Traffic Accident Detection Using Random Forest
Classifier
Nejdet Dogru
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering
and Natural Sciences
Francuske Revolucije bb, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and
Herzegovina
E-mail: nejdet.dogru@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract-The Internet of Things (IoT) has been growing
in recent years with the improvements in several different
applications in the military, marine, intelligent
transportation, smart health, smart grid, smart home and
smart city domains. Although IoT brings significant
advantages over traditional information and communication
(ICT) technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems
(ITS), these applications are still very rare. Although there is
a continuous improvement in road and vehicle safety, as well
as improvements in IoT, the road traffic accidents have been
increasing over the last decades. Therefore, it is necessary to
find an effective way to reduce the frequency and severity of
traffic accidents. Hence, this paper presents an intelligent
traffic accident detection system in which vehicles exchange
their microscopic vehicle variables with each other. The
proposed system uses simulated data collected from
vehicular ad-hoc networks (VANETs) based on the speeds
and coordinates of the vehicles and then, it sends traffic alerts
to the drivers. Furthermore, it shows how machine learning
methods can be exploited to detect accidents on freeways in
ITS. It is shown that if position and velocity values of every
vehicle are given, vehicles’ behavior could be analyzed and
accidents can be detected easily. Supervised machine
learning algorithms such as Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random
Forests (RF) are implemented on traffic data to develop a
model to distinguish accident cases from normal cases. The
performance of RF algorithm, in terms of its accuracy, was
found superior to ANN and SVM algorithms. RF algorithm
has showed better performance with 91.56% accuracy than
SVM with 88.71% and ANN with 90.02% accuracy.
Keywords- Internet of Things (IoT); vehicular ad-hoc
networks (VANETs); Accident Detection; Machine Learning;
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN); Random Forests; Support
Vector Machines (SVM); Traffic Simulation.
I. INTRODUCTION
The technological improvements in wireless
communication, and digital electronics technologies
accomplished the development of Internet of Things (IoT).
The data created from IoT devices can be use in the
investigation of certain events or decisions [1]. Rizwan et
al. [2] proposed a low cost, real-time traffic management
system which employs IoT devices and sensors to collect
real-time traffic information. The collected traffic data are
then used to analyze traffic density.
40
Abdulhamit Subasi
Effat University, College of Engineering,
Jeddah, 21478, Saudi Arabia
E-mail: absubasi@effatuniversity.edu.sa
Nowadays Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSs)
are getting more attention because of the growing number
of vehicles which cause traffic congestions, bottle-necks
and incidents. In an ITS, Information and Communication
Technologies (ICT) can be integrated with transport
networks, vehicles and users, to improve safety and
management of transport networks. An inspiring issue in
ITSs is to differentiate an incident from a congestion in
traffic. An incident is defined as “an unexpected event that
temporarily disrupts the traffic flow on a segment of a
roadway” by Kamran and Haas [3] and Srinivasan, Jin, and
Cheu [4]. An Incident Detection System (IDS) is a part of
the ITSs, and it received substantial attention recently.
IDSs can detect incidents, or unexpected situations which
may cause traffic accidents. A precise and early detection
of incidents is very important in traffic management. There
are two types of IDS. In the first type, data is harvested
from fixed sensors located in the road infrastructure, such
as video recognition cameras, closed-circuit cameras,
infrared sensors, RFID sensors, and inductive loop sensors,
[5] [6] [7]. In the second type, sensor technology within the
vehicle helps to obtain a greater amount of information
than the first type [8]. In this paper, an ITS which can detect
in real-time traffic incidents from the analysis of VANET
data collected from moving vehicles is presented. The
proposed scheme uses data mining techniques to detect the
incident. The proposed scheme is envisioned to be a
valuable tool to prevent traffic accidents. The data is
collected from VANET and analyzed in real-time by means
of an expert system. The data collected by the system can
be used to take actions for preventing accidents in highway.
In fact, the possibility of monitoring real-time incidents in
the highway may enable police to normalize vehicular
traffic by diverting vehicles from the incident location,
regulate speed limits, inform emergency services,
dynamically offer route information, and monitor the
demand and capacity of the road network [9].
Incidents on highways are the primary reason which
causes low efficiency and utilization. During 1970s,
freeway management systems started developing
automatic incident detection (AID), and researches have
been done on many methods for automatic incident
detection for last forty years [10]. AID has become a
critical part of traffic management systems. AID targeted
to decrease traffic jam and reducing traffic accidents by
analyzing real time traffic parameters and transferring them
to traffic authorities [11].
If accidents cannot be observed and removed
immediately, traffic delay will be longer, mobility will be
decreased and sometimes the second traffic accident might
occur. An importance of AID took much interest from
researches and a number of AID methods have been
developed and implemented. Many studies investigated
that probe vehicles can produce data about traffic
situations, such as traffic accidents and traffic jam [17]–
[18]. Real time data acquisition from probe vehicles
became possible with the latest improvements in vehicle-
to-infrastructure (V2I) and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V)
wireless communications [15]. Probe vehicles can be used
as mobile sensors in the traffic flow. They can exchange
information with infrastructure units that keeps record of
vehicle’s location and speed. Travelling time between two
points is one of the useful information that is obtained from
utilization of probe vehicles. Amount of probe vehicles in
the traffic plays important role [16].
Rapid developments in mobile computing and
communication technologies created new study areas in
ITS. Distributed traffic information system is one of them
where vehicles can exchange data with each other.
Vehicular ad hoc network (VANET) is result of these
studies. Equipped vehicles can exchange information about
congestions or hazardous situations [17].
This paper presents a method for detecting accidents in
highway using microscopic vehicle information, which is
likely to be made available from vehicle to vehicle systems
where vehicles exchange information to improve mobility
and safety. In proposed method, vehicles that are equipped
with V2V communication devices work together to
determine occurrence of accidents using machine learning
algorithms. Three machine learning algorithm are
examined namely artificial neural networks (ANNs),
support vector machines (SVMs), and random forests
(RFs). Each equipped vehicle processes the information
from other vehicles to determine traffic condition.
Performance of proposed method using ANN, SVM, and
RF in a microscopic traffic simulation environment has
been evaluated. The performance of RF model, in terms of
its detection rate, false-alarm rate was found to be superior
to ANN and SVM models.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2
reviews VANETs, efforts on traffic accident detection,
SUMO, and classification methods. Section 3 presents
proposed method, simulation environment and results, and
comparison between 3 methods. Conclusions are given in
section 4.
II. RELATED WORK
Highway accidents cause notable amount of delay and cost
to public. Research has indicated that efficiency of
highways is decreased 33% by accidents that has already
removed to the side of highways, 50% by single-lane
blocking accidents, and 79% by two-lane blocking
accidents. Accident detection is the system that brings
accidents to highway managers’ attention. The effect of
41
accidents can be diminished by taking various actions, such
as route change advice, blocking some part of road, the use
of traffic boards. Detection of accidents allows traffic
managers to remove the accident immediately, to notify the
approaching traffic, and decrease the risk of secondary
accidents [16].
Methods for automatically detecting incidents, accidents,
and other emergency events on highways have been
present since 1980s. Most of studies and implementations
have been based on loop detectors. New sensors and other
data sources have refreshed the interest in automatic
accident detection algorithms. Probe vehicles can be
considered an example of new data sources. Probe vehicles
periodically send location and speed information to the
central management. Probe vehicles can be used as mobile
sensors in the traffic flow. Travel time is one of the useful
information that is calculated from probe vehicle
measurements. Probe vehicle relate accident detection
algorithms are developed under consideration of possible
number of probe vehicles in the traffic stream [16].
The latest advances in artificial intelligent technology
enabled researches to design automatic accident detection
systems. In those studies, condition of traffic flow can be
separated as normal and accident. Other techniques include
time series, pattern recognition techniques, filtering fuzzy
set, and support vector machine (SVM). Several accident
detection techniques have been developed using SVM and
tested with real freeway data. SVM based techniques have
showed better performance than neural network based
techniques at detecting accidents for same data set [11].
Advances in vehicular communications made use of
real-time microscopic values possible. Nonetheless,
microscopic variables have not been utilized enough in
accident detection studies. Some accident detection
methods have employed inter-vehicle spacing, lane change
tracking, relative speed and inter-vehicle time gap in their
studies. Sheu [18] has used lane change information from
loop detectors to detect accidents, but this method is
limited with location of loop detectors. Vehicular-based
Networking and Computing grid (VGrid) employed
location information to decide if vehicle waits in a queue
and distribute this information to other neighboring
vehicles. Wireless local danger warning (WILLWARN)
[19] collects microscopic value measurements from
sensors to identify potential dangers. But hazard-warning
notifications are the only messages that were exchanged
among vehicles. Vehicle Infrastructure Integration with
Artificial Neural Network employ speed and lane changing
profile of each vehicle to detect accidents. Effectiveness of
these systems depends on deployment of road side
communication units which periodically collects
information from probe vehicles. Since installation of road
side unit in a large area is expensive, implementation of
VII-ANN, VII-SVM and NOTICE for accident detection
will be limited to area with road side units [21]. Our study
focuses on utilization of vehicle to vehicle communication,
since deployment of road side units in large scale will not
be realized soon. In our study, vehicles will receive
microscopic variables from other vehicles and determine if
accident is happening.
Bacon et al. [8], used real-time traffic values from
mobile and fixed sensors to assess the degree of traffic
congestion in the city in order to deliver traffic information.
[20] adapted freeway incident detection method for urban
scenario using support vector machine. D’Andrea &
Marcelloni [9] proposed a system able to identify traffic
incidents and congestions in real-time using the speed of
the vehicles that are travelling the road segment and a few
threshold values.
III. MATERIAL AND METHODS
A. Vehicular Ad hoc Networks
Vehicular Ad hoc Networks (VANETs) are a special
form of Ad-hoc Networks and promising technology to
advance roadway safety and efficiency by supporting
drivers and roadway administrations with proper
information about road and traffic condition. Applications
to assist drivers and for traffic safety will be possible with
implementation of VANETs [21]. VANET related
applications can be grouped as transport efficiency, safety
and infotainment applications. Safety applications aimed to
decrease accident risk. Cooperative collision warning,
traffic violation warning, lane change, and pre-accident
sensing are example applications for traffic safety [22].
Rezaei et al. [23] presented Cooperative Active Safety
Systems (CASS) which enables vehicles to follow its
neighboring vehicles to avoid possible collisions. They
explored communication scheme which assumes that a
GPS receiver, DSRC device and sensors are installed on
vehicles. Microscopic vehicle parameters, such as convey
position, heading, speed, and other parameters are
exchanged with all neighboring vehicles [23]. In our study,
we assumed that number of vehicles with VANET
communication devices is low and vehicles which have
VANET communication devices broadcast some of their
microscopic vehicle parameters and other vehicles which
are able to receive that information can use machine
learning methods to detect accidents by analyzing vehicles’
behavior in last a few seconds.
B. SUMO: Simulation of Urban Mobility
Development of SUMO has started in 2001 by the
German Aerospace Center as an open source traffic
simulation package. SUMO has become an environment
for traffic modeling with various features. It can use
different source formats to generate road network, generate
various kind of traffic demand, and route the traffic based
on different input sources. High performance simulation is
able to simulate various traffic scenarios, from a single
junction to whole city traffic. Simulator also allows
external control using remote control interface (TraCI) to
intervene the flow of simulation [24].
In this study, vehicles’ behavior in last 10 second has
been analyzed in order to detect accidents which are
happening at that moment by employing classification
methods. Due to the difficulty of collecting vehicle velocity
and position information from real world, Simulation of
42
Urban Mobility (SUMO) [24] has been used to simulate
traffic and to generate velocity and position information.
Velocity and position values of the vehicles have been
collected from probe vehicles and each vehicle’s
information is used as input for machine learning
algorithms.
C. Machine Learning Methods
Machine learning methods attempt to find the class of
new sample using the way that was learned from classified
examples. In literature, supervised learning term is also
used for classification, since classification algorithm is
provided with training sample and its corresponding
outcome. Each outcome is the class of that sample [25]. In
this study, three widely used classification methods:
Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Networks and
Random Forests were applied on microscopic traffic data.
i)Artificial Neural Networks
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) aim to duplicate the
behavior of a real neural network which consists of large
number of interconnected neurons. An ANN is collection
of nodes which transforms weighted sum of inputs to
output value “0” or “1”. Usually, a sigmoidal transfer
function in each node converts the weighted sum to the
output. Neural networks have input nodes as many as the
number of inputs and have output nodes where number of
outputs is determined by the number of classes. If two
classes exist, one output node is needed. ANN with
multiple layers are called as a multi-layer perceptron. Input
nodes are fully interconnected to hidden layer nodes and
hidden layer nodes are linked to a single output node.
Beside these connections, one of input nodes is directly
linked to output node. Each connection between nodes has
a weight in ANN [26].
ii) Support Vector Machine
Support vector machines (SVMs) are recently
developed and attracting attention from researches because
of their notable accuracy and ability to manage with large
and high dimensional data sets [26]. The SVM algorithm
has been employed in various areas, such as illumination
analysis, haptic data prediction, and financial forecasting.
There are also many implementations of SVM in ITS, such
as incident detection, traffic speed and flow predictions,
travel time, traffic flow and speed predictions, eye
movement detection [14].
In complex data sets, linear separation is not possible.
Data which cannot be linearly separated can be mapped
onto new dimension and then can be separated linearly.
Kernel functions are used to find the best boundary location
by building linear boundaries on mapped samples. A
complex curve is needed to separate two classes in original
sample space, but after mapping original sample values
onto a more appropriate feature space, two classes can be
separated by a linear decision boundary. Therefore,
classification problem becomes finding suitable
transformation problem [26].
iii) Random Forest
Random forest (RF) is a data mining tool to solve
classification and regression related problems. Growing an
ensemble of trees and deciding the class type by voting
have improved classification accuracy significantly.
Random vectors are constructed to grow these ensembles.
Each tree is generated from one of random vectors. RF
consists of classification and regression trees.
Classification problems are solved by analyzing output of
trees. Majority of class votes determines the RF prediction.
The generalization error merges to a limiting value, while
adding more trees to RF since over-fitting does not occur
in large RFs [27].
Low bias and correlation are crucial to achieve higher
accuracy. In order to achieve low bias, trees are grown
without pruning, and randomization of variables at each
node is applied to achieve low correlation.
General growing and voting process of RF is as follow:
• A bootstrap sample is chosen from the training set to
grow each tree of RF. About two-third of samples are
used to grow each tree and remaining one-third of
samples are used to calculate out-of-bag (OOB) error.
• During tree growing process, randomly n variables are
selected out of N variables.
• It is recommended to choose n<<N. log2(N)+1 or √N
can be chosen as a starting value and various values
can be tried until obtaining the minimum OBB error.
Only one variable out of n selected variables is used at
each node to make the best split.
After growing a tree, OOB data set is used for that tree
to test its performance. While more trees are grown, RF
calculates unbiased error estimate using OOB data set.
OOB data set is also used to calculate significance of
variables in RF classification [28].
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The realization of concept of vehicle to vehicle (V2V)
communication will enable vehicles to exchange
information with each other. V2V presents a possibility to
improve efficiency of the road usage, traffic safety and
comfort. V2V systems assume that vehicles installed with
mobile communication interfaces will enable vehicle to
exchange updates on frequently changing data, such as
speed, acceleration/deceleration, position to other vehicles,
and maneuver data.
Microscopic variables of vehicle can be used for
evaluation of traffic condition as they are used to measure
traffic flow in roadway. In this study, equipped vehicles
can collect microscopic variables from other equipped
vehicles and analysis their behaviors to detect accidents. It
is assumed that V2V communication devices are
sufficiently deployed.
In the test traffic network of this study, it is assumed
that each equipped vehicle is able to broadcast its
microscopic data and every equipped vehicle is able to
receive and decode it. Every equipped vehicle can collect
information from equipped vehicles in its neighborhood.
Range of this neighborhood depends on mounted
equipment. In case of implementing DSRC transmitters,
43
this range can extend up to 1000 m. Moreover, every
vehicle is assumed to be able to collect microscopic traffic
data such as location information and traveling speed.
Locations of vehicles can be calculated from each vehicle’s
distance to each other using signal processing techniques.
In this study, 6000 m one-way road segment with three
lanes is created in traffic simulator SUMO. 50 vehicles
including buses, sedan cars, and vans per minute were
entered to road highway segment from beginning of the
road and they left the simulation from the end of the road.
In order to simulate different types of drivers and vehicles,
5 different types of vehicle have been created and every
vehicle has been randomly assigned to one of these 5 types.
Every minute, 40 sedan cars, 5 buses and 5 vans entered to
the road segment from the beginning. Speed limit for test
road segment was 80 km/h. Maximum speed limit for
buses, vans and some of sedan cars were assign as 80km/h.
For other sedan cars, maximum speed limit was assign as
70 km/h and 60km/h to create diversity in the traffic.
SUMO is collision free traffic simulator. In order to
simulate an accident, cars are scheduled to make a forced
stop in predetermined locations where speed limit in that
small road segment where accident is assumed to happen
was assigned as 0 (zero) km/h. Since vehicles passing by
accident area would decrease their speed, speed limit on
neighboring lanes in accident area was assigned as 10 km/h
for closest lane and 20 km/h for further lane.
Stops can also be recognized as important incident in
the traffic. Passengers who are exiting the stopped vehicle
or stopped vehicle by itself can cause an inconvenience to
other drivers. Detecting such incident and warming coming
vehicles will prevent possible incidents [29].
Simulation program has been run 35 times to
implement accidents in different accident area and on
different lanes. Since accidents can block more than one
lane, 7 different road blocking combinations for 3-lane
road have been studied for each accident area.
A. Simulation
Every simulation took approximately 1300 seconds.
First 600 seconds were used to fill up the 6000 m. road
segment with vehicles and have normal traffic flow on the
road. At every 600th second of simulations, accidents
occurred in predefined accident areas and lanes. Accidents
occupied the predefined road segment for 120 seconds, and
then traffic turned back to normal. Every second of
simulation, vehicle ID, speed and location information of
each vehicle was taken from SUMO traffic simulator and
recorded as output of simulator.
In order to analyze the behavior of vehicle during
normal and accident situations, speed history of each
vehicle was used. Beside current values, speed values for
each second in last 10 seconds were included in analysis.
Every simulation produced over 110000 samples where
each sample is microscopic values of each vehicle at every
second. Total samples from 35 simulations cumulated
more than 4 million samples. Due to difficulty of
processing such a huge data, 4279 samples that consist of
2608 accident case and 1671 non-accident case has been
randomly selected in a way to represent all data. These
samples were entered to supervised machine learning
algorithms as input and 10-fold cross validation was used
to compare accuracy of algorithms on traffic data.
B. Comparison of Classification Methods
Purpose of this study is to present that if vehicles are
installed with trained equipment, they can distinguish
accident situations from normal situations. It is assumed
that vehicles can regularly broadcast some of their
microscopic variables and they can classify received
information using machine learning tools to determine if
any accident is occurring. SUMO simulation application is
used to create accidents and produce microscopic
parameter values for accident and normal situations.
The proposed usage of classification methods aims to
enable vehicle to detect accidents on its neighborhood.
Effectiveness of classification techniques on microscopic
variables in accident detection are evaluated and compared
in this study.
Following assumptions have been considered through
this study:
• Only probe vehicles are equipped with V2V
communication devices.
• Probe vehicles broadcast their position and speed at
every second.
• Probe vehicles are able to calculate position of
transferring vehicle by using signal processing and
antenna techniques and its own location
• Probe vehicles can aggregate microscopic traffic values
for each vehicle for last 10 seconds.
• Probe vehicles can execute trained classification
method at every second.
Furthermore, supervised learning methods are trained
and tested using 10-fold cross validation method. In this
method, 90% of collected data is used to train the learning
methods and the rest, 10% of collected data is used to test
the learned model. In order to evaluate the performance of
each classifier, the number of true positives (TP), false
positives (FP), true negatives (TN), and false negatives
(FN) are used and accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity
value of each algorithm is used to compare algorithms with
each other. TP, TN, FP, and FN values are obtained, and
accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values are calculated.
Accuracy = (TP+TN)/(TP+TN+FP+FN) (1)
Sensitivity = TP/(TP+FN) (2)
Specificity = TP/(TN+FP) (3)
Table shows the comparison between SVM, ANN and
RF classification algorithms. SVM and ANN is well
known classification algorithms with their high accuracy
rate specially in ITS. The aim of this study was to
investigate performance of RF algorithm on traffic data and
compare it with SVM and ANN. RF has shown slightly
44
better performance than SVM and ANN with 92%
accuracy and 94% sensitivity.
TABLE 1. COMPARISON OF SUPERVISED LEARNING ALGORITHMS
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity
Algorithm
(%) (%) (%)
SVM 89 88 90
ANN 90 86 93
RF 92 94 88
C. Discussion
This study has shown that accidents can be detected
using machine learning methods. Probe vehicles can use
proposed system during their travel and check constantly if
any accident happened and if there is any accident, it can
change its route or speed can be decreased to prevent any
secondary accident. Evaluations have shown that RF is able
to detect accidents with 92% accuracy while ANN is able
to detect with 90% accuracy and SVM with 89% accuracy.
In addition to accuracy ratio, sensitivity ratio of RF also
supports the idea of using RF over ANN and SVM.
Sensitivity can be interpreted as detection rate of accidents
when accident actually happened where specificity can be
interpreted as categorizing normal traffic flow as normal
situation. RF has higher sensitivity with 94% ratio while
ANN has 86% and SVM has 88%, but lower specificity
than ANN and SVM. RF performs 88% specificity while
ANN with 93% and SVM with 90%. Sensitivity and
specificity ratios show that RF can detect accidents better
than others, but it is not as good as others at detecting
normal traffic flows. RF will warn about accident more
often than others when there is no accident. Since detecting
normal situation as accident is always more preferable than
detecting accident as normal situation, it can be concluded
that RF shows better performance than ANN and SVM and
it can be used for accident detection in proposed system.
Based on the findings of the presented work, the
followings can be emphasized:
• Vehicle’s microscopic traffic values can be used to gain
some information about traffic.
• Accident detection methods can be developed without
using Global Positioning System (GPS) values, since
GPS values may not point the exact location.
• Machine learning algorithms can be used to analyze
behavior of vehicles to detect unusual situations on the
traffic.
• RF shows better performance at detection accidents
than ANN and SVM.
• Without wide range of V2V equipment deployment,
some safety applications like accident detection can be
developed.
 V. CONCLUSION
This paper has demonstrated a real-time traffic accident
detection method, that combined vehicle to vehicle
communication techniques with machine learning
methods. The proposed method was cautiously evaluated
in a traffic simulation environment, SUMO. The evaluation
of the V2V data communication model affirm that the
Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks and Support
Vector Machine algorithms successfully identified
accidents using location and speed information. Moreover,
the proposed method can provide estimated geographical
location of the possible accident, which could be useful for
highway administration to response immediately or
prevent secondary accident.
Furthermore, it is shown that accidents or other
incidents can be regarded as outliers in traffic data and
machine learning algorithms can be employed to detect
those outliers. Upon detection of traffic incident, other
probe vehicles can be warned about the incident and this
will help drivers take some action to prevent further
incidents and redirect their route. Simulations have
indicated that Random Forest algorithm has shown slightly
better performance than Artificial Neural Networks and
Support Vector Machines due to its simplicity and
randomization process.
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