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There are several different types of Lead Time, but there are four
primary types of Lead Time for our purposes in a manufacturing
or assembly environment.
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Different models are used to manage inventory for products that are continually available (like
milk) or products available for limited time (like seed).The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
model determines the least cost level of inventory to carry, as well as costs. News Vendor models
are used for products only available for a single period.
EOQ and News Vendor models have proved useful for managing inventory for many years,
analyzing tradeoffs among major cost components. These models are robust and easy to
customize to particular industries. Their approach to costing is similar reflecting levels of
inventory, as well as shipping costs or quantity discounts.
Newsvendor Model
From sweatshirts in EOQ to summer dresses in Newsvendor. The big difference is that while
sweatshirts were continuous selling items, the demand for summer dresses is limited to summer
months. Once the summer season is over, the unsold dresses must be heavily discounted. You are
a local design firm that designs northwest-accented summer dresses, sources them from China
and sells them through retailers here.
The problem is that for a particular summer dress, total demand during the summer season is
hard to predict. All you can do is to make a guess, that is, develop a probability distribution of
demand. Let us generate our demand with the throw of a regular dice; it can be any number from
1 to 6, each with probability 1/6.
On the supply side, the lead time from your Chinese supplier is long. There is no possibility of
making multiple orders. You make one order before the summer season starts, sell as many as
you can during the season and then whatever is left is discounted. Let us say that per unit
purchase cost c is $80. For any units that you are able to sell per unit revenue r is $100. For the
units you are not able to sell during the season, let us say that you can discount them and are able
to sell them at a per unit salvage value s of $30.
The big decision is the order quantity S of dresses you should order from your Chinese supplier
at the beginning of the summer season.
The Trade-off
If you order a very large quantity, there is a bigger chance that you will not be able to sell all of
them. There will be excess units at the end of the season that you will have to discount. You will
lose money on them. On the other hand, if you order a small quantity, there is a bigger chance
that you will be short. That is, there will be some demand you will not be able to satisfy. You will
not be able to make as much money as you could have.
The order quantity decision resolves this trade-off between the expected cost of having excess
inventory and the expected cost of falling short. We will call the sum of these two costs as
Mismatch cost. The optimal order quantity will minimize mismatch cost.
Marginal Costs
To resolve this trade-off, we start with defining marginal costs of excess and shortage.
Marginal Cost of excess Ce is defined as the cost of having one unit excess. You bought this unit
for purchase cost of c=$80, were not able to sell it during the season and then had to discount it
down to the salvage value of s=$30. The cost to you is $80-$30=$50. That is, in this setting,
Ce=c-s.
Marginal Cost of shortage Cs is defined as the cost of having one unit short. Had you bought this
unit for purchase cost of c=$80, you would have been able to sell it during the season for a
revenue of r=$100. We say, that the cost to you for being one unit short is $100-$80=$20. That
is, in this setting, Cs=r-c.
Service Level
Service level is the chance that you will be able to meet all the demand in a single period
(summer season). Suppose you bought an order quantity S=3 units. Recall that demand is any
number between 1 and 6 with equal probability 1/6. In this case, you will be able to meet all the
demand only if demand is either 1 unit, 2 units or 3 units. That is, the probability that demand is
less than or equal to S=3 units. This probability is known as cumulative probability and is given
by the sum of the probabilities that demand is 1, demand is 2, and demand is 3 =
(1/6)+(1/6)+(1/6)=3/6=1/2. That is, if you buy S=3 units, you will provide a service level of
50%.
Demand 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Cumulative 1/6+1/6 2/6+1/6 3/6+1/6 4/6+1/6 5/6+1/6
1/6
Probability =2/6 =3/6 =4/6 =5/6 =6/6=1
Single-period model tells us that, given the marginal costs of excess and shortage, Ce and Cs, the
optimal service level is given by (Cs/(Cs+Ce). In our case, the optimal service level is equal to 20/
(20+50)= 0.2857.
Optimal order quantity S* is the minimum size of the order that will be able to provide the
optimal service level. Going by the above table, if you buy, for example, S=1, you will be able to
provide a service level of 1/6=0.1667 which is less than the optimal service level we wish to
provide. If we buy 2, service level is 2/6=0.3333 and we will be able to satisfy the optimal
service level requirement of 0.2857. Therefore S*=2.
Rule: compute optimal service level and find the minimum value of demand for which
cumulative probability, for the first time, equals or exceeds optimal service level. That is the
optimal order quantity.
The demand distribution we considered above is a discrete distribution because demand can only
take a limited number of values. In some real settings, it is easier to work with the assumption
that the demand follows Normal distribution with a given mean and standard deviation. Normal
is a continuous distribution because demand can take any value. In this case, we can use the
following formulas:
Given per unit revenue r, per unit purchase cost c and per unit salvage value s:
Given a normally distributed demand with given mean and standard deviation
Order quantity that can provide required service level = mean + z*standard deviation
Essentially, there are two fundamental decisions that help us manage inventory. They are:
Newsvendor Model
We decide on how much to order depending on the cost of over-stocking and the cost of under-
stocking. For example, say you are company that sells cakes. A cake costs you $1.24 to prepare
and you sell the cake at $2.49. But, if you cannot sell the cake within 24 hours, then you have to
sell it to another local vendor at $0.99. In this case, the
Cost of under-stocking (Cu) is: $1.25 (the profit that you lose in not being able to sell the cake)
Cost of over-stocking (Co) is: $0.25 (amount that you lose because you have to sell at a discount
to a vendor)
The optimal service level (SL*) is: Cu/(Cu+Co). The optimal quantity that you need to order is
the smallest quantity Q at which the service level exceeds the optimal service level (SL*).
How can I get the service levels? You can get the demand distribution and the service levels from
the past data.
The above formula is also called the newsvendor formula. This is used when the product has a
limited shelf life and inventory cannot be carried over.
The other approach to determine quantity is called the Economic Order Quantity model.
In such a scenario, I will always order whenever the inventory goes to zero. Immediately the
order comes and my inventory reaches Q again. The rate at which inventory goes to zero is the
throughput rate (R) itself.
So, the time between two orders is Q/R
Every order has certain fixed costs associated with it. For example, even if you order 1 unit of an
AC there will be some $2000 of fixed costs (assume fixed cost will be a step cost). So, therefore
you want t order as many units as possible so that the fixed costs of an order are spread over
large number of units.
But at the same time, if you order more number of units then you have to bear more costs for the
inventory carrying costs. Let’s look at what is an optimal solution for under this trade-off
situation.
Fixed cost paid per period = S*R/Q (S is the fixed cost for every order)
Cost of holding inventory (H) = cost of keeping one unit in inventory for a certain period
The sum of both fixed cost and the cost of holding the inventory has to minimum. Under such
conditions the optimal quantity to order is the Economic Order Quantity (Q*) = sqrt (2RS/H). If
you centralize your inventory, then it helps in inventory optimization because: if demand
increases by 2 then quantity increase by only sqrt(2).
This can be rounded off to the nearest packaging standards that are required for your supplier.
Now, let’s negate one of the two assumptions we made in the EOQ Model.
Let’s say we have a lead time of 3 weeks before the order comes.
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Lead Time is the length of days between when an order is placed and
the date the goods are available for use. The largest impact to lead
time accuracy is found by comparing expected receipt date to actual
receipt date for each purchase order. In simple terms, the variance is
calculated as the absolute value of the difference [expected or
requested receipt date – actual receipt date] for each line on the
purchase order. These variances in days across multiple purchase
orders establish the need for lead time accuracy testing and lead time
forecasting.
Suppliers provide an estimate of lead time, but these numbers are not
always accurate. The differences between your expected receipt date
and actual receipt date can become expensive from the resulting
unplanned over stocks, out of stocks, and deflated consumer opinions.
Lead time tracking and lead time forecasting are mission critical to the
success of your supply chain. Lead Time Forecasting, like Demand
Forecasting, should use a set of math algorithms to calculate the
correct lead time days to use in planning purchase orders. Also, like
Demand Forecasting, the Lead Time Forecast should move up and
down according to changes in market, business influences and
seasonality of product.
While some companies use a single lead time forecast number for all
vendors, the reality is that all vendors and products are not the same.
Start reviewing how many products have a bad lead time that is to
short, which means you run out and have lost sales. Calculate your
lost sales for those out-of stock days (you do have a method to
calculate lost sales, right?) and sum the total lost sales across six
months to see how much money you are losing. Now look at all those
skulocs that had overstock where the actual lead time was less than
the expected lead time across the last six months. Sum the cost of the
excess inventory and, multiply the result by 10%, and then you have a
conservative estimate of your overstock carrying cost. In reality, your
actual costs are probably double that number. Finally, add the
overstock cost and the lost sales cost together to see a six month
total. How much profit did you lose this past year due to poor
lead time forecasting?
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-2) Materials Handling
POWERED BY
Equipments used:
While it is true that in the short run companies that do not spend time
maintaining their equipment well can make more money, in the long run their
equipment will end up performing more poorly, and they will end up losing a
great deal of money.
Preventive maintenance doesn’t just increase what managers can get out of
equipment, it also makes it possible for managers to save money on power costs.
Equipment that is poorly maintained typically requires more electricity or fuel to
run.
This increase in electricity or fuel use may seem trivial at first, but it typically
ends up costing companies a great deal. While these costs may end up remaining
hidden, they still end up negatively impacting the bottom line.
Quality equipment only stays quality equipment if it receives the level of care
it deserves
Companies that are able to produce their products on a reliable schedule or offer
reliable services find themselves acquiring very good reputations. Businesses
live and die based on their reputations and anything companies can do to
enhance their reputations is something they should at least consider.
While not all reputation boosting moves are worth taking, preventive
maintenance yields so many benefits in so many areas at so little cost that it is
clearly an intelligent strategy for companies to adopt.
Companies that neglect their equipment and ignore their reputations may
temporarily prosper in the short run, but ultimately they will be displaced by
reliable companies with excellent reputations. Only companies that work on
cultivating long-term positive relationships with customers have a good chance
of surviving in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
Although television and newspaper advertisements certainly have their place,
nothing advertises a company better than word of mouth. Building up loyal
customers willing to engage in word of mouth advertising is an essential move if
companies are to have any chance of achieving long-term success.
A lot of the drive behind the new emphasis on preventive maintenance stems
from fundamental changes in management philosophy. A new management
philosophy known as Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) is beginning to
become more popular with many CEOs and managers.
The main key is to use appropriate software and to spend adequate amounts of
time training staff. The software is important because preventive maintenance is
not really realistic on a large scale without appropriate software tools.
Preventative Maintenance
The key tenet behind preventative maintenance is the idea that a piece of
equipment becomes more and more likely to fail as it ages. Usually, the
intervals between scheduled inspections decrease as a machine becomes
older. Additionally, preventative maintenance also takes into account the
periods of time when equipment sees most frequent use when determining a
schedule. For example, an air conditioning system might be inspected once
per year in May or June, at the beginning of summer, while a heating system
is instead inspected in October or November as winter begins. Today, a
number of software products exist which can help manufacturers efficiently
schedule inspections depending on the age and use of the equipment.
There are four questions which can be asked regarding a piece of equipment
when determining whether or not preventative maintenance is the proper
strategy to employ.
2. Does failure of the equipment come with safety risks? Is the equipment
regularly operated by human workers? Would those human workers be in
danger of injury, illness or death were the equipment to fail? Alternately,
could failure cause major property or environmental damage?
4. Does the equipment being down disrupt business? Can the facility or
company still be productive without the equipment, or not? Would the
equipment being down force employees to work overtime or create
unnecessary, unproductive downtime?
If the answer to any one of these four questions is “Yes,” the equipment is
probably a good candidate for preventive maintenance. However, if the
answer to all four is “No” – it does not perform a critical function, has no
safety risk, is inexpensive to repair, and does not disrupt business when down
– reactive or run-to-fail maintenance may be the lowest cost option to be
used.
Advantages of Preventative Maintenance
Contact ProAxion® today to learn more about both the advantages and
drawbacks of preventive maintenance and its role as a possible solution
within the overall RCM process.
Much has been written about lean manufacturing and the lean enterprise—
enough that nearly all readers are familiar with the concepts as well as the
phrases themselves. But what about lean maintenance?
The definition
The best starting point is to define lean maintenance:
That is lean maintenance in a nutshell, albeit a rather large nut (except for
a few details that were omitted here but will be covered later in the article).
Let’s discuss the highpoints of this definition to be sure everyone
understands the terms used:
• 5S process. There are five activities for improving the work place
environment: sort (remove unnecessary items), straighten (organize), scrub
(clean everything), standardize (standard routine to sort, straighten, and
scrub), and spread (expand the process to other areas).
• Work order system. This system is used to plan, assign, and schedule all
maintenance work and to acquire equipment performance and reliability
data for development of equipment histories. The work order is the
backbone of a proactive maintenance organization’s work execution,
information input, and feedback from the CMMS. All work must be captured
on a work order—8 hours on the job equals 8 hours on work orders. The
types of work orders will include categories such as planned/scheduled,
corrective, emergency, etc. The work order will be the primary tool for
managing labor resources and measuring department effectiveness.
Other terms
Here are descriptions of some of the terms related to the maintenance and
reliability engineering group:
• Root cause failure analysis. One of the most important functions of the
maintenance engineering group is RCFA. Failures are seldom planned for and
usually surprise both maintenance and production personnel and they
nearly always result in lost production. Finding the underlying, or root, cause
of a failure provides an organization with a solvable problem, removing the
mystery of why equipment failed. Once the root cause is identified, a fix can
be developed and implemented.
There are many methods available for performing RCFA, such as the
Ishikawa, or Fishbone, diagramming technique; the events and causal factor
analysis; change analysis; barrier analysis; management oversight and risk
tree (MORT) approach; human performance evaluation; and the Kepner-
Tregoe problem-solving and decision-making process.
Leadership changes
The foregoing provides a good, basic definition of lean maintenance by
describing the activities and job responsibilities of those involved in the lean
maintenance operation. Lean maintenance is also about fundamental
changes in attitudes and leadership roles. In the lean environment the shop
floor-level employee is recognized as the company’s most valuable asset.
Management and supervisory roles change from that of directing and
controlling, to a role of supporting.
As we can notice from the above TQM process steps itemized to ensure
the smooth running of the TQM implementation in the system.if it is
well manage critically ,.it will go along way in achieving the positive
outcome or benefit ,that it is meant to achieved and reward shall be
great.
Customer Focus
TQM is a customer-based vision of company management to increase the value of goods
and services offered to customers. Companies will collect and review customer data
regarding satisfaction on goods and services, current demands for new products and
suggested changes for existing products. Developing a customer-focused strategy of
improving products and meeting customer needs helps companies achieve high TQM
process.
Planning Process
Using the information gathered from their customer-focused strategy, companies will plan
their business processes to meet the desires of customers. Changing production materials,
correcting product flaws and creating new product features are part of the planning
process of TQM. Businesses must understand that product quality is based on the
perception of customers; planning and deciding how to achieve this perception are
important in TQM.
Process Management
Once the planning process is complete, management can focus on the actual production
process of TQM. Process management includes reviewing products and services to ensure
they are consistent in quality standards, to ensure products continue to meet customer
needs, and to ensure products are available in all markets. Managers must also review the
cost of raw materials and production methods, ensuring that delivering high-quality goods
can be done at relatively cheap costs.
Process Improvements
TQM is driven by the understanding that no consumer market continues to operate at the
same level of demand every year. As the business cycle moves through booms and busts,
customers change preference and incomes change; companies must be willing to adjust to
these changes to ensure TQM for their products and services. Improving processes to
reduce costs, finding cheaper raw materials or reducing labor costs are ways businesses
may improve processes to remain competitive.
Total Participation
All aspects of TQM can be achieved only through total participation from all employees of
the company. All division and employees must commit to a customer focus and desire to
produce the best goods and services to meet consumer demands. Managers must train,
educate and develop the customer focus strategy in each employee working in the
company. Solid communication lines must also be created between management and
employees; this allows the company to react quickly to any issues that affect the TQM
process in the company.