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HUMAN-DOMINATED ECOSYSTEMS: ARTICLES
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50. D. Tilman and J. A. Downing, Nature 367, 363 61. C. H. Peterson, Aust. J. Ecol. 18, 21 (1993). Fig. 1. The relation between the spatial scale of
(1994). 62. M. E. Power et al., Bioscience 46, 609 (1996). natural and anthropogenic disasters and their ap-
51. R. M. Peterman and M. J. Bradford, Science 235, 63. We thank C. M. Dewees, M. E. Power, W. G. Pearcy, proximate expected time to recovery. Natural di-
354 (1987); R. M. Peterman, M. J. Bradford, N. C. H. S. R. Carpenter, D. R. Strong, G. Rose, F. Micheli, P. sasters are depicted in ellipses, and anthropogen-
Lo, R. D. Methot, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 45, 8 Mundy, M. Orbach, and M. Fogarty for helpful ic disasters are represented by rectangles. The
(1988). comments. J.C.C. and C.H.P. acknowledge sup-
52. E. Ostrom, Governing the Commons: The Evolution port by the Pew Charitable Trust. J.C.C. also
data used to construct the figure were taken from
simple logistic function with carrying ca- The size of the human population at equi-
pacity, given by the minimum amount of librium depends on the initial total area F0
S DS D
land h required to support an individual ah s
human. Technological and agricultural ad- F0 2
vances may also produce temporal changes d s1b
S D
P* 5 (8)
in this parameter (10), but the initial as- a
sumption is that it remains constant. The h 11
s1b
basic form of the model consists of four
coupled differential equations. The equilibrium results illustrate the sensi-
tivity of the resultant landscape to the rate
dF
5 sU 2 dPF (1) processes, which determine the duration of
dt time for which the land can be used for
dA agriculture (1/a) and the length of time it
5 dPF 1 bU 2 aA (2) takes to recover from degraded land to for-
dt est (1/s) (Fig. 3B). The most striking result
dU of this analysis is that as the length of time
5 aA 2 ~b 1 s!U (3) for which land can be used for agriculture
dt increases, the less forest remains in the final
dP A 2 hP landscape. This situation corresponds fairly
Fig. 3. (A) The transient dynamics of the model
5 rP (4) closely to Europe and the American prairies when an initial patch of 10,000 km2 of forest are
dt A
today. It would also apply to successful in- invaded by 50 people. Pristine forest declines and
This framework assumes that we start with dustrial areas, where one industry is suc- the area under agricultural land increases, as does
an initial area of forest F, which can be ceeded by another and derelict land is re- unused and unusable land that is slowly recover-
either the entire forest in a country or a used immediately. In contrast, when land ing to forest. (B) The relation between the period of
patch of forest connected to other patches in can only be used for agriculture for a short time for which land remains viable for agriculture
a spatial array. The loss of biodiversity from time and human population density is low, and the proportion of habitat remaining in its pris-
the original habitat can be modeled in a it is possible that significant amounts of tine (or recovered) state (large dots). The contours
number of different ways. In the simplest forest remain, a situation that corresponds illustrate the proportion of agricultural land in a
landscape: They are drawn for a range of times
case, assume that the total number of species to swidden agriculture in many tropical for-
that reflect different rates of recovery of degraded
NS of any taxon living in the habitat of area ests up until the early 20th century. In all land back into forest (solid line, 5 years; long dash-
A can be estimated using a simple power-law cases, increases in the land available to es, 10 years; intermediate dashes, 20 years; short
relation, NS 5 cAz (11) (c is a constant of agriculture will result from reductions in the dashes, 100 years).