Brady Brantley

November 26​th​, 2018

Global Climate Change

Vietnam

Climate Change in Vietnam

Introduction

Vietnam, also known as the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, rests along the

easternmost edge of the Indochina Peninsula. It’s boarded by a multitude of different

countries: Cambodia to the southwest, China to the north, and Laos to the northwest. It

also shares maritime borders with Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The

climate in Vietnam can be divided into a temperate and tropical zone and the

topography of the country is very diverse. Considering the country is located within the

tropics and is directly west of the South China sea, its tropical climate is strongly

influenced by monsoons. In the Northern Section, of the S-shaped country, there are

four distinct seasons. The climate in the northern section is considered a very

subtropical climate and has seen much colder temperatures than that in the southern

section. The winters can get very cold and sometimes, although very rarely, can see

snowfall and frost in the most northern mountainous regions. The lowest recorded

temperature in Vietnam, was found in the capital, Hanoi. Temperatures in 1955 dropped

down to 37​℉ ​(Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism, n.d.). The North sees an

average temperature, during the warmer seasons, of 84℉ (29℃) and an average of 63℉

(17℃) during the cooler and more dry seasons (HolidayWeather.com, n.d.). In the
mountainous regions the average annual rainfall can sometimes exceed 406 cm, while

the non-mountainous regions in the north see an average annual rainfall of 172 cm

(NationsEncyclopedia, Vietnam - Climate, n.d.). In the southern section of Vietnam,

there are essentially two distinguishable seasons. A very rainy season and a very dry

season. The colder season occurs from November to April and the hotter season from

May to October. The south is more tropical and sees annual average temperatures vary

between 64℉ and 91℉. Although in the highland areas, temperatures can be a bit cooler,

dropping down to 63℉ during the dryer season and 68℉ in the warmer/rainy season. The

rainy season in this section of Vietnam runs from the early part of October into the

month of December and sees an average rainfall of 200 cm. Nearly half of the annual

rainfall for the entire country happens during the months of October and November

(NationsEncyclopedia, Vietnam - Climate, n.d.).

The entire country of vietnam covers approximately 127,881 square miles with

approximately 92.6 million citizens inhabiting it. Currently it stands at 15th in the world

and 9th in asian countries, in regards to population size. Ho Chi Minh is the most

populous city in the country and currently has approximately 13 million inhabitants. The

cities population is increasing much faster than expected. According to the Chairman of

the People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh, the population projection for 2025 was 13

million but the city had exceeded 17 million by 2017.

The government of Vietnam is a one party system led by the Communist Party of

Vietnam (CPV). There are three leaders who possess the power in this country. The

first is the current acting president is Dang Thi Ngoc Thinh, who is the first female head
of state of the republic of Vietnam. Second, is the Secretary General of the Communist

Party, Nguyen Phu Trong. He is said to hold the, “True” power in the country. The third

leader is the Prime Minister, ​Nguyen Xuan Phuc. Vietnam has one of south-east Asia’s

fastest growing economies and expects to be included in the list of developing countries

by 2020.

Recent Changes/Impacts

Compared to other developed countries like the United States, there is very little

data on the many aspects of the changing climate in Vietnam. However, data does exist

that suggests that there has been an increase in extreme precipitation during storms

across south-eastern Asian countries. Most of the data that we have for the changing

climate in Vietnam, only dates back to a little more than 50 years ago. According to the

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE): Department of Meteorology,

Hydrology and Climate Change (DMHCC) for

Vietnam, from the years 1958 to 2007, we see

an annual average temperature increase of

.5℃ over the entirety of the country. One thing

that the DMHCC noticed about the

temperature increase was that winter

temperatures were increasing much faster than

those during the summer time. Also, the inland

temperatures increased much faster than

those of coastal and island zones. In the

southern climate zones there has been an increase in annual rainfall, while a

simultaneous decrease in annual rainfall in northern zones. Specifically in the southern

central region, the annual rainfall in both the dry and wet seasons has increased by up

to 20% in the last 50 years. The figure below shows the change in precipitation (%)

during the last 50 years.

[source MONRE (2012a, b)]

As previously mentioned there hasn't been a whole lot of data recorded for climate change in

Vietnam, aside from rainfall. When looking at the change in annual average rainfalls for roughly

the last 100 years, the averages are not consistent with each other. There are certain times

throughout the 100 years where we see ascending and descending periods. And despite the

increase in rainfall in the southern region of the country, in total we are seeing a decrease of

about 2% of average rainfall for the past 50 years (NTP, MONRE, 2008).
 The Hon Dau oceanographical station has tidal gauges placed along the coast of

Vietnam since the early 1990’s. According to these gauges sea level rise has continued at a

rate of 2.8 - 3mm/year, which is comparable with the global tendency. The coastal zones in the

central and southwest regions has seen the strongest sea level rise, at about 2.9mm/year. In

total, over the last 50 years, the sea level has risen roughly 20 cm at this same oceanographical

station (NTP, MONRE, 2008).

Considering the geographic location of Vietnam, this country is extremely

vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Each issue we see is almost a fundamental,

textbook example of the effects we would see in a warming climate. Scientists, are very

confident in the fact that these impacts can be attributed to climate change.

The Future of Vietnam

Out of all the countries that exist on this planet, Vietnam sits in the top five for

countries who are the most vulnerable to climate change. Most specifically, its

vulnerability to rising sea levels, considering Vietnam has nearly 2,000 miles of

coastline. Mike Hoffman, professor of entomology and executive director of the Cornell

Institute for Climate Change and Agriculture, has stated, “Vietnam is in the bull’s eye

when it comes to climate change.”

According to the DMHCC, a sea level rise of 1 meter would cause 11% of the

population to be affected, 5% of coastline lands would be lost, 7% of the agriculture

activities would be impacted, and 10% of the countries GDP would be reduced. A

multitude of different sectors would be drastically impacted such as: the agricultural

sector, water resources, transport, trade, education, etc. Many groups of already

vulnerable people could lose all they have. This would include the poor and lower class
communities, children, women, and the minority ethnic groups. With the changing

climate Vietnam would see a dramatic increase in the frequency and strength of

extreme weather events. The climate would almost become a sort of snowball effect of

negative consequences that continue to accumulate. Both the Red River Delta and

Mekong River Delta would be the most vulnerable regions in the country.

The biggest issues with the deltas being so vulnerable, is that both the river deltas are

home for large percentages of the populations, as well as the sources for food

production. The Mekong Delta contains nearly 22% of the countries population. It’s also

the source for nearly half of all the food produced in the country (Cornell University,

Blaine Friedlander, April 2016) In general, the agricultural sector will take an incredibly

damaging hit. The wealth of the country will decrease as they depend very heavily upon

trade. Vietnam is considered one of the most important players in the global food

system. They are the second largest producers of coffee in the world. The crops used to
produce coffee grow in the highlands of the country and with the increase in

temperatures and inconsistent rainfall patterns in the North, they could see a huge hit to

their countries income.

The future of Vietnam, will see the severity of storms increase. In both the 1980’s

and the 1990’s, only two storms struck the country. These are storms that got a 12 or

greater on the Beaufort scale. From 2001 to 2008 alone, Vietnam saw five severe

storms that ranked a 12 or above on the Beaufort scale.

Projections for precipitation in Vietnam are very uneven and vary over space and

time. Under the A1B emissions scenario, projections show an increase of 10-20% of

rainfall over both the Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta, where the possibility of

floods is the highest. In the South Central coast region, scenarios show a decrease in

precipitation, which is an issue considering this area is the driest in the country. During

the rainy season, monthly rainfall is projected to decrease from the months of May to

July, but from the months of August to September it is expected to increase. In the dry

season, a deficit in rainfall is expected to happen in many areas in both the north and

south. As mentioned before, the South Central coast and the central highlands will see

a decrease, resulting in further exacerbation of drought issues.

By 2100, based on mid-range IPCC scenario forecasts, Vietnam is likely to

experience a sea level rise of around 75cm. Also, according to the same scenario, the

rising sea levels are likely to drive increased salinity of freshwater resources, which will

create many new issues. The increased salinity will threaten important aquaculture

species, the area and depth of coastal mangrove forests, and significant cultivation
areas in the Mekong and North Deltas. The mangrove forests are extremely important,

as they act as a sort of defensive wall that stabilizes shorelines against storms and

wave damage. This issue combined with even worse storms and rising sea levels is an

extremely dangerous combination.

Contribution to Climate Change

Overall, in comparison to other countries, Vietnam ranks 27th in total greenhouse

gas emissions. To put that into perspective, China ranks at the very top of the list with

20.09% of total global emissions, while vietnam sits at .72%. Vietnam continues to

develop coal fired thermal power plants. It is considered as the major electricity supply

source for their economy. These coal powered plants make up 35% of the countries

total electricity output and they expect that number to increase to 53.2% by the year

2030. The issue with the use of these power plants in Vietnam, reported by MONRE, is

that nearly 90% of Vietnamese enterprises uses completely outdated technology. The

country is a heavy user of Chinese technology and 75% of these imported machines

and production lines were manufactured back in the 1950’s and 60’s. The technology
made back in 50’s and 60’s was obviously no where near as advanced and efficient as

the technology we have today. The older equipment causes serious pollution and

produces huge amounts of greenhouse gases.

Action/Politics

According to MONRE, a number of different programs and projects have been

implemented to mitigate the effects of climate change in the future. The National Target

Program to respond to climate change (NTPRCC) was created in 2012. The National

Target Program on Energy Efficiency (NTPEE) was also created in 2012 to combat

other aspects of climate change. The Support Program for Response to climate change

is another recent program created to enforce mitigation efforts. The United States are

helping Vietnam through another program known as the USAID Vietnam Clean Energy

Program.

Vietnam has emphasized three main focuses in their adaptation and mitigation

processes. One of the first focuses, is the coastal zones. They are attempting to

strengthen and elevate embankments nationwide, to combat the rising sea levels and

damaging waves. The country has accepted that there will be a level of climate change

induced losses but it is almost inevitable. In these coastal zones they also want to

apply new agricultural techniques and attempt to elevate as many houses as they can

above flood levels. There has also been an attempt to encourage coastal residents to

move inland.

Agriculture is another huge focus. Currently, their short term measures include

the prevention of soil erosion, providing proactive crop irrigation, implementing soil
protection, and selecting crops suited to climate change. The long term measures

include adopting climate change suited cropping patterns, attempting to create new

species, and modernizing stockbreeding and cultivation techniques. Another focus they

have added to agriculture is providing additional incentives for aqua farming and

forestry, agriculture, etc.

The last focus, and these are by no means in order of importance, is water

resources. Raising awareness and educating the public is huge focus when it comes to

water resources. Currently, the country is looking at ways to formulate and develop new

and sustainable water resource plans.

When looking at the United States, the country has become so incredibly

polarized that scientific facts have somehow become a bipartisan issue. If you agree

with the evidence of climate change you have become a sheep, liberal, democrat, etc.

In the U.S., the majority of the country hasn’t seen the extreme impacts that climate

change can have, like it has in many other countries. In the case of Vietnam, the debate

over whether climate change exists, and whether or not humans have any influence,

isn’t even an issue. Mike Hoffman, professor at Cornell University stated, “Farmers are

seeing the changes, there are no climate change deniers in Vietnam.” The majority

population in this country has seen the effects of climate change first hand and know

how dangerous it is. Aside from the fact that they are not a developed nation and have

to do some things that are environmentally friendly, such as the main source of

electricity, they are aggressive when it comes to taking action. Vietnam is part of both

the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Climate Agreement.

Conclusion

Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. At the pace

we are going with the current emissions, by 2100 certain areas of Vietnam could look

almost apocalyptic. Fortunately, the country hasn’t been persuaded by propaganda and

is working to effectively mitigate and adapt to the many impacts of climate change. If the

rest of the world takes action like Vietnam, then the future of our planet is in good

shape. If countries like our own don’t take the proper action, then places such as

Vietnam and the people that live there could be unfairly and very negatively impacted.

References

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Change in annual average temperature (°C) during the last 50 years in Vietnam [source
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Friedlander, B. (n.d.). Rising seas puts Vietnam in climate change 'bull's-eye'. Retrieved from
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