DETERMINING THE

STRENGTH OF ARGUMENT
Submitted to: Sir Yasir Sultan

Submitted By: Arbaz Iftikhar

Roll No: 1201-BH-PS-17
Section: A-2
 Assignment: Determining the strength of an argument

Article Name: Population and Security

Writer: Zahid Hussain
Newspaper: Dawn
Publishing Date: 24/10/18

Main Argument
Population explosion, presents one of the most serious threats to our national security. Evidence
shows that high population growth is a major destabilizing factor in the least developed
countries. There are many examples to show that tensions leading up to conflict may have been
heightened by demographic pressures.
Supporting Arguments:
Major Premise:
1. One of the highest population growth rates and a huge youth bulge have created an
extremely dangerous situation for Pakistan. Due to little investment in education and
slow economic growth, the youth bulge is fast becoming a liability and serious threat to
the country’s internal security. The large young generation has already turned the country
into a breeding ground for violent extremism, and could cause further social dislocation
and conflict.
2. Pakistan’s population has doubled over the past few decades, becoming the fifth most
populous nation only behind India, China, the US and Indonesia. Pakistan needs an
annual economic growth rate of at least 6pc to 7pc to absorb millions of people entering
the job market every year. The population of the unemployed has drastically risen with
the economic growth rate averaging around 3pc over the past decade, thus creating a
dangerous situation.
3. Pakistan is sitting on a potential demographic disaster with more than 120 million of its
population under 25 years of age. . With an extremely low literacy rate and bleak job
opportunities, the future prospects of the young generation are uncertain and dark.
Growing frustration among the youth makes them vulnerable to prejudices and
extremism.
4. The widening social, cultural and economic divide has made the less advantaged youth
receptive to extremism and violence. It has created a mindset that facilitates a militant
 agenda. Many studies have shown that there is a direct link between religious extremism
and social and economic marginalization.
Minor Premise:
A study conducted by Population Action International shows that about 80 per cent of the
world’s civil conflicts since the 1970s have occurred in countries with young, fast-growing
populations.
Analysis
The above stated claim of writer is strong because there is a close relation between population
explosion, security, illiteracy and extremism. Many instances have been occurred in world where jobless
young men were being involved in criminal activities.
Article Name: Water Crises in Pak & its Solutions
Writer: Abdul Ghani Chohan
Newspaper: Pakobserver
Publishing Date: 22/08/18
Main Argument
Among all the looming challenges that Pakistan is facing, water crisis is the most critical
problem of the country. Construction of mega but undisputed dams is inevitable so that the
country may get the track of development, progress and prosperity.
Supporting Arguments
Major Premise:
1. According to the world resource institute, the country is among the leading five that face
extremely high water scarcity and low access to safe drinking water and sanitation.
2. The mega dams of Pakistan at Tarbela and Mangla are 40 years old and their storage
capacity is falling because of silting and sedimentation. They store only 30 days of
average water demand compared to 220 days for India.
3. Besides the administrative flaws, Pakistan’s all-time enemy is all adding salt to sorrows.
India has violated Indus Water Treaty many times by building dams on western rivers.
Its projects such as Bughlier and Kishenganga Dam on Chenab and Jhelum rivers may
eat up substantial portion of Pakistan’s share of water.
4. The agriculture sector, according to latest Economic Survey of Pakistan, contributes 21
percent to total GDP of Pakistan. This means that agriculture is the backbone of
country’s economy and agriculture sector is dependent on water. Thus the water scarcity
results in severe economic distress to country’s economy.
5. According to a research study on water resources of Pakistan, approximately water
having economic values of $70 billion is being thrown into the sea every year due to
non-construction of water reservoirs. A water-starved country, which has the foreign
reserve of only $20 billion, can’t afford to throw water of mammoth economic value.

Minor Premise:
Pakistan is not only facing water scarcity but the safe drinking water is also a dream in many
urban areas. According to the recent report of UNICEF, 53,000 Pakistani children die of many
lethal diseases such as diarrhea after drinking contaminated water each year.
Analysis
The claim of the writer is quite strong because Pakistan has not updated her water storage
and supply methods. There is no construction of new dams in Pakistan since 1970s.
Administrative flaws, mismanagement and old methods of water regulations are leading to water
scarcity.
Article Name: Challenges to Democracy
Writer: Zahid Hussain
Newspaper: Dawn
Publishing Date: 23/05/18
Main Argument
Two successive democratic government has completed their tenure in Pakistan and transition from one
elected government to another now appears a reality, though there are still a few hurdles to cross
to achieve a strong democratic political process.
Supporting argument:
Major Premise:
1. Imbalance of power between military and civilian institutions and persistent
confrontation among various institutions weakening the democratic process of country.
2. The parliamentarians themselves are undermining the importance of parliament. Imran
khan has often gave derogatory remarks about the parliament. Country’s premier himself
seldom attends the sessions of parliament. The attitudes of country’s high office bearer
are undermining the importance of Parliament. Members and top political leaders alike
show little respect for legislative proceedings as attendance frequently falls way below
the 25pc mark leading to premature adjournments and even prorogation.
3. Parliamentarians hardly participate in debate, even on important national and foreign
policy issues thereby rendering the legislative body ineffective. This has also led to the
inability of the lawmakers to resolve political and institutional crises. Unsurprisingly, the
country failed to make a steady transition towards improved democracy.
4. With parliament and the civilian law-enforcement agencies having been rendered
ineffective by the elected leadership, weak governance has allowed the judiciary to
extend its role. The role of judiciary has been extended a lot. Under the article of 184/3
judiciary is intervening in the sphere of executive.
5. One of the factors obstructing the growth of a democratic culture and ethos has been the absence
of democracy within the political parties. Most have turned into family enterprises or revolve
around personalities.
6. There is no tradition of internal party debate on critical policy issues and it all depends on the
whims of the leaders. Party elections are a sham and conducted merely for the sake of fulfilling a
legal formality.

7. The challenge to democracy in Pakistan has worsened because there is a lack of crucially
required reforms. There has not been any substantive improvement in the fundamental
functioning of key democratic institutions. The failure of parliament in resolving issues
such as the Panama scandal and the inability of the government to take the lead in
formulating national security and foreign policies have further eroded civilian control.
.Analysis
The argument presented by the writer in his article is quite strong. Because all these issues
ranging from imbalance of power between institutions to lack of democratic norms within parties are
undermining the true spirit of democracy. True democracy can only be achieved if all the institutions
work under their prescribed limit in the Constitution.
 Population and security

POPULATION explosion, though missing from the country’s policy discourse, presents one of the most
serious threats to our national security.
There may not be a simple causal relationship between demography and security, but evidence shows that
high population growth is a major destabilising factor in the least developed countries. There are many
examples to show that tensions leading up to conflict may have been heightened by demographic
pressures.
One of the highest population growth rates and a huge youth bulge have created an extremely dangerous
situation for Pakistan. We could have used our demographic power to turn around the country’s economy,
but with little investment in education and slow economic growth, the youth bulge is fast becoming a
liability and serious threat to the country’s internal security.
The inability of the state to productively utilise a large young generation has already turned the country
into a breeding ground for violent extremism, and could cause further social dislocation and conflict.
This runaway population growth has created vast ranks of restless young men with few prospects and
little to lose. Their frustrated ambitions can be an explosive force. More troubling is that there is no
realisation about this lurking threat. A study conducted by Population Action International shows that
about 80 per cent of the world’s civil conflicts since the 1970s have occurred in countries with young,
fast-growing populations.
Pakistan is a stark example of that; thousands of people have been killed in militant and extremist
violence, earning the country the dubious distinction of being one of the world’s most violent places.
Indeed, there are multiple domestic and international reasons that are responsible for the rising violent
extremism in Pakistan. But it is not just religious fanaticism that drives young men to resort to violence. It
also has much to do with the failure of the state to turn this young population into productive citizens.
Pakistan is sitting on a potential demographic disaster.
Pakistan is sitting on a potential demographic disaster with more than 120 million of its population under
25 years of age. This high number of young people is the face of today’s Pakistan. This new generation is
also at the centre of an unresolved ideological struggle about what sort of country Pakistan should be.
With an extremely low literacy rate and bleak job opportunities, the future prospects of the young
generation are uncertain and dark.
Growing frustration among the youth makes them vulnerable to prejudices and extremism. The gravity of
the situation can be assessed by the fact that 32pc of our young generation is illiterate and the majority of
the others are school dropouts. Enrolment rates are the lowest in South Asia. Pakistan’s spending on
education is around 2pc of the GDP, about half that spent by India. The poor quality of education hardly
equips the youth to face the challenges of the globalised world they live in, further pushing them towards
isolation.
Furthermore, the widening social, cultural and economic divide has made the less advantaged youth
receptive to extremism and violence. It has created a mindset that facilitates a militant agenda. Many
studies have shown that there is a direct link between religious extremism and social and economic
marginalisation.
The instability resulting from severe demographic pressures has led to civil war in many countries.
Pakistan will not be too far away from such a situation if its present drift continues. In fact, we are already
in the midst of one. The growing alienation of young generations and their feelings towards the
government and state have been illustrated in some recent surveys. The youth’s despair is deep-seated in
the present conditions.
With little or no education, as well as the lack of economic opportunities, they have not much to look
forward to. Few are hopeful of getting jobs. The continuing downslide of the economy indicates that
things are not getting better. Pakistan’s population has doubled over the past few decades.
The 2017 population census has shown that Pakistan has moved up the ladder, becoming the fifth most
populous nation only behind India, China, the US and Indonesia. With a staggering growth rate of 2.4pc
per annum, the country’s population is around 207m. That marks an increase of more than 57pc since the
last population census in 1998, and is higher than what had been projected.
Pakistan needs an annual economic growth rate of at least 6pc to 7pc to absorb millions of people entering
the job market every year. The population of the unemployed has drastically risen with the economic
growth rate averaging around 3pc over the past decade, thus creating a dangerous situation
All this has left the country struggling to provide for a rapidly expanding populace. It is a disaster in the
making. What is most worrisome is that this population explosion and its implications have drawn little
attention from the political leadership.
Despite the gravity of the situation, the issue has hardly figured in the national discourse. The PTI
government that says it is committed to human development appears to have completely ignored the
challenge that presents the biggest threat to political stability and national security. Human development
is not possible without dealing with the problem of high population growth.
It is a nightmare scenario fast unfolding. Firm and decisive action is needed to contain the population
explosion before it is too late. The consequences of further delay will be disastrous. Economic and social
problems faced by the country cannot be dealt with effectively unless population growth is brought under
control. Other countries have done it, and it should not be difficult for us either. But what is needed is
political will and a clear policy.
It may be late but the situation can still be salvaged with the government taking the issue more seriously.
The exploding population bomb has put the country’s future in jeopardy. Is the government listening?
 Water crisis in Pak & its solutions

Abdul Ghani Chohan

AMONG all the looming challenges that Pakistan is facing, water crisis is the most critical problem of the
country. According to the world resource institute, the country is among the leading five that face
extremely high water scarcity and low access to safe drinking water and sanitation. The United Nations
Organization has categorized Pakistan amongst those few unfortunate countries where water shortage
destabilizes and jeopardises its existence in the next few decades. In Pakistan, quarter to third of
Pakistan’s population lacks access to safe drinking water. Both the urban and rural areas suffer from
water scarcity, water contamination and water-borne diseases.
The serious crisis of water has remained unheeded and even the political parties do not bother to make
this issue in their manifestos. When the water crisis is talked of, the managing and construction of dams
get politicized. However, beyond the construction of new dams, the already constructed dams are
mismanaged. The mega dams of Pakistan at Tarbela and Mangla are 40 years old and their storage
capacity is falling because of silting and sedimentation. They store only 30 days of average water demand
compared to 220 days for India. There are numerous reasons that have given rise to water scarcity like
lack of proper management of existing dams, the antediluvian system of canals and barrages,
mismanagement of water resources and policy flaws.
According to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, Pakistan may run dry if the prevalent
situation continues. Water is desperately needed for agriculture in rural areas. Moreover, Pakistan’s water
crisis is also glaringly apparent in its urban areas. Besides the administrative flaws, Pakistan’s all-time
enemy is all adding salt to sorrows. India has violated Indus Water Treaty many times by building dams
on western rivers. Its projects such as Bughlier and Kishenganga Dam on Chenab and Jhelum rivers may
eat up substantial portion of Pakistan’s share of water. In this regard, Pakistan has lost its case in
international court few days ago. Water crisis has badly affected the agriculture sector of Pakistan. The
agriculture sector, according to latest Economic Survey of Pakistan, contributes 21 percent to total GDP
of Pakistan.
Moreover, agriculture sector provides 47 percent employment to a total population of Pakistan. Similarly,
the majority of Pakistan’s export goods rely on agriculture i.e. 70 percent of the export goods are
agriculture products. This means that agriculture is the backbone of country’s economy and agriculture
sector is dependent on water. Thus the water scarcity results in severe economic distress to country’s
economy. Historically, the agriculture sector has played a very monumental role in making country’s
economy stabilized. This became possible due to uninterrupted water availability in the country.
According to a research study on water resources of Pakistan, approximately water having economic
values of $70 billion is being thrown into the sea every year due to non-construction of water reservoirs.
A water-starved country, which has the foreign reserve of only $20 billion, can’t afford to throw water of
mammoth economic value.
The politicians and analysts give credit to the policies of the then government. Few economists and policy
makers cite this in another way. Firstly the Indus Water Treaty was materialized in 1967 between arch-
rivals India and Pakistan that facilitated water availability. Secondly, tube wells were initiated to
overcome water deficit. Pakistan is not only facing water scarcity but the safe drinking water is also a
dream in many urban areas. According to the recent report of UNICEF, 53,000 Pakistani children die of
many lethal diseases such as diarrhea after drinking contaminated water each year. However, the
worsening water crisis needs to be resolved for economic stability and development. Far deeper changes
are required to mitigate the water deficiency.
For instance, Singapore follows the strategy of fours taps and Japan has invested heavily in water-saving
technology. Similarly, Pakistan has sufficient water around the year that needs to be reserved rather it is
left for spoilage and wastage. Many developing countries are adopting a strategy of water-pricing that
needs to be implemented in the country for better and efficient use of water. According to the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the development of lesser levelling technology and furrow
bed irrigation has resulted in saving 30 per cent of water and has led to increasing water productivity by
25 per cent in Punjab. Its scope needs to be widened across Pakistan to achieve water availability. Besides
this according to Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources Pakistan has lost water worth
$90billion since 2010 due to floods. This can be attenuated by constructing mega but undisputed dams so
that the country may get the track of development, progress and prosperity.
 Challenges to democracy

DEFYING the doubters, the National Assembly will complete its five-year term next week.
Notwithstanding the thunderbolts that frequently jolted the political process, the system has survived.
Transition from one elected government to another now appears a reality, though there are still a few
hurdles to cross.
It will indeed be a high point in the country’s rocky democratic journey. These five years like the
previous ones have also been extremely tumultuous, in which yet another elected prime minister has
bitten the dust. The unceremonious ouster of arguably the country’s most powerful elected figure
continues to cast long shadows over the fragile democratic political process.
Already barred from the electoral process for life, the exit may mark the end of Nawaz Sharif’s long yet
chequered political career, though not the end of the Sharif political dynasty. The elections would
certainly lead to a changing of the guard but can that bring any qualitative transformation in the system?
It remains to be seen whether the much-touted transition could change the existing power dynamics and
bring political stability to the country or would it result in further weakening of the elected bodies, with
non-elected institutions filling the void. The apprehensions about installation of a hybrid political system
with the military and judiciary becoming an informal part of the power troika are not without reason. In
fact the country is already experiencing this creeping phenomenon.
Instead of an improved quality of democracy, Pakistan has been sliding in the opposite direction.
It is not just imbalance of power and persistent confrontation among various institutions of the state that
has caused the disorder; the political leadership too is responsible for undermining the democratic
process. Parliament has been reduced to a chaotic debating club with the leadership showing no deference
to the elected house.
Members and top political leaders alike show little respect for legislative proceedings as attendance
frequently falls way below the 25pc mark leading to premature adjournments and even prorogation.
During the four years when he was in power, Sharif seldom attended parliamentary sessions. His slogan
“give respect to the vote” sounds hollow, given his utter contempt for the elected forums.
Some of the opposition parties too have been responsible for undermining the role of parliament. The PTI
boycotted the National Assembly for almost one year and Imran Khan never refrained from expressing
his disdain for the elected forum. He rarely appeared in the house, even after the party ended the boycott.
Moreover, when they did deign to be present in the assembly, parliamentarians would hardly participate
in debate, even on important national and foreign policy issues thereby rendering the legislative body
ineffective. This has also led to the inability of the lawmakers to resolve political and institutional crises.
Unsurprisingly, the country failed to make a steady transition towards improved democracy.
Despite the fact that Pakistan has entered the longest uninterrupted period of elected civilian rule in its
history, democracy appears to be weakening. While elected governments and political leadership ceded
space in policy spheres, the military has increased its overreach into areas outside of its professional
domain.
With parliament and the civilian law-enforcement agencies having been rendered ineffective by the
elected leadership, weak governance has allowed the judiciary to extend its role. Some judges too appear
to have succumbed to populist pressures when they give mostly unwarranted observations during the
course of judicial proceedings.
Lack of internal policy cohesion and focus on national issues has further weakened the democratic
process. One of the factors obstructing the growth of a democratic culture and ethos has been the absence
of democracy within the political parties. Most have turned into family enterprises or revolve around
personalities.
There is no tradition of internal party debate on critical policy issues and it all depends on the whims of
the leaders. Party elections are a sham and conducted merely for the sake of fulfilling a legal formality.
The swiftness with which politicians change their party affiliations overnight for the sake of expediency,
and the manner in which political parties woo so-called ‘electables’ illustrate the lack of principles in our
political culture.
Instead of a steady transition towards an improvement in the quality of democracy, Pakistan has been
sliding in the opposite direction more rapidly since 2013 when the PML-N returned to power and Nawaz
Sharif was elected as prime minister for a record third time.
According to a report by the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, while the
quality of democracy in 2013 scored its highest in four years at 54pc, the scores slid 10 percentage points
in 2014 to 44pc, rose a little to 50pc in 2015 and slipped again to 46pc at the end of 2016. The situation
has become worse in the past two years.
The challenge to democracy in Pakistan has worsened because there is a lack of crucially required
reforms. There has not been any substantive improvement in the fundamental functioning of key
democratic institutions. The failure of parliament in resolving issues such as the Panama scandal and the
inability of the government to take the lead in formulating national security and foreign policies have
further eroded civilian control.
The government’s failure in institutionalising a consultative decision-making process too has been a
major factor in the expansion of space for unelected institutions such as the military and judiciary.
Another aspect of the systemic failure of democratic governance is its inability to deliver on critical
economic, social and political issues. That has resulted in waning public faith in democracy.
These are the vital issues plaguing the country’s political process. The coming elections are critical to the
future of democracy in the country. Following this exercise, the new parliament and the government will
have to address these key issues in order to consolidate governance and deliver to the electorate. It is
apparent that democracy cannot function without the rule of law. There is a need for fundamental
structural reform to achieve these objectives. Will our leaders learn from their own shortcomings and take
the country to democratic stability?