Table of Contents

International Conference on Advances in Nuclear Science and Engineering in Conjunction with LKSTN 2007 (177-181)

Long-Term Load Forecasting on the Java-Madura-Bali

Electricity System Using Artificial Neural Network Method

Arief Heru Kuncoro1,2, Zuhal1, Rinaldy Dalimi1

1
Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Indonesia, Depok
2
National Nuclear Energy Agency, BATAN, Jakarta

Abstract
LONG-TERM LOAD FORECASTING ON THE JAVA-MADURA-BALI ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD. A long-term forecasting of electric power peak load on
the Java-Bali electricity system using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method has been researched. Result has
been compared with the forecasting from National Electricity General Plan (NEGP), with the study period of
2007 - 2025. ANN is a part of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that promises new generation of information-processing
systems that demonstrate the ability to learn, recall, and generalize from training patterns or data. The ANN
model used in
this research is back propagation (BP). The research uses MATLAB version R2006b, and the steps of
ANN methodology applied are as follow: assembling the training set data (TSD), creating the network object,
training the network using historical data, simulating the network response to new inputs, and finally resulting
in the output of forecasting. TSD consists of 2 data types, i.e.: input data (consist of: Gross Regional Domestic
Product (GRDP), population, number of households, total electric energy demand, electricity consumption on
households, electricity consumption on commercial sector, electricity consumption on public sector, electricity
consumption on industry sector, electric energy on the Java-Bali system, & electrification ratio), and output
target data (consist of: historical peak load data). The result of peak load forecasting using ANN method is
reasonable and considered good enough, since the electricity utility will accept error until 10% in long term
forecasting. Based on ANN approach, the Java-Bali system’s peak load of the years 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020 and
2025 are predicted to be 16270 MW, 19740 MW, 28150 MW, 40270 MW and 57030 MW respectively,
meanwhile according to NEGP are 17008 MW, 21152 MW, 30575 MW, 43018 MW and 59107 MW respectively.

Keywords — Load forecasting, ANN, NEGP.

1. Introduction At the end of December 2005, PT. PLN

The Republic of Indonesia is located in
Southeast Asia on an archipelago of more than
17,000 islands astride the equator. Indonesia’s
population is the fourth largest in the world and
more than 60% living in the islands of Java,
Madura and Bali (that three islands have only
around 6.89% of total land area).
Before the crisis, electricity demand in
Indonesia was very high due to a National
Economic Development Plan based on
industrialization and supported by a strong
agriculture base. It should be noted that in the
twenty-five years prior to the crisis, the annual
electricity growth rate averaged around 15% per
annum. Due to the economic crisis, electricity
demand has declined notably. However, in the
early 2000s the Indonesian economy is set to
return to an expansionary path again and energy
and electricity demands are projected to grow
substantially over the coming decade.
(Persero) and Subsidiary owned and operated about
5,210 generating units with total capacity of
22,515.09 MW, of which 16,355.55 MW (72,64%)
was installed in Java. The system peak load
for Indonesia for the calendar year 2005 was
19,263 MW, increased by 1.94% over the previous
year. The peak load for the Java-Madura-Bali
system was 14,821 MW (this was up 2.92% over
the previous year)[1].
According to Minister of Energy and
Mineral Resources, in year 2004, to push economic
growth’s 5%, is needed in order to reach the
growth of electricity supply’s 9%. Therefore, for
the future, the supply growth of electricity should
be raced until 11.7-14.8% per-year to reach
economic growth to be 6.5-8% per-year (such as
targeted by Mr. President)[2].
Every country or electric utility must
know the accurate amount of required power in
order to prepare power supply capability for
maximum electric load demand up to that period.

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The electric loads consist of many

complex factors having nonlinear
characteristics, and good results may not be
obtained using the traditional methods.
Therefore, a better method of forecasting would
be one that could find nonlinear relations
between load and various economic and other
factors and adaptable to changes. A
methodology that best suits these requirements
is the application of artificial neural networks.
The Artificial Neural Network (ANN),
particularly feed-forward and feed-backward
back-propagation methods, were reported to be
proper for load forecasting[3]. Since the period
of long-term load forecasting is different from
country to country and even from company to
company, comparison among them become
difficult. As they have different characteristics,
therefore each load forecasting approach
becomes valid only for that country, particular
region or company.
However, this paper presents the
research of electric power peak load forecasting
in the Java-Madura-Bali system by using ANN
method, with the study period is 2007 – 2025.

2. Methodology
This research used the Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) method to peak load
forecasting on the Java-Madura-Bali electricity
system.
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a
part of Artificial Intelligence (AI), that’s
promising new generation of information-
processing systems that demonstrate the ability
to learn, recall, and generalize from training
patterns or data. ANN has certain performance
characteristics in common with biological
neural networks. A neural net consists of a large
number of simple processing elements called Figure 1. Flow cart of ANN back
neurons, units, cells, or nodes. Each neuron is propagation training algorithm.
connected to other neurons by means of Note:
directed communication links, each with an xi input vectors for training.
associated weight. The weights represent vij weight of connection between node i to j.
information being used by the net to solve a z_inj output vectors of hidden unit before
problem. Each neuron has the activation, which activation.
is a function of the inputs it has received. A f activation function.
neuron sends its activation as a signal to several zj output vectors of hidden unit after
other neurons [4,5]. activation.
ANN model that’s used in this wjk weight of connection between node j to k.
research is back propagation (BP). The BP y_ink output vectors of training before
learning algorithm is one of the most important activation.
historical developments in neural networks (see yk output vectors of training after activation.
Figure 1). tk target output vectors (reference).
δ error vectors.
α training rate constant.

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Δ weight correction ANN is designed with 4 layers, which the first

q iteration of qth. layer, second layer, third layer and fourth layer
consist of 10, 15, 7 and 1 neuron(s),
This learning algorithm is applied to respectively (Figure 2).
multilayer feed-forward networks consisting of c. Train the network.
processing elements with continuous d. Simulate the network response to new inputs,
differentiable activation functions. Given a which the new inputs are projection data of 10
training set of input-output pairs {(x, t)}, the important factors that influence the long-term
algorithm provides a procedure for changing forecasting from many sources (2007-
the weights in a BP network to classify the 2025)[8,9,10,11].
given input pattern correctly. The basis for this e. Output results of forecasting (2007-2025).
weight update algorithm is simply the gradient-
descent method as used for simple perceptrons
with differentiable units. For a given input-
output pairs {(x, t)}, the BP algorithm performs
two phases of data flow. First, the input pattern
x is propagated from the input layer to the
output layer, and as a result of this forward flow
of data, it produces an actual output y. Then the
error signals resulting from the difference
between t and y are back-propagated from the
output layer to the previous layer for them to
update their weights [6].
This algorithm adopts the incremental
approach in updating the weight, that is, the
weights are changed immediately after training
pattern is presented. The training process will
be terminated until the target error is reached.
In this research, we use the steps for
ANN simulation using MATLAB7 to the long-
Figure 2. Design of ANN for long term
term peak load forecasting (see Figure 2), i.e.:
peak load forecasting.
a. Assemble the Training Set Data
(TSD)[1,7,8,9,10].
In the process simulation, ANN is always
TSD consists of 2 data types: Input and
changes weight value, until maximum epoch 50000
Output data.
is reached or mean square error (MSE) is equal/less
Input data (consists of 10 parameters
than 10-6. When the maximum epoch is reached,
thought to influence the load forecasting),
the value of MSE is about 8,43531. 10-6 (Figure 3).
i.e.:
- Gross Regional Domestic Product
(GRDP)
- Population
- Number of households
- Total electric energy demand
- Electricity consumption on households
sector
- Electricity consumption on
commercial sector
- Electricity consumption on public
sector
- Electricity consumption on industry
sector
- Electric energy on Java-Bali system Figure 3. Performance MSE illustrasion of
- Electrification Ratio ANN training proccess.
Output target data, i.e.: historical peak load
data. 3. Results
b. Create the network object.

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The research results of long-term peak

70000
load forecasting which conducted for year
2007-2025 can be seen at Table 1, Table 2 and 60000

Figure 4. In the tables and figure are presented

forecasting results by using ANN method and
50000

NEGP forecasting, and also the actual data of

P e a k L o a d (M W )
40000

peak load from PLN Statistics, PT. PLN

(Persero). 30000

20000

Table 1. Peak load forecasting in the

Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. 10000

Year ANN Actual Data NEGP112] 0

2001 12577

20
21
22
23
24
25
16
17
18
19
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2002 13374 NEGP ANN Year

2003 13682
2004 14398
2005 14821 14851 Figure 4. Peak load forecasting in the Java-
2006 15396 15886 Madura-Bali electricity system.
2007 16270 17008
2008 17250 18090 From ANN study result can be known that
2009 18280 19525 annual peak load growth rate will increase about
2010 19740 21152 6.4% for the period of 2007-2010; 7.4% for period
2011 20950 22563 of 2011-2015; 7.4% for period of 2016-2020; and
2012 22310 24393 then 7.2% for period of 2021-2025 (Table 2).
2013 24050 26362
2014 26000 28262 Table 2. Annual load mean growth rate in the
2015 28150 30575 Java-Madura-Bali system.
2016 30460 32509
2017 32930 34957 ANN Metode NEGP
2018 35180 37519 Year Power Annual Power Annual
2019 37640 40215 increase growth increase growth
2020 40270 43018 (MW) rate (MW) rate
2021 43250 45386 2007-2010 4344 6,4% 5756 8,3%
2022 46120 48502
2011-2015 8410 7,4% 9423 7,6%
2023 49340 51815
2016-2020 12120 7,4% 12443 7,1%
2024 52950 55343
2025 57030 59107 2021-2025 16760 7,2% 16089 6,6%
2007-2025* 41634 7.1% 43711 7,3%
Based on the ANN calculation, the peak
load forecasting will increase from 15,396 MW Meanwhile, according to NEGP
(2006), becoming 57,030 MW (2025), so the forecasting, the annual peak load growth rate will
power increase is about 41,634 MW. By increase about 8.3% for the period of 2007-2010;
consideration of actual load data in year 2006, 7.6% for period of 2011-2015; 7.1% for period of
the calculation result of mean annual load 2016-2020; and then 6,6% for period of 2021-2025
growth rate is about 7.1% (during period of (Table 2).
study). Meanwhile, according to NEGP
projection, the peak load forecasting will
increase from 15,886 MW (2006), becoming 4. Discussion
59,107 MW (2025), so the power increase is Forecasting of electric power peak load in
about 43,711 MW, and the annual average load the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system by using
growth rate is about 7.3% (during the period of ANN method is influenced by the historical data of
study). demographic, economic, electricity consumption,
and electrification ratio. That historical data is used
for ANN training.
The annual electricity growth rate before
crisis averaged around 15% per annum. Due to the
crisis, electricity demand has declined. However, in

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International Conference on Advances in Nuclear Science and Engineering in Conjunction with LKSTN 2007 (177-181)
the early 2000s the Indonesia economy is set to
return to an expansionary path again and
electricity demand is projected to grow
substantially over the coming decade. By
consideration of the forecasting results in Table
1, Table 2 and Figure 3, we know that
economic growth in the Java-Madura-Bali
islands will increase with annual electricity
growth rate averaged around 7.1% (ANN) –
7.3% (NEGP) during the period of study
(2007-2025).
For the next research, the load
forecasting results of ANN will inputed into the
Loadsy Module of Wien Automatic System
Planning Package (WASP) for optimization of
the expansion planning for Java-Madura-Bali
electrical generating system with nuclear power
option. Program package of WASP is
developed by Tennessee Valley Authority Oak
Ridge National Laboratory and International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for the
planning of electricity system development.
5. Conclusion
Results of peak load forecasting by
using ANN method and NEGP projection are
reasonable and good enough, because in
general, the electricity utility will accept error
until 10% to long term forecasting[3].
Results of ANN approach and NEGP
projection for the period of study 2007-2025,
show that accelerate increase of annual average
load growth rate’s around 7.1% (ANN) - 7.3%
(NEGP). This is a good situation reflection of
Java-Madura_Bali region economic growth.
Based on ANN approached, the Java-
Madura-Bali system’s peak load of years 2007,
2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 are predicted to be
16270 MW, 19740 MW, 28150 MW, 40270
MW and 57030 MW, respectively. Meanwhile,
according to NEGP, the peak load of years
2007, 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 are predicted
to be 17008 MW, 21152 MW, 30575 MW,
43018 MW and 59107 MW, respectively.
Considering with results which
obtained in this research as well as
consideration of pickings of research
researchers before all, we expect to get a more
accurate and better estimate forecast for the
future.
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