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No longer seeing eye to eye?
With India recalibrating its relations with other powers, the IndiaU.S. equation is not quite balancing out
A
t the end of an unusually long threeday meeting,
Suhasini Haidar cially postDoklam, challenge the countries “taking advantage” of indication that the Trump admi
the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and them, no one in New Delhi paid nistration and the Modi govern
Bank of India opted for a hike in key interest
A
t his speech at the Shangri back a Quadrilateral grouping of much attention. Over the year, Mr. ment took each other into confi
rates by 25 basis points — the fi rst such increase in four La Dialogue in Singapore India, the U.S., Japan and Australia Trump grew more vocal in this de dence before doing so.
and a half years. This hike, the fi rst during this NDA go last week, billed as a major to maintain an open IndoPacifi c. mand, including twice during
vernment’s tenure, was approved unanimously by the foreign policy statement, Prime Today, the Doklam issue has been and Venezuela in defi ance of meetings with Mr. Modi in Wash In the face of sanctions
sixmember committee, citing worries about hardening Minister Narendra Modi spoke of buried, the BRI isn’t as much a American sanctions. ington and Manila, calling for In Defence Minister Nirmala Sithara
infl ation trends and a fi rming up of growth recovery at India and the U.S.’s “shared vi concern as before, and the govern dia to scrap its 75100% tariff s, gi man’s avowal of the S400 agree
sion” of an open and secure Indo ment’s nonconfrontational atti Era of summits ven that the U.S. imposes zero ment, and Foreign Minister Sush
home. Global uncertainties aff ecting emerging markets
Pacifi c region. Yet his words dif tude to the Maldives and Nepal in In a world where summits bet tariff s on the import of Indian ma Swaraj’s open defi ance of U.S.
in particular have played a role as well — be it rising ten fered so much from those of U.S. dicates a softened policy on China ween leaders have replaced grand Royal Enfi eld motorcycles. Mr. sanctions on Russia, Iran and Ve
sions over trade wars initiated by the Donald Trump ad Defence Secretary James Mattis, in the neighbourhood. Mean strategy, the optics are even clear Modi tried to accommodate U.S. nezuela at separate press confe
ministration or the strengthening dollar or further rate who spoke at the same event, that while, Mr. Modi now essays a clos er. Mr. Modi will have met Mr. Xi concerns, and even called Mr. rences this month couldn’t have
hikes by the Federal Reserve that could strengthen the it seemed clear that New Delhi and er engagement with Chinese Presi and Russian President Vladimir Trump on February 8 this year to helped. It also didn’t help that ow
exodus of global capital from emerging markets such as Washington no longer see eyeto dent Xi Jinping and a relationship Putin fourfi ve times each by the tell him that tariff s were about to ing to Mr. Trump’s sudden deci
India. Already, between January and May, outfl ows eye on this issue, and several oth reset with China after the Wuhan end of the year, if one counts infor be cut to 50%. But after Mr. Trump sion to sack Rex Tillerson as Secre
ers as well. meeting. mal and formal summits, as well as divulged the contents of their con tary of State in March, the 2+2
from foreign portfolio investors have reached their
The Quad formation, which is meetings at the SCO, BRICS and versation publicly, trade talks meeting in April, which may have
highest level in 10 years, and by June 4, $6.7 billion was Oceanic gulf holding its second offi cial meeting G20. In contrast, nearly half the were driven into a rut. Offi cials in clarifi ed matters, was put off . The
pulled out on a net basis from the domestic capital mar To begin with, Mr. Modi referred today in Singapore, has also been year has gone in just scheduling Washington still say that if India truth is, building a relationship
ket. The rupee, along with other emerging market cur to the IndoPacifi c, a term coined given short shrift. India rejected the upcoming 2+2 meet of Indian were to slash its rates, it would see with the Trump administration in
rencies, is hurting too, but RBI Governor Urjit Patel dis by the U.S. for the Indian and Pac an Australian request to join mari and U.S. Ministers of Defence and major benefi ts in other areas of the past year has been tricky for
missed suggestions that the rate hike was a bid to stem ifi c Oceans region, as a natural ge time exercises along with the U.S. Foreign Aff airs. commerce, while offi cials in New both South Block and the Indian
outfl ows. The MPC, he asserted, is driven purely by its ographical region, not a strategic and Japan this June, and Navy Trade protectionism is clearly Delhi say that with Mr. Trump hav Embassy in Washington, as more
one, while Mr. Mattis called the In Chief Admiral Sunil Lanba said the other big point of divergence ing gone public with Mr. Modi’s than 30 key administration offi
infl ation management mandate, and there is no con
doPacifi c a “priority theatre” and quite plainly last month that there between India and the U.S., which off er, it would be impossible to cials have quit or have been sacked
tradiction between the rate hike and the committee a “subset of [America’s] broader was no plan to “militarise” the have in recent months taken each back down any further. In fact, a — they have had to deal with three
sticking to its neutral policy stance. security strategy” for his military Quad. Contrast this with India’s ac other to the World Trade Organisa new cess has taken tariff s back up National Security Advisers, two
To be sure, while retaining its growth projections for command, now renamed the In ceptance of military exercises with tion on several issues. There has to 70%. Chiefs of Staff , as well as two Se
201819 at 7.4%, the MPC has revised upwards its infl a doPacifi c Command. While Mr. countries of the Shanghai Cooper been a surge in disputes between The biggest challenges to a com cretaries of State as interlocutors.
tion projections for the year since its April meeting — Modi referred to India’s good rela ation Organisation (SCO), the Rus the two countries: on the new mon IndiaU.S. vision are now It is equally clear that the India
from 4.75.1% in the fi rst half and 4.4% in the second half tions with the U.S., Russia and Chi siaChina led grouping it will join American steel and aluminium ta emerging from the new U.S. law U.S. equation isn’t balancing out
to 4.84.9% and a signifi cantly higher 4.7%, respective na in equal measure, Mr. Mattis this week in Qingdao, and one can riff s, the proposed cuts in H1B pro called Countering America’s Ad quite the way it did last year, when
vowed to counter China’s moves in understand some of the confusion fessional visas and cancellation of versaries Through Sanctions Act Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump fi rst an
ly. This should worry a government gearing for parlia
the IndoPacifi c, and referred to in Washington. Pentagon offi cials, H4 spouse visas, on India’s tariff s and the U.S.’s withdrawal from the nounced the idea of the “2+2” dia
mentary elections next year. Though seasonal food in the U.S. National Defence Strategy who had come to accept India’s and resistance to U.S. exports of Iran nuclear deal with the threat of logue. Ms. Swaraj, Ms. Sitharaman
fl ation spikes are delayed, input cost pressures have released this January, which puts diffi dence on signing outstanding dairy and pork products, on In more secondary sanctions. Both and their American counterparts
hardened owing to a spurt in global commodity prices, both China and Russia in its cross IndiaU.S. foundational agree dian price reductions on medical actions have a direct impact on In have their work cut out for them
led by fuel. Moreover, infl ationary expectations among hairs as the world’s two “revision ments, are now left scratching devices, and Reserve Bank of India dia, given its high dependence on during their upcoming meeting in
producers as well as consumers have gathered steam. ist powers”. their heads as India publicly en rules on data localisation on In defence hardware from Russia and Washington on July 6. If a week is a
Crude oil prices have been the biggest factor at play, ris The divergence in their posi ters the international arena in the dian servers for U.S. companies. its considerable energy interests in long time in politics, in geopolitics
tions, admittedly, are due more to corner with Russia and China, The row over HarleyDavidson Iran. In particular, India’s plans to today a year is an eternity.
ing 12% from $66 a barrel when the MPC met in April to
a shift in New Delhi’s position over while proclaiming its intention to motorcycles is a case in point, acquire the Russian S400 missile
$74 a barrel. The committee said this rise is “sharper, the past year than in the U.S.’s, continue energy deals with Iran where what should have been a system will become the litmus test suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in
earlier than expected and seems to be durable”, and
termed it a major upside risk to its earlier infl ation pro
jections. Industry has expressed concern, but eff ective
borrowing rates and bond yields had been fi rming up
even before this rate hike. The government has, surpris
Does Modi swing elections?
ingly, welcomed the RBI’s stance as one that could help
steady the markets and dampen uncertainties. The We need more data before making easy correlations to explain popular verdicts
RBI’s neutral stance, as Mr. Patel pointed out, allows it
to keep all options open. But a reversal in rates is un ties (CSDS) conducted a postpoll ing, why is an unprecedented ly six constituencies (Gulbarga
likely till global headwinds clear up and the mandarins survey which found that 43% of ₹ 4,343 crore budget needed for South, Gulbarga Rural, Raichur,
in New Delhi work out a viable strategy to minimise the respondents decided their candi publicity by the Modi govern Shimoga Rural, Tumkur City and
date in the last two weeks, and ment? And why does it need “the Udupi) were with a majority of ap
infl ation transmission from global oil prices that is exa
more of them voted for the BJP divisive innuendoes, falsehoods proximately 15,000 or less show
cerbated by their taxation policy for fuels. than the Congress. This tilted an and fear mongering” (according to ing the possible infl uence of a Mo
Nissim Mannathukkaren evenly balanced election (as seen CSDS researchers) of the Modi di rally in the win.
in the last CSDS prepoll survey) to campaign in Gujarat which sup The Congress won 16 (Belgaum
Defend the deal
P
rime Minister Narendra Modi wards the BJP. The CSDS research posedly swung the election? Rural, Bellary, Chamarajanagar,
conducted a roadshow while ers believe that it is “quite obvious Gulbarga North, HubliDharwad
Iran should cooperate with Europe and China inaugurating an Expressway ly” Mr. Modi’s campaigning which Some truths East, Kolar Gold Field, Bidar, Man
and made an indirect campaign saved the BJP from defeat. wave is discounted here. Mr. Modi Instead of anecdotal evidence, galore, Raichur Rural, Yeshwanth
to work around U.S. sanctions speech at a rally in a neighbouring In Karnataka, most opinion himself claimed that the perfor here are the results of the consti pur, Bangarapet, Koppal, Gadag,
district just a day before the Lok polls conducted before Mr. Modi mance in Karnataka was “unpre tuencies (including cities which Jamakhandi, Babaleshwar and
I
ran’s notifi cation to the UN that it would launch a
plan to increase its uranium enrichment capacity il Sabha byelection in Kairana, Ut began his rallies got the vote share cedented and unparalleled.” But might have twothree constituen Chikkodi), and the JD(S) three (Bi
tar Pradesh, on May 28. The Bha correct, and the seats wrong. Sid the BJP had won more seats in cies but excluding the metro city dar South, Kolar and Tumkur Ru
lustrates the risks associated with the U.S. withdra
ratiya Janata Party lost Kairana. daramaiah was the most popular 2008 (110) before the Modi magic. of Bengaluru which has many con ral). Of these, eight (Belgaum Ru
wal from the nuclear deal last month. The Joint Com In the Modi era, a BJP victory in Chief Minister choice, yet the Con This is not to argue that Mr. Mo stituencies) that Mr. Modi con ral, Bellary, Bidar, Bidar South,
prehensive Plan of Action, reached among the fi ve any Assembly election is attribut gress lost its majority in the As di's popularity does not matter; af ducted rallies in. We can safely Kolar, Kolar Gold Field, Raichur
permanent members of the UN Security Council, be ed to the “Modi magic”. This is sembly. The exit polls had given ter all, he is the most popular na surmise that BJP wins with good/ Rural, Tumkur Rural) were cap
sides Germany, the European Union and Iran, in 2015, due to the unprecedented time contradictory results. Given the tional leader at present, and by a big majorities would have been tured from the BJP/splinterofBJP/
curtailed Tehran’s nuclear programme in return for the Mr. Modi devotes to campaigning unreliability of opinion/exit polls, huge distance. But the crucial victories even without the eff ect of Independents despite the Modi
lifting of international sanctions. But after President in State elections. For example, how do we treat them as conclu question is, how does this in a Modi rally. Contrastingly, close rally.
Mr. Modi participated in 34 rallies sive evidence? This is the problem fl uence voter decisions? The argu wins (even if we keep a higher These fi gures suggest the gains/
Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement
in Gujarat, 31 in Bihar, 24 in U.P., of attributing BJP’s performance, ments of Modi magic after each margin of around 15,000 votes) losses for the BJP after the Modi
and threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran, its and 21 in the Karnataka Assembly especially in Karnataka, to the Mo election are also cyclical because might have been made possible by rally were roughly evenly
survival is in question. For now, the other signatories elections. After the BJP secured di magic before cogent studies. they begin with what they are sup a Modi rally. matched. And that we need in
say they remain committed to the agreement. But al 104 seats in Karnataka, commenta Complex elections in a complex posed to explain. By this logic, is Of the 35 such constituencies depth studies about voter deci
most a month after Mr. Trump announced his decision, tors again lauded the “Modi mag and diverse country like India are the Kairana loss due to the failure (including in Congress/Janata Dal sions conducted before and after
they are yet to come up with a framework to salvage the ic” and “wave” for taking the BJP reduced here to a national charis of the Modi magic? (S) areas of infl uence), the BJP got elections to conclusively establish
deal. The latest Iranian announcement is perhaps past 100 seats. matic leadership, at the expense of Moreover, they ignore the mate 16: it won 11 from other parties/In the eff ect of a Modi rally. Other
aimed at turning the heat up on European powers to local, caste, class/economic, fac rial basis: immense resources dependents (Belgaum South, Bel wise, the breathless recital of the
Complex realities tional factors (surveys fi nd deve spent in creating the “magic”: full gaum North, Bellary City, Gulbar mantra of a Modi wave might turn
come up with guarantees that the deal’s benefi ts will be
Problematically, these are anecdo lopment and a candidate’s work as page advertisements in newspap ga Rural, Mangalore City South, out to be a vacuous exercise after
in place even with U.S. sanctions. According to the deal, tal conjectures, unfounded on sys the most important voting issues, ers, the amount spent on electio Mangalore City North, Raichur, every election.
Iran can enrich uranium, but under tight restrictions. tematic postpoll surveys probing not leadership). The fact that the neering (supposedly the highest in Shimoga, Shimoga Rural, Tumkur
Iran now says it would open a centre for the production the eff ect of a Modi rally on last Congress increased its vote share Karnataka), etc. This itself is made City and Udupi) and retained fi ve Nissim Mannathukkaren is Chair,
of new centrifuges at its Natanz facility, which could be minute voter decisions. In Gujarat, to 38% (almost 2% over the BJP, possible by 90% of corporate do (Chikmagalur, Chitradurga, Gul International Development Studies,
used for enrichment. Tehran could argue that it is not for example, the LoknitiCentre and translating into nearly 7 lakh nations going to the BJP recently. If barga South, HubliDharwad Cen Dalhousie University, Canada. He tweets
technically violating the agreement as long as it does for the Study of Developing Socie votes) during an ostensible Modi the Modi magic is so overwhelm tral and HubliDharwad West). On @nmannathukkaren
not produce centrifuges. But the move to open a pro
duction facility, that too soon after Supreme Leader LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for preparations to speed
up uranium enrichment, could be seen as a provocative lastic-free world Given the history of how phases, why not the same what he did not by the Railway Ministry screening, Karnataka HC
step by the remaining parties to the agreement. Like Tamil Nadu, other rules and regulations are policy be adopted for acknowledge is the fact that under Lalu Prasad when tells State govt.”, June 6).
Instead of such posturing, both Iran and Europe State governments should breached with impunity in plastic too? To minimise India perhaps has the plastic cups were replaced Each of them may have
would do well to shift their focus to preserving the inte also enforce a ban on the our country, the ban on plastic use, the State could poorest system of disposing with ‘kulhads’. Earthen their own political
grity of the agreement. If Europe remains politically manufacture, storage and plastic by the Tamil Nadu think of applying a plastic plastic waste. There is a pots are easily breakable affi liations and views on
committed to the agreement as it claims, there have to use of plastic products, government can only be tax on establishments using halfhearted attempt to and could pose handling issues which have nothing
barring a few exceptions construed as symbolic and plastic. This may act as a control the manufacture of problems, but they could to do with the fi lm. If
be proper measures to circumvent the impact of U.S.
(“T.N. plastic ban to kick in populist rather than as an deterrent. particular kind of plastics. be made less brittle. We individual affi liation to a
sanctions. It is not yet clear whether European compa from Jan. ’19”, June 6). environmentfriendly act, V. Subramanian, Plastic bags less than 50 should use glass bottles for political party is
nies will make any signifi cant investments in Iran, or First, we must look at the unless accompanied by Chennai microns thick are banned, milk and soft drinks. considered, no fi lm can
even continue to do business in the country, once U.S. major sources of plastic stringent enforcement. In but neither the States nor Consumers of milk can ever be screened. The
sanctions start targeting them. Earlier, European coun pollution, which are the spite of growing concerns If we ban plastic, future the city corporations care empty these bottles and Censor Board exists to
tries had discussed providing companies that do busi bottled water and soft on the negative fallouts of generations will be grateful to enforce this rule. Tonnes keep them at the doorstep certify fi lms and look into
ness with Iran special fi nancing from the European In drinks industry, followed by plastic use, plastic has to us. Soft drinks of bags made of cheap for the supplier to take issues that people may have
the packaging industry, remained an integral part manufacturers are the plastic that cannot be back. The next day’s milk a problem with, as was the
vestment Bank and passing legislation to protect them
especially online of our lives and it cannot be major contributors of disposed of are can be supplied in the same case with Padmaavat.
from U.S. sanctions — but no decision has been taken so companies, and fi nally the wished away by the stroke plastic; they should go back manufactured and used in bottles. Also, providing There is no such issue in
far. The EU says it can create conditions for Iran to con carrier bagsmanufacturing of a pen. Industries thriving to the good old days of glass most retail stores. tokens for milk will force the case of Kaala.
tinue to benefi t from the deal but is wary of giving any industry. Enforcement can on plastic also need some bottles. The food delivery C.V. Venugopalan, people to carry their own Rajinikanth’s stance on
guarantee. Iran has made it clear that the U.S. withdra be made eff ective only if time to recoup. It is industry must also adopt Palakkad containers to the booth. Cauvery should not aff ect
wal should not aff ect its oil exports and access to the there is a heavy fi ne impossible for them to recyclable and perishable G.G. Menon, the fi lm. That more and
SWIFT international bank payments messaging system. imposed on the sale of switch over to other products like banana Singleuse plastic bags Ernakulam more fi lms are being
The way forward is to continue a dialogue to fi nd an plastic. Municipal avenues of income in such a leaves, paper and coir. should be banned so that screened under police
authorities should have a short period. The issue of Ramdas Naik, people are forced to use The Kaala controversy protection is not something
economic and legislative package that would shield Eu Chennai
strict separation of organic job loss will also be bags made of cloth and jute A fi lm is a product of the we should be proud of.
ropean companies and Iranian economic interests from and inorganic waste, so that insurmountable to carry groceries and other combined eff orts of the Satyabodha Vyasanakere,
U.S. sanctions. For that, Europe has to assure Iran it will the process of recycling can considering the precarious Prime Minister Narendra solid items. For liquid writer, director, actors, Bengaluru