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Kristina Hixson
Mr. Phillips
14 December 2018
In 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) voted on whether or not to leave the European Union
(EU). The world was shocked when Scotland and Northern Ireland (NI) voted to remain part of
the EU while England and Wales voted to withdraw. This decision, now known as Brexit, has
many different possible outcomes, all of which will have different effects for the UK, but will
especially impact NI because of its special soft border with Ireland. Serina Sandhu, an executive
news reporter for I News, describes the three main possible outcomes of Brexit as a soft Brexit, a
hard Brexit, and a no deal Brexit. A soft Brexit means the UK would still intimately affiliate with
the EU. A hard Brexit would remove the UK from all Brexit agreements. Lastly, a no-deal Brexit
means that the UK and EU would not be able to come to a deal and therefore no transition period
would take place. The best solution for Northern Ireland’s economy is a soft Brexit because it
would allow NI and Ireland to keep the soft border, and it allows the possibility of a reunited
Ireland.
The border between Ireland and NI has been a soft border for about the past twenty years.
This means that the border has been virtually free of border control, trade regulations, or taxes on
exports and imports. According to Sam McBride, a political editor for The News Letter in
Belfast, there are many benefits for the citizens near the border that come from having a soft
border between the nations. Some of these benefits include having a job in Ireland while owning
healthcare, and most importantly, giving free access for people to transport goods across the
border. The only problems with the current soft border are minor nuisances involving different
currencies in the countries and complicated mobile phone network contracts for people who
If the final arrangement reached between the UK and EU involved a hard border between
NI and Ireland, the currently relaxed relationship between NI and Ireland would become
burdened with new border regulations creating a much more obvious separation between the
nations. Compared to the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland relies the most heavily on agriculture.
If a no-deal Brexit takes place and the border between NI and Ireland becomes hard, severe taxes
from the World Trade Organization would make animal and food transport across the border
much more difficult and expensive (McBride). People living in Ireland and NI now are used to a
very relaxed border, so drastically changing rules surrounding the border would not only hurt NI
and Ireland’s economies, it could also cause an increase in crime. These crimes would involve
illegally trading and selling products in order to avoid the challenges and expenses of dealing
with a hard border. “The fear in Dublin is that our border towns would become a backdoor into
the UK,” says Phil Hogan, the European Commissioner for Agriculture. “In that instance what
sort of fortress would the Northern Ireland border have to become to close that backdoor?” (qtd.
in McKinney) Luckily, both the EU and UK government have expressed support to keep a soft
border. Recently, Theresa May addressed what she and the EU want for the border, saying “We
both agree that the Withdrawal Agreement needs to include a backstop to ensure that if there’s a
delay in implementing our new relationship, there still won’t be a hard border between NI and
encouragement for it under the Good Friday agreement. Because more people have shown
support for a united Ireland in recent years, there is a high likelihood that a referendum, would
unite Ireland (“Will Ireland unite after Brexit?”). This support comes from not only the
friendliness between the nations, but also the positive prospects that could come from uniting.
organization called KRB Inc., NI’s gross domestic product (GDP) would fall anywhere between
3.8 and 10.1 billion euros from 2021 to 2025 if a hard Brexit or no deal Brexit takes place. But,
the report also discovered that NI’s GDP would rise if they joined in a united Ireland, making
uniting the most economically sensible decision (“United Ireland ‘only winning…’”). Backing
for a vote on Irish unity to take place has been frequently asserted by the political party Sinn Fein
While the nationalist party Sinn Fein is most against a hard border between Ireland and
NI, unionist parties such as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are more opposed to leaving
the UK. The leader of the DUP, Arlene Foster, has claimed that if NI leaves the United
Kingdom, the new border would hinder Ireland’s ability to trade with the UK and cause long-
lasting problems (“Foster: Border in Irish Sea…”). Theresa May agrees, stating, “Just as it would
unacceptable to break up the United Kingdom’s own common market by creating a customs and
regulatory border down the Irish Sea (qtd. in McKinney).” Although Irish nationalists oppose to
remaining in the UK, Stephen Gamble, a News Letter Belfast journalist reports Sinn Fein
president Mary McDonald agrees that before Britain has fully exited the EU, the UK government
should work to ensure that there are no obstacles for trade between them and NI.
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Despite being a respected political party in NI, the DUP has been misrepresenting the
majority of NI’s views and is not acting in favor of the country. The DUP’s rejection of the
possibility of a backstop - an insurance policy in the case of a no deal Brexit that would keep NI
in the EU-has exhausted industrial and trade networks that do not want to suffer from any Brexit
decisions according to The Guardian columnist Dawn Foster. “Against its better interests, the
DUP has embraced those who view Northern Ireland as a disposable appendage, if not a liability,
to England’s future prosperity,” says Edward Burke, the director for Centre for Conflict,
Security, and Terrorism at the University of Nottingham The DUP is pushing for these major
decisions when they do not even represent a majority of NI. The DUP was the only major
Northern Ireland political party that supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum, as reported by the
Irish correspondent for The Guardian, Rory Carroll, and their continued stubbornness since then
could ultimately contribute to a no-deal Brexit. “Their current stance is taking us over the cliff to
a no-deal Brexit,” says Stephen Farry, an Alliance Party member of legislative assembly (qtd. In
“Unionists not representing majority…”). As discussed earlier, a no-deal Brexit would be bad for
NI and the whole UK. The lasting consequences would tarnish the name of the DUP and all of
NI in the eyes of the UK for the foreseeable future because of the numerous negative effects they
Although a no-deal Brexit would be the worst case scenario for everyone involved, NI is
likely to suffer from hardships no matter how Brexit turns out. Several solutions that would keep
NI a part of the UK have been suggested, including the Max-fac plan and the Canada-style
agreement. The Max-fac plan would avoid the need for border control between NI and Ireland by
using computers to digitally follow cargo that passes across the countries’ boundaries. The
Canada-style agreement would discard most regulations from the EU, but would not completely
Hixson 5
remove the need for a hard border (Sandhu). While both of these plans could have some positive
outcomes, the best solution for NI would be a reunification with Ireland. This provides the most
secure possibilities of keeping a friendly relationship between all of the countries involved while
Works Cited
Burke, Edward. "Whatever the Brexit outcome, it will be bad news for the DUP." The Guardian,
Carroll, Rory. "Brexit's 'doom loop': the 'blood red lines' that drive May's DUP allies"." The
"Foster: Border in Irish Sea will impede NI's access to trade deals." The News Letter [Belfast], 10
Foster, Dawn. "The DUP’s overreaching on Brexit could lead to a united Ireland." The
Gamble, Stephen. "There can be no trade border in Irish Sea: SF." The News Letter [Belfast], 7
McBride, Sam. "What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Northern Ireland." The News Letter
Laud, Georgina. "Brexit: Did Northern Ireland vote for Brexit? Does Northern Ireland want to
McKinney, Conor James. "The Irish border and Brexit." Full Fact, 12 Apr. 2018, fullfact.org.
Sandhu, Serina. "What's a 'no deal Brexit? The consequences of the UK leaving the EU without
"Unionists not representing majority view on Brexit, Sinn Fein claims." Belfast Telegraph, 9
"United Ireland 'only winning scenario' after Brexit-report." The News Letter [Belfast], 7 Nov.
"Will Ireland unite after Brexit?" The Week, 17 Sept. 2018, www.theweek.co.uk