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 Arvind Receommendations Hyderabad(Sep 2018)
Timken India CMP: 600 Target: 900 Upside: 50% Time: 12-18 Months

Merger of ABC bearings in to Timken India provides synergies in terms of increased market
share from the current 45% levels in tapered roller bearings along with entry in to wheel end
bearings segment.

Post Merger, ABC will gain access to Timken’s manufacturing technology and may witness
increased capacity utilization levels, improved quality thus improved pricing power.

Recent capacity expansions of Timken, one in Jamshedpur plant to cater to increased demand
from Indian railways and the other in expanding the 0.8” tapered roller bearings have become
operational and the capex outlay was around Rs. 185 Cr.

With export revenue of 35%, Timken is the main beneficiary of increasing class 8 truck sales in
North America.

Domestic drivers like modernization of railway coaches & wagons, DFC and new markets like
Indian Navy augurs well for Timken in terms of incremental revenue.

Timken is nearly debt free and enjoys access to technological knowhow of its parent company.
Historically, it also enjoyed a healthy profitability & return ratios, with a strong revenue growth
owing to capacity expansions and cost rationalizations.

Valuation: In view of Timken’s focus on growing both organically & inorganically, higher budgetary
allocation to railways, auto industry revival, positive industry sentiment, we believe Timken is well
positioned to grow in the near future. While maintaining our positive view on the company’s
operational performance, we value the company at 37x to FY20E EPS of Rs. 22.0 and recommend a
“BUY” rating with a target price of Rs. 900.

YE Mar (Rs Million) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Sales 11097 10562 12340 13014 14836

EBITDA 1622 1580 1633 2048 2562

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.6% 15.0% 13.2% 15.7% 17.3%

Adj. Net Profit 948 972 920 1167 1495

EPS (Rs.) 13.5 14.3 13.5 17.2 24.0

RoE (%) 19.6% 16.9% 13.9% 15.7% 17.8%

PE (x) 31.3 45.1 52.1 35.5 27.7

 Arvind Receommendations Hyderabad(Sep 2018)
Talbros Automotive Ltd CMP: 254 Target: 360 Upside: 41% Time: 12-18 Months

The order book for forgings stand at Rs.1600 Mn as on FY18 constituting a major portion from exports.
We estimate revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% during FY18-20E and have kept our estimates
unchanged for FY19E and FY20E. Earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of 33.8% and RoE is expected
to increase by 383 bps by FY20E.

Outlook: Standalone gasket business is expected to gain traction on the back of improving share of
business with OEMs and new export orders. We expect gasket (standalone) business to grow at a CAGR
of 11% during FY18-20E. Moreover, we believe that Maruti Suzuki’s (MSIL) performance will help in
Talbros’s JV growth as they are one of the major clients for control arms and hose business.

Joint Venture Performance:

Nippon Leakless (60:40 JV): Revenue for Q1FY19 came in at Rs. 130 Mn as compared to ~Rs. 117 Mn
during Q1FY18 (~11.0% growth YoY) driven by improving demand for HMSI (Honda Motors and Scooters
India Ltd) and Hero Moto Corp. Volume growth of Hero and HMSI during Q1FY19 recorded 14% and 15%
YoY respectively.

Magneti Marelli (50:50 JV): Revenue for Q1FY19 was Rs. 160 Mn vs. Rs. 114 Mn during Q1FY18, higher
by 40% YoY, driven by increased share of business in the control arms division with Maruti Suzuki India
Ltd (MSIL) as Talbros is a single source of supply for Baleno and Brezza. The estimated revenue from
MSIL for control arms is Rs. 240 Mn per annum.

Talbros Marugo Rubber (50:50 JV): Revenue for Q1FY19 came in at Rs. 60 Mn as compared to Rs. 45 Mn
during Q1FY18 posting a 33% growth YoY driven by higher supply of hoses to MSIL and Marugo Rubber,
Japan. We expect revenue of Talbros Marugo to grow at a CAGR of 20% during FY18-20E.

Valuation and Outlook: We value Talbros at P/E of 12.0x for FY20E EPS of Rs. 30.1 for a target price of
Rs. 360, on the back consistent order inflows and improving RoE. The 5-year average fwd P/E is 9.0x.

YE Mar (Rs Million) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Sales 3919 4281 3930 4676 5437

EBITDA 382 479 408 526 611

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.7 11.2 10.4 11.2 11.2

Adj. Net Profit 97 196 207 292 371

EPS (Rs.) 7.9 15.9 16.8 23.6 30.1

RoE (%) 7.5 14.3 12.9 15.2 16.7

PE (x) 38.4 19.0 18.0 11.0 8.6

 Arvind Receommendations Hyderabad(Sep 2018)
V Mart CMP: 2640 Target: 3450 Upside: 31% Time: 12-18 Months

Management expects full year growth would be driven by 1) Better Rural economy as a result of good
monsoons and higher Minimum Selling Price (MSP) on food grains 3) Government spending as a result of
upcoming elections. We still see V-Mart as a dominant player in the fashion Retail segment posting
higher margins and Return Ratios.

Gaining Market Share to be the leader in Value fashion: The company is eyeing on capturing the
biggest market share in organized retail. As a strategy it is operating in a cluster based philosophy in the
states of UP, Bihar, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand where they are the leaders in value segment. There is
huge density of population in these states. Moreover, the recent announcement of higher MSP would
indirectly help in the growth of the company as the source of income of majority of the population in
these states is Agriculture.

Better Volume SSG on the back of increased Store Count and footfall: The company is expanding its
retail space by 15-17% adding 30-35 stores every year. It is expected that the company will reach a store
count of about 240 by the end of FY20E. Over the past five years, the company has maintained SSG of
8%-9% and targets to maintain the same over the future.

Private labels’ share: Private labels account for 52% of the total Revenue. The company is planning to
increase its private label’s share to 80% in the future, not to increase the margins but to maintain a loyal
customer base and provide its customers with unique products.

Valuation: Organized Retail accounts for only 5% of the Retail industry in India. Thus, there is huge
opportunity for the organized retail to grow. The company is continuously adding 30-35 stores in a year
with a focus on Tier-4 towns where competition is lower. We expect the company to generate top-line /
bottom-line growth of 19.3%/17.6% CAGR over FY18-20E. We recommend a BUY rating valuing it at 55x
FY20E EPS with a target price of Rs. 3450.

YE Mar (Rs Million) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Sales 8093 10017 12224 14597 17406

EBITDA 620 848 1328 1609 1867

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.7 8.5 10.9 11.0 10.7

Adj. Net Profit 276 439 777 934 1075

EPS (Rs.) 15.3 24.3 42.9 51.5 62.7

RoE (%) 12.2 16.3 20.4 20.8 21.1

PE (x) 33.6 33.9 44.2 51.5 44.7

 Arvind Receommendations Hyderabad(Sep 2018)
Bharat Forge CMP: 620 Target: 800 Upside: 29% Time: 12-18 Months

The Company is currently witnessing a strong demand for its products in international market. On
domestic front, especially in CV segment, demand might remain volatile in short term due to the recent
regulatory change in axle load norms. However, the Indian CV market demand remains intact. The
Company has received new orders worth ~Rs4bn during the quarter. Given the robust business outlook,
BFL has planned to set up a Aluminum Forging facility in Tennessee, USA at a cost of $55mn apart from
two major expansion plans in India.
Domestic business on Sound Footing: During Q1FY19 BFL’s domestic business (42% of sales) grew by
19.3%. Going forward its domestic auto business is expected to be driven by robust demand for MHCV
in India on account of a) BS-VI emission norm changes to be effective from 1st April 2020 b) replacement
demand and c) the government’s push towards infrastructure development. At the same time its
domestic industrial business is expected to sustain growth owing to pickup in the infrastructure activity.
International business outlook promising: During Q1FY19 BFL’s international business (58% of sales)
grew by 25.8%. With improving industry fundamentals and increased freight demand, the US Class 8
market and European truck market is expected to stay robust. At the same time, North American Oil &
Gas industry continues to remain robust on the back of increased activity in the shale gas industry
supporting BFL’s international industrial business.
New Orders: During Q1FY19, BFL secured new business orders worth Rs1.2bn across its export and
domestic markets. Its German operations, CDP BF have also secured a multi-year €40mn business order
for supply of Aluminum Forgings for a global premium vehicle manufacturer.
Capacity Expansion in core business: Given the robust business outlook, BFL has undertaken an
expansion of its forging and machining capacity by investing Rs4bn. It is also setting up a Greenfield
facility at Nellore for auto and industrial components. As a part of its focus on enhancing its presence in
the light material space, the Company has planned to set up a Aluminum Forging facility in Tennessee,
USA at a cost of $55mn . This facility is likely to address requirement of the North American car market
and will commence production in CY20.
YE Mar (Rs Million) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Sales 43338 38647 53160 62602 70746

EBITDA 13168 10726 15368 18160 20593

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.4 27.8 28.9 29.0 29.1

Adj. Net Profit 7018 5471 8405 10306 12273

EPS (Rs.) 15.1 11.7 18.0 22.1 19.1

RoE (%) 19.7 13.9 19.0 20.3 20.3

PE (x) 41.9 53.8 35.0 28.2 32.7

 Arvind Receommendations Hyderabad(Sep 2018)
ITD Cementation CMP: 120 Target: 190 Upside: 58% Time: 12-18 Months

ITD Cementation (ITD Cem) is engaged in the construction of marine structures, highways, bridges &
flyovers, metros, airports, hydro-tunneling, dams & canals, water & waste water segment, industrial
structures & buildings. Italian Thai Development Company Ltd currently owns 46.64% along with
institution holding of 32.38%. ITD Cem is the only construction company with a sustained presence in
India with MNC parentage (ITD). ITD Cem operates through various JVs and subsidiaries like ITD
Cementation Projects India, ITD Cemindia JV, and ITD-ITD Cem JV etc.

Order Book: The current order book stands at Rs. 90555 Mn spread across segments as of Q1FY19 with
a skew towards urban infrastructure. ITD Cem is L1 in another Rs. 14000 Mn orders. ITD Cem’s order
book is dominated by PSUs (71%) & Government (23%) and private players constitute 6% of the orders.
Major ongoing projects:

• Construction of 10 elevated stations for Nagpur metro - Rs. 4457 Mn

• Design & construction of stations for Mumbai metro - Rs. 11320 Mn
• Multi Modal IWT terminal for Haldia- West Bengal - Rs. 5,174 Mn
• Improving CU of OR-I & OR-II Berths for Vizag Port - Rs. 1,677 Mn
• Design & Construction of Viaduct for Nagpur metro - Rs. 3,722 Mn
• 4 main projects - Construction of elevated structures for Bangalore metro - Rs. 6,895 Mn, Rs.
6,838 Mn, Rs. 4,855 Mn & Rs. 5,114 Mn
• Construction of 8 Elevated Stations for Nagpur metro - Rs. 3,103 Mn
• Establishment of Captive Coal Jetty, Breakwater and Conveyor System for Udangudi Thermal
Power Project for TANGEDCO - Rs. 17,182 Mn
• Development of S&D Network in Churial Extension Canal sub basin and construction of Churial
Extension Pumping Station for KEIIP - Rs. 2,370 Mn
• Range of works for Nuclear Power Corporation of India - Rs. 1,223 Mn
• Laying Sewage Trunk main from Wadaj Circle on Riverfront of AMC Area - Rs. 1,037 Mn
L1 projects
• Development of refit jetty and allied facilities at Port Blair for Andaman Lakshadweep Harbour
Works (ALHW) worth 2,960 mn
• Design, Construction, Manufacturing, supply, installation, testing& commissioning of Ballastless
track wok in main line for Line-7 Corridor [Andheri (East)-Dahisar (East)] of Mumbai Metro Rail
Project of MMRDA worth 1,103 mn
• Execution of Civil Engineering works for underground construction of RCC box tunnel including
Biman Bandar Station using diaphragm wall, H-pile, plunge pile etc. and allied works from Ch.
5.780 km to CH. 6.411 km by Cut and Cover method for four to five tracks in connection with
extension of Kolkata Metro Railway from Noapara to Barasat via Bimanmandar, Kolkata worth
4,985 mn.
 Arvind Receommendations Hyderabad(Sep 2018)
HG Infra CMP: 230 Target: 350 Upside: 52% Time: 12-18 Months

HG Infra Engineering (HG) is an EPC company with focus on highways, roads and bridges in addition to
civil works and water supply projects. It has been a sub-contractor for established players like L&T, Tata
Projects and IRB Infra. Strong and persistent execution has helped it transform from a sub-contractor to
a frontline EPC bidder. HG has grown to pre-qualify for projects up to Rs 11.2/16.0bn in EPC/HAM
respectively. The transformation is visible, with HG quadrupling its revenues over FY13-18.

• Robust balance sheet: After the Rs 3bn IPO in Mar-18 and a portion being utilized towards
debt reduction, we expect HG’s net D/E to reduce from 1.1x in FY17 to 0.2x by FY19E. With
stable EBITDA margins ~14-15%, tight control on finance costs (FY19/FY20E interest
coverage – 6.4/7.0x), HG should deliver 38.3% FY18-20E EPS CAGR with PAT multiplying
1.9x.
• Consistent WC cycle: HG’s NWC cycle is one of the best in the industry and has averaged
between 40-65days over FY13-17 (FY18 NWC of 96 days is an outlier as execution was
skewed sharply towards 4QFY18 – Rs 5.0bn). Along with execution, the low debtor days (25-
50days over FY13-17; 73days in FY18) are also attributable to a large part of backlog from
NHAI/State Govt. with good payment terms.
• Sub-contracting at lucrative margins: With HG now capable of independently winning big ticket
road projects, it will bid conservatively. This can also be seen in the recent Rs 11.7bn IRB win
where it provided a support bid at the pre-bid stage only.
• HAM: With >50% of big ticket NHAI projects expected to be under HAM and with HG
prequalified to bid independently, we expect HG to further add to its order backlog post the
recent Gurgaon-Sohna package win of Rs 6.1bn.
• Near-term outlook: With (1) A steady flow of awards in the roads segment, (2) ~3.3x book to bill
(excl. post FY18 wins) (FY18 revenue), (3) Steady 14-15% EBITDA margins and (4) Stable
finance costs, we expect HG to post a 38% earnings CAGR over FY18-20E. This translates into
>20% RoE and 17-20% RoIC over FY19-20E.
 Kutumba Rao
Recommendations Hyderabad (Sep 2018)
1. Chombond Chemicals Limited

Chombond chemicals limited, is a manufacturer of a range of

specialty chemicals such as water treatment polymers construction
chemicals, high performance coatings. Animal nutrition's and industrial
biotech products the company's segments include specialty chemicals
and water treatment plant its divisions include water technologies.
Polymers, trading, Construction chemicals, coatings and biotechnology
it offers a range of water treatment chemicals, Such as boiler water
treatment chemicals, membrane treatment chemicals. Raw water and
effluent treatment polymers and defoamers it offers a range of
products, Such as admixtures for concrete, Sealants, grouts, Concrete
curing compounds, file fixing adhesives and waterproofing chemicals
for applications in concrete modification. Waterproofing, repair and
rehabilitation of structures the company offers a range of products,
such as surface tolerant coatings, Food grade coatings, Anti-
carbonation coatings and elastomeric coatings.

Current price: Rs. 340

Target price: Rs. 750

Time frame: 16-24 months.

 Kutumba Rao
Recommendations Hyderabad (Sep 2018)
2. Garware polyester limited

Garware polyester limited is an exporter of polyester films. The

company also manufactures sun control window films. It manufactures
bi-axially oriented polyethylene terephthalate (BOPET)/polyester films,
sun control films, bi-axially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) films,
thermal lamination films and specialty polyester films. It manufactures
window films for applications, Such as automotive, architectural safety
and anti-graffiti. It offers infrared rejection films and films to reduce the
impact of mobile tower radiation it also manufactures heat rejection
films in addition. It offers products, which include digital printable films,
films for solar photo voltaic application, films for lidding application,
coated films for label. And medium and high shrink films for label the
company through its step down subsidiary, Global pet films Inc.,
markets brands. Such as GLOBAL WINDOW FILMS and Garware Sun
Control, it sells its products in China, Europe. Australia and Africa,
among others

Current Price: Rs. 227

Target price: Rs. 450

Time Frame: 18-24 Months.

 Kutumba Rao
Recommendations Hyderabad (Sep 2018)
3. Archidply industries limited

Archidply Industries Limited is engaged in manufacturing

plywood, decorative plywood and decorative laminates the company
operates through two segments wood based product and paper based
product. The company's wood-based products segment includes
plywood. Block board, Veneers. Decorative plywood, Prelaminated
Partical Boards the company's paper-based products segment includes
lacerated sheets (HPL) the company's product categories include
plywood, block board and flush doors, pre laminated board, decorative
laminates and decorative veneers. The company's products include MR
Grade Plywood, BWR Plywood, Shuttering Plywood, Densified Film
Faced Plywood, Fire Retardant Plywood, BWR Block board BWP Flush
Door. Teak Block Board, Pre Laminated Particle Board, Pre Laminated
MDF Board, Archidlam Laminates, Post Forming Laminates. Arched
Edge Laminates, Silvilam Laniinates. Fire retardant laminates. Compact
laminates. Switch board laminates, Veneered particle board and teak
plywood.

Current price: Rs. 38

Target price: Rs. 80
Time Frame: 18-24 months.
 Kutumba Rao
Recommendations Hyderabad (Sep 2018)
4. CG power and industrial solutions limited

CG power and industrial solutions limited, formerly Crompton

greaves limited, is engaged in the business of power transformers and
reactors, low tension motors and switchgears. The company provides
end-to-end solutions to utilities. Industries and consumers the
company's segments include power systems, industrial systems and
automation systems. The power systems segment includes
transformer, switchgear, turnkey projects, and power supervisory
control and data acquisition systems (SCADA) the industrial systems
segment includes electric motors. Alternators, drives, traction
electronics, railway signaling equipment, stampings and SCADA the
automation systems segment includes protection and control systems,
protection relays and panels, control devices, and smart meters and
communication devices it manufactures a range of power and
distribution transformers, extra high voltage (EHV), Medium Voltage
(MV) circuit breakers, lightning arrestors, isolators and vacuum
interrupters.

Current price: Rs. 44

Target price: Rs. 390
Time frame: 18-24 months.
 Kutumba Rao
Recommendations Hyderabad (Sep 2018)
5. Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited(Hudco)

Housing And Urban Development Corporation Limited is an India-

based techno-financing company. The company provides long term
finance for construction of houses for residential purposes or finance or
undertakes housing and urban development programs in the country it
finances or undertakes, wholly or partly the setting up of the new or
satellite towns and industrial enterprises of building material the
company promotes, establishes. Assists collaborates and provides
consultancy services for the projects and engages in designing and
planning of works relating to its programs in India and abroad. Its
consultancy assistance covers architectural, planning and engineering
fields, such as housing designs, development plans, master plans,
heritage protection/preservation plans, city development plans,
Feasibility studies, etc.

Current Price: Rs. 49

Target Price: Rs. 85
Time Frame: 18-24 months.
 Kutumba Rao
Recommendations Hyderabad (Sep 2018)
6. Jsw Energy Limited

Jsw energy limited is a holding company the company is an

integrated power company primarily engaged in generation and sale of
power. Its business segments include power generation, power
transmission mining. Power trading and equipment manufacturing its
projects include Kutehr hydro project, which is located at Kutehr,
Himachal Pradesh; Kapurdi mine, and Jalipa mine it operates
approximately 4,530 megawatts (MW) of power, generation capacity.
Its Karcham project is approximately 1,000 MW (4x250 MW) run of the
river hydro power plant in Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. The
Karcham project has in-built capacity of over 1,091 MW. The company's
approximately 300 MW (3x100 MW) Baspa project is located on the
river Baspa, a tributary of river Satluj in district Kinnaur, Himachal
Pradesh. The design energy of Baspa project is over 1.050 million units
(MUs) for approximately 300 mw capacities its plants include
Vijayanagar plant, Ratnagiri plant, Barmer plant and Himachal plant.

Current price: Rs. 60

Target price: Rs. 100
Time Frame: 12-18 months.