Indonesia Macroeconomy 2018

INDONESIA MACROECONOMY
& FMCG UPDATE Q3 2018

CEO Power Breakfast, 14 December 2018
Agus Nurudin
Managing Director
Nielsen Indonesia
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

INDONESIA MACROECONOMY
& FMCG UPDATE Q3 2018
CEO Power Breakfast, 14 December 2018
Agus Nurudin
Managing Director
Nielsen Indonesia

INDONESIA MACROECONOMY INDICATOR
Indonesian economy in Q3 2018 is expected to grow steadily below the government target. However the inflation
rate is moving slower in the past one year.
GDP GROWTH (%) INFLATION MAT (%)
2012 - 2016 2017 2018
5.07 5.4** 8,4 8,4

5,58
5,02 4,79 5,03 5,01 5,01 5,06 5,19 5,06 5,27 5.17
4,4
3,6 3,7 3,6
3,4 3,4
3,0 3,1 2,9
FY FY FY FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
DEC DEC DEC DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC
13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18
13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18
*) FORECASTED BY THE TRADING ECONOMICS

**) GOVERNMENT’S ASSUMPTION ON APBN 2018
SOURCE: BPS.GO.ID 3
GDP GROWTH BY COMPONENT
The GDP growth in this quarter is mainly driven by Government Spending and Investment that increase slightly
faster than last year.
GDP CONTRIBUTION GDP SECTOR GROWTH

BY SECTOR (%)
5,5 5,4
5 5,1
5,0 5,0 5,0
5,1 5,0
4,9 5,0 4,9 5,0
EXPORT/GDP 22%
IMPORT/GDP 23%
HOUSEHOLD
CONSUMPTION 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 | Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
NET EXPORT -1%
32
55
6,9 6,3
Q3’18 4,5 5,4
3,5 3,8
5,3
2,0 2,7 2,7
GOVERNMENT
-0,2
SPENDING -1,9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 | Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
9
9,1 8,0
7,1 7,3 7,0
5,3 5,1 5,4 5,9
HH Consumption Gov. Spending 4,1 4,5 4,8
Investment Net Export/Import

Others GROSS FIXED
CAPITAL 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 | Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
FORMATION
SOURCE: BPS.GO.ID 4
INDONESIA INFLATION DETAILS
The slower inflation is driven by Household Expenditure and Transportation-communication-services parts.
However, the Prepared Food-Bev.-Cig. parts are still increase steadily in this year.
INFLATION MONTHLY
COMPOSITION INFLATION & CPI
2017 MAT18 YTD

COMMODITY 2018 116
Consumer Price Index*
4,0
Monthly Inflation (%)
FOOD RAW MATERIAL 1.3 3.8 1.6 114 112,5 3,5
112
PREPARED FOODS, BEVERAGES & CIGARETTE 4.1 4.0 3.1 3,0
109,3
110
2,5
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE 5.1 2.1 1.6
108
2,0
105,4
CLOTHES 3.9 3.1 2.7 106
1,5
104
HEALTHY 3.0 3.1 2.5 102,3
1,0
102
EDUCATION, RECREATION & SPORT 3.3 3.2 2.9 100,0
0,5
100
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, &SERVICES 4.2 1.8 1.0 98 0,0
INFLATION 3.6 2.9 1.9 96 -0,5
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Jun-17
Sep-17
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-14
Mar-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
SOURCE: BPS.GO.ID 5
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (BANK CENTRAL)
Indonesian consumer confidence level relatively unchanged since mid of last year.
CCI CECI CEI
150
CONFIDENCE ABOUT FUTURE
140 CONDITION
130 126 135

120
SEP‘18
110
CONFIDENCE ABOUT
100 104 CURRENT CONDITION
90 110
80
CCI - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CECI - CONSUMER ECONOMIC CONDITION INDEX
70
CEI - CONSUMER EXPECTATION INDEX
JAN17 APR17 JUL17 OCT17 JAN18 APR18 JUL18
SOURCE: BANK INDONESIA 6

ECONOMY IS STILL THE TOP MAJOR CONCERN
(UP TO Q3’18)
Significant increase spotted for terrorism and made it as second major concern after the economy.
TREND OF RECESSIONARY TOP 5 MAJOR CONCERNS

SENTIMENT AMONG CONSUMER
Yes No CONCERN Q1 ‘18 Q2 ‘18 Q3 ‘18

THE ECONOMY 30% 32% 32%

53 54 53 61
52 53
49 55 56
POLITICAL STABILITY 20% 20% 22%
48 47
51 46 45 44
47 47 39 WORK LIFE BALANCE 15% 14% 18%
HEALTH 13% 10% 15%
Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
Q : Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment?

PARENT’S & WELFARE HAPPINESS 13% 15% 13%
Source: The Conference Board ® Consumer Confidence Survey, Conducted in Collaboration with Nielsen 7
SAVINGS IN THE BANK IS SOFTENING
Saving and investment fund (both from saving account and Time Deposit) has an increasing trend, yet softening. The
ownership comes from upper SES.
FUND FROM SAVING ACCOUNT + TIME DEPOSIT (IN BILLION RP)
+5.7%
Q3
+11.5%
Rp4.168.082
Rp3.943.517
Rp3.535.222
2016 2017 2018
Source: Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan 2016–2017 / WWW.LPS.GO.ID

8
WHILE INCIDENCE ON LIFESTYLE CONTINUE TO
INCREASE
More Upper and Middle Consumers dine out or upgrade their smartphone.
DINING OUT INCIDENCE DURABLE ELECTRONIC SMARTPHONE OWNERSHIP

(COFFEE SHOP & FAST FOOD) OWNERSHIP*
85
79 79
50
40 41 43 41
37
Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18
BY SES (UPPER, MIDDLE, LOW)

70 77 75 98 98 94 66 71 79
30 30 36 79 78 88 28 32 43
15 16 11 41 39 56 17 21 22
* Incidence is based on 8 electronic items: AC, computer (PC/laptop), microwave oven, refrigerator, LCD/LED/Plasma TV,
Source: Consumer Media View 2018 – Nielsen Media Vacuum cleaner, washing machine, water heater 9
CONSUMER BIG TICKET PURCHASE
Car sales is also growing positively with several new model introduced to the market. Motorcycle sales is
showing positive sign until Q3 this year.
CAR SALES MOTORCYCLE

(000 UNIT) SALES (000 UNIT)
275
1.787
278 276
249
1.712
291 1.557
1.863 1.546
270 302
239 252
1.717 1.719
1.411 1.640
314 2.226
243 265 250 262
1.610 1.458 1.545
1.299
329 283 267 283 292 1.990 1.647 1.504 1.402 1.457
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
SOURCE: ASSOCIATION NUMBERS (GAIKINDO AND AISI) 10

IN GENERAL, HOUSEHOLDS ACROSS SES
ARE MAINTAINING THEIR SPENDING
AVERAGE SPEND/BUYER % GROWTH
PER MONTH (ALL INCLUDED) (SPEND/BUYER)
10.000 9.234
8.701 Q3’17 VS Q3’18 GROWTH
9.000
8.000 7.255 TOTAL PANEL 0

6.755
6.497 6.510
7.000 6.291
UPPER -4
6.000
4.630 4.629
5.000
MIDDLE -2
4.000 3.242 3.386 3.192
3.150 3.160
3.000 LOWER +6
2.963
2.000 2.677
1.985 2.064 2.021 2.101
1.000 1.771
0
Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18
Total Upper (15%) Middle (54%) Lower (31%)
Source: Nielsen CPS Data – Additional Spending +79 FMCG Homepanel 11

CONSUMERS ARE HOLDING BACK ON SPENDING
ACROSS POSTS
Only Leisure is where they willing to spend more on.
HH SPENDING CONTRIBUTION
STRONG GROWTH MODERATE GROWTH DECLINE GROWTH

Saving + Loan
Education Housing
related
Leisure Communi Food Health

cation (Fresh &
Staples)
Transport
ation FMCG
Source: Nielsen CPS data – additional spending +79 FMCG Homepanel – Q3 2017 vs Q3 2018 12
POST FESTIVE, HOUSEHOLDS ARE SPENDING
CAREFULLY
HH SPENDING STRONG MODERATE DECLINE
CONTRIBUTION %
10% 7%
Transportation Food
15% 18% 3%
(Fresh & Staples)
UPPER SES Leisure Health 20%
6.5 MIO 7%
Housing
related FMCG
13% Leisure 13%

Transportation
22% Saving+
54% Loan
22% Housing
related 3%
MIDDLE SES Health
3.1 MIO 8% Education 8% Food (Fresh &
Staples)
5%
Communication 5% FMCG
4% 28%
10% 3% Communication Food (Fresh &
Leisure Health Staples)
31% 10%
LOWER SES Transportation 15%
20% FMCG
2.1 MIO 7%
Saving+ 3%
Loan Education Housing related
Source: Nielsen CPS data – additional spending +79 FMCG Homepanel – Q3 2017 vs Q3 2018 13
FMCG PERFORMANCE

FMCG IS STILL UNABLE TO GROW THIS MAT EVEN
THOUGH WITH SLOWER PRICE INCREASE
VALUE, VOLUME GROWTH & PRICE INCREASE | TOP 58 FMCG CATEGORIES
FMCG Value Growth FMCG Vol Growth (/unit) FMCG Price Increase (/unit)
12
19 10
5 11 12 6 5
13 8 3 1 2
2 2
(1) (2) (1)

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 MAT SEP'18
CIGARETTE FMCG
Volume (Bill Stc) Value (Trillion Rp) Volume (Bill Bags) Value (Trillion Rp)
73,5 72,1 73,8 74,0 72,5 73,0

70,4
84,6 86,5 86,9 85,3 89,5 86,7

84,0
71,5 69,3 69,6 69,2 66,4 64,1
63,3 33,4 32,9 32,8 33,0 32,2 33,2 32,7
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18
Source: (1) BPS official government site, & nielsen retail data (2) Nielsen RMS Data 15
FMCG GROUP CATEGORIES GROWTH
Several categories start to have volume increase such as Cooking Aid and Dairy as their average price remain
unchanged. However FMCG as overall only grows from slow price/KG increase.
RETAIL SALES GROWTH VS. YA
35% OF FOOD 35% OF BEVERAGE 18% OF P. CARE 8% OF HOMECARE 3% OF PHARMA

VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG VALUE PRICE/KG
1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
10% OF 13% OF 8% OF 8% OF 3% OF
COOKING AID DAIRY BEAUTY HOMECARE PHARMA
2% 0% 2% -0% 0% 3% 2% 2% 1% -3%
11% OF INST. 8% OF 10% OF

FOOD NON RTD BASIC PC
-3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3%
13% OF 13% OF READY

SNACK + CONF TO DRINK
3% 3% 1% 0%
16
IN-HOME PURCHASE SHOWED SIMILAR TREND
IN-HOME CONSUMPTION
FOOD BEVERAGE P. CARE HOMECARE PHARMA

VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL VAL MAT 18 % VOL
2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2% -8% -3%
COOKING
DAIRY BEAUTY HOMECARE PHARMA
AID
3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 3% 3% 2% -8% -3%
INSTANT
NON RTD BASIC PC
FOOD
0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3%
SNACK + READY TO
CONF DRINK
7% 3% -1% 0%
17
TOP 10 CATEGORIES GROWTH
The top 3 categories are still unable to grow in this MAT especially in value and volume KG. However, several
other top 10 such as Cooking Oil, Mineral Water, and Liquid Milk are still growing healthily.
STRONG GROWTH MARGINAL GROWTH DECLINE GROWTH
MINERAL WATER BISCUIT INSTANT NOODLE

LIQUID MILK COOKING OIL SWEETENED CONDENSED MILK
SNACK SHAMPOO
CHOCOLATE STOCK SOUP
18
HOW IS HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE ON FMCG ?
• UPPER SES: Rationalize increased spending by utilizing promotion
• MIDDLE SES: There is a tendency that they are holding up their spending towards FMCG, to afford Non FMCG
• LOWER SES: As they are still relying on FMCG, still try to catch up with rising price by reducing purchase, due limited cash
outlay.
IDR SPEND KG/L UNIT SHOPPING TRIP SPEND PER HH

UPPER (15%)
MIDDLE (54)
LOWER (31%)
INCREASE RELATIVE THE SAME DECREASE
SOURCE: NIELSEN CPS DATA – FMCG ONLY 19

WHICH HOUSEWIFE SEGMENT DISRUPTED FMCG
PERFORMANCE?
Younger HW seems to be the one who are reducing the FMCG especially for Instant Food, RTD Beverages and
Beauty categories; while mature HW maintain their FMCG purchase.
HW AGE HW AGE
< 35 >=35
IDR SPEND KG/L FOOD
COOKING AID
HW AGE < 35 ( 22%) INSTANT FOOD

SNACK + CONFECTIONERIES
BEVERAGES
HW AGE >= 35 ( 78%)
DAIRY
NON RTD
INCREASE RELATIVE THE SAME DECREASE RTD
PERSONAL CARE
BEAUTY
BASIC PC
HOMECARE
PHARMACEUTICAL
SOURCE: NIELSEN CPS DATA – FMCG ONLY 20
THE YOUNGER ALSO SHOWS STRONGER INCREASE
IN KEEPING UP WITH SOCIAL LIFESTYLE
DURABLE ELECTRONIC SMARTPHONE
DINING OUT INCIDENCE OWNERSHIP* OWNERSHIP ONLINE SHOPPING
(COFFEE SHOP & FAST FOOD)
85
79 79
50
40 41 43 41
37
13
5 6
Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18
BY AGE (20-34, 35+)

51 49 56 82 80 85 53 57 71 10 10 22
28 31 33 78 77 85 21 24 32 3 3 7
* Incidence is based on 8 electronic items: AC, computer (PC/laptop), microwave oven, refrigerator, LCD/LED/Plasma TV,
Source: Consumer Media View 2018 – Nielsen Media Vacuum cleaner, washing machine, water heater 21
HOW ABOUT CHANNEL
& AREA ?

POSITIVE VALUE GROWTH IS STILL HAPPENING IN
MINIMARKET, YET IT IS BELOW THE EXPANSION
GROWTH TOTAL HSM MM GT HBM HBC
(%CONT) (100%) (13%) (31%) (54%) (1%) (2%)
VALUE (RP) INDEX – SEP’15
SEP18 2 -3 10 -2 3 -1
P3M -0 -7 4 -1 3 -2
GROWTH (%)
P6M 2 -5 8 -0 2 -2
P12M 1 -5 7 -1 -0 -1
STORE GROWTH 18 VS 17 0 9 1 1 4
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
SEP15 DEC15 MAR16 JUN16 SEP16 DEC16 MAR17 JUN17 SEP17 DEC17 MAR18 JUN18 SEP18
MT Hyper/Super MT Minimarket General Trade H&B Medical H&B Cosmetic
SOURCE: NIELSEN RMS DATA 23

OPPORTUNITY SEEN FOR OUTER JAVA
Other Island region are continue showing better growth, while Jakarta is still in the softening mode.
SULAWESI
SUMATRA 5.4 3% INDONESIA FMCG
16.2 0% KALIMANTAN 345 T
5.2 5%
BANUSRA
JAKARTA GR
4.5 1%
20.2 -1%
OTHER JAVA
48.6 2%
24
SOFTENING TREND IS MORE DRIVEN FROM MAJOR
CITIES
While Rural area is able to growing positively in this MAT.
VALUE GROWTH (MAT 18) VOL UNIT GROWTH (MAT 18)
1.2 -1.1
TOTAL INDONESIA
0.1 -2.5
CONT : 37% MAJOR CITIES CONT : 31%
1.9 -1.1
OTHER CITIES
CONT : 51% CONT : 49%
1.4 RURAL
1.4
CONT : 12% CONT : 20%
Major cities: jakarta gr, bandung gr, semarang gr, yogyakarta gr, surabaya gr, medan, makassar gr. 25
A NEW ERA
OF ONLINE SHOPPING
(CONT. 1% OF TOTAL FMCG SALES)

ONLINE SHOPPING INCREASE, DRIVEN BY YOUNGER
ONES
Among internet users
78%
78%
20
13 14
11
2015 2016 2017 2018
Among internet users by age
10’s 20’s 30’s 40’s 50’s
14 25 19 19 13
SOURCE: NIELSEN CONSUMER & MEDIA VIEW Q1 2015 - 2018, IN % OF POPULATION

BASE: ALL PEOPLE AGE 10+; 11 MAJOR CITIES; FUNCTION OF INTERNET (SHOPPING ONLINE/BUYING THINGS) 27
ONLINE SHOP APPS ARE AMONG MUST-HAVE APPS
APART FROM SOCIAL
99% 63% 36%
NIELSEN CROSS PLATFORM 2018, INDONESIAN AGED 16+, 9 CITIES, N=1100 SAMPLE (FIELDWORK APRIL – MAY 2018) 28
AMONG HEAVY INTERNET USERS, 92% PEOPLE
SHOPPED ONLINE IN THE PAST 6 MONTHS
92%
13
Above IDR 1,000,000
30
IDR. 500,001 - IDR.

32 1,000,000
20
IDR. 250,001 - IDR.
21 500,000
17 17
IDR. 50,001 - IDR.
9 250,000
4
37
Everyday A few times in Once a week About once About once a Less than
a week every 2 weeks month once a month
NIELSEN CROSS PLATFORM 2017 & 2018, AGED 16+, 9 CITIES 29

IS #1 SELL
What do you usually buy online?
71%
44%
36%
32%
32%
32%
NIELSEN CROSS PLATFORM 2018, AGED 16+, 9 CITIES 30

BUT, IN TERMS OF VALUE, LIFESTYLE & EXPERIENCE
PRODUCTS ARE DOMINATING
TOTAL
IDR 35% 27% 16% 13% 4%

74 T
CONSUMER TRAVEL FASHION & IT & MOBILE COSMETICS
ELECTRONICS SPORTSWEAR
(ANNUAL
NUMBER BASED
ON STUDY 2016)
SOURCE: NIELSEN BRICKS & CLICKS SURVEY 31

ECOMMERCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE:
ONLINE SERVICES TOP THE ADEX CHART IN 1H’18
4.6 T 4.1 T 4.1 T 2.7 T 2.4 T

+63% +21% +47% +8% +7%
TOP 3 ONLINE SERVICES ADEX H1 2018 VS H1 2017
BUKALAPAK.COM 377.5 128%

TRAVELOKA.COM 341.0 -33%
SHOPEE.CO.ID 307.1 138%
SOURCE: NIELSEN AD INTEL 2017-2018

COMMERCIAL PRODUCT AD SPENDING ON TV & PRINT BASED ON GROSS RATE CARD (DOESN’T CALCULATE DISCOUNT, PROMO, BONUS, ETC.), IN RP BILLION 32
E-COMMERCE ALSO PUT THEIR TV
PLACEMENT INSIDE THE PROGRAM AND IT’S
HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TOTAL INDUSTRY
2,582,061 191,111
76% 67%
24% 33%
SOURCE: NIELSEN AD INTEL H1 2018 33

BIG DIGITAL ADS VOLUME EACH WEEK
WITH DIFFERENT PLACEMENT STRATEGY
1% 5% 11%
20%
4% 6%
2% 41% 7%
6%
59%
17%
14% 90%
17%
Youtube (various) tribunnews.com Youtube (various) kaskus.co.id Youtube (various) detik.com
id.yahoo.com uzone.id viva.co.id uzone.id
news.detik.com others bola.net others others
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL

134.9 MILLION IMPRESSION 40.7 MILLION IMPRESSION 26.9 MILLION IMPRESSION
Note: Youtube refers to official channel of TV stations

SOURCE: NIELSEN DIGITAL AD INTEL, 1-7 JULY, 2018 34
MORE HOUSEHOLD IS BUYING FMCG ONLINE
The penetration is doubled than last period, even higher for the younger HW. These HH show faster growth in
spending compare to mature HW.
PENETRATION VALUE
(%) (RP ‘000)
2,9
48.5%
HW >= 35
1,5 HW < 35
++
Total
+++
MAT Q3'17 MAT Q3'18 MAT Q3'17 MAT Q3'18
35
.. WHICH IS MORE TO PERSONAL CARE &
COSMETICS CATEGORIES
TOP FMCG CATEGORIES – MAT Q3’18

(SORTED BY PENETRATION%)
HW AGE < 35 HW AGE >= 35
SKINCARE SKINCARE
TOOTHPASTE DECORATIVE (COSMETICS)

DECORATIVE (COSMETICS) TOILET SOAP
BABY DIAPERS TOOTHPASTE
TOILET SOAP FACE POWDER
CURRENTLY ALL ARE PERSONAL CARE CATEGORIES
SOURCE: NIELSEN CPS DATA 36

NIELSEN E-COMMERCE
MEASUREMENT

E-COMMERCE MEASUREMENT – CURRENT PANEL
38
THE CONTRIBUTION OF E-COMMERCE IS
INCREASING, ALTHOUGH THE SHARE IS STILL <1%
E-COMMERCE VALUE SIZE CONTRIBUTION OF ONLINE VALUE %

(BILLION IDR) TO TOTAL FMCG
55 FMCG CATEGORIES + COSMETICS 55 FMCG CATEGORIES + COSMETICS

471
0.52% 0.50%
393
0.47%
+20%
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 YTD Jun 18
Notes: This e-commerce measurement currently includes 6

Cosmetics in offline channel covers only urban area 39
SUMMARY
THE MARKET & PURCHASE CHANNEL & AREA

FMCG TREND BEHAVIOR
• The fundamental of economy is • The stagnancy of FMCG is mostly driven • Minimarket is still the fastest growing
expected to grow steadily with from younger housewives as they tend channel helped by the store expansion.
relatively slower inflation rate. to have different consumption pattern.
• Area wise, Major cities are the main
• Consumer confidence relatively • They reduce purchase of instant food, source of FMCG declining mode. While
stagnant in the past 1.5 year , only RTD, and basic personal care. On the Rural area manage to show a better
increased during festive, but still willing to other hand, they put more focus on fresh growth thru smaller pack.
spend on big ticket purchase such as car food , leisure, smart phone ownership
• Though the contribution of Online
and motorcycle. (lifestyle), and online shopping
shopping is still very small for total
• FMCG industry is adjusted post festive • With this changing pattern, it is important FMCG, it is increasing quite fast.
period. However several category groups for FMCG manufacturers to watch out Penetration is doubled from last year with
show recovery indications especially and put more focus on these younger personal care and cosmetic as the top
Dairy and Cooking aid categories due to segment by creating a communication categories.
minimum price increase. and products that could relate to their
interest
Take the momentum by revisiting business model, route to market, sales and marketing strategy, human capital and
creating customer experience
40
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INDONESIA MACROECONOMY

& FMCG UPDATE Q3 2018

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Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

GDP GROWTH (%) INFLATION MAT (%)

2012 - 2016 2017 2018

5.07 5.4** 8,4 8,4

*) FORECASTED BY THE TRADING ECONOMICS

GDP CONTRIBUTION GDP SECTOR GROWTH

Investment Net Export/Import

2017 MAT18 YTD

TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, &SERVICES 4.2 1.8 1.0 98 0,0

INFLATION 3.6 2.9 1.9 96 -0,5

CCI CECI CEI

130 126 135

SOURCE: BANK INDONESIA 6

TREND OF RECESSIONARY TOP 5 MAJOR CONCERNS

Yes No CONCERN Q1 ‘18 Q2 ‘18 Q3 ‘18

THE ECONOMY 30% 32% 32%

HEALTH 13% 10% 15%

Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18

Q : Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment?

FUND FROM SAVING ACCOUNT + TIME DEPOSIT (IN BILLION RP)

2016 2017 2018

Source: Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan 2016–2017 / WWW.LPS.GO.ID

DINING OUT INCIDENCE DURABLE ELECTRONIC SMARTPHONE OWNERSHIP

Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18 Q3’16 Q3’17 Q3’18

BY SES (UPPER, MIDDLE, LOW)

CAR SALES MOTORCYCLE

SOURCE: ASSOCIATION NUMBERS (GAIKINDO AND AISI) 10

8.000 7.255 TOTAL PANEL 0

Total Upper (15%) Middle (54%) Lower (31%)

Source: Nielsen CPS Data – Additional Spending +79 FMCG Homepanel 11

STRONG GROWTH MODERATE GROWTH DECLINE GROWTH

Leisure Communi Food Health

13% Leisure 13%

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

(1) (2) (1)

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 MAT SEP'18

73,5 72,1 73,8 74,0 72,5 73,0

84,6 86,5 86,9 85,3 89,5 86,7

RETAIL SALES GROWTH VS. YA

35% OF FOOD 35% OF BEVERAGE 18% OF P. CARE 8% OF HOMECARE 3% OF PHARMA

11% OF INST. 8% OF 10% OF

13% OF 13% OF READY

FOOD BEVERAGE P. CARE HOMECARE PHARMA

STRONG GROWTH MARGINAL GROWTH DECLINE GROWTH

MINERAL WATER BISCUIT INSTANT NOODLE

LIQUID MILK COOKING OIL SWEETENED CONDENSED MILK

CHOCOLATE STOCK SOUP

IDR SPEND KG/L UNIT SHOPPING TRIP SPEND PER HH

INCREASE RELATIVE THE SAME DECREASE

SOURCE: NIELSEN CPS DATA – FMCG ONLY 19

HW AGE < 35 ( 22%) INSTANT FOOD

BY AGE (20-34, 35+)

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

MT Hyper/Super MT Minimarket General Trade H&B Medical H&B Cosmetic

SOURCE: NIELSEN RMS DATA 23

VALUE GROWTH (MAT 18) VOL UNIT GROWTH (MAT 18)

CONT : 37% MAJOR CITIES CONT : 31%

Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Among internet users

2015 2016 2017 2018