2.clasificación y Categorización de Hidrocarburos

Clasificación y Categorización de Reservas de Hidrocarburos
Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Presentation Outline
• PRMS Overview
• PRMS Matrix Classification
• Uncertainty in Reserves and Resources Estimation

3
What is PRMS?
PRMS is a framework for classifying and categorizing estimates

of petroleum reserves and resources.
PRMS provides an industry consensus on basic principles and

high level guidelines, that if adopted, will improve internal
assessment consistency … and help companies manage their
business.
What PRMS is not?
PRMS was not written as a set of public disclosure rules – issuers

should continue to consult those rules established under the applicable
regulations.

4
PRMS - Major Principles
1. The System is “Project–Based”.

2. Classification is based on project’s chance of commerciality.
Categorization is based on recoverable uncertainty.
3. Base case uses evaluator’s forecast of future conditions.
4. Provides more granularity for project management.
5. Estimates based on deterministic and/or probabilistic methods.
6. Applies to both conventional and unconventional resources.
7. Reserves /resources are estimated in terms of the sales products.

PRMS Overview
project PRMS is a “Project-Based” system

property
reservoir
Net Project
Reservoir recoverable
resource (production & cash
(in-place volumes)
flow schedules)
Property
(ownership/contract terms)

6
Deciding “What is the Project”
A project is defined by the evaluator as the level at which

cash flows are tracked to assess economic performance and
management makes an investment decision .
Mega-project
project project
sub-project sub-project sub-project sub-project
Project is the level at which we define the risks and uncertainties.

It is where we integrate commercial and technical uncertainties.

SPE/WPC/AAPG: Sistema de Clasificación de Recursos (adaptado)

Prospective Resources
Quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially

recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by future development projects.
Prospective Resources have both an associated chance of discovery and
a chance of development.
Prospective Resources are further subdivided in accordance with the level of
certainty associated with recoverable estimates assuming their discovery and
development and may be sub-classified based on project maturity.
Prospect: potential accumulation defined as viable exploration target

Lead: potential accumulation poorly defined; need more data or study to
upgrade to prospect
Play: prospective trend that requires more data or study to upgrade to
specific lead or prospect

Prospective Resources
Source : SERSEN, M. (2008) “EVOLUCIÓN EN LA TÉCNICA DE PRUEBA Y EVALUACIÓN DE POZOS EXPLORATORIOS EN YACIMIENTOS DE CRUDO PESADO”

Contingent Resources
Quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially

recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently
considered commercially recoverable.
Contingent Resources may include, for example, projects for which there are
currently no viable markets, or where commercial recovery is dependent on
technology under development, or where evaluation of the accumulation is
insufficient to clearly assess commerciality.
Contingent Resources are further categorized in accordance with the level of
certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on
project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status (marginal or
sub-marginal).
Development pending:
requires more data or study to confirm commerciality (Raya)
Development on hold:
awaiting removal of constraints- technical, environmental, political, marketing
Development not viable:
no plans to develop or acquire additional data

Contingent Resources
Recursos
Contingentes
Recursos
Prospectivos

Reserves
Quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable

from known accumulations from a given date forward under defined
conditions.
Reserves must further satisfy four criteria: they must be discovered,
recoverable, commercial, and remaining (as of the evaluation date)
based on the development project(s) applied.
Reserves are further categorized in accordance with the level of certainty
associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on project
maturity and/or characterized by development and production status
(developed or undeveloped).
On production: producing and selling petroleum to market (SM)

Under development: approvals obtained, development ongoing (SAGARI)
Planned for development: intent to develop, but all facets not yet finalized
(SME)

SPE/WPC Reserve Definitions
SEC
Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC)
SPE/WPC/AAPG
Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
World Petroleum Congress (WPC)
American Association of Petroleum Geologist (AAPG)

Reserves Categories
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH
Category Descriptive Term Definition
Proved Reasonable certainty SEC – 1978

SPE/WPC/AAPG – 1997
Probable More likely than not to SPE/WPC/AAPG - 1997

be recoverable
Possible Less likely than probable SPE/WPC/AAPG - 1997

Reserves Categories
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
Category Descriptive Term
Proved (1P) At least 90 % probability (P90)

that the quantities will be equal or exceed the low (1P) estimate
Proved + Probable (2P) At least 50 % probability (P50)

that the quantities will be equal or exceed the best (2P) estimate
Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) At least 10 % probability (P10)

that the quantities will be equal or exceed the high (3P) estimate

Categorización de Reservas
Recurso Total de
Petróleo y Gas
Descubierto Prospectivo
Recursos Contingentes Recursos Recuperables
Producción Acumulada
Reservas
Probadas
No desarrolladas
Desarrolladas
CATEGORÍA CERTIDUMBRE
En Producción
1P Alta (90%)
No Producidas
2P Media (50%)
No Probadas
3P Baja (10%) Probables
Posibles

Reserves Categories 2008
Source : PERUPETRO. (2008)

Reserves & Resources Classification 2015
Gas Fields
Discoveries Source : PERUPETRO. (2014)
Prospects
Leads
SAGARI FIELD
MASHIRA PROSPECT Reservas Probadas No Desarrolladas
Recursos Prospectivos Recursos Contingentes
KINTERONI
PROBADAS DESARROLLADAS
3 development wells (2007-2011)
1 discovery well (1987)
MAPI PROSPECT 3 development wells (2011-2013)
Recursos Prospectivos
Cum. Gas production: 1 101 BCF (since 2004)
Cum. condensate production: 32 MBbl
Cum. Gas production: 544 BCF (since 2008)
KINTERONI 1
Cum. Gas production: 347 BCF (since 2009)
18
Ingeniería de Reservorios II MIPAYA Mayo 2017
Normativa SEC: Reservas Probadas
RESERVAS PROBADAS:
• Son aquellos volúmenes de Hidrocarburos (Petróleo, gas)

que por análisis de la información geológica y de
ingeniería, se pueden estimar con una precisión
razonable, que serán recuperadas comercialmente de los
reservorios conocidos, desde una fecha en adelante y
bajo condiciones económicas, métodos operativos y leyes
gubernamentales actuales.
• El termino certeza razonable intenta expresar un alto grado

de confianza que los volúmenes van a ser recuperados.

Proved Reserves
PROVED DEVELOPED (PD)
Developed Producing Reserves (PDP) are expected to be recovered from

completion intervals that are open and producing at the time of the estimate.
Developed Non-producing Reserves (PDNP) include shut-in and behind-pipe
Reserves.
Shut-in Reserves (SI or PDNP) are expected to be recovered from
completion intervals which are open at the time of the estimate but
which have not started producing,
wells which were shut-in for market conditions or pipeline connections,
wells not capable of production for mechanical reasons
Behind-pipe Reserves (BP or PDNP) expected to be recovered from zones
in existing wells which will require additional completion work or future re-
completion prior to the start of production.

Proved Reserves
PROVED UNDEVELOPED RESERVES (PUD’s):
• Those reserves that are expected to be recovered from new wells

on un-drilled acreage, or from existing wells where a relatively
major expenditure is required for recompletion.
• Reserves on undrilled acreage shall be limited to those drilling

units offsetting productive units that are reasonably certain of
production when drilled.
• Proved reserves for other undrilled units can be claimed only where
it can be demonstrated with certainty, that there is continuity of
production from the existing productive formation.

SEC Reserves PUD
• Seismic data could be

used to help support this
claim by showing reservoir
continuity between the
wells, but the required
data would be the
conclusive evidence of
communication from
production or pressure
tests

Normativa SEC: Reasonable Certainty
(Ron Winfrey SPE Forum 2000)
“Therefore, to meet the requirement of reasonable

certainty in situations with less data, such as PUDs, your
estimate should be conservative to ensure any future
revision will be positive rather than negative.”
“Reasonable certainty is more than just the technical

considerations that oil and gas is recoverable. It also includes
resolution of how other barriers such as financial,
environmental, marketing, legal and political will be
overcome.”
“The ultimate test of reasonable certainty is

reservoir performance.”

Normativa SEC: Economic Producibility
Well A is producing from Sand A. It is appropriate to book

proved reserves for Sand C if log, core and/or wireline
formation test data support its producibility since it can be
considered an analog to Sand A.
The shaly Sand B and the Carbonate D can not be booked as
proved without a conclusive formation test since they
are not analogs to Sand A.
Normativa SEC: Areal Limits
• Generally speaking, up to 8 proved undeveloped locations can

offset an existing proved location.

Normativa SEC: Vertical Limits
• The fluid contact criteria should be applied on a sand-by - sand

basis, unless there is compelling evidence that the sands are in
hydraulic communication and share a common fluid contact.

SEC vs. SPE/WPC: “Proved Area” (LKH)
Determination of Lowest-Known Hydrocarbons

SEC vs. SPE/WPC: “Proved Area” (LKH)
Determination of Lowest-Known Hydrocarbons

Normativa SEC:
Areal and Vertical Limits Summary

SPE/WPC/AAPG Reserves Probable
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves which analysis

of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely
than not to be recoverable. In this context, when
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a
50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will
equal or exceed the sum of estimated proved plus probable
reserves.
Probable reserves are reserve estimates in known reservoirs

which cannot yet be considered reasonably proved on the
basis of current geologic and engineering information.

SPE/WPC Reserve Definitions - Probable
(1) Reserves anticipated to be proved by normal step-out drilling

where sub-surface control is inadequate to classify these
reserves as proved,
(2) Reserves in formations that appear to be productive based on
well log characteristics but lack core data or definitive tests
and which are not analogous to producing or proved reservoirs
in the area,
(3) Incremental reserves attributable to infill drilling that could
have been classified as proved if closer statutory spacing had
been approved at the time of the estimate,
(4) Reserves attributable to improved recovery methods that have
been established by repeated commercially successful
applications when:
(a) a project or pilot is planned but not in operation and,
(b) rock, fluid, and reservoir characteristics appear favorable
for commercial application,

(5) Reserves in an area of the formation that appears to be

separated from the proved area by faulting and the geologic
interpretation indicates the subject area is structurally higher
than the proved area,
(6) Reserves attributable to a future workover, treatment, re-
treatment, change of equipment, or other mechanical
procedures, where such procedure has not been proved
successful in wells which exhibit similar behavior in analogous
reservoirs, and,
(7) Incremental reserves in proved reservoirs where an alternative
interpretation of performance or volumetric data indicates
more reserves than can be classified as proved.

Typical Examples
• Volumes below “lowest known” hydrocarbons

• Recovery factor greater than proved volumes
• Untested zones & Questionable log analysis – low Rt, high Sw, low
porosity
• Fault blocks without penetrations
• Down-spacing without regulatory approval or questionable
drainage patterns
• Market, contract limitations
• Enhanced recovery without successful testing
• Certain step-out development wells
• Work-over treatments without analogies
• Alternative performance interpretation

Probable Reserves
Volumes below “lowest known”

hydrocarbons (cont.)
Proved reserves may have been booked
based on volumetrics estimated to a
LKG shown with the thick red line.
Seismic amplitude analysis may be used
in this case to estimate the probable
reserves

PROBABLE RESERVES

Probable Reserves
Recovery Factors greater than Untested Zones and Questionable Log

those used for proved volumes Analysis
In the gas reservoir of unknown

aquifer strength example, the
recovery factor to estimate proved
reserves should reflect the
possibility of water encroachment
while a pressure depletion recovery
factor may be appropriate for
probable reserves
Well A is producing from Sand A.
Fault Blocks without penetrations Enhanced Recovery without successful

testing
Productive fault
block B has two
offsetting fault Enough engineering and geologic
blocks. evidence that these recovery
operations are more likely than not
to result in additional recoveries.

Probable Reserves
Certain Infill and Step-out Development

Wells
Location 1 and 2 could be classified as
proved undeveloped.
The other two locations to the
northwest and southeast of the
existing well may have been inferred
from seismic anomalies and may be
classified as probable since they are
located in separate, yet unproven
reservoirs.
Alternative DCA
The proved reserves were estimated
using exponential decline (gray
projection).
This well has been hydraulically
fractured and produces from a tight
formation.
Require a high degree of
interpretation from the reserves
evaluator.

SPE/WPC Reserve Definitions - Possible
• Possible reserves are those unproved reserves which analysis of

geological and engineering data suggests are less likely to be
recoverable than probable reserves.
• In this context, when probabilistic methods are used, there

should be at least a 10% probability that the quantities
actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of estimated
proved plus probable plus possible reserves.

(1) Reserves which, based on geological interpretations, could possibly exist

beyond areas classified as probable,
(2) Reserves in formations that appear to be petroleum bearing based on log
and core analysis but may not be productive at commercial rates,
(3) Incremental reserves attributed to infill drilling that are subject to
technical uncertainty,
(4) Reserves attributed to improved recovery methods when
(a) a project or pilot is planned but not in operation and
(b) rock, fluid, and reservoir characteristics are such that a reasonable
doubt exists that the project will be commercial, and
(5) Reserves in an area of the formation that appears to be separated from
the proved area by faulting and geological interpretation indicates the
subject area is structurally lower than the proved area.

Typical
Examples
Questionable Log Analysis
Volumes below the probable economic limit
Untested Fault Segments that do not qualify as probable

Uncertainty in Reserves Estimation
Static Model
Dynamic Model
• Seismic processing
• Drive mechanism & recovery factor
• Rock types and heterogeneities
• Changes in fluid composition
• Spatial distribution & facies Modeling
• Relative permeability behaviour
• Fluid contacts placing & size reservoir
• Faults transmissibility
Portafolio de Proyectos de
Inversión
Main groups of Uncertainties in Estimation of Reserves
Production Engineering Surface Facilities Model

Economic Variables • Compressors system capacity
• Oil prices • Well productivity
• Artificial lift efficiency • Volume flow metering
• Operative costs
• Skin damage prediction • Pumps displacement efficiency
• Oil & gas demand forecast

Uncertainty in
Calculation of Technical
Recoverable Volumes

Matrix of Classification and Categorization

The Holistic Probabilistic Model:
1
Gas Re serves  ( Bulkvolume ntg )S g ( )(1  shrinkage)(1  plantlosses )( RF )
g
Volumetric estimation Petrophysics PVT’s data

evaluation
Lower Nia Reservoir Net

Pay map (2P)
Production
Performance MBE

Reserves Categories

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Clasificación y Categorización de Reservas de Hidrocarburos

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

• PRMS Matrix Classification

• Uncertainty in Reserves and Resources Estimation

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

PRMS is a framework for classifying and categorizing estimates

PRMS provides an industry consensus on basic principles and

What PRMS is not?

PRMS was not written as a set of public disclosure rules – issuers

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

PRMS - Major Principles

1. The System is “Project–Based”.

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

project PRMS is a “Project-Based” system

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Deciding “What is the Project”

A project is defined by the evaluator as the level at which

sub-project sub-project sub-project sub-project

Project is the level at which we define the risks and uncertainties.

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially

Prospect: potential accumulation defined as viable exploration target

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable

On production: producing and selling petroleum to market (SM)

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Category Descriptive Term Definition

Proved Reasonable certainty SEC – 1978

Probable More likely than not to SPE/WPC/AAPG - 1997

Possible Less likely than probable SPE/WPC/AAPG - 1997

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Category Descriptive Term

Proved (1P) At least 90 % probability (P90)

Proved + Probable (2P) At least 50 % probability (P50)

Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) At least 10 % probability (P10)

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Recursos Contingentes Recursos Recuperables

3P Baja (10%) Probables

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

Source : PERUPETRO. (2008)

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

• Son aquellos volúmenes de Hidrocarburos (Petróleo, gas)

• El termino certeza razonable intenta expresar un alto grado

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

PROVED DEVELOPED (PD)

Developed Producing Reserves (PDP) are expected to be recovered from

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

PROVED UNDEVELOPED RESERVES (PUD’s):

• Those reserves that are expected to be recovered from new wells

• Reserves on undrilled acreage shall be limited to those drilling

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

• Seismic data could be

Ingeniería de Reservorios II Mayo 2017

“Therefore, to meet the requirement of reasonable

“Reasonable certainty is more than just the technical

“The ultimate test of reasonable certainty is