Assignment 1 Thaneledchemiy

CIC2004 Investment Management
2017/2018 Semester 1
Dr. Jacinta Chan
Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC)
Assignment 1 by;
THANELEDCHEMIY A/P SELOKUMAR
CIC160090
971014-01-5150
Submitted on: 12/11/2017

KRAFT HEINZ CO. (KHC)
NASDAQ Global Select Market
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 3
2.0 Security Analysis

2.1 Country Selection ..........................................................................................................................4-5
2.2 Sector Selection ............................................................................................................................... 6
2.3 Particular Stock Selection ............................................................................................................ 7-8
3.0 Calculation of Risk and Return

3.1 Expected Return ......................................................................................................................... 9-10
3.2 Standard Deviation.........................................................................................................................10
4.0 Evaluation of Research Analysts' Reports ...................................................................................... 11-15
5.0 References ................................................................................................................................................ 16
6.0 Appendix
6.1 Appendix A (Excel Calculation) .............................................................................................. 17-23
6.2 Appendix B (Analyst Recommendation) ................................................................................. 24-28
6.3 Appendix C (Analyst Research Report) ........................................................................................ 29
2|Assignment1:CIC2004INVESTMENTMANAGEMENT
1.0 Introduction
When considering to choose a stock to invest, investors should consider buying a stock that would outperform
a bench mark index. The benchmark index is often related to particular market index. In Malaysia, FTSE
KLCI is considered the benchmark for Malaysian stock market. In the U.S., the Standard & Poor's 500 Index
(S&P 500), an index of 500 stocks seen as a leading indicator of U.S. equities is the market value weighted
index and one of the common benchmarks for the U.S. stock market.
Table 1: Moving average of FTSE KLCI for 200 days

Source: Bursa Malaysia
According to Table 1 above, we can see the moving average of the common benchmarks for the Malaysian
stock market. Moving average is a widely used indicator in technical analysis that helps smooth out price
action by filtering out the “noise” from random price fluctuations. The most common applications of moving
averages are to identify the trend direction and to determine support and resistance levels. As seen above, we
can see an optimistic future for the Malaysian market as the trend is continuously moving upwards in long
term.
2.0 Security Analysis
2.1 Country Selection – Macroeconomic Analysis
Question: Explain why you choose the country.
The country that I would like

to select is The United States
of America (USA), commonly
known as the United States
(U.S.) to invest. The United
States has a capitalist mixed
economy which is supported
by plentiful natural resources
and high economic
productivity. The U.S.
accounts GDP of $18.569
Chart 1: Gross Domestic Product of World and The United States
trillion that constitutes 24% of Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
the gross world product at market exchange rates as shown in Chart 1. This explains the powerful role of U.S.
in the global market as it is able to show a stable productivity growth with wide market share in the world.
According to Chart 2, real gross domestic product (GDP) of U.S. increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter of
2017. In the second quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The chart clearly portrays a consistent
growth of real GDP of the nation. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending,
inventory investment,
business investment, and
exports. Obviously, this
measurement of a nation’s
economic health has a huge
effect on stock market
returns. Healthy economy
ensures business performs
well thus affects positively on
Chart 2: Quarter‐to‐Quarter Growth in Real GDP of The United States
stock prices. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce
Other than the GDP of the United States, unemployment rate is another significant economic indicator that
illustrates the development and the strength
of the economy. Unemployment rate of
4.2% based on Table 2 shows that U.S. has
acceptable moderate unemployment rate.
This means than U.S. has potential for
higher economic output, retail sales,
savings and corporate profits.
Table 2: Economic Indicators of The United States
Source: Trading Economics
Next, based on Table 1, inflation rate of 2.2% shows that the inflation rate is in moderation. The rate of
inflation is important as it represents the rate at which the real value of an investment is reduced and the loss
in spending power over time. Inflation also tells investors exactly how much of a return (%) their investments
need to make for them to maintain their standard of living. With this moderate inflation rate, investors can
protect their purchasing power and investment returns by investing in U.S.
Interest rate, which is the cost someone pays for the use of someone else's money affects the money supply in
a country. The effect of decreasing amount of money consumers can spend when interest rate increases
eventually slows down growth of business thus effecting the stock prices negatively. In U.S., the stable interest
rate of 1.25% based on Table 1 indicates that this country is safe for stocks purchase.
Furthermore, U.S. offers by far the largest investment market in the world. A larger capital markets is generally
positive as it provides more opportunities and enhances market liquidity. Other than that, the US is one of the
most innovative countries in the world and continues to take steps to ensure it remains that way. The nation
benefits from highly developed venture capital and angel investing industries as well as unrivalled academic
research. Innovation matters to investors, because it fuels economic progress and is a key determinant of a
country’s global competitiveness.
From the stable economic indicators, large investment market and innovative efforts discussed earlier, we can
see that these qualities portray United States as a large and stable economy compared to other nations. I believe
that investing in The United States of America is a wise decision.
2.2 Sector Selection – Industry Analysis
Question: Explain why you choose the sector.
The sector that I would like to select is Food & Beverages industry in The United States. As the top exporter
of agricultural products in the world, the U.S. food and beverage (F&B) industry provides a secure food source
for countries across the globe, while also employing millions of people across the world and generating wealth
for many businesses and their owners.
Food and beverage industry is seen to

be underperforming comparing to
S&P 500 benchmark index based on
Chart 2. Nevertheless, we have to
understand that food and beverage
industry comprises of companies Chart 2: Performance of Food Products Industry and Beverages Industry compared
whose businesses are less sensitive to to S&P 500 benchmark index
Source: Fidelity Investment
economic cycles. Thus, fluctuations are low in food and beverage industry. Based on Chart 2 again, we can
see that the industry is doing pretty well as in consistent overall growth overtime.
It is undeniable fact that business cycles will affect the

performance of businesses in a country. Currently, U.S.
is in the expansion period based on Chart 3. During
expansion period we can expect businesses to make
good profits and successfully expanding their
businesses in all sector.
Consumer staples sector includes manufacturers and Chart 3: Current business cycle of the U.S. economy
Source: Fidelity Investment
distributors of food, beverages and tobacco and
producers of non-durable household goods and personal products. Food and beverage industry is comprised
in consumer staples. Based on Table 3, we can observe that in the Late phase of business cycle which is the
phase U.S. moving to now, is the sector
that is expected to overperform. Thus,
there will be a huge opportunity for
businesses to expand in food and
beverages industry. Table 3: Consumer Staples performance by business cycle
Source: Fidelity
Investment
2.3 Particular Stock Selection – Fundamental Analysis
Question: Explain why you choose the particular stock.
The stock that I would select to invest in is Kraft Heinz Company as I can sense a steady growth potential that
this company possess. The Kraft Heinz Company is the fifth-largest food and beverage company in the world
formed by the merger of Kraft Foods Group and Heinz in 2015 with $26.5bn in net sales (2016). A globally
trusted producer of delicious foods, The Kraft Heinz Company provides high quality, great taste and nutrition
for all eating occasions whether at home, in restaurants or on the go and it is dedicated to the sustainable health
of the consumers.
Chart 4: Revenue and EPS growth of Kraft Heinz

Source: Bloomberg
As the key player in the food and beverage market
worldwide, Kraft Heinz records steady revenue
and increasing earnings per share(EPS) based on
Chart 4. The forecast also shows positive outlook
of growth on the both factors. The increase in EPS
shows that the company is making better profits
with the increase of investors.
Investors are also guaranteed with steady dividend

growth as we can see from Table 4. The current
dividend is $ 0.6250 per share. The dividend yield
for fiscal year end of 2016 is 3.2% as seen in Table
5. The company also consistently posts relatively
high dividends in the industry showing that it has
sustainable competitive advantage.
Table 4: Historical dividends of Kraft Heinz

Source: Bloomberg
Table 5: Ratios of Kraft Heinz

Source: Bloomberg
The price earnings ratio(P/E) of the company is 22.0 based on Table 5 which is within good acceptable range.
Next, return on equity (ROE) is 6.6% which is satisfactory. These shows that Kraft Heinz is on steady phase
now and is expected for growth like been forecasted. Beta of Kraft Heinz is 0.3901 (Appendix A), which is
low and very resistant with the market.
Although there are many other food and beverages

companies, Kraft Heinz still outperform in the
industry. From Table 6, we can see that Kraft Heinz
records revenue of 26.5B, which is considered pretty
high. The high revenue accounted by the company is
Table 6: Industry revenue of Food and Beverage
competitive when comparing with other companies in Source: Bloomberg
the same industry like General Mills.
The company has been working on product innovation and expanding its market presence to support its sales
growth. Kraft Heinz CEO, Mr. Hees said the strategy is to get profitable growth in organic terms, calling out
$1 billion invested last year in upgrading manufacturing and as well increased spending on marketing over
the last few years. Other than that, Kraft Heinz is keeping its eyes on other companies, with another big merger
expected to be announced later in 2017. Moreover, the company’s partnership with Oprah Winfrey takes effect
in the third quarter of 2017, a move expected to increase its value. All of these factors do give me a strong
confident to buy and hold the stock.
3.0 Calculation of Risk and Return
3.1 Expected Return
Question: Calculate the expected return.
A) Portfolio Theory
The Arithmetic Average of rate of return
where:
r(s)= rate of return of KHC
n= 60 months
Expected return = 0.0108, 1.08% (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)
B) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Theory
where:
COV(Rm,Ra)= the covariance between KHC and market
Var Rm= the variance of market
COV(Rm,Ra)= 0.0002896
Var Rm= 0.0007424
βa = 0.3901 (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)
10 | A s s i g n m e n t 1 : C I C 2 0 0 4 I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T
where:
rrf = the rate of return for a risk-free security
rm = the broad market's expected rate of return
βa = beta of the asset
rm= 1.04% (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)

rrf =1.07% (4 weeks Treasury Bills as on 9/11/2017)
ra = 1.07%+0.3901(1.04%-1.07%)
Expected return = 1.06%
By using Portfolio Theory, expected return of The Kraft Heinz Company is 1.08%. On the other hand, by
using Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Theory is 1.06%.
All of these figures are calculated based on past 5 years’ data. Both 1.08% and 1.06% shows an optimistic
figure for future returns and it is also outperformed in S&P500 index which the S&P500 index’s expected
return is 1.04%.
3.2 Standard Deviation
Question: Calculate the possible standard deviations from your expected return.
Standard Deviation= 6.53% (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)
Standard Deviation calculated for The Kraft Heinz Company is 6.53% indicated the volatility of the stock
price in the past five years. It is quite risky in the food and beverages industry and if compared with S&P500,
which is only 2.72% (Appendix A).
4.0 Evaluation of Research Analysts' Reports
Rank Firm Recommendation Target Price(USD)
1st Credit Suisse Outperform (moderate buy) 95
2nd Zacks Equity Research Sell 77
3rd RBC Capital Markets Outperform (moderate buy) 94
4th JP Morgan Overweight (moderate buy) 84
Table 7: Ranking for research reports of PFE
st
1 Rank: Credit Suisse
This stock analyst report is done by Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse Group is a Swiss
multinational financial services holding company, headquartered in Zürich, that operates the Credit Suisse
Bank and other financial services investments. Credit Suisse’s head of equity investments in Europe has an
interest in companies undergoing management changes that may influence the stock price. This applies to the
Kraft Heinz Company as it has formed by the merger of Kraft Foods Group and Heinz in 2015. Credit Suisse
has recommended Outperform which is a moderate buy for the Kraft Heinz Company. Based on the historical
recommendations (Appendix B Table 8), almost all the close prices are close to target price. Furthermore,
based on the chart below (Chart 5), it clearly shows that the recommended and real price has good consistency.
Credit Suisse is also ranked 5th in accuracy of target price with close price compared to analyst report like
Morningstar Inc, UBS and Consumer Edge Research in Bloomberg. Credit Suisse takes in mind revenue
growth potentials, management actions on reinvesting, also merger and acquisition speculation. Credit Suisse
also didn’t forget to mention the risks involved in their report. Risk to the $95 target price and outperform
rating for KHC are 1) revenue growth underperforming expectations, 2) overly aggressive cost-cutting
denuding the brands and assets, 3) management failing to deliver the promised level of synergies, or 4)
integration missteps. Thus, this research report that is done by Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse is reliable
and ensures that investors are confident enough to make decision based on their analysis with proper reasoning.
Chart 5: The difference between target price and actual price of Kraft Heinz by Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse for past years.
Source: Bloomberg
rd
2 Rank: Zacks Equity Research
While the Credit Suisse recommended outperform, Zacks Equity Research recommended sell on the Kraft
Heinz Company. Zacks Equity Research is a company, founded in 1977, dedicated to providing professional
investors with the financial data and analysis needed to make better speculative decisions for themselves and
their clients. Zacks is known best for providing an extensive array of consensus earnings-per-share (EPS)
estimates. The company also offers very detailed research reports, recommendation summaries on various
stocks, stock prices, charts and tables and a host of other investment tools and data. Based on the historical
recommendations in the Chart 6 below, we can see moderate accuracy of target prices with close price but is
it not as good as Credit Suisse. Thus, I would rank research report by Zacks Equity Research as 2nd because of
moderate accuracy even though the report has great detailing and reasonings.
Chart 6: The difference between target price and actual price of Kraft Heinz by Zacks Equity Research for past years.
Source: Zacks Equity Research
nd
3 Rank: RBC Capital Markets
RBC Capital Markets is a global investment bank providing services in banking, finance and capital markets
to corporations, institutional investors, asset managers and governments globally. RBC Capital Markets report
by David Palmer has also recommended outperform which is a moderate buy for the Kraft Heinz Company
like Credit Suisse. RBC Capital Markets guess that Kraft Heinz will once again be acquirers within a few
years with potential benefits to synergies and growth. In the report, pressure, opportunities, and people
influencing Kraft Heinz are discussed. RBC Capital Markets has also recommended outperform and also has
explained in detail about their reasonings on their stand as good as Credit Suisse. However, the target price
and close price of RBC Capital Markets has less consistency compared Credit Suisse and Zacks Equity
Research. RBC Capital Markets analyst report is ranked 9th in Bloomberg. Next, based on the historical
recommendations (Appendix B Table 9) and historical chart in Chart 7 below, we can see that the target prices
are not accurate. Therefore, I am ranking analyst report by David Palmer from RBC Capital Markets as 3nd.
Chart 7: The difference between target price and actual price of Kraft Heinz by David Palmer from RBC Capital Markets for past
years.
Source: Bloomberg
th
4 Rank: JP Morgan
JP Morgan has recommended overweight for the Kraft Heinz Company as they expect the stock to outperform
its industry in the market. JP Morgan specialises in investment banking, markets & investor services and
treasury services. JP Morgan has made a lot of recommendation whether buy, sell or hold for the past years
for the Kraft Heinz Company. Currently, JP Morgan is reducing their estimates for KHC from $87.00 to
$84.00 with several reasons. However, they still rate the company as overweight as M&A opportunity remains
too attractive to overlook. In this year, the target price from JP Morgan is far higher than the close prices every
day as we can see from the Chart 8 below and also the historical recommendations (Appendix B Table 10).
Thus, research report by Ken Goldman from JP Morgan is the worst among the other reports.
Chart 8: The difference between target price and actual price of Kraft Heinz by Ken Goldman from JP Morgan for past years.
Source: Bloomberg
5.0 References
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved from

https://www.bea.gov/index.htm
Investopedia. Retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com
Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/
The World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://www.worldbank.org/
TRADING ECONOMICS. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/
US Department of the Treasury. Retrieved from https://www.treasury.gov/Pages/default.aspx
Zacks Equity Research. Retrieved from https://www.zacks.com/research/equity-research.php
6.0 Appendix
6.1 APPENDIX A
(Excel Calculation)
Security KHC US Equity
30/11/2012
Start Date 0:00
31/10/2017
End Date 0:00
Period M
Currency USD
%
Date Close Price Change Change Ri
31/10/2017 77.33 -0.22 -0.28369 -0.00284
29/9/2017 77.55 -3.2 -3.96285 -0.03963
31/8/2017 80.75 -6.71 -7.67208 -0.07672
31/7/2017 87.46 1.82 2.125175 0.021252
30/6/2017 85.64 -6.56 -7.11497 -0.07115
31/5/2017 92.2 1.81 2.002434 0.020024
28/4/2017 90.39 -0.42 -0.4625 -0.00463
31/3/2017 90.81 -0.7 -0.76494 -0.00765
28/2/2017 91.51 2.22 2.486281 0.024863
31/1/2017 89.29 1.97 2.25607 0.022561
30/12/2016 87.32 5.67 6.944274 0.069443
30/11/2016 81.65 -7.3 -8.20686 -0.08207
31/10/2016 88.95 -0.56 -0.62563 -0.00626
30/9/2016 89.51 0.02 0.022349 0.000223
31/8/2016 89.49 3.1 3.588378 0.035884
29/7/2016 86.39 -2.09 -2.36212 -0.02362
30/6/2016 88.48 5.29 6.358937 0.063589
31/5/2016 83.19 5.12 6.558217 0.065582
29/4/2016 78.07 -0.49 -0.62373 -0.00624
31/3/2016 78.56 1.54 1.999481 0.019995
29/2/2016 77.02 -1.04 -1.33231 -0.01332
29/1/2016 78.06 5.3 7.284222 0.072842
31/12/2015 72.76 -0.93 -1.26204 -0.01262
30/11/2015 73.69 -4.28 -5.48929 -0.05489
30/10/2015 77.97 7.39 10.47039 0.104704
30/9/2015 70.58 -2.08 -2.86265 -0.02863
31/8/2015 72.66 -6.81 -8.56927 -0.08569
31/7/2015 79.47 -5.67 -6.65962 -0.0666
30/6/2015 85.14 0.69 0.817052 0.008171
29/5/2015 84.45 -0.3 -0.35398 -0.00354
30/4/2015 84.75 -2.365 -2.7148 -0.02715
31/3/2015 87.115 23.055 35.9897 0.359897
27/2/2015 64.06 -1.28 -1.95898 -0.01959
30/1/2015 65.34 2.68 4.277051 0.042771
31/12/2014 62.66 2.49 4.138275 0.041383
28/11/2014 60.17 3.82 6.779059 0.067791
31/10/2014 56.35 -0.05 -0.08865 -0.00089
30/9/2014 56.4 -2.5 -4.24448 -0.04244
29/8/2014 58.9 5.315 9.918821 0.099188
31/7/2014 53.585 -6.365 -10.6172 -0.10617
30/6/2014 59.95 0.49 0.824083 0.008241
30/5/2014 59.46 2.6 4.572635 0.045726
30/4/2014 56.86 0.76 1.354724 0.013547
31/3/2014 56.1 0.83 1.501719 0.015017
28/2/2014 55.27 2.92 5.577841 0.055778
31/1/2014 52.35 -1.56 -2.89371 -0.02894
31/12/2013 53.91 0.79 1.487199 0.014872
29/11/2013 53.12 -1.255 -2.30805 -0.02308
31/10/2013 54.375 1.895 3.610899 0.036109
30/9/2013 52.48 0.71 1.371451 0.013715
30/8/2013 51.77 -4.81 -8.50124 -0.08501
31/7/2013 56.58 0.71 1.270807 0.012708
28/6/2013 55.87 0.74 1.342282 0.013423
31/5/2013 55.13 3.64 7.069334 0.070693
30/4/2013 51.49 -0.04 -0.07762 -0.00078
28/3/2013 51.53 3.05 6.291254 0.062913
28/2/2013 48.48 2.26 4.889658 0.048897
31/1/2013 46.22 0.75 1.649439 0.016494
31/12/2012 45.47 0.23 0.5084 0.005084
30/11/2012 45.24 -0.22 -0.48394 -0.00484
Sum of rate of return 0.648407

Average rate of return E(R) 0.010807
Standard deviation 0.065328

Variance 0.004268
Beta [Cov(khc,spx)/Var(spx)] 0.390151
Security SPX Index
30/10/2012
Start Date 0:00
30/11/2017
End Date 0:00
Period M
Currency USD
Date Close Price Change % Change Ri

30/10/2017 2575.26 55.9 2.2188175 0.022188
29/9/2017 2519.36 47.71 1.9302895 0.019303
31/8/2017 2471.65 1.35 0.0546492 0.000546
31/7/2017 2470.3 46.89 1.9348769 0.019349
30/6/2017 2423.41 11.61 0.4813832 0.004814
31/5/2017 2411.8 27.6 1.157621 0.011576
28/4/2017 2384.2 21.48 0.9091217 0.009091
31/3/2017 2362.72 -0.92 -0.038923 -0.00039
28/2/2017 2363.64 84.77 3.7198261 0.037198
31/1/2017 2278.87 40.04 1.7884341 0.017884
30/12/2016 2238.83 40.02 1.8200754 0.018201
30/11/2016 2198.81 72.66 3.4174447 0.034174
31/10/2016 2126.15 -42.12 -1.942563 -0.01943
30/9/2016 2168.27 -2.68 -0.123448 -0.00123
31/8/2016 2170.95 -2.65 -0.121918 -0.00122
29/7/2016 2173.6 74.74 3.5609807 0.03561
30/6/2016 2098.86 1.9 0.0906074 0.000906
31/5/2016 2096.96 31.66 1.5329492 0.015329
29/4/2016 2065.3 5.56 0.269937 0.002699
31/3/2016 2059.74 127.51 6.5991109 0.065991
29/2/2016 1932.23 -8.01 -0.412836 -0.00413
29/1/2016 1940.24 -103.7 -5.073534 -0.05074
31/12/2015 2043.94 -36.47 -1.75302 -0.01753
30/11/2015 2080.41 1.05 0.0504963 0.000505
30/10/2015 2079.36 159.33 8.2983078 0.082983
30/9/2015 1920.03 -52.15 -2.644282 -0.02644
31/8/2015 1972.18 -131.7 -6.25808 -0.06258
31/7/2015 2103.84 40.73 1.974204 0.019742
30/6/2015 2063.11 -44.28 -2.101177 -0.02101
29/5/2015 2107.39 21.88 1.0491439 0.010491
30/4/2015 2085.51 17.62 0.8520763 0.008521
31/3/2015 2067.89 -36.61 -1.739606 -0.0174
27/2/2015 2104.5 109.51 5.4892506 0.054893
30/1/2015 1994.99 -63.91 -3.104085 -0.03104
31/12/2014 2058.9 -8.66 -0.418851 -0.00419
28/11/2014 2067.56 49.51 2.4533584 0.024534
31/10/2014 2018.05 45.76 2.3201456 0.023201
30/9/2014 1972.29 -31.08 -1.551386 -0.01551
29/8/2014 2003.37 72.7 3.7655322 0.037655
31/7/2014 1930.67 -29.56 -1.507986 -0.01508
30/6/2014 1960.23 36.66 1.9058313 0.019058
30/5/2014 1923.57 39.62 2.1030282 0.02103
30/4/2014 1883.95 11.61 0.6200797 0.006201
31/3/2014 1872.34 12.89 0.6932157 0.006932
28/2/2014 1859.45 76.86 4.3117038 0.043117
31/1/2014 1782.59 -65.77 -3.55829 -0.03558
31/12/2013 1848.36 42.55 2.3562833 0.023563
29/11/2013 1805.81 49.27 2.8049461 0.028049
31/10/2013 1756.54 74.99 4.459576 0.044596
30/9/2013 1681.55 48.58 2.9749475 0.029749
30/8/2013 1632.97 -52.76 -3.129801 -0.0313
31/7/2013 1685.73 79.45 4.9462111 0.049462
28/6/2013 1606.28 -24.46 -1.499933 -0.015
31/5/2013 1630.74 33.17 2.0762783 0.020763
30/4/2013 1597.57 28.38 1.8085764 0.018086
29/3/2013 1569.19 54.51 3.5987799 0.035988
28/2/2013 1514.68 16.57 1.1060603 0.011061
31/1/2013 1498.11 71.92 5.0428064 0.050428
31/12/2012 1426.19 10.01 0.7068311 0.007068
30/11/2012 1416.18 4.02 0.2846703 0.002847
Sum of rate of return 0.625587

Average rate of return E(R) 0.010426
Standard deviation 0.027248

Variance 0.000742
KHC US Equity SPX Index
Ri-E(R) {KHC x
Ri-E(R) Ri-E(R)^2 Ri-E(R) Ri-E(R)^2 SPX}
-0.0136437 0.00018615 0.0117622 0.00013835 -0.000160479
-0.0504353 0.00254372 0.0088769 7.8799E-05 -0.000447709
-0.0875276 0.00766108 -0.00988 9.7605E-05 0.000864729
0.01044497 0.0001091 0.0089228 7.9616E-05 9.3198E-05
-0.0819567 0.0067169 -0.005612 3.1496E-05 0.000459955
0.00921734 8.4959E-05 0.0011502 1.323E-06 1.06019E-05
-0.015432 0.00023815 -0.001335 1.7816E-06 2.05984E-05
-0.0184564 0.00034064 -0.010815 0.00011697 0.000199611
0.01405581 0.00019757 0.0267723 0.00071675 0.000376306
0.0117537 0.00013815 0.0074583 5.5627E-05 8.76631E-05
0.05863574 0.00343815 0.0077748 6.0447E-05 0.000455878
-0.0928756 0.00862587 0.0237484 0.00056399 -0.002205651
-0.0170633 0.00029116 -0.029852 0.00089112 0.000509367
-0.0105835 0.00011201 -0.01166 0.00013597 0.000123409
0.02507678 0.00062885 -0.011645 0.00013561 -0.000292024
-0.0344282 0.0011853 0.0251838 0.00063422 -0.000867032
0.05278237 0.00278598 -0.00952 9.0629E-05 -0.000502484
0.05477517 0.00300032 0.0049035 2.4044E-05 0.00026859
-0.0170443 0.00029051 -0.007727 5.9701E-05 0.000131695
0.00918781 8.4416E-05 0.0555651 0.00308748 0.000510521
-0.0241301 0.00058226 -0.014554 0.00021183 0.000351198
0.06203522 0.00384837 -0.061161 0.00374071 -0.003794158
-0.0234274 0.00054884 -0.027956 0.00078155 0.000654942
-0.0656999 0.00431648 -0.009921 9.8427E-05 0.000651811
0.09389688 0.00881662 0.0725571 0.00526453 0.006812883
-0.0394335 0.001555 -0.036869 0.00135931 0.001453866
-0.0964997 0.00931219 -0.073007 0.00532999 0.007045136
-0.0774032 0.00599125 0.009316 8.6789E-05 -0.000721091
-0.0026365 6.9511E-06 -0.031438 0.00098833 8.28852E-05
-0.0143468 0.00020583 6.544E-05 4.2822E-09 -9.38835E-07
-0.037955 0.00144058 -0.001905 3.6299E-06 7.23133E-05
0.34908997 0.12186381 -0.027822 0.00077407 -0.009712401
-0.0303968 0.00092397 0.0444665 0.00197727 -0.001351641
0.03196351 0.00102167 -0.041467 0.0017195 -0.001325426
0.03057575 0.00093488 -0.014615 0.00021358 -0.00044685
0.05698359 0.00324713 0.0141076 0.00019902 0.000803901
-0.0116935 0.00013674 0.0127755 0.00016321 -0.00014939
-0.0532518 0.00283576 -0.02594 0.00067288 0.001381345
0.08838121 0.00781124 0.0272293 0.00074144 0.00240656
-0.1169788 0.01368404 -0.025506 0.00065055 0.002983646
-0.0025662 6.5852E-06 0.0086323 7.4517E-05 -2.21519E-05
0.03491935 0.00121936 0.0106043 0.00011245 0.000370295
0.00274024 7.5089E-06 -0.004225 1.7852E-05 -1.15781E-05
0.00421019 1.7726E-05 -0.003494 1.2207E-05 -1.47097E-05
0.04497141 0.00202243 0.032691 0.0010687 0.001470162
-0.0397441 0.00157959 -0.046009 0.00211682 0.001828583
0.00406499 1.6524E-05 0.0131368 0.00017258 5.34011E-05
-0.0338875 0.00114836 0.0176235 0.00031059 -0.000597214
0.02530199 0.00064019 0.0341698 0.00116757 0.000864563
0.00290751 8.4536E-06 0.0193235 0.0003734 5.61831E-05
-0.0958194 0.00918135 -0.041724 0.00174089 0.003997969
0.00190107 3.6141E-06 0.0390361 0.00152382 7.42105E-05
0.00261582 6.8425E-06 -0.025425 0.00064645 -6.6508E-05
0.05988634 0.00358637 0.0103368 0.00010685 0.000619032
-0.0115832 0.00013417 0.0076598 5.8672E-05 -8.87249E-05
0.05210554 0.00271499 0.0255618 0.00065341 0.001331911
0.03808958 0.00145082 0.0006346 4.0272E-07 2.41718E-05
0.00568739 3.2346E-05 0.0400021 0.00160017 0.000227507
-0.005723 3.2753E-05 -0.003358 1.1274E-05 1.92161E-05
-0.0156464 0.00024481 -0.007579 5.7446E-05 0.000118589
Sum 0.017090241
Covariance 0.000289665
6.2 APPENDIX B
(Analyst Recommendation)
Credit Suisse
Target
Date Recommendation Price Close Price
11/02/17 outperform 90 78.03
09/08/17 outperform 100 81.72
08/21/17 outperform 100 84.55
08/04/17 outperform 100 86.66
07/28/17 outperform 100 87.64
05/18/17 outperform 100 90.16
05/04/17 outperform 100 89.7
04/20/17 outperform 100 92.04
03/15/17 outperform 100 91.84
02/17/17 outperform 100 96.65
02/15/17 outperform 95 91.1
12/01/16 outperform 95 80.49
11/15/16 outperform 95 81.14
11/03/16 outperform 100 86.25
08/16/16 outperform 100 88.96
08/05/16 outperform 98 88.79
08/04/16 outperform 98 85.54
08/01/16 outperform 96 85.97
05/05/16 outperform 96 82.97
05/03/16 outperform 85 78.68
03/04/16 outperform 85 77.2
02/25/16 outperform 85 74.96
02/08/16 outperform 85 71.22
01/05/16 outperform 85 73.39
12/08/15 outperform 85 71.53
11/13/15 outperform 85 70.77
11/05/15 outperform 85 75.42
10/13/15 outperform 85 73.38
08/10/15 outperform 85 78.81
07/20/15 outperform 85 80.11
07/06/15 outperform 85 72.96
Table 8: Recommendation of Kraft Heinz by Credit Suisse
Source: Bloomberg
RBC Capital Markets
Close
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
11/05/17 outperform 94 78
11/02/17 outperform 94 78.03
11/01/17 outperform 94 77.7
10/31/17 outperform 94 77.33
10/24/17 outperform 94 77.22
10/17/17 outperform 95 77.54
08/22/17 outperform 95 85.05
08/04/17 outperform 95 86.66
07/31/17 outperform 95 87.46
07/13/17 outperform 96 84.85
06/27/17 outperform 96 87.51
06/08/17 outperform 96 92.57
06/05/17 outperform 96 93.44
05/08/17 outperform 96 89.48
05/04/17 outperform 96 89.7
04/25/17 outperform 98 92.29
03/31/17 outperform 100 90.81
02/21/17 outperform 100 94.87
02/20/17 outperform 100 96.65
02/16/17 outperform 100 87.28
02/10/17 outperform 100 90.2
02/07/17 outperform 100 88.81
01/20/17 outperform 100 88.95
01/13/17 outperform 100 87.03
12/22/16 outperform 100 87.28
12/21/16 outperform 100 86.61
12/13/16 outperform 99 84.94
11/17/16 outperform 99 82.84
11/07/16 outperform 99 86.03
11/04/16 outperform 96 84.05
11/01/16 outperform 96 88.37
09/20/16 outperform 96 87.12
09/13/16 outperform 96 88.27
08/23/16 outperform 96 89.47
08/05/16 outperform 96 88.79
08/04/16 outperform 96 85.54
07/22/16 outperform 92 88.16
07/06/16 outperform 92 89.74
06/30/16 outperform 92 88.48
06/28/16 outperform 92 84.77
06/24/16 outperform 92 83.73
06/14/16 outperform 92 84.88
06/02/16 outperform 92 84.78
06/01/16 outperform 92 83.95
05/25/16 outperform 92 84.27
05/17/16 outperform 92 82.16
05/05/16 outperform 92 82.97
05/03/16 outperform 88 78.68
04/21/16 outperform 88 76.74
04/15/16 outperform 88 78.05
04/05/16 outperform 88 78.01
04/01/16 outperform 88 79.08
03/11/16 outperform 88 76.95
02/26/16 outperform 88 77.84
02/24/16 outperform 88 72.99
02/03/16 outperform 88 74.89
01/29/16 outperform 88 78.06
01/22/16 outperform 88 74.39
01/08/16 outperform 88 71.18
12/21/15 outperform 88 71.38
12/10/15 outperform 88 70.84
12/08/15 outperform 88 71.53
11/13/15 outperform 88 70.77
11/06/15 outperform 88 72.01
10/30/15 outperform 88 77.97
10/08/15 outperform 88 74.43
10/02/15 outperform 88 71.41
09/18/15 outperform 88 75.44
08/28/15 outperform 88 74.69
08/21/15 outperform 88 72.27
08/14/15 outperform 88 76.42
08/10/15 outperform 88 78.81
07/31/15 outperform 88 79.47
07/24/15 outperform 88 76.41
07/21/15 outperform 88 80.22
Table 9: Recommendation of Kraft Heinz by RBC Capital Markets
Source: Bloomberg
JP Morgan
Target Close
Date Recommendation Price Price
11/02/17 overweight 84 78.03
11/01/17 overweight 87 77.7
09/27/17 overweight 87 78.23
09/08/17 overweight 95 81.72
08/10/17 overweight 95 85.89
08/03/17 overweight 99 86.51
07/13/17 overweight 99 84.85
06/27/17 overweight 99 87.51
05/04/17 overweight 102 89.7
05/03/17 overweight 101 89.14
02/17/17 overweight 101 96.65
02/16/17 overweight 101 87.28
02/15/17 overweight 101 91.1
01/27/17 overweight 101 89.43
11/03/16 overweight 101 86.25
10/04/16 overweight 104 88.02
08/17/16 overweight 104 89.41
08/05/16 overweight 98 88.79
08/04/16 overweight 89 85.54
06/30/16 overweight 89 88.48
05/05/16 overweight 89 82.97
05/04/16 overweight 85 79.98
02/26/16 overweight 85 77.84
02/25/16 neutral 78 74.96
01/27/16 neutral 78 75.97
11/06/15 neutral 78 72.01
11/04/15 neutral 78 75.82
09/16/15 neutral 78 76.37
08/12/15 neutral 74 76.69
08/10/15 neutral 71 78.81
07/07/15 neutral 71 74.63
Table 10: Recommendation of Kraft Heinz by JP Morgan
Source: Bloomberg
6.3 APPENDIX C
(Analyst Research Reports)
Credit Suisse
Zacks Equity Research
RBC Capital Markets
JP Morgan

Assignment 1 Thaneledchemiy

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Assignment 1 Thaneledchemiy

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

CIC2004 Investment Management

Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC)

THANELEDCHEMIY A/P SELOKUMAR

Submitted on: 12/11/2017

1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 3

2.0 Security Analysis

3.0 Calculation of Risk and Return

4.0 Evaluation of Research Analysts' Reports ...................................................................................... 11-15

5.0 References ................................................................................................................................................ 16

Table 1: Moving average of FTSE KLCI for 200 days

2.1 Country Selection – Macroeconomic Analysis

Question: Explain why you choose the country.

The country that I would like

Food and beverage industry is seen to

It is undeniable fact that business cycles will affect the

Chart 4: Revenue and EPS growth of Kraft Heinz

Investors are also guaranteed with steady dividend

Table 4: Historical dividends of Kraft Heinz

Table 5: Ratios of Kraft Heinz

Although there are many other food and beverages

3.1 Expected Return

Question: Calculate the expected return.

The Arithmetic Average of rate of return

Expected return = 0.0108, 1.08% (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)

B) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Theory

rm= 1.04% (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)

Expected return = 1.06%

3.2 Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation= 6.53% (Calculated by using Excel) (Appendix A)

Rank Firm Recommendation Target Price(USD)

1st Credit Suisse Outperform (moderate buy) 95

2nd Zacks Equity Research Sell 77

3rd RBC Capital Markets Outperform (moderate buy) 94

4th JP Morgan Overweight (moderate buy) 84

Table 7: Ranking for research reports of PFE

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved from

Investopedia. Retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com

Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/

The World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://www.worldbank.org/

TRADING ECONOMICS. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/

US Department of the Treasury. Retrieved from https://www.treasury.gov/Pages/default.aspx

Zacks Equity Research. Retrieved from https://www.zacks.com/research/equity-research.php

Sum of rate of return 0.648407

Standard deviation 0.065328

Date Close Price Change % Change Ri

Sum of rate of return 0.625587

Standard deviation 0.027248

Zacks Equity Research

RBC Capital Markets

Вам также может понравиться