Muhammad Ashir BME 163120

Section :- S1 Submitted to :- Sobia Jamal

Ashir
 Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications
for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good
scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. Historically, the
responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions' increase lies largely with the industrialized world,
though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future
emissions. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on
food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc.
The adaptive capacity of communities likely to be impacted by climate change is low in developing
countries. The efforts made by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provisions are clearly
inadequate to address the climate change challenge. The most effective way to address climate
change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable
technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation,
reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest importance to developing countries is
reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-economic systems to the projected climate
change. India and other developing countries will face the challenge of promoting mitigation and
adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort, and its implications for economic
development.
Global warming, also referred to as climate change, is the observed century-scale rise in
the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, and its related effects. Multiple lines of
scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming. Many of the observed changes since
the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record, which extends back to the
mid-19th century, and in paleoclimate proxy records covering thousands of years.
Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region.
Anticipated effects include increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels,
changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics. Warming is expected to be
greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme
weather events such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy
snowfall;[16] ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes.
Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and
the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels. Because the climate system has a
large "inertia" and greenhouse gases will remain in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these
effects will persist for not only decades or centuries, but for tens of thousands of years to come

2
Table of contents:-

1. Abstract

2 Introduction
a)Objective
b)Recognition of risk

3 Literature review

4 Research Questions
a)What is climate change
b)What does climate change have to do with spreading disease
c)What is process of global warming
d)What is causing global warming

5 Researcch methodology

6 Conclusion

7 Refrences

3
 2. Introduction
A) Objective
Extensive discussions are taking place throughout the world in all forms of media on the subjects
of global warming and climate change. These discussions point to the global dangers posed by the
earth’s warming. Discussions are also taking place on the related question of resource limitations,
given the manner in which humans are using the planet’s limited resources.
The purpose of this paper is to provide some education to the members of the CIA. This will
consist of providing some background to these issues, identifying some of the current and future
risks involved, the possible financial and other impacts posed by these risks, and the worldwide
efforts that are being made to minimize these risks. Empowered by a wider access to this
knowledge, actuaries can employ their expertise in quantifying these risks and provide guidance
to the different publics served by the CIA and thus enhance the well-being of society as a whole.
A failure by the actuarial profession to provide advice on these risks could damage its credibility.
The different sectors of the economy have been examining these risks. A timely input by the
actuarial profession would increase the visibility of the profession and create new opportunities.

B) Recognition of Risks
Due to the nature of the subject, the international discussions on climate change are driven by
worldwide climate scientists. There would be a few members of the CIA who would have a good
understanding of the issues involved. But the majority of actuaries may not have such
understanding. As a result, actuaries have to be guided by the work done by the climate science
community. No doubt, even within the climate change science community there are differing
views on the nature and amplitude of the risks and actuaries should be aware of these differing
views. However, considering the fact that a very large majority of that community is of the view
that the risks posed by climate change are serious and could cause disastrous consequences if
immediate action is not taken, actuaries have to consider these as distinct possibilities. The fact
that climate science is still evolving or there are opposing views would not be a valid reason for
the profession to choose to do nothing.
As understood from the work done by climate scientists, impacts of climate change will be
very wide ranging—extreme climate, increased losses due to floods and storms, rising sea levels,
food scarcity, clean water shortage, increased mortality and illness, devaluation of assets,
constraints on energy use, and so on. The actuarial community has to obtain a good understanding
of the issues involved. Just sitting there without doing anything will severely damage the
profession’s reputation.
The issue of climate change has been recognized by many professions. The actuarial
community can benefit from finding out the perceptions of the different professions of how climate
change will affect the work done by them.
A classic example of proactive action taken by the actuarial profession would be how it
handled the risk of AIDS in the early 1980s. As soon as the world became aware of the AIDS risk,
different actuarial bodies designed a variety of infection scenarios that enabled the life insurance
industry to set up adequate reserves for the additional mortality. A similar proactive approach can
4
be taken to address the risks posed by climate change. The methods and solutions would be
different, but the first steps would be risk recognition and quantification for different scenarios.

3. LITERATURE REVIEW ON :-

 Climate change impacts on urban city centres (2007)

This study has undertaken a review of the literature on studies of climate change on cities. The
literature review has also collated the key issues and the state of evidence by sector/theme for
cities. These relate to sea level rise on coastal cities (and storm surge), infrastructure damage from
extremes, health, energy use, water demand and water availability, tourism and cultural heritage,
urban biodiversity and air pollution. This sectoral analysis shows a strong variation in impacts with
location and site. The review has also considered methodological issues. Understanding and
improving methodological approaches, and the way they can affect the impacts and economic cost
estimates, is essential to ensure that this type of information can be effectively used in city analysis.
Several areas are highlighted to improve methods and consistency between impact assessments.

4. Research questions
A) What is Climate Change?
Climate change is the subject of how weather patterns change over decades or longer.
Climate change takes place due to natural and human influences. Since the Industrial Revolution
(i.e., 1750), humans have contributed to climate change through the emissions of GHGs and
aerosols, and through changes in land use, resulting in a rise in global temperatures. Increases in
global temperatures may have different impacts, such as an increase in storms, floods, droughts,
and sea levels, and the decline of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers.

B) What does climate change have to do with spreading disease?

Rising global temperatures exacerbate heat-related diseases such as heat exhaustion, heatstroke,
and cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney diseases. On average, extreme heat kills more
Americans every year than floods, hurricanes, lightning, and tornadoes taken together.
Climate change also has a strong impact on food-borne and water-borne diseases, which thrive
in warmer, wetter conditions, as well as diseases carried by insects, snails, and other cold-blooded
animals, whose ranges are extended by climactic shifts. As the world becomes warmer and wetter
due to climate change, diseases that thrive in these conditions (such as malaria) will spread,
sickening and killing more people each year.
C) What is Process of Global Warming?
The earth receives energy through radiation from the sun. GHGs play an important role of
trapping heat, maintaining the earth’s temperature at a level that can sustain life. This phenomenon
is called the greenhouse effect and is natural and necessary to support life on earth. Without the
greenhouse effect, the earth would be approximately 33°C cooler than it is today. In recent
centuries, humans have contributed to an increase in atmospheric GHGs as a result of increased
fossil fuel burning and deforestation. The rise in GHGs is the primary cause of global warming
over the last century.
5
 There are three main datasets that are referenced to measure global surface temperatures since
1850. These datasets show warming of between +0.8°C and +1.0°C since 1900. Since 1950, land-
only measurements indicate warming trends of between +1.1°C and +1.3°C, as land temperatures
tend to respond more quickly than oceans to the earth’s changing climate. Figure 2.1 shows the
global surface temperature trend (1880–2014).

Figure.Instrumental temperature data 1880–2014.

While global warming is typically measured on multi-decadal time scales (30+ years),
attributing trends over time periods of less than 30 years can be tricky, due to the influence of
natural variability. Natural variability is defined as variations in climate that are due to internal
interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice. Those variations occur
with or without climate change and are often described as “noise” or normal variations around
a “normal” value.

D) What is Causing Global Warming?

The climate of the earth is affected by a number of factors. These factors include output of
energy from the sun (warming effect), volcanic eruptions (cooling effect), concentration of
GHGs in the atmosphere (warming effect), and aerosols (cooling effect).
Since the Industrial Revolution (i.e., 1750), the largest contributor to the increase in global
warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), followed by methane (CH4). CO2 concentrations have
increased from 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1960 to 401 ppm in 2015—a 44% increase
(Figure 2.3).

Figure. .Growth of CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory since 1960

6
Since 1951, approximately 100% of warming is attributed to anthropogenic forcings, while more
than 100% is due to greenhouse gases due to offsets in anthropogenic aerosols (see Figure).
Natural forcings and internal variability are considered to be negligible during this time period.

Figure. Growth of CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory since 1960.

Water vapour has an important indirect effect on temperature increases resulting from
increasing GHG concentrations. Increased global temperature resulting from GHGs increases the
capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapour, thus acting as a positive feedback, as water
vapour also produces a greenhouse effect. An increase in global temperature by 1°C results in
approximately a 7% increase in atmospheric water vapour. “Therefore, although CO2 is the main
anthropogenic control knob on climate, water vapour is a strong and fast feedback that amplifies
any initial forcing by a typical factor of between two and three. Water vapour is not a significant
initial forcing, but is nevertheless a fundamental agent of climate change”.
Not all industrial emissions result in a warming bias. Aerosols resulting from industrial
emissions have worked to offset about 26% of greenhouse warming due to blocking solar radiation
from reaching the earth’s surface. There is, however, large uncertainty regarding the extent of
influence that aerosols have on climate, mainly due to aerosol interactions with clouds.
GHGs (particularly CO2) have a longer residence time in the atmosphere (~100 years)
compared to aerosols (only 10 days). As a result, the short-term effect of industrial pollution can
be cooling followed by long-term warming. Aerosols are expected to offset a lower percentage of
greenhouse warming in most future scenarios due to residence time, which allows for the
possibility of an acceleration of future warming even without an acceleration of GHG
concentrations.
The greenhouse effect occurs when solar energy making contact with the earth’s surface is
retransmitted to the atmosphere in the form of infrared thermal radiation. This radiation has a
lower wave frequency than solar energy itself. GHG molecules absorb this thermal radiation at
low frequencies, causing these molecules to vibrate. These greenhouse molecules then emit energy
in the form of infrared photons, many of which return to the earth’s surface. Non-GHGs such as
oxygen and nitrogen do not absorb thermal radiation.

7
 The greenhouse effect is measured in terms of Radiative Forcing (RF) in units of watts per
square meter (W/m2). Since the Industrial Revolution, the total RF is estimated to have increased
by approximately 2.3 W/m2 (1.1 W/m2 – 3.3 W/m2; 90% confidence interval) mainly due to the
net effect of increased GHG and aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere.
The response of climate to the change in the earth’s energy is referred to as climate sensitivity.
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is used to gauge the long-term response (i.e., 100+ years)
to a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, and estimates range from 1.5°C to 4.5°C
according to the IPCC. This corresponds with an increase in RF of +3.7 W/m2 (+3.0W/m2 to +4.4
W/m2). Alternatively, a Transient Climate Response (TCR) estimate is used to gauge shorter-
term impacts (i.e., over 20 years) to a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, and
estimates range from 1.0°C to 2.5°C. The shorterterm estimates are lower due to the time it takes
to heat up the oceans.
E) What united States doing to combat global warming?
In recent years, the United States has taken significant steps (both at the federal and state levels)
to combat global warming by increasing the nation’s use of renewable energy and curbing
greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency initiatives and carbon pollution standards.
When signing the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016, the United States committed to making further
cuts to carbon emissions with the aim of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius
in the 21st century.
In 2015, President Barack Obama proposed the Clean Power Plan, which would have reduced
carbon emissions from existing power plants by at least 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Substantial gains have already been made, with U.S. emissions from the power sector being at the
lowest point since 1991. The power sector had been the nation’s largest source of carbon pollution,
at 31 percent of the total; at present, the transportation sector is the largest source of greenhouse
gas emissions.
The Trump Administration has rolled back several of the previous administration's climate
actions, including the Clean Power Plan. But states, including California and New York, are
moving forward with policies to curb carbon emissions and favor renewable energy and energy
efficiency. As of September 2016, 20 states and the District of Columbia have set their own
greenhouse gas reduction targets.
5.

MAIN GOAL CO2

The goal is simple. Carbon dioxide is the climate’s worst enemy. It’s released when oil, coal, and
other fossil fuels are burned for energy—the energy we use to power our homes, cars, and
smartphones. By using less of it, we can curb our own contribution to climate change while also
saving money. Here are a dozen easy, effective ways each one of us can make a difference:

8
 A) Power your home with renewable energy.
Choose a utility company that generates at least half its power from wind or solar and has been
certified by Green-e Energy, an organization that vets renewable energy options. If that isn’t
possible for you, take a look at your electric bill; many utilities now list other ways to support
renewable sources on their monthly statements and websites.

B) Weatherize, weatherize, weatherize.

“Building heating and cooling are among the biggest uses of energy,” Haq says. Indeed, heating
and air-conditioning account for almost half of home energy use. You can make your space more
energy efficient by sealing drafts and ensuring it’s adequately insulated. You can also
claim federal tax credits for many energy-efficiency home improvements.

C) Invest in energy-efficient appliances.

Since they were first implemented nationally in 1987, efficiency standards for dozens of appliances
and products have kept 2.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air. That’s about the same
amount as the annual carbon pollution coughed up by nearly 440 million cars. “Energy efficiency
is the lowest-cost way to reduce emissions,” Haq says. When shopping for refrigerators, washing
machines, and other appliances, look for the Energy Star label. It will tell you which are the most
efficient.

D) Reduce water waste.

Saving water reduces carbon pollution, too. That's because it takes a lot of energy to pump, heat,
and treat your water. So take shorter showers, turn off the tap while brushing your teeth, and switch
to WaterSense-labeled fixtures and appliances. The EPA estimates that if just one out of every 100
American homes were retrofitted with water-efficient fixtures, about 100 million kilowatt-hours
of electricity per year would be saved—avoiding 80,000 tons of global warming pollution.

9
 E) Actually eat the food you buy—and make less of it meat.
Approximately 10 percent of U.S. energy use goes into growing, processing, packaging, and
shipping food—about 40 percent of which just winds up in the landfill. “If you’re wasting less
food, you’re likely cutting down on energy consumption,” Haq says. And since livestock
products are among the most resource-intensive to produce, eating meat-free meals can make a
big difference, too.

F) Buy better bulbs.

LED lightbulbs use up to 80 percent less energy than conventional incandescents. They’re also
cheaper in the long run: A 10-watt LED that replaces your traditional 60-watt bulb will save you
$125 over the lightbulb’s life.

G) Pull the plug(s)

Taken together, the outlets in your home are likely powering about 65 different devices – an
average load for a home in the U.S. Audio and video devices, cordless vacuums and power tools,
and other electronics use energy even when they're not charging. This "idle load" across all U.S.
households adds up to the output of 50 large power plants in the U.S. So don't leave fully charged
devices plugged into your home's outlets, unplug rarely used devices or plug them into power strips
and timers, and adjust your computers and monitors to automatically power down to the lowest
power mode when not in use.

H) Drive a fuel-efficient vehicle

Gas-smart cars, such as hybrids and fully electric vehicles, save fuel and money. And once all cars
and light trucks meet 2025’s clean car standards, which means averaging 54.5 miles per gallon,
they’ll be a mainstay. For good reason: Relative to a national fleet of vehicles that averaged only
28.3 miles per gallon in 2011, Americans will spend $80 billion less at the pump each year and cut
their automotive emissions by half. Before you buy a new set of wheels, compare fuel-economy
performance here.

10
 I) Maintain your ride.
If all Americans kept their tires properly inflated, we could save 1.2 billion gallons of gas each
year. A simple tune-up can boost miles per gallon anywhere from 4 percent to 40 percent, and a
new air filter can get you a 10 percent boost.

J) Rethink planes, trains, and automobiles.

Choosing to live in walkable smart-growth cities and towns with quality public transportation
leads to less driving, less money spent on fuel, and less pollution in the air. Less frequent flying
can make a big difference, too. “Air transport is a major source of climate pollution,” Haq says.
“If you can take a train instead, do that.”

K) Shrink your carbon profile.

You can offset the carbon you produce by purchasing carbon offsets, which represent clean power
that you can add to the nation’s energy grid in place of power from fossil fuels. But not all carbon
offset companies are alike. Do your homework to find the best supplier.

6. Concluding observations
The objective of the paper was to present the views on climate change and resource sustainability
that have been widely accepted in the world. On any contentious issue, it is impossible to have
100% acceptance. No doubt, there are differing views on these dual issues. Each differing view
has to be evaluated on its own merits.
The earth has been showing a rapidly warming trend. This has been primarily caused by the
increasing concentration of the GHGs—particularly carbon dioxide. There is worldwide
acceptance for the fact that the largest contributor to the increase in CO 2 concentration is the
burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. This is causing climate change that will have a very wide-
ranging impact on life on earth. This will include increased frequency of extreme temperatures,
floods, hurricanes, storms, droughts, and sea levels, to name a few. If no immediate action is taken

11
and the concentration of GHGs is allowed to increase unchecked, the resulting consequences could
be disastrous and humanity could reach a point of no return.
The earth has limited resources. Also, there are limits on the renewability of some of its
renewable resources. Humanity is using substantially more resources than the earth can renew. We
all need to change the way we live to achieve a proper balance.
In order to face the challenges posed by these dual issues, the world has to act in unison. This
will require cooperation from all countries in the world. There are a number of disparities to be
addressed. There is a very wide range of per-capita emissions—generally, the wealthy countries
having higher per-capita emissions. There is a perception among the emerging economies that the
world has reached the current situation due to the past emissions by high emitters and that they
should be willing to share a higher cost of moving to low-carbon economy. Further, different
regions will be affected differently—some may not feel the consequences; at least immediately.
Such countries may not want to join the worldwide efforts in a meaningful way. Getting all
countries to follow a common path will be the biggest challenge in the years to come.
Even though climate change is a pressing threat that isn’t going away, we can have a significant
impact on how it affects us in the near future. By investing in renewable energy and energy
efficiency, people, communities, businesses, and governments can reduce the amount of
greenhouse gas emissions reaching the atmosphere and slow global warming. This will help
minimize the consequences of climate change in the present and for future generations.

7. Refrences
http://climatestate.com/2013/09/02/world-ocean-heat-content-and-thermosteric-sea-level-change-0-2000-
m1955-2010/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD013094/full
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.432/pdf
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Hansen_etal_1.pdf
https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/publications/literature-review-on-climate-change-
impacts-on-urban-city-centres

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501998e
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686.full
http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/abstract
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-hiatus-doesnt-take-heat-off-global-warming.html
https://www.genevaassociation.org/media/878689/pr14-06-climate-risk-statement.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/env/

12