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A. margins of error
B. pollster’s political tilt
C. “loaded” questions
D. sample representativeness
So, are ONLINE poll results to be trusted? Do potential technical pitfalls invalidate
most online polling?
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2. QUESTION: Will the Internet take over traditional media? That the Internet, a new
information highway combining visual, audio and print, has brought about the
e-volution, and has become the 5th estate in any modern society -- True?
Yes:
Conventional media are increasingly quoting what “extra” information they can find
online, from facebook and blogs to forums and chatrooms. An increasing number of
social campaigns are being organized via the cyberspace.
And political electioneering can effectively use the new media as a tool. US
President Obama’s 2008 election campaign was called “the first YouTube election” in
American history.
The “Jasmine Revolution”, or Arab Spring in 2011-12, resulting in uprisings in the
Arab World including North Africa and successfully toppling tyrant regimes, have also
been called “Facebook revolution” and “Twitter Revolution”. A (self-immolation)
photo on facebook sparked it off, and Tweets were widely used to rally supporters for
protest events' where and when.
No:
The “new media”, or citizens’ journalism, could be seen as good sources for comments
and trends, but not for factual information. This is because the cyberspace lacks the
editorial checks and screening conducted in conventional newsrooms. And online
pranks and hoaxes are plentiful.
Some would argue it’s the people, not phones nor electronic gadgets, that start a
revolution. And banning online social media has proved easy for totalitarian
governments.
But will the Internet at least become people’s major source of sociopolitical
information? That seems to be already happening.
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3. BACKGROUND:
When TV first became commonplace around the middle of the last century, there was
the talk that the advent of TV would mark the end of radio and newspapers. That didn't
happen.
Although TV did become the most common and most popular source of
information -- 9/11 in particular, and the saying that June 4, 1989 “had two battlefields,
one on Tiananmen Square and the other on the CNN” -- people around the world still
read newspapers and listen to the radio, at least for now.
- The FINANCIAL factor. The gap between the have's and have-not's remains wide in
many societies (including the United States), and the gap naturally is more prominent in
developing and under-developed countries. To have access to a computer or an iPhone
remains somewhat a luxury to many.
- The TECHNICAL factor. To gain information from the Internet, one needs some
basic computer knowledge. While you can just switch on a light without understanding
electricity, to use a computer essentially requires skills. Without widespread technical
know-how, the Internet would remain a fringe medium as far as a part, albeit dwindling,
of the global population is concerned.
- The CREDIBILITY factor. This is perhaps the most important. Imagine if one had
only known about the 9/11 terrorist attack via the net, it would have been difficult to
believe all that happened was true.
The Internet is without borders, and it is difficult to discipline, let alone control.
There would always be the suspicion that the information you have obtained on the
screen might be a hacker's prank.
This credibility problem exists in the other media as well. One hypothetical
example would be, there is this EXCLUSIVE newspaper headline "CY Leung resigns"
-- If it's in the Beijing-controlled Wen Wei Po, one would tend to believe it, but if it's in
any other commercial daily, one would think twice.
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4. THE HK SCENE:
Local news websites such as Stand News (立場新聞), 852 Post (852 郵報) and
The SAR government has been seen trying to curb online freedom by making
“spoofing” a criminal offence under amended copyright laws. The authorities have
subsequently acceded to exempting contents of “satire, caricature, parody and pastiche”,
as well as current affairs comments. The issue remains a controversy awaiting
legislative approval.
The apparent official anxiety to set up a separate IT bureau in HK has also met with
suspicions and will keep facing political hurdles.
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mother of Shi Tao (師濤), a mainland journalist from Hunan who received a lengthy
jail sentence on conviction of “leaking state secrets” -- after Yahoo revealed to the
Chinese authorities his IP (Internet Protocol), ie, his computer identity.
Beijing has been putting on hold, apparently indefinitely, its plan to have the
“green dam” (綠壩) filter software compulsorily installed in the whole of the country,
with the plan’s announced aim of protecting children from “harmful” Internet contents.
The indefinite postponement is mostly seen as a decision made out of fear of bad
international publicity.
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Internationally, there’s been the suggestion that an “Interpol for the internet” be set
up to counter possible terrorist attacks that could be staged online -- eg. hacking
banking accounts and energy security systems -- causing chaos to the entire modern
world. But this, for obvious reasons, is easier said than done.
Ends