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housing market in
Central and
Northern Europe
– Overview of
market trends and
development
Study extract
The market study at hand analyzes the prefabricated 1+2 family housing market in Central and Northern Europe, covering the countries
Germany, Scandinavia, the UK, Austria, Switzerland and Poland, and is based on primary and secondary sources of information
The market volume of 1+2 family housing in focus regions is expected to display solid growth of 2.0% p.a. from 2017 to 2022, driven by
a strong anticipated GDP development, favorable financing conditions, and governmental regulations and subsidiaries
Among 1+2 family housing, the prefabricated housing segment (c.15% of all 1+2 family houses) is expected to further gain in relevance by
growing at 3.2% p.a. from 2017 to 2022, driven particularly by an increasing demand for planning security and technology acceptance
> Germany (c.25 k), followed by Scandinavia (c.13 k) and the UK (c.12 k) are expected to display the largest prefab volumes in 2017
> Absolute volume growth is projected to be driven by Germany (3.1% p.a. in 2017-'22), the UK (3.8% p.a.) and Scandinavia (3.5% p.a.)
– In Poland prefabricated housing is currently less popular, considerable catch-up effects are expected going forward (6.9% p.a.)
Within prefabricated 1+2 family housing, there is a trend towards turnkey solutions with convenience and security as key drivers
> Turnkey solutions are the prevailing prefabricated finishing type, accounting for c.50% of the market volume, and are projected to
outgrow the prefabricated housing market in all focus regions (3.8% p.a. vs. 3.2% p.a. volume growth)
> Germany (c.10 k), Scandinavia (c.8 k) and the UK (c.7 k) are the largest prefabricated turnkey housing markets in 2017 and are
expected to grow at c.4% p.a. between 2017 and 2022
The market value of prefabricated 1+2 family housing is expected to grow at c.6% p.a. between 2017 and 2022 in Central and Northern
Europe due to favorable pricing trends (e.g. shift towards more expensive turnkey solutions and increasing wage levels)
> Turnkey solutions are forecast to outgrow the prefabricated housing market with c.7% growth p.a.
> Geographically, Switzerland (c.360 k per average prefabricated house), Scandinavia (c.330 k) and the UK (c.250 k) show the highest
average prefabricated 1+2 family housing prices in 2017, while Poland (c.80 k) is estimated to have the lowest price level
The route-to-market differs by focus region: In the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), prefabricated 1+2 family houses are
typically sold directly to end customers, while the UK has a higher share of intermediaries (i.e. developers and housing associations)
The key buying criteria of customers are price/quality ratio, quality of sales, product customization and brand perception – Customers are
increasingly willing to pay for superior quality, given the overall high investment combined with an expected long period of usage
In the DACH region, several manufacturers of prefabricated 1+2 family housing exist, with vast differences in product price segment and
level of finishing type
> The largest manufacturers are DFH, followed by Equistone assets (Bien-Zenker and Hanse Haus), WeberHaus, FingerHaus and
Polish-headquartered Danwood based on 2016 revenues
> The majority of manufacturers have been able to gradually increase their revenues between 2012 and 2016, driven by a favorable
market environment, which is expected to be the base for further growth going forward
Specifically for Germany, the prefabricated 1+2 family housing market appears to be largely fragmented with the top 5 suppliers
accounting for c.30% and suppliers beyond the top 5 holding market shares of below 3%
> Within the prefabricated 1+2 family housing market, the turnkey subsegment reveals a similarly high level of market concentration
> This market characteristic creates possibilities for M&A activity, which has intensified in recent years
The entry of new manufacturers in the prefabricated 1+2 family housing market is hampered by several barriers – The main market entry
barriers are related to technical capabilities, sales network with an attractive online channel, brand/track record and capital intensity
A. Market segmentation 5
E. Roland Berger 45
In blue: Focus of this study 2) Note: The key focus of this study is on Central and Northern Europe; Poland was added to the analysis as a representative
country for the promising Eastern European region
Price segment
High-end Mid-end Low-end
(EUR >250 k) (EUR 150-250 k) (EUR <150 k)
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 8
Scandinavia appears to have the highest prefab share and Switzerland
the highest turnkey share – Low prefab and turnkey shares in Poland
Overview of market segmentation by focus regions, 2017
Share of turnkey solutions [among prefabricated segment] > Scandinavia, Austria and
Germany are estimated to
High 70 have the highest
65 prefabricated shares
Switzerland among focus regions –
60 Low share is assumed in
55 the UK and Poland (focus
United Kingdom on solid constructions)
50 > The share of turnkey
45 solutions in the
prefabricated segment is
40 Scandinavia expected to be highest in
Germany
35 Switzerland, the UK and
Scandinavia, while Poland
30 Austria and Austria indicate rather
25 low shares
20 Poland
Low 15
0 10 20 30 40 50
Low High
Share of prefabricated housing [among 1+2 family housing segment]
Relevant market size (indicative), number of completed 1+2 family houses p.a.
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 9
B. Market trends
and drivers
A GDP development > Short/mid-term GDP growth rates are one of the closest proxies for
construction development – Positive GDP growth rates expected
1+2 family housing
B Financing conditions > Interest rates are expected to remain at record low levels in focus
and land costs (interest regions until 2019, positively impacting the new 1+2 housing market
rates) > From 2019 onwards moderate increases are expected to be partially
compensated for by a stabilization of land prices
C Population growth > The overall population level is expected to remain at a largely stable to
(incl. migration) slightly increasing level in all focus regions in the upcoming years
Volume
D Energy efficiency regulations > All focus regions have building energy efficiency regulations in place –
& governmental subsidies UK customers strongly benefit from governmental housing initiatives
E Planning security > Customers increasingly value planning security regarding budget and
Prefabricated
> One partner from design to construction facilitates the entire process
key
I Price of prefabricated > Prefab turnkey house prices are driven by wages and to a lesser
turnkey houses extent material prices – Increase in wages leads to price increases
Overall > Overall, favorable trends for the prefabricated housing market
in the focus regions
High relevance Low relevance Positive influence Negative influence
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 11
A GDP development
All focus countries are forecast to show positive GDP growth rates,
averaging to c.2% p.a. between 2017 and 2022
Comparison of real GDP development, 2010-2022 [%, indexed1)]
Historical Forecast CAGR CAGR > For Germany, a favorable and
'14-'17 '17-'22 stable GDP development of
1.20 1.5% p.a. by 2022 has been
Poland 3.7% 3.1%
forecast mainly due to
Norway 1.7% 1.8% – Favorable financing and
1.15
United Kingdom 1.9% 1.8% investment conditions
– Construction activity and
1.10 Denmark 1.9% 1.8% further public investments
Switzerland 1.2% 1.8% – Strong labor market
1.05 Sweden 3.5% 1.8% > The economy in Poland is
expected to outperform that of
Austria 1.8% 1.6% other focus countries,
1.00 Germany particularly due to
2.0% 1.5%
– Transfer of EU funds and
increased investments
0.95
– Strong labor market driving
private consumption (also
0.90 through government
transfers)
> GDP forecasts for the UK
0.85 remain difficult as the full
effects of Brexit are not yet
clear – However, low interest
0.80 rates still provide a good
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 climate for investments
1) Index: 2017 = 1.00
Source: Oxford Economics, World Bank, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 12
B Financing conditions and land costs (interest rates)
Source: Oxford Economics, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 13
C Population growth (incl. migration)
40
Poland 0.0% -0.1%
30
Sweden 0.9% 0.6%
20 Austria 0.6% 0.5%
Switzerland 1.1% 0.9%
10
Denmark 0.6% 0.3%
0 Norway 0.9% 0.9%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Oxford Economics, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 14
D Energy efficiency regulations & governmental subsidies
Market "At the moment, there "Across Scandinavia, "Prefab housing "In Switzerland, "There are programs
feedback is no dedicated the prefabricated manufacturers benefit canton regulations that aim at increasing
governmental subsidy segment is historically from governmental favor local companies. the number of energy-
program in place for very strong – There is programs to increase However, the efficient and passive
prefabricated houses" simply no need for the and facilitate access referendum on second houses in Poland with
Manufacturer government to further to new housing" homes limits 1+2 funds secured until
support the industry Manufacturer family prefabricated 2022"
"Higher energy through subsidies" housing constructions. Manufacturer
efficiency require- Manufacturer "The ecological trend In Austria, I believe no
ments increasingly and focus on energy subsidy programs are
support the prefabrica- efficiency will favor in place"
ted market segment" prefabricated houses" Manufacturer
Market expert Market expert
Influence
Positive influence Negative influence
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 15
E Planning security
"I value the reliability of "When deciding on my "Our customers of "I would always prefer a "Customers value the fact
house cost estimations. house, I was in contact with prefabricated houses know prefabricated house after that they have to deal with
Once the contract is signed 5 companies. All of them exactly what they get from having had horrible only one party during the
the house price is fixed" provided me with detailed us. We offer homes that experiences with architects construction process within
Customer information on potential are highly precise and not meeting deadlines" agreed deadlines and
move-in dates. Planning accurate, without any heat- Customer budget"
security was definitely a loss and absolutely air- Manufacturer
"Market players use the strong criterion for my tight. This offers a very high "Compared with
promise to reliably deliver choice" quality level to customers" competition from on-site "All construction dates are
the house on a pre-agreed Customer Manufacturer 1+2 family projects, we can agreed beforehand.
date as a means of certainly offer higher Customers know what to
attracting customers" planning security. Our expect and within what
Market expert "One of the drivers of the "Knowing the exact move- building process is routine- timeframe – It definitely
Norwegian prefabricated in date helped us to plan based, guaranteeing increases planning
housing market is certainly and organize moving out of delivery at a promised point security"
planning security. our previous home. in time" Manufacturer
"When deciding for a Customers really look for a Additionally, we Manufacturer
prefabricated house and concrete date when they appreciated the possibility "Knowledge of the exact
against on-site can move in, which we can to agree upon a reliable "Knowing exactly what you price before construction is
construction, planning offer" house construction budget need to pay upfront is a key a great advantage that
security is a key driver" Manufacturer upfront" advantage for our clients" increases the comfort level"
Manufacturer Customer Manufacturer Manufacturer
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 16
F Construction period
> Cellar & > Masonry > Roof, > Shell-finished > Floor-covering > Turnkey:
foundations works windows, The finishing,
doors fixtures and
fittings are
ready
Note: Planning/design not taken into account; best-case scenario shown
Source: Immonet, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 17
G Technology acceptance
"Key players have "In Denmark, prefabricated "They have a modern and "Neighbors and friends "Prefabricated houses are
enlarged and personalized houses are typically non- luxurious product offer. I have already asked me a not yet widely accepted"
their portfolio – This has timber-frame solutions. I would not hesitate to buy a couple of times who I built Market expert
helped to increase the expect, however, a slightly new house from them if I my prefabricated house
acceptance level" increasing trend towards needed one in the future" with, as it looks modern "In Poland, prefabricated
Manufacturer timber-frame in the future" Manufacturer and quite unique" houses were historically
Manufacturer Customer associated with lower
"Prefabricated houses are quality, yet nowadays
"Prefabricated construction quite a convenient product.
"In Sweden, we are people increasingly realize
style is just the better and Furthermore, it can be a
European leaders in & appreciate their quality"
more modern way with solution to the rapid
prefabricated technology. "I am a satisfied customer Manufacturer
regard to energy efficiency retirement rate of UK
and fulfillment of regulatory People appreciate the high of a prefabricated house in
energy efficiency" construction workers" "The acceptance of timber-
requirements" Manufacturer Switzerland, yet
Manufacturer Market expert sometimes I am a bit frame prefabricated
jealous when I see the houses is relatively low but
"We've shown that there is development and options we see an increased
"The possibility to introduce "In general, the
a demand for prefabricated available nowadays in the interest in this technology,
individual adjustments is Scandinavians simply like
houses, we have shown prefabricated housing as customers have been
key in winning new timber-frame buildings
that quality levels are high, market" approaching us more
customers against on-site based on their
and it's therefore becoming Customer frequently in the last 2-3
construction" architectural tastes"
increasingly accepted" years"
Manufacturer Manufacturer
Market expert Manufacturer
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 18
H One-stop shop solution
"When I decided for my second home in "Building a house and organizing all
VS. Switzerland, I just wanted to have one point of necessary process steps can be quite
contact. For me, it was of utmost importance that cumbersome. I really appreciated having one
On-site construction my involvement in the process was limited. As a point of contact that guides me through the
businessman, I simply do not have the time" process"
Besides the Customer Customer
architect, the house
builder needs to get
in contact with up "As many of our customers are families with both "All across Europe, we see a trend that
to 10 additional parents working, we see that one-stop shop individuals are less savvy when it comes to
parties (e.g. roofer, solutions are increasingly valued. People have house building. The work that people in the
Client floorer, plumber, less time for planning and overseeing the past could do on their own often needs to be
electrician)
construction process of their house. This is why provided by companies now"
we offer the necessary support" Market expert
Manufacturer
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 19
I Price of prefabricated turnkey houses
1) Direct pay and social insurance expenditures and labor-related taxes (minus subsidies);
2) Nominal values – For Denmark, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK recalculated from local currency to EUR using floating average exchange rates
Source: Oxford Economics, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 20
C. Market size and
development
1) Nominal price and market value development; 2) Completed houses Output Input / By focus region
High 450,000
400,000 Switzerland 2022 (0.6)
Scandinavia 2022 (6.1)
Switzerland 2017 (0.5)
350,000
Scandinavia 2017 (4.3)
300,000
United Kingdom 2022 (4.3)
250,000
Austria 2022 (1.2)
200,000 United Kingdom 2017 (3.0)
Germany 2022 (7.1)
150,000 Germany 2017 (5.2)
Austria 2017 (1.0)
100,000 Poland 2022 (0.2)
Poland 2017 (0.1)
50,000
0
Low 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Low High
Relevant market size of prefabricated housing [EUR bn] Prefabricated housing market volume2) [units]
1) Average prefabricated 1+2 family housing prices used; 2) Completed 1+2 prefabricated family housing
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 23
The market volume of 1+2 family housing is expected to continue its
growth between 2017 and 2022 but at a slower pace
Market volume of 1+2 family housing, 2014-2022 [k units]
CAGR CAGR > The market volume of 1+2
'14-'17 '17-'22 family housing is forecast
423.5 428.0 5.3% 2.0% to display solid growth of
410.4 419.0 6.5 c.2% p.a. from 2017-'22
398.7 6.4 6.4 18.4 Switzerland -2.6% -1.6%
6.6 17.8 18.1
386.8 6.8 17.6 2.0% 1.4% > All focus regions display
7.0 17.5 36.3 Austria
365.9 34.5 35.4
an expected increase in
356.8 7.2
17.2 33.4 Scandinavia1) 6.6% 3.1%
33.1
331.7 16.4
7.5 16.6 31.2 1+2 family housing market
16.2
7.6
27.3
29.1
91.9 92.1 Poland 3.4% 1.8%
volumes, except for
91.7
25.7 88.3
91.6 Switzerland
84.3
79.8 80.1 > Geographically, the UK,
76.1 Germany and Poland
show the highest demand
123.5 124.8 126.0 Germany2) 2.3% 2.0% for 1+2 family housing in
118.1 122.3
114.3
102.7 109.6 2017 across all focus
106.8 regions
148.7
United
132.9 135.0 138.9 145.1 146.9
Kingdom 10.2% 2.3%
123.1 123.4
99.2
Source: Euroconstruct, Swedish National Statistics, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 24
Among 1+2 family housing, prefabricated housing is expected to
gain in relevance, growing at c.3% p.a. from 2017 to 2022
Market volume of prefabricated housing, 2014-2022 [k units]
CAGR CAGR > Prefabricated housing
'14-'17 '17-'22 growth is expected to
70.1 6.1% 3.2% outpace the 1+2 family
68.4 1.4 housing market
66.8 1.4 Switzerland -1.7% -0.6%
64.6 1.3 6.5
62.3 1.4 6.4 Austria 1.9% 1.6% > Geographically, absolute
59.8 1.4 6.3
1.4 6.2 growth is projected to be
56.3 6.2 driven by Germany, the
53.2 1.4 6.0
15.2
15.6 Scandinavia1) 6.9% 3.5% UK and Scandinavia
50.1 1.5 5.8 14.8
1.5 14.2
5.8 13.9 > The UK is expected to be
5.7 13.2 2.2 Poland 7.6% 6.9% negatively impacted by
2.0 2.1
12.7 1.9
11.8 1.8 Brexit and is forecast to
1.6
10.8
1.4
grow stably but well below
1.4 strong historical growth
1.3
28.4 29.0 29.6 Germany 4.6% 3.1% figures
26.6 27.8
24.1
25.4 > In Poland, prefabricated
22.0 housing is currently
22.2
assumed to be less
popular than in other focus
United regions – Some catch-up
14.0 14.3 14.7 12.2% 3.8%
8.6 10.8 10.9 12.2 12.6 13.2 Kingdom effect anticipated going
forward, underpinned by
strong growth until 2022
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1) Including Sweden, Norway and Denmark
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 25
Within prefabricated 1+2 family housing, there is a trend towards
turnkey solutions with convenience and security as key drivers
Market volume of prefabricated turnkey housing, 2014-2022 [k units]
CAGR CAGR > The share of turnkey
'14-'17 '17-'22 solutions is projected to
33.7 7.3% 3.8% outgrow the prefabricated
32.7 0.9 -1.5% -0.2% housing market
31.7 0.9 Switzerland
30.4 2.0
0.9 2.0 Austria 2.1% 2.0% > This development is
29.2 0.9 1.9
27.9 0.9 1.9 expected to be driven by a
26.2 0.9 1.9 growing demand for
24.6 0.9 1.8
9.3
9.6 Scandinavia1) 7.2% 3.8% convenience and security
1.7 9.0
22.6 0.9
8.6 (provision of guarantee)
1.7
0.9
7.9
8.4 across all focus regions
1.7 0.4 0.5 Poland 8.8% 7.9%
7.7
0.4
0.4 > Germany, followed by
7.1 0.4 Scandinavia and the UK
6.4 0.3
0.3 are the largest
0.3 11.3 11.6 Germany 5.6% 4.0% prefabricated turnkey
11.0
0.3 10.7
9.6 10.1 housing markets
8.1 9.0
8.1
United
8.0 8.5 8.8 9.1 12.8% 4.3%
6.4 6.5 7.4 7.6 Kingdom
5.1
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 26
The market value of prefabricated 1+2 family housing is projected to
grow faster than volume growth due to favorable pricing trends
Market value of prefabricated housing, 2014-2022 [EUR bn]
CAGR CAGR > The market value of
'14-'17 '17-'22 prefabricated 1+2 family
19.4 9.7% 6.4% housing is expected to
18.4 0.6 Switzerland 1.3% 1.5% grow faster than volume
17.4 0.5 1.2
Austria 4.8% 4.2%
growth due to
0.5 1.2
16.3 – Shift towards turnkey
0.5 1.1
15.3 solutions with 20-30%
0.5 1.1
14.2 6.1 Scandinavia1) 10.4% 7.0% higher average prices
0.5 1.0
13.0 5.7 (greater value added)
1.0 5.4
11.9 0.5
5.0
vs. floor-covering
0.9
10.8 0.5 4.7 0.2 Poland 11.5% 11.8% – Favorable pricing
0.9 0.2
0.5 4.3 0.2 trends due to growing
0.9 4.0 0.2
0.1 wage levels across all
3.6
3.2
0.1
Germany
focus regions
0.1 6.7
7.1 8.1% 6.3%
0.1 6.1
6.4 – Positive region mix
0.1 5.6
5.2 effects (Scandinavia
4.8 and the UK with above
4.2
4.1 average price level and
United market growth)
3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3
Kingdom 15.4% 7.1%
2.6 3.0 3.2
2.0 2.5
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 27
Turnkey solutions account for more than 50% of the prefabricated
1+2 family housing market and are forecast to outgrow the market
Market value of prefabricated turnkey housing, 2014-2022 [EUR bn]
CAGR CAGR > Within prefabricated 1+2
'14-'17 '17-'22 family housing, turnkey
11.2 10.6% 7.0% solutions are clearly the
10.5 0.4 Switzerland F 1.5% 1.8% prevailing finishing type
9.9 0.4
0.5
Austria E 5.0% 4.6%
(share of more than 50%)
0.4
9.2 0.4 > Turnkey solutions are
0.4
8.6 0.4 projected to outgrow the
0.4 prefabricated housing
8.0 0.4
0.4 4.2 Scandinavia1) D 10.6% 7.4%
0.4 3.9 market by growing at c.7%
7.3 0.4
0.3
3.7 p.a. from 2017 to 2022
6.6 0.3 3.4
0.4 3.2
> Scandinavia, followed by
5.9 0.3 0.1 Poland C 12.6% 12.8%
0.3 2.9 0.1 Germany and the UK are
0.3 0.0 the largest prefabricated
2.7 0.0
2.4 0.0 3.2 Germany B 9.1% 7.1%
turnkey housing markets
0.0 3.0
2.2
0.0 2.9 in value terms
0.0 2.7
2.5
0.0 2.3
1.8 2.1
1.8
United
2.6 2.7 2.9 A 15.8% 7.5%
2.0 2.2 2.3 Kingdom
1.7 1.7
1.3
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 28
A Deep dive on United Kingdom
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 29
B Deep dive on Germany
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 30
C Deep dive on Poland
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 31
D Deep dive on Scandinavia
By price segment
15.6
13.2 EUR >250k 6.9% 3.2%
10.8
8.8
2014 2017 2022 6.2
7.6 EUR 150-250k 7.4% 4.0%
3.8 4.8 5.8 EUR <150k 5.4% 2.9%
Share of prefabricated 0.7 0.9 1.0
x.x%
1+2 family housing
2014 2017 2022
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 32
E Deep dive on Austria
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 33
F Deep dive on Switzerland
By price segment
1.5 1.4 1.4
EUR >250k -1.9% -0.8%
2014 2017 2022 1.2 1.1 1.0 EUR 150-250k -0.8% 0.4%
0.3
EUR <150k -4.4% -2.6%
Share of prefabricated 0.3 0.3
x.x% 0.0 0.0 0.0
1+2 family housing
2014 2017 2022
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 34
Among the focus regions, Switzerland, followed by Scandinavia and
the UK, displays the highest average prefabricated housing price
Development of average prefabricated housing pricing, 2014-2022 [EUR k]
Germany Scandinavia United Kingdom > All focus regions show
growing average
3.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% prefabricated housing
prices between 2017 and
390 2022, largely in line with
300 330
247
288 historical price increases
205 239 228
186 > Switzerland, followed by
Scandinavia and the UK
have the highest average
2014 2017 2022 2014 2017 2022 2014 2017 2022 prefabricated housing
price – Poland is
estimated to have the
Austria Switzerland Poland lowest price
> Prices are positively
2.9% 2.6% 3.1% 2.1% 3.6% 4.6% impacted by increasing
404
wage levels and a shift
333 364 towards turnkey solutions,
which are more expensive
166 188 (higher value added)
152
71 79 100
Source: Euroconstruct, Interviews, Press research, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 35
D. Selected customer and
manufacturer aspects
DACH1) Poland UK
Relevance of > Large developers almost > Housing manufacturers > Rather low share of self-build
developers exclusively focus on traditional typically organize and is a result of the lack of land
technologies to retain control supervise house construction with building permission,
and other of the construction process on their own difficulties in obtaining a
intermediaries and to optimize costs > Developers are cost conscious mortgage for self-builders and
> Small prefabricated housing and rely on traditional historical customer
manufacturers are reported to technologies to fully control the preferences towards developer
cooperate with regional construction process projects
developers on projects of up > Developers typically do not > However, the importance of
to 10 houses – However, this consider prefabricated houses developers is likely to slightly
is rarely the case for large for their projects, fearing decrease as the government
manufactures difficulty in finding multiple plans to grant more incentives
buyers for houses based on and permissions to individual
Future trend the rather new technology investors
1) Germany, Austria and Switzerland
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 37
Backup
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 38
Customers consider quality of sales, product customization, brand
image and price/quality ratio as key buying criteria
Customers' key buying criteria Indicative
1) Estimated average price of prefabricated houses delivered based on market interviews and desk research; 2) Key business focus based on market interviews and desk research;
3) Estimated revenues as no financial information publically available
Source: Orbis, Annual reports, Company websites, Trade press, Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 40
There are several manufacturers of prefabricated housing in the
DACH region – DFH is the largest manufacturer in DACH
Overview of selected manufacturers in the DACH region Non-exhaustive
Conglomerate of four
DFH Simmern 447 - - - () brands
Bien-
Zenker
Schlüchtern 144 - - - () Acquired by Equistone
in December 2017
Hanse Oberleichters-
Haus bach
116 - - from ADCURAM
CAGR
2012-2016
480
440 DFH 17.1%
400
360
320
280 Equistone 7.7%
assets3)
240 7.8%
WeberHaus
200
160
FingerHaus 4.0%1)
Danwood2) 21.1%
120
ScanHaus 8.0%
80
Luxhaus 3.4%1)
40
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1) CAGR 2012-2015; 2) Figures in PLN have been recalculated to EUR using the fixed exchange rate of 4.4 PLN/EUR;
3) Combined figures of Bien-Zenker and Hanse Haus (also for 2013 prior to the acquisition by ADCURAM) – Acquired by Equistone in 2017
Source: Company information, Dafne, Annual reports, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 42
The German market is largely fragmented with the top 5 suppliers
accounting for c.30% – Recent trend towards consolidation revealed
High-level overview of market volume shares in Germany, 2016 Indicative
Source: Company information, Dafne, Annual reports, Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 43
Market entry barriers are particularly based on technical capabilities,
sales network and brand/track record
Market entry barriers Indicative
Sales > The establishment of a comprehensive and attractive online channel is required, providing detailed building specifications,
network/ pictures, videos, configuration tools and showcases
channel > In addition, the majority of customers demand a local sales agent supporting with the customization of the final product and
acting as a central contact person throughout the project – Setting up an exhaustive and skilled sales network is expensive
and time consuming due to strong market competition and lack of experienced sales agents
Brand > Due to high investment costs, customers typically demand a certain track record of successfully delivered housing projects in
and track their relevant region and a positive brand perception in the market (e.g. through former customers or discussion boards)
record > Suppliers new to the market have to first develop and demonstrate their quality and reliability, thereby continuously building
up a positive market perception/track record
Capital > Considerable investment costs in sales network (incl. housing exhibitions), certifications, as well as to a lesser extent
intensity production plant, require the build-up of sufficient sales volumes
Source: Interviews, Roland Berger 20180108_Roland Berger_Prefabricated housing market study_Draft version_vf.pptx 44
E. Roland Berger
Investment development in the transport Impact of the online market on the Construction materials and supply
industry in Germany (2013) domestic technology sector (2013) industries in Germany/Switzerland (2012)
Phone: +49 89 9230-8372 Phone: +48 601 364 303 Phone: +49 211 4389-2208
E-mail: kai-stefan.schober@rolandberger.com E-mail: konrad.gruda@org.rolandberger.com E-mail: justus.jandt@rolandberger.com
Overview
Abbreviation Meaning Abbreviation Meaning
Overview
Expression Meaning
Prefabricated house Industrially prefabricated houses are manufactured offsite, transported to the construction site and only
assembled on-site
Finishing types
Shell-finished Shell-finished is a prefabricated housing finishing standard that typically includes the shell construction with
plaster and key exterior elements (e.g. windows, exterior doors, roofing and chimney)
Floor-covering As shell-finished and in addition: heating and electrical wiring
Turnkey As floor-covering and in addition: Key interior elements, including, among other things, floor coverings, wall
coverings, interior door panels and sanitary facilities
Material types
Solid house Solid houses are typically constructed on-site with traditional building technologies using different types of
materials (i.e. brick, concrete and wood)
Timber-frame house Timber-frame houses are typically constructed with structures/elements that are built with a wooden frame
28.4 29.0 29.6 28.4 29.0 29.6 28.4 29.0 29.6 232 239
26.6 27.8 26.6 27.8 26.6 27.8 205 212 218 225
25.4 25.4 25.4
22.2 22.0
24.1
22.2 22.0
24.1
22.2 22.0
24.1
3.9 4.4
4.8 5.2 5.5 186 192 199
10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 3.3 3.5
9.0 9.6 10.1 2.8 2.9
Germany
8.1 8.1
24.3 24.8 25.4
21.6 22.6 23.7 11.6 11.7 13.0 13.8
14.5 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7
18.9 18.7 20.5
10.6 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6
9.1 8.9 9.6 10.2
5.0 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 7.8 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4
3.4 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 388 396 404
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4
345 357 364 372 380
333
Switzerland
This study was prepared by Roland Berger GmbH ("RB") and is based on publicly available information which has not been independently verified by RB, as well as
certain assumptions, general assessments, projections and experience derived from RB's consulting activities, in each case as at the time of the study's preparation. Any
assumptions, assessments, projections and experience values contained in this study involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis, which may or
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