Webinar

Stock
Study
Session
Mark Minervini
with David Ryan
April 6, 2016
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Mark Minervini
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Trade Like A Stock
Market Wizard
How to Achieve
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 EARN WHILE YOU LEARN
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Webinar

Stock
Study
Session
Mark Minervini
with David Ryan
April 6, 2016

We will be starting momentarily…

Conditions for a Major Bear Market
1. Extreme deflation
2. Rising inflation
3. Inverted yield curve – Fed tightening
4. Overvaluation – very high PE ratio S&P 500
 Stage 2 Uptrend

1. Stock price is above both the 150-day and 200-day moving averages
2. 150-day moving average is above the 200-day
3. The 200-day moving average has turned up
4. The 50-day moving average is above both the 150-day and the 200-day
5. Stock price has made a higher highs and a higher low
The Contraction Count TM
 +147% in 55 days

I’m Buying Here

-3%
Stock price is adjusted for stock splits -9%
-29%
6’ 5”
284 pounds
46” waist
 Netflix +525% in 21 months

27W 27/8 3T

Prior Uptrend

Base
Stage 4 VCP
Stage 2
Stage 1

VCP
VCP
Amazon +240% in 12 months

4
2
Wal-Mart +360% in 21 months

1982 Bear Market Bottom

The best
stocks make
their lows
before the
market
bottoms
Lumber Liquidators +220% in 14 months

2012 Market Bottom

What to Avoid…
 Faulty Base

Stock down 61%

NASDAQ up 10%
 Faulty Base

Stock down 36%

NASDAQ up 6%
 Faulty Base
Faulty Base

Stock down 60%

NASDAQ down 4% Stock down 38%
NASDAQ up 7%
I’m buying here
 Yahoo

I’m Buying Here

+7900% in 29 months

Stock price is adjusted for stock splits

Amazon.com +2500% in 16 months

I’m Buying Here

Stock price is adjusted for stock splits

Starbucks +3200% in 11 years
Buy Point
Dicks Sporting Goods +200% in 15 months

I’m Buying Here

WHAT TO LOOK FOR
History shows that more than 96% of superperformance stocks emerge from bear
markets and general market corrections.

Off the general market low, look for the following:

1. Stocks hitting the 52-week high list.
2. Stocks that corrected the least amount during the market’s declining period trading
within 25% of a 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better).
3. Stocks that surged in price off the market lows; the largest percentage movers.
4. Stocks that are base-building; consolidating within the context of a long-term uptrend.
5. Accumulation in the major averages at or around the time the leaders start breaking out.
6. A proliferation of stocks emerging through proper buy points out of bases.
 Indecisiveness Regret
Should I buy? I Should have bought!
Should I sell? I Should have sold!
Should I hold? I Should have held!

Sold short term price

advance only to
watch it go on to
become a big winner

Let a nice short term

gain evaporate
Trader trying to hold for a
Investor long term move
Trading Priorities
a. Cut your loss c.
b. Protect your line
c. Protect your profit

b.
a.

• Keep losses small

• Move stop to breakeven ASAP
• Don’t let good size gains turn into a losses
Why Most Trader Fail to Achieve Big Performance
1. Poor selection criteria
2. Don’t cut losses
3. Average down
4. Don’t nail down profits when they have them
5. Let decent gains turn into losses
6. Overtrade – in it for action
7. Under trade – paralysis by analysis
8. Don’t know the truth about their trading - leads
to poor risk/reward management
9. Style drift
10. Want too much too fast – lack of patience
11. Overly diversify
12. Don’t have contingency plans
13. Afraid to buy unfamiliar names
14. Don’t define trading and won’t sacrifice
Bebe Stores – 1998

1,2, inside, 4
Google – 2004

TBA

TBA
Up 7 days in a row

Buy Point
NR

NR
Knightsbridge Tankers +44% in 12 days

Buy Point

3
2
1
Shake Shack Inc. +86% in 30 days

Buy Point
Position Sizing Guidelines
• 1.25% - 2.50% risk of total equity
• 10% maximum stop per trade
• Average loss no more than 5-6% per trade
• Shoot for optimal 25% position sizing
• Never take a position larger than 50%
No big losses
No forced trades
Breakeven +50 Rule
• If you’re not getting the returns you desire, don’t blame the
market or your circumstances; take responsibility, take
control, take action, learn from it through post analysis…
repeat!

• Most important, believe in yourself – you can do much

more than you think you can

• Rules are of no use unless you follow them

1. Fail to have rules

2. Fail to follow rules
3. Have rules and follow them