For Bet Performer,

Predicted Price in May 2008 - With original data

Age =
DWT=
Index (in May 2008)=
Predicted Price (Million)=

20K DWT smaller

Age =
DWT=
Index (in May 2008)=
Predicted Price (Million)=

Predicted Price in May 2006 -

Age =
DWT
Index(2 yrs before) =
Predicted Price (Million)=

In 2006 Bet Performer was sold in $70 million, which is quite c

Regression Analysis Output

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.959391052
R Square 0.920431191
Adjusted R Square 0.915006045
Standard Error 9.881762287
Observations 48

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 3 49701.55219
Residual 44 4296.565939
Total 47 53998.11813

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept 44.22150997 16.3836613
Dead-Weight Tons '(000) 0.242171385 0.091618122
Trailing 1-Year Average
Monthly Baltic Dry
Capesize Index 0.007207056 0.000598091
Age at Sale (Years) -4.543796819 0.261475925
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sale Price ($US millions) Residuals

1 82.5804952 -9.580495205
2 41.38669295 3.613307046
3 59.77983448 2.220165524
4 61.45081703 -1.450817033
5 56.40748552 4.892514475
6 84.17507609 -1.175076089
7 38.34060847 6.659391534
8 109.5608645 -9.56086454
9 62.98469084 2.015309158
10 72.0238502 -2.023850203
11 27.23071954 5.769280465
12 65.76063655 -2.760636551
13 34.68673967 8.313260326
14 99.6094704 -4.609470403
15 99.6094704 -4.609470403
16 63.27428777 0.225712228
17 67.57591321 -0.575913206
18 62.88681356 -0.886813556
19 19.57092834 11.42907166
20 81.18960622 4.810393782
21 85.27327741 -34.77327741
22 80.09983499 -15.89983499
23 69.00103252 -2.001032523
24 26.49333809 1.506661906
25 25.37465482 4.625345181
26 109.0367424 -4.036742441
27 13.80702659 8.192973412
28 120.2279928 12.77200716
29 89.87102003 0.128979971
30 48.41985447 -1.419854475
31 43.59447721 1.405522787
32 43.98195143 13.01804857
33 105.316451 0.683549033
34 128.3986921 23.60130786
35 86.45415859 10.54584141
36 41.30679607 -3.306796068
37 81.59553897 5.904461025
38 73.17071448 4.82928552
39 46.85571015 -11.85571015
40 87.49183649 -3.791836494
41 144.0183956 10.9816044
42 64.19502932 -6.195029322
43 88.71164262 -5.711642621
44 39.9288508 -14.9288508
45 125.5767438 9.42325622
46 150.9146036 7.085396411
47 105.1144912 -17.91449117
48 87.58414142 -5.584141418
 5 years younger
11 Age = 6
172 DWT= 172
12,479 Index (in May 2008)= 12,479
125.832478 Predicted Price (Million)= 148.5514621

Index 30% lower

11 Age = 11
152 DWT= 172
12,479 Index (in May 2008)= 8,736
120.9890503 Predicted Price (Million)= 98.85070155

9
172
4000 (taking approximate Index value)
73.80904103

et Performer was sold in $70 million, which is quite close to the predicted price

MS F Significance F
16567.18406 169.6601679 3.38931E-24
97.64922589

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

2.699122569 0.009825748 11.2024107 77.24060925 11.2024107
2.643269471 0.011333276 0.057527195 0.426815575 0.057527195

12.05009872 1.56983E-15 0.006001683 0.008412429 0.006001683

-17.37749591 2.52829E-21 -5.070766912 -4.016826725 -5.070766912
All P-values are less than 10%, implying that none of the variables is redundent
 Trailing 1-Year Average
Dead-Weight Tons Monthly Baltic Dry Age at Sale Sale Price ($US
'(000) Capesize Index (Years) millions)
170.2 4,647 8 $73.0
150.2 4,647 16 $45.0
151.1 4,647 12 $62.0
158.0 4,647 12 $60.0
174.7 4,647 14 $61.3
169.9 4,878 8 $83.0
149.5 4,878 17 $45.0
170.0 5,245 3 $100.0
165.3 5,245 13 $65.0
165.1 5,245 11 $70.0
149.0 5,245 20 $33.0
158.0 5,245 12 $63.0
123.5 5,245 17 $43.0
170.1 5,752 6 $95.0
170.1 5,752 6 $95.0
151.4 5,752 13 $63.5
150.4 5,752 12 $67.0
149.8 5,752 13 $62.0
139.8 5,752 22 $31.0
174.5 6,201 11 $86.0
172.6 6,201 10 $50.5
170.0 6,201 11 $64.2
149.3 6,618 13 $67.0
161.4 6,618 23 $28.0
146.0 6,980 23 $30.0
172.5 6,980 6 $105.0
140.8 7,441 26 $22.0
164.2 8,181 5 $133.0
149.2 8,886 12 $90.0
146.9 8,886 21 $47.0
164.5 8,886 23 $45.0
166.1 8,886 23 $57.0
171.1 9,663 11 $106.0
172.6 9,663 6 $152.0
149.5 9,663 14 $97.0
150.7 9,663 24 $38.0
148.2 9,663 15 $87.5
188.3 10,299 20 $78.0
98.4 10,299 21 $35.0
184.4 10,526 17 $83.7
173.9 10,526 4 $155.0
135.0 10,844 20 $58.0
207.1 11,193 19 $83.0
137.0 11,193 26 $25.0
171.7 11,193 9 $135.0
170.0 11,614 4 $158.0
161.5 12,479 15 $87.2
145.4 12,479 18 $82.0
Upper 95.0%
77.24060925
0.426815575

0.008412429
-4.016826725
Predicted Sale
Price ($US
millions) APE MAPE
82.5804952 13.12397 11.88342
41.38669295 8.029571
59.77983448 3.580912
61.45081703 2.418028
56.40748552 7.981263
84.17507609 1.415754
38.34060847 14.79865
109.5608645 9.560865
62.98469084 3.100476
72.0238502 2.891215
27.23071954 17.48267
65.76063655 4.381963
34.68673967 19.33316
99.6094704 4.852074
99.6094704 4.852074
63.27428777 0.355452
67.57591321 0.859572
62.88681356 1.430344
19.57092834 36.86797
81.18960622 5.593481
85.27327741 68.85798
80.09983499 24.7661
69.00103252 2.986616
26.49333809 5.380935
25.37465482 15.41782
109.0367424 3.844517
13.80702659 37.24079
120.2279928 9.603013
89.87102003 0.143311
48.41985447 3.020967
43.59447721 3.123384
43.98195143 22.83868
105.316451 0.644858
128.3986921 15.52718
86.45415859 10.872
41.30679607 8.702095
81.59553897 6.747955
73.17071448 6.191392
46.85571015 33.87346
87.49183649 4.530271
144.0183956 7.084906
64.19502932 10.68109
88.71164262 6.881497
39.9288508 59.7154
125.5767438 6.98019
150.9146036 4.484428
105.1144912 20.54414
87.58414142 6.809929