Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 4

GNZ ingenieria hidraulica e hidrologia

gonzoamd@gnzhiraulica.com
PROYECION DE POBLACION Y DEMANDA
Municipio: Inspección La Victoria
Medtodo proyeccion Población 2042
Promedio 9,843 habitantes
Otro Usos
Polación Horizonte Dotacion Neta Altura Media Flotante 0.0%
< 12.500 130 1850 msnm Comercio 0.0%
Oficial 0.0%

Poblacion dneta dbruta Qmd Qfoltant Qcomer Qoficial Qmd QMD QMH Demanda
Año IANC
(hab) (l/hab-día) (l/hab-día) (l/s) (l/s) (l/s) (l/s) (l/s) (l/s; k1=1.3) (l/s; k2=1.6) m3/año
2017 6,326 130.0 25.0% 173.3 12.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.69 16.50 26.40 400,225
2018 6,444 130.0 25.0% 173.3 12.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.93 16.81 26.89 407,701
2019 6,564 130.0 25.0% 173.3 13.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.17 17.12 27.39 415,280
2020 6,685 130.0 25.0% 173.3 13.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.41 17.44 27.90 422,961
2021 6,808 130.0 25.0% 173.3 13.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.66 17.76 28.41 430,748
2022 6,933 130.0 25.0% 173.3 13.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.91 18.08 28.93 438,643
2023 7,060 130.0 25.0% 173.3 14.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.16 18.41 29.46 446,647
2024 7,188 130.0 25.0% 173.3 14.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.42 18.75 29.99 454,763
2025 7,318 130.0 25.0% 173.3 14.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.68 19.09 30.54 462,993
2026 7,450 130.0 25.0% 173.3 14.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.95 19.43 31.09 471,340
2027 7,584 130.0 25.0% 173.3 15.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.21 19.78 31.65 479,805
2028 7,720 130.0 25.0% 173.3 15.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.49 20.13 32.21 488,391
2029 7,857 130.0 25.0% 173.3 15.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.76 20.49 32.79 497,101
2030 7,997 130.0 25.0% 173.3 16.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.04 20.86 33.37 505,936
2031 8,139 130.0 25.0% 173.3 16.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.33 21.23 33.96 514,900
2032 8,282 130.0 25.0% 173.3 16.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.62 21.60 34.56 523,994
2033 8,428 130.0 25.0% 173.3 16.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.91 21.98 35.17 533,222
2034 8,576 130.0 25.0% 173.3 17.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.21 22.37 35.79 542,586
2035 8,726 130.0 25.0% 173.3 17.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.51 22.76 36.41 552,088
2036 8,879 130.0 25.0% 173.3 17.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.81 23.16 37.05 561,732
2037 9,034 130.0 25.0% 173.3 18.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.12 23.56 37.70 571,520
2038 9,191 130.0 25.0% 173.3 18.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.44 23.97 38.35 581,456
2039 9,350 130.0 25.0% 173.3 18.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.76 24.38 39.02 591,541
2040 9,512 130.0 25.0% 173.3 19.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.08 24.81 39.69 601,779
2041 9,676 130.0 25.0% 173.3 19.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.41 25.24 40.38 612,173
2042 9,843 130.0 25.0% 173.3 19.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.75 25.67 41.07 622,727

proyeccion poblacion y demanda domestica.xlsx -- La Victoria


pag. 1 de 4
GNZ ingenieria hidraulica e hidrologia

gonzoamd@gnzhiraulica.com
PROYECION DE POBLACION
Municipio: Inspección La Victoria Inspecion LA Vicxortia
Censos: El Colegio (Resto) Suscriptores 1830
1985 9685 Dnes/habitacional 3.2
1993 10080 0.00500 Poblacion 5856 hab 0.39059969
2005 12433 0.01748 Area 2150 ha 0.18319775
r r k i 21.5 km2
Tasa 196.08333 0.01764 0.011241.74196
85.36
Modelo de Proyección - Resto Poblacion
Año Año
Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus Promedio Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus
2017 14,786 15,335 14,228 15,408 14,783 2017 5,775 5,990 5,558 6,018
2018 14,982 15,606 14,389 15,692 14,992 2018 5,852 6,096 5,620 6,129
2019 15,178 15,881 14,552 15,982 15,204 2019 5,929 6,203 5,684 6,242
2020 15,374 16,161 14,716 16,279 15,417 2020 6,005 6,313 5,748 6,358
2021 15,570 16,446 14,883 16,582 15,633 2021 6,082 6,424 5,813 6,477
2022 15,766 16,736 15,051 16,893 15,851 2022 6,158 6,537 5,879 6,598
2023 15,963 17,031 15,221 17,211 16,072 2023 6,235 6,652 5,945 6,723
2024 16,159 17,332 15,393 17,537 16,294 2024 6,312 6,770 6,013 6,850
2025 16,355 17,637 15,567 17,870 16,520 2025 6,388 6,889 6,080 6,980
2026 16,551 17,948 15,743 18,212 16,747 2026 6,465 7,011 6,149 7,113
2027 16,747 18,265 15,921 18,562 16,978 2027 6,541 7,134 6,219 7,250
2028 16,943 18,587 16,101 18,921 17,210 2028 6,618 7,260 6,289 7,390
2029 17,139 18,915 16,283 19,289 17,446 2029 6,694 7,388 6,360 7,534
2030 17,335 19,249 16,467 19,666 17,684 2030 6,771 7,519 6,432 7,682
2031 17,531 19,588 16,653 20,053 17,924 2031 6,848 7,651 6,505 7,833
2032 17,727 19,934 16,841 20,451 18,167 2032 6,924 7,786 6,578 7,988
2033 17,923 20,285 17,032 20,859 18,413 2033 7,001 7,923 6,653 8,147
2034 18,119 20,643 17,224 21,278 18,662 2034 7,077 8,063 6,728 8,311
2035 18,316 21,007 17,419 21,709 18,914 2035 7,154 8,205 6,804 8,479
2036 18,512 21,378 17,616 22,151 19,168 2036 7,231 8,350 6,881 8,652
2037 18,708 21,755 17,815 22,606 19,426 2037 7,307 8,497 6,959 8,830
2038 18,904 22,138 18,016 23,075 19,686 2038 7,384 8,647 7,037 9,013
2039 19,100 22,529 18,220 23,556 19,950 2039 7,460 8,800 7,117 9,201
2040 19,296 22,926 18,426 24,052 20,216 2040 7,537 8,955 7,197 9,395
2041 19,492 23,330 18,634 24,563 20,486 2041 7,614 9,113 7,279 9,594
2042 19,688 23,742 18,845 25,090 20,758 2042 7,690 9,274 7,361 9,800

Proyección Poblacion 25,000

30,000 23,000
25,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
15,000
17,000
10,000

5,000 15,000

0 13,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus

proyeccion poblacion y demanda domestica.xlsx -- La Victoria


pag. 2 de 4
GNZ ingenieria hidraulica e hidrologia

gonzoamd@gnzhiraulica.com
PROYECION DE POBLACION
Municipio Cabecera Resto Municipio: AUAVIC
Censos: AUAVIC
2012 5718
2014 6000 0.02407
11864.1 128.1 11736.0 ha 2017 6326 0.01764
118640639.0 1281119.3 117359519.8 m2 r r k i
118.6 1.3 117.4 km2 Tasa 108.66667 0.01779 0.02085
1.76321
49.37
Modelo de Proyección - con Base AUAVIC
Año
Promedio Censos: El Colegio (Resto) Modelo Tasa Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus
5,774 Año Poblacion Artimetico 196.08 0 2017 6,326 6,326 6,326 6,326
5,856 1985 9685 Geometrico 0.0176 1 2018 6,435 6,439 6,459 6,439
5,939 1993 10080 Exponencial 0.0112 2 2019 6,543 6,553 6,595 6,553
6,022 2005 12433 Wappaus 1.7420 3 2020 6,652 6,670 6,734 6,670
6,106 4 2021 6,761 6,788 6,876 6,789
6,191 5 2022 6,869 6,909 7,021 6,911
6,278 6 2023 6,978 7,032 7,169 7,034
6,365 Censos: El Colegio (Resto) AUAVIC 7 2024 7,087 7,157 7,320 7,160
6,453 Año Poblacion Suscriptores Población Crcimetio 8 2025 7,195 7,285 7,474 7,289
6,542 1985 9685 0 9 2026 7,304 7,414 7,632 7,420
6,631 1993 10080 0 10 2027 7,413 7,546 7,793 7,553
6,722 2005 12433 0 11 2028 7,521 7,680 7,957 7,690
6,814 2012 1787 5718 12 2029 7,630 7,817 8,125 7,829
6,907 2013 1828 5850 41 13 2030 7,739 7,956 8,296 7,971
7,001 2014 1875 6000 47 14 2031 7,847 8,098 8,471 8,116
7,096 2015 1930 6176 55 15 2032 7,956 8,242 8,649 8,263
7,192 2016 1959 6269 29 16 2033 8,065 8,388 8,831 8,415
7,289 2017 1977 6326 18 17 2034 8,173 8,538 9,018 8,569
7,388 18 2035 8,282 8,690 9,208 8,726
7,487 19 2036 8,391 8,844 9,402 8,887
7,588 20 2037 8,499 9,002 9,600 9,052
7,689 21 2038 8,608 9,162 9,802 9,220
7,792 22 2039 8,717 9,325 10,009 9,393
7,896 23 2040 8,825 9,491 10,219 9,569
8,002 24 2041 8,934 9,659 10,435 9,749
8,108 25 2042 9,043 9,831 10,655 9,933

10,000 11,000

9,000 10,000

8,000 9,000

7,000 8,000

6,000 7,000

5,000 6,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus

proyeccion poblacion y demanda domestica.xlsx -- La Victoria


pag. 3 de 4
GNZ ingenieria hidraulica e hidrologia

gonzoamd@gnzhiraulica.com

2012 5718
2014 6000
2017 6326
r r k i
196.08333 0.01764 0.01124 1.74196
85.35587
n Base AUAVIC Modelo de Proyección - AUAVIC con Base DANE
Año
Promedio Artimetico Geometrico Exponencial Wappaus Promedio
6,326 2017 6,326 6,326 6,326 6,326 6,326
6,444 2018 6,522 6,438 6,398 6,437 6,452
6,564 2019 6,718 6,551 6,470 6,550 6,580
6,685 2020 6,914 6,667 6,543 6,665 6,708
6,808 2021 7,110 6,784 6,617 6,783 6,837
6,933 2022 7,306 6,904 6,692 6,902 6,967
7,060 2023 7,503 7,026 6,767 7,024 7,099
7,188 2024 7,699 7,150 6,844 7,147 7,231
7,318 2025 7,895 7,276 6,921 7,274 7,364
7,450 2026 8,091 7,404 6,999 7,402 7,498
7,584 2027 8,287 7,535 7,079 7,533 7,633
7,720 2028 8,483 7,667 7,159 7,667 7,770
7,857 2029 8,679 7,803 7,239 7,803 7,907
7,997 2030 8,875 7,940 7,321 7,941 8,046
8,139 2031 9,071 8,080 7,404 8,083 8,185
8,282 2032 9,267 8,223 7,488 8,227 8,326
8,428 2033 9,463 8,368 7,572 8,375 8,468
8,576 2034 9,659 8,515 7,658 8,525 8,611
8,726 2035 9,856 8,666 7,745 8,678 8,755
8,879 2036 10,052 8,819 7,832 8,835 8,901
9,034 2037 10,248 8,974 7,921 8,995 9,047
9,191 2038 10,444 9,132 8,010 9,158 9,195
9,350 2039 10,640 9,293 8,101 9,325 9,345
9,512 2040 10,836 9,457 8,192 9,495 9,495
9,676 2041 11,032 9,624 8,285 9,670 9,647
9,843 2042 11,228 9,794 8,379 9,848 9,800

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

2045
6,000
Wappaus 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

proyeccion poblacion y demanda domestica.xlsx -- La Victoria


pag. 4 de 4

Похожие интересы