Arab Spring Causes Effects and Future PR

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF
THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
SULEIMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES
RECEP ERGÜN
THESIS WORK
Specialty 05B020200 – «International Relations»
Kaskelen 2016
1
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF
THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
SULEIMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES
«Allowed to defense»
Head of “International Relations”
Department
Doctor of ph-m. s., prof.Assanbayev M
________________________
THESIS WORK
Theme: « ARAB SPRING: CAUSES, EFFECTS AND FUTURE

PREDICTIONS (The effects of the radical groups in the derailment of
the Arab Spring) »
Specialty 5B020200 - «International Relations»
Submitted by: Ergün R.
Scientific supervisor: Zhussipbek G.
Monitoring of
Implementation ___________
Kaskelen 2016
2
For Aylan Kurdi…
3
Contents
Abbreviations…………………………………………………...…………...5
Abstract………………………………………………………….……………6
Introduction……………………………………………………….…….........7
BEFORE THE ARAB SPRING…………………………………………...10

Middle East Historical Background……………………………….…………10
Countries………………………………………….………………………….10
 Syria………………………………………………………………..…10
 Egypt………………………………………………………………….13
 Tunisia………………………………………………………………...15
 Libya……………………………………………………….………….16
REVOLUTIONS………………………………………………….………...18
 Process to the Revolutions……………………………………………18
SYRIA: FROM REVOLUTION TO CIVIL WAR………………………23
REFUGEE CRISIS……………………………………….………………...29
CAUSES OF THE ARAB SPRING……………………………………….33
 Historical Causes……………………………………………………...33
 Social Causes………………………….………………………………33
 Economic Causes……………………………………………………..34
 Political Causes……………………………………………………….34
MEANING OF THE ARAB SPRING…………………………………….35
CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTS………………………………………...36
CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………..40
REFERENCES…………………………………………….…………..........41
4
ABREVIATIONS
WW 1: World War 1
WW 2: World War 2
USA: United States of America
USSR: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
ME: Middle East
UN: United Nations
NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
UK: United Kingdom
ISIL: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
PYD: Democratic Union Party
EU: European Union
UNHRC: United Nations Human Rights Council
GNC: Great National Congress
5
ABSTRACT
Arab countries have been colonialized by the big powers after WW 1.
Ottoman Empire had been ruling almost all Arabic countries for many
centuries. But after it started to collapse, European powers kept their eyes on
this area. Because these countries are holding a huge oil and gas reserves
and they are located in geopolitically very important place of the world. Big
powers of the world at that time, such as England or France knew that if
they could control these areas, they would control the trade of the world.
That is why; Middle East has always been a crush place for big powers in
the world politics.
This paper will focus on the importance of the Arabic countries, and the
process to the Arab Spring revolutions, public’s situation before the
revolutions and after the revolutions.
Significance of the work is to give future predictions for Arab countries in

the Middle East, Syrian problem and of course one of the biggest current
problems of the world, Refugee Crisis.
The aim of this paper is to defend that radical groups in the region led the
revolutions go off the rails. And specifically there will be 4 countries on this
paper examined under the study of Arab spring where there have been 3
leader and regime changes; Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and where there is a
civil war and its president remains his seat; Syria.
Key Words: Middle East, Revolutions, Arab Spring, Democracy, Freedom
6
Introduction
Allocation of the natural resources in the world is considered one of the
biggest problems of the humanity. There have been 2 world wars for this
which was catastrophic especially for the Europe. After WW 2, USA took
the hegemonic power role of the world from England. This means that all
these resources must go to the West as it used to go before, and west means
USA and England. So governance of the region, Middle East must have
remained under the control of the USA.1 According to the official numbers
Middle East possesses 65.3% of the all oil resources in the world. Other
regions’ numbers are: 9.1% South and Middle America, 7.3% Africa, 6.2%
Former Soviet Republics, 4.2% Asia-Pacific and 1.8% Europe. At the same
time Middle East Countries own 36.1% of the all gas resources in the
world.2 The point here is that as a reason of this huge amount or gas and oil
resources, big powers especially western powers after Ottoman Empire
collapsed, kept always an eye on this area.
The first attempt of the west on the region was in 1798 by Napoleon
Bonaparte to cut off England’s connections toward to Indian Ocean by
invading Egypt. This attempt is called fist colonialism movement of French
History.3 But this invasion was beaten back by solidarity of Ottoman and
British forces.4
To sum up, we can remark 3 reasons what make Middle East the focus
point for the world and why it is always in chaos;
 It provides most of the petrol demand of the world,
 3 most followed religions; Christianity, Islam and Judaism have originated
in this region that is why 3 religions have tried to control the region for ages,
 The region is located in the middle of Europe, Asia and Africa, which makes
it very important strategic position.5
For these reasons, France and England after Ottoman Empire collapsed in
the WW 1, split up the region. France took control of the North African
countries and England took control of rest of the region. After these
governmental changes in the Middle East, many of the countries gained their
independences. But the problem is here that while determining and shaping
the countries, socio-cultural causes were ignored and countries borders
determined by the big powers on the table. And also England always tried to
1
Noam Chomsky, “Amerikan Müdaheleciliği”, Çeviren: Doğan Taylan-Barış Zeren, Istanbul; Toplum
Yayınları,2003, p;325
2
Yesevi, “Mısır’ın Baharı ve Enerji Politikaları”, 21. Yüzyıl Türkiye Esntitüsü Dergisi, 2013 Temmuz, p;26-31
3
Güler Suda,E. Zeynep, Arap milliyetçiliği: Mısır ve Nasırcılık Tahrir Meydanında Korkuyu Yenmek,
İstanbul:Yazılama Yayınevi,2011, P:32
4
Yaramış, Ahmet, “Mısır’da İngiliz Sömürgecilik Anlayışı: Cromer Örneği(1883-1907)” Afyon: Afyon Kocatepe
Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Yıl:2007, Cilt:9, Sayı:2, Aralık Dönemi, p:127
5
Tayyar Arı, Geçmişten Günümüze Orta Doğu: Siyaset, Savaş, Diplomasi, Bursa: MKM Yayınları, Yıl: 2012, Cilt:1,
p: 21-23
7
control these countries after they gained their independences. For instance;
in 1942 England’s ambassador to Egypt captured the palace and gave an
ultimatum to the government and demanded the resignation of the prime
minister and accused him being an ally of Germany during WW 2. As a
result in public this was seen as a national insulting of Egypt and led to
protests against England forces in the Egypt.6 Another important reason that
Arab people in general in the Middle East thought that they were insulted is
the establishing of the Israel with the help of USA and UK. After WW 2
France and England lost their powers in the region and as in the rest of the
world, the cold war came to the region between 2 super powers of the world;
USA and USSR.
On all these aspects, Arab countries in the middle East have always been
in chaos, from Morocco to Yemen and Gulf states, although gulf states
could keep stable comparing to the other states in the region, because they
have oil and gas resources so they could manage to give to their people more
wealth and better life conditions rather than others.
After WW 2 and till 2000s almost all Arab countries have been governed
by the kings or dictatorships, or by any family such as Assad family in
Syria. And this led sometimes to civil unrests in the countries but it never
came to the level to change the government or the regime itself, till 2010.
On December 17, 2010, a Tunisian local vendor Mohammed Bouazizi
who was struggling and suffering and trying to make a living by selling stuff
on the streets, until local police officers came and confiscated his goods and
outraged him in front of the people. After this humiliation Mohammed set
himself on fire in the public and committed suicide, to protest
unemployment, bad life standards and corruption. Mohammed Bouazizi
probably had no idea that his this action would spark huge demonstrations in
almost all Arabic states and overthrow the regimes and dictatorships. After
Mohammed set himself on fire, people went to the streets to protest
Tunisian’s President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali’s governance and corruption
and restriction of free expression and political parties in the government.
And these demonstrations spreaded throughout the country and at the end
Ben Ali was forced to leave the office and country, he and his family fled
the country and left everything behind and Saudi Arabia let them live in
their country. This was maybe the first action which showed all Arab society
that if they go outside, to the streets they would have power to force their
rulers who were in power for a long time to leave the office and to have fair
elections. So, After Tunisian demonstrations appeared in Libya, Egypt,
6
Yunus Özger, “Mısır’ın İdari ve Sosyo-Ekonomik Yapısına Dair II. Abdülhamit’e Sunulan Bir Layiha”, İstanbul:
History Studies Journal, Yıl: 2010, Orta Doğu Özel Sayısı, p:322
8
Syria, Yemen and in some Gulf States but it didn’t influence Gulf States as
much as it did in others.7
The Term “Arab Spring” came to the usage after demonstrations started.
It was reference to the revolts against communist regimes which had a
domino effect on all Eastern European countries, and after revolts Eastern
European countries gained their independences from USSR and engaged
their system to the global market and economy with democratic
governments. Scholars referred the same term “Spring” to the Arab revolts
at the beginning, because many believed in such changes like what
happened in Eastern Europe in 1989. However many didn’t know what to do
next after the revolutions. And Arab states were not a monotype states like
Eastern European states. They include many different religious and ethnic
minorities and these all minorities have different ideas on governance of the
country. Unlike Eastern European countries, Arabic ones didn’t have a
common vision on governance after revolts and that is why the term “Arab
Spring” is criticized for not being accurate an result oriented.8
In Tunisia, Libya and Egypt Arab Spring had its most powerful effect, it
overthrown the long term dictatorships in such a short period of time. Also
in Syria it started very powerful but then many different countries involved
in Syrian Revolution like USA, Russia, and Turkey. Results of the Arab
Spring were not that good as it was expected. First of all it dragged Libya,
Egypt, Syria and Iraq into a civil war and it caused appearance of radical
groups in the region with the help of lack of governance. These radical
groups, such as El-Qaida and ISIS pulled Arab Spring off the road and
people of these states started thank their previous status under the
dictatorships. In this paper, it is going to be defended that, involving of the
other states in the Arab Spring didn’t help it to work out, even though it
effected it very bad way which caused an endless civil war especially in
Syria-Iraq region and it helped ISIS to grow up. Finally this work is going to
focus on the other biggest result of the Arab Spring; the Refugee Crisis,
which European Countries failed to host them and is still facing with this
unstoppable problem.
7
Primoz Manfreda, “How the Arab Spring Started”, on http://middleeast.about.com/od/tunisia/tp/How-The-
Arab-Spring-Started.htm
8
“Demystifying the Arab Spring; Parsing the Differences Between Tunisia, Egypt and Libya” by Lisa Anderson,
This Article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt
9
BEFORE THE ARAB SPRING
Middle East Historical Background

Until WW 1 most of the territories of the Middle East belonged to the
Ottoman Empire. For the geographic reasons Syria was captured first by
Ottoman Sultan Selim I in 1516 from the Mamlukes and Syria remained
Ottoman territory till 1918. Syria became one of the biggest provinces of the
Ottoman empire, it included today’s some South-East part of the Turkey,
some west part of the Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority,
Gaza, Jordan, and Gaza Strip.9
Countries
SYRIA:
During 4 ages under the control of Ottoman rule, Syria experienced its
golden age. But in 1798 Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Egypt and then tried
to attack on Syria. However Ottoman general Cezzar Ahmet Pasha pushed
back France troops in Acre. After France withdrawn its troops from Syria,
the governor of the Egypt Kavalalı Mehmet Ali Pasha who was appointed
by the Sultan in Constantinople, with the help of chaos declared his own
dynasty in Egypt and took control of the Syrian province.10 But Ali Pasha’s
presence in Syria didn’t last long. With the help of European powers,
Ottoman forced Ali Pasha to take a step back and Syrian again became
Ottoman territory.11
During WW 1, Syria was the military center of the Ottoman Empire in
the region. Ottoman general Cemal Pasha was appointed as a head of the
troops in Syria. He was suspicious about some Arab leaders in the region
that they were working with the British and French spies behind the Sultan.
Cemal Pasha was criticized being paranoid was indeed it turned out that he
was right about that. On 27th of July 1918 Sherif Hussein declared riot
against Ottoman Empire with the support from England. And In 1918 his
son Faisal captured Syria and established an Arab State there. It was
considered one of the first steps for the independences of the Arab countries
among Arab nationalist scholars.12 However this Arab state, despite Arab
9
U.S Library of Congress, ”Syria-Ottoman Empire” http://countrystudies.us/syria/7.htm
10
Şinasi Altundal, “Kavalalı Mehmet Ali Paşa İsyanı, (Mısır Meselesi 1831-1841), Ankara:Türk Tarih Kurumu
Yay., 1988, p.57
11
Nevin Yazıcı, “Suriye Siyasi Tarihi”, 21. Yüzyıl Türkiye Enstitüsü Dergisi, 29th of May 2012
12
M.Derviş Kılınçkaya, “Osmanlı Yönetimindeki Topraklarda Arap Milliyetçiliğinin Doğuşu ve Suriye”, Ankara,
Atatürk Araştırma Merkezi yayınları, 2004, p.93
10
leaders in the region declared Faisal the king of the Syrian territory,
including Palestine, Syria and Lebanon, didn’t live long because according
to the secret agreement Sykes-Picot between Allies of the WW 1 gave each
Palestine, Syria and Lebanon to the France mandate governance.13
During France mandate period, country was divided into 5 different
parts, where 5 different minorities live, in order to weaken the Arab
Nationalist movements. But this division in the country did not help France
to govern it easier, the opposite it made governance of the Syria much more
difficult and bloody. In the uprisings against France mandate, more than
60000 people killed only between 1925-27. And France could not deal with
the suppressing the rebels. In 1928 France had to recognize the National
group of Formation as a legal formation of the Arabs in the Syria. 14
At the beginning of the WW 2, France surrendered Germany and there
has been established Vichy France. Therefore Syria got under the control of
Germany’s Vichy France. However British and Free France forces attacked
Syria and gave to Syria its independence. In 1943 first elections was held
and Shukri al-Quvatli became the first president ever of the Independent
Syria. After a short time USA and USSR recognize Syria as an independent
state and in the UN Security Council forced France to withdraw its forces
from the Syria. In 1946 France and England made an agreement and they
both compromised to withdraw their forces from France and Lebanon.
Thereby 25 years France Mandate ended in Syria.15
After Syria gained its independence, Arab nationalist movements
strengthened and gathered under the Ba’ath movement. In essence Ba’ath
Party has two main ideas; to awake the Arab nationalism and to create a
common socialist Arab state. As can be seen here, Ba’ath is a left wing
political party. Between 1949-1970 Syria was governed by mostly generals
and it faced many military coups. During 1955-57 Ba’ath Party gained many
supporters with in and the outside of the country, in the Arab world. With
the help of this Syria and Egypt established United Arab Republic. But this
republic’s life was short because of Egypt’s interventions in Syria’s internal
affairs. In 1961 colonel Kerim al-Nakhlavi seized the power in Syria and
dissolved the Union with Egypt.16
Until 1970, there has been a power struggle in the Ba’ath Party. Different
ethnic groups tried to take the control of the party. From the Alawites side of
the army Hafez al-Assad did a military coup and took the control of the
government. Till that time Alawites have never had such a power in the
13
Nevin Yazıcı, Ibid.
14
William L. Cleveland, “Modern Ortadoğu Tarihi”, İstanbul, Agora Kitaplığı Yayınları, 2008, p.243-244
15
16
Nikolaos Van Dam, “Suriyede İktidar Mücadelesi”, Istanbul, İletişim yayınları, 2000, p.60-62
11
army. Also after the defeat in 6 days war with Israel, Salah Cedid and his
prime minister in the government Attasi lost their powers and Hafeez al-
Assad, as a minister of defence and air force commander came forward in
Syria’s administration.17
In 1970 Hafeez al-Assad took the control of the country with a military
coup. He became the first Alawites president of the Syria. And He stayed in
the power till he died in 2000. After him his son Bashar al-Assad came to
power. Hafeez al-Assad at the beginning of his presidency, tried to create a
government which could unite and include all the segments of the society.
Majority of the population of Syrian is Arabs with 90.3%, and 9.7%
includes Kurds, Armenians and others. And 86% of the country is Muslims
and among Muslim population 74% is Sunni Muslims and 12% is Shia
Muslims, or in other words Alawites. Alawites are a little minority is in the
country but in the governance they possess everything. This has been the
biggest problem of the country since 1980s till present time. 18
Furthermore, suppressing of the other groups in the country had been
very bloody. One of the bloodiest massacres of the Hafeez al-Assad’s
massacre is the Hama Massacre. Hama city was the headquarter of the
Muslim Brotherhoods group which declined the Alawites spreading in the
governance of Syria. The group’s assassination attempt against Hafeez
failed. And after this Hafeez Assad took his revenge by killing Sunni
Muslims in the prisons. But this didn’t stop the clashes between Sunni rebels
and Alawites government. As a final step, in 2nd of February 1982 Hafeez al-
Assad finished the clashes by attacking the city Hama with the all units of
the Syrian Army, which caused 38.000 civil killings, mostly Sunni Muslims.
In Hama Massacre most of the buildings in the city was razed and as a result
800.000 people had to flee the country and became refugees.
Hafeez’s period in Syria was bloody, and other groups of the Syrian
society were under pressure, like Kurds in the Northern Syria didn’t have
their identities for a long time, and they still don’t have. Sunni Muslims,
actually the majority of the population had come under pressure, their
leaders were killed or exiled. To sum up Hafeez from 1970 till 2000, ruled
country under his iron military junta. After he died, his son Basher al-Assad
came to the office, who still remains his place in presidency despite civil
war and rebels.
17
Syria, http://www.countrystudies.us/
18
USA Relations with Syria, March 20,2014, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3580.htm
12
EGYPT
Egypt has been always the most important Muslim country in the world. On
June 4, 2009, in his visit to Egypt American president Barrack Obama
mentioned that he is visiting first Muslim country even he visited Turkey
before that. In Cairo, Obama talked to the all Muslim world as from the
center or the biggest Muslim country. In his speech he said that:
“I have come here to seek a new beginning between the United
States and Muslims around the world; one based upon mutual interest
and mutual respect; and one based upon the truth that America and
Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition. Instead, they
overlap, and share common principles – principles of justice and
progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings.”19
Besides being the capital of the Islamic world, Egypt is considered the
mother of the world and humanity. First empires, colonies, inventions
mostly are originated in Egypt. Egypt had been a part of Greek, Pers, Rome,
Ottoman and Britain civilizations. Also geographically, Egypt is located in a
very strategic place, where Africa meets Asia, and Mediterranean Sea meets
Red Sea and where Suez Canal was opened which changed Ottoman
Empire’s destiny and made its collapse easier.
After conquering Syria, Ottoman Sultan Selim I turned his way to the
Egypt and just 1 year later than Syria, Egypt became Ottoman territory in
1517. But after 1805 the viceroy of the Egypt Kavalalı Mehmet Ali Pasha
came to power in Egypt and he launched a successful revolt movement
against Ottoman Empire and established his own dynasty in Egypt which
ruled country for the next 150 years. Kavalalı is considered the founder of
the modern Egypt. Kavalalı made appropriate reforms to Western norms in
many areas of life. He opened the military academy which is the backbone
of the Egyptian modern army. Ottoman Empire recognized his dynasty as an
autonomous government in 1867 after he died. From this time till 1914
Egypt was officially Ottoman’s territory but in fact it was governed by
Britain since 1882. But Britain sovereignty on Egypt didn’t last long. In
1922 Egypt gained its independence and established Egyptian kingdom
which lived till 1952. In 1953 Republican supporters took control of the
country and Muhammad Naguib became the first president of the Republic
of Egypt. But Republican revolution didn’t bring equality and justice to the
Egypt’s people. In 1956 Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser became the president
of the country and remained till 1970. Nasser was the founder of the United
19
Text: Obama’s Speech in Cairo, June 4, 2009,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/politics/04obama.text.html
13
Arab Republic and Nasser was a powerful figure of the Pan-Arabism.
Nasser was the head of the Arab countries against Israel but in 1967 war
Egypt took a heavy defeat from Israel. And Israel enlarged its territories into
the Egypt. Nasser died in 1970 and other colonel from Free Officers
Movement Anwar Sadat became the president. Sadat followed more
peaceful way in his presidency. He signed the agreement Camp David in
1979 with the Israel which Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine members
and other hardliners found this as a national humiliation. And in 1981 Sadat
was assassinated by a member of Islamic Jihad. After Sadat, his vice
president Hosni Mubarak came to power and stayed there till the Arab
Spring.20
The dispersion of the Egypt population is not heterogeneous as Syria’s
population. 90 % of its population is Sunni Muslims, and 9% is Christian
groups. And it has the biggest population in the region 82 million by 2011.
Egypt’s transition to the republic from kingdom didn’t bring a real
democracy to Egypt. New regime was built on security not on democracy.
Because it was a military coup against the king and after the king since
Nasser all presidents of the Egypt were military background and also all
viceroys and district governors elected among police or military retired
people. Especially during Nasser period, the biggest political and social
group of the Egypt Muslim Brotherhood, and other Islamic and pro-
democracy groups were suppressed by the military and police forces. And
there was no right to create a political party in the country because of the
one party regime till Sadat. Sadat transformed country partially to the
multiparty system but Muslim Brotherhood was banned during Sadat Period
as well. In 1967 state of emergency was declared and all meetings and
demonstrations banned indefinitely, people were detained without bringing
to any court. This situation caused the entrenchment of a police state with a
strict security policies and it led to a serious of human rights violations
systematically in the country.21 And this situation didn’t get any better
during the next president Hosni Mubarak’s period, who ruled the country
between 1981-2011, with strict rules which made it difficult to make Egypt
society a multiparty system. Mubarak suppressed his opponents, especially
Islamic groups and Muslim Brotherhood which appeals to a large segment
of the society to sustain his presidency.22
20
Ülke Profili: Mısır, January 26, 2014,
http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/ulke-profili/ulke-profili-misir
21
Yavuz Güçtür, “Devrimden Darbeye Mısır’da İnsan Hakları”, Seta Rapor, 2016, Seta Yayınları, Istanbul, p.9-10
22
Yavuz Güçtür, Ibid., p.11
14
TUNISIA
The first country where Arab Spring’s spark was ignited, Tunisia came
under the control of the Ottoman Empire little bit later than Egypt and Syria,
in 1574. Ottoman Empire placed 4 thousands of Janissaries in Tunisia to
defend it from the outside invaders. The Sultan in Constantinople preferred
not to intervene in the internal affairs of Tunisia. But the country was ruled
by the Pashas who were appointed by the Sultan. However, later on,
Ottoman generals in the Tunisia who called “Uncles” established their
authorities with the help of being far from the capital’s intervention. For
these reasons, Ottoman Domination in Tunisia weakened in the middle of
18th century and reform movements by the Pashas didn’t succeed. Also the
founder of the Wahhabism Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab sent a letter to
the leader of Tunisia and called them to adopt to the Wahhabi movement.
But Tunisia’s’ leading scholars like Omar al-Makhjup and Ismael et-Temimi
wrote anti-letters to the Wahhabizm and declined joining in al-Wahhab’s
order.23
In the end of the 10th century France influenced raised with the help of
Britain and France invaded Tunisia in 1881. Also France signed an
agreement with the Bey of the Tunisia24 and Tunisia became a France
colony. During the colony period, France intervened in the all areas of life in
Tunisia, they re-ordered the education system and France became the
compulsory language to study in the all schools of the country and in this
process Arab language education weakened. In 1934 Habib Bourguiba, a
Tunisian lawyer who studied in Sorbonne France, established Neo Destour
party for the independence of Tunisia. But this was seen an illegal
movement by the France and he was arrested and exiled many times. But
France couldn’t stop this independence movement which started by
Bourguiba. During WW 2 Tunisia became a battlefield between Allies and
Axis powers. And after the war, France changed his policy over Tunisia.
And finally France had to accept Tunisia’s independence in 1956. And ın
25th of July 1957, kingdom was abolished and Tunisia became a secular,
democratic state and Bourguiba became the first president of the modern
Tunisia. France withdrew its last troops from Tunisia in 1963. Bourguiba
ruled the country from 1957 to 1987 with one party system. Protests against
his presidency were suppressed very hash by the police and military
forces.25
23
Ufuk Ulutaş, Furkan Torlak, “Devrimden Demokrasiye Tunus’un Seçimi”, Seta Analiz, Seta Yayınları,
November 2011, p.5
24
Bey; is a word used to call the governors of Tunisia
25
Ufuk Ulutaş, Furkan Torlak, Ibid., p.6
15
LIBYA
The last country where Arab Spring revolutions overthrown the leader
was Libya. Muammar Gaddafi who ruled the country almost half a century
with dictatorship had to escape from the palace as a result of the revolution
and was killed on the streets of Libya by his own people.
In 1401, Spanish forces invaded Libya. Spanish presences lasted in Libya
until 1551 when Ottoman generals Dragut Pasha (Turgut Reis) and Sinan
Pasha conquered this land in the name of the Caliph. After this time Libya
became an Ottoman territory till 1911 and it was also the last territory in
Africa which left Ottoman sovereignty. 26 At the beginning of the 15th
century, Libyan local authorities sent their delegates to Istanbul asked for
help from the Caliph to save them from Spanish occupation. After Libya
became an Ottoman territory, according to the Libyan history scholar Ibn
Galbun, prosperity and peace increased Tripoli’s population with prosperity
and peace also increased and got richer.27 Also Libya became Ottoman
Empire’s biggest and the most important military base in the North Africa.
But in the 16th century Ottoman leaders understood that Libya should
have governed by the local leaders not by the someone who would have
appointed by Istanbul. After that, local leaders, who called “Uncles”,
became powerful in the Libya and they suppressed repressions by
themselves. They made agreements with the France, Spain and England.
And at the end of this process, Akhmed Bey, one of the strong figures in
Libya took control of the all Libya and established his own dynasty there in
1711. His dynasty lasted in Libya until 1856, because of civil wars and
internal turmoil.
In 1877-78 The Russo-Turkish war, Ottoman Empire was heavily
defeated by Russian forces. Russian soldiers entered into Istanbul. After this
heavy defeat Tunisia by France and Egypt invaded by England. Next target
for European powers over Ottoman Empire, which was called by Europe
“Sick man of Europe”, was Libya. After losing Egypt and Tunisia, Ottoman
lost its ground connection with its last territory in Africa. In Berlin congress
in 1896 Italy claimed that Libya should be an Italian colony according to
historical background. But Ottoman reacted hard to Italy for claiming this.
But Italy entered into Libya with peaceful way at the beginning. They
started to build telegram, railways, hospitals and schools there, to impose
Italian and Christian culture to Libyan society. As a result of all these
actions, Italy started to invade Libya starting from its costs in September 29
26
Nurettin Ceviz, Tarihten Günümüze Libya(From Past to Present), ORSAM, Rapor no:39, March 2011, p;9
27
Nurettin Ceviz, Ibid., p;10
16
1911.28 But Italy’s invasion in Libya was not easy. Libyan people, young or
old, men and women, resisted against Italian fascist invasion to protect their
homeland. Omar al Mukhtar became the symbol figure of this disobedience.
After Mussolini came to power in 1922, Italia followed more bloody way in
Libya to suppress the rebellions. After 10 years in 1932 Italy declared the
end of the war in Libya and completion of the invasion. During years under
Italian occupation, Italy recognized Libyan people as a second class Italian
citizen who are governed by Italian colony laws, which didn’t give many
rights to Libyan people as a regular Italian citizen. Italian language became
the compulsory language in Libya to spread the Italian cultural
expansionism. It was the same method which was applied by France in
Tunisia. 100.000 Italian migrants came to Libya during Italian invasion.
When WW 2 started Italy had 160.000 military forces placed in Libya
but it had no authority to force Arab people to fight against France and
England forces, as they did in Tunisia and in Egypt. From 1942 to 1951
Libya was under the control of Englad. As a result of the WW 2, Italy lost
Libya and withdrew its all forces from Libya in 1950. After this withdraw
UN’s resolution made Libya an independent state in November 27,1951.
During Italian colony period Libyan people had no access to education
and science. As a result of this after Italy withdrew its forces and personals
from Libya, there didn’t appear any social and economic development
movement. Even Libya gained its independence, France and English forces
and diplomats stayed in Libya to train Libyan army and to consult Libyan
government. But Libya’s destiny changes in 1959, after finding vast oil and
gas resources. Arab Union and USA and UK paid attention on Libya more
than before. Also at the same time while Arab countries were fighting
against Jewish expansionism in Palestine in the leading of Nasser’s Egypt,
Libya had tight and strong relations with the west, signed many agreements
with USA. Nasser as a leader of the Arab world at that time had a huge
influence and impact on young Libyan generation. But Libyan government
in 1959 signed a friendship and neighborhood agreement with Tunisia where
Bourguiba was the president who was known as a anti Nasser leader in Arab
world. Nasser declared both countries as betrayers and working to break up
the Arab unity. In 1964 during Arab Union Summit in Cairo, students and
workers started protests in favor of Arab Union and against Libyan
government. And it leads to clashes in the biggest cities of the country.
Clashes spread all over the country and the King had to ask USA and UK
authorities to shut down the military bases and leave the country. Nasser’s
speech during the 1967 Arab-Israel war about these bases that Israel pilots
are trained in the Libya and Israel is getting help from these bases
28
Nurettin Ceviz, Ibid., p.10,11
17
encouraged Libyan students and young people. At the end of the clashes in
September 1, 1969, in the leading of the general Muammar Gaddafi, Free
Officers Movement destroyed the kingdom and declared the republic in
Libya.29
Gaddafi from the first day of his presidency till the last minute of his life
followed an anti-American or in general anti-West policy. Gaddafi collected
his ideas in his Green Book which was calling all Muslim countries to
gather under the Socialist-Islamic order against Marxist and Liberal order.
Gaddafi governed the country as a prime minister between 1970-72, and
then as a President of Libya Arab Republic between 1972-79. Since 1979 till
2011 Gaddafi ruled Libya as the great guide of the 1st September Revolution
without any election or referendum.
Libya’s anti-American policy was costly for Libya. USA bomber Libya
couple of times and didn’t appoint any ambassador to this country till 2008.
Libya faced with embargo from west countries because of its anti-western
policy as a result of Lockerbie bombing. Gaddafi saw Nasser as his father
and the great leader of the Arab Unity. After Nasser passed away, Gaddafi
tried to build union between Libya and other Arab countries. These
unification attempts, such as with Tunisia, Sudan and Morocco failed and
Gaddafi couldn’t unite Arab countries under one roof and his goal to
become a leader of Arab World remained unsettled.
In 2003 Gaddafi agreed to give up on Libya’s nuclear program and to
extradite Lockerbie bombing’s suspects to England for trial. After that time
Libya’s relations got better with the West. In such a short time all embargos
were lifted and after 36 years USA appointed an ambassador to this country
in 2008.30
REVOLUTIONS
Process to the Revolutions
The first country where Arab revolutions took place was Tunisia. The
process of the Tunisian Revolution started with the action of police officer
Fadiye Hamdi. Hamdi arrested Tunisian young street seller Muhammad
Bouazizi and manhandled him in the public and seized his all goods. In a
country where there was high unemployment rate and it is really difficult to
find a job, Bouazizi found a way to protest the government by setting
himself on fire on 17 December 2010. Bouazizi’s this action made a domino
29
Nurettin Ceviz, Ibid., p.16,17,18
30
Nureddin Ceviz, Ibid., p.20
18
effect on all over the Middle East, from Morocco to Yemen, from Syria to
Gulf States. In his funeral, crowds started to protest government because of
the high unemployment rate, bad economic condition within the country,
high corruption rate, and Bin Ali’s oppressive governance. As a former
police officer, Bin Ali’s police forces had troubles to stop the uprisings
against his government. During protests many people lost their lives and Bin
Ali failed to hold back these protests to spread out the all country. As a
result in 14 January 2011, almost after a month Bouazizi lost his life, had to
leave the country and escape to Saudi Arabia. Ironically, Bin Ali was the
strong figure of the Secularism in Arabic world, where he didn’t let any
Islamic organization or party to appear in his own country, escaped to Saudi
Arabia where Sharia laws are on practice and on daily life and where there is
kingdom. This showed to other countries in the Middle East that if these
dictatorships are forced to do something, they can leave their palaces
without looking at back. Tunisia was the first stone of this domino
revolution series and gave a good example and hopes to people who had
been suffering under the tyranny regimes for decades.31 Tunisian revolution
was also called as Jasmine revolution, national flower of the country, but
after it spreaded out the region and it was called as Arab Spring or Arab
Revolutions.
Right after Tunisian revolution, the second country of the revolution was
its neighbor, where there was 42 years dictatorship regime governed by
Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya. In his speech after Jasmine revolution in
Tunisia, Gaddafi Said that, “They ruined everything. They ruined the
country, they can’t find better one than Bin Ali”.32 With this speech Gaddafi
showed his lack of foresight for the future of his country. During 42 years
Gaddafi gave no chance to the opposition groups in the country, put many
journalists, political figures or some human right activists in jails and sent
some of them in exile. After Tunisian revolution Gaddafi continued
humiliating opposition groups more and harder way ever by defining them
as “insects”. However, after 42 years, Bin Ali’s escaping was the hope for
Libyan people.
Things started in Libya in 15-16th of February 2011 in Benghazi. Human

rights activist and Gaddafi’s opposition Fethi Tarbel was arrested by the
police forces in Benghazi. And some groups gathered in front of the police
station to protest this arrest and shouting freedom for Tarbel. As they did in
the past 42 years, police forces had rough handling against protesters and it
caused many killings. And in 17th of February 2011, on the “Day of Rage”
31
Ufuk Ulutaş, Furkan Torlak, Ibid., p.7
32
Emrah Kekilli, “17 Şubat Devriminden Haftar darbe girişimine Libya Siyaseti”, Setav Yayınları, Haziran 2014,
sayı:99, p.8,9,10
19
thousands of people gather to protest Gaddafi’s regime and demanded his
resignation. But Gaddafi told that “Whatever happens, I would stay here in
Tripoli to stand against these insects to defend my country.”33 Protests as it
were expected spreaded out the whole country as in the center of Benghazi.
To make coordination easier between the cities and to fight against Gaddafi
forces together, opposition groups came together in 27th of February and
established National Transitional Council with the 31 delegates from all the
cities of the country.34
After protests spreaded everywhere in the country, it turned out to

clashes between regime forces and Council forces. Gaddafi used his army on
the ground but when he couldn’t stop opposition’s progress, Air Forces was
called for operation. This action, using air forces against his civilian people
brought end to Gaddafi’s regime. With the help of air forces Gaddafi was
about to reach Benghazi, the center of the Transitional Council. But in 17th
March UN gathered on Libya’s special agenda. Number 1973 resolution of
the UN called for an emergency ceasefıre and to stop clashes and declared
ban for flights on Libyan air space and gave right for military operation in
Libya. NATO took responsibility for the military operations within Libya.
But after Gaddafi continued his military operations against opposition,
NATO launched air strikes against Libyan forces in 19th of March. NATO’s
air strikes helped opposition groups to stop regimes forces progress toward
to Benghazi.35 In London Conference, friends of the Libya gathered in the
leading countries of USA, UK and Turkey and called Gaddafi to step back
and to transfer the power to public. But Gaddafi insisted on not leaving the
country till the death. In June 2011 International Court of Justice issued an
arrest warrant for Gaddafi, his son Seifulislam and his intelligence chef
Abdullah El Senusse for the crimes that they made against humanity. In
August Opposition forces with the help of air strikes of NATO entered in
the capital of the Libya. But Gaddafi and his son Seifulislam were still alive
and that could be a danger for the revolution in the future, because Gaddafi
could attack back to take over the government with the help of his
supporters. That is why National Transitional Council forces carried on
attacks on the other cities to find Gaddafi alive or dead. Because Gaddafi’s
convoy was bombed by NATO many times but it was not certain if he was
alive or not. In October 20, 2011, Gaddafi’s mother town Sirte was captured
by the opposition forces and Gaddafi was found injured. But those people
who found Gaddafi injured in a cavity killed him by lynching with the
33
http://bianet.org/biamag/dunya/133574-kaddafi-ve-libya-kronolojisi
34
Emrah Kekilli, Ibid., p.10
35
http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber-analiz/kronoloji-libya-devrimi
20
anger. After this Transition Council declared the end of the 42 years old
Gaddafi era.36
Egypt was the third country where Arab Spring started. It started couple
days after the Libya but it ended in such a short time where everybody was
surprised. Unlike others, Egypt was the key country of the Arab Spring
revolutions because it is the biggest country in the Middle East and in Africa
by army and one of the biggest by population and economy. That is why any
movement in Egypt would have a global impact. But in fact process of the
revolution in Egypt started long before Tunisia. In 2000s in the leading of
the Muslim Brotherhood, opposition parties had a good communication
especially on the internet. Between 2004-8 there were thousands of strikes
against Hosni Mubarak’s regime. The three main elements of the
revolutionary process in the Arab society, "bread", "freedom" and "dignity"
are the undoubtedly basic demands areas of the uprising in Egypt.37
Egypt revolution, surprisingly, was the fastest revolution in the region.

After Tunisia and Libya, millions of people, especially young people who
constitute the majority of the population took to the Tahrir Square to call
Mubarak to leave the presidency on 25th of January 2011. On the same day
Protests spreaded the country, to the biggest cities of Egypt, such as
Alexandria, Mansura and Tanta. Regime’s police forces used water cannons
and tear gasses to suppress the crowds shouting “Resign Mubarak”. 38
Protests were mostly organized through social platforms Facebook and
Twitter that is why after this revolution called as Facebook revolution. In the
second day of the protests, while Arab Spring protests were increasing all
over the region, spokesman of White House Robert Gibbs tells reporters that
the government should "demonstrate its responsiveness to the people of
Egypt" by recognizing their "universal rights". Also the Arab League’s
general secretary Amr Musa told journalists that "the Arab citizen is angry,
is frustrated".39
In the next days of the protests, it turned out to bloody clashes between
protesters and police forces in the city of Ismailiya. Mohamed ElBaradei the
former chef of the UN Nuclear watchdog and also the important figure of
the Egypt politics, turned back to Egypt from Europe where he used to live,
to join in the protests and called to take leadership responsibility of the
revolution if it is asked. In the 28th of the January, on Friday, big protests
36
Emrah Kekilli, Ibid., p.10,11
37
Seta Rapor, “25 OCAK’TAN YENİ ANAYASA’YA : MISIR’DA DÖNÜŞÜMÜN ANATOMİSİ”, No:2, April 2011, p.4
38
“Timeline: Egypt’s revolution,” Aljazeera, 14 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.
net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201112515334871490.html
39
Kronoloji; Mısır Devrimi,14 February 2011, Al jazeera, http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/kronoloji/kronoloji-misir-
devrimi
21
were planned but Regime to avoid these protests after the Friday Pray,
banned Facebook and Twitter, cut off the phone calls, and placed anti-terror
forces in the critical places of the country. Mubarak declared the dissolution
of the government to keep protesters calm down and to make them go home.
But this didn’t help Mubarak. During all the protests, arm forces also took to
the streets but didn’t intervene the clashes between protesters and polices.
Army’s mission was to protect Museums and national historical and art
buildings which millions of tourists visit every year. In the fifth day of the
protests Mubarak appointed a vice president first time ever during his 30
years in the office. Omar Suleiman was appointed to this position after
dissolution of the government. But Mubarak told that he won’t leave the
presidency but he made changes in the government to realize demands of the
protesters. However what protesters were demanding was an Egypt without
Mubarak.
During protests Mubarak was called to step back especially by the USA,
European Countries and Turkey, but ironically Mubarak’s only supporter in
the region became Egypt’s biggest threat Israel. Israel called world to stop
criticizing the president.
In February 1st, Mubarak promised protesters in the Tahrir Square not to

be the candidate in the next presidential elections and restoration of the
economy, supplying more job possibilities and to do reforms in the
Constitution.
But protesters in the Tahrir Square didn’t believe in Mubarak’s words, as

he already gave words in the past but didn’t keep them. The only way for
protesters to leave the Tahrir is Mubarak leave the presidential palace and to
transfer his all power to public. In the 11th of February, after 18 days
protesters started in Tahrir against the regime which was on the power for
30 years ended. Mubarak resigned and handed over his all authority to the
chef of the military.40 Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the army
came to the power for the transition process, till the next elections. And first
thing that Tantawi did was to call people to go their homes and to take
responsibilities for the future of their countries. And Tantawi gave his word
to the people to get prepared the country for the fair and safe elections. Also
Tantawi asked police officers, Hospital and Transportation works to get
back to their jobs and to end the strikes.41
40
Ramazan Yıldırım, Tarık Abdulcelil, “Mısır Siyasi Haritası”, Seta Siyasi Harita, Seta Yayınları, September 2011,
p.5
41
“Timeline: Egypt’s revolution,” Aljazeera, 14 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.
net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201112515334871490.html
22
SYRIA: FROM REVOLUTION TO CIVIL WAR
The last country that will be focused on this paper is Syria. But Syrian
revolution is not considered as a revolution where it overthrown the regime
because the process is still on and it is the bloodiest revolution so far among
the countries where Arab Spring shook. Syria’s leader Bashar Al-Assad,
who came to power in 2000 by 97 percent of the all votes and also the son of
the former president Hafez al-Assad, knew Arab Spring would come to
Syria too sooner or later. To avoid it, Assad ordered the release of the some
political convicts from the prisons. 42
Unlike his father Bahsar al-Assad, after coming to power, underlined the
importance of reforms and democracy. Bahsar al-Assad came together with
the intellectual part of the population, also business men, and listened to
their demands and took actions to do those reforms. This period long before
Arab Spring called as “Damascus Spring”. During this period many people
released from the prisons and some opposition groups got the right to
publish their own newspapers. And the fight against corruption accelerated
and some of top executives discharged in the fight against corruption. The
internet which came to usage in 1996 in Syria became free for the people to
use during the Bashar al-Assad period. Assad was giving hopes to the world
and creating his new image, as a dictator’s young son who is open to
changes, democracy and globalization.
But the hardliners in the Ba’ath party considered these actions of the new
president as a threat to their regime and Alawites minority’s goals. In 2001,
opposition groups wrote a letter to the president and asked their demands to
come true and they declared that these reforms are inadequate for them. This
letter changed Bashar al-Assad’s strategy. Anti-reformist groups and
hardliners within the party took action and “Damascus Spring” ended in
such a short time. Many people arrested and sent to jail again, opposition
groups banned and sent exile.
After October 11, 2001, USA increased his war against global terrorism
and put the Syria in the list of the countries to produce nuclear weapons, to
support Mujahedeen in Iraq invasion in 2003, and to host radical terrorist
groups in Syria. Also the biggest ally of the USA in the region Israel found
guilty Syrian because of the bombings in Israel in 2004. In the same year
America declared the embargo on Syria. In the global area USA raised his
pressure over Syria’s regime for reforms about democracy, protection of
religious and ethnic minorities, economic liberalization and human rights.
Also the assassination of the opposition leader of Lebanon Rafik Hariri
42
23
turned all attention on Syria again. USA and France in the UN Security
Council forced Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon.43
Finally, during 2011’s first quarter, the Spring air which surrounded the
Arab world reached to the Syria after Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Protesters in
Syria against the regime started in the 15th of March in 2011 in the Day of
Anger as it was organized under the same name in other countries.44 After
the first day of the protests, it was said that 3000 people were arrested and
some of them died but no record was found to prove this. In the city of
Syria, Deraa thousands of protesters gathered to call Bahsar al-Assad to
resign. Son Assad was facing the strongest opposition wave during his
presidency. Like father like son, Assad also didn’t hesitate to use the
military and kill the protesters to suppress them. But What son Assad
couldn’t see that, those people came to the streets to die, after seeing people
sacrificing their lives for the revolution in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.
Washington which had a bad relations with the Damascus for a long time
declared that Bashar al-Assad lost his legitimacy called him to leave the
office in the 18th of the August.45
During the March of 2011, protests didn’t stop and many people killed by
the army in the many cities of the country including Damascus. Son Assad
ordered the release of the 260 convicts to stop the protests and promised for
the bigger reforms and to give identity to the 150.000 Kurdish people in the
north of the Syria. Assad also on the state TV blamed western countries for
the protesters and he said that they are planning to take over him to control
the Syria. Protests after the speech of the president continued and during the
April many people died again by the Army. Syrian Army used weapons
without any hesitation unlike others, to stop the revolution movement which
happened in the other countries. Protests in Deraa suppressed by the army
very bloody way during the April and Army kept sending tanks and rockets
to the city. 46
Bahsar al-Assad was trying to do anything to stop the protests. He

dismissed the government, changed the Prime Minister, changed the laws to
give more freedom of speech to the people, and recognized the identities of
the Kurdish minority. However son Assad was too late to do these reforms.
As the Arab League’s general secretary Amr Musa told journalists that "the
Arab citizen is angry, is frustrated” and son Assad was far away to
43
44
Suriye Krizinin Kronolojisi, 21. Yüzyıl Türkiye Ensitütüsü, 02 September 2013,
http://www.21yyte.org/arastirma/suriye-krizi-izleme-merkezi/2013/09/02/7192/suriye-krizinin-kronolojisi
45
46
“Kronoloji, Suriyede İsyandan İç Savaşa” Al Jazeera, 27 December 2013,
http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/kronoloji/kronoloji-suriyede-isyandan-ic-savasa
24
understand this. What people wanted was not the reforms was not the new
primes minister, what they wanted was the Syria without Assad regime.
Syria is the most important country in the Middle East. What makes
Syria the most important one is that it is the only opposition to the Israel and
the USA. Son Assad maintained his father’s anti-western foreign policy and
got supported by the Iran the biggest threat to Israel and to the USA. Also
Syria has been the biggest and the only ally of the Russian in the region for a
long time. This is the most important characteristic of the Syrian Civil War
that Russia and China is keeping backing up Syria as a base and threat to the
USA.
In the May USA decided to put sanctions on the president of the Syria
and 6 other state men for the violations of the human rights in the country to
show its support to the revolution. In the August Turkish Minister of
Foreign Affairs went to Damascus and met Bahsar al-Assad to stop killings.
And USA started its vary embargo and sanctions on Syria. Barrack Obama,
The USA president, called Bashar al-Assad to resign.
Opposition groups gathered together in Istanbul and established National

Council and called for an international operation against Assad regime for
his crimes against humanity. Also the general secretary of the UN, Ban ki
Moon called leaders to take a step to stop these violations of human rights in
Syria and called for international solidarity. In the UN, the resolution to
condemn Bashar al-Assad was vetoed by Russia and China.47 And in the
July of 2011, Free Syrian Army was established by the opposition forces to
fight and to coordinate the war against the regime.
At the beginning of the 2012, as a result of the Arab Spring in Syria, in

the absence of the governance and also the same reason in Iraq, radical
groups came on the stage. El Nusra front was created in July and El-Qaida
leader Ez-Zevahiri in his video on the internet called all Muslims to join the
Jihad in Syria. Suicide attacks rate increased rapidly in the beginning of
2012 after El Nusra and El-Qaida’s join in the war.
Until Arab Spring revolutions started in the region, especially in these

countries where it led to failed states or civil wars, shortly lack of
governance, radical groups grew up and found supporters very easily. After
the revolutions started, many scholars and leaders see this as the most
negative result of the Arab Spring. ISIL group which is now the bigger
threat than El-Qaida, and even sometimes El-Qaida condemns ISIL’s actions
47
“Kronoloji, Suriyede İsyandan İç Savaşa” Al Jazeera, 27 December 2013,
25
came to the power in the most of the part of the Syria and Iraq. They are
producing even Oil in the North of the Syria and they are controlling the 3 rd
biggest city of Iraq, Mosul. ISIL organizing terrorist attacks not only in the
region, they are organizing terrorist attacks, especially all over the World.
And their supporters not only from the Middle East, they are gaining
supporters from everywhere of the world. The table below shows how many
militants joined ISIL from the different countries after 2012.
Tunusia 3000 Saudi Arabia 2500

Morocco 1500 Russia and 1500
former Soviet
Republics
Jordan 1500 Lebanon 900
France 700 Libya 600
Turkey 400 Germany 400
Egypt 360 Pakistan 330
Belgium 300 Australia 250
Algeria 200 Netherlands 150
Kazakhstan 150 Albania 140
Palestina/Israel 120 Kosova 120
Yemen 110 USA 100
Denmark 100 Spain 100
China 100 Sudan 100
Sweden 100 Somali 70

Kuwait 70 Bosnia and 60
Herzegovina
Austria 60 Indonesia 60
Ukraine 50 Italy 50
Norway 50 Ireland 30
Finland 30 Canada 30
Afghanistan 25
Sources: “Işid’e hangi ülkeden kaç militant katıldı.” 04.09.2014, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/isid-e-hangi-

ulkeden-kac-militan/dunya/detay/1935577/default.htm
26
In 11th of May 2013, in the city of Hatay in Turkey ISIL suicide attacker
blew himself and killed at least 52 people. Also in 11th of June 2014, ISIL
captured Turkish consulate and took 49 people as hostage for 3 months. And
During Qobani siege, ISIL targeted Kurdish Political Party in Turkey.
Because at that time there were people going to Qobani to join the fight
against ISIL. As a respond to this again in a suicide attack in the border city
with Syria in Urfa killed 32 young people who came to the city to protest
ISIL’s attacks on Qobani,48 and to protest Turkish government to open the
gates for those who want to go to fight against ISIL.49 But ISIL’s in Tukey
and at the same time the history of the Republic of Turkey’s biggest terrorist
attack took place in the capital of Turkey, Ankara. In 10th of October 2015,
during the Peace Rally in Ankara organized by the Kurdish opposition party
HDP, 2 ISIL suicide bombers attack the rally and killed 97 people in couple
of seconds.5051
But ISIL’s most influential attack was Paris attacks which killed at least
128 people in the center of the Paris. ISIL attacked a concert hall and killed
almost 100 people only in the hall and others were killed in the other parts
of the city. ISIL also exploded bombs near the stadium at the same time
while France and German national teams were playing there.52
While Syrian revolution was going on in Syria regime forces shot down a
Turkish jet claiming violation of the Syrian air space which was denied by
the Turkish official sources in the 22th of June 2012. And in 13 June UN
defined the war in Syria as a civil war. While Assad was fighting against the
opposition forces mostly in the West of the country ISIL was moving into
the country from the East and Kurdish forces, under the name of PYD took
the control of the north of the country and moved forward in the absence of
the regime forces. Assad was focusing on the finishing war with the Free
Syrian Army first but many other groups appeared in the country, which
gained more territory than the Free Syrian Army which is the military wing
of the Syrian revolution.53
In the beginning of the 2013 Regime forces started to use chemical
weapons against the civilians and the opposition forces. At that time Hillary
48
Qobani is a city in the Northern Syria with a majority Kurdish population. After Syrian Revolution started
Qobani became the center of the Kurdish resistance in Syria.
49
Işid’in Tükiyeye gerçekleştirdiği 8 saldırı, 21 July 2015, http://onedio.com/haber/isid-kuruldugundan-beri-
turkiye-ye-saldiriyor-549152
50
Some people died after the attack in the hospitals and the total number of the attack reached 109.
51
Ankarada Terör Saldırısı, 18 November 2015, http://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/ankarada-teror-saldirisi-97-
olu,G7aJ87ksF0Kd8ko_oYJuOw
52
Paris Saldırıları: En az 127 kişi hayatını kaybetti, 14 November 2015,
http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2015/11/151113_paris_saldiri
53
Begüm Zorlu, “Suriye iç savaşında dört yılda neler oldu”, 16 March 2015,
http://bianet.org/bianet/siyaset/163049-suriye-ic-savasinda-dort-yilda-neler-oldu
27
Clinton, the secretary of the state declared that using chemical weapons is
the red line for the Washington and USA won’t stay silence against it if it is
used.54 In the 18th of the August 2013 UN proved using of chemical
weapons in the Syria but it was denied by the Regime and Russia. Moscow
blamed opposition forces for using chemical weapons. After that agreement
on destroying chemical weapons which Syria possesses in the supervising of
the USA and Russia. 2013 also was the year that ISIL’s leader Abu Bakr al-
Baghdadi announced his group’s presence in the Syria and sent his militants
to the Syria.
In the 2014 Kurds in the northern Syria declared their independency in
the 3 different cities and got together under PYD. Kurdish forces started
heavy clashes with the ISIL forces. In this year regime forces was moving
on, towards the cities which are captured by FSA. But ISIL saw this
opportunity and gained the territories in the east and north of the country
also in Iraq. ISIL captured the town Bakuba 60 km away from the Baghdad
and came very close to the city Erbil. USA at this time launched air strikes
first time against ISIL with France. In September ISIL attacked Qobani and
USA to help Kurdish forces in the Northern Syria in their fight against ISIL,
bombed ISIL by air forces and dropped the guns and humanitarian
assistance by air. But the ironic things started here. Because Turkey, as a
partner of USA in this war and in NATO, was against any Kurdish presence
in their south and declined to help Kurdish fighters in Syria. But at the same
time USA was striking ISIL targets to help PYD forces. In his speech
Turkish President said that, “whatever it costs, Turkey will never let a
Kurdish state in the southern of Turkey, neither in northern of Syria.”. 55
In the August of 2014 ISIL made slaughters in the northern Syria and
Iraq over the Yezidis and Assyrians. And at the same time, journalists from
the western countries seized and killed and the group published those videos
on the internet for the propaganda. In 2015 Syrian Revolution which started
as a rebellion peaceful movement against the Bashar Al Assad regime
turned to one of the bloodiest civil wars in the world with the intervention of
the Western powers especially USA, Russia, France, Turkey and Saudi
Arabia. Russia, as the biggest ally of the regime, launched also air strikes
against ISIL but USA and Turkey blamed Russia for bombing Free Syrian
Army to help the regime. And Russia with China vetoed the resolutions
which came to the Security Council to intervene in the Syria by army as they
did in Libya. The death toll has passed 200 thousand, and in 2015 we came
to the sectarian dimension of the conflict, existence of various and outside
actors in the country made the war inextricable. After five years of civil war,
54
Kırmızı Çizgi Kimyasal Silah, 03.12.2012, http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/kirmizi-cizgi-kimyasal-silah
55
Bedeli Ne Olursa Olsun Engel Olacağız, 27.06.2015, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/bedeli-ne-olursa-olsun-
engel-olacagiz-29394009
28
Assad's regime is still standing; ISIL directed its activities more toward
IRAQ but still controlling Aleppo’s north side, Raqqa and Deyr Ez-Zor, and
PYD, the Kurdish forces is controlling the 3 cantons in the Northern Syria.56
The map shows the Countries lights change from the view of the space after
revolutions started, March 2011-February 2014.
Source: ScienceDaily
REFUGEE CRISIS
“Syrian refugees” is used to call those people who escaped from the civil
war from Syria to the neighborhood countries and then to the Europe and to
the world after revolution started in 15 March 2011. Refugee problem at the
beginning is considered as a regional problem and it was estimated that
refugees would return to their homes after revolution ends. But it never
ended and refugees never returned their homes and even more and more
migrated to other countries to survive.
During 2011-2012 Syrian people faced with the lack of food, oil, job and
a place to live cause of the clashes. First of all those people migrated to
neighborhood countries Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. But after clashes
got longer and never ended Syrian people migrated to those countries with
the huge number of groups, which is still continuing. Number of refugees is
increasing every day.57
After a while refugees started to migrate to European countries. But
European countries were not ready to handle of such a big amount of
refugees. Syria refugees fleeing from civil war want to go to European
countries in various ways. After Germany accepted refugees thousands of
56
Begüm Zorlu, Ibid.
57
“944 Suriyeli daha Türkiye’ye geldi”, 21.08.2012, http://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/944-suriyeli-daha-
turkiyeye-geldi-52810.html
29
them went into this country illegally. Only by October 2015 180.000
refugees fled to this country in a month.58 Illegal trip of refugees to Europe,
failure to ensure the security conditions and because of the greedy of the
pirates to earn more, result in disaster. Many people lost their lives during
this dangerous trip. In September 2015, while trying to reach Canada by
Turkish costs through Europe, the boat capsized and 3 year old Aylan’s dead
body came to be washed up on a beach in Turkey. Aylan Kurdi with his
family was trying to escape from the war in Qobani to reach Turkey and
then to Europe to go to Canada. Aylan’s dead body photo in the Turkish
beach deeply shocked the world and made people to pay attention on more
on this problem.59
Aylan Kurdi’s dead body came to be washed up on a beach in Turkey and this photo shocked the world
very deeply. Source: Hurriyet.com.tr
But while world seeing such disasters every day, eastern European
countries failed to host the refugees. Especially in Hungary Refugee Crisis
turned to a human tragedy. Hungarian authorities closed the doors to stop
refugees fleeing in their country.60 Hungary built 175 km’s fence in the
border with Serbia. In his meeting with the head of the European Parliament
Martin Schulz, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban suggested refugees
not to come to Hungary and Europe, and he added, “Turkey is a safe
58
“Almanya’ya bu ay 180 bin mülteci geldi”, 25.11.2015, http://www.arti49.com/almanyaya-bu-ay-180-bin-
multeci-geldi-363643h.htm
59
“Aylan Kurdi’s story: How a small Syrian child came to be washed up on a beach in Turkey”, 3 Sptember 2015,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/aylan-kurdi-s-story-how-a-small-syrian-child-came-to-be-
washed-up-on-a-beach-in-turkey-10484588.html
60
“Macaristanda mülteci krizi insanlık dramına dönüştü”, 03.09.2015,
http://tr.euronews.com/2015/09/03/macaristan-da-multeci-krizi-insanlik-dramina-donustu/
30
country, and stay there. Do not come here, it is quite risky. Families stay
there for your children and yourself better.”61
The refugee crisis that erupted in the heart of the EU, creating serious
tensions between members of the Union, and freedom of movement within
the Union, overall it was even raised questions about the future of the EU.
European leaders desperately trying to find solutions to the problem, after
six months of bargaining time, have reached an agreement with Turkey, an
agreement that EU pushing crisis far away from itself and acting like
nothing is wrong. Still working on the fine details within the agreement, all
new refugees passed through Turkey to Greece to be sent back. According
to the agreement for each refugee than to be sent back to Turkey, one Syrian
from Turkish refugee camps will be able to live in the Europe. But the non-
Syrian refugees’ road to the Europe will be cut off. And in return EU
promised Turkey to accelerate its joining in the Schengen visa system which
will allow Turkish citizens free movement in the European Union countries
without visa and to pay 3,3 billion euros for its assistance about refugee
crisis.
The EU has a population of over 500 million, and per capita gross
domestic product of 27 thousand USD. But if it is an unacceptable burden
and a major cause of the crisis if a million immigrants enter into EU, how
does the EU think that it won’t be a bigger burden or a crisis for Turkey?
OR what is the point to send back these refugees from Syria to Turkey?
Wouldn’t it be easier to keep them in Syria in refugee camps? But what EU
is trying to do here is to push back the crisis from its continent and to stop
Muslim and Arab refugees to enter into EU. Some of the poorest countries
of the world have already taken the biggest responsibility to aid the
refugees. But if those countries also would have adopted the same policy as
EU did, there would be a much bigger crisis and human tragedy. This
refugee crisis is an exam for the world and first of all for the EU. And it is as
clear as day that EU has failed in this exam.62
61
“Macaristan Başbakanından Mültecilere Şok Çağrı”, 03.09.2015, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/macaristan-
basbakani-ndan/dunya/detay/2112255/default.htm
62
Kenan Malik, “AB-Türkiye mülteci anlaşmasının karanlık yüzü”, 11.03.2016,
http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/gorus/ab-turkiye-multeci-anlasmasinin-karanlik-yuzu
31
Blue dots are showing the number of asylum seeking of the Syrian
refugees in the European countries. And the purple dots are showing the
number Syrian refugees living in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and
Libya. Source: UNHRC63
63
“5 soruda AB-Türkiye mülteci planı”, 08.03.2016,
http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2016/03/160308_ab_turkiye_gocmen
32
CAUSES OF THE ARAB SPRING
Arab Spring includes many causes, if to categorize; Historical, Social,
Economic and Political causes.
1. Historical Causes
Countries which are located in the Middle East gained their
independences after Ottoman Empire collapses and defeated in the WW 1.
But independences are not gained by the independence struggle or any war,
in one sense; independences are given to these countries as a grace of the
West or in some secret agreements. And in this aspect Arab Spring is an
independence struggle for the Arab people that the sense of independence
for Arab people was repressed by the Western in the past. People in the
Middle East had to live under the Western hegemony since 1900s and this
made the public have the feeling to be deceived, humiliated and fooled by
the West. Therefore Arab Spring was not the contumacy against the
regimes, but the west itself.64 Also Israel’s attitude toward to Arab countries
in the Middle East since 1948 was as a police force and its supremacy on
Arab countries brought Arab people to the point of explosion. The regimes
have been used by Israel as puppets for the interest of the Israel. Arab
countries didn’t produce a single leader who could respond to Israel’s
bravado except Abdel Nasser.65 These are considered to be the historical
reasons for the Arab Spring.
3. Social Causes
In the Historical process of the Arab peoples, they have been considered
as oppressed peoples because of the many other reasons and that is why they
have been deprived of basic human rights and freedoms. Peoples in the
region never had the same life standards as the Westerns had and even
decent living conditions have been withheld by their governments.66 And
also Arab peoples have lost their hopes from the military cops because no
military cops gave them what they actually wanted; freedom. Therefore the
only goal for Arab peoples became the revolutions. As a result of managing
Arab people away from the democratic standards, and oppressive
government understanding of democracy is the main reason for the Arab
Spring. The rapid population growth in the Middle East has brought
unemployment, decline of the people’s welfare or other socio-economic
causes for the Arab Spring. People have been deprived of many social rights
64
Barış Doster, Arap Baharı’ndan Demokrasi Beklemek, ORSAM Araştırma Raporu, İstanbul: ORSAM Yayınları,
2013, p. 12.
65
Erkan Avcı. Arap Baharı’nda İsrail’in Tutumu ve İslamofobi Endüstrisi, Kocaeli: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal
Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Ana Bilim Dalı Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, 2012, p. 66.
66
Veysel Ayhan, Arap Baharı: İnsanlar, Devrimler ve Değişim, Bursa: Marmara Kitap Merkezi (MKM) Yayınları,
2012, p. 17
33
and forced to leave in the poverty and lack brought people to the
revolution.67
3. Economic Causes
Arab people who have already lived under the bad economic conditions
have been affected very badly from the 2008-9 global economic crises.
Middle Eastern countries, which have no oil and gas resources as others
have, were shocked with this crisis and they were not ready for such a big
crisis. Unemployment rate for the university graduates was %55 for the
starting point of the Arab Spring Tunisia. At the same time in Syria
unemployment rate was %50 for under 25 year olds.68 Also Northern
African countries young generations, who have got used to live under these
conditions, were trying to immigrate to France to find for themselves better
life conditions. But France with a new Immigration Law cut off the road for
immigrants to flee to France. This is also considered one of the reasons for
the Arab Spring.69 Before the revolution in Egypt, it was announced that a
person’s daily income is about 2 USA dollars. And after 2008-9 global
economic crisis, people had difficulty even in finding bread and basic food
prices have increased incredibly.70 In general view of the Middle East, it is
seen that no country in the region has a national economy policy and the
investments are on mostly the things which are not related to peoples’ daily
life. This is considered one of the key economic reasons of the Arab Spring.
4. Political Causes
The problem of the process “inability to democratize” and the result of
the non-democratic governments never applied democracy in the countries
hitherto caused Arab Spring. This led to deprivation of the people for basic
human rights and freedoms.71 Ignoring of Arab countries interests and
benefits in the aspect of peoples’ daily lives, influenced Arab peoples to
have a negative reputation over western countries. And relations between
Arab countries and the Westerns ones always based on the personal interests
of the leaders.
One of the biggest causes of the Arab Spring is that different ethnic or
religious minorities have been unable to be represented in the governance or
in the parliament.72 As we mentioned above, democratization have never
67
Muhammet Şerif Aydın, “Arap Baharı ve Mısır’da Yansımaları”, Atılım Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara 2014, p.59
68
Eda Kılıç, vd. Arap Dünyasında Entropi: Tunus, Mısır, Libya ve Suriye’de Halk Ayaklanmaları, İstanbul: Türkiye
Uluslararası İlişkiler Çalışmaları Yakın Doğu Araştırmalar Merkezi (TUİÇ-YADAM) Rapor No: 1, Ekim 2012, p. 26
69
Muhammet Şerif Aydın, Ibid., p.60
70
Erkan Avcı. Arap Baharı’nda İsrail’in Tutumu ve İslamofobi Endüstrisi, Kocaeli: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal
Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Ana Bilim Dalı Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, 2012, p.73
71
İsmail Kapan, Irklar, Dinler ve Mezhepler Mozaiği Orta Doğu’da Bahar Sancısı: Hem Şam’ın Şekeri Hem Arap’ın
Yüzü, İstanbul: Babıâli Kültür Yayıncılığı, 2012, p. 388.
72
Muhammet Şerif Aydın, Ibid., p.62
34
been succeeded in the Middle East. Therefore elections have been ostensible
and people never participated in the elections really. And that is why after
protests started, Arab Spring made these different groups to come together
against the regimes. Governments or people in management in the Arab
countries, although they are not often supported by their people, were
supported by the Western countries. While they were supposed to question
their legitimacy, the governments and the leaders found it enough to be
supported by the West.
Meaning of the Arab Spring

When the peaceful protests began in the Tunisia, nobody knew that this
would have a domino effect. That is why the Tunisian Revolution is called
as “Jasmine Revolution”. This term is originated on the blogs on the internet
of Tunisian bloggers. They suggested protesters to give to police forces
Jasmine flower who use tear gasses and water cannon to suppress them. By
this Tunisian revolution is the only peaceful revolution of this process. After
Tunisia influenced other Arabic countries, this movement was called as the
Arab Spring, some says it is inspired by the Prag Spring, and some
conspiracy theorists say that this is named by the USA and USA is the
behind of all these movements and organizing it. The reason why these
movements are not called as Arab Revolutions instead of Arab Spring is that
the process is still continuing.
American journalist Robert Fisk is against the usage of the term “Arab
Spring”. Fisk is offering to use the term “Arab Awakening” to describe the
protests in the Middle East. And Fisk is claiming that Arab Awakening
started in Lebanon in 2005.
“In reality, the "Arab awakening" began not in Tunisia this year, but in Lebanon in 2005 when,
appalled by the assassination of ex-prime minister Rafiq Hariri (Saad's father), hundreds of
thousands of Lebanese of all faiths gathered in central Beirut to demand the withdrawal of Syria's
20,000 soldiers in the country.”73
The movements in the region against the long term dictatorship regimes
by the public itself are generally known as Arab Spring. But it has other
names, such as, Arab Revolutions, Arab Awakening, the Arab uprising, the
Arab Spring, the Arab revolt, the Arab protests, the Arab People's
Movements, Social Media Revolutions, Wikileaks Revolutions and so on.
73
Robert Fisk, “The Arab Awakening began not in Tunisia this year, but in Lebanon in 2005”, 15 April 2011,
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-arab-awakening-began-not-in-
tunisia-this-year-but-in-lebanon-in-2005-2268002.html
35
But as we said above, the process is not ended yet and it is better to name it
as an Arab Awakening as Robert Fisk.74
Changes in Governments
After Tunisian president fled to Saudi Arabia, former head of the

Tunisian parliament Fuad Mubzi became the president in the transition
period, Mohamed Ghannouchi became the prime minister. But people were
waiting him to bring the country to the elections as soon as possible but
Mohamed Ghannouchi was slowing down the process. That is why
protesters took to the streets again against Mohamed Ghannouchi who was
the prime minister of the Bin Ali period since 1999. After the protesters
Mohamed Ghannouchi resigned and President Fuad Mubzi appointed a new
prime minister to bring the country to the elections.75
Rached Ghannouchi is the leader of the Ennahda movement in Tunisia.

In 1980 Ghannouchi was sent to London in exile and during the Jasmine
revolution returned back to Tunisia to join the revolution. Ghannouchi was
estimated to be the next president in the elections. After Bin Ali left the
country, in 23 October 2011, in the first elections Ghannouchi’s party won
89 seats of 217 with the 41% of all the votes. Tunisian election’s
significance is that it is the first free election after the Arab spring
revolutions started. After the elections Ennahda Movement in the leading of
Ghannouchi declared the party’s first priority to provide the safety of the
people. And Gannouchi as the leader of the Ennahda movement nominated
Hamad Jebali for the seat of the prime minister. Ennahda movement with
the way that they followed after the winning elections made the Tunisia the
only country where there are no clashes or civil war among the Arab Spring
countries. Ennahda movement’s tolerance and democratic framework lies in
the background. Ennahda movement in the first presidential elections didn’t
nominate anybody not to damage the national solidarity and to avoid
polarization among different groups in the public.76 Beji Caid Essebsi won
the presidential election in 23 November 2014 and became the first
president of the Tunisia after Arab Spring.
After Mubarak stepped down in the Egypt, he transformed his all

authority to Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the chairman of the supreme
council of the armed forces of Egypt. In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood is the
74
Murat Tekek, “Arab Baharı ve Nedenleri”, 28 November 2012, http://www.tuicakademi.org/arap-bahari-ve-
nedenleri/
75
Ufuk Ulutaş, Furkan Torlak, Ibid, p.7,8
76
Tunus’ta Arap Baharı sonrası ilk cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimleri, 23 November 2014,
http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2014/11/141123_tunus_secimler
36
biggest political and social group but during Mubarak period their political
party was banned. Isam Abdul-Aziz Sherif, who was appointed as a prime
minister by Tantawi, was giving speeches about changes and free and fair
elections. After a day being Prime Minister Abdul-Aziz Sherif went to
Friday pray with a delegate from the Muslim Brotherhood and gave a speech
in the Mosque. Sherif asked people for support for his government
legitimacy and to believe in them to bring the country to the elections.77
First elections in the country took place in 30 June 2012 and Mohamed
Morsi won the elections and became the first elected president of the Egypt
history. Morsi was the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political wing
Justice and Freedom party. Unlike Ennahda movement in Tunisia, Morsi’s
period didn’t last long in Egypt. In a year, Morsi was accused to establish
his own dictatorship, and not listening to secular part of the Egypt and
enforcing Islamist policies in the country. Even Morsi denied these
accusations; it didn’t help him to stop protesters to take to the streets again.
This time thousands of protesters were in Tahrir Square for demanding
Morsi’s resign from the Presidency. At the beginning protests started in
peaceful way. But after Morsi supporters also took to the streets and things
turned out to be bloody. In the 1st of July 2013, opponents of Morsi seized
headquarter of the Muslim Brotherhood. On the same day in clashes
between opposite groups and protesters 8 people died.78 And Army gave 48
hours to the government, to president Morsi and to protesters and otherwise
announced to follow its own agenda for the future of the country. In his
speech in 2nd of July Morsi declared that his legitimacy comes from the
democratic, fair elections and rejected Army’s demands. In the following
day commander in chief of Egyptian Armed Forces Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, in
state television declared dismissal of the president Morsi, suspension of the
constitution, and promised to bring the country to the elections as soon as it
is possible.79
Morsi during his presidency followed an anti-Israel and anti-USA
agenda. Morsi was accused for obeying his heads in the Muslim
Brotherhood except enforcing the policies for country, was enforcing the
law for his group. In Egyptian revolution, while USA president Obama was
in favor of democracy and human rights, after the military coup, Obama said
he was “deeply concerned” for the latest events in Egypt. None of EU
presidents or American president, or even Muslim Arabic Gulf States kept in
silence against this military coup, and took their sides in favor of Sisi. Again
in this situation it was clear that any country in the Middle East which
77
Ramazan Yıldırım, Tarık Abdulcelil, “Mısır Siyasi Haritası”, Seta vakfı yayınları, Seta Siyasi Harita, September
2011, p.7
78
Egypt Protesters storm Muslim Brotherhood headquarters, 1 July 2013, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-
middle-east-23125387
79
Egypt Crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi, 4 July 2013,
http://web.archive.org/web/20140403080213/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23173794
37
follows anti-Israel agenda, and working for the independence of Palestine
will be ousted sooner or later.
Sisi in his next speech told that Morsi failed to meet the demands of the
Egyptian people. In 2 years Egyptian revolution which ousted the long term
president Mubarak turned to a military coup which ousted the first freely
elected president. Clashes rose between Morsi supporters and police forces
or armed forces in all over the country. According to BBC news, after Morsi
was ousted from the presidency, under the rule of Sisi 2600 people lost their
lives and more than half of it is Morsi supporters who died in the clashes.
Ousted president Morsi was arrested after the military coup and sent to the
prison for trial. In 16th of June 2015, Morsi was sentenced for the death
penalty and the court order was approved by the Supreme Court.80
In the presidential elections after Morsi was ousted, chief of the army Sisi
resigned to be a candidate for the presidency. Muslim Brotherhood called
people to boycott the elections because Morsi is still legitimate president of
the Egypt. In 28 May 2014, Sis won the 97% of the votes and became the
president of the Egypt but the turnout was only 40%.81 And Egypt’s spring
ended after 3 year of the revolution.
After killing Gaddafi, the authority transferred to the National

Transitional Council and Mustafa Abdul Jalil became the head of the
council till the elections. In 28-29 January 2012 elections held and
Mahmoud Jibril’s National Forces Alliance won the elections and Jibril
became the Prime Minister of the country. In August 2012 National
Transitional Council was abolished and transferred its all authority to the
General National Congress. But the life of the congress didn’t last long. In
2014 second Libyan civil war started and country was divided between
different groups, including ISIL controlling some part of the country. In
20114 former general of the Gaddafi period Khalifa Haftar asked the
parliament for the dismissal of some Libyan politicians and declared the war
against some radical groups in Benghazi and created his own parliament.
Now the country is divided into two different parliaments one is controlled
by Hafter other one is by the GNC. In this absence of the government, as in
Syria and Iraq, ISIL increased its presence and captured Libya’s coast cities.
Also other terrorist groups entered into the country and the civil war became
inextricable war.82
80
Mısırda Mursiye verilen idam cezası onandı, 16 June 2015,
http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2015/06/150616_mursi_karar
81
Former Army chief scores landslide victory in Egypt presidential polls, 30th May 2014,
http://www.egyptnews.net/index.php/sid/222436239
82
Libya’da Birlik hükümetine ret, 25 January 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/libyada-birlik-
hukumetine-ret
38
Armed Groups in Libya:
Source: BBC
39
CONCLUSION
Arab Spring is used to describe these movements, revolutions, uprisings,
revolts which started in 2011 in Tunisia and influenced all the region and
Arab countries, caused regime/leader/government changes. Middle East has
always been difficult to find solutions and to apply them in political,
economic, social and cultural spheres. Instability is the stability of the
Middle East. However this situation is the result of the region’s political
history and foreign interventions. Many different types of governments,
backwardness in politics and economy, high amount of unemployment
young people, lack of democratic reforms and opposition parties which
could be the voice of the people, are the bases of the instability in the
Middle East. Until 1900s Ottoman Empire, and then UK and USA in the last
60 years held the dynamics of the region in their hands and controlled the
area. During the period of Cold War and Globalization, people in the region
pushed far away to determine their own destiny. To sum up, except Tunisia,
Arab Spring didn’t bring to the region democracy, freedom or liberal
economy, but new frustrations and sufferings. The power struggle in the
Middle East after the Arab Spring showed us again that, in fact, the struggle
is not to democratize the region or to provide better life conditions, but to
expand their dominance in the region. Syrian civil war had global effects
after involving Russia and USA and taking opposite sides in the war brought
the world to very critical times. After Turkey shot down Russian jet, fear of
new world war shook the world. And it is so blurry what can happen in the
following years, what Syrian war can cost the world, after the rise of ISIL
which became the biggest threat to the world peace and security, even
bigger than El-Qaida. No country is in the better situation than before the
Arab Spring. Morsi after coming to the power, instead of focusing on
interior affairs, fixing economic conditions, and solving the biggest sector of
the Egyptian economy tourism, Morsi preferred to follow the agenda more
on foreign affairs, to make Egypt an important and strong dominant country
in the Arabic world and Middle East. But while Morsi was trying to work on
foreign affairs, he ignored to fix the unemployment problem, curing the
tourism sector and it caused unification of people again against Morsi’s
presidency. As a result the most important revolution during Arab spring, in
Egypt, ended after a year and Military Custody took control of the country.
Finally, Uprisings in the Arab Countries started with the democracy and
freedom demand of the people but it is also related to people’s demand to
participate in the economy and the politics life.
40
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44

Arab Spring Causes Effects and Future PR

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF

THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

SULEIMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES

Specialty 05B020200 – «International Relations»

THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

SULEIMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES

Head of “International Relations”

Doctor of ph-m. s., prof.Assanbayev M

Theme: « ARAB SPRING: CAUSES, EFFECTS AND FUTURE

Specialty 5B020200 - «International Relations»

Submitted by: Ergün R.

Scientific supervisor: Zhussipbek G.

BEFORE THE ARAB SPRING…………………………………………...10

 Process to the Revolutions……………………………………………18

SYRIA: FROM REVOLUTION TO CIVIL WAR………………………23

CAUSES OF THE ARAB SPRING……………………………………….33

USA: United States of America

USSR: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

ME: Middle East

UN: United Nations

NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization

UK: United Kingdom

ISIL: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

PYD: Democratic Union Party

EU: European Union

UNHRC: United Nations Human Rights Council

GNC: Great National Congress

Significance of the work is to give future predictions for Arab countries in

Key Words: Middle East, Revolutions, Arab Spring, Democracy, Freedom

Middle East Historical Background

Things started in Libya in 15-16th of February 2011 in Benghazi. Human

After protests spreaded everywhere in the country, it turned out to

Egypt revolution, surprisingly, was the fastest revolution in the region.

In February 1st, Mubarak promised protesters in the Tahrir Square not to

But protesters in the Tahrir Square didn’t believe in Mubarak’s words, as

Bahsar al-Assad was trying to do anything to stop the protests. He

Opposition groups gathered together in Istanbul and established National

At the beginning of the 2012, as a result of the Arab Spring in Syria, in

Until Arab Spring revolutions started in the region, especially in these

Tunusia 3000 Saudi Arabia 2500

Yemen 110 USA 100

Denmark 100 Spain 100

China 100 Sudan 100

Sweden 100 Somali 70

Sources: “Işid’e hangi ülkeden kaç militant katıldı.” 04.09.2014, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/isid-e-hangi-

Meaning of the Arab Spring

After Tunisian president fled to Saudi Arabia, former head of the

Rached Ghannouchi is the leader of the Ennahda movement in Tunisia.

After Mubarak stepped down in the Egypt, he transformed his all

After killing Gaddafi, the authority transferred to the National

Ufuk Ulutaş, Furkan Torlak, “Devrimden Demokrasiye Tunus’un Seçimi”, Seta

Nurettin Ceviz, Tarihten Günümüze Libya(From Past to Present), ORSAM,

Ramazan Yıldırım, Tarık Abdulcelil, “Mısır Siyasi Haritası”, Seta vakfı

Barış Doster, Arap Baharı’ndan Demokrasi Beklemek, ORSAM Araştırma

Erkan Avcı. Arap Baharı’nda İsrail’in Tutumu ve İslamofobi Endüstrisi,

Muhammet Şerif Aydın, “Arap Baharı ve Mısır’da Yansımaları”, Atılım

U.S Library of Congress, ”Syria-Ottoman Empire”

USA Relations with Syria, March 20,2014,

Kronoloji: Libya Devrimi, November 29, 2011,

Timeline: Egypt’s revolution, Aljazeera, 14 February 2011,

Kronoloji; Mısır Devrimi,14 February 2011, Al jazeera,