1/C/3

Probabilistic analysis of stability of earth slopes

Analyse probabiliste de la stabilité des talus en terre

E. O. F. CALLE, Research Engineer, Delft Soil Mechanics Laboratory, D e lft Netherlands

SYNOPSIS A p r o b a b i l i s t i c m e t h o d for the a n a l y s i s of s t a b i l i t y o f s l o p e s is p r e s e n t e d . D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f the

probability of failure anywhere along the slope axis involves two steps. T h e first step concerns dete r m i n a t i o n o f the
p r o b a b i l i t y o f o c c u r r e n c e o f a p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e zon e , i.e. an a r e a w h e r e the c o n v e n t i o n a l f a c t o r o f s a f e t y i s l e s s
t h a n unity. It i s d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t a r e a l f a i l u r e c an o n l y o c c u r w i t h i n s u c h area. T h e s e c o n d s t e p i n v o l v e s e v a l u a t i o n
of t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a r e a l f a i l u r e o c c u r s , a s s u m i n g t h e p r e s e n c e o f a p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e z o n e . I n t h i s s t e p t h e
effects of the finite w i d t h o f a real failure mode m u s t b e taken in t o account. A p r o c e d u r e is s uggested for up d a t i n g
the e s t i m a t e o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e , if i t i s o b s e r v e d o r m a y b e a s s u m e d t h a t c e r t a i n s t a t e s o f l o a d i n g a c t u a l l y
have o c c u r r e d and d i d n o t i n v o l v e failure.

introduction
the e x p e c t e d w i d t h of the f a i l u r e mode. T h e a d o p t e d
There has been a continuous development of probability analytical description enabled a further development,
based met h o d s for c o m p u t ational analysis o f reliability which would otherwise have been cumbersome. A kind of
of e a r t h s l o p e s d u r i n g t h e p a s t decade. In the e a r l i e s t Bayesian procedure could be designed, by which it is p o s ­
publications attention was restricted to a probabilistic sible to u pdate e s timates of the p r o b a b i l i t y of failure
treatment of the conventional analysis of stability in a based o n o b s e rvation of the his t o r y of survival o f the
c r o s s s e c t i o n a l p l a n e o f t h e s l o p e (Wu & K r a f t 1 9 7 0 , slope.
C o r n e l l 1972, A l o n s o 1975, T a n g Y u c e m e n & A n g 1976). K e y
fe a t u r e of t h e s e a n a l y s e s is t h a t n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y of D E SCRIPTION OF TH E FAILURE MODE
shearing strength of soil and uncertainty, originating
Th e failure mode adopted here consists of a cylindrical
from limited sampling and testing defects, leads to u n ­
failure surface, whi c h extends over a finite width £ in
ce rt a i n t y a b o u t the a c t ual v a l u e of the factor of safety.
t h e a l o n g s l o p e d i r e c t i o n ( f i g u r e 1). A n a l y s i s o f e q u i ­
The p r o b a b i l i t y of f a ilure of the slope was c o n s i d e r e d
librium of failure generating (overturning) moment and
to equ a l the p r o b a b i l i t y tha t the factor of s a fe ty is
failure re si s t i n g m o m e n t s p r e d i c t s failure if
less than unity. Either o n l y the m o s t critical slip circle
or a m o r e o r l e s s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s e t of p o t e n t i a l s l i p / M + 2.M (1)
circles was considered, t a king into ac c o u n t d e c a y of i r i M°
m u t u a l c o r r e l a t i o n (Morla C a t a l a n & C o r n e l l 1976).
Here M de n o t e s local failure resi s t i n g m o m e n t d u e to
A basically three dimensional failure mode has been
m o b i l i z e d friction along the (potential) failure surface,
e x a m i n e d in a p r o b a b i l i s t i c c o n t e x t b y V a n m a r c k e (1977).
M e the "end s e c t i o n " c o n t r i b u t i o n to the f a i l u r e r e s i s t i n g
He c o n s i d e r e d a r i g i d c y l i n d e r o f f i n i t e w i d t h in the
m o m e n t and M0 the local overturning moment.
along slope direction. His analysis a c c ounts for "end
section" contributions to the failure resisting moment.
C o m bination of the effects of these contributions, on the
one hand, and the e f f e c t of " a v e r a g i n g " of s h e a r i n g
strength v ariations along the slip surface, on the other
hand, y i e l d s a so c a l l e d c r i t i c a l w i d t h o f t h e f a i l u r e
mode for w h i c h the c o r r e s ponding p r o b a b i l i t y of occurrence
takes a maximum. Th e analysis, according to Vanmarcke,
thus p r e d i c t s the p r o b a b i l i t y o f failu re as we l l as the
m o s t p r o b a b l e w i d t h o f t h e f a i l u r e area.

The analysis presented here adopts Vanmarcke's fundamen­

tal c o n c e p t o f m o d e l i n g s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s o f t h e s o i l ' s
s h e a r i n g s t r e n g t h as a r a n d o m p r o c e s s , as w e l l a s h i s
c o ncept o f a "finite width" failure mode. It d i f f e r s from
his a n alysis in the sense that th i s w i d t h is not p r e ­
a s s i g n e d t o som e c r i t i c a l value. Instead, it is t a k e n to
be equal to the exp e c t e d width of the zone where the c o n ­
ventional fact o r of safety is less than unity, the so
c a l l e d p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e zone. It is d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t
a real failure mode, if it occurs, n e c e s s a r i l y c oincides
e x actly w i t h such a zone. Wh e t h e r or not a real failure
actually occurs, depends o n the "end section" c o n t r i b u t ­
ions to the failure resi s t i n g moment. T h e analysis yields
estimates of the probability that a failure occurs and
From equation 1 it is found that existence of a real
failure mode necessarily implies existence of a potentially
u n s t a b l e zone. F i g u r e 2 i n d i c a t e s a p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e
z one of w i d t h t. N o w c o n s i d e r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t a r eal
failu re occu rs, and its wid th is less than £ (figure 2a ) .
The part of the p o tentially unstable zone complementary
to t he f a i l u r e m o d e w o u l d b e e x c l u d e d f r o m f a i l u r e . H o w ­
ever, c o m p a r i s o n of failure causing and failure resisting
moments, acting o n this pa r t of the zo n e in d i c a t e its i n ­
stability, since

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/ Mq (2) PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ZONE

i,"'
w h e r e i t is a s s u m e d t h a t t h e p a r t l y m o b i l i z e d e n d s e c t i o n
resistance is less than M e . Next, consider the pos s i ­
bility that the width of a real failure mode exceeds t
(figure 2 b ) . C l e a r l y the p a r t of the failure m o d e ou t s i d e
Z is g e n e r a t e d b y i n t e r n a l i n t e r a c t i o n o f s h e a r i n g f o r c e s
NT ( w i t h M ^ < M e ) . C o m p a r i s o n o f t h e m o m e n t s a c t i n g o n t h i s
p a r t o f the f a i l u r e m o d e y i e l d s a c o n d i t i o n for its i n ­
stability
Ml f M - / M„ + M 0 (3)
l2 l2
which is obviously not satisfied since M ^ < M e and M r <M0 ,
So it appears that a real failure mode can o n l y occur
w i t h i n a p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e zone, and its w i d t h e q u a l s
the width of such zone. It is be l i e v e d that this s t a t e ­
ment holds approximately true when a less idealized d e s ­
c r i p t i o n o f a f ailure m o d e is adopted.
It has be e n w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d tha t most, if n o t all, of the
properties attributed to a soil in a natural d e p osit m a y
e x h i b i t s i g n i f i c a n t s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s (Lumb 1966, S c h u l t z e
1971), In a s l o p e s t a b i l i t y analy s i s , v a r i a t i o n s o f soi l
density and shearing strength properties yield the failure
causing and the failure resisting moments and consequently
th e fact or of s afe t y to be v a r y i n g q u a n t i t i e s in the along
s l o p e d i r e c t i o n . I t h a s b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d b y A l o n s o (1975)
th at the ma j o r p a r t of var iat i o n s of the factor o f s a fe ty
is due to v a r i a t i o n s of the failure r e s i s t i n g moment.
T h ese variations originate from variations of shearing
s t r e n g t h p r o p e r t i e s , if v a r i a t i o n s o f t h e p o r e p r e s s u r e
d i s t r i b u t i o n i s l e f t o u t o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n . So, o n l y
variations of shearing strength properties will be con­
s i d e r e d here. Moreover, in order to avoid c o m p l e x i t y of
n otation, the an a l y s i s he r e is restri c t e d to a c ohesive
s o i l in a o n e l a y e r s t r a t u m . T h i s i m p o s e s n o r e s t r i c t i o n
to a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f t he m e t h o d o l o g y in th e c a s e o f s o i l s
w i t h i n t e r n a l f r i c t i o n angle, a p p l y i n g an e f f e c t i v e st r e s s
a nalysis, or in the c a s e of m u l t i l a y e r e d strata.

St a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s have b e e n i n t r o d u c e d as an adequate
tool for analyt i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n of the p a t t e r n of v a r i a ­
tions. In this paper, a random field model, more or less
s i m i l a r t o t h e m o d e l i n t r o d u c e d b y V a n m a r c k e (1977), h a s
b e e n adopted. T h e e r r a t i c p a t t e r n of c o h e s i o n c is c o n ­
c eived as a n o r m a l l y (gaussian) dis t r i b u t e d r andom variable
at eac h l o c a t i o n w i t h i n the soil layer. P a r a m e t e r s o f the
d i s t r i b u t i o n , i.e. e x p e c t e d m e a n v a l u e u c a n d s t a n d a r d
deviation o c , may be estimated from a relatively limited
n umber of borehole samples. Furthermore, the r a n d o m field
mod e l r e q u i r e s the a s s e s s m e n t of a "decay of correlation"
model, which m o r e or less indicates the "average w a v e ­
l e n g t h " i n the p a t t e r n o f v a r i a t i o n s . In o u r a n a l y s i s , the
following decay-of-correlation model has been assumed

r Ax2+Ay2 Az2 ,
p = e x p { --------— £---- —— (6)
d2

w h e r e p =p (Ax,Ay,Az) d e n o t e s c o r r e l a t i o n a m o n g d e v i a t i o n s
c c
f r o m t h e m e a n v a l u e o f c o h e s i o n in t wo p o i n t s o f t h e s o i l
layer, s eparated b y a dis t a n c e Ax and Ay in h o r i z o n t a l and
A z i n v e r t i c a l d i r e c t i o n . P a r a m e t e r s d, a n d d will be
h v
r e f e r r e d t o as the a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n p a r a m e t e r s o r d i s t a n c e s
Figure 2. A p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e z o n e a n d h y p o t h e t i c a l of correlation.
failure modes
In o r d e r t o r e v e a l t h e s t a t i s t i c s o f v a r i a t i o n s of the
f a c tor o f s a f e t y F in th e a lo n g s lo p e d i rec tio n, c o n sid er
t h e p o t e n t i a l s l i p c i r c l e C , i n d i c a t e d i n f i g u r e 3. T h e
The factor of safety of a failure mode, including the
failure resisting moment can be obtained from integration
effects of end section contributions, reads of cohesion along the slipcircle:
2MP
F*-F (4)
M (x) = R / c(x,y,z ) dC (7)
C
where F is the conventional factor of safety. The proba­
where C symbolically denotes the slip circle arc with
b i l i t y tha t a f a i l u r e o c c u r s is e x p r e s s e d as
r a d i u s R a n d c ix ' Y c »z c ^ t h e l o c a l v a l u e o f c o h e s i o n . T h e
I I expected mean value of the failure r e sisting m o m e n t reads:
P(f) = P ( F <1 ) = P( F <1 A F <1 )
(5)
= P( F <1 I F<1 ) P( F < 1 ) (8)
M

H e r e , P( ) d e n o t e s p r o b a b i l i t y o f o c c u r r e n c e o f a n e v e n t , w h e r e |C| d e n o t e s t h e l e n g t h o f t h e f a i l u r e a r c . N o t e t h a t
f the e v e n t " f a i l u r e " , F<1 t h e e v e n t " the ( c o nventional) u is independent of x since u i s so. T h e e x p r e s s i o n f o r
factor of s a f e t y is less t han u n i t y s o m e w h e r e a l o n g the r c
M r (x+A) i s s i m i l a r t o e q u a t i o n 7 i f x i s r e p l a c e d b y x + A x .
slope axis", and F ^<1 the e v e n t "the factor of s a f e t y of
a f a i l u r e mod e of w i d t h t is less t h a n u n ity". In the The a u t o c o v a r i a n c e of bo t h r e s i s t i n g m o m e n t s reads:
follo win g F(x)<l will be used t o in d i c a t e the e v e n t "the
f a c t o r o f s a f e t y at t he l o c a t i o n x in the a l o n g s l o p e c o v ( M r (x) , M r ( x + û x ) ) = E ( M r (x) M r (x+Ax)) - u 2
d i r e c t i o n is less t h a n u n i t y " , and F+l is u s e d t o i n d i c a t e (9)
a down crossing event somewhere along the slope axis. In
R2 o2 / / p (Ax,y -v -z ) dC! dC2
e q u a t i o n 5, A d e n o t e s i n t e r s e c t i o n o f e v e n t s a n d | d e n o t e s
Ci C 2
ci yc2' Ci CJ
" c o n d i t i o n a l to".

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w h e r e E ( ) d e n o t e s m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p e c t a t i o n a n d C\ a n d C 2
denote identical slip circles at x and x+Ax respectively. * (~ B - 7 5 * >
P(f) = ------------ P ( F < 1 ) (17)
The var i a n c e of the resi s t i n g m o m e n t equa l s the covar i a n c e
for Ax= 0 :
<J>(-0)
N o t e t h a t P(f) a p p r o a c h e s P ( F<1) a s t he e x p e c t e d w i d t h £
o2 = cov(M (x),M (x)) (10) i n c r e a s e s l a r g e l y , a n d P(f) t e n d s to z e r o if Z d e c r e a s e s
M r r
r to zero.
and the coefficient of correlation among failure resisting
moments at x and x+Ax equals b y definition:

p (Ax) = c o v (M (x) ,M (x + A x ) i / a 2, (11)

Mr r r Mr

C o r r e l a t i o n s a m o n g f a c t o r s of s a f e t y a r e i d e n t i c a l to
co rr e l a t i o n s amon g failure r esi s t i n g moments, since the
overturning moment is considered as a deterministic con­
s ta n t . So, fo r s i m p l i c i t y o f n o t a t i o n , t h e i n d i c e s M r o r
F will be dropped if we refer to correlation. For the
p r e s e n t c a s e it tur n s o u t that:
Figure 4. S t a n d a r d i z e d w i d t h £ / - p"(o) versus 0

P (Ax) = e x p ( - ( A x / d h )2 ) (12)

A PROCEDURE FOR UPDATING ESTIMATES OF THE PROBABILITY

OF FAILURE

Un t i l now, e s t i m a t e s of t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of f a i l u r e of a
slope have been based purely on statistical information
c oncer n i n g shear strength properties. For any state of
loading, a n d p o r e p r e s s u r e d i s t i b u t i o n if an e f f e c t i v e
stress a nalysis is considered, a c o r r e s p o n d i n g e s t i m a t e of
the probability of failure can be determined. These estim­
a t e s w i l l b e r e f e r r e d to as prior estimates. Suppose
that o n e of t h e a n a l y z e d s t a t e s o f l o a d i n g is e f f e c t u a t e d ,
a n d it i s o b s e r v e d t h a t n o r e a l f a i l u r e o c c u r s . If t h e
fundamental properties of soil do no t alter in the course
of time, th e n there wi l l o c c u r no f a ilure either, if the
Figure 3. D e f i n i t i o n sketch same state of loading is e f f e c t u a t e d a n e x t time. In other
words, the p r o b a b i l i t y of failure in this s t ate o f loading
r e d u c e s to zero. T h i s n e w est i m a t e w i l l be r e f e r r e d to as
Cross covariances and cross correlations among failure the posterior estim a t e . In t h i s e x a mple, the r e d u c t i o n
resisting moments and factors of safety, associated to of the p r o b a b i l i t y of failure is trivial. M o r e i n t e r e s t i n g ­
different slip circle arcs, m a y b e e v a l u a t e d a c c o r d i n g to ly is th e q u e s t i o n h o w t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e u n d e r
e q u a t i o n 9, i f Ci a n d C 2 refer to different slip circles. e x t r e m e c o n d i t i o n s of l o a d i n g is r e d u c e d , if it i s o b s e r v e d
that other conditions have been survived, Procedures, which
Failure resisting moments and factors of safety are r ef e r to this problem, a p p l i c a b l e to s p ecific situations,
normally distributed, since a normal distribution has been h a v e b e e n r e p o r t e d b y M a t s u o (1983) a n d b y t h e a u t h o r
a s s u m e d for the c o h e s i o n . T h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the fa c t o r (1983).
of s a f e t y F ( x ) = M r (x)/M0 is less t han u n i t y s o m e w h e r e a l o n g
a slope, whi c h extends from x =o to x=L, equals: I n o r d e r t o o b t a i n a g e n e r a l p r o c e d u r e t o r e d u c e estim^-
ate s of t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of failure, c o n s i d e r t w o d i f f e r e n t
P( F < 1 ) * P ( F ( o ) <1 ) + P( F ( o ) >1 ) P( F + l ) (13) st a t e s o f l o a d i n g of a slope, r e f e r r e d to a s s t a t e s 1 a n d
2. T h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g f a c t o r s o f s a f e t y F j a n d F 2 m a y r e f e r
if it is a s s u m e d that L>>d^. Introducing the so called
to d i f f e r e n t c r i tic al fai lur e arcs. V ari anc es, aut o and
index of reliability:
cross correlations of these factors of safety and the a s ­
sociated prior e s t i m a t e s of the p r o b a b i l i t i e s of f a i l u r e
6 = (uM - M 0 ) / a M or 6 = (uF - l ) / a F (14) can be obtained from numerical evaluation, in accordance
w i t h t he p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n s . N o w s u p p o s e t h a t s t a t e 1 is
it is found, for small target probabilities: actually effectuated, and no failure is observed. The
posterior estimate of the p r obability of failure in state
P( F< 1 ) = *(-0) + 4>(0) e x p t - ^ B 2 ) /-p"(o) (15) 2 f a p p l y i n g t h e t o t a l p r o b a b i l i t y t h e o r e m , i s e x p r e s s e d as:

w h e r e $( ) t h e s t a n d a r d i z e d G a u s s i a n p r o b a b i l i t y f u n c t i o n ,
p (f2 If 1) = (p (f2> - P(fjAf2))/(l-P(fi)) (38)
a n d d o u b l e p r i m e d e n o t e s s e c o n d d e r i v a t i v e w . r . t . x. T h e
f o r m u l a f o r t h e l e v e l c r o s s i n g p r o b a b i l i t y P( F+l ) c a n b e A n o v e r b a r r e d e v e n t d e n o t e s n e g a t i o n o f t h e e v e n t , P(fi)
f o u n d i n a n y s t a n d a r d t e x t b o o k o n r a n d o m p r o c e s s e s {e. g . and P ( f £ ) are prior estimates of the probabilities of
P a p oul is 1965). It m a y e a s i l y b e v e r i f i e d that the e x p e c ­ f a i l u r e . I n e q u a t i o n 18 o n l y t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f i n t e r ­
ted w i d t h o f a p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e z o n e c a n b e e x p r e s s e d secti on of eve nts P ( f ^ A f 2 ) is ye t unknown. Rec a l l i n g
as: equation 5 this p r o b a b i l i t y equals:
Z - 2 tt <J>(-0) e x p i ^ g 2 ) / / - p " ( o ) (16)
Z
P (f ! A f 2 ) = P ( F f < l
Z
A Fj<l A Fi<l A F 2 <1 ) (19)
In f i g u r e 4 t h e r a t i o £ / - p " ( o ) i s g i v e n a s a f u n c t i o n o f
t h e i n d e x o f r e l i a b i l i t y , a c c o r d i n g t o e q u a t i o n 16. N o t e If p o t e n t i a l l y u n s t a b l e zon e s o c c u r in b o t h s t a t e s of
that l / / - p " ( o ) = 0 . 7 d h in the p r e s e n t case. loading, then these zones either coincide or t h e y are
s epa rat ed b y a distance, s u f f i c i e n t l y large to a s s u m e weak
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF A FAILURE cross correlation among the local factors of safety w ithin
these zones. If the two zones coincide, then the c o r r e l a ­
Recalling equations 4 and 5 and applying the results of
the p r e vious section, the p r o b a b i l i t y o f failure can be t i o n a m o n g F^ a n d F 2 , a n d t h u s a m o n g p f a n d f £ c a n b e
e v a l u a t e d as: e v a l u a t e d as t h e c r o s s c o r r e l a t i o n at z e r o lag. T h e r . h . s .

811
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p r o b a b i l i t y o f e q u a t i o n 19 c a n t h u s b e d e c o m p o s e d i n t o t w o
p o b a b i l i t i e s , e a c h o n e c o n d i t i o n a l to o n e o f t he tw o
mutual exclusive events. A tedious and lengthy derivation,
which will not be given here, y ields the formula:

P ( f ! A f 2 ) = P(F..<l){S(p) Q ij + S ( o ) ( l - Q i:j) P ( F i + l ) }

. ( 20)
w h e r e i= 2 , j = l if P ( F 2 < 1 ) > P ( F j < 1 ) , a n d i = l , j = 2 o t h e r w i s e ,
and p is the c o e f f i c i e n t of c r o s s c o r r e l a t i o n at z e r o lag
a m o n g t h e f a c t o r s o f s a f e t y . I n e q u a t i o n 2 0 is:
2Me 2 Mlie?
P
Vi-Bi- - -$2 - ,p) Figure 5. C r o s s sectional view of the a n a lyzed slope
1 M.r 1 £ 2 °m .r 2
S(p) = (21)
Ÿ ( - ei,-p2 *p) CONCLUSIONS

and analogously S ( o ) , A p r o b a b i l i t y b a s e d m e t h o d for j u d g e m e n t of r e l i a b i l i t y of

earth slopes has b e e n presented. T h e m e t h o d a p p l i e s to
(2 2 ) long "uniform" slopes. Finite width failure m o des are co n ­
Q21 = T (-Bi,-e2,P)/ Y(-8i,«,P)
sidered, and the effects of "end section" c o n t r i butions
Ql2 = ^ ( ”B i ,- B 2 /P)/ f( - , - B 2 ,p) (23) to resistance against failure are taken into account. The
method predicts the probability of occurrence of a failure
w h e r e ¥ ( , ,p) i s t h e s t a n d a r d i z e d b i v a r i a t e n o r m a l s o m ewh ere along the slope axis, and the ex p e c t e d w i d t h of
p r o b a b i l i t y f u n c t i o n . N o t e t h a t ¥ ( a , b , o ) =4» (a) <t> (b) . a failure mode. F u r t h er mor e, it is d e m o n s t r a t e d that global
E q u a t i o n 20 m a y e a s i l y b e v e r i f i e d f o r e x t r e m a l s i t u a t i o n s information, obtained from observation of the slope's
o f c r o s s c o r r e l a t i o n a m o n g Fj a n d F 2 . A c o m p u t e r i z e d history of survival, can be formalized into a procedure
p rocedure is indicated for efficient numerical solution for r e d u c t i o n of the p r o b a b i l i t y o f failure.
o f th e b i v a r i a t e i n t e g r a l s i n v o l v e d in e q u a t i o n s 2 1 , 2 2 , 2 3 .
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
APPLICATION T O A FICTITIOUS SLOPE
T h i s r e s e a r c h h a s been i nitiated and is s upported b y the
B a s e d o n the a n a l y s i s of the p r e v i o u s secti o n s , the D u t c h N a t i o n a l C e n t r e f o r F l o o d P r e v e n t i o n R e s e a r c h (COW) .
computer code PROSTAB has been developed. T h e programme T h e i r k i n d p e r m i s s i o n f o r p u b l i c a t i o n is a p p r e c i a t e d .
is s u i t a b l e for e i t h e r (quasi) u n d r a i n e d o r e f f e c t i v e
O p i n i o n s e xp res sed in th i s p a p e r do not n e c e s s a r i l y
s t r e s s a n a l y s i s o f s t a b i l i t y o f a s l o p e in h o m o g e n e o u s o r
r eflect the views o f COW.
s tra t i f i e d soils. It a p p l i e s the (iterative) B i s h o p m e t h o d
of slices.
REFERENCES
A s a d e m o n s t r a t i o n of the theory, the s t a b i l i t y o f a slope
A l o n s o , E.E. (1976) R i s k a n a l y s i s o f s l o p e s a n d i t s
in a cohesive soil has been analyzed. Figure 5 shows a
a p p l i c a t i o n in C a n a d i a n s e n s i t i v e c l a y s , G e o t e c h n i q u e
cross sectional view of the slope. Seven different levels 2 6 , n o 3.
o f o v e r b u r d e n l o a d i n g h a v e b e e n c o n s i d e r e d . T h e corresr.
ponding conventional factors of safety range from 1.33 to C a l l e , E . O . F . (1983) S t a b i l i t y a n a l y s i s o f s l o p e s , a
0.97, as t he o v e r b u r d e n i n c r e a s e s f r o m z e r o t o 3 0 k N / m 2 , pro b a b i l i s t i c approach, Lec t u r e notes PATO, Delft#(dutch)
The associated critical failure arcs are indicated in C o r n e l l , C . A . (1971) F i r s t o r d e r u n c e r t a i n t y a n a l y s i s o f
f i g u r e 5. T h e s e l e c t e d s o i l p a r a m e t e r s , a s w e l l a s t h e k e y s o i l d e f o r m a t i o n a n d s t a b i l i t y , Pr o c . 1 s t Int. Con f . on
r e s u l t s o f t h e c o m p u t a t i o n s h a v e b e e n s u m m a r i z e d in t a b l e A p p l . of Prob. and Stat. to Soil and Struct. Eng., Hong
1. T h i s t a b l e a l s o i n c l u d e s s o m e r e s u l t s , a p p l y i n g Kong.
Vanmarcke's theory (Vanmarcke 1977). Th e computed p r o b a ­ L u m b , P. ( 1 9 6 6 ) T h e v a r i a b i l i t y o f n a t u r a l s o i l s , C a n a d i a n
b ilities of failure, according to both theories, match G e o t e c h n i c a l J o u r n . 3.
r e a s o n a b l y well, e xcept for the case of zero overburden, M a t s u o , M. & A. A s a o k a (1983) A s i m p l i f i e d p r o c e d u r e f o r
w h e r e t h e y d i f f e r b y a f a c t o r o f 4. T h e e s t i m a t e d w i d t h s u p d a t i n g st ab i l i t y risk of em b a n k m e n t s from o b s e r v a t i o n s
of fail ure areas are found to a gr e e r e a s o n a b l y well, d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n , P r o c . 4 th Int. C o n f . A p p l . Pro b .
except for the case of high p r o b a b i l i t y of failure. Stat. in Soil and Struct. Eng., Florence.
M o r l a C a t a l a n , J. & C . A . C o r n e l l (1976) E a r t h s l o p e r e l i ­
TABLE I abi l i t y b y a level crossing method, Journ. Geot. Eng.
Di v . P r o c A S C E , G T 6 v o l 102.
Results of analysis of the slope in figure 5. P a p o u l i s , A. (1965) P r o b a b i l i t y , r a n d o m v a r i a b l e s a n d
stochastic processes, McGraw Hill Kogakusha.
q F 6 P (F<1) P ( f ) I p (f2|fi> : p ( f) 1 V- T a n g , W . H . , M . S . Y u c e m e n & A . H - S . A n g (1976) P r o b a b i l i t y
ba s e d sho rt term d e s i g n of slopes, Journ. C a n a d i a n Geot.
0 1.33 2.03 0.48 0.009 33 0 .0 0 2 21 S o c . , v o l 13.
5 1.26 1.77 0.70 0 .0 2 37 0.018 S c h u l t z e , E. ( 1 9 7 1 ) F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n s a n d c o r r e l a t i o n
10 1.2 0 1.34 0 .8 8 0.07 44 0.051 0 .11 36 o f s o i l p r o p e r t i e s , Proc. 1st Int. Conf. A p p l . Prob.
15 1.13 0.95 0.97 0.18 53 0 .12 Stat. in S o i l a n d St r u c t . E n g . , H o n g Kong.
20 1.08 0.55 0.99 0.34 66 0 .2 0 V a n m a r c k e , E. (1977) R e l i a b i l i t y o f e a r t h s l o p e s , J o u r n .
25 1.0 2 0.17 1.0 0.54 87 0.30 0.76 262 G e o t . Eng. D i v . Proc. A S C E / GTll v o l 103.
30 0.97 -.2 2 1.0 0.72 120 0.40 Wu, T. H . & L. M . K r a f t (1970) S a f e t y a n a l y s i s o f s l o p e s ,
Journ, of the Soil Mech, and Found. Eng. Div. Proc.
1 ) a c c o r d i n g t o V a n m a r c k e 's t h e o r y A S C E , S M 2 v o l 96.

2 ) prob. of fail ure at q = l 0 if no fail ure at q=5 etc.

q i n k N / m 2 , £ i n m . ; p c = 1 7 •5 o =2 .62 k N / m 2 ; c L = 4 5 m. ,
. 0 m. L = 1 0 0 0 m.

812