er I

RAINFALL-RUNOFF FLOOD MODELLING IN NAIROBI URBAN

WATERSHED, KENYA

By

Nathan Mweu Muli

"A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the

award of the degree of Master of Science in (Hydrology and Water
Resources) in the School of Pure and Applied Sciences of Kenyatta
University"

Department of Geography
Kenyatta University

(2008)
Muli,Nathan Mweu
Rainfall-runoff flood
modelling in Nairobi

1III1I1IIIII11
06/330627
 DECLARATION

This thesis is my original work and has not been presented for degree awarding in any
other University.

Nathan Mweu Muli

Adm.No.I56/10516/04

Signature..... ~ .... Date... RS.(.s: l7.Q)~g

This thesis has been submitted with our approval as University supervisors.

Supervisors:

1. Dr. Christopher.M.Ondieki
Department of Geography
Kenyatta University

Signature .. ~~~ Date.~l.lOS{.Q~

2. Dr.Wambua Kaluli
Department of Biomechanical and Environmental Engineering
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology

Signature~.~'nate···:::l..·~·I·.?.I·0'8
 11

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was flood modelling in Nairobi watershed based on a
rainfall-runoff process, considering urban development and its effects on the Nairobi
watershed. The study area map was generated from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
developed from Survey of Kenya (SoK) topomap sheets 14811-4 with a scale of
1:50,000, georeferenced and delineated on the basis of the natural flow boundaries.
The Nairobi river Channel data base was developed through a field survey using a
digital Theodolite (Topcon 500 series). The HEC-HMS model was calibrated and
used to optimize, extract and process the input parameters of the Nairobi watershed.
The rainfall seasons in the watershed were found to be Bimodal with a precipitation
Index of 850mm. Daily historical precipitation and stream flow data obtained from
Meteorological department and MOW &1 were used to calibrate the model. For model
calibration, 3BA29 RGS (April 1SI_May3151) 1981 stream flow data was used. Data
for (April 1SI_May 3151) 1982 was used for model verification. The Manning's
roughness coefficient 'n' and bed slope of the channel were determined by
estimation. In the HEC-HMS model; initial loss, basin losses and basin transforms
were established. The model can be used to predict floods in Nairobi under the
existing and future conditions. Among the parameters, SCS lag time was the most
sensitive parameters. Its variation depicted land use changes. The Watershed has a
composite Curve Number (CN) value of 89 and 55 % imperviousness. Soil survey
data showed that the watershed was overlain by soils of Hydrological Soil Grouping
(HSG) class C of flow infiltration rate. Scenarios were simulated to answer the "what
if' question used to depict urban changes. Increased 12avemeIlts, roads and buildings
reduced the SCS lag time. As a result, the watershed developed a quick response to
precipitation. A correlation between the observed and simulated data gave a
coefficient of determination of 0.82. Flood Frequency Analysis (FF A) was carried out
using the Gumbel Extreme Value type1 (EV1) statistical method. It showed that
Nairobi had a 43 % chance of flooding after every 2.33 years. Development in the
watershed increased the imperviousness from 55 % to 60 %. The impact of this was
an increased mean annual flow from 50m3/s to 345m3/s. This was a 600 % increment
and the present drainage cannot cope, thus making the study area to be in danger of
being flooded. The Muskingum-Cunge-8-Point Routing method was used to route the
flood along the Nairobi river channel. Flood waves generated recede by 3 % and take
2 hrs and 45minutes to travel from inlet to the outlet. The Questionnaire data was
analyzed using the (SPSS) 11.5. The stakeholders were of the opinion that; the
drainage system was poorly maintained, inadequate and it required rehabilitation.
This was one of the main causes of flooding in Nairobi. The HEC-HMS model
simulations generated threshold peak flows which can be used for planning, design of
cross drainage works and other storm water drains in Nairobi city and other Kenyan
cities. It can be customized for flood prediction in other urban watersheds. The city
requires surface and subsurface drainage to remove water pools after long and short
duration storms. There is need for structural and non structural measures to mitigate
for floods and to install the Best Management Practices (BMPs) to reduce flooding
potential in the city. Drainage rehabilitation, fresh planning and design are required
for the city to enable it cope with the increased development.
 III

Dedication

"Unto Him who cares for me, I dedicate all this work. He gave me a hope like no other
could give .... "
 IV

Acknowledgements

My special gratitude goes to the chairman of Geography Department; Dr.Ondieki and all
the members of lecturing staff. I am especially grateful to my supervisors; Dr. Ondieki
and Dr. Kaluli for their guidance. I would like to thank all the people who assisted me
directly or indirectly with my studies. I am indeed grateful to the Principal Kenya
Polytechnic University College for allowing me time and resources during my studies. I
am thankful to Mr. Mutune of Kenya Polytechnic University College, Mr.Wambua from
Katumani (KARI), Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MOW&I) research division,
Meteorological Department, Nairobi City Council; City Engineer's Department,
Consulting firms, NGOs and other data Centers for their valuable information. To the
PolyGIS staff in Kenya Polytechnic University College; I say thank you for the time you
spared me. Special thanks to my family for being there for me. Without you, it could not
have been easy for me. In one way or other you made my life comfortable throughout my
studies. My cherished friends Francis and family, Joash, Titus, Kaliti, Kasimu, Japheth,
Nderitu, Paul, Ruth and many other close persons. You all deserve my sincere gratitude
for the concern, moral support and the encouragement you offered me. I would like to
express my humble appreciation to my friends and classmates EUy, Mwangi, Sungu,
Maunda and the late Wanyonyi for their encouragement during our studies.
 v

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Declaration .i

Abstract .ii

Dedication .iii

Acknowledgement .iv

Table of contents v

List of Tables vi

List of figures vii

Acronyms and Abbreviations viii

CHAPTER 1 1

1.0 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1General Introduction 1
1.1.1 Background study of the Sub-catchment area 3
1.1.2 Location 3
1.1.3 Topography 5
1.1.4 Surface Geology and Soils of the study area 6
1.1.4.1 Geology 6
1.1.4.2 Soils 7
1.1.5 Climate 9
1.2 Statement and Research Problem 11
1.3 Justification 11
1.4 Research Questions 12
1.5 Hypothesis 12
1.6 Research Objectives 12
1.7 Significance of the study 13
1.8 Limitations and Scope 13

CHAPTER 2 14

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW 14

2.1 Land use and Urbanization 14
2.1.1 Land use 15
 VI

2.1.2 Urbanization 15
2.2 Hydroc1imatological Patterns in Nairobi Sub-catchment 19
2.3 Impact of Gardening .22
2.4 Drainage systems in Nairobi Sub-catchment area .23
2.4.1 The existing drainage network in Nairobi Watershed 24
2.5 Role of Mass Wasting in Urban Flooding 25
2.6 Flood Estimation Methods 27
2.7 Flood Frequency Studies 28
2.7.1 Flood Frequency 29
2.7.2 The Gumbel Extreme Value distribution type 1 (EVI) 29
2.7.3 Peak Flows 32
2.7.4 Standard Error (SE) 33
2.7.5 Analysis of Annual Maximum Series 33
2.7.6 Fitting the Extreme Value Distribution 34
2.8 Flood Hydrograph Generation 35
2.9 Modelling 36
2.9.1 IHACRES Model. 37
2.9.2 The HEC-HMS ModeL :.38
2.9.3 Modeling Runoff Losses 43
2.9.4 Precipitation Methods 45
2.9.5 Muskingum flood Routing Model. .45
2.9.6 Muskingum-Cunge-8-point Method .48
2.9.7 Flood Mitigation Measures .49
2.9.8 Best Management Practices 51

CHAPTER 3 53

3.0 METHODOLOGy 53
3.1 Data Acquisition 53
3.1.1 Secondary data 54
3.1.2 Primary data 56
3.2 Model selection and application 57
3.2.1 Model Selection 58
3.2.2 Model Application 59
3.2.3 Watershed RunoffProcesses 61
3.2.4 Rainfall-Runoffprocess 62
3.2.4.1 Model component creation 62
3.2.4.2 Basin Model. 62
3.2.4.3 Meteorological Model. 63
3.2.4.4 Control Specifications 64
3.2.4.5 Hard Constraints 65
3.2.4.6 SCS Curve Number (CN) Loss 66
3.2.4.7 The SCS UH 67
3.2.5 Model Calibration and Verification 68
3.2.5.1 Model Calibration 69
3.2.5.2 Model Verification 72
 vu

3.2.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis 72

3.2.5.4 Search Methods 73
3.2.5.5 Result viewing 74
3.3 Flood magnitudes and Frequencies 74
3.3.1 Flood magnitudes 75
3.3.2 Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) 76
3.4 Flood Routing 77
3.4.1 Muskingum-Cunge-Svpoint method 78
3.4.2 The Flood wave 80
3.5 Conditions of the Present Drainage 80

CHAPTER 4 82

4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 82

4.1 HEC-HMS Mode1. 82

4.2 Model Calibration 83
4.2.1 Model Verification 89
4.3 Flood Magnitudes and Frequencies 91
4.3.1 Flood Magnitudes 91
4.3.2 Stage-Discharge relationship 95
4.3.3 Flood Frequency 96
4.4 Flood Routing 98
4.5 Drainage Conditions 103

CHAPTERS 113

5.0 Conclusions and Recommendations l13

5.1 Conclusions 113

5.2 Recommendations 114

REFERENCES 117
 Vlll

APPENDICES 125

Appendix 1: Meteorological Model Precipitation data 125

Appendix 2: Flood magnitude for simulated and observed data 126
Appendix 3: Stage-Discharge relationship 127
Appendix 4: Muskingum-Cunge-8-Point Routing data 128
Appendix 5: peak Annual discharges 130
Appendix 6: HEC-HMS Application Procedure 131
Appendix 7: Questionnaire (Sample) 132
Appendix 8: Analyzed Questionnaire results using SPSS 11.5 Version 138
 IX

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Location map of the sub-catchment and the delineated study area 3BA. .4
Figure 1.2: Spatial distribution of gauging stations 5
Figure 1.3: Annual rainfall for the sub-catchment area 10
Figure 2.1: Distribution ofland use in Nairobi Watershed 15
Figure 3.1: HEC-HMS Run-offprocesses 62
Figure 3.2: Muskingum-Cunge-8-point configuration 78
Figure 4.1: Nairobi Sub-catchment schematic 83
Figure 4.2: Calibration graph based on (Aril 1st - May 31 st) 1981 data 84
Figure 4.3: Scatter Graph of Simulate and observed hydro graph in 3BA29 RGS 86
Figure 4.4: Residual graph of simulated and observed hydro graph 3BA29 RGS 88
Figure 4.5: Objective function graph 89
Figure 4.6: Model verification using (April 1st -may 31 st ) 1982 data 90
Figure 4.7: Correlation between observed and simulated flow 91
Figure 4.8: Hydrograph for 1981 annual stream flow data at 3BA29 RGS 92
Figure 4.9: Rainfall hyetograph for the long rain season 93
Figure 4.10: Scenario when imperviousness is 60 % 94
Figure 4.11: Scenario when imperviousness is 65 % 95
Figure 4.12: Rating curve for 3BA29 RGS 96
Figure 4.13: Frequency curve based on 3BA29 RGS stream flow data 97
Figure 4.14: Probability of exceedance on 3BA29 RGS 98
Figure 4.15: An inflow Hydrograph generated at 3BA29 RGS 99
Figure 4.16: An outflow graph at Kariobangi south bridge 100
Figure 4.17: Phase-speed of routed flood from inlet to outlet point.. 101
Figure 4.18: Nairobi floodwave profile from 3BA29 RGS to Kariobangi south bridge. 103
Figure 4.19: Level of investment to improve drainage 110
Figure 4:20: Distribution of Highway drainage system in Nairobi 111
 x

List of Tables

Table 2.1: Infiltration rate for various soils (after Skagg and Khaleel, 1982) .44
Table 3.1:.Limits of hard constraints used in calibration 65
Table 4.1: Calibration parameters 85
Table 4.2: Modelled results after calibration 87
Table 4.3: Observed results after calibration 87
Table 4.4: Analyzed stream flow magnitudes and return periods 97
Table 4.5: Flood Routing results from 3BA 29 RGS 102
 Xl

List of Plates

Plate 2.1: Flooded 0 le Shapara Avenue in Nairobi South C 17

Plate 2.2: A flood in Kitsuru estate in Nairobi (May 9th 2002) 17
Plate 2.3: Nairobi experiences water shortage after floods (Karobia, 2003) 18
Plate 2.4: Flooded section of Lusaka Road Industrial area causes a traffic jam 19

Plate 2.5: Blocked Culvert on Isiolo Road in Nairobi Industrial area .21

Plate 2.6: A pot hole section on Haile Selassie Avenue .22

Plate 2.7: A Catchpit on Haile Selassie Avenue in the Nairobi CBD filled with debris 24
Plate 2.8: A grassed Kerb grating on Workshop road in the Nairobi 25
Plate 2.9: Waste Dump on Commercial Street in Nairobi Industrial area .26
Plate 2.10: Nairobi Kwa Reuben Slum under Flood Threat.. 28

Plate 2.11: Receding flood in part of Nairobi River 51

Plate 4.1: A flooded section of Jabavu Road at Hurlingham after a storm 104

Plate 4.2: Garbage heap next to kiosk on Commercial Street Industrial area l05

Plate 4.3: Section of Enterprise road with no drainage 106

Plate 4.4: An open ditch overflows on Ngong Road 107

Plate 4.5: A channel on Bunyala Road under vegetation cover 108

Plate 4.6: Level crossing at Tetra pak on Enterprise road Industrial area l 09
Plate 4.7: Floods turns Dunga road in Industrial area, into an open channel.. 111
Plate 4.8: An office property off Enterprise road inaccessible due to flooding .l12
 Xll

Acronyms and Abbreviations

ARF Area Reduction Factor

A.M.S.L Above Mean Sea Level
RM.P's Best Management Practices
CN Curve Number
DEM Digital Elevation Model
DRC Dynamic Response Characteristics
DSS Data Storage System
EVl Extreme Value type 1
FFA Flood Frequency Analysis
GIS Geographical Information System
GUI Graphical User Interface
HEC Hydrologic Engineering Center
HEC-l Hydrologic Engineering Center 1
HEC-RAS Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System
HGS Hydrological Soil Group
HMS Hydrologic Modeling System
IHACRES Identification of unit Hydrograph And Component flows from Rainfall,
Evaporation and Stream flow data
KARI Kenya Agricultural Research Station
KSS Kenya Soil Survey
MAP Mean Annual Precipitation
M-C-8 Muskingum-Cunge-8 point
MLRR& WD Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Development
MOR&PW Ministry of Roads and Public Works
MOWD Ministry of Water development
MOW&I Ministry of Water and Irrigation
M.W.R&I Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
NERC National Environmental Resource Conservation
NCC Nairobi City Council
NSSC National Soil Survey Center
 Xlll

NAL National Agricultural Laboratory

P.d.f Probability density function
PET Potential Evapotranspiration
PCDs Physical Catchment Descriptors
PMF Probable Maximum Flood
QA Quality Assurance
QC Quality Control
RGS Regular Gauging Station
SCS Soil Conservation Service
SFI Slow Flow Index
SMA Soil Moisture Accounting
SK Survey of Kenya
SPAS School of Pure and Applied Sciences
SPF Standard Project Flood
SPS Standard Project Storm
SPSS Statistical Package for Social Sciences
SWAT Soil Water Analysis Tool
TRRL Transport Road Research Laboratories
UH Unit Hydrograph
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
USACE United States Army Corp of Engineers
UTM Universal Transverse Marketer
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WMS Water Management System
 1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 General Introduction

Urban development worldwide affects the surface runoff due to the spread of

settlements; and other auxiliary features such as roads, pavements and air fields.

During periods of high intensity storms, there is little doubt on what happens on the

city streets with respect to drainage (Bauer, 1969, Savini and Kemmerer, 1961, Hall,

1985). Due to urban development, large areas of high infiltration rate have been

reduced in most urban areas. Falling precipitation is caught on roof tops, paved roads

and then passed through designed drainage systems (Ward and Robinson, 1990). The

drainage system may not be well maintained for efficient disposal of storm water into

Nairobi River, Mathare, Gitathuru, Ngong Rivers and other streams in the sub-

catchment as rapidly as possible. Anderson, (1968) found that urban development

and lack of maintenance are two factors which when combined increase the flood

peaks by between two and eight times in some of the cities in the U.S.A. Espey et aI,

(1966) also found that, urban development resulted in discharges which were between

100 - 300 percent greater than those in underdeveloped rural areas. According to

Pereira (1973), floods are symptoms of land misuse, but not all floods are due to

human mismanagement.

In the Nairobi watershed, it is of interest to note that apart from peak flows, urban

development has affected water quality and a wide range of other hydrological

variables. Human factors are responsible for the apparent increase in severity of

floods witnessed in Nairobi in recent times. In Nairobi area, heavy rain occurs in the
 2

evenings spreading through to early morning during the short rains in November. Part

of this rain results from effects of the highlands close by after 5:00 pm (Thompson,

1957). Nairobi major storms occur between November and May, but some storms are

recorded in the 'dry' months of January and February as well. Many factors combine

to increase peak flows and magnitudes of floods, partly this could be due to rapid

movement of runoff or quick flow (Ward, 1975). Knowledge of the flow magnitudes,

volume and peak stages in the existing drainage network, contribute greatly to

measures that can be taken to protect city residents from floods.

Floods are defined as high rates of discharge that lead to inundation of land adjacent

to rivers and streams, damaging property and interfering with human activities and

settlements as a result of quick flow rather than base flow (Reddi, 1992). Reduced

infiltration rates, changed drainage network, efficiency and increased rainfall intensity

due to climatIc chcmg have contn·6oted to increased flood seventy in many Afiican

cities (Imbamba, 1990). Villages in Nairobi especially slum areas and to some extent

some of the up-market residential estates have always been affected by floods

(Jenkins, 2001). A study carried out showed that five African countries including

Kenya are vulnerable to climatic change, which is characterized by sea rise and

increased flooding. This is known as La Nifia which according to Ibe and Awasike

(1989), is related to periodic African drought, while El Nifio is associated with excess

rain. According to Wisler and Brater (1959), hydrologic and hydraulic analyses

provide sound technical basis for flood mitigation.

 3

1.1.1 Background study of the watershed area

The watershed area is located in the upper part of the Athi River drainage basin three.

The greater Athi basin occupies an area of 66,837 knr'. The basin has a mean annual

rainfall of 740mm (MOWD, 1992). In essence, the Nairobi watershed is part of the

upper Athi drainage area, which represents only 3 % of drainage area three.

1.1.2Location

Nairobi sub-catchment area is part of the upper Athi drainage basin three. It is

situated between Embakasi-Athi plains to south and east, and the broken landscape of

the Kenya highlands in the north and west. The larger upper Athi sub-catchment from

the farthest point to the lowest outlet point covers a total area of 1942 square

kilometers. It lies between 360 24' and 370 4' east Longitudes and 10 9' and 10 28'

Latitudes to the south of the Equator (MOWD, 1992). The upper Athi drainage area

was created from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). On the map of Kenya at a

smaller scale, the geographical position of the sub-catchment was delineated. The

actual study area; watershed 3BA, was further delineated from the larger upper Athi

sub-catchment (figure 1.1). It shows the entire natural drainage network in the sub-

catchment. On the watershed area map; the rain gauge stations, regular gauging

stations, shopping centres, roads and natural drainage networks were georeferenced.

District boundaries, watershed boundary and the study area were marked as indicated

(figure 1.2).
 4

_ WMersned study Are••

c::J Dllltrlct Bound ••rl".

200 o 200 400

• Rainfa 11go ug ng St;rti on

• RIver Gaugng St;rtion
• ShoWi ng Centres
o astrict Bourdary
20 0 2 Kilometer. /\/ RIver
~i ~~~ __ ~~~~~~\ D W-..tershed Bourdary
IIlID Study Area

Fig. 1.1: Location map of the upper Athi sub-catchment and study area 3BA
 5

Nairobi Sub-catchment with hydromet stations

•••

1:250000

10000 o 10000 20000 /It, t rs

Fig. I. 2 Spatial distribution of gauging stations

1.1.3 Topography

Nairobi watershed area is divided into two physiographic land forms; the western and

northern rising between 1905m to 1975m above mean sea level (amsl) forming parts

of the Kikuyu Plateau. The Eastern and lower parts to the South East are generally

low and flat, about 1600m above mean sea level (amsl) forming the Athi Plains. It

exhibits a low gradient of approximately 2%. When it rains, much of the land

experiences ponding which later culminates into flooding. To the West of the

escarpment, very few areas exhibit plateau characteristics. This landscape changes

further to the west of Dagoretti, Karen, Kikuyu, Kabete and the northern suburbs of

the city centre with its undulating valleys, streams and rivers, most of which are

perennial. These areas are characterized by sharp gradients and soils of low
 6

infiltration rates. The watershed has numerous streams and their tributaries which

join the Athi River to the South and East. The rivers and their tributaries form a

Dendritic pattern (tree branch-like pattern) (figure 1.1). Nairobi River is one of the

main rivers in the 3BA watershed area. It originates from Ndindiri swamp in Kikuyu

Escarpment (MLRR&WD, 1998).

1.1.4 Surface Geology and Soils

The geological formations in Nairobi watershed have highly influenced the soil

patterns, land forms and the natural drainage network (Sikes, 1939). Deep soils and

gravels of Quaternary age cover all the formations. The drainage area which is

characterized by the rift faulting is endoreic. Most of the runoff seems to collect in

depressions where it infiltrated and evaporates (Sagggerson, 1991).

1.1.4.1 Geology

Nairobi sub-catchment area has a history of successive volcanic activities, with layers

of tuff and lava which have been subjected to varying degrees of weathering. The

area has layers of black tuff, normally between 2m and 10m thickness. This is

overlain by expansive clays with some phases of yellow softer tuff interposed and

underlain by agglomeratic tuffs and lava. Under the black clays are layers of tuff

underlain by phonolite lava to depths between 10m to 25m. The watershed is an area

where volcanic activity had dominated the geological history, and controlled the

geomorphological evolution (MLRR&WD, 1998). The Nairobi trachytes stretch from

Dagoretti-Karen area to the East of Nairobi and extent North of Kiambu to Githuguri.
 7

They are formed of superimposed subsequent trachytic lava flows occasionally

porphyritic, with phenocrysts of feldspar in affine-grained matrix (Gaevaerts, 1964)

The rock system in Nairobi area mainly compnses of succession of Lavas and

Pyroclastics of the Cainozoic age overlying the folded Schists and Gneiss of the

Precambrian Basement system. The western part of the sub-catchment area has been

affected by faulting at least in three different periods. The Eastern half of the sub-

catchment area, which is an erosion plain, gently dips to the South from an average

elevation of 1650m to I 540m at the confluence of the Athi and Nairobi Rivers. It is

also underlain by almost horizontally lying tertiary rocks. The north merges into

young tuffs and lavas (Gaevaerts, 1964). During the recent volcanic activity, Nairobi

seems to have had two main drainage systems; one line running in the general

direction of Moi Avenue, which was probably the old line of Nairobi River that has

changed its course to the present one. The other one runs from Parliament area

towards the Railway Station. The old watercourse is indicated by the present out

crops of the upper and middle tuff of the city centre. The existing ground surface

being substantially level is thought of being a plateau (Sikes, 1939).

1.1.4.2 Soils

Soil patterns in Kenya are very intricate because of their striking differences in

altitude, landforms, shape, stability, age, geology and climate (KSS, 1980). The soil

exploratory survey incorporated all the information available on Kenyan soils upto the

end of 1979. The soil survey reveals the complex relation between landforms and

geology in many parts of Kenya (Sombroek et aI., 1982). The central parts of the
 8

Nairobi watershed consists of LI1 (LBvp) type of soil. These are limestones, calcitic

mudstones, in plateaus and high level structural plains that are flat, gently undulating

and sloped at a rate less than 8%. This type of soil occupies almost two-thirds of the

watershed area. It is imperfectly drained, very deep, dark greyish, brown to black,

bouldery and stony with cracking clay. Along the Nairobi River Valley, alluvial

deposits from various sources are found. This soil is categorized as A18 (AAje). It is

a complex of well drained to imperfectly drained, very deep, dark greyish brown to

dark reddish brown, stratified soils of varying consistency and texture(Eutric

Fluvisols). The extreme western parts of the sub-catchment area are overlain by soils

ofR3 (RBne) type extending from areas ofNgong Hills all the way to Limuru. These

are well drained soils, extremely deep, dusky red to dark reddish brown, friable clay

with inclusions of well drained, moderately deep, dark red to dark greyish brown,

friable clay over rock, pisoferric or petroferric materials(Eutric Nitisols; with Nito-

Chromic, Cambisols, and Chromic Acrisols, partly Pisoferric or petroferric phase).

There are isolated deposits of M5 (Mvbc) in Ngong area which were well drained,

shallow to moderately deep, dark reddish brown, friable, humic, rock and stony, clay

loam(Humic Cambisols, Rocky and partly Lithic Phase). Limuru area has scanty R3

(RBne) which are Eutric Nitisols; with Nito-chromic Cambisols, and Chromic

Acrisols, partly of pisoferric or petroferric phase. The Nairobi city center has patches

of well drained, shallow brown, firm gravelly clay, with a stony to bouldery surface

(Chromic Cambisols, Lithic and Boulder) mantle phase. These are tiny patches of L9

(LBhv2 soil imperfectly drained, very deep, dark greyish brown, firm clay (Verto-

luvic Phaeozems; with Eutric Planosols in the city center (KSS, 1980). Ngong area to

the extreme west has some isolated spots overlain by the complex well drained soils

of type F9. These are deep, reddish brown to very dark greyish brown, firm, sandy
 9

loam to clay soils. In some cases, the soils are moderately calcareous (undifferentiated

Luvisols, Luvic Phaeozems and Chromic Vertisols). In the areas around Athi river

Town, there were patches ofV2 (Vc2) existing which are a complex of well drained

to imperfectly drained shallow to moderately very dark, greyish brown, firm, slightly

to moderately calcareous, rock stony or gravelly clay. They overlie the southern and

the south-eastern parts of the sub-catchment area. These soils combined have a

permeability coefficient between 0.013 and 0.38 cm/hr (KSS, 1980).

1.1.5 Climate

Nairobi watershed area is situated in the ecological zone five, which is classified as

sub-humid. The Western and the Northern parts border the high potential highland

areas. The annual mean rainfall of Nairobi watershed is 900mm, which is distributed

over long rains from mid March to May with the short rains from mid October to mid

December. The Nairobi temperature conditions are characterized by a small and a

large diurnal range; this is due to high temperatures during the day and low

temperatures in the night. The mean annual temperatures have been found to be 23° C,

characterized by small annual and large diurnal range due to high temperatures during

the day, and low temperatures during the night. Nairobi watershed experiences two

rainy seasons; short and long rains, which usually occur in November-December and

March-May respectively. The watershed experienced mean annual rainfall of about

900mm. This amount of rainfall decreases from the Kikuyu escarpments to 250mm in

the Athi plains. Throughout the year, the watershed experiences both seasonal and

unseasonal storms. This was clearly exemplified in the rainfall hyetographs based on

the rainfall data for Dagoretti, Muguga, National Agricultural Laboratories (K.A.R.I),
 10

Moi Airbase, Wilson Airport and JKIA Rainfall Stations. It is apparent that; at certain

times in the year, storms which are out of season and of low magnitudes are

experienced in the watershed area (figure 1.3).

1200~------~~~~~~~~~~--~~~
1000 +---------~----------------~------~
~ 800 +-------1..----..:...-.--..:...-....;........,--..:...-.----1
-~ 600 +----------tft--rl------.:.......-.:.......-o.--~~----___;
I:

~ 400 +---------~~~+-----~----~~~~~----~
200 +-------11-

o ~itiIn;blnml1lllt

1 32 63 94 125 156 187 218 249 280 311 342

Time in days 11981 Jan.-Dec. \

Fig. 1.3: Annual Rainfallfor the watershed

The March to April rain season is characterized by the highest rainfall peaks recorded

of close to 1200mm (Lamba, 1994). The highest precipitation peaks are noted at the

beginning of the season, and sometimes towards the end of the season. The months of

November to December marks the short rain season, with low rainfall peaks of close

to 250mm on the average. During this period, the highest peaks are recorded around

the middle of the season. From the records available, this watershed area has very

few months in the year without precipitation. The Dagoretti meteorological Station is

found in the central region of the watershed. It recorded higher values of precipitation

compared to Muguga Station, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and Moi Air Base.

January and September appears to be the only months with scanty amounts of rainfall

according to the records. Regardless of the direction of the storm, topography and the
 11

shape of the watershed, the spatial rainfall distribution seems to be uniform over the

entire watershed.

1.2 Statement of the Research Problem

Nairobi watershed experiences floods quite often; therefore, this has increased the

need for flood prevention over the years. The El-Nifio floods and other subsequent

floods destroyed water supply, power supply telecommunication systems, drainage

and other facilities in Nairobi (Ali, 1997). At present there is inadequate knowledge

on factors, which contribute to flooding in Nairobi, and the impact thereof is not well

documented. There is also lack of well-defmed guidelines on control, Best

management Practices and mitigation measures to ameliorate the flooding menace in

Nairobi and other Kenyan towns and cities.

1.3 Justification

Flooding in the Nairobi watershed is a hazard. When floods occur, they cut off

certain areas of the city for many hours. Roads and bridges are usually submerged

and people get trapped in the city center (Jenkins, 2001). There is need therefore to

understand the dynamics, magnitude and frequency of floods so as to quantify and

enable proper planning and provision of mitigation measures (Moriba, 2006). Results

of this study will contribute to the advent of well organized mitigation measures in the

Nairobi watershed area, and Kenya as a whole in other towns with a similar problem.

This will provide a flood model for Nairobi.

 12

1.4 Research Questions

(a) What are the peak runoff rates from the Nairobi watershed areas during rains?

(b) Will the future development of the open land areas of the watershed increase or

decrease the peak runoff in the Nairobi watershed area?

(c) What will be the magnitudes of flow/volumes and peak stages with the existing

drainage structures?

(d) What interventions can be put in place to protect city residents against floods?

(e) What is the state of the existing natural and artificial drainage system in Nairobi?

1.5 Hypothesis

Nairobi watershed has some engineered and natural drainage systems. Because of

poor maintenance and inadequate drainage systems, the city experiences floods at

times when there are high intensity storms in season or off season.

1.6Research Objectives

The main objective of this research is to study flooding in Nairobi watershed area

for the purpose of flood mitigation and urban storm water management. The specific

objectives were:

(a) To model the Nairobi floods

(b) To determine the magnitude and frequency of floods in Nairobi for the

existing records.

(c) To route the floods and establish the dynamics of the flood wave for selected
 13

reaches of the Nairobi River.

(d) To investigate the conditions of the present drainage in Nairobi, in order to

propose mitigation and Best management measures.

1.7 Significance of the Study

This study seeks to:

(a) Provide a storm water model for the Nairobi watershed.

(b) Use the model as a tool to install preventive measures against

floods in other urban centers in Kenya .

.(c) Use mode led results to improve the current system and management practices

of the drainage network in the watershed area.

1.8 Limitations and Scope

This study was limited to watershed 3BA in the Nairobi sub-catchment area, which

forms part of the headwaters of the Athi catchment. There was a problem in obtaining

continuous and accurate data, since most gauging stations were no longer functional.

Most of the data centres complained of lack of funds and field personnel who can

collect the data. The scope of the study was to establish Nairobi flood magnitudes

and frequencies with the continued urban development and simulate a model that can

be used to predict and route floods along the Nairobi River channel, with the aim of

providing structural, non-structural mitigation measures and install the Best

Management Practices for storm water in the watershed.

 14

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

The watershed consists of communities, people, soil, water, fanning activities and

industries. These are components which exist and interact with their bio-physical and

socio-economic environments, that is, everything external to the watershed. It is

dynamic and adaptive to systems, which change due to natural and human induced

processes. Some of the processes alter the watershed components temporarily or

permanently (Nderitu, 2006). The natural ecosystems are assumed to generally

function around a dynamic equilibrium state or multiple stable states. People respond

to states of the watershed systems by taking management actions or changing policies

or rules to force the system to move towards another state (Holling, 1986). This

review highlighted methodologies used elsewhere in the world to carry out

hydrological studies. It focused on flooding, recorded events associated with Hydro

climatology and drainage conditions in Nairobi.

2.1 Land use and Urbanization

There are so many dynamic changes taking place in the Nairobi watershed due to

urban development. As communities develop, the existing settlements attract other

settlers and demands for additional area for habitation, manufacturing and agriculture.

Channels that are only occasionally occupied by the streams and low bottom lands are

filled and built upon. Bridges are built without provisions for extra floods. Normal

channels are restricted. This causes floods to rise in height creating increased velocity

needed to carry water through the reduced channel. Sometimes the channel banks
 15

cave in, carrying stumps and trees into the stream. The channel banks are used as

dumping areas by the slum inhabitants MWRI& WD, 1997).

2.1.1 Land use

Different land uses compete for space in the airobi watershed. This had resulted to

intensification of some uses at the expense of others. Land uses ignored

environmental issues in the watershed, a factor that led to land degradation. The main

land uses in the watershed are residential, industrial, commercial, institutional,

recreational and agricultural (Lamb a, 1994). Land use distribution in Nairobi

watershed had shown that; 69 % of the land was under urban development, 30 %

under agricultural use and 1 % left under other urban uses (figure 2.1).

• Residential
• Recreational
o Institutional
o Industrial
0.40%
• Corrmercial
3.50% • Agricultural

11.00%

Fig. 2.1: Distribution of Land use in Nairobi Watershed

2.1.2 Urbanization

The evaluation, overview and classification of the significance of hydrologic regimen

 16

showed that hydrology of urban areas is quite complex (pereira, 1973). In developed

as well developing countries, urban growth; particularly the expansion of existing

towns and springing up of new ones was inevitable due to the ever-increasing

population (Packman, 1979). Urban development has effects on the physical

environment; it is accompanied by increased imperviousness introduced through

construction of roads, roofs and other amenities, such as parking lots that transforms

the existing regime. Increased water use has had implications on the water supply

sourcesand on the wastewater disposal in urban systems (Ondieki, 1999).

Continued growth and concentration of population and industry in urban and

suburban areas in recent decades caused a complex merging of social, economic and

physical problems (Adede, 1988). The interrelationship of man, his use of land,

development of land and water resources is of particular significance to urban

development. There has been relatively little study to date on the effects of the urban

man upon natural hydrologic conditions (Savini and Kemmerer, 1961). Cities

expenence low ground water levels, accelerated land erosion, increased stream

sediment and aggradation, overload of sewers, and increased local stream flow, flood

damage, decreased infiltration, waste and water use (May and Rinks, 1988). On

January 13th 2001, floods in Nairobi killed four people in different parts of the city.

On January is" 2001, serious flooding brought Nairobi to a stand still, where Roads

became impassable; the streams which flow through the city became brown, swirling

with flood water as the open drains overflowed (plate 2.1).

 17

Plate2.1 Flooded ale Shapara Avenue in Nairobi South C (January is" 2001)
(Jenkins, 2001).

Among the worst affected areas were the sprawling slum areas, which surround the

city (Jenkins, 2001). According to Ark (2002), in South C an up-market estate in

Nairobi, most residents woke up to flooded estate roads; making it impossible for

most people to leave their compounds and go to work (plate 2.2)

Plate 2.2: A flood in Kitsuru estate in Nairobi May 9th 2002) (Ark, 2002))
 18

On May 5th 2003, floods left Nairobi without piped water. Up to 1 million residents

of the Kenyan capital Nairobi faced water shortages after floods damaged parts of the

Sasumua dam. In some parts of the city, children stopped attending school to help in

looking for water as the city taps went dry (Karobia, 2003). Others withjerrycans and

wheelbarrows went about looking for places to buy water in some parts of airobi,

perhaps from delivery Bowsers or Boreholes (plate, 2.3).

Plate 2.3: Nairobi experiences water shortage after floods (Karobia, May 5th 2003)

Scenarios of city residents getting rain trapped in the estates in the morning arriving at

work late or getting trapped in the offices after work due to flooded streets became

common in Nairobi (Karobia, 2003). The Standard News Paper of May 9th 2006

reported that: "after a heavy storm in Nairobi, floods threaten to destabilize 150,000

city residents". Unusually long traffic jams on the flooded streets became common

phenomena in the city (plate 2.4). Roads became impassable as some sections of the

city were completely cut off for many hours.

 19

Plate2.4: Flooded section of Lusaka Road Industrial area causes a traffic jam

2.2 Hydroclimatological Patterns in Nairobi Sub-catchment

The airobi sub-catchment area has numerous tributaries of the Athi River. The

rivers originate from Kikuyu highlands and gong hills and flow to the south-east

(Kwena, 1998). According to Jones et al (1975), in Nairobi, major storms occur in

two spates, November to December and March to May. They originate from north,

moving east and south across the city. The major storms of the 'long rains' (mid-

March to May) commence in the early evening. There are two basic types of storms

during the rain seasons; one type of storm occurs during the night and early morning,

and the other which starts in the evening. Morning storms which usually start from

OO:50hrsto 11:59hrs are more prolonged and less intense than the evening ones,

which are usually storms starting 12:00hrs to 23:59 hrs) (Charania and Charania

1975). On average, the main storms last for 522 minutes. They have an average fall

of 73rnrn, and a mean hourly intensity of rainfall of 27.7mm/hr (Forsgate and Grigg,

1975). The evening storms last for 187 minutes on average. During this period,
 20

55mm of the rain falls with an average hourly intensity of 41. 1mm/hr. The morning

storms seemed to follow less well defined paths (Jones, 1975).

According to Thompson (1957), the largest and the most intense storm recorded in

this watershed occurred in the evening and approached from the North. Air reversals

associated with the drainage of cold air from Aberdare Mountains made the evening

storms approach the city from North and East (Findlater, 1969). A major low level air

current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer influences the rainfall

patterns inland, making orographical effects in Nairobi important (Ramsey, 1966,

Saha, 1983). In the watershed, nearly 50% of the total rainfall occurred in 10-15% of

the total duration, though sometimes in the past, unique storms had pounded the

watershed non stop for more than 12 hrs. It is understandable that, floods hit Nairobi

every time there is a storm on the watershed area (William, 1988).

Nairobi watershed has a precipitation index of 850mm. The central and eastern

sectors are characterized by low, but effective rainfall depth. Dagoretti Station for

example had an annual rainfall of 1051mm according M.O.W&I in 1998. This

translated to an effective rainfall of 178mm on the basis of 50mm, 100mm and

150mm soil retention capacities. The Potential Evapo- Transpiration (PET) for the

watershed is 1236mm. In the watershed, the river gauging stations are operated by

the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MOW&1) in watershed 3BA, though at present,

most of Stations are vandalized and are no longer functional. Report by MLRR&WD

1998, revealed that Nairobi has a soil permeability coefficient ranging between 3 to

5xlO-6 m/s and an average transmissivity of 5xlO-s m2/s.

 21

According to Marshall (2000), El Nifio and the subsequent heavy rams of 1999

affected the poor populations living in the slums, as some of them were squatters

along the flood plains and landslide prone areas. Businesses were seriously

interrupted or affected due to flooding, transport problems and energy disruption;

Kenyans were not adequately prepared for this and had no facilities in place to

cushion them against the adverse effects. Floods in airobi usually follow the major

drainage patterns of the watershed, over loading the existing drainage ways. As the

storms recede, the natural and artificial drainage ways are eroded and wasted away,

causing land slides and slumps (Wanaanen and Limerinos, 1997). Due to the

consequences of erosion and sedimentation, drainage takes the form of muddy streets,

clogged storm sewers and dirty office corridors (plate 2.5). This leads to an increase

in cleaning costs of streets and offices (UNESCO, 1985).

Plate 2.5: Blocked Culvert on Isiolo Road in Nairobi Industrial area

Zigg, (1940) found out that the rate of erosion increases with the length of the slope.

Further accelerated erosion occurs at the edges of tarmac roads without kerbs. The
 22

big storms experienced in Nairobi were associated with large raindrops, which can

cause dislodgement of sediments on bare surface (Ongwenyi, 1985). These have upto

8 times the erosive capacity of the runoff. Erosion of tarmac roads is literally a "pot

hole" menace that results from poor drainage, allowing water to stand on the roads for

a long time (Plate 2.6). Engineers refer to this problem as "bath-tub" menace as it

makes water not to drain off fast (Krhoda, 1986).

Plate 2 .6: A flooded Selassie Avenue in Nairobi Central Business District

2.3 Impact of Gardening

Urban Agriculture exists throughout Nairobi city on both private and public land.

Growing of crops in urban areas is an important survival strategy for the urban poor

(especially those without rural land holdings) as this reduces the amount of income

expended on food. The Legal status of urban agriculture remains unclear to date.

Urban cultivators have a way of composting waste in the city for their agricultural
 23

use, the composting efforts have a negative impact on flooding in the city; because

when it rains, the footpaths become muddy (Peters,1998). The two types of gardening

practiced in Nairobi are:

(i) Flower beds along the city streets.

(ii) Riverine gardens planted with maize, potatoes, beans and nurseries.

In both cases, the soils are left bare and then later transported to the pavement and

rivers during rainstorms. Urban watersheds contribute 30 times more sediments than

natural watersheds (Chen, 1974). McPherson (1977) found out that, runoff from

unpaved areas to the road pavements has made sediment contribution more acute,

increasing the problem of flooding.

2.4 Drainage Systems in Nairobi watershed area

According to Krhoda (1986), there are two types of drainage systems in Nairobi

watershed, namely; the natural and artificial channels. The natural channels include;

Nairobi, Gitathuru and Mathare Rivers and their tributaries. The headwaters of these

rivers are in the Uplands area of Limuru. The major artificial channels include, the

canalized branch of Mathare River extending from Loresho to City Park. Another one

runs from Kilimani via Uhuru Park, Railway Club and Golf course joining the Ngong

River near the Dunga road bridge, before Matermisericodiae Hospital. These add to

the numerous lined and unlined storm drains within the city. Diniz and Moore (1974)

discussed the sequence of changes in sediment yield and channel stability as most

urban land becomes developed.

 24

2.4.1 The Existing Drainage Network in Nairobi Watershed

Nairobi watershed has both natural and artificial drainage network. Krhoda (1986)

observed that, most of the catch pits on the road and the Kerb gratings had not been

serviced for a long time (plates 2.7). Garbage swept from the street is usually

deposited into these catchpits. This has led to serious drain blockages, which turns

the streets into shallow open channels whenever there is a storm. The maintenance of

these drainage appurtenances is a rare thing.

Plate 2 . 7: A blocked Catchpit on Haile Selassie Avenue in Nairobi

In some of the cases, drainage inlet gratings had been covered by grass and other

growths of vegetation. This is a common scene in Nairobi and some of the major

towns in Kenya, whose drainage systems seemed, neglected and lacked regular

maintenance (plate 2.8).

 25

Plate 2.8: A grassed Kerb grating on Workshop road in the Nairobi

2.5 Role of Mass Wasting in Urban Flooding

The surficial geology of Nairobi includes volcanic ejecta, alluvium and fills that are

moderately prone to mass movement. It is well known that sedimentation in urban

areas aggravates the magnitude of flooding. Increased flood risks arise from soiled

streams and drainage ways, clogged storm inlets and blocked drains that are as a

result of mass movement (Senga, 1983). Cases of solid waste dumping are also

common in the streets of Nairobi. This has narrowed of some streets due to piling up

of solid waste, culminating in blockage of the existing drainage facilities (plate 2.9).
 26

Plate 2.9: Waste Dump on Commercial Street in Nairobi Industrial area

From field investigations (plate 2.10), it was noted that; some of the slum

constructions had encroached the reserved space on the roads and major streets which

were meant for drainage. These slums have no proper drainage and sanitation

facilities; any time there is a storm, garbage is washed to the streets creating filthy and

unaesthetic conditions which are unbearable to both motorists and pedestrians. This

also exacerbates flooding in the slums.

Road section gettingflooded due to slum encroachment

Plate2.10: Nairobi Kwa Reuben Slum under Flood Threat

 27

2.6 Flood Estimation Methods

An abnormal quantity of water arising from heavy rainfall causing channels or rivers

to overflow their banks, inundating low lying areas is considered a flood (Reddi,

1992). Several methods are used for flood estimation. Some of the methods used for

flood estimation in Kenya include; Empirical methods, indirect methods, Statistical

methods, Rainfall-runoff processes, Catchment model methods and the Transport

Road Research Laboratory (TRRL) method. Rainfall-runoff processes are more

sophisticated among these methods, and it requires a lot of data, such as; standard rain

gauge data, continuous rainfall data, intensity-frequency duration data and temporal

patterns of rainfall (MOWD, 1975). For flood studies, precipitation data is required

since rainfall variability in space and time should be considered. The Transport Road

Research Laboratory method of flood estimation can be used where the volumetric

rainfall input to a catchment can be estimated from point rainfall, multiplied by an

Area Reduction Factor (ARP) to allow for partial variability.

According to Kenrail consultants (1998), flood prediction models can be used for

flood estimation in Nairobi. Kenya Railway Corporation has used some of these

models for design of cross-drainage works. These models include:

(i) TRRL model (for East African Flood studies).

(ii) Richard's or the Rational Method

(iii) Kenya Railways' Method

(iv) Transport Road Research Laboratories Method

Both the TRRL and Kenya Railway methods use the Area Reduction Factor (ARP).

For the entire country, ARP was based on Nairobi rain gauge stations network
 28

covering 1200 km2 (Fiddes, 1977). According to WMO (1969), the (ARF) equation

suitable for Nairobi watershed which has both humid and semi arid-climatic

conditions with orographic influences may be expressed as:

I I

ARF=I-0.02T 3A2 (1)

Where

T = Duration in hours

A = Area in km2

All these methods can be applied in the Nairobi watershed for flood studies, but

limitations exist due to their demand for certain catchment descriptors which are not

easy to establish. The four methods used by Kenya Railways can be employed

effectively for flood estimation, but only under certain conditions.

2.7 Flood Frequency Studies

Flood frequency studies relate magnitudes of discharge, stage or volume to the

probability of occurrence or exceedance. The resulting flood-frequency functions

provide information required for:

(a) Evaluating the economic benefits of flood-damage reduction projects.

(b) Sizing and designing water control measures, if target exceedance level or

reliability is specified.

(c) Establish reservoir operation criteria and reporting performance success.

(d) Establish flood plain management regulations

(e) Developing requirements for regulating local land use.

To meet the objectives of a flood frequency study, peak flows, stages and volumes for

specified annual exceedance probabilities are required. The flow and stage frequency
 29

curves are often used for flood-damage calculations. Flow volumes are used for

sizing flood control structures such as detention ponds (USACE, 1992).

2.7.1Flood Frequency

Frequency analysis made use of observed data in the past in order to predict future

flood events and their probabilities or return periods. Adequate and accurate data

must be used if frequency analysis is to provide useful answers. Flood data may

consist of either annual series or partial duration series. The choice depends on the

purpose of study (Reddi, 1992).

Hydrologic systems are sometimes impacted on by extreme events, such as severe

storms, floods and droughts. The magnitude of an extreme event is inversely related

to its frequency of occurrence, but very severe events occur less frequently than the

more moderate events. The objective of hydrologic data frequency analysis is to

relate the magnitudes of extreme events to their frequency of occurrence through the

use of probability distributions. Hydrologic data analyzed is assumed to be

independent and identically distributed. The hydrologic system producing them is

considered to be stochastic (e.g. a storm rainfall system), space and time-independent

(Parodi, 2005).

2.7.2 The Gumbel Extreme Value distribution type! (EVI)

Three models commonly used for extreme value analysis are Gumbel, Frechet and

Weibull distribution functions. Cunane in (1978) concluded that, Weibull plotting

 30

formula is biased and plots the largest values of a sample at too small a return period.

Gumbel is easier to work with since it requires only location and scale parameters,

while Weibull and Frechet functions require location, scale and shape parameters

(Coldwell, 2002). Gumbel distribution is one of the most widely employed

distributions to describe extreme flood data (Linsley and Kohler, 1988).

From observed or simulated rainfall data, when valid watershed models are applied,

flood frequencies can be estimated, according to Baker, (1988). Using the Gumbel

extreme value type I, the general formula for probability density function of the

Gumbel (maximum) distribution is given by:

x-p x-}J

P
f(x) = ~e-P e-e-- (2)

Where /l is the location parameter and fJ is the scale parameter.

This is such that, when /l = 0 and fJ = 1, it is called the standard Gumbel

distribution. From this, the standard Gumbel distribution (maximum) reduces to:

F (x) = «:«:' (3)

This equation can be used to make a plot of p.d.f for the maximum cases.

The probability that the event can be equaled or exceeded can be obtained from:

P = 1- «:' (4)

Where y is called the reduced variate

A smooth curve of the probability density function (p.d.f) can be obtained if the data

series is imagined to be infinitely large in number and the class intervals are infinitely

small. The area under the probability curve is a unit and is obtained from;

r p(Q)dQ =1 (5)
 31

The probability that an annual maximum flood Q lies between a and b is given by

p = !p(Q)dQ (6)

For any given magnitude, X, it can be shown that an annual maximum event equals or

exceeds X, such that;

Q 2: x is P(X) = r p(Q)dQ area shaded under the curve (7)

If F(X) = r p(Q)dQ (8)

and clearly P(X) = 1- F(X) (9)

P(X) is the probability that annual maximum event equaling or exceeding X in any

given year, since it is the relative proportion of the total number of maxima that have

equaled or exceeded X . If X is equaled or exceeded r times in N years,

r
ThenP(X) =- (10)
N

The return period for X is however, T(X) = N (11)

r

1
Thus P(X) = -- (12)
T(X)

It follows that;

1 1
T(X) = -- = (13)
P(X) 1- F(X)

T(X) -1
and F(X) = (14)
T(X)

In this, F(X) is to be made the ordinate X ; the abscissa.

 32

2.7.3 Peak Flows

Peak flows and their frequencies are used for design and planning in most cases, to

provide solutions to problems related to engineering for peak flow analysis. The

maximum value for each water year is selected and arranged in a decreasing order

(Jekinson, 1968). Using the Gumbel extreme value (type I) approach;

F(X) = exp[- e-b(X-ll)] = T(X) -1 (15)

T(X)

Where F(X) is the probability of the annual maximum Q ~ X as previously defined,

a and b are the two parameters related to the moments of population of Q values.

Defining the first moment (the mean) by JLa and the second moment of variance (}~l '

the parameters a and b are given by the following expressions;

a =!1Q _I.(y-0.S772) (16)

b

1l
b =r=r: (17)
(J"Qv6

and:

!1Q = N:t
1 N
Q; (Sample mean) (18)

1 N 2
o-~= S~ = ~ L (Q, - Q) (Sample variance) (19)
N -1 ;=1

But,

-b(x - a) = In[ -In T~~~~ 1] (20)

This re-arranged expression gives:

 33

1
x =a-blnln [T(X)
T(X)-l 1 (21)

Substituting the parameters a and b with the sample mean Q and standard

deviation S Q then the estimates of X may be obtained from:

x =Q- r':" - Sa:(lnln[ T~i~~J)sQ(22)

=Q- ~ (r+ Inln[ T~i~~ll)sQ= Q + K(T)SQ (23)

K (T) is the frequency factor which is a function of T

2.7.4 Standard Error (SE)

The Standard Error (SE) is a measure which would indicate how precise the

prediction is. It gives an idea about reliability and precision of the sample. The

smaller the S.E, the greater the uniformity of sampling distribution hence, the greater

the reliability of the sample. Conversely, the greater the S.E, the greater the difference

between the observed and expected frequencies. In such a situation the unreliability of

the sample is greater (Kite, 1977).

SE(X)
~
= SQr
-L1 + 1.14K(T) + 1.1O(K(T))
2]' (24)
N

Where N is the annual maximum in the sample.

2.7.5 Analysis of an Annual Maximum Series

The peak flows which are usually in m3is are arranged in a decreasing order of
 34

magnitude, with the second column showing the rank position. The probability of

exceedance P(X) is then calculated for each value, X. According to plot position,

there is a formula devised to overcome bias by the fact that; when N is not large, ..!..-
N

is not a good estimator. Among the several formulae in use, the best is owed to

Gringorten (Shaw, 1988). Gringorten's equation gives a very good approximation to

the unbiased mean value of probability associated with a given point by assuming an

extreme value distribution. When using Gringorten's plotting position, no correlation

is considered necessary for data records. From Gringorten's formula,

r -0.44
P(X) = (25)
N+0.12

Where r is the rank, N and X is the total number of data values (table3)

2.7.6 Fitting the Extreme Value Distribution

Peak values are selected for flood records of over 20yrs. The data is usually arranged

in a descending order starting with the highest. Out of this, the return periods and

frequency of occurrence are established. The statistical concept of flood return period

is useful in achieving the least overall cost solution, when the design engineer tries to

balance the cost of a structure designed to pass a calculated flood against the cost of

repairs to the structure, in case the flood exceeds limits of the control structures.

Incase larger structures are required; other factors are taken into account such as the

cost of delay of transport on the major highways and the cost of damage to other

assets. Such an economic analysis results in the adoption of increasing flood return

periods in order to increase structure sizes (Prabhakhar, 1975). According to

M.O.W.D (1975), the most usual figures for economic consideration are:
 35

(a) For waterways of areas up to 0.72m2, 5-10 yr flood is used for small sized

structures.

(b) For waterways of areas of 0.75-lOm2, lOyr floods are used for medium sized

structures.

(c) 25-50 yr floods are used for larger structures.

(d) Over 100 yr flood is used for large bridge structures.

Most of all the artificial and natural water ways in the Nairobi watershed fall within

the stated categories, and so this justifies the use of Gumbel distribution function in

the watershed.

2.8 Flood Hydrograph Generation

Flood hydro graphs are important indicators of biophysical changes in a watershed.

They are necessary in the design of flood control and other watershed management

structures. Flood hydrographs are obtained from streams gauged with automatic

water level recorders. Such instruments are not readily available for most streams in

Kenya, because of the high initial cost and lack of proper maintenance; leading to lack

of flood hydrographs. Data for flood hydrograph generation is necessary. Without

data, the flood hydrographs cannot be generated (Onyando and Chemelil, 2004).

From the hydro graph, the significant changes taking place in the watershed can be

identified by visual inspection. In general, the volumes of a stream flow at any given

time interval can be obtained by integration between appropriate limits of the

hydrograph equation;

............................................................................................................ (26).
'if = J'Q.dt
J
 36

Where

V = Volume in time interval (t2j,) since discharge cannot be expressed as a well

defined function oft, the integration cannot be performed analytically. Normally, and

to be more realistic, the volume of stream flow may can be obtained by integrating

hydrograph between two successive mid-nights covering that particular day. If the

volume of stream flow is divided by 24 hrs, the average discharge for the day is the

mean daily discharge (Reddi, 1992).

2.9 Modelling

Several approaches have been used in the study of hydrological problems that have

evolved over the years, as evident from proliferating hydrological books and

periodicals (Cunane, 1978). These approaches have so far been diverse and hybrid

such that, it is not possible to distinguish one approach from the other (Singh, 1995).

Numerical modeling is not widespread here in Kenya because of the scarcity and

unreliability of historical data (Onyando and Chemelil, 2004). Fiddes, (1979)

developed a model for predicting floods for design of small hydraulic structures.

Elsewhere in developed countries, modeling is intensive and elaborate with

comprehensive models capable of carrying out distributed hydrologic modelling

(Maidment, 1993; Singh, 1995). Modelling of floods in Nairobi watershed is possible

since the area is covered with some rainfall and stream gauging stations. Modelling

Nairobi floods will provide a tool for better planning and improvement of storm water

management affairs. Reliance on models as a hydrological tool is increasing as

hydrologists examine emerging problems and exploit new data sources (Diskin and
 37

Simon, 1977). Models enable us to study very complex problems and synthesize

different kinds of information. However, model results are only as reliable as the

model assumptions, inputs, and parameter estimates (Sorooshian and Gupta, 1983).

The emphasis here was directed towards simulation of runoff, based on daily rainfall

and stream flow data.

Hydrological modelling refers to the application of models, which relate a known

phenomenon, to something unknown in studying environmental hydrology (Anderson

and Burt, 1985). Models have contributed a lot to research in hydrology and their use

makes planning easy and expedient (Luijten, 1999). Maidment (1993) noted that,

models deal with four distinct areas; namely, pollution control, flood mitigation, flood

control and water utilization. He observed that models can be grouped into surface

water quality models, ground water constituent transport models and surface water

hydrology models. Among other fields of hydrology, models have been used for

pollution control studies and urban drainage studies. James (2003) found out that,

models are selected on basis of their performance, as a good base for better planning

and management decisions. Further to this, availability of data should be given a

major consideration. Data collection is a major setback, especially here in Kenya

owing to inconsistencies due to lack of resources.

2.9.1 IHACRES Model

The lliACRES model emphasizes on modelling identifiable catchment-scale rainfall-

runoff behavior rather than the small-scale hydrological processes by which rainfall

causes streamflow. It is a catchment-scale rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology

 38

for identifying Unit Hydrographs, continuous time series stream modelling,

environmental change-hydrological regime change studies, runoff event modelling,

hydrograph separation and deriving of a Slow Flow Index (SFI), Dynamic Response

Characteristics (DRCs), investigate relationships between DRCs and Physical

Catchment Descriptors(PCDs), hydrometric data Quality Assurance and Quality

Control (QA/QC) (Littlewood et al.,1997). IHACRES model required many years of

continuous stream flow, rainfall data, evapotranspiration, air temperature which for

some unknown reason, data for this study area was not available from the MOW &1

records.

2.9.2 The HEC-HMS Model

The Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is a

Hydrologic Modelling System, a computer code used which models rural and urban

flood hydrology, and calculates hydrologic routing based on input hyetograph and

basin characteristics. The HEC-HMS model is designed to simulate runoff processes

of dendritic watershed systems. The model assumes that, the basin is a very wide

channel. It simulates runoff from precipitation data by taking precipitation as the

known input and runoff as the unknown output. The basin characteristics and runoff

transformation methods are a requirement (USACE, 2000). The HEC-HMS model

for precipitation-runoff simulation has:

(i) Precipitation-specification options which can describe an observed

(historical) precipitation event.

(ii) Loss models which can estimate the volume of runoff, given the precipitation

and other properties of the watershed.

 39

(iii) Hydrologic routing models that can account for overland flow, storage and

energy flux as water moves through a stream channel.

(iv) Direct runoff model that can account for overland flow, storage and energy

losses as water runs off a watershed into the stream channel.

(v) A continuous soil-moisture-accounting model used to simulate the long-term

response of a watershed to wetting and drying.

(vi) An automatic calibration package that can estimate certain model

parameters and initial conditions, given observations of hydro meteorological

conditions. The model provides additional capabilities for distributed

modelling and continuous simulation (USACE, 2000).

Sub-model models used in HEC-HMS to represent the various components of runoff

processes include:

- Runoff computation,

- Direct runoff,

- Base flow and channel flow

These sub-models provide answers to questions of precipitation volume that falls on a

watershed and how much of this infiltrates a pervious surface. They also answer the

question of how much volume of runoff remains on the pervious and impervious

surfaces when the runoff is generated. The choice of the type of model to use depends

on whether the watershed is rural or urban and much more on the soil moisture

accounting method. Other sub-models used for precipitation-runoff processes are:

(a) Initial and constant rate model: This model is an event, lumped,

empirical fitted parameter model. It represents interception and depression

storage within an initial loss. Parameters required for this model are initial

loss and constant loss.

 40

(b) SCS curve number (CN) model: It is an event, lumped, empirical, and

fitted parameter model. This model was developed by USDA soil

conservation service (USDA, 1986). It is the most popular for computing

surface run off for rain fall events. It computes CN by considering the land

type, hydrologic soil group and land management practices of any gi ven

area. The required parameters for this model are initial loss and curve

number.

(c) Gridded SCS (CN): This model is an event, distributed, empirical and

fitted parameter model. The Curve Numbers are specified in a grid cell

file. The parameters required for this model are abstraction ratio, potential

retention and scale factor (HEC, 2001).

(d) Green and Ampt: This is an event, distributed, empirical and fitted

parameter. It is used for modelling infiltration by combining saturated flow

from Darcy's law with requirement of mass conservation (HEC, 2001).

The required parameters are initial loss, volumetric moisture deficit,

wetting front suction and conductivity.

(e) Deficit and constant rate: It is a continuous, lumped, empirical and fitted

parameter model. It uses one layer system with recovery to model

infiltration. The recovery approximates soil column draining, evaporation

and transportation processes. The required parameters for this model are

initial deficit, maximum deficit, loss rate and recovery rates (HEC, 2001).

(f) Gridded SMA: This is a continuous, distributed, empirical, fitted parameter

model. It can be used with Modified Clark (ModClark) transform to specify

a soil moisture accounting unit for each grid cell. The ModClark being a

distributed parameter model in which spatial variability of characteristics

 41

and processes are considered explicitly. Parameter required for this model

is initial storage as a percentage of capacity for each layer (HEC, 2000).

(g) User-specified UH: This is an event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter

model, which allows an exact specification of the empirical relationship

between one unit of excess rain fall and the resulting direct run off. The

only requirement for this model is the unit hydrograph (HEC, 2000)

(h) Clark's UH: It is an event, empirical, fitted parameter model. It represents

translation and attenuation of the excess precipitation as it moves across the

sub-basin of the outlet (HEC, 2001); this model is based on the linear

reservoir model. The traditional wave theory of the kinematic wave friction

between relationship parameter to be constant. The parameters used in this

model includes time of concentration and storage time.

(i) Snyder's UH: It is an event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter model. Its

characteristics are related to watershed characteristics. It uses Clark unit

hydrograph method to compute ordinates. Parameters required are standard

lag and peaking coefficicient (HEC, 2000).

G) SCS UH: This model is event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter model

developed by SCS now Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS,

HEC, 2001).Only one parameter is required; the SCS lag.

(k) ModClark: It is an event, distributed, empirical and fitted parameter model

operating on a grid cell basis. Excess precipitation is lagged in time and

routed through a linear reservoir. Required parameters are; time of

concentration for the entire subbasin, storage coefficient and grid-cell file.

The grid-cell file contains; coordinate information, area and a travel time

index for each cell in the subbasin (HEC, 2001).

 42

(I) Kinematic Wave: It is an event, lumped, conceptual, measured parameter

model. It uses continuity equation and steady uniform flow approximation

of the momentum equation to transform precipitation to flow. Parameters

include length, slope, roughness and percentage of basin area (USACE,

1979). The HEC-HMS models for base flow which simulate slow

subsurface drainage of water from the watershed system into open channels

include:

(i) Constant Monthly: This is a method of base flow simulation. It is an

event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter model that uses a constant rate

base flow at all simulation steps that fall within a particular month. Base

flows are required for all months that fall during a simulation time window.

(ii) Empirical Recession: It is an event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter

model that uses an exponentially declining base flow, developed from

classical base flow separation technique (HEC, 2001).

(iii) Linear Reservoir Model: It is an event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter

Model that computes base flow from ground water storage. It can only be

used in conjunction with the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model.

(iv) Lag Method: It is an event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter that routes

Channel flow with translation and no attenuation (HEC, 2001). Lag time is

the only parameter required.

(v) Modified puIs: This is an event, lumped, empirical, fitted model, which is

based on approximation of continuity equation coupled with an empirical

representation of the momentum equation. Required parameters are storage,

outflow curve, number of sub-reaches and initial condition for all Sub-

Reaches (HEC, 2001).

 43

(vi) Muskingum Model: It is an approximation of continuity equation. It is

an event, lumped, empirical, fitted parameter model, which models storage

as a sum of prism and model storage it requires routing parameters K and X.

Models used in this research work are described in the following sections:

2.9.3 Modelling Runoff Losses

Runoff losses are modelled using the initial and constant loss model. The underlying

concept of the initial and constant rate-loss model is that, the maximum potential rate

of precipitation le' is constant through out an event. Thus if P, is the Mean Annual

Precipitation (MAP) depth during a time interval t to t + M ,the rainfall excess Pe,'

unng t hee imterva I IS

duri . given
. b y P« = {pO;he:.vis;'-'
=I, if!. >!, } . (27)

An initial loss I a is added to the model to represent interception and depression

storage. Interception storage a consequence of absorption of precipitation by surface

cover, including plants in the watershed. Depression storage is a consequence of

depressions in the watershed topography; water is stored in these and eventually

infiltrates or evaporates. This loss occurs prior to the onset of runoff. Until the

accumulated precipitation on the pervious area exceeds the initial volume, no run off

occurs (Stephenson, 1979). Thus the rainfall excess is given by:

P,f£-F)fIP,"21 ifP
,SI&P,"2F,} (28)
P e, { Otherwise
Q

•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Where

Pt = the MAP depth during a time interval t + I::!..t

pet = precipitation excess during a time interval t

 44

Fe = an infiltration constant throughout the rainfall event

p = accumulated precipitation excess at a time t

The model includes one parameter (the constant rate) and one initial condition, the

initial loss). Respectively, these represent physical properties of the watershed soils,

land use and antecedent condition. If the watershed is in a saturated condition, this

value will approach zero. But when the watershed is dry, then la will increase to

represent the maximum precipitation depth which can fall on watershed with no

runoff; but this will depend on the watershed terrain, land use, soil types and soil

treatment. The constant rate loss can be viewed as the ultimate infiltration capacity

(HEC, 2001). Skaggs and Khaleel (1982) published estimates of infiltration rates for

soils as shown in (table 2.1). These values may be used in the absence of any other

information. Since the initial loss rate and the initial condition model parameters

were not measured, their values are best determined by calibration and optimization.

Table 2.1:Infiltration rates for soils after (Skagg and Khaleel, 1982)

Soil group Description Range of loss rate

cm/hr

A Deep sand, deep loess, aggregated silt 0.76-1.14

B Shallow loess, sand loam 0.38-0.76

C Clay loam, Sandy loam, soils low in organic 0.013-0.38

matter content, soils high in clay content

D Soils that swell significantly when wet, 0.00-0.013

heavy plastic clay certain saline soils

 45

2.9.4 Precipitation Methods

Several methods are available for use in the HEC-HMS model when handling

precipitation data in the meteorological model, but only one method can be used on

each new project using this model. These include; user hyetograph, user gauge

weighting, inverse distance gauge weights and standard project storm (HEC, 2000).

2.9.5 Muskingum Flood Routing Model

At the heart of the HEC-HMS routing models are the fundamental equations of open

channel flow; the momentum and continuity equations. The two equations when put

together are known as the St Venant equation or the dynamic wave equations. The

momentum equation accounts for forces that act on the body of water in an open

channel. It equates the sum of gravitational forces, pressure forces, and friction forces

to the product of fluid mass and acceleration. In one-dimensional case, the equation is

expressed as;

dy Vdv Idv
Sf = So ------ (29)
ax gax gat

Where

Sf =Energy slope known as friction slope (dimensionless)

So = Bottom slope (dimensionless)

v = Velocity (m/s)

y =Hydraulic depth (m)

x = Distance along flow path (m)

t = Time (s)
 46

g = Gravitational acceleration (m/s'')

ay = Pressure gradient (dimensionless)

ax

vav
- = C onvective
. acce I·eration (diImenSlOn
. 1ess )
gax

lay = Local acceleration (dimensionless)

gat

The continuity equation accounts for the volume of water on a Reach of an open

channel, including flowing into the Reach, then flowing out of the Reach, and then

stored in the Channel Reach. In the one- dimensional case, considering a unit width,

the equation becomes;

av ay B --q
A -+ VB -+ ay _
ax ax at (30)

B = Water surface width (m)

q = Lateral flow per unit length of the channel (m3/s/m)

Each term in the equation inflow and outflow from, or storage in the reach of the

channel, a lake or a pond or reservoir (Henderson, 1966) describes;

A ay = Prism storage
ax

VB ay = Wedge storage
x

B ay = Rate of rise
at
The momentum and continuity equations are derived from basic principles, and the

assumptions made are;

Velocity is constant

Water surface is horizontal at any cross-section of the channel

 47

All flow is gradually varied with hydrostatic pressure prevailing at all points,

thus vertical acceleration neglected

No lateral or secondary circulation occurs

Channel boundaries are fixed

Erosion and deposition do not alter the shape of a channel cross-section

Water is uniform in density; Manning's and Chezy's equations are used to

describe frictional resistance

Each model in the HEC-HMS for flood routing solves the momentum and

continuity equations. Muskingum routing model uses simple finite difference

approximations of the continuity equation:

( It-l + It ) _ ( Ot-1 +0t ) = ( St ~:t-I ) (31)

2 2

Storage in the reaches is modelled as a sum of the prism storage and wedge

storage. Prism storage is the volume defined by a steady-flow water surface

profile, while the wedge storage is the additional volume under the profile of the

flood wave. During the rising stages of the flood, the wedge storage is positive

and is added to the prism storage. At the falling stages of the flood, the wedge

storage is subtracted from the prism storage. The volume of the prism storage is

the outflow rate 0, multiplied by travel time through the reach, K. Volume

storage is the weighted difference between inflow and outflow, multiplied by

travel time K. On this note, the Muskingum model defines storage as:

St =KOt_KX(It -Ot)=K[XIt +(1-X)Ot]t-1 (32)

Where;

It_1 And t are inflow hydrographs ordinates at times t -1 and t respectively.

0t_1 And O, are outflow hydrographs at times t +Land t respectively

 48

S,_I And S, = storage in the reaches at times t -1 and t respectively

This equation is solved recursively in HEC-HMS by trial and error

K = Travel time of flood wave through routing reach

X = Dimensionless weight (0 ~ X s 0.5)

The quantity XI, + (1- X )0, is a weighted discharge

If the storage in the channel is controlled by downstream conditions, such that

storage and outflow are highly correlated, then X = 0.0 in that case, the equation

L
K =- resolves to S = KO (33)
Vw

When equation (31) is substituted in equation (32) the final equation becomes;

o =( !::.t- 2KX )1 +( !::.t+ 2KX )1 + (2K91- X) - !::.t)o (34)

, 2K(1- X) +!::.t' 2K(l- X) +!::.t ,-1 2K(1- X) +!::.t ,-1

HEC-HMS resolves equation (Xi) recursively to compute ordinates of the outflow

hydrograph, given the inflow hydrograph ordinates (I, for the time t) an initial

condition (0, = 0) and the parameters, K and X (USACE, 1994).

2.9.6 Muskingum-Cunge-8-Point Model

This model accounts for varying conveyance between main channel and over bank

conveyance (Ponce and Yevjevich, 1978). The physical characteristics and the

geometry of a river contribute to its use for flood routing in rivers where down stream

information is not available (HEC, 2001). The model is event, lumped, quasi-

conceptual and a measured parameter model. It simulates a one-dimensional open

channel flow (HEC, 2000).

 49

2.9.7 Flood Mitigation Measures

Flood mitigation can be distinguished from drainage as it embraces the methods of

combating excess water in streams. This is more commonly called flood control in

the United States, while the term flood-damage mitigation had been adopted from the

Australian practice to emphasize that, absolute control over floods is rarely feasible

either physically or economically. For conciseness, the term flood mitigation is used

as a short hand for the longer term f1ood-damage mitigation. This broad definition

encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Man can do little to prevent a

major flood, but may be able to minimize damage to crop and property within the

flood plain of the river (Linsley and Franzini, 1984). Flood control is a relative term

as it is not economical to provide protection for the largest floods that will occur.

Flood control structures can only do that up to their design capacities. Unable to cope

with enormous volumes of water involved. Flood catastrophe brings home the lesson

that, protection from floods is only a relative matter, and that nature demands its toll

from those who occupy flood. According to Linsley and Franzini (1984), the

commonly accepted measures for flood mitigation are:

(i) Confinement of flow within a predetermined channel by levee, flood walls

or closed conduits

(ii) Flood peak reduction by increased velocities resulting from channel

improvement

(iii) Diversion of flood waters through bypasses or floodways to other channels

or even another watershed

(iv) Flood proofing of specific properties

(v) Reduction of flood by land management

 50

(vi) Temporary evacuation of flood threatened areas on the basis of flood

warnings

(vii) Flood plain management

The physical factors of most flooding situations are against the planner who attempts

to provide absolute flood control and talk of adequate protection, only to imply no

more than calculated risk (Hoyt and Langbein, 1955). In hydrologic study, every

possible effort should be made to minimize the uncertainty in flood frequency

estimates. Though rare; the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is sometimes used for

flood control projects. In most cases, this is a rare event and therefore, the Standard

Project Flood (SPF) which is normally 50% of the (PMF) can be used (Linsley and

Franzini, 1984). The damage caused by floods can bring about losses such as;

(a) Direct losses to property, crops, land and can be determined in monetary

terms.

(b) Indirect losses; such as depreciation of property, traffic delays and loss of

income

(c) Intangible losses; not subject to monetary valuation, including community

insecurity, health hazard and loss of life

Since we are dealing with head water flood studies, it can be abit difficult trying to

apply PMF or SPF. The maximum size of a watershed for a head water area is

arbitrarily selected as 2590 Km2 (Shwab et al., 1981).

Nairobi watershed can be classified as a small-area watershed. It can experience a

small-area flood. In most cases, head water floods are typically flash floods of short

duration that occur rather frequently, two times or thrice a year, having duration of

one day or less (Harrold, 1949).

 51

2.9.8 Best Management Practices

The best programme for flood management for a river can be obtained if a master

plan is developed at an early date, and if the programme reserves a considerable

amount of flood plain for a flood channel (Linsley and Franzini, 1984). Flood plain

encroachments initiate a cycle of higher stages which are contributing factors to flood

spread (Hoyt and Langbein, 1955). This ends up with areas which are perceived to be

safe getting inundated when it floods (plate 2.11). Building structures constructed on

the flood plains are normally left with flood marks as water level rises. Development

areas subject to flooding may be slums, and urban renewal might be used to clear the

area and convert it to uses not threatened by flooding. Careful study of each flood

plain will specify recommendation for flood plan management. (ASCE, 1951).

Evacuation and flood proofing are used by property owners. Emergency evacuation

for flood-damage reduction can be used for large catchments, but this proofs difficult

for small drainage areas (Linsley and Franzini, 1984).

Plate 2.11: Receding flood in part of Nairobi River

 52

According to Jackson et al (2006), to be able to manage floods in urban watersheds,

several options are available which include the following:

(i) Buffers, setbacks and easements

(ii) Dry detention basins

(iii) Infiltration devices

(iv) Porous surfaces

(v) Bioswales and Biofilter strips

(vi) Grassed swales

(vii) Constructed wetlands

(viii) Natural and restored wetlands and

(ix) Wet detention basins

These methods have been used with success in some countries. The methods used in

most cases depended so much on the physical characteristics of the watershed area

affected by floods.
 53

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY
3.1 Data Acquisition

From January 2005, the research work on the Nairobi watershed to generate runoff

from rainfall data commenced in earnest. The research problem having been defined;

this led to the decision on the type of data and the method to be used for collection.

Both Secondary and Primary data were found necessary, and therefore collected for

this research. The Secondary and primary data were obtained from the various data

centres and sites in the study area. The Secondary data included; rainfall and stream

flow data and topographical map sheets. Primary data set was required for the

Nairobi River channel geometry, and information on the present conditions of the

artificial and natural drainage in Nairobi watershed. Field survey data was collected

for Nairobi River Channel by direct measurement using a digital-Theodolite (Topcon

type 500 series). Information on the present condition of the drainage system in the

watershed was obtained through questionnaires which were circulated to a selected

number of stakeholders.

Data and information acquired made it possible to expedite on compilation of the data

and its analysis. Other information and data required for this research were obtained

from the Kenya Soil Survey (KSS) Centre, National Agricultural Laboratories (NAL),

Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), Nairobi City Council (NCC), Survey

of Kenya (SoK) and the Ministry of Roads and Public Works (MOR&PW) materials

testing branch.
 54

3.1.1 Secondary Data

This was data earlier collected and stored in the various data centres within the

watershed area; most of it was raw data that had not been processed. The main

secondary data required to develop a rainfall-runoff relationship for flood modelling

in the Nairobi watershed was the daily rainfall. Other supplementary data for this

study included Stream flow, soil type, Soil parameters and topographical map sheets.

All the precipitation data from other stations within the watershed are usually

transferred to Meteorological Department at Dagoretti corner, where they are archived

after verification. For this study, data was obtained for Dagoretti Corner Station,

National Agricultural Laboratories Station (NAL), Muguga Forest Station, Wilson

Airport Station, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport Station (JKIA) and Moi Air

Base Station (MAB). Precipitation data was obtained for a 25 year period; from 1980

to 2004. It had very few missing gaps to be filled. For security reasons and

maintenance, the rain gauge stations in the watershed are located within government

institutional premises. The precipitation gauges were all non-recording stations.

However, their installation was according to World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) standard requirements.

Daily Stream flow data from 1970 to 31 st October 1992 was obtained from the

Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MOW &1) data bank, for 3BA29 Regular Gauging

Station. Nairobi watershed had several Regular Gauging Stations well spread in the

rivers and streams, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MOW &1) has the sole

responsibility of maintaining the stations and storage of data collected in a data bank.
 55

Stream flow data obtained from the ministry had no continuity, as record for most of

the years was missing. A visit to some of the Regular Gauging Stations (RGS) sites

revealed that; most stations had been vandalized and were no longer functional. For

purposes of this study, there was need to have continuous stream flow and rainfall

data for periods not less than 20 years, but this was not possible; especially with the

stream flow data due to the erratic manner in which it was collected and stored. The

stream flow data from MOW &1 was not quite a reflection of the precipitation data

collected in the watershed from 1985 to 2004. Lack of connectivity in the two data

sets called for a lot of caution when using the data. Recorded figures which appeared

to be outright outliers had to be ignored, since they could not tally with the

precipitation data records.

Topographical map sheets for Ngong 14811, Limuru 148/2, Nairobi 148/3 and

Kiambu 148/4 at a scale of 1:50,000 were obtained from Survey of Kenya and used to

create a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). From a raster form, a digitizer cursor was

used to trace spatial features. Contour lines for each map were digitized into Arcinfo.

Lines were built after digitization, cleaned, projected to the Universal Transverse

Mercator (UTM) and then transferred to the ArcView. In the ArcView; using geo-

processing wizard, this formed a single map. An attribute map was created with

contour heights. The map was then interpolated using a value domain and pixel of

30m in size. This created the DEM which was exported to ArcView in Arcinfo

format. The Geographical Information System (GIS) methodology was applied to

delineate the watershed study area map and to specify the location of the regular

gauging station 3BA29 RGS; at the casino roundabout next to Museum Hill, stream

network, rainfall stations and the road network It covered areas to the east, west,
 56

south and north of 3BA29 Regular Gauging Station. Similar results could have been

obtained using the Geospatial Hydrological Modelling System (GeoHMS), which is

an extension of the HEC-HMS model. However, according to Maidment and Djokic

(2000), hydrologic parameters such as initial loss constant, initial flow, Curve

Number, Soil Conservation Service lag time were all estimated on the basis of the

existing limits specified in HEC-HMS model.

3.1.2 Primary Data

This was data collected afresh and for the first time, and thus happens to be original in

character (Kothari, 2003). This research at some point being both descriptive and

explanatory, the primary data had to be obtained through field survey, observations

and by interviewing stakeholders through questionnaires. The field survey was

carried out for the Nairobi River channel using a 'Total Station', which is a Digital

Theodolite (Topcon 500 series). This was to obtain data to facilitate in routing the

flood through the river channel, using the Muskingum-Cunge-8 point method and

assessing the flood stage levels.

A data base was developed to establish the channel geometry, by taking spot levels

along the Nairobi river channel from BA29 RGS to Kariobangi south bridge. The

main purpose of this was to estimate the channel bed slope and geometry of the

channel cross sections. A reconnaissance survey was conducted to see whether

Nairobi River had undergone many geomorphological changes in its course due to

human encroachment. The Manning's roughness coefficient was estimated on the

basis of the existing channel conditions. Initially, seven reaches were selected at
 57

equal intervals of 500m each, starting from RGS 3BA29 to Kariobangi South Bridge,

but difficulties were encountered due to the geomorphological changes on Nairobi

River. This led to selection of the seven reaches at varying lengths, by considering

salient points which can be easy to identify on the ground. The reach selection was

done in the order of; Museum Hill-Globe Cinema Bridge, 700m; Globe Cinema-

Kariokor Bridge, 2150m; Kariokor-Gikomba Bridge, 450m; Gikomba-Bahati Bridge,

725m; Bahati-Kimathi Bridge, 2000m; Kimathi-Uhuru crossing, 1110m; and Uhuru-

Kariobangi South Bridge, 1250m. Among all the reaches selected, the least reach

length measured was 450m, while 2150m was the highest reach length measured. To

obtain the channel cross-section data, measurements were made from the left

overbank to the right overbank of the stream channel using the total station (digital

Theodolite). The digital Theodolite was preferred because it is less mundane,

efficient and accurate in measuring horizontal and vertical distances. It made

collection of field survey data easy and fast. As an integrated instrument, it

accomplished what other instruments cannot; all in one operation. It automatically

computed the reduced levels in the field, cutting down on any office computations.

3.2 Model Selection and Application

Model selection was one of the major tasks in this research; to identify a model that

can simulate urban floods and establish the peak runoff and volumes in a watershed

whose natural drainage system forms a dendritic pattern. The model had to take into

consideration the complex nature of the urban watershed when accounting for

precipitation losses during flooding, and the dynamics of the simulated floods.
 58

3.2.1 Model Seleciion

To carry out the study, two models were considered for possible use; the HEC-HMS

and the IHACRES model. The HMS was developed by HEC of USACE as a

software package to simulate precipitation-runoff from watersheds that are dendritic

(HEC, 2001). The HEC-HMS is an event based model, and it can effectively use only

one year data at a given time. It is a model designed for short duration storms, with

maximum duration being 24 hours (HEC, 2002). It had the advantage of its multi-

tasking windows environment; which makes it a highly intuitive program with a

variety of options for simulating rainfall-runoff processes (Houghlalen, 2006). The

model was designed in a way which made it applicable in a wide range of

geographical areas, to solve various hydrological and water resources problems.

These include; large river basin water supplies and small flooding studies or natural

watershed runoffs. Hydrographs generated by this model can used directly or in

conjunction with other softwares for urban flood damage studies, flow forecasting,

impact of future urbanization, urban drainage, reservoir spillway design, flood

damage reduction, flood plain regulation and systems operation. The HEC-HMS

interface was contained within the Water Management System (WMS), this made it

simple to input data and display the analyzed results. Manually; precipitation and

stream flow data can be entered into the program, or it can be loaded from Data

Storage System (DSS) files previously created (HEC, 2002).

For the HEC-HMS model to be used in rainfall-runoff processes, it required three

model components; a basin component, a meteorological component and control

specifications. Besides being a single storm event or lumped parameter model, it

 59

included other options for modelling rainfall losses, unit hydrograph and channel

routing. Results computed can be viewed from the basin model schematics. This is

unlike the llIACRES model in which data entry is made for several years. It does not

have a Graphical User Interface (GUI) like the HEC-HMS model, which makes data

entry more direct. The IHACRES model considers catchment descriptors which are

only applicable to rural watersheds; therefore, this made the model unsuitable for

modelling urban watersheds which have complex physical and hydrological

characteristics.

3.2.2 Model Application

The HEC-HMS model program was used to simulate precipitation-runoff and the

routing processes for the natural channel. Since a model is a set of equations, relating

something known (model input) and something unknown (model output). The model

provided additional capabilities for distributed modelling and continuous simulation

(USACE, 1998b). For purposes of assessing flood magnitudes in this watershed,

there was need for more information, which was to be used for comparing the

feasibility of any proposed flood mitigation measures. The benefits of the measures

taken may be determined before decisions can be taken to expend funds in

implementing the flood mitigation measures (HEC, 2000).

In the Nairobi watershed, there was need to predict flows, stages, velocity and their

timing in order to provide information required for decision making. In the HEC-

HMS model simulation; usually, the known is precipitation and stream flow, while the

unknown outputs are the stage, flow magnitude and the velocities which keep on
 60

changing at different points of the channel reaches. While Simulating using the

HEC-HMS model, which is a numerical model (computer program), a large set of

other sub-models in the HEC-HMS were also found useful in simulating runoff from

the watershed, routing the flow in the channel and the behaviour of the water-control

structures'; thus predicting flow, stage and timing (Loague and Freeze, 1985).

According to HEC-HMS (2000), simulation methods encountered in this study while

applying the HEC-HMS model were:

(a)User-specified gauge weight for the precipitation

(b) Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (eN) for run off volume

(c) User specified (SCS) unit hydrograph (UH) for direct runoff

(d) Constant rate for the base flow

(e) Muskingum-Cunge-Spoint method for routing the flow through Nairobi River

Channel

(f) Direct/reservoir/detention pond for flood control structure

The runoff volume generated dealt with the question of precipitation volume that

collected on the watershed. The HEC-HMS modelled the precipitation that was

retained on the watershed, and the runoff generated on both pervious and impervious

surfaces of the watershed. Direct runoff; including overland flow and interflow in the

runoff process, described what happened when water infiltrated or had been stored on

the watershed moved over, or just remained beneath the watershed surface. The base

flow simulated the slow subsurface drainage of water from the hydrologic system into

the watershed channels. The channel flow simulated a one-dimensional open channel

flow, thus predicting time series of the down stream flows or discharges and time.
 61

3.2.3 Watershed Runoff Processes

A frame-work was used to exemplify the rainfall-runoff process (figure 3.1). In a

detailed hydrological model, it was always necessary to account for the movement

and storage of water through all components of the system. The HEC-HMS was such

a model. In the rainfall-runoff modelling process, the main boundary condition was

the daily precipitation. It had the necessary components considered in predicting

runoff peaks and volumes as detailed in the framework. Implicitly, the HEC-HMS

omitted any detailed accounting of water movement within the soil, given that; this

was an urban watershed. The near surface flows and overland flows were modelled

as direct runoff into the stream channel. A detailed model of interflow to the

ground water aquifer was represented only as a combined outflow to base flow (HEC,

2000)

Precipitation

Evapo
transpiration

Water body

I
il1filtJralio n

basenow

watershed
discharge

Fig. 3.1: HEC-HMS Runoff Processes (USACE, 2000)

 62

3.2.4 Rainfall-Runoff Process

The HEC-HMS model operated in form of projects. Each project accepted daily

precipitation data collected over a period of one year from January to December, for

365 days. Every annual data input made into a meteorological model, basin model

was considered to be a complete project. It also had control specifications which

constituted a starting time and an ending time; intervals within which data collection

was made. The model exhibits flexibility such that; daily precipitation and stream

flow data for short time durations (in hours and minutes) can be used to study other

short events and run simulations. Also, data collected for short intervals of time in

minutes can be used to conveniently carry out any other study using this model

(Pilgrim and Cordery, 1975).

3.2.4.1Model Components Creation

There were three key components in running the HEC-HMS model; basin model,

meteorological model and control specifications. These were major components

treated as models in every sense of the word 'model'. Through the components, it

was possible to input data in order to create a basin schematic, input precipitation

data, stream flow data and the control specifications. These components immensely

contributed to the initial steps in running the HEC-HMS model.

3.2.4.2Basin Model

From the component's menu, a selection was made for the basin model as a new
 63

menu item in the project definition screen (HEC, 2001). This was applied to create

the Nairobi sub-basin schematic and other attributes linked to the basin model

configuration. The watershed basin model schematic was limited to one sub-basin,

because the study was limited to 3BA watershed. The sub-basin was interconnected to

the rest of the stream Reaches by a junction at 3BA29. From this junction, 7 stream

Reaches were selected from the 3BA29 RGS and terminated at Kariobangi South

Bridge on Outer ring road as the outlet. The outlet point was chosen arbitrarily for

case study, considering the position of the sub-basin model and the reach connections.

From the basin model attributes, other parameters inputs were made into the model.

These included; watershed area, loss rate, initial constant, base flow, SCS lag time,

recession constant, and other parameters related to the physical characteristics of the

stream channel and basin transforms. Each of the attributes was essential in executing

the model runs.

3. 2.4.3 Meteorological Model

The meteorological model was created as one of the main model components. This

facilitated the entry of gauging station identification codes, gauge weights and

precipitation data for all the selected rain gauge stations in the watershed. The rain

gauge stations selected in the Nairobi watershed were; Dagoretti, National

Agricultural Laboratories, Muguga Forest Station, Wilson Airport, Moi Airbase and

Jomo Kenyatta International Airport Stations (JKIA). They were all none recording

stations and their gauge weights added up to 1.0. As a prerequisite for successful

HEC-HMS model run computation, an entry had to be made for an arbitrary recording

rain gauge station from among the non-recording rain gauge stations, even if it never
 64

existed, so that the model can run (HEC, 2001). The recording station was not

supposed to be assigned any gauge weighting, unlike the non-recording gauge

stations. All the data entries made were saved in the model project, for use in

simulation runs.

3.2.4.4 Control Specifications

The e control specifications were the start and ending times. Their choice depended

on when the meteorological events were recorded. They had to be clearly specified

before the model can be configured for simulation. The HEC-HMS model accepts

annual daily or hourly data sets for new projects, starting from 1SI January to 31 SI

December of any year selected. Nairobi watershed had precipitation data for non-

recording stations whose readings were made daily at 08:00hrs, this is after every 24

hours. The Starting time and ending time control specification was from 08:00 hrs-

08:00hrs of the following day. This time interval which is a computation step had to

be included in the model as a control specification. It was a four digit number

specification representing the 24-hour clock. This determines the resolution of model

results computed during a run (HEC, 2001). The model provided an option of

choosing between any time durations, so long as they were within the months of a

particular year for model simulation. For ease of calibration and model run

simulation, the April 1SI to May 31 si dates were chosen. Data record for these months

was continuous, besides falling within the long rain season of the watershed area.
 65

3.2.4.5 Hard Constraints

The Hard constraints were specific calibration constraints used in the HEC-HMS

model. They limited the range each parameter value can be estimated to during

optimization (HEC, 2001). These constraints were chosen after a sensitivity analysis

during model creation and used as a guide during the research, to account for the

many watershed variations within reasonable limits. They preclude variables that

could cause numeric instabilities or errors in the model computations. The parameters

used were all within the specified limits in table 3.1. Through the calibration process,

parameters were adjusted to conform to the field conditions such as;

(a) Initial Loss

(b) Constant Loss Rate

(c) Initial Abstraction

(e) Lag Time

(f) Manning's Number 'n'

Table 3.1 Limits of Hard Constraints used in the Calibration

Model Parameter Minimum Maximum

initial Initial loss Omm 500 mm

Constant rate Constant loss rate o mmlhr 300mmlhr

SCS loss Initial abstraction Omm 500mm

SCS loss Curve Number 1 100mm

SCSUH Lag 0.1 min. 30,000 min.

Kinematic wave Manning's 'n' 0 1

Lag routing Lag Omm 30,000 min.

 66

3.2.4.6 SCS Curve Number (CN) Loss

The SCS Curve Number CN is simple, predictable, and a stable method relying on

only one parameter. It varies as a function of soil group, land use and treatment,

surface conditions and the antecedent moisture conditions. This is a method widely

accepted for use all over the world (Ponce and Hawkins, 1996). The SCS Curve

Number was used in this study to account for precipitation excess as a function of

cumulative precipitation, soil cover, land use and the antecedent moisture based on

(p-Ia)2
the equation: P = (35)
e P-Ia+S

Where;

Pe - accumulated precipitation at a time t;

P - accumulated rainfall depth at a time t;

la - initial abstraction (initial loss)

S - Potential maximum retention, which is a measure of the ability of the watershed

to abstract and retain storm precipitation.

Until the accumulated rainfall exceeds the initial abstraction, the precipitation excess,

and hence the runoff will be zero.

Since I a = 0.2S

Therefore; the cumulative excess at a time t, is given by:

(P-0.2S)2
Pe = .- (36)
P+0.8S

S For maximum retention is related to the catchment characteristics through an

intermediate parameter, the curve number (CN)

25400 - 254CN
S= (37)
CN
 67

CN has a range from 100 (for water bodies) to approximately 30 for permeable soils.

Since Nairobi watershed had a combination of pervious and impervious lands, a

composite CN was found suitable and was a function of; land use, soil type, and the

antecedent moisture in the watershed. This was such that;

IACN
CN composite = I'A , ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• (38)
j

Where;

CNcomposjte - Composite CN used for runoff volume computation with HEC-HMS.

i-An index of watershed subdivision of uniform land use and soil type

CN j = CN For sub-division i

A j = Drainage area of subdivision i

A composite Curve Number for Nairobi watershed was approximated through

calibration, on t~e basis of the amount of development realized over the years and the

present land use changes in the watershed. It was to account for the directly-

connected impervious areas as required in the HEC-HMS model for all the paved

urban areas, residential estate areas as well as the newly graded areas.

3.2.4.7 The SCS UH

This is a model based on averages of UH derived from gauged rainfall and runoff

throughout the USA, at the heart of which is a dimensionless single peaked Unit

Hydrograph (USACE, 2000). It is used to express discharge Q as ratio to the UH

peak discharge Qp for any timet, a fraction oft pk > the time to UH peak.
 68

SCS research suggests that the UH peak and time of UH peak are related by

A
Qp=C- (39)
tp

Where A = is the watershed area (km')

c = Conservation constant (2.08 in SI)

Time to peak is also known as time of rise and is related to the duration of unit of

excess precipitation as:

!1t
'» =-+t lllg .••.••••••••••••••••..••••••..•••••..••.••••••..••••..•••••••.•.••.•.•••••.•••••••••.•••••••..••..••••.••.•.. (40)
2

In which;

M = Excess precipitation duration which is also computation interval in HEC-HMS.

tlag =Time difference between center of mass of rainfall excess and the peak of the

UH. For adequate computational interval in application of the model for this

study.Ar of the ordinates on the rising limb was to be found and tlag estimated from

the calibration.

3.2.5 Model Calibration and Verification

The process of calibration is like turning the knobs again and again until the correct

parameter values are obtained (Singh, 1995). It matches the observed and the

simulated (HEC, 2000). The HEC-HMS model used in this study was calibrated

using part of precipitation and stream flow data for 1981, which was found to be

continuous and portrayed a better connectivity.

 69

3.2.5.1 Model Calibration

In the model calibration, observed hydrometeorological data was used in a systematic

search for parameters that can yield the best of the computed results to match the

observed runoff. This is a search procedure often referred to as optimization (HEC,

2000). Calibration was done automatically using 1st April to 31 st May 1981 data. The

model parameters were selected in such a way that closely simulated the behavior of

the watershed. Two parts of this process were parameter specifications and parameter

estimation. Normally, data for calibration should be in longer sets in order to improve

on parameter estimates (Sorooshian and Gupta, 1983). It is also a requirement that, at

least a data length 20 times the number of parameters to be estimated will be

satisfactory (Gupta and Sorooshian, 1985). Though this was not the case in the

present set up, the only data available was used for this study. The main goal of

calibrating the HEC-HMS model was to identify reasonable parameters that could

yield the best of fit results for the computed and observed hydrographs. Rainfall-

runoff observations were made from the same storm. The runoff time series data

represented all the runoff due to selected rainfall time series data. The rainfall data

aimed at providing adequate spatial coverage of the watershed; this kind of data can

also be used in the methods of computing Mean Annual Probability (MAP). Since the

data available was secondary, the only option was to use it as it was.

The HEC-HMS model computed an index for the goodness-of-fit during calibration.

These indices are called Algorithms, and were included in this model to search for

model parameters that can yield the best value for the objective function. The

algorithms were incorporated in the model and displayed after model execution as:
 70

(a)Sum of Squared Residuals The Sum of Squared Residuals objective function

gives greater weight to large errors and lesser weight to small errors. It is the sum of

the squared difference between observed and computed flow which is defined as;

n 2
Z = I(Qo(t)-Q,.(t») (41)
1=1

Where

Z = the objective function

Qo (t) = observed flow at time t

Q,. (t) = simulated flow at time t

This objective function is evaluated for all times t in the objective time window.

(b) Percent Error in Peak Flow

Percent error quantifies peak as the absolute value of the computed-observed

difference, expressed as a percentage. It does not reflect errors in volume or peak

timing. It is a percentage difference between the observed and the computed peak

flow defined as;

Z = 100 Qo(peak) - Q,.(peak) (42)

Qo(peak)

Where

QO(peak) = Peak discharge of the observed hydrograph

Qs(peak) = Peak discharge for the simulated hydrograph

This method could be a logical choice if the information needed for designing or

planning is limited to peak flow or peak stages. The method can be used to measure

only the goodness-of-fit of the computed-hydrograph to observed peak. It can also be

useful in the case of flood plain management study that will seek to limit development
 71

in the areas subject to inundation, when flow and stage are uniquely related (HEC,

2000).

(c) Peak-Weight Root Mean Square Error

This method is identical to the calibration objective function included in Computer

Program HEC-1 (USACE, 1998). It compares all the ordinates, squared differences,

and it weighs the squared differences. This function is defined as:

~(Q _ QS(I) + QA )
L. 0(1) 2Q
I~ A
Z= - (43)
n

1
QA =- IQo n
(44)
n 1=1

Z = The objective function

Q0(1) = Observed flow at a time t

Q '«1) = Simulated flow at a time t

QA = Average observed flow

The weight assigned to each ordinate was proportional to the magnitude of the

ordinates. Ordinates greater than the mean of the observed hydrograph were assigned

a value greater than 1.00, when the flow was greater than average, and 0.5, when the

flow was smaller than average. The peak observed ordinate were assigned the

maximum weight using this method. According to HEC-HMS (2000), this function is

an implicit measure of comparison of the magnitudes of the flow peaks, volumes and

times of peak of the two hydrographs. It was meant to provide a graphical

comparison that could permit visualization of the model fit to the observations of

hydrologic system.
 72

(d)Sum of Absolute Residuals

This was an objective function which gives an equal weight to both small and large

differences between the observed and computed hydrographs. It was the sum of the

absolute differences between observed and computed flow. The function was defined

as:

n
Z = ~]Qo (t) - Qs (t)I ······ (45)
t=l

Where

Z = the objective function

Qo (t) = the observed flow at a time t

Qs (t) = the simulated flow in time t

3.2.5.2 Model Verification

The results of any calibration process are conditional on several factors such as

calibration data, the objective function and optimization; it is therefore a good

practice to conduct a verification test. Verification tries and detects any biases that

might have crept into the parameter estimates due to imperfections in the calibration

procedure (Duan, 1991). In the Nairobi watershed, verification was carried out using

1st April to 31SI May 1982 data. This data was chosen since it had not been used to

calibrate the model.

3.2.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis

Though search methods were used to estimate the optimal parameter values, they
 73

did not indicate the parameters with the greatest impact on the solution. For this

reason, sensitivity of each parameter with respect to the objective function was

estimated from:

0.995X -1.005X
S= (46)
X

Where

S = sensitivity measure

x = the final parameter value at the end of optimization

Sensitivity analyses are usually conducted using quadratic approximations to the

response surface in the region of the best parameter value (Sorooshian and Arfi,

1982). Generally, sensitivity analysis is used to determine which parameters are

considered to be well determined (sensitive) and which ones are poorly determined

(insensitive) (HEC, 2002). In principle, this requires obtaining an estimation of the

"regional indifference" denoting the amounts by which parameter estimates could be

in error. By analyzing the indifferences in the region, it was possible to determine if

there was any high interdependence. High interdependence could be an indication of

overparmeterization or poor structural formulation of the model 0N anaanen and

Crippen, 1977).

3.2.5.4 Search Methods

The univariate gradient search algorithm was used as a search method in HEC-HMS.

This made successive corrections to parameter estimates, making estimates that

moved towards the parameter that yielded minimum value of the objective function.

It is useful in finding the optimal parameter values. This meant that, if Xk

 74

represented the parameter estimate with objective function f(xk) at iteration k;

search defines a new estimate Xk+l at iteration k+ 1 as

Xk+l =Xk +/).xk (47)

Where

!li
k
= the correction of the parameter throughout all the iterations in calibration, this

is a key component to ensure reasonable identification of parameters that yield the

best fit of Computed to observed Hydrograph. In case of any error, the HEC-HMS

was supposed to change the trial parameters and reiterate. All this depended on the

univariate gradient search algorithm. When this method is used, it evaluates and

adjusts one parameter at a time, while holding the other parameters constant (HEC,

2000).

3.2.5.5 Result Viewing

Simulation runs were executed any time to update the results whenever there was data

or parameter change in any of the model components, or when there was an

adjustment to signify a new scenario. The results were viewed through the basin

model screen. Whenever the schematic basin model was activated in the HEC-HMS

model screen saver after each successful run, this gave options to view a variety of

graphical, tabulated results, summary tables, base flow, channel reach connections

and the time series table (HEC, 2001).

3.3 Flood Magnitudes and Frequencies

These were estimated using the 1981 streamflow data. The 1981 data was used
 75

because it had a continuous record for all the days and months of the year. The

rainfall data was also found to be continuous and the rain gauge stations well

distributed in the watershed area.

3.3.1 Flood Magnitudes

Based on observed data at 3BA29 RGS for 1981 year, a hydrograph was generated

using the discharge component of the HEC-HMS model which uses daily stream flow

and precipitation data for the whole year. From the hydrograph, peaks flows can be

identified for each of the twelve months of the year. According to Jones (1975),

isolated storms which are unseasonal are also experienced in Nairobi watershed area

throughout the year. Further to this, runoff Peaks were determined by projecting the

observed stream flow data for 1981 water year, and by simulating runoff from

precipitation data using the HEC-HMS model. These methods facilitated in obtaining

the magnitudes of the peak discharge values and volumes. After calibration and

verification of the model, different scenarios were simulated to answer the 'what if?'

question. These were to depict the changing trends on the watershed area as a result of

continuous development. Computation runs to determine runoff volume took into

consideration that; precipitation falling on the watershed was intercepted, infiltrated,

stored, evaporated and transpired, and so, removing all these abstractions from

precipitation left us with the rainfall excess to generate the peak runoff and volume.

In the watershed, there was no linkage between the immediate soils overlying the

aquifer below the ground surface, since this was an urban watershed. Ground water

held in the aquifer might have originated far from the area of precipitation. Evapo-

transpiration and infiltration are always treated as losses, but in this study case, the
 76

assumption was that; evaporation and evapotranspiration were quite negligible at that

moment when there was flooding, during a storm.

3.3.2 Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA)

Flood frequencies are estimated by use of observed or simulated rainfall data and

valid watershed models (Parodi, 2005). The statistical concept of flood return period

is useful and economic exercises can be carried out to determine the optimum return

period of floods for various structures. It is usually necessary to balance the net

present values of the proposed large structures against the maintenance cost of smaller

structures. Incase of larger structures being preferred, other factors such as the cost of

delay of transport on major highways and the cost of damage to other assets may have

to be taken into account. Such economic analyses results in the adoption of

increasing flood return period, to increase the structure sizes (Anderson and Burt,

1985).

The Gumbel distribution method was used for frequency analysis of the identified the

extreme values of the peak discharges (Shaw, 1988). Estimation of parameters and

selection of distribution methods becomes unreliable when the observed data is for a

period less than 15 years (Chow et aI., 1988). The primary objective of the frequency

analysis was to; relate the flow magnitudes of the extreme events to the frequency of

occurrence through the use of probability distribution functions. Data observed over

an extended period of time in a river system was analyzed. A Gumbel plot of the

extreme values was made using stream flow data obtained from 3BA29 RGS. This

was applied to determine flood magnitudes with return periods of 2.33; 5; 10; 50; 100;
 77

500 and 1000 years. Though the stream flow data obtained from the Ministry of

Water and Irrigation data bank had so many missing gaps, the data was used as it was,

since only the peak value for each year was required. Through continuous calibration,

the observed stream flow data was made compatible with the observed precipitation

data. To establish the probability and risks of these floods, the following relations

were used and considered to hold true;

(i) Probability of occurrence in any year PL (x) = 1- PR (F) = 1- ~ (48)

T

(ii) Probability that certain event will not occur in n successive years

P; =(1-~)n (49)

(iii)Probability risk that an event will occur at least once in n successive years

R=l-(l- ~ )n (50)

Where

PL = Left sided Probability

PR = Right sided Probability

n = number of years

T = Return period

3.4 Flood Routing

The process of computing travel time and attenuation of a flood wave is referred to as

routing (HEC, 2001). This took into consideration that, there was no local flow into

Nairobi river channel between 3BA29 RGS and the Kariobangi south bridge;
 78

therefore, the unsteady flow in the channel was computed using the combined

momentum and the continuity equation.

3.4.1 Muskingum-Cunge 8-point Routing Method

Muskingum-Cunge 8-point method was used for flood routing along the Nairobi

River channel. Since overbanks existed as established from reconnaissance and the

actual survey, this method was found to be the most suitable for flood routing in this

case. This is primarily due to its advantage that, it is a physically based model and

there was no downstream data available for calibration (USACE, 2000). The

Muskingum-Cunge-8 Point section method uses the same solution techniques as the

Muskingum-Cunge standard section method. However, the channel was described

with eight station coordinates (figure 3.2). Parameters required this included; reach

length, energy slope, Manning's roughness coefficient 'n' for each reach partition and

station-elevation data describing the channel shape.

Left overbank Main Channel Right over bank

Fig 3.2: The Muskingum-Cunge-8 Point Configuration

 79

The Nairobi river channel was divided into left overbank, main channel, and the right

over bank partitions. The Flow was computed separately in each channel partition

(HEC, 2001). At each of the 8 points, measurements were made using a digital

Theodolite to establish the reduced levels. These reduced levels were used in model

simulations and routing. According to Ponce and Yevjevich 1978, the error in

Muskingum-Cunge is less than 5% if

TS.( ;.)' '" 30 (51)

From this condition, the flood wave can spread beyond the river bank limits into the

. TSU
flood plains. The channel slope should be >0.002 and -- o ~ 171 ; (52)
do

These were among the conditions which justified the use of Muskingum-Cunge 8-

point in routing the flood through the Nairobi River channel.

Where;

T = Hydrograph duration

So = Bed slope

u = Reference
0 mean velocity

do = Reference flow depth

g = Gravitational acceleration

The channel properties and parameter values used for M-C-8 routing method; reaches

lengths, energy slopes, and cross section geometry have been estimated from survey

data. According to Barnes (1967), the Manning's roughness parameters were

estimated using the published table of values.

 80

3.4.2 The Flood Wave

Hydrographs were generated through model simulation and projections to establish

the flood magnitudes. The corresponding stage levels determined using the rating

equation. The stage heights made were for estimating the extent of inundation by the

flood wave; either on the left overbank or the right overbank of the stream channel,

depending on the topography. Using the observed stream flow records for 3BA29

RGS, the simulated flows and their gauge heights, a plot was made of the stage-

discharge curve. This enabled the establishment of a rating equation of the form;

Q = aHb •••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••..•••••••••••••••.•.••••••••.•••••••••••.•..•.•••••••••••••••••••..•.•.•...•....•••.. (53)

Where;

Q = The discharge in m 3 / s

a and b are constants obtained from the y-intercept and the gradient of the curve.

H = the stage in metres

According to MOWD (1992), the equation constants keeps on varying from time to

time due to geomorphological changes on the river course; deposition of sediments,

collapsed river banks, erosion and the river capture caused by flood waters in every

rain season.

3.5 Conditions of the present drainage

There were so many changes took place in the Nairobi watershed. Urbanization and

development changes usually affect some of the watershed parameters, resulting to

very drastic changes (SCS, 1986). According to Nderitu (2006), vegetation changes

had a profound effect on water resources and hydrology in Kaiti watershed. Though
 81

this watershed is different from the Nairobi watershed due physical factors and

ecological zoning; conversely, if the meteorological model and the control

specifications remained constant, development changes which affect vegetation cover

and soil texture in the watershed would bring a lot of hydrological changes. Whenever

changes are made on SCS lag time, degree of imperviousness, initial loss, constant

loss rate, initial abstraction and the recession constant through element editor, this in

reality changes the watershed response to precipitation input reflecting the

development that took place in the watershed.

To investigate the conditions of the current drainage network in Nairobi with respect

to storm water management; the main focus was on urban storm drainage, urban land

drainage and highway drainage. Baseline information on the state of the current

drainage system was obtained through the use of questionnaires, to gauge the

perception of the stakeholders on the present drainage conditions in the city.

According to Dixon and Leach (1978), the smallest sample size acceptable in

sampling theory is thirty one, so, thirty five questionnaires were circulated to some of

the key stakeholders in the city. These questionnaires had both structured and open

ended questions. Responses from the questionnaire were analyzed using the Statistical

Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 11.5. This package has the capability to

analyze data which is descriptive and explanatory, by converting the data into the

desired variables (SPSS, 2005). A Digital Camera was used to capture some of the

scenarios to show how the situation of the city drainage system can be; during a

storm. The scenes taken were fro industrial area, Central Business District and some

areas of the upmarket residential estates.

 82

CHAPTER 4

RESUL TS AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1 HEC-HMS Model

Basic concepts were adopted in developing a project in the HEC-HMS model. This

began from a new project file by creating a basin model and meteorological model. In

these models, the control specifications were selected. This was followed by a run

configuration; there after, several trial simulation runs as parameter adjustments were

made. Each trial simulation run was followed by an optimization of the parameters,

and every optimization resulted in an automatic computation run after saving the

changes. Each of the optimized computation runs generated a flow comparison graph,

scatter graph and an objective function graph.

The Basin model created in the basin model file produced the Nairobi sub-basin in a

schematic form. This displayed; the sub-basin, Reaches, Junctions diversions,

Reservoirs, Inlets and Outlets. The sub-basin was connected to the reaches by a

junction created at 3BA29 RGS. From the junction, seven stream reaches were

selected starting from 3BA29 RGS in sequence upto the end of the ih reach at

Kariobangi South Bridge, which is an arbitrary outlet. Reach lengths were measured

from the junction (inlet) at 3BA29 to the outlet junction at the Kariobangi South

Bridge. The reaches were not equal in distance due to river geomorphological

changes caused by erosion, collapsing of river banks, deposition and river capture

from season to season. Salient points were selected for easy identification on the

ground (figure 4.1). The meteorological model had the attributes to analyze the areal
 83

precipitation, fill in missmg gaps usmg the square mverse distance method and

automatically analyze the sensitivity of the data.

" Nairobi sub·basin

//,

B.!Ih.!lti·Kim.!lthi 5

Kim.!lthi·U huru 6

U huru·S, K.!Irib.!lngi 7

Kariob.!lngi s bridge

Fig.4.1: Nairobi Sub-Catchment Basin Model Schematic

4.2 Model Calibration

This was the process oftuming the model knobs repeatedly to match the observed and

the simulated data sets. During calibration, three parameters were found to be the

most sensitive when using the HMS model; SCS lag time, area of the watershed, and

the degree of imperviousness. The SCS lag was the most sensitive of all the

parameters. It affected the outcome of all the computation results and influenced the

shapes of the hydro graphs generated. Though the percentage of imperviousness was a

sensitive parameter; its overall effect on the results and the hydro graph were less,
 84

compared to the SCS lag time. The Curve Number (CN) was chosen on the basis of

the Hydrological Soil Groupings (HSG's), which depicts the physical changes of the

watershed. The watershed had an optimum composite Curve Number value of 89,

because of the existing impervious and pervious conditions. The curve number was

as a result of continuous calibration. It accounted for the antecedent moisture

condition. However, it did not seem to have much effect on the overall calibrated

results. The generation of flow magnitude and the total volumes depended on the

size of the watershed, the degree of imperviousness and the SCS lag time. Through

calibration, an optimum SCS lag time value of 500 hours was established. Whenever

the SCS lag was increased or decreased for each run simulation; this caused a drastic

change on the resultant hydrograph. In all the HEC-HMS model operations, one

parameter at a time should always be dealt with. A computation run should always be

executed to effect changes made on any of the parameters during and after calibration.

140
-- Calibrated
-- Observed
120 --Base flow
--Timestep
100

SO
~
M
g
3 60
0
;:;:

40

20

0
01 11 21 01 11 21 01 11
~r81 MaySl JunSl

•••• I •••: .,,'ro~, su~~ ••,

lalrOIl) River
•....... : Opl I_Z8
TIITo. : 090c: 106. IT :0:1

Fig. 4.2: Calibration Graph Based on (April 151 to May 315) 1981 data
 85

The HEC-HMS model calibration was successfully carried out using the optimized

parameters in table 4.1. According to the hydrograph generated (figure 4.2), the

observed and the simulated flows matched at the optimization location. The vertical

green lines on the output graph denoted the start time and end time of the objective

function. From the hydrograph, it was worth noting that, the existing base flow

significantly diminished at the calibration scale. As urbanization and development

changes continued taking place in the watershed, parameter values will also change

over the time. These parameters when optimized can be used for flood predictions in

the Nairobi watershed. Whenever a parameter adjustment was made, this signified

new changes as a result of development in the watershed.

Table 4.1: Calibration parameters

Parameter Value

Imperviousness 55 %

Curve Number 89

Initial loss 12mm1hr

SCS lag 500 hrs

Initial flow 5 m~/s

Threshold value 20mJ/s

Area 150 km"

Through calibration, a scatter graph in figure 4.3 was produced. This implied that;

there existed a correlation between the simulated and the observed flow data. The

scatter graph in HEC-HMS model terms produced a near 45° line to show that; the

model can neither over predict nor can it under predict floods in the watershed. At the
 86

peak point, the model generated deviation of 0.18, which was a good fit considering

the quality of the data used.

140

120 ·0
~
"....,
100 C!)
..l(! C!)
M
g 80 C!)

~
3
0 o
-e
GI 60 .C!).
1ii
"5
E
(i) 40
C!)
C!l
. . (!J .
20

0
,,$' . C!)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Observed Flow (m3/s )

• IIII r e n I
HEe • e 10 I e Pe 11k BIIS In:
Pun: 0p I 1_28
sub billS

HMS ".1 le r Pell~; Time: 090~I06. 17 :03

Fig.4.3: Scatter graph of simulated and observed hydrographs in 3BA29

The computed results in table 4.2 and 4.3 were indicator of a successful calibration.

This implied that; the full objective of calibration had been achieved. It further

showed that, the most reasonable parameters for the watershed at the time when data

was collected had been established. An automatic HEC-HMS optimization option

produced similar results in all the trial runs.

In the scatter graph, the straight line indicated the equality of the computed and the

observed flows. If all the plotted points fell above the near 45° equality line; the
 87

model could have been biased; implying that, it was going be an over predicting

model. Similarly, if all the points plotted fell below the near 45° straight line; the

model should consistently be an under predicting model. If the entire points plotted

fell in equal numbers above or below the near 45° straight line as it was the case; this

was an indicator that the model was no more likely to over predict than under predict.

The spread of the points also indicated that; the modelled and the observed flow data

matched well, such that, random errors in flow predictions were not going to be large

relative to the calibrated flow. This meant that; the parameters chosen were suitable

for the model.

Table 4.2: Modelled Results after calibration

Computed Hydrograph Results at gage 3BA29

Peak discharge (rrr'rs) 136.18

Total precipitation 2254.8 mm

Total precipitation loss 12mm

Total precipitation excess 2242.7 mm

j
Total direct runoff (m 'zs) 317858 x lO

Total base flow (m 'zs) 220.4

Total discharge (m 'zday) 318079 x 10.1

Table 4.3: Observed Results after calibration

Observed Hydrograph at gage 3BA29

Peak discharge (rrr'zs) 136.56

Average residual (m 'zs) 9.19

Total residual (rrr'zs) 18993 x lO j

Total observed discharge (mol/day) 294662 x 10.1

 88

The residual graph was an indicator of the behavior of the residual flow at the

optimization location, for each time step during model calibration (figure 4.4). From

the residual graph, the start time was in April 1st, 1981; while the peak time was in

April zs", 1981. The end time of the objective function was on May 31 st , 1981. The

residual flows computed were as a result of the simulated flow, minus the observed

flow. This graph indicated how prediction errors were distributed throughout the

duration of the simulation. In this case study, majority of the residuals values were

not grouped below zero at the start of the runoff event, but above zero, which was an

indicator of the good choice of the initial loss parameter.

~~Trnn~Trnn~Trnn~~~~OT~rn~TTrn~TTTrrn~Trnn~Trnn~Tn

.
~
Cl'
:
I

30 ..................6' :·'--~~~-S-tal-·t -an-d-r:-n(-j

o-r-op-ti-Ill-i/-at-io-n-''' .
. Cl. ~: -- Peaking point

20 ......................... :. -. -. -..-.-.-.-. -. -..

'--. ..-.-.-. -. -'
-.-.-.-. -. -. - .
Cl : Cl
~ 10 (!)' :. '~~"""""""""""""""""

jij . .:~. ~ Cl~ .

~ 0~----~~------~~-------1~~~~~~~~~~------~
~ Cl
-1 0 ~~ : c;!J : : : : : : .
''''131 ~ 1

~ Q:i :
-20 ..... ~ I .
1
1
1
-30fTTrnn~Trnn~Trnn~~Tn~OT~rn~TTrn~TTTrrn~Trnn~Trrn~oh
01 11 21 01 11 21 01 11
Ap~1 May81 Jun81

lasln: • .s 1 rob 1 sub b .ss

HEC Cl o
Simulated Obs e rved Aun: p I 1_28
Hl\'IS TI m. : 090c106. 11 : 03

Fig. 4.4: Residual Graph of Simulated and Observed Hydrographs in 3BA29

The convergence of the model solution was evaluated after several iterations. Each of

the parameter estimations sharply oscillated up and down, until a point was reached

when the parameters were brought to a convergence through the objective function
 89

(figure 4.5). At this point, the parameters started yielding reasonable results. The

implication of this was that; some of the parameters obtained through calibration did

not need any adjustment, either downwards or upwards, otherwise, the results would

signal an error in parameter estimation after every simulation.

MO · -

· -

· -
500 · r-

~O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
o 5 10 15 20
It er.rti on

HEC ."sln: • '" r OD I

itun: oP I ,_) I
HM:S Time: 090 cc 106.

Fig.4.5: The Objective Function graph

The model automatically adapted to univariate gradient as a search method III

parameter optimization. The sum of absolute residuals gave equal weightings to

small or large differences between observed and computed hydro graphs.

4.2.1 Model Verification

The verification of the model was accomplished by generating a flow companson

graph between the simulated and the observed data sets for a similar period from

April 1SI to May 31 S\ 1982 (figure 4.6). It implied that; both the calibration and
 90

verification data were collected under similar conditions. This made the model valid

to simulate flood hazards in the Nairobi watershed, taking into consideration that;

there exists developed and undeveloped areas in the watershed.

~
Q)
150
- Simulated
E -Observed
::s
CJ
100
c:
3:
o
;;:::: 50
E

-
CO
Q)
~
rn
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61
Time in days (1st Apr-31st May)1982

Fig 4.6: Model verification using1982 (April I" to May 31s~ data

In addition to model verification, a scatter plot was made to correlate the simulated

and observed data sets for the same period (figure 4.7). This produced a linear

correlation between the two data sets, with a linear equation Y = 1.0489 X - 2.1323

and a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.82. It implied that; the model calibration

data for 1981 and 1982 verification data were collected under similar condi tions. This

model validation made it useful in simulating flood hazards in the Nairobi urban

watershed, for both developed and undeveloped areas.

 91

140
120
100
80
60
y = 1.0489x - 2.1323
40
20
o
o 50 100 150
Observed flow in C••.•
mecs

Fig.4.7: Correlation between observed and simulated flows (p-tApril-31.1'tMay) 1982

Though modelling was successful, there was no ruling out errors in some of the

secondary data records obtained. It was noted in some of the cases that; there existed

lack of connectivity between the precipitation and stream flow records.

4.3 Flood Magnitudes and Frequencies

Flood magnitudes and their frequencies were derived from the observed and the

simulated data sets. Due to urbanization and other developments, response to

precipitation inputs and stream flow regimes in the watershed were bound to change

over time. This was reflected in the flood magnitudes and their corresponding stage

levels.

4.3.1 Flood Magnitudes

Observed stream flow data set for 1981 at 3BA29 RGS was used to generate a flow

hydrograph for Nairobi River using the HEC-HMS model (figure 4.8). From the

hydrograph, it was noted that peak flows occurred in the months of April to June. In
 92

this period, the watershed experiences the long rain season. The highest peaks flow

value were noted in the month of May; a trend which continued upto the middle of the

month of June. The same trend continued during the short rain season between the

month of November and December, though for a short period. There were isolated

cases of low peaked flows noted in the month of February. This was due to the

unseasonal storms experienced in the watershed. On average, the flow magnitudes

had a range between 20m3/s and 115m3/s. These flows were characterized by low

stages level that could not exceed a height of 1.5m.

120

110

100

90

80

70
'Ol'

~ 60
~
i;:
50

40

30

20

10

0
Jan Mar May Jul sep Nov Jan Mar

1980 1981

---,...------------------- ------------------
HEC
H\JS [
3BA29 Nai robi river Flow Gage

Fig.4.8: Hydrographfor 1981 Annual Stream Flow Data at RGS 3BA29

Using the HEC-HMS model, two scenanos were selected to depict the future

watershed changes. They were simulated to answer the question of; 'what if? Their

choice was based on the assumption that; land use changes and urbanization

continued taking place in the watershed. This affected the physical characteristics of
 93

the watershed. The results obtained were in form of time series, which expressed

flood magnitudes in cubic metres per second and cumulative volumes in cubic metres

per day.

The precipitation data used for calibration was the same data used to generate flow

magnitudes under urbanized and developed conditions (figure 4.9). In the scenario

where the imperviousness was assumed to have increased to 60 %, the SCS lag time

reduced to 300hrs; with all the other parameters remaining constant, the total

precipitation was 2254.8mm and a precipitation loss of 35.7mm. This reduced the

total precipitation to an excess of 2219.1 mm. When a simulation run was executed; it

generated a hydro graph with a peak flow of 345 m3/s in magnitude (figure 4.10). It

was noted that, the stage level rose abruptly to 6.8m. This flood seemed to take

several days to recede because of the time scale of the precipitation and stream flow

data collected. It seemed to depict a huge flow translation.

1000
-
E
E
800
c: 600

-
-
CtI
e
CtI
0:::
400
200
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61
Time in days(1st April-31st May)1981

Fig. 4.9: Rainfall hyetographfor the long rain season (April-May) 1981
 94

Apr81 May81

02 07 12 17 22 27 02 07 12 17 22 27 01

i~OI!!.!i!!.!!!.!,!!,!!i'!:!!!!:.:,!!!i!:.!!!'!:!"'!I!'.'i
350
-- Baseflow
300 --Observed flow
--Simulated flow
250

~
fOO
..:~ 150
100

50

0 I
01 11 21 01 11 21 01 11

Apr81 May81 Jun81

1_- To t e l crec ot te t Basin' N air 0 b i sub b a sin

HEC Loss
t ion Observed

Be s e t t cw Run. Run 6
H\IS Ne t r cb r sub-basin Time: 010ct06, 17.03

Fig. 4.1 0: A Scenario when the imperviousness is 60%

The total simulated volume was 133453 x 103 (cubic metres per day). This was quite

an increment in runoff, given that the observed peak flow was 136.56 m3/s. In the

outlet at Kariobangi south bridge, the peak flow had reduced to 329 m3 Is. This

translated to a reduction of 3.24 %. This flood was able inundate areas adjacent to the

airobi river banks, considering the rise in stage, and the topography of the adjacent

flood plain areas.

In another simulation, when the imperviousness was increased to 65%, the SCS lag

time reduced to 150hours; with all the other parameters remaining constant, the total

precipitation was 2254.8 mm; since it was from the same storm, the precipitation loss

translated to 15.2mm. This was a reflection of the increased imperviousness. From

this loss, the precipitation excess reduced to 2239.6mm. This generated a peak flood

of 460 m3/s in magnitude (figure 4.11). The stage level rose to 7.68m. Though this
 95

flood took a long time to peak, its magnitude was far much higher than in the previous

one.

Miy81

02 07 12 17 22 27 02 07 12 17 22 27 01

~[l:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::r
-- Baseflow
400
--Observed flow
--Simulated flow
~ 300
I--.-.~~~~_~............J .
(Y)

g
g 200
..::
100

O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~;;~~~~~~~I
01 11 21 01 11 21 01 11

May81 Jun81

b.
HEC .r.Jb I I

H\oIS u. e

Fig. 4.11: A Scenario when imperviousness is 65%

Routed results indicated that the flood reduced by 15m3 Is between the inlet at 3BA29

RGS and the outlet at Kariobangi south bridge. It also implied that; with the current

channel characteristics, a flood wave can sustain a high stage for many hours. The

flood of such a magnitude can spread far into the flood plain and inundate larger areas

along the river course. This may cause a lot of damage to property and infrastructure.

4.3.2 Stage-Discharge relationship

A stage-discharge graph was plotted on the basis on observed and simulated flows. It

drew a relationship between stage levels and the stream flow. The main purpose of

this was to establish a rating curve (figure 4.12). From the rating curve, a rating

equation was derived of the form Q = aHb; where the constants a = 4.43 and b =
 96

2.25. From this information, the rating equation was expressed as Q = 4.43H 2.25. The

equation was used to compute the river stages for the observed and simulated flood

magnitudes. Based on the equation; with a simulated flow of 345 m3/s, the stage level

was 6.8m and when the simulated flow increased to 460m3/s, the river stage rose to

7.68m. From these stage levels, it was evident that; the flood wave would spread far

beyond the overbanks and inundate large areas in the flood plains.

20
•
'E'
--
.£«:.-
10
15

I r 5
o
) 1000 2000 3000 4 ODO
-5
Rood magnitudes in Cumecs

Fig. 4.12: Rating Curve for 3BA29 RGS

From the topographical survey data, some of the lower reaches of the river channel

after 3BA29 RGS had cross-sections whose depth was 4m or less. Unfortunately,

some of the areas are slum settlements areas built along the river channel. It implies

that most structures and properties were not likely to be spared by the floods.

4.3.3 Flood Frequency

The mam objective of the frequency analysis was to relate the magnitude of the

extreme events to their frequency of occurrence using the Gumbel probability

distribution. The assumption made was that; the stream flow data was independent

and identically distributed. Peak annual discharge values for 21 years' record were

used for frequency analysis. This generated 2.33year, 5year, lOyear, 25year,50
 97

year,l00year,250 year and 500year (table 4.4). The significance of these floods

magnitudes and frequencies was how they can be used as design floods. The 10-

25year floods can be used for the design of culverts and open drainage systems.

Table 4.4: Analyzed Stream flow magnitudes and return periods

Return periods in years Flood Magnitudes in nr' Is

2.33 50
5 120
10 220
25 330
50 455
100 510
250 580
500 650

From the Gumbel plot based on peak values identified from the observed data, the

simulated flows of 345m3/s and 460m3/s in magnitude were captured in the frequency

curve (figure 4.13). Their return periods were 25 and 53 years. On the basis of the

frequency analysis, it was established that, Nairobi watershed had a mean annual

flood of 50 m3ts with a return period of 2.33 years. This flood had a 43 % chance of

being equaled or exceeded and a 73 % risk.

~ 800
a 600 +---------- ...•
~------l

.5 400 +-------------~~--------------~
~
;;: 200

l o +---~--~------~~------~------~
o 2 4 6 8
Return Period in years (In)

Fig 4.13: Frequency Curve based on 3BA29 RGS Stream flow data
 98

From the frequency analysis, a 100 year flood of magnitude 510 m3/s was established

with a 1 % chance of being equaled or exceeded. A flood with this return period can

be used for designing large structures like bridges. From the probability curve in

figure 4.14, most of the high magnitude flood events had a very low chance of being

equaled or exceeded. However, these were high risk floods, even though their

recurrence intervals were very long.

0.6
\
.~ 0.5
0.4 .\
~ 0.3 -~-- -------- - --
e 0.2 <,
a. 0.1 ~
~
o
o 200 400 600 800
Flow in Cumecs

Fig.4.14: Probability of Exceedance based on 3BA 29 RGS Data

Within the scope of the probability analysis, flood events lower than the mean flood

of 50m3 Is did not seem to have more than 60 % chance of being equaled or exceeded.

4.4 Flood Routing

Model simulations generated flood high magnitude floods. In the Nairobi River

channel, a flood wave usually turns out to be a cascade of mud and water from one

reach to another. Starting from 3BA29 RGS, 7 reaches of varying lengths were

selected upto Kariobangi south Bridge for routing the flood. Since there were

significant variations in channel properties along the selected reaches; each reach had
 99

to be subdivided and modelled as a series of sub-reaches, with the properties of each

reach defined separately. In order to route the flood wave successfully, the

Muskingum-Cunge-8-point method was used because of the nature of the channel.

The method clearly defined separately each reach length as L). x , Manning's roughness

coefficient n and energy gradients in a standard configuration (appendix 4). The

Manning's roughness coefficient for each reach length was estimated. From 3BA29

RGS, an inflow flood hydro graph of 460 m3/s magnitude was simulated using the

HEC-HMS model (figure 4.15). The flow translated to a stage of 7.68m, which was

established from the rating equation. This was quite a high stage, considering that;

the average depth of the stream channel was less than 4m at most cross-sections,

according to the topographical survey data.

3BA29RGS

400

.--..
300
~
M
g
3
.£ 200

100

o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
01 11 21 01 11 21 01 11

Ap~l May81 Jun81

'of I rulJ I "uti 11 till n

'....
b.u' .•. J

Fig. 4. 15: An inflow Hydrograph generated at the 3BA29 RGS

 100

Recession was expected in the lower reaches of the river channel, to signify that, the

channel had the capacity to store some of the flood waters. However, the out flow

hydrograph of last reach at Kariobangi south bridge did not show any significant

recession (figure 4.16). From the computed results, the peak flow at the outlet had

receded to 445 rrr' Is. This was a reduction of 15 rrr' Is, which was only a translation of

3.3 %. This made it appear like as if there was no remarkable difference between the

inflow and outflow hydrographs, after comparing the hydro graph shapes.

Kariobangi s bridge GJ

400

'--"300
~
M
g
3
~ 200

100

O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
01 11 21 01 11 21 01

May81 Jun81

Fig. 4.16: An outflow Hydrograph at the Kariobangi south bridge

The flood wave seemed to be uniform in shape from the first to the last reach. This

implied that, the river channel in its present state was not capable of attenuating the

floods.
 101

The speed of a flood wave was measured by determining the travel distance from

maps and recording arrival time of wave at specific sites (USGS, 1994). A graph of

travel time against the distance was plotted; which gave the phase speed or the speed

of the wave (figure 4.17). A reciprocal of this slope would translate into velocities at

different reaches. When there are more of permeable alluvial aquifer sediments along

an unlined channel perimeter, the great depth of water table in the alluvial aquifer

produces a slow rate of flood wave travel (Donald, 2003). This was not the case with

Nairobi river channel, since the channel is perennial in nature and the underlying

aquifers must be fully saturated given the nature of the underlying soils.

~ 700
"C
~~--=-~~------------------------,
§ 600 +-----------------------------~~--~
~ 500 +--------------------------~~~----~
~
.5 400 +---------------------~~------------I
E
;:
300
~ 200 +---------~----------------------__4
~ 100 +-~~~=-----------------------------~
~ 0 +---~--.-~----.-----~.---~--~------~
o 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Distance from RGS 3BA29 in (metres)

Fig. 4.17: Phase speed of the routed flood from inlet to the outlet point

From the current shape of the channel bed, the flow wave profiles was expected to

follow an instantaneous changing pattern of the river from the inlet point at 3BA29

RGS to the outlet point at Kariobangi south bridge (figure 4.18). As the flood wave

cascaded from an elevation of 1651m at Museum Hill to an elevation of 1646m at

Kariobangi south bridge, the time taken by the flood wave from inlet point to the

outlet point was computed; since the routing results gave the reach length and the
 102

travel time it took the flood wave at each reach (table 4.5). It implied that the flood

wave took 2 hours 45 minutes from 3BA29 RGS to Kariobangi south bridge, which is

very close to 3 hours. This is enough time for people living in some of the most

vulr.erable areas move out, incase a flood wave is spotted upstream and they are

warned early enough. The basis for installing an early warning system should be the

stage level at the inlet point.

Table 4.5: Flood Routing results from 3BA29 RGS

Nairobi River Reaches !:!.X Lengths (Metres) !:!.{ (Seconds)

Reach 1: Museum hill-Globe Cinema 700 446
Reach 2: Globe Cinema-Kariokor Bridge 2150 2726
Reach 3: Kariokor Bridge-Gikomba Bridge 450 417
Reach 4: Gikomba Bridge-Bahati Bridge 725 757
Reach 5: Bahati Bridge-Kimathi Bridge 2000 2122
Reach 6: Kimathi Bridge-Uhuru Estate 1110 1081
Reach 7: Uhuru Estate-Kariobangi Bridge 1250 2254

The wave transformation was an indicator of the extent the amplitude of the flood

wave decreased over the selected reach lengths as a sign of recession. From 3BA29

RGS to Kariobangi south bridge outlet, the recession seemed to be inconsequential;

even though, the flood wave being monitored in this case had increased by more than

five times the normal river stage. Since the river channel reaches were not engineered;

the flood wave seemed to remain static in magnitude over time

For the Nairobi River channel, a longitudinal profile of stream bed elevation against

distance was plotted based on the stage levels (figure 4.17). The purpose of the profile

was to exemplify the dynamism of the flood wave as it cascaded from the 3BA29
 103

RGS inlet to Kariobangi south bridge outlet. There was no remarkable variation on

the flood wave as noticed from points along the channel during the routing period,

regardless of the flood magnitude. The channel bed slope seemed to vary at certain

points, although the physical shape of the water profile at almost all the points and

cross sections did not seem to reflect these variations.

1670
~...
1660+--~~::::---=""---.;:- -=--=--=--=-=W:.::.a""te"-;Jr
t:-'-ro:;-:fi.:.:..:lle'--;o-;-_
--- River bed profile
~ 1650+-----~~----------
E
.S: 1640+-------'<----",-----------1
c 1630+------~=_-~~-----~
.S!
1ii 1620
~ 1610
W
1600+---.---.-----.-----.-----,
o 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Distance in metres

Fig. 4.18: Nairobi river flood wave profile from 3BA29 RGS to
Kariobangi South

The shape of the wave profile was not enough to define the type of flow in the river

channel under the existing conditions. Measures that can be taken for flood proofing

and flood protection should be also be based on the river stage levels.

4.5 Drainage Conditions

A survey was carried out to establish the conditions of the existing drainage in the

watershed using questionnaires. They were circulated to selected stakeholders

including; the City Council, Gas, Corporate Organizations, Consulting Firms, civil

engmeenng contractors, Government Departments and Individuals, whose

professional background gave them an insight on urban storm drainage and what
 104

happens when it rams. From the circulated of 35 questionnaires, only 22 were

returned with responses. The questionnaire had both structured and open ended

questions (Appendix 7). Focus was directed towards the existing drainage conditions,

urban land drainage, urban storm drainage, highway drainage and factors that affect

the drainage system in the city and the resultant flooding whenever there were

seasonal or an out of season storms. Analyzed results were generated using the SPSS

programme version 11.5 (appendix 8).

Results from the survey revealed that, Nairobi watershed had both artificial and

natural drainage systems. These handled storm water whose origin was the paved,

unpaved and other urban undeveloped lands. Some of the systems which are

combined, separate and partially separate received sewage from predetermined areas,

according to response from 87 % the stakeholders. According to 100% of the

stakeholders, blockage of the city drains was due to lack of maintenance and

conversion of the existing drains into solid waste dumping chutes (figure 4.1).

Open drain filled with Garbage and next to it is a flooded road

Plate 4.1: A flooded section of Jabavu Road at Hurlingham after a storm

 105

The space left on the road side for construction of open drains was occupied by heaps

of solid waste which seemed to originate from the roadside food kiosks constructed

on the reserved space; meant for road side drainage facilities.

Plate 4.2: Garbage heap next to a kiosk on Commercial Street Industrial area

The general perception was that, this was one of the major factors contributing to

flood hazards. Opinion by 100% of the stakeholders was that the existing drainage

system was in a pathetic state. The stakeholders were all of the opinion that, the

current system of drainage was not good; and therefore, measures should be taken to

improve all the drainage facilities. Those improvements according to 95 % Of the

respondents, will increase the efficiency of the current drainage in handling storm

water, but 5 % of those interviewed felt that; the efficiency of the present drainage

system cannot improve unless there is a total overhaul of the entire system.

According to the response from Nairobi City Council, who happened to be charged

with the whole responsibility of operation and maintenance of the drainage facilities
 106

in the city, the current drainage systems were combined, separate or partially separate,

depending on the area being drained. The opinion of 100 % of the respondents was

that, the present system was inadequate to meet the increased drainage needs caused

by urbanization and other development activities in the watershed. According to 95%

of the respondents, enough maintenance was not carried out to desilt the catchpits,

replace broken kerb gratings and remove debris trapped in culverts before and after

the end of each rain season. They felt this contributed immensely to the problem of

flooding often experienced in the city and its surrounding estates, whenever there was

a high intensity storm in the city. Continued sedimentation had made sections of the

city's open drains to become completely filled up with sediments leaving no single

drain to accommodate stormwater. Notably, fast or sheet flows characterize the road

sides where they have created their own flow paths during storms (plate 4.3).

1n the background: an on coming storm in Nairobi

A n arrow showing the kind of existing road side drains in Nairobi

Plate 4.3: Section of Enterprise road with no drainage

 107

According to 86 % of the stakeholders, blocked open drains contributed to water

stagnation, which resulted to overflows on the main section of the road causing a lot

of damage (plate 4.4).

Plate 4.4: An overflowing open ditch on Ngong Road

Garbage swept into the drains reduced their capacity to adequately accommodate

storm water. The end result was road sections; where, road shoulders were worn out

and no enough camber to restrict backflows from the open drains.

Scheduled maintenance programmes have never been put in place according to 73 %

of the respondents. In some cases, open drains leading to the cross drainage works

were overgrown with vegetation which has never been cleared before the rains started

(plate 4.5).
 108

Plate 4.5: A channel on Bunyala Road overgrown with vegetation

The implication of this was a reduction in the economical capacity of the drain such

that; when the rainfall intensity increases, the open channel cannot accommodate the

flow generated. It was unfortunate to note that; most of the urban storm drains existed

in this condition. Regarding the construction of urban storm drainage, 91 % of the

respondents were of the opinion that, the present drainage system had inadequate

capacity and was poorly constructed. They were of the view that; the whole drainage

system should be planned afresh to accommodate the continuous urban development

and other land use changes. The new system planned should cater for some of the

densely populated estates without proper drainage like; Kawangware, Riruta, Satellite

and slums areas which do not have any organized drainage system.

Whenever there is need for removal of excess water from developed and undeveloped

areas in a city, the modem tendencies are to use large closed conduits in lieu of

ditches where possible. The Nairobi City Council and other major stakeholders
 109

through the interview attested to the fact that; open ditches were mostly used as a

quick means of disposing off surface runoff. Response by 96% of the stakeholders

was that; the existing open drainage ditches in the city were not lined with any

impervious materials. The few channels that used to be lined have had the concrete

lining collapsed. This led to reduced depth of the drainage channel and consequent

inundation of adjacent areas during floods. The stakeholder felt there was need to

rehabilitation all the existing open drains in the city to ensure they conformed to the

city's rapid development and expansion. There was lack of proper urban drainage

policy according to 68 % of the stakeholders, a factor which contributed to deposition

of large volumes of debris and sediments into some of the streets by overland flow

(plate, 4.6).

Plate 4.6: Level crossing at Tetra pak on Enterprise road Industrial area

The view of 86.4 % of the respondents was that; to rehabilitate the existing drainage

system, the amount of financial investment required was high, but only 13.6 % of
 110

them were of the opimon that; the amount of financial investment required to

rehabilitate the drainage system was low (figure 4.19).

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Heavy investment Low investment

Fig. 4.19: Level of Investment to Improve Drainage System

Regardless of the cost of rehabilitation; 100 % of the stakeholders were of the opinion

that, rehabilitation of the drainage system should be given a top priority, if the

constant water pools on the carriageways were to be a thing of the past.

Highways occupy long narrow strips of land and therefore pose two drainage

problems; water collecting on the roadway and on the adjacent land slopes if the road

was a cutting. The survey revealed that; the current drainage distribution in the city

constituted of 32 % longitudinal system, which traversed the main streets and

highways; a combined system constituting 28 %, for handling sewage and stormwater

and a tile drain system constituting 5 %, for draining selected marshy areas. In

addition; the city had a separate system contributing to 21 % for storm water and a

partially separate system which accounts for 14 % of the drainage system (figure

4.20). An observation by 86 % of the stakeholders was that; most of the drains were

installed in the 1970s and 1980s before the city reached the current level of growth in

terms of population and infrastructure. This implied they have already been overtaken

by the development changes.

 111

5% 14%
Tile drain

I!!Ipartially separate

o Combined

o Seperate

• Longitudinal drain

Fig. 4.20: Distribution of Highway drainage system in Nairobi

The city's main drainage systems handled a combination of storm and foul water,

according to 60 % of the stakeholders. Even though this may be the case, 59% of the

stakeholders were of the opinion that; the highway drainage facilities that existed

currently were very poorly maintained as witnessed through culverts clogged by

debris and garbage. Some of them felt this was the cause flooding on the city

highways, which resulted to heavy traffic jams, especially where some of roads turned

into open channels during storms in the city (plate 4.7). Some of the vehicles end up

stalling in the middle of the road, making it difficult for other motorists to move.

Plate 4.7: Floods turns Dunga road in Industrial area, into an open channel
 112

Field investigations also revealed that; poor highway drainage provision had so badly

affected some of city roads to the extent that, when it rained, some of the offices and

business premises became inaccessible for several hours (plate 4.8). Solid waste

dumped in the open drains caused blockages and impeded the flow of water for

several hours.

Plate 4.8: An office property off Enterprise road inaccessible due to flooding

According to 95% of the stakeholders; flooded drainage channels created endless

pools on the roads, which is a major source of inconvenience to both motorists and

pedestrians. From observations made by 91 % of the stakeholders; road rehabilitation

programmes undertaken in the city seemed not to include any drainage works

improvement. An opinion by 100 % of the respondents was that; it was not enough to

have smooth roads without proper drainage, because soon or later areas covered by

water pools turned into huge potholes.

 113

CHAPTERS

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusions

The HEC-HMS model can be used to simulate floods in an urban watershed when the

main boundary condition is precipitation. It can be used to predict floods in Nairobi

urban watershed under the existing conditions as well as future conditions. However,

the HEC-HMS model was not able to give the extent the floodwaters can spread into

the flood plains. When urbanization and development in the watershed increased, and

the degree of imperviousness changed from 55% to 60%, this increased the mean

annual flow from 50m3/s to 345m3/s (an over 600% increment in runoff). The 600%

increase in runoff may be too much for the existing drainage infrastructure.

Therefore, drainage improvements are required to accommodate this amount of runoff

to avoid floods.

Frequency analyses established that; Nairobi has a mean annual flood magnitude of

50 m3/s with a return period of 2.33 years. The watershed has a 43 % chance of

experiencing a flood in every 2.33 years. From the same analysis, it was established

that; Nairobi has a 100year flood magnitude of 510 m3/s. This can be used to design

large cross drainage structures like; bridges and culverts. Routing the flood through

the Nairobi river channel showed that, the flood waves cascaded from the inlet to the

outlet; they can take a minimum time of 2 hours and 45 minutes. The floods recede

by 3 % regardless of their magnitudes.

 114

The present drainage system in Nairobi is in a very poor condition as earlier

hypothesized; it has inadequate capacity to accommodate all runoff from roads, roofs

and other paved areas. Maintenance of the system is poor and irregular, a factor that

contributes immensely to the problem of flooding. Besides this, there is total lack of

any form of drainage system in some of the estates. The slums settlements have

encroached the road reserves in some areas. The inhabitants dump solid waste into

the open drains blocking them. This has limited the space reserved for drainage. The

river valleys have become slum settlements; the inhabitants have converted the rivers

into sites for dumping solid waste, reducing space for water. This increases stage

levels, resulting to flooding in these areas.

5.2 Recommendations

The HEC-HMS model should be customized for use in drainage planning and design

in Nairobi City and for other Kenyan Cities having similar flooding problems. The

model should also be used for flood prediction and installation of early warning

systems against floods in urban watersheds. Structural mitigation measures in form of

concrete protection walls should be constructed in the most vulnerable areas along the

River valleys and stream channels. This will prevent the high stage floods from

spreading; protect property and the inhabitants of the slums which are situated in the

flood plains. Besides this, there will be need to create awareness on the importance

of reserving space for water and better solid waste disposal methods, rather than in the

river valleys as a non-structural mitigation measure against floods. The Nairobi river

channel can be improved to increase its hydraulic efficiency to enable it attenuate the

floods. Further research is needed to map out the spread of floodwaters along the
 115

Nairobi River. The HEC-RAS model can be customized at research level for such

purposes.

There will be need to use the 100 year flood magnitude for safe design of culverts and

bridges in the watershed. Also, a combined surface and subsurface drainage to get rid

of the pools that characterize some parts of the City whenever there is a storm in the

watershed. The City Council should come up with a scheduled and regular

maintenance programmes to ensure that, all the catchpits and Storm water gutters are

inspected, desilted and repaired regularly. A concerted effort by all the key

stakeholders should be made to ensure that; open channels are cleared of vegetation,

Burs, Brushes and Snags. Channel lining, straightening and deepening the open

channels may be necessary in some of the areas. All the major stakeholders should

embrace some of the new technologies by installing some of the Best Management

Practices (BMPs) like; Bioswales in river valleys and Bioretention Islands in the

residential estate areas. There will be need to Rehabilitate all the existing drainage

systems and design new ones using the state of the art storm water design models, to

increase drainage capacity and efficiency in order to cope with the present and future

developments in the watershed. The City Council should enact By-laws that

discourage encroachment to Road reserves and interference with the drainage

systems. There is need to install automatic rainfall recorders and automatic stream

gauging stations to avoid the problems arising from lack of real-time data. The

government should treat this as a top priority; for without proper data, no meaningful

research and planning can be accomplished.

 116

Further research should be carried out to establish other factors which are likely to

contribute to flooding in the watershed using Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWATs)

and other geospatial methods to identify areas in the watershed that are most

vulnerable to flooding for protection. There will be need for further research to

establish the runoff contribution from developed and undeveloped areas of the

watershed. Research should be carried out to determine the effects of flooding on

water quality standards in the rivers and boreholes in the watershed.

 117

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pp 241-258.

SCS (1986) urban hydrology for small watersheds, Technical release 55, USDA
Springfield, VA.

Senga, W. (Ed), (1983). Soil and Water Conservation in Kenya. Proceedings of the
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Shaw, E.M. (1983).Development in flood routing practice, Urban Flooding

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 123

Shaw, E.M. (1988) 2nd eds. Extreme value precipitation. In hydrology in practice. Van
Nostrand Reinhold (international) Co. Ltd.

Sikes, H.L., (1939). Notes on the geology of the country surrounding Nairobi.

Singh, V.P. (1995) (Ed.). Computer models of watershed hydrology. Water resources
publication. Colorado. United Nations Environment Programme.

Skaggs, R.W., and Khaleel. (l982).Infiltration, Hydrologic modeling of small

watersheds. American Society of Agricultural Engineers, St Joseph, MI.

Sombroek, W.G, Braun H.M.H and Van der Pouw B.J.A. (1982).Exploratory Soil
map and Agro-climatic zone map of Kenya.

Sorooshian, S. Gupta, V.K. (1983).Automatic calibration of conceptual rainfall-

runoff models: the question of parameter observability and uniqueness, Water
Resources Research, 19(1),251-259, February 1983.

Sorooshian,S.and Arfi, F(1982).Response surface parameter sensitivity analysis

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Stephenson,D.(1979)."Direct optimization of Muskingum routing coefficient"-

Journal of Hydrology, 41,161-165.

Thompson,B.W.(1957)The diurnal variation of precipitation of East

Africa.E.A.Met.Dept.Technical memorundum.No 8.

UNESC0(1985)(Research on urban hydrology). Vol.2. Urban Drainage Design in

India pp (131-150).

USACE (1992).HEC-FFA users manual. Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA

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2006)

USACE (2000).HEC-HMS hydrologic modeling system user's manual. Hydrologic

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USACE (l994).Flood-runoff analysis, EMll 10-2-1417. Office of the chief of

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USDA (1986). Urban hydrology for small watersheds, Technical release 55,
Springfield, VA.
 124

USGS (1994).Water resources data for Colorado water year 1994. Data report 94-1

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Wanaanen, A.O.and Crippen J.R. (1977).Magnitude and frequency of floods in

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Ward, R.C. (1975).2nd (Bd).Urbanization, effects on runoff. Principles of Hydrology.

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Zigg, A.W. (1940). Degree and length of landscape as it affects soil loss in runoff.
Agricultural Engineering journal 2:59
 125

APPENDICES

Appendix 1: Meteorological Model precipitation details

Meteorological model Daily point rainfall

Description Gauge weights for Thiessen polygon
Total storm gauge weight Ratios adding to 1.0
Dagoretti 0.175
NAL 0.355
Wilson Airport 0.125
Muguga 0.26
Moi Airbase 0.05
JKIA 0.035
NAL(R) 0.00
 126

• Appendix 2: Flood Magnitudes for simulated and observed flows in m3/s

Simulated Observed
1175 920
778 720
670 650
580 545.25
250 245.19
245 240.88
147 146.35
136.18 122.15
112 111.66
111.45 110.23
104.67 104.23
100 97.5
92.89 87.92
78.54 76.75
67 ..26 65.89
55 51.35
52 49.32
48 46.21
25.43 20.55
21.98 19.02
19.75 17.25
17.43 16.5
12.56 12.38
10..22 9.7
 127

Appendix 3: Stage-Discharge relationship data

Q H Log Q Log H
920 10.46 2.9638 1.0195
720 9.39 2.8573 0.9723
650 8.98 2.8129 0.9533
545.25 8.84 2.7366 0.9284
245.19 5.84 2.3895 0.7664
240.88 5.8 2.3818 0.7634
146.35 4.66 2.1654 0.6684
122.15 4.3 2.0869 0.6335
111.66 4.13 2.0479 0.616
110.23 4.11 2.0423 0.6138
104.23 4.01 2.018 0.6031
97.5 3.9 1.989 0.5911
87.92 3.72 1.9441 ·0.5705
76.75 3.5 1.8851 0.5441
65.89 3.28 1.8188 0.5159
51.35 2.94 1.7105 0.4684
49.32 2.9 1.693 0.4624
46.21 2.8 1.6647 0.4472
20.55 1.96 1.3128 0.2923
19.02 1.9 1.2792 0.2788
17.25 1.82 1.2368 0.2601
16.5 1.78 1.2175 0.2504
12.38 1.57 1.0927 0.1959
9.7 1.42 0.9943 0.1523
 128

•Appendix 4: Muskingum-Cunge-8 point Routing data

Station L- olbank R-olbank Center Distance Energy Reach

(n) (n) (n) /). x (metres) slope (i)

0
0.3
1.5
2.3 0.65 0.65 0.5 0 0.01 0
8.3 (3BA29 RGS)
13.3
14.3
18.3
0
1.5
2.3
6.3
11.3 0.65 0.65 0.5 700 0.002 1
13.1·
14.6
14.9

0
1.5
3.0
4.5 0.65 0.65 0.5 2150 0.01 2
6.0
7.0
10.0
12.5
0
1.5
4.0
7.5
9.5 0.65 0.65 0.5 450 0.01 3
13.0
14.5
16.0

0
0.5
0.9
3.4
5.4 0.65 0.65 0.5 2000 0.01 5
7.4
7.9
8.6
0
0.8
2.3
5.3
 129

7.8 0.65 0.65 0.5 1110 0.01 6

8.8
11.8
12.8

0
0.85
2.6
5.1 0.65 0.65 0.5 1250 0.002 7
8.0
8.7
12
12.9
 130

Appendix 5

Peak annual discharges

Discharge X (Q) Rank(r) Return frequency F(X) Probability P(X)

period T(X) Yrs

m3 / s

545.25 I 37.04 0.973 0.027

245.17 2 13.51 0.926 0.074

240.89 3 8.27 0.879 0.121

146.35 4 5.99 0.833 0.167

122.15 5 4.63 0.784 0.216

111.65 6 3.80 0.737 0.263

110.24 7 3.21 0.689 0.311

104.21 8 2.79 0.642 0.358

97.49 9 2.47 0.595 0.405

87.93 10 2.21 0.548 0.453

76.75 11 2.00 0.500 0.500

65.89 12 1.83 0.454 0.547

51.34 13 1.68 0.405 0.595

49.32 14 1.56 0.359 0.642

46.21 15 1.45 0.310 0.689

20.55 16 1.34 0.254 0.747

19.02 17 1.28 0.219 0.784

17.25 18 1.20 0.167 0.831

16.5 19 1.14 0.123 0.879

12.38 20 1.08 0.074 0.926

9.87 21 1.03 0.026 0.974

.u = 104.591
 131

Appendix 6: HEC-HMS Application procedure

-A new project is started using the HEC-HMS program.

-From components; create basin model, meteorological model and control

specifications.

-create gauge data

-Enter basin model data

-Enter meteorological model data

-Enter control specifications for start date and time and stop date and time.

-create and execute a run (application of the program)

-View the results.

-Exit the program.

Incase of optimization:

-Move to tools

-Go to optimization manager

-optimize then apply

-save

-Save option gives an automatic run

-View results; flow comparison graph, scatter graph, residual graph and objective

Function graph
 131

Appendix 6: HEC-HMS Application procedure

-A new project is started using the HEC-HMS program.

-From components; create basin model, meteorological model and control

specifications.

-create gauge data

-Enter basin model data

-Enter meteorological model data

-Enter control specifications for start date and time and stop date and time.

-create and execute a run (application of the program)

-View the results.

-Exit the program.

Incase of optimization:

-Move to tools

-Go to optimization manager

-optimize then apply

-save

-Save option gives an automatic run

-View results; flow comparison graph, scatter graph, residual graph and objective

Function graph
 132

Appendix 7: Questionnaire (sample)

EXAMINING THE CONDITIONS OF THE PRESENT DRAINAGE

NETWORK IN NAIROBI

Questionnaire No .

Date .

ORGANIZATION .

Name (optional) .

Sex: male/female

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

1 Existing drainage network

(a) What type of drainage systems is found in Nairobi?

(i) Artificial

(ii) Natural

(iii) Both artificial and Natural

(b) What type of flow do they handle?

(i) Storm water

(ii) Sewage

(iii) Combined

(c) What could be the possible origin of these waters?

(i) Paved areas

(ii) Unpaved areas

(iii) Undeveloped urban lands.

Give any other answer. .

(e) Does the storm water contribute to natural hazards like floods, blockage of pipes

or any other hazard?

 133

(i) Yes

(ii)) No

Please explain the reason for your answer .

(f) Is the drainage system efficient in handling the above hazard? Explain .

(g) What is your overall opinion of the existing drainage network?

(i) Good

(ii) Moderate

(iii) Poor

(iv) Very poor

Please comment on the choice of your answer. .

(h) Do you suggest any form of improvement on the drainage system?

(i) Yes

(ii) No.

(i) If the answer is 'Yes' please suggest the kind of improvement you would like to

see .

(j) Will this improvement increase the efficiency of the current 'System? Please

comment. .

2 Drainage activities

Generally these may involve the following:

Urban storm drainage, urban land drainage and Highway drainage.

2.1 Urban storm drainage

(a)What type of drainage system is installed for Nairobi?

(i) Separate system

 134

(ii) Partially separate system

(iii) Combined system

(iv) None

(b) Does the system have any problems of the conveyance during and after storms?

(i)Yes

(ii) No

(c) If the answer is 'Yes' what would you attribute this to? Please explain .

(d) What measures would suggestions to ameliorate this situation?

(e) Is this system adequate for the present urban setup?

(i) Yes

(ii) No

(f) If your answer is 'No' what would you suggest can be done to cater for the future

expansions in city developments? .

(g) Does the system require fresh planning?

(i) Yes

(ii) No

(h)What reasons would you give for your answer? Explain .

Will this address all the inadequacies of the current drainage system ?

3 Urban land drainage

(a) What drainage methods are existing for the urban land areas in Nairobi?

(i) Open ditches

 135

(ii) Under drains

(iii) Tile drain

(iv) Any other

(b) What are the conditions for the method you have chosen?

(i) Poor

(ii) Good

(iii) Any other

(c) Would you please comment on the answer you have chosen? .

(d) Does the method require any improvement? .

(e) What improvement would you suggest? .

(f) Will this increase the efficiency of the system? .

(g) What would you comment on the amount of investment required both material

Investment and financial investment? .

(h)Given that Kenya is a developing country, should urban land drainage be a

priority? Please give comments .

(i) What reasons would you give for the answer you have given? .

U) Could lack of proper urban land drainage be a factor contributing to debris and

sediment deposition in the city streets? Please comment. .

4 Highway drainage

(a) What drainage facilities are there for the city road network?

(i) Longitudinal drainage

 136

(ii) Open drainage

(iii) Cross drainage

(iv) Any other

(b) What would you comment on the effectiveness of the available system?

(i) Very effective

(ii) Effective

(iii) Not effective

(iv) Any other

(c) Please give reasons for the choice of your answer. .

(d) What would you attribute to water which pools on the roadway or on the lands

adjacent to the highway? Please explain

(e) Does this inconvenience the city residents and in any ways? Please comment

(f) What measures would you suggest to be put in place to improve this kind of a

scenario? Please comment. , .

5 Maintenance of the drainage system

(a) Who is responsible for the maintenance of drainage system in the city?

(i) City council

(ii) Ministry of roads and public works

(iii) Ministry of local government

(iv)Any other answer

 137

(b) Does the city have any maintenance program in the calendar of the years?

(i) Yes

(ii) No

(iii) Any other answer

(c) What maintenance schedules are practiced in the city?

(i) Major

(ii) Periodic

(iii) Routine

(d) Please comment on the choice of your answer .

(e) Is the mode of maintenance suggested effective in ensuring that drainage

systems operate efficiently? .

(f) If the answer is no, what measures would you suggest should be installed to

ensure that the system operates more efficiently? .

(g)Will this be adequate to cater for the problem of drainage before and after

every storm? .
 138

Appendix 8: Analyzed Questionnaire results using SPSS 11.5 version

Frequencies

Notes
IOutput Created 24-0CT-200613:15:34

IComments

I Filter I <none>
If-w-e-i-g-ht------I <none>
'Input
ISPlit File 1 <none>
N of Rows in
22
Working Data File

. Missing Value Definition of Missing User-defined missing values are treated as missing .
IHandling Cases Used Statistics are based on all cases with valid data.

FREQUENCIES
VARIABLES=drainsym; orwater; draietf; tlotype;
floharzd; exdra ;impdra; impro;
inceff ;nrbdrtyp problms; procause ;ameliora
;sysadeq; tutuexp; systpl ;reexpan;
curdradq ;urbladra; condra; concom; impmetho;
Syntax
suggimp ;effinc; invest; priodran;
reason ;Iackdra; longdra ;avasyeff ;reas watpools;
inconvin; imprmes; respman;
mainpro; mansched; maincho; main mode; instsmot
;enoistal;
IORDER= ANAL YSIS .
Elapsed Time 0:00:00.08
IResources Total Values Allowed 149796
I

Frequency Table

DRAINSYM

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 1 4.5 4.5 4.5

I
Valid 3.00 21 95.5 95.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

ORWATER

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00
, Valid 3 13.6 13.6 13.6
3.00 1 4.5 4.5 18.2
\
4.00 2 9.1 9.1 27.3
 139

,
12.00 1 4.5 4.5 31.8
,
14.00 1 4.5 4.5 36.4
,
123.00 7 31.8 31.8 68.2
I

1234.00 7 31.8 31.8 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

DRAIEFF

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 21 95.5 95.5 95.5

'Valid 3.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

I
FLOTYPE

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
, 1.00 2 9.1 9.1 9.1
3.00 15 68.2 68.2 77.3
IValid 12.00 4 18.2 18.2 95.5
I
123.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

FLOHARZD
1
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

jvalid 1.00 22 100.0 100.0 100.0

EXDRA

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 4 18.2 18.2 18.2

f

2.00 2 9.1 9.1 27.3

'Valid 3.00 11 50.0 50.0 77.3
,
4.00 5 22.7 22.7 100.0
I Total 22 100.0 100.0

IMPDRA

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 20 90.9 90.9 90.9

,
2.00 1 4.5 4.5 95.5
,Valid
3.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0
ITotal122 1100.0 1100.0
 140

IMPRO
I
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

IValid 1.00 22 100.0 100.0 100.0

INCEFF

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
1.00 21 95.5 95.5 95.5
I
Valid 3.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

NRBDRTYP

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 11 50.0 50.0 50.0

,
2.00 3 13.6 13.6 63.6
,
Valid 3.00 7 31.8 31.8 95.5
,
23.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

I
PROBLMS

I Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I Valid 1.00 22 100.0 100.0 100.0

PROCAUSE

I Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

IValid 1.00 22 100.0 100.0 100.0

AMELlORA

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 21 95.5 95.5 95.5

,
Valid 2.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

SYSADEQ

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
1.00 4 18.2 18.2 18.2
'Valid 2.00 18 81.8 81.8 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

 141

FUTUEXP

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 20 90.9 95.2 95.2

'Valid 2.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
,
Total 21 95.5 100.0

,,Missing System 1 4.5

Total 1100.0

SVSTPL

I
I 1.00
Frequency

20
Percent

90.9
Valid Percent

90.9 90.9
Cumulative Percent

,
2.00 1 4.5 4.5 95.5
,Valid
11.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

REEXPAN

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 20 90.9 90.9 90.9

,
4.00 1 4.5 4.5 95.5
,Valid
12.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

CURDRADQ

! Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
1.00 18 81.8 81.8 81.8
I
12.00 13 113.6 113.6 195.5
I Valid 11-1-23-.-00-1-1----+14-.-5--+1-4-.5----+-11-0-0-.0------

I 1Total 122 1100.0 1100.0 1

URBLADRA

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
1.00 18 81.8 81.8 81.8
!
I
4.00
Valid 112.00 12
1 4.5 4.5 86.4
I
!9.1 !9.1 !95.5
I 1134.0011 14.5 14.5 1100.0
I
Total 122 1100.0 1100.0 1

CONDRA
 142

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 21 95.5 95.5 95.5

,
.Valid 2.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

CONCOM

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid 1.00 21 95.5 100.0 100.0

1 Missing System 1 4.5
'Total 1100.0

IMPMETHO

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

.Valid
, 1.00 21 95.5 100.0 100.0
Missing System 1 4.5
,
_T_o_t_a_I ~1_2_2 1_1_0_0._0
__ ~ ~ _

SUGGIMP

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid 1.00 21 95.5 100.0 100.0

Missing System 1 4.5
j

Total 1100.0

EFFINC

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid 1.00 21 95.5 100.0 100.0

Missing System 1 4.5
Total 22 100.0
I
INVEST

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 20 90.9 95.2 95.2

'Valid 12.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
,
Total 21 95.5 100.0
Missing System 1 4.5
Total 22 100.0

PRIODRAN
 143

,
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 19 86.4 90.5 90.5

,
3.00 1 4.5 4.8 95.2
,Valid
13.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
I
Total 21 95.5 100.0
Missing System 1 4.5
.Total
I
22 100.0 I
REASON
:
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
j
1.00 17 77.3 81.0 81.0
I
3.00 2 9.1 9.5 90.5
'Valid 12.00 1 4.5 4.8 95.2
I
123.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
,
Total 21 95.5 100.0
:Missing
,
'Total
System 1 4.5
I
1100.0

LACKDRA

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

i

1.00 19 86.4 90.5 90.5

,
2.00 1 4.5 4.8 95.2
,Valid
3.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
,
Total 21 95.5 100.0
,Missing
\
Total
System 1 4.5
I
1100.0

LONGDRA

1 Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
1.00 7 31.8 31.8 31.8
,
2.00 2 9.1 9.1 40.9
,
4.00 2 9.1 9.1 50.0
,
12.00 1 4.5 4.5 54.5
,Valid
13.00 1 4.5 4.5 59.1
,
123.00 6 27.3 27.3 86.4
,
1234.00 3 13.6 13.6 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

AVASYEFF
 144

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 6 27.3 27.3 27.3

,
2.00 3 13.6 13.6 40.9
iValid
3.00 13 59.1 59.1 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

REAS

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

I
!

, 1.00 20 90.9 95.2 95.2

I
Valid 13.00 11 4.5 14.8 1100.0

r- I_T_o_ta_I
__ TI2_1 9_5_.5
__ -+1_10_0_._0 1---------------
"M
__is_s_in_g_I'--s_y_s_te_m-+I_1 4_.5 +1 1 _

'Total 122 100.0 1 I

WATPOOLS

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid 1.00 21 95.5 100.0 100.0

Missing System 1 4.5
,
Total 1100.0

INCONVIN

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 20 90.9 95.2 95.2

'Valid
I
4.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
I
1Total 121 195.5 1100.0 1
. Missing System 1 4.5
Total 22 100.0
I
IMPRMES

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

86.4
, 1.00 19 90.5 90.5
I
,Valid
12.00 11 14.5 14.8 195.2
3.00 1 4.5 4.8 100.0
,
Total 21 95.5 100.0
Missing System 1 4.5
!
Total 1100.0

RESPMAN
 145

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 15 68.2 68.2 68.2

I
12.00 3 13.6 13.6 81.8
t
13.00 1 4.5 4.5 86.4
!Valid 15.00 1 4.5 4.5 90.9
I

123.00 1 4.5 4.5 95.5

,
12345.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0

I Total 22 100.0 100.0

MAINPRO

~ency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

,I 1.00 5 22.7 22.7 22.7

I
2.00 7 31.8 31.8 54.5
I
13.00 16 27.3 127.3 181.8
IValid I23.00 1---+---I-----lI'------
1 4.5 4.5 86.4
I 1123.0013 13.6 1-13-.6------l-1-10-0-.0-------'

ITotal 122 100.0 1100.0 I

MANSCHED

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

1.00 6 27.3 27.3 27.3

,
2.00 10 45.5 45.5 72.7
I

3.00 3 13.6 13.6 86.4

,Valid
123.00 2 9.1 9.1 95.5
,
1234.00 1 4.5 4.5 100.0
I
Total 22 100.0 100.0

MAINCHO

I Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid 1.00 22 100.0 100.0 100.0

MAINMODE

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

,
1.00 20 90.9 95.2 95.2
I
Valid 12.00 11 14.5 4.8 100.0
, I Total 121 195.5 100.0
I Missing 1System 1-1----+14-.-5--+-----+--------'

'Total 122 1100.0

 146

INSTSMOT
J
I
r -

I Percent
I Frequency Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid 1.00 21 95.5 100.0 100.0

Missing System 1 4.5
Total 22 100.0
I
ENOISTAL

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

-
Valid 1.00 20
--
90.9 100.0 100.0
I
:Missing I System p__
l 9_.1 t- _-I- Ii- _

Total 122 l100.0 I