Challenges to Dropout Prevention

for Hispanic Students

presented by

Stan Seidner
and
María Medina Seidner
MS Associates

Region I ESC Curriculum Conference September 22, 2003

1
 Overview

•Populations

•Hispanic Dropouts

•Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

• Challenges to School Holding Power and Dropout Prevention

•Discussion

2
Table 1: Comparative Growth of the Hispanic Population in the U.S.—1990 to 2000

Region 1990 1990 Hispanic Population 2000 2000 Hispanic Population Δ% 1990-2000

Totals Number % Totals Number %

Northeast 50,809,229 3,754,389 7.4 53,594,378 5,254,087 9.8 2.4

Midwest 59,668,632 1,726, 509 2.9 64,392,776 3,124,532 4.9 2.0

South 85445,930 6,767,021 7.9 100,236,820 11,586, 11.6 3.7

West 52,786,082 10,106,140 19.9 63,197,932 15, 340,503 24.3 4.4

Total U.S. 248,709,873 22,354,059 9.0 281,421,906 35,305, 818 12.5 3.5
 Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity
in Texas in 1980, 1990 and 2000
(Source: Texas State Data Center)

80

70 65.72
60.59
60
53.11

50

40
31.99
30 25.55
20.98
20
11.89 11.63 11.61
10
2.23 3.29
1.41
0
1980 1990 2000

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

 Percent of Texas Population By Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
Percent (Source: Texas State Data Center)

80

60

40

20

0
r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s r s
e a e a ea ea ea ea ea ea ea ea ea ea ea e a
y y y y y y y y y y y y y y
5 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 +
< to 65
5 to to to to to to to to to to to
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Anglo Hispanic
Table 2: Projected Comparative Growth over Five-Year Periods—2005 to 2025

Group 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Number* % Number* % Number* % Number* % Number* %

Hispanics 38,189 13.3 43,688 14.6 49,255 15.8 55,156 17.0 61,443 18.2

Black 35,446 12.3 37,483 12.5 39,551 12.7 41,548 12.8 43,527 12.9

White** 199,414 69.3 201,956 67.4 204,590 65.4 207,145 63.7 209,339 61.9

Asian/ Pac. Is. 12,497 4.3 14,436 4.7 16,444 5.3 18,527 5.7 20,846 6.2

Nat. Amer. 2,171 0.8 2,300 0.8 2,428 0.8 2,549 0.8 2,668 0.8

Totals 287,717 100 299,863 100 312,268 100 324,925 100 337,823 100

*In thousands (1000) **White non-Hispanic

 Table 3: Projected Comparative Growth over Ten-Year Periods—2030 to 2070

Group 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Number* % Number* % Number* % Number* % Number* %

Hispanics 68,167 19.4 82,691 21.9 98,228 24.3 114,796 26.5 132,492 28.6

Black 45,567 13.0 49,617 13.2 53,466 13.3 57,297 13.3 61,286 13.2

White** 210,983 60.1 212,474 56.3 212,990 52.7 214,190 49.6 217,028 46.8

Asian/ Pac. Is. 23,563 6.7 29,542 7.8 35,759 8.9 42,277 9.8 49,179 10.6

Nat. Amer. 2,787 0.8 3,023 0.8 3,241 0.8 3,448 0.8 3,652 0.8

TOTAL: 351,067 100 377,347 100 403,684 100 432,008 100 463,637 100

*In thousands (1000) **White non-Hispanic

Table 4: Projected Comparative Growth in Texas—2005 to 2025

Group 2005 2015 2025

Number* % Δ %** Number* % Δ %*** Number* % Δ %****

White** 11,292 52.55 -8.04 11,668 48.05 -4.50 11,859 43.62 -4.43

Black 2,797 13.02 1.39 3,325 13.69 0.67 3,871 14.24 0.55

Hispanics 6,624 30.83 5.28 8,294 34.17 3.34 10,230 37.64 3.47

Other***** 774 3.60 1.37 994 4.09 0.49 1,224 4.50 0.41

Total 21,487 100.00 24,281 100.00 27,184 100.00

*In thousands (1000) **White non-Hispanic **Δ2000-2005 growth rate. ***Δ2005-2015 growth rate. ****Δ2015-2025 growth rate.
*****Includes Asian, Pacific Islands, Native Americans, and others
Population in Texas <18 Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas <18 Years of Age by
Race/Ethnicity from 2001 to 2040 (Source: Texas State Data Center)

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 2,552,553 768,367 2,386,765 179,074 5,886,759

Assuming Zero Migration

2010 2,381,989 711,286 2,718,253 191,251 6,002,779

2020 2,250,596 656,616 2,894,620 171,836 5,973,668
2030 2,037,621 599,805 3,023,563 149,589 5,810,578
2040 1,845,920 533,120 3,123,007 145,659 5,647,706

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to

One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 2,410,363 745,637 2,962,436 222,271 6,340,707

2020 2,315,423 724,359 3,567,655 244,147 6,851,584
2030 2,129,593 697,760 4,160,892 261,862 7,250,107
2040 1,955,759 651,536 4,776,747 302,677 7,686,719

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 2,439,166 781,589 3,231,809 258,642 6,711,206

2020 2,382,124 798,752 4,396,662 344,556 7,922,094
2030 2,225,880 811,337 5,740,541 455,889 9,233,647
2040 2,072,294 795,593 7,313,460 625,864 10,807,211
 Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and
Colleges in 1990 and 2030*

2.3% 3.5%
18.7%
32.2%

52.3%
9.2%
13.2% 68.6%

1990 Elementary and Secondary

1990 College

9.7%
5.2%
30.5%
43.0%

38.7%
53.4%
10.9%
8.6%

2030 Elementary and Secondary

2030 College

Anglo Black Hispanic

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario (Source: Texas State Data Center)
 Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in 1990 and 2030*

2.1% 1.9% 2.3%

19.1% 22.3%
25.5%

11.1%
60.7% 10.8% 64.6%
11.7% 67.9%

1990 Population 1990 Householders

1990 Labor Force

7.9% 8.3% 7.8%

36.7% 37.5%
42.3%

45.9% 39.7% 45.6%

9.5% 9.1%
9.7%

2030 Population 2030 Householders 2030 Labor Force

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario (Source: Texas State Data Center)
 STUDENTS: TEXAS PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2002
Source: TEA, 2003

Total Students 4,146,653

% African American 14

% Hispanic 42

% White 41

% Other 3

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 STUDENTS: TEXAS PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2002
Source: TEA, 2003

% Economically Disadvantaged 50.5

% Special Education 12

% Bilingual/ESL Education 13

% Career & Technology Ed. 19

% Gifted & Talented Ed. 8

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 Hispanic Dropouts

1991-2001, between 347,000 and 544,000 10th- 12th-grade students

dropped out each year without successfully completing high school.
October 2000, about 11 percent of 16- 24-year-olds not enrolled in a
high school program lacked high school diploma or equivalent
credential

(U.S. GAO, 2002).

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 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

TEA vs. NCES Numbers through 2002

Grades TEA NCES Difference
7-12
7th grade 703 1,231 -528
8th grade 1,315 3,195 -1,880
9th grade 7,630 15,204 -7,574
10th grade 4,631 13,511 -8,880
11th grade 4,518 11,216 -6,698
12th grade 4,660 14,459 -9,799

Total 23,457 58,816 -35,359

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 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

TEA vs. NCES Numbers through 2002

Grades TEA NCES Difference
9-12

9th grade 7,630 15,204 -7,574

10th grade 4,631 13,511 -8,880
11th grade 4,518 11,216 -6,698
12th grade 4,660 14,459 -9,799

Total 21,439 54,390 -32,951

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 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies
 Longitudinal Attrition Rates in Texas Public High Schools, 1985-86 to 2001-02
Group

Race-Ethnicity Percent
Change*
from 1985-86
to 2001-02
Native American 36
Asian/Pacific Islander -58
Black 35
White -4
Hispanic 13
Gender
Male 23
Female 9
Total 18
Source: Intercultural Development Research Association, 2002. 17
 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies
FY 2000, national status dropout rate 10.9% of 16- through 24-year-
olds

FY 2000, the national Hispanic dropout rate of 16- through 24-year-

olds 27.8 % compared to 6.9 % White students and 13.1% Black
students

(Source: US GAO, 2002).

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 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

Texas: During the past 16 years, annual attrition rate in Texas

increased by 21 percent.

Upward trend in attrition rates from 33 percent in 1985-86 to 40

percent in 1999-00 and 2000-01
Texas: Hispanic students and Black students considerably higher
attrition rates than White students. In 2000-01, Hispanic students
attrition rate of 52 percent compared to 46 percent for Black students
and 27 percent for White students.

– Intercultural Development Research Association, 2001

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 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

 Texas: Two of every five high school students lost from high school
enrollment prior to graduation.
 Forty percent or two of every five students enrolled in the ninth
grade in Texas public schools during the 1997-98 school year failed
to reach the 12th grade in 2000-01.
 An estimated 144,241 students, or about 40 percent of the 1997-98
freshman class, were lost from public school enrollment by 2000-01

--Johnson, 2001

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 Hispanic Dropouts Numbers Controversies

 IDRA estimated school dropouts was cost the state $17.12 billion in
foregone income, lost tax revenues, and increased job training,
welfare, unemployment and criminal justice costs.
 By 1998, 13 years later estimated costs $319 billion.
 By 2001, 16 years later costs of school dropouts is $441 billion.
 Social and economic costs of the dropout problem in Texas has
increased by 26 times the initial estimates.

--Johnson, 2001

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 Challenges to School Holding Power and
Dropout Prevention
 Federal and State Legislative Requirements

 Impact of Reduced Funding

 Shifting data standards and requirements

 Reductions in School Resources

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 Challenges to School Holding Power and
Dropout Prevention
 Weakened Accountability Monitoring

 Dwindling trained and experienced human workforce

 i.Diminished “front-line” Resources and Field Support
 ii.Weakened and Reduced Centralized Accountability Oversight
(ie., TEA).

 Increased Politicizing of Education and Educational Decisions

 Other
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 SOME SOURCES

 Intercultural Development Research Association. Stemming the Tide of Arizona's

Dropouts: An Action Agenda for Arizona (Phoenix, Arizona: Arizona Minority
Education Policy Analysis Center of the Arizona Commission on Postsecondary
Education, 2002).
 Johnson, Roy L. "Missing: Texas Youth - Cost of School Dropouts Escalates," IDRA
Newsletter (San Antonio, Texas: Intercultural Development Research Association,
October 2001).
 National Center for Education Statistics. Dropout Rates in the United States: 1998
(Washington, D.C.: US Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and
Improvement, November 1999).
 National Dropout Prevention Network. "Dropout Statistics," Internet posting
(Washington, D.C.: National Dropout Prevention Network, 2000).
 US General Accounting Office. School Dropouts: Education Could Play a Stronger Role
in Identifying and Disseminating Promising Prevention Strategies (Washington, D.C.:
US General Accounting Office, 2002).
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For Additional Information

Please contact MS Associates

at

msasscts@aol.com
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