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FOREWORD CONTENTS
Cavendish Maxwell is a highly respected independent firm of chartered surveyors and 4 House Price Timeline
property consultants, focusing on real estate services throughout the Middle East and Africa.
Established in 2008, Cavendish Maxwell is now one of the most influential consultancy firms
in the region. 6 Price Performance
As a fully qualified member firm of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and
8 Rent Performance
with extensive knowledge of the region, Cavendish Maxwell has the necessary experience,
expertise and insight to deliver property advice of the highest standard. Our reports are used
for loan security, audit, insurance reinstatement, dispute resolution, risk management, debt 10 Q4 2018 - Q1 2019 Upcoming Supply
recovery, performance analysis, project financing, development strategy and government
initiative implementation.
12 Residential Sales Overview
We provide a comprehensive range of property services across all our departments, each of
which is headed by highly skilled, experienced and fully qualified RICS chartered surveyors. 15 Property Monitor Residential Survey
Our various teams provide valuation, agency, advisory, management, capital investment,
research and building consultancy services across all property types and sectors.
16 Sector Focus - Building Consultancy
Our Q3 2018 report provides a summary of the Dubai residential market as well as a
sector focus on building consultancy. Price movement, rent and yield statistics, residential
18 Methodology
transactions and upcoming supply of residential properties are provided through Property
Monitor, a real estate intelligence platform, powered by Cavendish Maxwell. The report also
incorporates the Property Monitor Residential Survey, conducted among partner agents
operating within Dubai. The survey showcases how new enquiries, leasing activity and
transactions, among other metrics, changed over the previous quarter. It also provides an
outlook on the following quarter and predictions by professionals, which are studied against
real performance.
TIMELINE
apartments and independent homes. Prices for apartments are also shifting towards the lower end of the band, averaging at AED 1.2
million in Q3 2018. Secondary market transfers, which began outpacing off-plan activity for villas/townhouses since November 2017, have
AED 1.9 million and apartment transactions have continued the trend this quarter. Meanwhile, in the first nine months of 2018, off-plan transfers for apartments have continued to lead the
averaged AED 1.2 million. tally as developers focus their attention on lower-priced inventory, aggressive payment plans, fee waivers and other incentives. According
to data from Property Monitor, 26% of the off-plan transfers for apartments in the first nine months of 2018 were in the AED 1,200 to 1,500
per sq ft price bracket. By comparison, the most active price band in the secondary market for apartments (26% of total) was the AED
500 to 800 per sq ft segment. Studio and one bedroom units continued to be the most active type transferred in both the off-plan and
secondary market in 2018 to date.
4.0M
Dubai House Price Timeline Average Sales Price Q3 2018
3.5M Sales Price (AED) from January 2008 AED 1.2 Million AED 1.9 Million
APARTMENTS VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES
to September 2018
3.0M
2.5M
2.0M
1.5M
1.0
0.5M
Rebound
growth for the
general
Bond issuance Abu Dhabi’s $10 market - oil Expo 2020 New market Oil Price Affordable
Oil price peak Oil price collapse prices above peak Oil price Brexit
by the Dubai billion loan to announcement collapse housing
at $145/barrel at $32/barrel $100 deregulation
Central Bank Dubai at $47/barrel arrived
Q1-2008
Q2-2008
Q3-2008
Q4-2008
Q1-2009
Q2-2009
Q3-2009
Q4-2009
Q1-2010
Q2-2010
Q3-2010
Q4-2010
Q1-2011
Q2-2011
Q3-2011
Q4-2011
Q1-2012
Q2-2012
Q3-2012
Q4-2012
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Q4-2013
Q1-2014
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
Q2-2018
Q3-2018
Source: Property Monitor
Note: Dubai House Price Timeline tracks residential property transactions from Dubai Land Department (off-plan and secondary) to derive monthly and quarterly average transacted prices for apartments and villas/townhouses.
PRICE In Q3 2018 sales prices across the residential market registered quarterly declines of 1.4% and 1.3% for villas/townhouses and apartments
PERFORMANCE
respectively. Subdued economic activity and handover of new supply later this year is likely to exert further downward pressure on housing
According to the Property Monitor Index, sales prices. Meanwhile, the announcements by the UAE government in 2018 on new ten-year visa regulations and a five-year residency
apartment and villa/townhouse prices visa for retired expatriates, could have a positive impact on market sentiment in the short term. However, the details of the new retiree visa
options are yet to be announced and the direct impact on the real estate sector would only become visible after it has been implemented,
have registered 12 month declines of which is expected in early 2019. According to information released so far, to qualify for the retiree visa, an expatriate should have an
investment in a property worth AED 2 million, or financial savings of around AED 1 million, or have an active income of AED 20,000 per
3.4% on average. month.
RENT
PERFORMANCE
Rent declines for residential properties in
Dubai averaged 6% over the last 12 months
and 1.3% on average quarter on quarter
-4.9 DIFC
Rental declines were more pronounced in Dubailand, The Greens in Emirates Living, Motor City, Arabian Ranches and Victory Heights AED 74,000
averaging 12 month change of around 7%. Rent decline is expected to continue during the last quarter of the year and beginning of 2019,
AED 99,560
with new handovers planned in both freehold and leasehold communities across Dubai. However, the impact on some developments will
be less notable if they benefit from unique demand drivers such as beachfront location, quality finishes and superior community facilities. AED 172,170
AED 80,000
AED 95,000
Business Bay -6.0 AED 146,782 International City -5.9
AED 71,994
AED 30,625
AED 85,000
AED 41,380
AED 125,850
AED 56,700
AED 58,558
Rental Cheques For
Apartments and Villas/
AED 70,000 AED 64,860
Al Qusais
Oud Al
Q4 2018 - Q1 2019 Muteena
UPCOMING SUPPLY
Approximately 6,000 residential units have been handed over
across Dubai in Q3 2018.
Al Jaddaf
Downtown
Burj Khalifa
72% 28% Business Bay
APARTMENTS VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES
The majority of the handovers during the third quarter of 2018 were in Jumeirah International
Village Circle, Downtown Burj Khalifa, Town Square, and Dubai South with more
than 300 units being handed over in each location. More than 72% of the handed
City
over units were apartments. For the remainder of the year the majority of the Meydan City
upcoming supply is concentrated in Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai
Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Town Square.
Dubai Silicon
Palm Jumeirah Mohammed bin Rashid City Oasis
Barsha
Heights
Dubai Marina Living
PROPERTY MONITOR Legends
Dubai South
10 © Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com © Property Monitor 2018 | propertymonitor.ae 11
Q3 2018 Dubai Market Report Q3 2018 Dubai Market Report
OVERVIEW
Off-plan transfers accounted for 53% of the total 5,110 1,240
transfers in Q3 2018 APARTMENTS VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES
Business Bay, Mohammed bin Rashid City and Jumeirah Village Circle dominated the off-plan apartment transfers during the third quarter of
the year. On the other hand, International City, Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village Circle led the secondary market apartment transfers, which
accounted for 31% of the total apartment secondary transfers during Q3 2018. Secondary market transfers among villas surpassed the off-plan
transfers in Q3 2018, led by Emirates Living, Arabian Ranches, Mudon developments which together accounted for 30% of the total secondary
market transfers registered during the third quarter.
298
No. of Transfers
No. of Transfers
300 300
284 274
261 257
250 250
200 200
50 50
0 0
Mohammed bin
Rashid City
Business
Bay
Jumeirah
Village Circle
International
City
Downtown
Burj Khalifa
Dubai
Marina
International
City
Jumeirah
Village Circle
Barsha
Heights
Palm
Jumeirah
Source: Property Monitor
Top Five Locations for Villa/Townhouse Sales in Q3 2018
Off-Plan Sales Secondary Market Sales
160 160
145
140 140
120 120
105
No. of Transfers
No. of Transfers
100 100
80 79 80 77
67 67
60 60
58 55
40 37 40
25
20 20
0 0
Dubai South
Mohammed bin
Rashid City
Villa Nova
Mohammed bin
Rashid City
Town Square
Dubai
Hills
Wadi Al Safa
Emirates
Living
Arabian
Ranches
Mudon
Note: The above information is based on daily transactions data published by Dubai Land Department from property registrations during
the period. This does not reflect the date of sale and should not be construed as such.
SURVEY
RESULTS
Looking Back – Q3 2018
Predictions Reality
The majority of agents surveyed had predicted apartment and villa/ Apartment and villa/townhouse prices have declined on average by
townhouse prices to decrease by up to 5%. 1.3% in Q3 2018 with 12 month decline of 3.4% on average.
The majority of agents had predicted new buyer enquiries, seller According to data from real estate agencies, transaction levels for Q3
instructions and agreed sales would increase in Q3 2018. 2018 are lower than Q2 2018.
21.9%
22.9%
30.2% 29.2%
71.3%
Decrease Increase Remain the same
38.5% 40.6%
33.7%
Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5%
19.8% 20.8%
Percentage of agents who predict
20.8%
agreed sales will:
16.8%
18.8%
28.1%
44.8% 52.1%
64.4%
Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5%
Decrease Increase Remain the same
Source: Property Monitor Residential Survey
BUILDING CONSULTANCY Building costs have traditionally been expressed in terms of the initial capital cost only, which can allow a low development cost but with
the disadvantage of high operating expenditure (OPEX) costs for owners and tenants in the future. Life cycle costing is the process of
estimating the total cost of an asset over an extended period of time and if implemented correctly, using forecasting to make rational
choices, can provide significant savings in the maintenance and running costs of a building in the future. It is most effective if used during
the planning stage, but can still be adopted for existing buildings in terms of making decisions on repairs, retrofitting and refurbishment
There are various interwoven factors that can influence the value of a building, which will change over time as the building ages and the programmes, taking into account capital sums (both present and future), recurring costs (maintenance, running costs etc) and sinking funds
area around the property develops. Some of the tangible elements that a building owner should consider when keeping their property in to replace assets on life expiry. A life cycle cost problem we identified within the UAE has developed in relation to both development and
a condition of peak performance are building age, condition, and energy efficiency. For example, in most countries buildings will typically short term ownership patterns, whereby developers with no long term interests in a building may prefer low initial construction costs, and
account for 40% of overall energy use, whereas in the UAE this is around 80%. While changes to regulations will have an immediate owners of jointly owned properties may feel unwilling to contribute to sinking funds for communal assets that will require replacement long
improvement on new builds, the existing building stock is more difficult to tackle but continues to be in need of improvement to maintain after they have left the building. This can have the effect of both high OPEX costs and insufficient funds for replacements.
value.
While making the decision for considering any property for refurbishment, the following aspects should be assessed:
Refurbishment Planning
Building Condition Life Cycle Fire Energy
Information* Survey Costing Issues Efficiency
CONDITION SURVEYS
Condition surveys are important when considering refurbishment of any development and are carried out to identify any defects and Maintenance Design
establish a baseline for refurbishment. Some of the most common defects we find in UAE buildings are incorrect design, lack of proper
maintenance and poor workmanship, which accounts for around 50% of all defects discovered.
Costing stages in a
building life cycle
Condition Assessment Process Factors causing defects in UAE buildings
During the condition survey process, repair works can be scheduled
using cross tabular analysis of condition rating and potential risk in v
order to prioritise remedial works. 6%
Operation Construction
Condition Condition Score Condition Description
METHODOLOGY PEOPLE
Sale prices and rents are derived from Property Monitor (www.propertymonitor.ae), a real estate intelligence platform established by
Cavendish Maxwell in 2014. Property Monitor provides real-time, market-wide transactional data and trends. Working with governments,
agencies, banks, developers and corporate investors, it provides deeper insight into real estate advisory, investment, and lending activities.
The average sales price per sq ft is based on the Property Monitor Index which incorporates signed contracts, registered transactions,
valuations and listings verified by Cavendish Maxwell’s market leading valuation department. Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons) MRICS Nigel Armstrong FMAAT
Founder and Chairman Chief Executive Officer
Property Monitor Residential Survey is a quarterly study of agent opinion designed to identify residential market sentiment. This research
highlights how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed from quarter to quarter with agent predictions E: jay.grant@cavendishmaxwell.com E: nigel.armstrong@cavendishmaxwell.com
compared to actual real market performance.
Supply projections for residential projects are based on the Property Monitor Supply Tracker which tracks supply in real time, regular
tracking of construction projects, new launches and delays. This is achieved through site inspections as well as regular feedback from
developers, contractors, Cavendish Maxwell’s building consultancy team and related government entities.
STRATEGIC CONSULTING
AND RESEARCH James Cresswell BA (Hons) MSc MRICS
Partner
Sofia Underabi MRICS AAPI
Partner
40
Head of Commercial Valuation Head of Residential Valuation
Our consulting and research team includes seasoned professionals with international advisory
experience offering bespoke and localised services. Through them, our clients immediately E: james.cresswell@cavendishmaxwell.com E: sofia.underabi@cavendishmaxwell.com
gain access to our knowledge base, technical expertise and highly skilled individuals, making us
the development partner of choice. The team leverages their global expertise to offer tailored
advice to clients in the MENA region covering all real estate classes including residential, office,
hospitality, education, mixed-use developments, among others.
BANKS
The team partners with developers, investment companies, family offices and the government
to deliver actionable development and real estate investment strategies aligned with prevailing
and forecasted market conditions. The work of the advisory team is supported by Property
Monitor, the UAE’s only data source offered by RICS accredited property professionals, as well as
Our documents and advice meet banking and
multidisciplinary valuation and investment departments.
audit criteria, proven by our presence on over 40 Moe Abeidat Eng. Craig Ross BSc (Hons) MRICS
Chief Technology Officer Partner
bank panels across the Middle East.
Property Monitor Head of Building Consultancy
E: moe.abeidat@propertymonitor.ae E: craig.ross@cavendishmaxwell.com
KEY SERVICES
Market Portfolio Development Property Advisory
Research Strategy Recommendations Data Services
The report and analysis does not purport to represent a formal valuation of any property interest and must not be construed as such. Such analysis including forward looking statements are opinions and
estimates only and are based on a wide range of variables which may not be capable of being determined with accuracy. Variation in any one of these variables can have a material impact on the analysis
and we draw your attention to this. Cavendish Maxwell and Property Monitor do not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on
this report.
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