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9/19/2018

Operations Research-2

Module – 06

Network Modules

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Module 06 - Coverage

Network Models
• Introduction, terminologies
• Network construction
• CPM & PERT, determination of Critical paths and duration
• Prediction of date of completion in PERT
• Elements of crashing
• Least cost project scheduling in CPM
• Variance, estimation of floats

Module-06 (B)

AOA Network

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Construction of AOA Network – Basic Rules

1. In AOA network diagram, arrows represent activities and


circles the events; the length of arrow is of no significance;
they can cross over each other
2. Each activity should be represented by only one arrow
and must have start and end circles (events). The circle at
the tail end of an activity represents the start event and
the one at the head end completion event i.e., the
completion of the work / activity

Construction of AOA Network – Basic Rules

3. Each activity should have a unique identification


number; An Activity Identification No. must be larger
than that of any activities that precede it.
4. The event numbered 1 denotes the start of the project
and is called the initial event. All activities emerging
(taking off) from event 1 should not be preceded by any
other activity / activities. An event carrying the highest
number denotes the completion event. A network should
have only one initial event and only one terminal event

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Construction of AOA Network – Basic Rules


5. The general rule for numbering the event is that the head
event should always be numbered larger than the number
at its tail; i.e., events should be numbered such that for
every activity (i
(i, j), j > i
6. An activity must be uniquely identified by its starting and
completion events, which implies
a) An event number should not get repeated or duplicated
b) Two activities should not be identified by the same
starting and completion events
c) Activities must be represented either by their symbols or
by the corresponding ordered pair of starting-
starting-
completion events

Construction of AOA Network – Basic Rules

7. The logical sequence (or interrelationship) between


activities:
a) An event cannot be declared as occurred until all
its incoming activities have been completed
b) An activity cannot start unless all pending
activities, on which it depends, have been
completed
c) Though a dummy activity does not consume
either any resource or time, even then it has to
follow the rules 6(a) & 6(b)

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Construction of AOA Network – Basic Rules

8. Networks typically flow from left to right.


9. Looping (recycling through a set of activities) is not
allowed
10. Common start and stop nodes are to be used when
there are multiple starts / ends

Partial Network

A (5) B (7) C (8)


1 2 3 4

Total cycle time = 20

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Partial Network

3
B (10)
Dummy (0)
A (5)
1 2 4 4
C (7) D (8)

Total cycle time = 23

: Decides the cycle time of network

Exercise-1

An assembly is to be made from two components X and Y. Both


components must be turned on a lathe. Y must be polished whereas,
X need not be polished. The sequence of activities, together with their
predecessors, is given below:

Activity Description Predecessor activity


A Open work order -
B Get material for X A
C Get material for Y A
D Turn X on Lathe B
E Turn Y on Lathe B, C
F Polish Y E
G Assemble X & Y D, F
H Pack G

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Exercise-1

3 D
B
A G H
1 2 6 7 8
C
4 5
E F

Exercise-2
Listed in the table are the activities and sequencing necessary for a
maintenance job on heat exchangers in a refinery
Predecessor
Activity Description
activity
A Dismantle pipe connection -
B Dismantle heater, closure, and floating frame A
C Remove the bundle B
D Clean bolts B
E Clean heater and floating heat front B
F Clean tube bundle C
G Clean shell C
H Replace tube bundle F, G
I Prepare shell pressure test D, E, H
J Prepare tube pressure test and reassemble I

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Exercise-2

5
F D2
4 6
G H
C
A B D I J
1 2 3 8 9 10

E
7
D1

Exercise-2
Let us introduce time duration each activity needs as tabulated below

Predecessor
Activity Description Duration
activity
A Dismantle pipe connection - 2
B Dismantle heater, closure, and FF A 4
C Remove the bundle B 7
D Clean bolts B 3
E Clean heater and floating heat front B 9
F Clean tube bundle C 6
G Clean shell C 5
H Replace tube bundle F, G 4
I Prepare shell pressure test D, E, H 8
J Prepare tube pressure test & reassemble I 6

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Exercise-2

5
D2(0)
4 6
G(5) H(4)

A(2) B(4) D (3) I (8)


1 2 3 8 9 J (6) 10

7
D1(0)
Path# Activities Time
1 A-B-C-F-D2-H-I-J 2+4+7+6+0+4+8+6 = 37
2 A-B-C-G-H-I-J 2+4+7+5+4+8+6 = 36
3 A-B-D-I-J 2+4+3+8+6 = 23
4 A-B-E-D2-I-J 2+4+9+0+8+6 = 29

Critical Path Analysis


Notations:

Ei : Earliest occurrence : This is the earliest time for an event to occur


time of an event immediately after all preceding activities have
“i” been completed, without affecting the entire
project

Li : Latest allowable : This is the latest time at which an event can


time of an event occur without causing a delay in already
“i” determined project completion time.

ESi j : Early starting time : This is the earliest time an activity can possibly
of an activity (i, j) start without affecting the project completion

LSi j : Late starting time : This is the latest possible time an activity can
of an activity (i, j) start without delaying the project completion

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Critical Path Analysis


Notations: (contd.)

EFi j : Early finishing : This is the earliest time an activity can possibly
time of an finish without affecting the project completion
activity (i, j)

LFi j : Late finishing : This is the latest possible time an activity must
time of an finish without delaying the project completion
activity (i, j)

tij : Duration of an : This is the time required to complete an activity


activity (i, j)

• AOA network diagram – contains only one initial event and one end event.
• All events are numbered consecutively with integer 1, 2, 3, . . . , n, such that
“ j > i “ for any two events “i” and “j” connected by an activity

Forward Pass Method


Calculation of Earliest Event / Activity Times

• Calculations begin from the initial event 1, proceeding through the


events in an increasing order of event numbers, and end at the final
event, say N
• At each event, its earliest occurrence time (E) of the event and
earliest start and finish times for each activity that begins at that
event are calculated
• When calculations end at the final event N, its earliest occurrence
time of event N gives the earliest possible completion time of the
entire project

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Forward Pass Method


Methodology:

a) Set the earliest occurrence time of initial event 1 to zero i.e.,


E1 = 0 for i = 1
b) Set the earliest start time equal to zero for all activities that begin at
initial event (i= 1)
c) Calculate the earliest finish time of each activity that begins at event 1.
This is equal to the earliest start time of the activity(= 0) plus the
duration of the activity ( ti j ) . That is:
for all activities (i, j)
EF1j = ES1j + t1j = E1 + t1j
beginning at event “ i “ (=1)

Forward Pass Method


Methodology: (contd.)

d) Proceed to the next event, say “j “; j > i


e) Calculate the earliest occurrence time for the event j. This is the maximum
of the earliest finish times of all activities ending (or merging) into the
event j, that is:
Ej = Max (EFi j ) = Max (Ei + ti j ), for all immediate preceding activities
f) If j = N (final event), then earliest finish time for the project, that is, the
earliest occurrence time EN for the final event is given by:
EN = Max (EFi j ) = Max (EN-1 + ti j ) , for all terminal activities

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Backward Pass Method


Calculation of Latest Event / Activity Times

• In this method, calculations begin from the final event N.


• Proceed through the events in the decreasing order of event numbers
and end at the initial event 1.
• At each event, the latest occurrence time (L) of th activity and the
latest finish and start times for each activity that is terminating at that
event are calculated
• This procedure continues till the initial event 1 is reached

Backward Pass Method


Methodology:

a) Set the latest occurrence of last event N equal to its earliest time
(known from forward pass method). That is:
LN = EN , j = N
b) Calculate the latest finish time of each activity which end at event j.
This is equal to latest occurrence time of the final event; that is:
LFi j = Li ; for all activities (i, j) ending at event j
c) Calculate the latest start times of all activities ending at j. This is
obtained by subtracting the duration of the activity ( ti j ) from the
latest finish time of the activity. That is,
LFi j = Lj and,
LSi j = LFi j – ti j = Lj – ti j for all activities (I, j) ending at event j

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Backward Pass Method


Methodology: (contd.)

d) Proceed backward to the event in the sequence, that decreases j by 1


e) Calculate latest occurrence time of event i (i < j). This is the minimum of
the latest start times of all activities starting from the event ‘ i ’. That is,
Li = Min (LSi j ) = Min (Lj – ti j ), for all immediate successor activities
f) If i = 1 (initial event), then the latest occurrence time L1 for the initial
event is given by:
for all immediate
L1 = Min (LSi j ) = Min (Lj - 1 – ti j )
successor activities

Exercise
Acti
Description Predecessors Duration
vity
A Organise sales office - 6
B Hire salesmen A 4
C Train salesmen B 7
D Select advertising agency A 2
E Plan advertising campaign D 4
F Conduct advertising campaign E 10
G Design package - 2
H Setup packaging facilities G 10
I Order stock from manufacturer - 13
J Package initial stocks I, H 6
K Select distributors A 9
L Sell to distributors C, K 3
M Ship stocks to distributors J, L 5

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Exercise

Forward Pass Method –


4
Earliest Times for Events
13 13
12

H (10)
19
1 G (2) 2 3 Dummy 6 L (3) 20 9 M (5) 25 10
0 2 15 17 20 22 25
17
6
2 B (4) 10 5
6 10

8
7 E (4) 12 8
8 12

Exercise
Calculations: Forward Pass Method:
E1 =0 E7 = E2 + t2, 7 = 6 + 2 = 8
E2 = E1 + t1, 2 = 0 + 6 = 6 E8 = E7 + t7, 8 = 8 + 4 = 12
E3 = E1 + t1, 3 = 0 + 2 = 2 E9 = Max { (Ei + ti, 9); i = 4, 6 }
E4 = Max { (Ei + ti, 4); i = 1, 3 } = Max { (E4 + t4, 9); (E6 + t6, 9) }
= Max { (E1 + t1, 4); (E3 + t3, 4) }; = Max { (13 + 6); (17 + 3) } = 20
= Max { (0 + 13); (2 + 10) } = 13 E10 = Max { (Ei + ti, 10); i = 8, 9 }
E5 = E2 + t2, 5 = 6 + 4 = 10 = Max { (E8 + t8, 10); (E9 + t9, 10) }
E6 = Max { (Ei + ti, 6) ; i = 2, 5 } = Max { (12 + 10); (20 + 5) } = 25
= Max { (E2 + t2, 6); (E5 + t5, 6) }
= Max { (6 + 9); (10 + 7) } = 17

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Exercise

Backward Pass Method -


4
Latest Times for Events
14
14

H (10)
4
1 1 3 6 9 10
G (2) Dummy L (3) M (5)
0 2 4 17 17 17 20 20 25 25
0
10
2 8 B (4) 5

6 6 10
9

7 8 15
E (4)
11 11 15

Exercise
Calculations: Backward Pass Method:

L10 = E10 = 25 L4 = L9 – t4, 9 = 20 – 6 = 14


L9 = L10 – t9, 10 = 25 - 5 = 20 L3 = L4 - t3, 4 = 14 – 10 = 4
L8 = L10 – t8, 10 = 25 – 10 = 15 L2 = Min { (Lj – t2, j); j = 5, 6, 7 }
L7 = L8 – t7, 8 = 15 – 4 = 11 = Min { (L5 – t2, 5); (L6 – t2, 6); (L7 – t 2, 7) }
L6 = L9 – t6, 9 = 20 – 3 = 17 = Min { (10 - 4); (17 - 9); (11 – 2) } = 6
L5 = L6 – t5, 6) = 17 – 7 = 10 L1 = Min { (Lj - t1, j ); j = 2, 3, 4 }
= Min { (L2 – t 1, 2); (L3 – t1, 3); L4 – t1, 4) } }
= Min { (6 - 6); (4 - 2); (14 – 13) } = 0

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Exercise

Earliest and Latest Times


4 Superimposed
13 14

1 G (2) 3 Dummy 6 L (3) 9 M (5) 10


0 0 2 4 17 17 20 20 25 25

2 B (4) 5
6 6 10 10

7 E (4) 8
8 11 12 15

Summary

Earliest Times Latest Times


Activity Duration
Start Finish Start Finish
i–j ti j Ei Ei + ti j Lj – ti j Lj

1-3 2 0 2 2 4
1-4 13 0 13 1 14
2-6 9 6 15 8 17
2-7 2 6 8 9 11
3-4 10 2 12 4 14
4-9 6 13 19 14 20
7-8 4 8 12 11 15
8-10 10 12 22 15 25

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Critical Path

4
13 14

H (10)

1 3 6 9 M (5) 10
0 0 G (2) 2 4 17 17 L (3) 20 20 25 25

2 5
6 6 B (4) 10 10

7 8 : Critical path

8 11 E (4) 12 15 A-B-C-L-M : Critical Path


Duration: 6+4+7+3+5 = 25

Critical Path

• Critical Activities:
Certain activities in a network diagram of a project are called critical
activities because delay in their execution will cause further delay in the
project completion time. Thus, all activities having zero total float value
are identified as critical activities
• Critical Path:
It is the sequence of critical activities that form a continuous path between
the start of the project and its completion. This is critical in the sense that
if any activity in this sequence is delayed, the completion of entire project
will be delayed.

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Critical Path

• Critical Path: (contd.)


The critical path in a network diagram can be identified as:
a) For all activities (i, j) lying on the critical path , at tail and head
events, the E-values and L-values are equal i.e.,

Ej = Lj and Ei = Li

b) On critical path, Ej – Ei = Lj – Li = ti j

AON Network

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AON Network - Precedence Diagrams


• A precedence diagram must be constructed with careful thought to
ensure that it shows as accurately as possible the logical
relationships and interdependencies of each activity or task with
all the others in the project.
Activities (Or Tasks)

Dura • Adjoining Figure shows the notation commonly used


ES EF
tion
for an activity in precedence notation
Activity ID No. &
description • Figure M04-5 is the precedence equivalent of the arrow
Total
LS LF diagram in Figure M04-2.
float
• The numbers in brackets in each activity box in Figure

An activity in M04-5 indicate the equivalent arrows in Figure M04-2.


precedence notation

Exercise
Acti
Description Predecessors Duration
vity
A Organise sales office - 6
B Hire salesmen A 4
C Train salesmen B 7
D Select advertising agency A 2
E Plan advertising campaign D 4
F Conduct advertising campaign E 10
G Design package - 2
H Setup packaging facilities G 10
I Order stock from manufacturer - 13
J Package initial stocks I, H 6
K Select distributors A 9
L Sell to distributors C, K 3
M Ship stocks to distributors J, L 5

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B) Precedence Diagrams
0 13 13 Legend
I (1-4) ES Duration EF
1 2 14
Activity ID

0 2 2 2 10 12 13 6 19 Slack /
LS LF
Float
G (1-3) H (3-4) J (4-9)
2 2 4 4 2 14 14 2 20
Finish
6 4 10 10 7 17 20 5 25 25 0 25
B (2-5) C (5-6) M (9-10) Finish (10-11)
6 2 10 10 2 17 20 2 25 25 25

Start
0 0 0 0 6 6 6 9 15 17 3 20
Start A(1-2) K (2-6) L (6-9)
0 0 0 0 0 6 8 0 17 17 2 20

6 2 8 8 4 12 12 10 22
D (2-7) E (7-8) F (8-10)
9 3 11 11 3 15 15 0 25

: Critical path

B) Precedence Diagrams

Activities (Or Tasks)


Activity
ES Duration EF ???

1 3 4 4 2 6 6 4 10
B (2-3) E (3-6) H (6-9)
3 2 6 6 2 8 8 2 12

0 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 4 7 5 12 12 3 15
A(1-2) C (2-4) F (4-7) I (7-9) K (9-10)
0 0 1 4 3 6 6 3 7 7 0 12 12 0 15

Start Finish
1 6 7 7 2 9 9 1 10
D (2-5) G (5-8) J (8-9)
Legend 1 0 7 9 2 11 11 2 12
ES Duration EF
LS Total LF
Activity ID
Float
LS
Slack /
LF
: Critical path
Float Figure M04A-5 :
Elements of a precedence critical path network diagram

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Slack and Float

Float / Slack

Slack & Float


• In project management, the terms slack and float describe the
length of time that an activity can be delayed without
delaying the finish date of a subsequent activity, or the finish
date of the entire project.
• The terms are most commonly applied to the Critical Path
Method of network analysis technique, which was developed
by the DuPont Corporation in 1957.

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Float / Slack

Slack versus Float


• The terms "slack" and "float" are often used interchangeably.
• The essential difference between the terms is that slack is
typically associated with inactivity, while float is associated
with activity.
• Slack time allows an activity to start later than originally
planned, while float time allows an activity to take longer
than originally planned..

Float / Slack
a) Total Float:
• It is the amount of time an activity may be delayed beyond its early start
without delaying the planned project finish date
• It is the time by which an activity may be delayed if all preceding activities
are completed at their earliest possible times and all subsequent activities
can be delayed until their latest permissible times
• The amount of total slack of activity “i-j “is calculated by subtracting the
earliest start time from latest start time
i.e., Total Slack = LSi – Max(EF of all preceding activities)

= LSi - ESi
Note: Using the corresponding finish times gives the same result
i.e., Total Slack = LFi – EFi

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Float / Slack
b) Free Slack / Float:
• For calculating the total float, only a particular activity is
considered with respect to its tail and head event occurrence times
or by considering the latest start and finish time of the activity with
respect to its earliest start and finish times.
• However, we may need to know how much an activity’s completion
time may be delayed without causing any delay in its immediate
successor activities; this defines free float of an activity

Note:
Total float can also be calculated as:
• Total float, TFi j = LSi j – ESi j = LFi j – EFi j
(For AON Network)
= (Lj – Ei ) – ti j

Float / Slack
b) Free Slack / Float: (contd.)
• Free slack / float is defined as the amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying the early start of any immediate following activities
• This is the amount of slack possessed by an activity if all preceding tasks take
place at their earliest times and the immediately succeeding activity can still
take place at its earliest possible time.
• Amount of free slack is calculated by subtracting earliest finish time of the
activity from the minimum of earliest start time of immediately succeeding
activities i.e.,
 Free slack = Min (ES of succeeding activities) – EF of the activity
• Positive Free slack can only arise when more than one network logic
constraint enters the immediately succeeding activity.
 In other words, succeeding activity has more than one preceding activity
and its earliest time is decided by another activity (For AON Network)

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Float / Slack

c) Remaining (Safety) Slack / Float:


• The amount of the original total slack that still remains after an
activity has been delayed due to either late progress, or intentional
rescheduling for want of resources (resources are constraints)
• Amount of remaining slack is calculated by subtracting maximum of
latest finish times of all predecessor activities from latest start time of
the activity i.e.,
 Safety Slack = LS of the activity - Max (EF of preceding activities)

(For AON Network)

Float / Slack

d) Independent Slack / Float:


• This is the amount of acceptable delay in the completion of an activity
so that it neither affects its predecessor nor the successor activities.
• Thus, independent float is the amount of time available when all
preceding activities are completed at their latest permissible times and
all the following activities are still started at their earliest possible times.
Independent float values for each activity, IFi j :

= (Ej – Li ) – ti j = (EFi j – LSi j ) – ti j


• The negative value of independent float is considered to be zero
• Independent slack / float is associated with just one activity, rather than
two or more
• Concept of Slacks are shown diagrammatically in the next slide
(For AON Network)

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Float

For Activity E
8 3 11
8 a) Total Float = 5 – 4 = 1 or
2 2 4 G
7 = 8–7 = 1
B 10 2 13

3 7 5 4 b) Free Float = Min(8, 9, 7) – 7


4 3 7 9 2 11
7 = 7–7 =0
3 E J
9
5 2 8 11 3 13 c) Remaining / Safety Float
1 2 3
D
7
7 2 9
= 5 - Max(4,3)
3 4 5 6 M = 5– 4=1
8 2 10
d) Independent Float
Legend = 7–5–3=-1
ES Duration EF
= 0
Activity ID
Total, Free, Remaining (Safety), (For AON Network)
Slack /
LS LF
Float and Independent Floats

Float
Total Float ( 1 )

Remaining / Safety Float ( 1 ) Free Float ( 0 )


[Based on preceding activities] [Based on succeeding activities]

2 B (2) 4 8 G (3) 11 13
3 B (2) 5 10 G (3)
(1) (1)
4 E (3) 7 9 J (2) 11 13
(1) 5 E (3) 8 11 J (2)
(0)
1 D (2) 3 3 7 M (2) 9
3 D (2) 5 8 M (2) 10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Weeks

: Based on Earliest Times : Based on Latest Times


(For AON Network)

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Float

Total Float Value

Negative i.e., L – E < 0 Zero i.e., L – E = 0 Positive i.e., L – E > 0


• Project completion is • Resources are just • Project completion
behind the schedule sufficient to is ahead of the
date, i.e., resources complete the schedule date, i.e.,
are not adequate and activity resources are
activity may not finish • Any delay in surplus
in time activity execution • These resources can
• This needs extra will necessarily be deployed
resources or certain increase the elsewhere or
activities need project cost execution of the
crashing in order activity can be
to reduce negative delayed, if required
float value

PERT Vs. CPM

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PERT Versus CPM


Description PERT CPM
Acronym for Programme Evaluation and Critical Path Method
Review Technique
Developed by A Research team (1956-58) to M/s E I DuPont company
help in the planning and along with M/s Remington
scheduling of the US Navy’s Rand Corporation
Polaris Missile project
Objective To efficiently plan and develop To provide a technique for the
the Polaris missile system control of the maintenance of
company’s chemical plants
Scope / Proved to be useful for all jobs or Extended to the field of cost
Outcome projects that have an element of and resources allocation
uncertainty in the estimation of
duration

PERT
PERT / CPM
Versus CPM

Description PERT CPM


Technique Event--oriented technique;
Event Activity--oriented technique;
Activity
followed emphasis is on the completion of emphasis is on individual
a task rather than individual activities required to be
activities required to be performed performed to reach a
to reach a particular event or task particular event or task
Application Basically a tool for planning and Basically a tool where the
control of time duration of each activity is
known with certainty

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PERT Versus CPM

Description PERT CPM


End use Used for one time projects that For completion of projects
are non-
non-repetitive in nature involving activities which are
(i.e., activities that may never repetitive in nature
have been performed before)
and where the estimates are
uncertain; Ex – redesigning an
assembly line, installing a new
MIS

PERT Versus CPM

Description PERT CPM


Expected In the absence of past data, three Only one estimate is used for
completion estimates are used to form a expected completion time of
time weighted average of the each activity – a deterministic
expected completion time of each approach
activity, based on the probability
distribution of completion times

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PERT Versus CPM

Description PERT CPM


Advantage Helps in identifying critical  Allows an explicit estimate of
areas in a project so that
costs in addition to time.
necessary adjustments
• suitable for establishing a
can be made to meet the
scheduled completion trade-off for optimum
date of project balancing between schedule
time and cost of the project

PERT Versus CPM

• CPM Objective
 to estimate the total project duration and
 to assign starting and finishing times to all activities
involved in the project.
• This helps to check the actual progress against the scheduled
duration of the project
• Duration of individual activities
 in case of CPM - uniquely determined
 in case of PERT - involves three time estimates, from which
the expected duration of an activity is computed

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Network Diagrams - Need

Significance of Using Network Diagram


1) A network diagram helps to translate highly complex projects into
a set of simple and logically arranged activities:
 Helps in the clarity of thought and action
 Provides valuable information and insight
 Helps in developing clear and unambiguous communication
from top to bottom and vice-versa among the people responsible
for executing the project

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Significance of Using Network Diagram


2) Detailed analysis of a network diagram helps project in-charge to peep into
the future because
 difficulties and problems that can be reasonably expected to crop up
during execution can be foreseen well ahead of its actual execution
 delays and hold ups during course of execution can be minimized ;
corrective action can also be taken well in time
 activities which need to be considered to compress project duration
and to meet deadlines can be identified and highlighted
 time lines can be drawn up - facilitates to decide issues like when
activities can start, should finish, whether can be delayed
 critical activities can be identified

Significance of Using Network Diagram


3) Isolates activities that control the project completion and therefore,
results in expeditious completion of the project
4) Provides an estimate of project duration
5) Helps in the division of responsibilities and therefore, enhance effective
coordination among different departments / agencies involved and for
meeting time, cost and performance objectives
6) Helps in timely allocation of resources to various activities in order to
achieve optimal utilization of resources
 forms a basis for scheduling labor and equipment

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End of Module-06(B)

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