RETAIL BEYOND

THE CAPITAL
Davao City
Retail Snapshot
DECEMBER 2015
 Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION 2

WHY DAVAO? 3
Increasing Population 3
High Income City 4
Massive Regional Consumer Market (Davao Region) 5
Strong Tourism Market 7

DAVAO RETAIL MARKET

OVERVIEW 10
Cumulative Supply 11
Rental Rate 11
Vacancy 12
Tenant Mix 13
Increased International Brand Presence 14

OUTLOOK 15
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Executive Summary
This report provides a glimpse of the retail scene in Davao City
and also examines the city’s potential to be one of the country’s
next retail hot spots. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals,
driven mainly by a healthy and bourgeoning consumer
market coupled with supporting social infrastructure, have
supported the recent growth in retail space and influx of
international brands. Correspondingly, this report posits that
such fundamentals will continue to be the backbone of city’s
retail scene, allowing Davao City to be a viable option for retail
expansion outside Metro Manila.
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Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot
INTRODUCTION
Retail is an important element of the Philippine real do so, especially within the so-called emerging cities1,
estate industry. It responds to the strong domestic
consumer market that is fundamental to the economy.
Already more than 70% of the country’s GDP is
like Baguio, Davao, Dumaguete, Iloilo, and Bacolod.
Retail developments have likewise been expanding
aggressively outside the capital. Also, with growing
supported by consumption, and this is still expected incomes spanning provincial areas in the country, retail
to grow given the consumer income driving forces of has never been in a better position to look beyond the
the thriving BPO sector and OFW remittances. For this capital.
reason, the retail sector is foreseen to be a force to be
reckoned with in the coming years. This is manifested in
The gains from expanding outwards are immense. Not
only are these markets potentially ripe for substantial
the significant expansion of retail space and the entry of
retail and real estate growth, but from a much wider
foreign retailers recently.
perspective, they allow for a more inclusive and
Metro Manila has since been in the spotlight, given decentralized “trickle down” growth of the Philippine
the massive market that it possesses for retail. There economy.
has been a substantial increase in retail supply, major
redevelopments of existing shopping centers, and
This report aims to be one of many retail reports that
provides a glimpse of retail outside Metro Manila.
the rise of mixed-use developments catering to retail
among others. There is no denying that Metro Manila
Precisely, the focus will be on Davao City, an emerging
market that has generated a lot of interest when it
is a bourgeoning and lucrative market, but the issues
of congestion, saturation, limited space and inefficient
infrastructure, and mass transportation linger and pose
comes to safety and good governance. It is a vibrant
market with huge potential for further retail growth. This
report will provide a snapshot of the existing major retail
challenges.
centers of the city and the opportunities that
Correspondingly, real estate developers have been are presented.
looking to key markets outside the capital. IT parks and
business districts have emerged and will continue to
1 The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) has identified key markets or “Next Wave
Cities” based on their potential as business process outsourcing hubs (given talent bank, infrastructure, cost,
and business environment and risk).
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

Among the Philippines’

TOP TOURIST
DESTINATIONS
WHY DAVAO?
2,444
sq km

Davao City exhibits the trends and possesses the qualities that make for a

LARGEST CITY
robust retail market.

in the Philippines in terms of

Increasing Population
Land Area
The rapid influx of people into Davao City has transformed it into the
country’s largest urbanized area in terms of population and land area outside
the capital. Official 2010 Census figures have Davao at 1.44 million people,
Renowned to be the
Key player in flourishing trade club
and estimates for 2015 are at 1.63 million.
SAFEST CITY BRUNEI-INDONESIA-
This trend is associated with the migration of people from other regions, in the country MALAYSIA-PHILIPPINES
particularly because the city has gradually been offering the right incentives
EAST ASIAN GROWTH AREA
for relocation. Davao possesses quality schools1, quality hospitals2 and,
increasingly, quality jobs with the emergence and growth of the IT-BPO

DAVAO CITY
sector in the city - factors that people value when moving. Apart from the
social infrastructure, the city is renowned to be one of the safest in the
country and is also very accessible due to its international airport. Also,
traffic and infrastructure woes, which have dissuaded people from living
in Metro Manila, are not present in Davao due to an early implemented
stringent traffic management system3. Further, complementing the
population trend, we have seen housing subdivisions and residential options
increase in urban Davao, which encourages people to choose to conveniently
live in the city.

These positive attributes and incentives feed into the already rapid urban
growth trend of the city, as people may look to Davao City as a place to settle
1.5 MILLION
in. Optimistically, we may then see the city breaking 2 million people by 2020, 4th most populous city
which makes for a potentially substantial consumer market to tap. in the Philippines

MINDANAO’S
center of
COMMERCE
Hailed as one of the country’s TRADE
NEXT WAVE CITIES
1 Ateneo De Davao, University of Southern Philippines, Davao Doctors College, Davao Medical School Foundation (DMSF) among
others. Mapua just recently announced its expansion into Davao City. by IT and Business Process SERVICES
2 Davao Doctors Hospital, San Pedro Hospital and DMSF among others.
3 In line with Php 120-M IBM Smarter City Project, formally unveiled in 2013.
Association of the Philippines (IBPAP)

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A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot

Davao City’s Population

2.0

1.5 “What makes the Davao Region an important

catchment market for Davao City?
(millions)

1.0

0.5
It is the fastest growing region.”
0
2000 2007 2010 2013* 2014* 2015*
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). 2013-2015* are estimates made by Davao City
Planning and Development Office.

High Income City Massive Regional Consumer Market (Davao Region)

Davao City’s rapid urbanization and transforming Total Capitalization of Business, Davao City Davao City serves as the regional center of the Davao Responding to this trend, local developers began
(in billion Php) Region (Region XI). As such, the city essentially captures constructing BPO office space as early as 2011 with
economic landscape have placed it among the
country’s high income cities. Based on income, Davao is 220 demand from the entire region. According to 2010 Damosa IT Park, Luisa IT Center, and Filandia IT Center.
consistently part of the top 5 cities and is the only city 210 official census figures, the region houses 4.5 million National players entered more recently with Ayala’s
200 people with 2015 projections at 4.7 million people. Abreeza Corporate Center in 2012 and SM’s dedicated
outside Metro Manila on the list, making it the highest
190 office space in 2013. As of now, the city currently has
earning city beyond the capital.
180 What makes the Davao Region an important catchment
roughly 115,000 sq.m of office space and is expecting
170 market for Davao City? It is the fastest growing region.
5 Highest Earning Cities in the Philippines approximately 20,000 sq.m in the coming year. The
(in million Php) 160 The latest official statistics show that the Davao Region
last five years have seen major BPO companies such as
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
outperformed all other regions in the country in terms
20,000 Source: Davao City Business Bureau Convergys, Teleperformance, Concentrix, Sutherland and
of growth rate, exhibiting an exceptional gross regional
15,000 VXI setting up shop in the city.
domestic product (GRDP) growth rate in 2014 at 9.4%, a
10,000
The economic gains of the city can also be gauged big leap from 6.7% in 2013.
5,000 Comparative Gross Product Growth Rates 2013-2014,
from the city’s transforming economic landscape with At Constant 2000 Prices
0 One of the primary GRDP drivers is the services sector
buildings rising in every corner. We see the emergence
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 with its 2014 growth rate pegged at 8.3%. This is 9.4
of infrastructure like high-rise residential buildings
Quezon Makati Manila associated with the region’s locational advantage as a 10
and mixed- use developments. Among the significant 6.1
Pasig Davao financial and business hub in Southern Philippines. This 5.9
upcoming developments are a mixed-township Davao 8
Source: Bureau of Local Government Finance (BLGF) motivated business expansion into the region, resulting in
Park District and luxury accommodations by Dusit (Dusit 6
the increased demand for property in the form of offices, 4
Thani Residences, DusitD2 Hotel) and the Lubi Plantation
residential, and retail spaces. A prominent example would
The relative high income level of Davao City is indicative of Resort. 2
be the strong Information Communication Technology-
its economic health. A manifestation of Davao’s economic 0
Clearly, Davao City has proven and continues to prove Business Process Outsourcing (ICT-BPO) trend in the Philippines National Capital Davao
progress is the surge in investment, as suggested by GDP Region Region
to be a economically healthy emerging high income city region, and the consequent emergence of IT business
the rise in business capitalization over time. The city Source: PSA
that offers right incentives for business and investment. parks in the region. Davao City, for one, has an active
experienced a 16% increase in total capital from 2011 to
ICT-BPO industry, and was ranked by the IBPAP as
2014 alone.
number one among destinations of ICT investors.
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A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot

The Davao Region also exhibits signs of a maturing
consumer market. According to the National Statistical
Coordination Board (NSCB), the Davao region recorded
the second highest expansion in per capita household
spending in 2014. The region posted a growth rate of 8.5%,
only second to Central Luzon (9.4%). In addition, the region
surpassed the growth of national and Metro Manila per
capita household spending, which were recorded at 3.6%
and 4.3%, respectively. Indicators show that purchasing
power is increasing in the region and this presents ample
opportunity for growth in retail.
Per Capital Household Final Consumption Expenditure
2013-2014 Growth Rate, At Constant 2000 Prices
8.5
10
8 2013
4.3
6 3.6
4 Source: Davao City Tourism Operations Office
2
0 alone, there are about 32 IT-BPO firms that employ more
Philippines National Capital Davao
Region Region
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)
Supporting this growing consumer trend is the Strong Tourism Market
modest increase in overall annual family income in the
Davao City has become a popular tourist destination in than 90% travelers are domestic, therefore leaving a lot
latest official figures. The region experienced a real
the Philippines, in part because it is the urban center of of room to grow for international travelers. We anticipate
income growth rate of 17% between 2006 and 2012.
the South and is also very easily accessible through the that this will be addressed with the opening up of direct
Correspondingly, trends have been pointing towards the
Francisco Bangoy International Airport. The city only international flights at the airport. Nonetheless, domestic
growth of the middle class1, possessing more share in
recently broke the 1 million mark in tourist arrivals in 2012, travelers have proven to be a strong market for retail
total annual income over time. This entails more middle
and has been gaining momentum since. Latest figures tourism, as Filipino travelers tend to include shopping in
class earners likely to spend on mass consumer goods,
show the city hitting 1.5 million by 2014. While these are malls in travel plans.
which comprise a bulk of retail. The middle class grew
impressive numbers, it is important to note that more
by both share and in nominal amounts between 2006
and 2012, eating some share away from the upper class. Tourist Arrivals and Estimated Tourist Receipts in Billion Php (2010-2014), Davao City
Significantly, even considering inflation through time, the
middle class posted a substantial growth of almost 100%, Year Tourist Arrivals Estimated Tourist Receipts (Php Billions)
almost doubling, in total annual family income from 2010 682,821 9.55
2011 744,275 10.42
2006 to 2012.
2012 1,075,000 15.05
1,429,827 22.87
This trend can be attributed to the IT-BPO industry
which has been making strides in the region, especially 2014 1,529,907 17.13
in Davao City. This industry has been producing a
significant amount of middle-class earners. In Davao City
than 20,000 full-time workers.

Share of Middle Class in Total Annual Family Income, Davao Region,

Based on Constant 2000 Prices
47.3 49.4
60 45 44.9
40
7.7
20 5.5

“…domestic travelers have proven to be a

0
Lower Class Middle Upper Class 2006
(Lower 20%) Class (Upper 20%)

strong market for retail tourism, as Filipino

2012
Total Annual Family Income by Class, in million Php, Davao Region,
150,000 At Constant 2000 Prices
100,000 travelers tend to include shopping in malls in
travel plans.”
50,000
0
Lower Class Middle Upper Class
(Lower 20%) Class (Upper 20%)

Source: PSA
1 Middle class in this research refers to the third to eighth deciles of the population, or the middle 80%, as pre-
sented by PSA data.

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A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot

DAVAO RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW Cumulative Supply

Since the opening of its first mall in the early 1990s, followed in ten years. To illustrate the lackluster historical
Davao City has had quite a lethargic retail supply history. retail supply growth, it took the city almost 10 years to
Consequently, retail developers have acknowledged the opportunity in Davao based on the aforementioned factors The city saw its first major mall chain development, SM come close to doubling retail supply since 1997.
and have responded by developing projects in the city. The past 5 years have been the most vibrant so far in terms City Davao, only in 2001, yet no significant development
of retail.
Davao City Cumulative Shopping Mall Supply in SQ.M, 2000-2015
This report will focus on the 4 major shopping malls based on higher observed foot traffic and relative substantial
700,000
presence of international brands. These malls are also the 4 largest malls in the city, and should give a good
perspective on the direction Davao’s overall retail development. 600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

SM CITY DAVAO
SM Prime Holdings
Fortunately, the Davao retail market has evolved the construction of two major malls, namely Ayala Abreeza
GFA: 125,143 SQ.M
Opened 2001 substantially within just the last 5 years. Exhibiting the and SM Lanang Premier, in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
fastest retail growth in the city’s history, the supply of Ayala Abreeza contributed to an additional 134,000 sq.m
AYALA ABREEZA
shopping malls has nearly doubled since 2005 from to retail mall stock, while SM Premier Lanang, currently the
Ayala Land Inc.
GFA: 134,000 SQ.M approximately 350,000 sq.m in 2005 to 660,000 sq.m in largest shopping mall in Mindanao, added 144,000 sq.m.
Opened 2011 2012. This can be attributed to mall expansions in 2012 and

SM PREMIER LANANG
SM Prime Holdings
GFA: 144,236 SQ.M
GAISANO MALL OF DAVAO
Opened 2012
DSG Sons Group, Inc.
GFA: 120,061 SQ.M
Opened 1997 “Exhibiting the fastest retail growth in the city’s history,
the supply of shopping malls has nearly doubled since
2005 from approximately 350,000 sq.m in 2005 to
660,000 sq.m in 2012.”

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

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A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Rental Rate
As of the third quarter of 2015, the average rental rates reason, the surge of retailers into the Davao retail scene
among the major shopping malls in Davao lie within is unsurprising. On the demand side, as seen earlier, the
the Php 900 to 1,000 per sq.m range. The newer, and city and region has a ripe and growing consumer base,
arguably more premiere malls, SM Lanang Premier and and on the supply side, there is a healthy supply of retail
Ayala Abreeza, expectedly ask for much higher rents, offering nationally and internationally competitive rental
ranging between Php 1,100 and Php 1,200 per sq.m, while rates. This retail demand and supply dynamic creates a
Gaisano Mall, which is the oldest among the 4 and the strong case for retailers to locate in the city.
most local in terms of tenancy mix, asks for the lowest
rents, between Php 800 to Php 950 per sq.m. Finally, SM Average Rental Rates, as of Q3 2015, per SQ.M in Php
City Davao, which straddles between both high income
1,400
and middle income markets and commands the highest 1,200
foot traffic among the 4, prices competitively at Php 1,000
800
1,000 per sq.m.
600
400
Relative to Metro Manila retail rents, Davao City’s rents 200
are very competitive. The national capital currently 0 good signal to retail developers to respond accordingly.
SM City SM Lanang Gaisano Ayala
sees retail rents in prime shopping malls at nearly more Davao Premier Mall Abreeza
than double Davao City’s shopping mall rents. For this Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
14
Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot
Vacancy
On average, retail vacancy in Davao City remains low at 9% to 10% range, which is associated with the opening
4% to 5% through the third quarter of 2015. Estimates of Ayala Abreeza in 2011 and the fresh opening of SM
have shown the vacancy rates among the major Lanang Premier in the latter half 2012. In spite of the
shopping malls dropping from the same period last year, additional retail supply, the following years exhibited a
indicating vigorous and consistent demand for retail drastic fall in vacancies, with occupancy rates breaching
space. the 95% mark by 2015. Demand for retail space was
buoyed by the dynamic and aggressive expansion
Vacancy Rates Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2015 of retailers outside Metro Manila. Correspondingly,
rapid take-up of retail space can also be attributed to
8.0%
the influx of international brands responding to the
6.0%
increasing spending power of Davao City locals.
4.0%
2.0% Recent ocular inspections of the malls point to vacancy
rates moving closer to 1%, pushing occupancy to almost
0.0%
SM City SM Lanang Gaisano Ayala 100%. Healthy and rapid take-up of retail space is a
Davao Premier Mall Abreeza
Q3 2014 Q3 2015
The trend is associated with and is indicative of the
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research Estimates
optimism toward Davao City’s dynamic retail and
Noting historical estimated overall Davao City retail consumer market.
vacancy rates we can observe very fast take-up of retail
space. 2013 overall vacancy is estimated to be within the
Estimated Overall Average Vacancy Rate, Q3 2013 to Q3 2015
9.50% 5.30% 4.30%
Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research Estimates
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A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Tenant Mix
The optimism toward Davao retail and the consequent
response of retail developers with additional retail supply
ushered in an influx of retailers. We can now observe a
very international mix of tenants, especially in the newer
Tenant Mix Profile
General Retail*
Shopping Mall
Local
Ayala Abreeza 28%
SM Lanang Premier 37%
SM City Davao 48%
Gaisano Mall 65%
Source: Cushman and Wakefield Research
* General Retail for purposes of this research will refer largely to fast fashion and other non-F&B retailers
Observing dedicated tenants for non-food and beverage
(F&B) general retail (which for the case of Davao is 90%
fast fashion), we see that the major shopping mall tenant
mixes are largely biased towards international retailers
now. This proves especially true for Ayala Abreeza and
SM Lanang Premier, posting an international tenant share
of 72% and 63%, respectively. This is anticipated as both
Ayala Abreeza and SM Lanang Premier have always
marketed themselves as the premier and upscale malls
of the city. Although not as significant as the premier
malls, a majority of SM City Davao’s general retail tenant
share is attributed to international retailers as well. This
is a huge development from when it opened in 2001 with
a primarily local tenant mix. Lastly, while homegrown
Gaisano Mall is still mostly local, it has also exhibited
a drastic evolution from when it opened in 1997 with a
completely local tenant mix.
16
Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot
Increased International Brand Presence
malls of Ayala and SM. This is a drastic departure from Davao City has seen more than 60 international retailers locating into the city since 2011. This coincided with the
6 years ago when tenants were predominantly local opening of Ayala Abreeza and SM Lanang, which welcomed a diversity of international brands. In general retail,
brands. or fast fashion, notable mentions would be American Eagle Outfitters, Cotton On, Gap, Aeropostale, Forever 21,
Sperry, Marks and Spencer, Herschel and Aldo among many others. Despite still being overshadowed by local
retailers, food and beverage also saw an arrival of foreign retailers, such as Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, Krispy Kreme,
Bonchon, Happy Lemon, Cha Time, and Starbucks Coffee. A few upscale brands have also made their way into the
Food and Beverage
market, which is suggestive of the maturity of the city’s consumer market. Brands like Armani Exchange, Charriol,
International Local International
Technomarine, and Phillip Stein have entered Davao.
72% 80% 20%
63% 83% 17%
52% 82% 18%
35% 89% 11%
Among the International Brands That Entered Davao
The opposite trend is true however for food and
beverage retailers. The food and beverage market
is still dominated by local players, accounting for
approximately more than 80% of the tenant share in
major shopping malls. This may be because food and
General Retail
beverage is localized and is typically attuned to local
tastes. Moreover, the rich local food scene in Davao City
is embedded in the lifestyle of the locals that what is
local just naturally appeals to them. Also, local food and
beverage retailers tend to price more competitively. For Food & Beverage
these reasons, local food and beverage retailers are able
to compete and dominate international retailers. This is
in stark contrast with general retail, especially for fast
fashion, wherein there is a general inclination towards
and preference for international brands, thus allowing
international brands to overshadow local ones.
Source: Cushman and Wakefield Research
cushmanwakefield.com | 17
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Retail Beyond the Capital Davao City Retail Snapshot

OUTLOOK

Davao has shown to be an appropriate market for retail expansion beyond

the capital. Its demographics have dictated the surge in retail supply in
recent years, and in turn the rise in retail demand ushering in the influx of
retailers. The rapid take-up of retail space in major malls is sure to keep
occupancy rates at a high, with optimistic projections looking at close to
100% occupancy by 2016.

So, with retail supply in the existing major malls nearing saturation, the
question arises: where does future retail growth of the city take place?
While there are no visible major shopping mall projects in the city’s pipeline
yet, future retail development is looking to take place in many of Davao’s
mixed-used developments. Township developments, such as the upcoming
Davao Park District, will incorporate retail strips and a lifestyle mall to cater
to retail expansion. IT Parks and IT-BPO buildings have also integrated retail
components into their developments. Case-in-point would be recently
opened mixed-use development Felcris Centrale, which is an IT-BPO office
with a two-floor retail podium. This corresponds with overall real estate
trends that respond to the need of the majority demographic- the working
age population. Therefore, the outlook now is that we will be seeing retail
integrated into workplaces and mixed-use township communities.

Of course, this does not take major shopping malls out of the picture. Major
malls tend to evolve over time, more often than not expanding retail space
in the process. Many of the major mall developers in the Davao, like SM and
Ayala, have sizable land banks that allow for any form of expansion.

The bourgeoning consumer market in Davao City will continue to encourage

real estate developers, and provide opportunities for local and foreign
retailers. While Davao retail is already more dynamic than it has ever been,
it will become even more vibrant as new developers and retailers enter the
market. With the right demographic fundamentals, the social infrastructure
to support the demographic, and an energetic and fresh retail sector, Davao
City is poised for further retail development and is surely a retail destination
to look out for outside the capital.

18 cushmanwakefield.com | 19
For more information about C&W Research, contact:

Jude David Roque Janlo de los Reyes

Senior Analyst Manager

Research and Consultancy Research and Consultancy
jude.roque@ap.cushwake.com janlo.delosreyes@ap.cushwake.com

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