLIPSE My Scenario
GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR NOx EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)

ECLIPSE My Scenario
 GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR PM2.5
EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)
ECLIPSE My Scenario
GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR CO2 EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(megaton)
 GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR GHG
EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(megaton)
GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR N2O EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)
GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR NH3 EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)
 GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR PM10
EMISSION IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)
GAINS’ ESTIMATION FOR VOC EMISSION
IN JAKARTA 1990-2030
(kiloton)
DATA INVENTORY AND ANALYSIS
OF JAKARTA
DAILY-AVERAGE PM10 CONCENTRATION
IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS: (PM-10 daily average: 150 ug/m3 (PP.No. 41/Tahun 1999)

DAILY-AVERAGE SO2 CONCENTRATION
IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS (SO2 : 365 ug/m3 daily average (PP. No.41/Tahun 1999)

DAILY-AVERAGE NO2 CONCENTRATION
IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS (Nitrogen Dioxide 150 µg/m3 dailly average PP. No.41/Tahun 1999
DAILY ANNUAL-AVERAGE OF
CO CONCENTRATION
IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

NAAQS (CO : 10 mg/m3 daily average (PP41/Tahun 1999)

 DAILY ANNUAL-AVERAGE OF
O3 CONCENTRATION
IN JAKARTA 2001-2010

Estimates of emissions of air pollutants from anthropogenic sources in Jakarta in 2010, by sector (kilotons)

NAAQS (Ozone : 50 µg/m3 daily average (PP. No.41/Tahun 1999)

 NUMBER OF CASES DISEASES-
RELATED TO AIR POLLUTANTS IN
JAKARTA 2010
Number of population DKI Jakarta 2000 and 2010 from BPS: 26 May 2011
09:22. www.bps.go.id/aboutus.php?tabel=1&id_subyek=12
2000 8,389,443
2010 9,607,787

In Jakarta 2010:
 1,210,581 people suffered by asthmatic bronchiale (compared with
500,000 population predicted by Ostro 1994);
 153,724 people with bronchopneumonia;
 2,449,986 with ARI; 336,273 people with pneumonia;
 153,724 people with COPD, and;
 1,246,130 people with coronary artery diseases.

It shows that a total of 57.8% of the Jakarta population had already suffered
by various air pollution-related diseases in 2010
 COST OF ILLNESS DISEASES-RELATED
TO AIR POLLUTANTS IN JAKARTA 2010

Incidence Cost per patient Estimated cost in Jakarta

Health Impacts Per 100,000 (x1000) (x 1 million)
Med Mean Med Mean Minimum Maximum

Asthmatic bronchiale 12,600 569 1,445 688,215 1,749,379 210,607 5,349,095

Bronchopneumonia 1,600 133 331 20,369 50,812 14,066 561,221
ARI 25,500 132 244 323,398 597,150 225,747 11,698,297
Pneumonia 3,500 311 2,012 104,486 676,420 36,902 1,834,490
COPD 1,600 613 2,181 94,233 335,271 25,236 811,176
Coronary artery 12,970 780 1,819 971,670 2,266,334 185,378 18,253,187
diseases

Total 2,202,371 5,340,430 697,935 38,507,187

 Primary energy supply by source

Energy Consumption

600000

500000
Thousand BOE

Oil

400000 NG

300000 Coal

200000 Hydro

100000 Geothermal

Year

Source: Ministry of Energy & Mineral

Resources (MoEMR), 2010
 Final energy consumption by sector

4,E+06
4,E+06
3,E+06
Tera Joule (TJ)

3,E+06
2,E+06
2,E+06
1,E+06
5,E+05
0,E+00
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
2009 2010

Industry Transportation
Year Agriculture Domestic

Source:
MoEMR, 2010
 FUEL SUPPLY & DEMAND
2,500,000 Estimation of Consumption, Production, and Import of Oil Fuel
(Mogas, Kerosene, ADO, IDO, FO)

B
2,000,000
Volume (bbl/day)

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Note: Year
- Fuel S upply = Domestic fuel production + Import Consumption
- Data on 2006-2020 import = C onsumption - P roduction
Domestic Fuel Prod.
- Fuel consumption growth (average) 1995-2005 is 4,6%
- Assuming average fuel consumption growth of 4,5% in 2006-2020 Fuel Supply

INDONESIA
Trend of Gaseous Fuel Utilization for Transport Sector

Source: Pertamina, 2010 processed by KPBB

 Bio-fuels
Use of bio-fuels in transportation sector (1)
January – August 2008

0% 2%

PREMIUM Biopremium 0.03%

PERTAMAX
36% PERTAMAX PLUS Biopertamax E-5 0.04%
BIOPREMIUM
Biosolar B5 1.81%
BIOPERTAMAX E-5
61% SOLAR/HSD/MGO/ADO
0% PERTAMINA DEX
0% BIOSOLAR-B5
1% 0%

PERTAMAX BIOPERTAM SOLAR/HSD/M PERTAMINA BIOSOLAR-

PREMIUM PERTAMAX BIOPREMIUM
PLUS AX E-5 GO/ADO DEX B5

Sales 12,984,783.090 135,336.923 53,114.000 6,008.000 9,321.717 7,712,403.002 432.122 385,864.000

Share (%) 61% 0.64% 0.25% 0.03% 0.04% 36.23% 0.00% 1.81%

Source: Pertamina, 2008

 Key issues on fuel quality
• Indonesia is free of leaded gasoline
• Diesel oil does not comply with Euro 2 fuel requirement
– Total Domestic Refineries Production of ADO spec. (S max. 3500 ppm)
is approx 87.0 Million Barrel per year
– Total import ADO spec. (Sulfur content 5000. ppm) is approx 75.0
Million Barrel per year for Industry
– Sulfur content at pump is in the range of 400 ppm to 4600 ppm
• Transport sector absorbs significant portion of fuel subsidy

Key issues with fuel supply, demand, and

subsidy
NATIONAL DATA, REGULATIONS
AND POLICIES
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCE
Energy Consumption

600000

500000
Thousand BOE

Oil

400000 NG

300000 Coal

200000 Hydro

100000 Geothermal

Year
Source: MoEMR, 2010
 ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

4,E+06
4,E+06
3,E+06
Tera Joule (TJ)

3,E+06
2,E+06
2,E+06
1,E+06
5,E+05
0,E+00

Industry
Year
Transportation Agriculture Domestic

Source: MoEMR, 2010

 FUEL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
2,500,000 Estimation of Consumption, Production, and Import of Oil Fuel
(Mogas, Kerosene, ADO, IDO, FO)

B
2,000,000
Volume (bbl/day)

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Note: Year
- Fuel S upply = Domestic fuel production + Import Consumption
- Data on 2006-2020 import = C onsumption - P roduction
Domestic Fuel Prod.
- Fuel consumption growth (average) 1995-2005 is 4,6%
- Assuming average fuel consumption growth of 4,5% in 2006-2020 Fuel Supply
 Number of Vehicles in Indonesia by Type

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000
Thousand Unit

TOTAL
PASSENGER
40,000 BUS
TRUCK
30,000 MOTORCYCLE

20,000

10,000

0
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Ye ar
 Composition of Vehicles in Indonesia by Type

100%

80%

MOTORCYCLE
60%
TRUCK
BUS
40%
PASSENGER

20%

0%
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Year
 Monthly Vehicle Production in Indonesia by Type

80,000

70,000 TOTAL
SEDAN
60,000
SEDAN 1500
50,000 SEDAN 1500 - 3000
SEDAN 3000
Unit

40,000 MPV 1500

30,000 MPV 1500 - 2000
MPV 2500-3000
20,000 SUV 1500
SUV 3000
10,000
BUS 5 T
0 BUS 5 - 24 T
Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10
Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
TRUCK 5 - 24 T
TRUCK 24 T

Month
 Number of Motor Cycle in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted Number of Passenger Cars in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted
100 20

80
15

60
Million Unit

Million Unit
10
40

20 5

0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
MOTOR_ACTUAL MOTOR_PRED
PASS_ACTUAL PASS_PRED

Number of Buses in Indonesia: Actual Vs Predicted

Number of Trucks in Indonesia: Actual Vs
6
8 Predicted
5

Million
6
4
Million Unit

3 4
2
2
1

0 0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
BUS_ACTUAL BUS_PRED TRUCK_ACTUALTRUCK_PRED
 FORECASTING STATISTICS GASOLINE
AND DIESEL COMSUMPTION TO 2016
FORECASTING STATISTICS: GASOLINE CONSUMPTION FORECASTING STATISTICS: DIESEL OIL
3500000 2000000
Forecast : GASOLI NEPF Forecast : DI ESELPF
Act ual: GASOLI NEP Act ual: DI ESELP
3000000 Forecast sample: 1990: 01 2015: 1800000 Forecast sample: 1990: 01 2015:
Adjust ed sample: 1990: 03 2015: Adjust ed sample: 2006: 03 2015:
I ncluded observat ions: 250 I ncluded observat ions: 58
2500000 1600000
Root Mean Squared Error 90472. 29
Root Mean Squared Error 59738. 64
Mean Absolut e Error 60365. 46
Mean Absolut e Error 50832. 85
2000000 Mean Abs. Percent Error 5. 222652
1400000 Mean Abs. Percent Error 5. 010395
Theil I nequalit y Coef f icient 0. 038502
Theil I nequalit y Coef f icient 0. 028749
Bias Proport oi n 0. 001759
Bias Proport ion 0. 005894
1500000 Variance Proport ion 0. 028894
1200000 Variance Proport ion 0. 075141
Covariance Proport ion 0. 969347
Covariance Proport ion 0. 918965

1000000
1000000
500000
800000
0
600000
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
GASOLINEPF ± 2 S.E.
DIESELPF ± 2 S.E.
FOCUS OF THE SCENARIO

1. EMISSION FROM TRANSPORTATION

2. HUMAN HEALTH BENEFICIERIES
 CHALLENGES
1. Inventory data format vs GAINS template
2. Couldn't download "pollutant by GAINS region“
3. Couldn't display the maps of "Ambient concentrations and
deposition" because the map of Indonesia is unavailable
4. data of premature mortality from ambient PM2,5 is only
available for India's data
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION