Water for Food Production: Will There Be Enough in 2025?

Author(s): Sandra L. Postel

Source: BioScience, Vol. 48, No. 8 (Aug., 1998), pp. 629-637
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological
Sciences
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1313422
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 Water for Food Production:
Will There Be Enough in 2025?
Boosting the water productivity of world agriculture will be
crucial to meeting future food needs

Sandra L. Postel

his year marks the 200th an- per year from 1990 to 1995, approxi-
niversary of the publication mately one-half the rate of the previ-
of Thomas Malthus's famous The nature and severity ous four decades (Brown 1997). To-
essay postulating that human popu- of water constraints day, the principal difference between
lation growth would outstrip the those analysts projecting adequate food
earth's food-producing capabilities. remain ill defined, supplies in 2025 and those anticipat-
His writing sparked a debate that ing significant shortfalls is the assumed
has waxed and waned over the last hampering the level of productivity growth-specifi-
two centuries but has never disap- cally, whether annual productivity
peared completely. Stated simply, development of over the next three decades is likely
Malthus's proposition was that be- to grow at closer to the 1% rate of
appropriate
cause population grows exponentially water and the 1990s or the 2-2.5% rate of the
while food supplies expand linearly, previous four decades.
the former would eventually out-
agricultural strategies Water-along with climate, soil
pace the latter. He predicted that fertility, the choice of crops grown,
hunger, disease, and famine would and the genetic potential of those
the area planted in grain expanded by
only 17% (USDA 1996, 1997c). It crops-is a key determinant of land
result, leading to higher death rates.
One of the missing pieces in was a 141% increase in grainlandproductivity. Adequate moisture in
Malthus's analysis was the power of productivity, supplemented with the root zone of crops is essential to
science and technology to boost land greater fish harvests and larger live-achieving both maximum yield and
productivity and thereby push back stock herds, that allowed food sup-production stability from season to
season. A growing body of evidence
the limits imposed by a finite amount plies to keep pace with population and
suggests that lack of water is already
of cropland. It was only in the twen- diets for a significant portion of hu-
tieth century that scientific research manity to improve. constraining agricultural output in
led to marked increases in agricul- Despite this remarkable success, many parts of the world (Postel 1996,
tural productivity. Major advances, concern about future food prospectsUNCSD 1997). Yet to date, I am
such as the large-scale production of has risen in recent years because of aware
a of no global food assessment
nitrogen fertilizers and the breeding marked slowdown in the growth ofthat systematically addresses how
of high-yielding wheat and rice vari- world grain yields, combined with much water will be required to pro-
eties, have boosted crop yields and an anticipated doubling of globalduce the food supplies of 2025 and
enabled food production to rise along food demand between 1995 and 2025 whether that water will be available
with the world population (Dyson (McCalla 1994, FAO 1996). Whereas where and when it is needed. As a
1996). Between 1950 and 1995, hu- annual grain yields (expressed asresult, the nature and severity of
man numbers increased by 122% three-year averages) rose 2-2.5% per water constraints remain ill defined,
(US Bureau of the Census 1996), while year during every decade since 1950,which, in turn, is hampering the de-
they registered growth of only 0.7% velopment of appropriate water and
Sandra L. Postel (e-mail: spostel@ agricultural strategies.
per year during the first half of the
mtholyoke.edu) is a Pew Fellow in Con- In this article, I estimate the vol-
servation and the Environment and di- 1990s (Brown 1997, USDA 1997a,
1997b). Excluding the former Sovietume of water currently consumed in
rects the Global Water Policy Project in
Amherst, MA 01002-3440. Her researchUnion, where the political breakup producing the world's food, how
focuses on international water and much additional water it will take to
and economic reforms led to large
drops in productivity, global grain satisfy new food demands in 2025,
sustainability issues. ? 1998 American
Institute of Biological Sciences.yields increased an average of 1.1% and how much of this water will

August 19989629

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Table 1. Estimated water consumption by crops worldwide, 1995.a being equal, C4 crops, such as maize,
tend to use water more efficiently
Estimated than other grains because of their
Water-use efficiency water special anatomical and biochemical
Global production of harvested yieldb requirement
Crop (x 1000 t) (kg/m3) (km3/yr)
characteristics. A crop grown in a
drier climate will transpire faster than
Wheat 541,120 0.8-1.0 601 the same crop grown in a more hu-
Rice 550,193c 0.7-1.1 611
mid climate because of the larger
Maize 514,506 0.8-1.6 429
Other grains 290,236 - 0.6-1.2 323 vapor pressure gradient between the
Roots and tubers 609,488 - 4.0-7.0 111 plant's stomata and the atmosphere.
Pulses 55,997 0.2-0.6 140 Thus, the volume of water a given
Soybeans 125,930 0.4-0.7 229 crop uses will vary by crop type,
Other oilseeds 125,749 0.2-0.6 314 climate, season, and other factors,
Ground nuts 27,990 0.6-0.8 40
Vegetables and melonsd 487,287 - 10.0 49 but the basic linear relationship be-
Fruits (except melons)d 396,873 - 3.5 113 tween dry matter production and
Sugar canee 1,147,992 5.0-8.0 177 transpiration generally holds for all
Sugar beetse 265,963 6.0-9.0 36 crops and growing environments
Tobacco 6,447 0.4-0.6 13
Other' 21 (Kramer and Boyer 1995).
In determining the amount of water
Total 3207 consumed in producing the global food
supply, several additional factors
aData must be taken into account.
from FA Water is
bThe midpoints
consumed not only through transpi-
efficiency values
reasonable ration but also through evaporation
assu
a tilde from the soil and leaf surfaces. Un-
(-).
cRough der field conditions, evaporation
rice; to is
dStatistics on
difficult fr
to measure separately from
reported data ex
substantial
transpiration, so in
the processes are s
1996) has typically referred to jointly as evapo-
attemp
these transpiration. In addition, because
estimates
on known only the edible portion of a crop
values
water requireme
contributes to food supplies, the
eValues are for p
of sugar,
portion of a crop's dry matter that is a
beets
fCoconuts, actually harvested
olives (known as the
crops are harvest index) must also be taken into b
little
affect theaccount. The water-use efficiency of
global
the harvested yield is expressed as the
likely
fed lands do not require investments
need harvested crop yield per unit of water t
I in dams, canals, and other water
then placeevapotranspired and is often denoted
infrastructure and do not figure intoby Ey.in
demand These values are shown th in
regional water availability and Table 1, along with the total 1995
projected demands on regional wa-
trends. Finally, I discuss the policy ter supplies. Yet it results in an in-production of each crop or crop cat-
and investment implications that complete and misleading picture of egory. Lacking detailed regional data,
emerge from the analysis. the volume of water actually used tothe estimated global crop water re-
produce the world's food-and, byquirements shown in Table 1 were
Total water consumed in extension, of future water require-derived by multiplying the inverse of
ments for food production. the midpoint of the Ey value for each
food production
crop or crop category by the 1995
The volume of water consumed in Water consumed by crops and crop-global production of that crop. This
is In general, there is a linearcalculation results in an estimated
lands.
producing current food supplies
much larger than estimates of agri- relationship between a crop's water minimum water requirement for the
cultural water use typically suggest.consumption and its dry matter yield 1995 global harvest of crops of ap-
These estimates have focused almost up to the point at which water is noproximately 3200 km3 (3200 billion
exclusively on the volume of water longer limiting (Sinclair et al. 1984).cubic meters).
removed from rivers, lakes, and un-The amount of dry matter produced Not surprisingly, wheat, rice,
derground aquifers for irrigation.per unit of water transpired-whichmaize, and other grains-the staples
They typically neglect the soil mois-is known variously as a crop's water-of the human diet and also sources of
ture derived directly from rainfall use efficiency or transpiration ra- feed for livestock-account for more
that is consumed by agricultural crop- tio-is the slope of this linear rela-than 60% of the total crop evapo-
ping systems, pastures, and grazingtionship, and it varies by crop, transpiration requirement. Soybeans
lands. This omission is perhaps un- climate, and other factors. For ex- and other oilseed crops account for
derstandable, given that such rain- ample, climatic and other conditions17% of this requirement, and sugar

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cane alone accounts for approximately Table 2. Total water consumed in food production, 1995.a
6%. It is important to emphasize that
the values in Table 1 do not reflect Activity Estimated water consumption (km3/yr)
how much water is actually consumed
Water consumed directly by crops and
in crop production but rather the
associated cropland biomass 7500
minimum required for that produc- Water consumed by converted pasture and
natural grazing land used by livestock 5800
tion. Inefficiencies in irrigation that
Non-beneficial evapotranspiration of irrigation
result in evaporative losses, for ex- waterb 500
ample, are not taken into account; I
Water consumed in aquaculture production Oc
address such additional consump-
tive uses of water in a later section. Total 13,800
The plants from which the world's
food commodities are harvested rep- aCalculations based
et al. (1996).
resent only a portion of total crop- bSee text for explan
land biomass. The net photosynthetic cNegligible on a gl
product of the world's croplands has
been estimated at 15 x 109 t/yr (Ajtay tion rate withdrawn (Perry
of 1996). Applying
2 g
et al. 1979, Vitousek et al. 1986). mated this
water
figure to the 1995 estimate of
co
Assuming that an average of 2 g bio- on pasture- irrigation withdrawals suggests an
un-
mass is produced per 1 L of water 5800 km3/yr productive evapotranspiration losses(T
evapotranspired (Monteith 1990, 1986, Postel et al. 1996). of 500 kmi3, as shown in Table 2.
Postel et al. 1996), a total of 7500 km3 Water also evaporates from ponds
would be consumed through evapo- Non-beneficial evapotranspiration of used in fish farming, an increasing
transpiration in cropland ecosys-irrigation water and from aquacul- source of protein worldwide. These
tems-more than twice the estimated ture ponds. Irrigated lands-those evaporation losses are difficult to
receiving artificial water applications estimate because aquaculture pro-
evapotranspiration of the crop plants
themselves (Table 2). Because cropto supplement natural rainfall-to- duction can occur in coastal bays or
production depends on the produc- taled 249.5 x 106 ha in 1994, the estuaries, indoor tanks, or artificial
tivity of the supporting ecosystem,
most recent year for which data are ponds. Currently, evaporation from
this higher figure may more accu- available (FAO 1996). Because irri- ponds is negligible relative to the
rately reflect the total amountgation
of makes possible more than one total water consumed in food pro-
water consumed through evapotrans-harvest a year on the same parcel of duction. Yet fish farming is growing
piration on the world's croplands.land and allows farmers greater con- rapidly: Aquaculture production
trol over the watering of their crops, tripled between 1984 and 1995, from
Water consumed by converted pas- these lands are disproportionately 7 x 106 t/yr to 21 x 106 t/yr, and in
important in global food produc- 1995 it accounted for 19% of the
ture and grazing land. The world's
1.3 they represent just 17% of the global fish harvest (McGinn 1997)
domesticated animals-including tion;
world's total cropland area but yield As aquaculture expands, pond evapo-
billion cattle, 900 million pigs, and
more than 12 billion chickens (FAO on the order of 40% of the world's ration will increase and may factor
1996)-contribute meat, milk, eggs, food (Rangeley 1987, Yudelman 1994). significantly into the water budgets
and other items to the human diet. Shiklomanov (1996) estimated of water-short areas.
Of the 2700 kilocalories available that in 1995 a total of approximately Summing the estimated volumes
per capita per day on average world-2500 km3 was withdrawn from riv- of water consumed by cropping sys-
wide (FAO 1995), approximately ers, lakes, and aquifers for irriga- tems, grasslands and pasture, and
16% comes from animal products. tion. However, a portion of this water non-beneficial evaporation of irriga-
However, this share varies greatly by never benefits a crop. Some of it is tion supplies yields an estimate of
country and region: For example, lost to evapotranspiration as the total water consumption for food
32% of the estimated 3410 calories water is stored in ponds or reser- production in 1995 of 13,800
per capita per day available in Eu- voirs, transported by canals, and km3/yr-or nearly 20% of the total
rope comes from animal products, applied to farmers' fields. Water per- annual evapotranspiration occurring
compared with just 7% of the aver- colating into the soil through un- on the earth's land surface. For the
age 2282 kilocalories per capita per lined canals or running off the end of 1995 population of 5.7 billion (PRB
a farmer's field also represents inef- 1995), this global total translates to
day available in Africa (FAO 1995).
ficiency and can degrade both land an annual average of approximately
Livestock variously eat grass, hay,
and water quality. But because this 2420 m3 per capita.
feed grain, and food waste. Although
the feed grain and food waste are water is not evapotranspired, it is
theoretically available to be used Changing structure of global
included in the crop production fig-
ures in Table 1, a separate calcula-
again and so is not counted as a loss. food sources
tion needs to be made to account for No good global estimate of non-
evapotranspiration on converted beneficial irrigation water losses ex- The structure and sources of the glo-
pasture and grazing land. Again, as- ists, but they may amount to ap- bal food supply in 2025 will not be
suming an average biomass produc- proximately 20% of the volume simply an extrapolation of past

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Table 3. Estimated 1995 crop consumption of rainwater and irrigation water and of rain-fed crops (Unger and Stewart
projections for 2025. 1983, Critchley 1991, Reij 1991).
Rain-fed production may also ben-
Projected global
crop evapo- Irrigation share of efit from greater focus on boosting
transpiration Supply directly Supply total crop output
from from the land-for
global cr
requirement from rainfall irrigation transpiration example, through agroforestry and
Year (km3/yr) (km3/yr) (km3/yr) requirement (%) synergistic intercropping-as op-
1995 3200 2300 900 28 posed to boosting the yields of single
2025 6400 3450 2950 46 crops.
Globally, the volume of water
Increase 100% 50% 227%
available for crop evapotranspira-
tion will need to roughly double by
trends. Serious constraints exist on virtually any other grain-fed source, 2025 if total crop production is to
the expansion of grazing land, fish- the expansion of aquaculture will double. Although actual crop water
eries, and cropland, which suggestsincrease pressures on both cropland requirements in 2025 will depend on
that most of the additional food re- and water supplies in the future. the crop mix, the climate under which
quired in the future will need to crops are grown, changes in the har-
come from higher productivity on Cropland constraints. With produc- vest index, and other factors, a dou-
existing cropland. This shift hastion from both rangelands and fish- bling is a reasonable assumption.
important implications for the vol- eries reaching natural limits, most ofBecause net cropland area is likely to
ume and sources of water that will the increased food supply in 2025 expand minimally if at all, I assume
be required to satisfy future food
will need to come from cropland.no increase in the water use of re-
needs. However, on a net basis, croplandlated cropland biomass and focus on
area is unlikely to increase apprecia- the direct evapotranspiration require-
Rangeland constraints. According to bly. As much as 107 ha may be lost ments of crops, an estimated 6400
a global assessment of soil degrada- each year due to erosion, other formskm3 in 2025.
tion (Oldeman et al. 1991), over- of degradation, or conversion to non- How this additional water for crop
grazing has degraded some 680 x 106farm uses (Leach 1995, Pimentel et evapotranspiration will be parti-
ha of the world's rangelands sinceal. 1995). Because such losses are tioned between rainfall and irriga-
midcentury. This finding suggestsoften not fully counted in official tion is impossible to project, espe-
that 20% of the world's pasture andstatistics-which show that croplandcially given that the current
range is losing productivity and willexpanded an average of 1.6 x 106 ha/ partitioning of the crop water supply
continue to do so unless herd sizes yr between 1979 and 1994 (FAO can be approximated only roughly.
are reduced or more sustainable live- 1996)-net cropland expansion However, if 40% of the global har-
stock practices are put into place. could well be close to zero or even vest currently comes from irrigated
With the global ruminant livestocknegative. Moreover, possibilitiesland for and if, on average, 70% of the
herd, now numbering about 3.3 bil- opening up new cropland are mostly soil moisture on this irrigated land
lion, unlikely to increase apprecia- in areas in which the long-term comes crop from irrigation water (the
bly, most of the increase in meat production potential is relativelyother low 30% comes directly from rain-
production will need to come fromand the biodiversity and other eco- fall), then irrigation water would
grain-fed livestock. logical costs are very high, such account
as in for about 900 km3 of the
Brazil and central Africa. 3200 km3 required for crop evapo-
Fisheries constraints. The wild fish transpiration in 1995; the other 2300
catch from marine and inland waters Implications for future water require-km3 would have been supplied di-
totaled 91 x 106 t in 1995, little more
ments. By definition, the water re- rectly from rainfall (Table 3). It seems
than in the late 1980s. On a per quirements of rain-fed crops are metreasonable to assume that modest
capita basis, the 1995 global fish by rainfall, which is supplied freely cropland expansion and enhanced
catch was down nearly 8% from the by nature and rarely counted in esti- rainwater productivity might allow
1988 peak (McGinn 1997). With the mates of global agricultural water productive use of rainfall for crop
United Nations Food and Agricul- use. With net cropland area unlikely evapotranspiration to increase by
ture Organization (FAO 1993) re- to expand much if at all, the poten- 50% between 1995 and 2025. To
porting that all 17 of the world's tial for increased use of direct rain- satisfy the global crop water req
major fishing areas have either fall to meet crop evapotranspiration ment in 2025, the volume of ir
reached or exceeded their natural requirements is limited largely to tion water consumed by crops w
limits, no growth can be expected improving
in the productivity of rain-thus need to more than triple-f
the oceanic catch. Aquaculture, water
the on existing croplands, both an estimated 900 km3 in 1995 to
most rapidly growing source of irrigated
fish, and rain-fed. Terracing, 2950 km3-and irrigation's share o
now accounts for one of every mulching,
five contour bunding (placingtotal crop water consumption wo
fish consumed, a share that isstones ex- or vegetation along contours),rise from 28% to 46%. The volume
pected to increase (McGinn 1997). and other methods of capturing rain-of irrigation water annually avail-
Although fish is a more water effi- water to enhance soil moisture have able to crops as soil moisture would
need to expand by 2050 km3-
cient source of animal protein than proven effective at increasing yields

632 BioScience Vol. 48 No. 8

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equivalent to the annual flow of 24 2025 could exceed 70%, up from
lands under irrigation. Together,
just over 50% at present, even spreading
Nile Rivers or 110 Colorado Rivers. with soil salinization and the
fairly optimistic assumptions about declining rate in the expansion of
Prospects for supplying thesupply expansion (Postel et al. 1996).
irrigation have contributed signifi-
Both the dams and other infrastruc- cantly to the decline in grain yield
needed irrigation water
ture built to meet the higher de- growth witnessed during the first
Current trends in water use and avail- mand, as well as the high level ofhalf of the 1990s.
ability strongly suggest that supply-human co-option of the supplies
ing an additional 2050 km3 per yearavailable, would cause much greater Regional signs of water depletion
for consumptive agricultural use on loss of valuable freshwater ecosys-and unsustainable use. Groundwa-
a sustainable basis will be extremelytem services (Postel and Carpenterter overpumping and aquifer deple-
difficult. A variety of trends and in-1997), further decline of fisheries, tion now plague many of the world's
dicators signal that water constraintsand more rapid extinction of species most important food-producing re-
on agriculture are already emerging,that depend on aquatic ecosystems. gions, including the north plain of
both globally and regionally. China, the Punjab of India, portions
Global irrigation trends. Worldwideof Southeast Asia, large areas of north
The global demand-supply outlook.growth of irrigated area has droppedAfrica and the Middle East, and much
Of the 40,700 km3 that run to the sea from an average of 2% per year of the western United States (Postel
each year in rivers and aquifers, onlybetween 1970 and 1982 to 1.3% per1996). Falling water tables not only
an estimated 12,500 km3 are actuallyyear between 1982 and 1994 and signal limits on the ability to expand
accessible for human use, of which shows no sign of picking up speed. future groundwater use but also in-
human activities already appropriate Rising construction costs for newdicate that a portion of the world's
an estimated 54% (Postel et al. 1996).irrigation projects and the decliningcurrent food supply depends on wa-
By 2025, water withdrawals for irri-number of ecologically and socially ter that is used unsustainably-and
gation could approach 4600 km3/yr,sound sites for the construction of therefore cannot be counted as a
assuming 3500 km3/yr of consump- dams and river diversions have led reliable portion of the world's long-
tive use (both beneficial and non- international donor institutions and term food supply. Saudi Arabia,
beneficial) and somewhat higher ir- governments to reduce irrigation in-which as recently as 1994 was pro-
rigation efficiency than at present. In vestments. Irrigation lending by theducing nearly 5 x 106 t of wheat by
addition, estimates by the Russianfour major donors-the World Bank,mining nonrenewable groundwater,
hydrologist Igor Shiklomanov (1993)the Asian Development Bank, the USillustrates this point well: When fis-
suggest that worldwide household,Agency for International Develop-cal problems led the government to
municipal, and industrial water usesment, and the Japanese Overseasreduce the subsidies that had propped
currently average approximately 240 Economic Cooperation Fund- up this unsustainable wheat produc-
m3/yr per capita. Greater use of more peaked in the late 1970s and dropped tion, Saudi grain output plummeted
efficient household and industrial by nearly half over the next decade 62% in two years, falling to 1.9 x 106 t
technologies could reduce this per (Rosegrant 1997). Governments in 1996 (USDA 1997a).
capita requirement substantially many Asian countries-includingMany of the planet's major rivers
(Postel 1992), but the resulting sav- China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, are showing signs of overexploitation
ings would be partially offset by the India, Indonesia, and Thailand-also as well, adding to the evidence that it
water needed to meet minimum cut back irrigation investments sub-will be difficult to greatly increase
drinking and household requirements agricultural water supplies. In Asia,
stantially during the 1980s. Although
of the more than 1 billion people where the majority of world popula-
private investment has countered this
now lacking them (Gleick 1996). trend somewhat, irrigation world- tion growth and additional food
Assuming an average globalwide per has been growing at a slower needs will be centered, many rivers
capita household, municipal, and pace are completely tapped out during the
in-than population: Per capita ir-
dustrial water use of 200 m3/yr, rigated
the area peaked in 1978 and fell drier part of the year, when irriga-
combined demand in these sectors tion is so essential. According to a
7% by 1994, the latest year for which
would total some 1640 km3 in 2025. data are available (Gardner 1997). World Bank study (Frederiksen et al.
Adding this amount to estimated ir- At the same time, the steady 1993), essentially no water is re-
rigation withdrawals and reservoir buildup of salts in irrigated soils is leased to the sea during a large por-
leading
losses suggests that global withdraw- to a decline in the productiv- tion of the dry season in many basins
ity of a portion of the existing irriga-in Asia. These include the Ganges
als in 2025 could total 6515 km3.
This estimate exceeds by 26%tion
thatbase. Estimates suggest thatand most rivers in India, China's
of Shiklomanov (1996), in largesalinization
part affects 20% of irrigatedHuang He (Yellow River), Thailand's
lands worldwide (Ghassemi et al. Chao Phraya, and the Amu Dar'ya
because of the higher global irriga-
1995) and may be severe enough on and Syr Dar'ya in central Asia's Aral
tion water requirement that emerges
10% of these lands to be reducingSea basin. The Nile River in north-
from the more detailed crop-water
analysis carried out in this study. yields. Spreading at a rate of upeast Africa and the Colorado River
crop
to 2 x 106 ha annually (Umali 1993),in southwestern North America dis-
Adding in greater instream flow
needs to dilute pollution, humansalinization is offsetting a portion ofcharge little or no freshwater to the
the gains
appropriation of accessible runoff in achieved by bringing newsea in most years (Postel 1996).

August 1998 633

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Table 4. Grain import dependence of African, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries the Endangered Species Act (ESA).
with per capita runoff of less than 1700 m3/yr.a This analysis also found that 235
counties contained irrigated land that
Internal runoff per Net grain imports as share drew water supplies from rivers har-
Country capita, 1995 (m3/yr)b of consumption (%)c
boring ESA-listed fish species. These
Kuwait 0 100
findings suggest that US irrigated
United Arab Emirates 158 100
Singapore 200 100
agriculture may face more wide-
Djibouti 500 100 spread water losses because of legal
Oman 909 100 obligations to protect species at risk.
Lebanon 1297 95
Jordan 249 91
Israel 309 87 Water, population, and
Libya 115 85 the global grain trade
South Korea 1,473 77
Algeria 489 70 Finally, a growing imbalance between
Yemen 189 66
population size and available water
Armenia 1673 60
Mauritania 174 58
supplies is eliminating the option of
Cape Verde 750 55 food self-sufficiency in more and
Tunisia 393 55 more countries. As annual runoff
Saudi Arabia 119 50 levels drop below 1700 m3 per per-
Uzbekistan 418 42
son, food self-sufficiency becomes
Egypt 29 40
Azerbaijan 1066 34 difficult, if not impossible, in most
Turkmenistan 251 27 countries. Below this level, there is
Morocco 1027 26 typically not enough water available
Somalia 645 26 to meet the demands of industries,
Rwanda 808 20
cities, and households; to dilute pol-
Iraq 1650 19
Kenya 714 15 lution; to satisfy other ecological
Sudan 1246 4 functions; and to grow sufficient food
Burkina Faso 1683 2 for the entire population. Thus, coun-
Burundi 563 2
tries begin to import water indirectly,
Zimbabwe 1248 2
Niger 380 1
in the form of grain.
South Africa 1030 -3 Of the 34 countries in Africa, Asia,
Syria 517 -4 and the Middle East that have an-
Eritrea 800 Not available
nual per capita runoff levels belo
1700 m3, all but two (South Africa
aFrom WRI (1994), FAO and(1995), and
Syria) are net grain importersU
bRunoff figures do not include river inflo
Only Armenia, Azerbaijan,
24 (70%)Djibouti,
of these countries alread
Ira
would have more than 1700 importm3 at least
per 20% of their grai
capita
were included. (Table 4). Collectively, their annu
net grain imports, averaged over
cRatio of annual net grain imports to grain consumption averaged over the period 1994-1996.
1994-1996, totaled 48 x 106 t, whic
Increasing competition for water. wealthier countries. In the United suggests that water scarcity is to som
Even as limits to tapping additionalStates, for example, the US Congress degree driving about one-fourth of
water supplies are appearing, agri- passed legislation in 1992 that dedi- the global grain trade. With approx
culture is losing some of its existingcates 987 x 106 m3 of water annually
mately 1500 m3 of water required t
water supplies to cities as populationfrom the Central Valley Project growin 1 t of grain in these countrie
growth and urbanization push up ur- California, one of the nation's larg-
(higher than the global average be-
ban water demands. The number of est federal irrigation projects, to of the higher evapotranspira
cause
urban dwellers worldwide is likelymaintaining
to tion rates in drier climates; FAO
fish and wildlife habitat
and other ecosystem functions.
double to 5 billion by 2025. This trend 1997), these annual grain imports
will increase pressure to shift water Among the objectives of the Central
represent 72 km3 of water.
out of agriculture to supply drinking Valley Project Improvement ActAsispopulations grow, per capita
water to growing cities, as is alreadyrestoring the natural production water
of supplies will drop below 1700
happening in China, the western salmon and other anadromous fish m3 per year in more countries, and
United States, parts of India, and to twice their average levels overcountries
the that are already on the list
other water-short areas. past 25 years (Gray 1994). of so-called water-stressed countries
In addition, rising public concern Further evidence of heightenedwill acquire more people. By 2025,
10 more African countries will join
about the loss of fisheries, the ex-competition for irrigation water
tinction of aquatic species, and the the list, as will India, Pakistan, and
comes from a county-level analysis
overall decline of freshwater ecosys-of the 17 western US states (Moore several other Asian nations; China
tems is generating political pressureet al. 1996), which found agricul- will only narrowly miss doing so.
tural activities to be a factor in the
to shift water from agriculture to the Given current population projections
natural environment, particularly decline
in (PRB 1997), the total number of
of 50 fish species listed under

634 BioScience Vol. 48 No. 8

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people living in water-stressed Afri- Table 5. Number of people in African, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries wit
can, Asian, and Middle Eastern coun- capita runoff of less than 1700 m3/yr, 1995, with projections for 2025.a
tries will climb 6.5-fold by 2025,
from approximately 470 million to Population
more than 3 billion (Table 5). With Region 1995 (x 106) 2025 (x 106) Factor increase
nearly 40% of the projected 2025 Africa 295 908 3.1
population living in countries whose Asia 86 1957 22.8
Middle East 86 185 2.1
water supplies are too limited for
food self-sufficiency, dependence on Total 467 3050 6.5
grain imports is bound to deepen
and spread.
aFrom WRI (1994), FA

Conclusions and implications creasingly the Texasimportan

High Plains has shown
security.substantial
Whether water savings with low- t
Water availability will be a serious zoning orpressureother
sprinklers that deliverme wa-
constraint to achieving the food re- premium ter close to the soil surface rather
protection
quirements projected for 2025. The Clearly, than
greater
in a high-pressure spray eff(High
need for irrigation water is likely to to raise Plains Underground
the water Water Conser-
pro
be greater than currently anticipated, global crop
vation Districtbase,
1996). Water pro- bo
and the available supply of it less irrigated. ductivity gains of 20-30% or more
Boosting
than anticipated. Groundwater ductive use of
are not uncommon rain
when farmers
overdrafting, salinization of soils, evapotranspiration shift to more efficient irrigation prac
and re-allocation of water from agri- this analysis, tices. Worldwide, however, such
will be ef
culture to cities and aquatic ecosys- scale water harvest
ficiency measures have spread slowly
tems will combine to limit irrigated bunding,relative and other
to their potential because of
crop production in many important neling and storing
high upfront r
capital costs, relatively
food-producing regions. At the samecrease soil moisture will be crucial. low crop prices, and heavy govern-
time, more and more countries will Successful examples of these typesment of subsidies that artificially lowe
see their populations exceed the levelprojects in Africa (Critchley 1991),irrigation water prices.
that can be fully sustained by avail-India (Centre for Science and Environ-Improving the water-use efficiency
able water supplies. ment 1997), and elsewhere suggest of crops, shifting the mix of crops
The common presumption thatgreater potential for drought-proof- and breeding crop varieties that are
international trade will fill emerginging and increased rain-fed produc- more salt tolerant and drought resis
food gaps deserves more careful scru-tion than has been realized to date. tant may also increase agricultura
tiny. With each 1 t of grain repre- water productivity. These gains d
Improving irrigation efficiency can
senting approximately 1000 t of wa- also increase agricultural water pro- not come easily, however, because
ter, water-stressed countries will ductivity. The estimated 500 km3 drawbacks
of can negate the potential
increasingly turn to grain imports tounproductive evaporation of irriga- benefits. For example, crop varieties
balance their water budgets. The tion water theoretically represents that perform well under cooler tem
majority of people living in water- potential water savings sufficientperatures
to may produce higher yield
stressed countries in 2025 will be in
grow 450 x 106 t of wheat, althoughper unit of water consumed but hav
Africa and South Asia, home to most
only a portion of these losses could
a lower harvest-index potential (Sin-
of the 1 billion people who are cur- clair et al. 1984). Moreover, a good
realistically and economically be cap-
rently living in acute poverty (UNDP
tured. These savings increase the ef-
portion of the potential for improving
1996) and the 840 million people who
fective water supply without the need
crop water-use efficiency may already
are currently malnourished (FAO to build additional reservoirs or ex- have been exploited. For example,
tract more groundwater. For ex-
1996). It is questionable whether ex- breeders have already shortened th
portable food surpluses will be both
ample, researchers at the Sri Lanka- maturation time for irrigated ric
sufficient and affordable for poor based International Irrigation varieties from 150 days to 110 days,
food-importing countries. Management Institute found thatsubstantially increasing that crop's
Given the limited potential foreliminating the flooding of rice fieldswater efficiency (IRRI 1995).
prior to planting reduced water use Finally, more equitable distribu-
sustainable increases in cropland area
and the mounting barriers to ex- by 25% (Seckler 1996). The portion tion of food may be necessary to
satisfy the basic nutritional needs o
panding irrigated area, measures are of this reduction resulting from lower
urgently needed to ensure that the evaporative losses represents trueall people as water constraints on
best rain-fed land now in production water savings and effectively in-agriculture increase. For the past
remains in production. Rain-fed land creases the available supply. three decades, the share of the world's
does not compete directly with ur- Efficient sprinklers, drip systems,
grain supply fed to livestock has con-
ban and industrial uses for water in and other methods of delivering irri-sistently ranged between 38% and
the way that irrigated land does. gation
In a water more directly to the 40% (Brown 1996). This large
world of deepening water scarcity, roots of crops can also reduce un- amount of grain-and, indirectly,
rain-fed land will thus become in- productive evaporation. Research in water-could be used more produc-

August 1998 635

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All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 . 1997. The agricultural link: How York: W.W. Norton.
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