PLANIFICACIÓN MINERA

Departamento de Ingeniería de Minería

Angelina Anani, PhD

RISK ANALYSIS
Outline
Risk Analysis
▫ Event tree analysis
▫ Fault tree analysis
▫ Risk matrix analysis
▫ Indicator based approach etc
Learning outcome (Objective)
Students should be:
• Understand the difference between qualitative and quantitative
methods
• Be familiar with risk analysis methods such as FTA & ETA
• Understand the difference between deterministic and stochastic
methods
Risk Analysis
• Use of available information to determine how often specified
events may occur and the magnitude of their consequences
• Can be performed:
▫ Qualitatively – by instinct or gut feel (“that seems too risky”)
▫ Quantitatively – assign numeric values to risks
Risk Analysis
Qualitative assessment
Defines consequence, probability and level of risk by significance levels such as
“high”, “medium” and “low”, may combine consequence and probability.

Semi-quantitative
Methods use numerical rating scales for consequence and probability and combine
them to produce a level of risk using a formula. Formulae used can vary.

Quantitative analysis
Estimates practical values for consequences and their probabilities, and produces
values of the level of risk in specific units defined when developing the context. Full
quantitative analysis may not always be possible or desirable.
Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
 1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
• A number of hazard may occur in chains: one hazard causes the next
• Most problematic types to analyze
• Best approach for hazard chains is to use so-called event-trees
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
• Event trees begin with an initiating event & work towards the
final result (inductive approach).
• This method provides information on how a failure can occur &
the probability of occurrence.
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
Steps
1. Identify an initiating event of interest (usually falls in one of 4 categories).
2. Identify the safety functions (barriers) designed to deal with the initiating
event.
3. Describe the resulting accident event sequences
4. Construct the event tree.
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
Steps
5. Determine the frequency of the accidental event and the (conditional)
probabilities of the branches in the event tree
6. Calculate the probabilities/frequencies for the identified consequences
(outcomes)
7. Compile and present the results from the analysis
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
• All the analyzed events are linked by nodes
• All possible states of the system are
considered at each node
• Each state (branch of the event tree) is
characterized by a defined value of
probability of occurrence
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)

1. Accidental event – fire

2. Barriers - fire detection, fire extinguishing, warning alarm,
Procedures and operator actions etc
3. Event sequence

Possible to have three or more alternatives other than just true or false
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
4. Construct the event tree…..
1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
5. Frequency & probabilities
• λ - frequency of the accidental (initiating) event
• Pr(Bi ) - denote the probability of event B(i).
• Probability of “Outcome 1” is:

Pr(Outcome 1 |Accidental event) = Pr(B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3 ∩ B4) = Pr(B1) · Pr(B2 | B1) · Pr(B3 |

B1 ∩ B2) · Pr(B4 | B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3)

• The frequency of “Outcome 1” is

λ · Pr(B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3 ∩ B4)
boolean operations
1. ETA EXAMPLE
Results from the event tree
analysis may be used to:

• Judge the acceptability of

the system
• Identify improvement
opportunities
• Make recommendations
for improvements
• Justify allocation of
resources for
improvements

¿Qué conclusión podemos sacar de los resultados?

• Seleccione un evento iniciador (en minería) basado en las categorías

• Determinar los resultados / efectos posibles como resultado de este evento

1. Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
Advantages Disadvantages
1. Accounts for timing of events 1. Limited to one initiating event
2. Models domino effects that are 2. Requires special treatment to account for
cumbersome to model in fault trees system dependencies
analysis 3. Quality of the evaluation depends on good
3. Events can be quantified in terms of documentations
consequences (success and failure) 4. Partial success or failure not
4. Initiating event, line of assurance, branch distinguishable
point, and accident sequence can be 5. Requires a skilled and experienced analyst
graphically traced
Fault tree analysis
2. Fault tree analysis
• Fault trees are deductive method for identifying ways in which hazards can
lead to accident
• The FTA is a top-down analysis versus the bottom-up approach for the
event-tree analysis.
• Starts with a well defined accident, or top event, and works backwards
towards the various scenarios that can cause the accident
2. Fault tree analysis
Steps
1. Problem formulation - Identify the objective , define the top event of the FT,
scope, resolution of the FTA & ground rules for the FTA.
2. Construct the FT
3. Evaluate the FT
4. Interpret and present the results

Block diagram
2. FTA Illustration
Here F(x1) , F(x2) , F(x3), F(x4)
are events fail
• F (A) = SUB – SYSTEM (A) FAILS
• F(B) = SUB – SYSTEM (B) FAILS

THEN
• F(A) = F(X1) AND F(X2)
• F(B) = F(X3) AND F(X4)

FINALLY THE FAILURE OF THE

SYSTEM F(S) = F(A) OR F(B)
2. Remember your probability rules??
• When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive (e.g. dice)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

When two events, A and B, are non-mutually exclusive (students grades)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

2. FTA Illustration
The probability of failure of sub – system (A)
is indicated as shown in below,
P(A) = P (X 1 and X 2)
P(A) = P( X1) * P( X 2)
Similarly for sub – system (B)
P(B) = P( X 3 and X 4)
P(B) = P( X 3) * P( X 4)
 2. FTA Illustration
Failure occurs when SUB – SYSTEM (A) or (B)
FAIL
F (S) = P(A) or P(B) Then F(S) = P(A) + P(B) – (
P(A) * P(B) )

If the reliability of the elements are given by

R1,R2,R3,R4
THEN P( Xi ) = 1 – Ri
Reliability of system R(S) = 1 - F(S)
Symbols and Gates
Events Symbol
Logic Gates Symbol
Fault Tree Logic Symbols
Example
The victim either fell or jumped from the defective haul truck he was operating as it struck a
berm, left the roadway, and ran over him with the rear tandem wheels

• Top event – fatal accident

• Fatal accident may have occurred because the driver fails to control the truck
• The fatal accident (top event) will occur with the driver outside the truck with the
condition that the driver failed to wear his seat belt
• Failure to control the Truck may be as a result of the truck was defective when
operated OR newly employed miner training not received before being assigned to
work duties
Example
• The truck may have been defective as a result of poor maintenance AND
mechanical problems AND failure of the driver to perform proper pre-
operational checks
• Mechanical problems may have occurred if no seat belt was provided AND
no properly operating door latches for either side of the truck AND no
audible warning device for low air pressure AND air pressure gauge needles
were plumbed backwards AND air pressure gauge reading 15 -20 psi higher
than actual air pressure AND no tachometer or speedometer
2. FTA – Control
For a gold mine in South Africa, the power is obtained from the main city
supply through a transformer connected in series. To ensure an uninterrupted
supply, an auxiliary generator is also used with a suitable switch- over. The
probability of failure of the city supply is 0.01 and the transformer reliability is
0.996. The auxiliary power generator has a reliability factor of 0.99. Draw the
block diagram for the system. Construct the fault tree and, based on this,
calculate the reliability of the system.
Advantages Disadvantages

1. It directs the analyst to flush out 1. Requires a skilled analyst

failures deductively; 2. Focuses only on one particular

2. understanding of the mechanism of type of problem in a system, and

likely failure; multiple fault trees are required

3. It provides a graphical assistance for to address the multiple modes of

system management to visualize the failure

hazard 3. Require considerable amount of

4. Begins with top event time to complete.

Advantages Disadvantages
5. Providing a line of approach for 4. Graphical model can get complex
system reliability analysis (qualitative, in multiple failures
quantitative);
6. Allowing the analyst to give attention
to one particular system failure at a
time;
7. Providing the analyst with genuine
understandings into system behavior.
Solution - control
 The bowtie method

El Fault tree describe una serie de eventos que pueden causar un peligro y el Event tree muestra cómo se
mitiga si ocurre
Hazard & Top event
Threats
Consequences
Control and Recovery Barriers
Escalation factors & Escalation factor barriers
Example

Top event - derramar la bebida caliente

Example
3. Risk matrix approach (RMA)
• Records the level of risk which is determined by the relationship between the
likelihood of an incident occurring from the hazard, and the consequence
caused by the hazard
• Recorded as either a numerical or alphabetical code.
• The relationship between likelihood and consequence determines how
Consequences

dangerous the hazard is. Likelihood

Severe
(1)
Major
(2)
Medium
(3)
Minor
(4)
Negligible
(5)

Almost certain
E H H M M
(A)

Likely
H H M M L
(B)

Possible
H M M L L
(C)

Unlikely
M M L L T
(D)

Rare
M L L T T
(E)
3. Risk matrix approach (RMA)
a.k.a consequences-frequency matrices (CFM)
For risks
▫ Not fully quantifiable
▫ Have a very large degree of uncertainty
▫ Difficult to define hazard scenarios, and map
▫ Difficult to characterize the elements-at-risk, or
▫ Difficult to define the vulnerability using vulnerability curves
3. Risk matrix approach (RMA)
• Classify risks based on expert knowledge with limited quantitative data
• Depends on the quality of the group of experts
3. RMA Example - CASE STUDY OF A COAL MINE
Mining is done by an opencast method. The mine has 8 coal horizons out of
which 4 horizons are now workable. Coal production is 12000 TPD and OB
removed is 25000m3 per day. The OMS of mine is 95 and striping ratio of mine
is 1: 2.60. There are 3 coal seams in the mines. The overburden removal is being
done with shovel-truck combination, with drilling and blasting. Coal
production is done by pay loaders and tippers, with drilling and blasting. 35
trucks are assigned for overburden removal and 20 trucks for production.
Drilling is being carried out by 160mm dia. drill machine contractually.
 3. RMA Example - CASE STUDY OF A COAL MINE
Haul road is 300m in length and 20m in width having a slope of 1 in 16. Tipping
truck road is 30m wide and its length is 2.5kms having flat slope and ramps of 1
in 12. In dump yard area height is kept at 30m, sufficient space is provided
avoid overcrowdings, for slope natural angle should not be more than 37°. For
the use of explosives a magazine with license, having a capacity of explosives
14000kg, fuse 10000kg and detonators 20000. One explosive van and 5 blasting
shelters are present and blasting density per million tonnes is 279.32
3. Risk Analysis and Risk Management

Steps for risk assessment and risk management

• Hazards identification

• Ranking of hazards as per their probability and consequence

• Management of hazards as per their ranking

Hazards identification
Major risks that were identified were related to
• Blasting in mines
• Entry of workers
• Dust emission
• Loading in coal faces & OB
• Pay loaders operation at stock yard
• Use of heavy earth moving machineries (HEMM)
• Dumping area of coal and OB
• Inundation
What risks did you identify?
¿Qué riesgos identificaste?
Hazards identification
Few major risks as per the ranking are
• Use of PPE was not proper
• Fly rock while blasting
• Absence of footpath for the movement of trucks and tippers
• Accident due to movement of pay loaders
• Overcrowding of vehicles
• Poor supervision at loading faces of coal and OB
• Conflict with the code of work practice. (strikes)
• Sudden inrush of river water
Risk Rating - Dust, Chemicals & Hazardous
Substances
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk Rating
Level Consequence
1. Dusts that can effect operations L2 C3
2. Dusts that can effect health such as silica L4 C3

3. Fines or build-up of combustible particles L4 C3

4. Chemical such as petrol, diesel, oils, L4 C3

degreasers, solvents.
5. Gases such as H2S, CO, CO2 NOX L3 C5
Risk Rating - Electrical Energies
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk Rating
Level Consequence
1. Electricity(High voltage installation) L4 C3
2. Electrical energy from apparatus such as cables, L3 C4
transformers, switch gear, connections
3. Electrical Equipment inspection, testing and tagging to L4 C4
standards
Risk Rating - Explosives

HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk

Level Consequence Rating
1. Explosives – general (Fly rock occurrences, L2 C1
noise and vibrations, neighbor)
2. Handling Explosives L4 C1

3. Explosives Storage -including detonators L5 C1

 Risk Rating - Gravitational Energies
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk
Level Consequence Rating
1. Mine road design and construction L3 C1
2. Fall and dislodgement of earth and rock L4 C1
3. Instability of the excavation and adjoining L4 C1
structure
4. Floor L3 C3
5. High wall / pit wall / stockpiles / berms L3 C3
6. Objects / structures falling on people L4 C3
7. Fall of things such as components, tools, L5 C3
structures
8. Air blasts / wind L4 C5
 Risk Rating - Mechanical Energies
Equipment such as earth moving machinery (trucks, loaders, dozers, etc.), rail, winders, mining
equipment such as drills, shovels, excavator, other
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk
Level Consequence Rating
1. Road traffic in and out issues L2 C3
2. Inappropriate exposure to moving machinery L4 C2
3. Mechanical failure (including critical systems) L3 C3
4. Loss of control of a vehicle or other machinery at the L4 C3
mine
5. Interaction between mobile plant and pedestrians L4 C3
6. Unintentional fire or explosion L4 C3
7. Contact of mobile plant with overhead structures L5 C3
 Risk Rating - Pressure (Fluids/Gases)
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk
Level Consequence Rating
1. Inrush into/flood intrusion of mine (directly or L2 C2
indirectly)
2. Unusual rain event L3 C3
3. Flow failure of pumping system e.g. Outlet blockage L3 C4
4. Road drainage L4 C5
 Risk Rating - Work Environment
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk
Level Consequence Rating
1. Noise L4 C2
2. Wildlife such as snakes, spiders, insects L3 C3
3. Manual handling hazards L4 C3
4. Biological, such as exposure to work related diseases L4 C3
5. Slip/trip hazards L4 C4
6. Vibration L4 C4
7. Building maintenance / cleaning L3 C5
8. Effects of Ventilation L5 C4
9. Condition of Buildings / Structures L4 C5
10. Sufficient Hygiene Facilities L4 C5
 Risk Rating - Others
HAZARD TYPE Likelihood Maximum Risk
Level Consequence Rating
1. Use of PPE L2 C1
2. Spontaneous Heating L2 C4
3. Example - Risk Treatment
• Fly rock can be avoided by maintaining proper burden and spacing and proper
arrangement of nonel.
• Hazards due to absence of footpath can be avoided by implementation of traffic rules
and display of traffic signal boards
• Accident during movement of pay loader can be avoided by proper supervision and
avoid loading and unloading work simultaneously at stock yard.
• Overcrowding can be avoided by making wide roads and one way traffic system.
• Sudden inrush can be avoided by preparation of embankment and its strengthening,
proper pumping and continuous checking of vulnerable points.
OTHER METHODS….
• Failure mode effects analysis (FMEA)
• Indicator-based approach (IBA)
• Hazard and operability studies (HAZOP)
Failure mode effects analysis (FMEA)

• Step-by-step approach for identifying all possible failures

• “Failure modes” means the ways in which something might fail.

• “Effects analysis” refers to studying the consequences of those failures.

• The purpose of the FMEA is to take actions to eliminate or reduce failures,

starting with the highest-priority ones

Failure mode effects analysis (FMEA)
Failures are prioritized according
• How serious their consequences are,
• How frequently they occur
• How easily they can be detected
FMEA Procedure
1. Assemble a cross-functional team of people with diverse knowledge
2. identify the scope of the FMEA. Is it for concept, system, design, process or
service? What are the boundaries? Etc.
3. Fill in the identifying information at the top of your FMEA form.

4. Determine how serious (S) each effect is. rated on a scale from 1
to 10
FMEA Procedure
5. For each failure mode, determine all the potential root causes. List all
possible causes for each failure mode
6. For each cause, determine the occurrence rating, or O (between 0 and 1).
7. For each cause, identify current process controls
8. For each control, determine the detection rating, or D. (between 0 and 1).
9. Is this failure mode associated with a critical characteristic (compliance
with government regulations)?
FMEA Procedure
10. Calculate the risk priority number, or RPN, which equals S × O × D. Also
calculate Criticality by multiplying severity by occurrence, S × O
11. Identify recommended actions.
12. As actions are completed, note results and the date on the FMEA form.
Also, note new S, O or D ratings and new RPNs.
4. Indicator-based approach (IBA)
• Used where (semi)-quantitative methods for risk mapping are not appropriate.
• Lack of data to quantify the components, such as hazard frequency, intensity, and
physical vulnerability
• Desire to take into account a number of different components of vulnerability
such as social vulnerability,

• Based on the development of so-called risk indices

• Consist of quantitative data
• Vulnerability, hazard and risk results are scaled between 0 and 1
Quantitative risk assessment (QRA)

• Used to project threat impacts

• Determines the likelihood of threats occurring and evaluates the
magnitude and cost (cents/$) of the occurrence
• define, measure, predict, and provide a confidence level of
likelihood and occurrence of threat impacts
Method Advantages Disadvantages
Quantitative risk Provides quantitative risk information Very data demanding. Difficult to quantify
assessment (QRA) that can be used in Cost-benefit analysis temporal probability, hazard intensity and
of risk reduction measures. vulnerability.
Event-tree analysis Allow modelling of a sequence of events, The probabilities for the different nodes
and works well for domino effects are difficult to assess, and spatial
implementation is very difficult due to
lack of data.
Risk matrix approach Allows to express risk using classes The method doesn’t give quantitative
instead of exact values, and is a good values that can be used in cost-benefit
basis for discussing risk reduction analysis of risk reduction measures. The
measures. assessment of impacts and frequencies is
difficult, and one area might have
different combinations of impacts and
frequencies.
Indicator-based Only method that allows to carry out a The resulting risk is relative and doesn’t
approach holistic risk assessment, including social, provide information on actual expected
economic and environmental losses.
vulnerability and capacity.
Summary
• Risk analysis - use of available information to determine how often specified events may
occur and the magnitude of their consequences
• Qualitatively – by instinct or gut feel (“that seems too risky”)
• Quantitatively – assign numeric values to risks
• Event tree is an inductive analytical diagram in which an event is analyzed using Boolean
logic to examine a chronological series of subsequent events or consequences.
• FTA is a systematic safety analysis tool that proceeds deductively from the occurrence of an
undesired event to the identification of the root causes of that event
• Bowtie method is a risk evaluation method that can be used to analyse and demonstrate
causal relationships in high-risk scenarios