Global Digital Development

Martin Hilbert (Dr., PhD)

How can we think about global
digital development?
Technology

is a TOOL
 Infrastructure
Generic services
Capabilities, skills,
culture

e-government

e-education
e-business

e-health
Source: Hilbert, Martin, ECLAC, 2002;
Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
What are the requisites?
 Infrastructure

Source: Hilbert, Martin, ECLAC, 2002;

Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
 www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat
Global ICT developments, 2001-2014
100
Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions
90
Individuals using the Internet 95.5
Europe
80
Fixed-telephone subscriptions ≈ 80 %
70 Active mobile-broadband subscriptions

Per 100 inhabitants

60 Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions

50
40.4
40
32.0
30

20 15.8
10 Africa
9.8 ≈ 10 %
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Note: * Estimate
Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database

Global Broadband cost:

half of countries < 5% of income
~10 countries = 200 % of income!
 www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat
Global ICT developments, 2001-2014
100
Akamai (Quarterly Report). Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions
The State of the Internet. 90
Individuals using the Internet 95.5
www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/ 80
Fixed-telephone subscriptions
70 Active mobile-broadband subscriptions

Per 100 inhabitants

60 Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions

50
40.4
40
32.0
30

20 15.8
10
9.8
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Note: * Estimate
Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
 Dimensions of the Digital Divide

Source: OSILAC, own calculations, based on: Mexico, INEGI 2004; Colombia, National survey of Culture 2002;
Argentina, Irol D’Alessio 2003; T&T, NECS 2003; Chile, University of Chile 2000, Dom.Rep., ONE 2005; Brazil, NIC 2005.
 Dimensions of the Digital Divide

Urban-Rural household per GEOGRAPHY

URBAN fixed URBAN mobile . RURAL fixed RURAL mobile

Argentina (11/01) Chile (04/02) Venezuela (10/01)

Source: OSILAC, own calculations, based on: Mexico, INEGI 2004; Colombia, National survey of Culture 2002;
Argentina, Irol D’Alessio 2003; T&T, NECS 2003; Chile, University of Chile 2000, Dom.Rep., ONE 2005; Brazil, NIC 2005.
 Dimensions of the Digital Divide

Urban-Rural household per GEOGRAPHY

URBAN fixed URBAN mobile . RURAL fixed RURAL mobile

Argentina (11/01) Chile (04/02) Venezuela (10/01)

Source: OSILAC, own calculations, based on: Mexico, INEGI 2004; Colombia, National survey of Culture 2002;
Argentina, Irol D’Alessio 2003; T&T, NECS 2003; Chile, University of Chile 2000, Dom.Rep., ONE 2005; Brazil, NIC 2005.
 Dimensions of the Digital Divide

Urban-Rural household per GEOGRAPHY

URBAN fixed URBAN mobile . RURAL fixed RURAL mobile

Argentina (11/01) Chile (04/02) Venezuela (10/01)

Source: OSILAC, own calculations, based on: Mexico, INEGI 2004; Colombia, National survey of Culture 2002;
Argentina, Irol D’Alessio 2003; T&T, NECS 2003; Chile, University of Chile 2000, Dom.Rep., ONE 2005; Brazil, NIC 2005.
 Infrastructure
Generic services

Source: Hilbert, Martin, ECLAC, 2002;

Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
http://internet-map.net/
www.alexa.com/topsites
Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html ;http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/11/14/obama-health-care-act/3536591/ ;
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-24/obamacare-website-costs-exceed-2-billion-study-finds.html
 Front-end (front-office) & back-end (back-office) iceberg

Source: Hilbert, M. (2005). Development Trends and Challenges For Local e-Governments: Evidence From Municipalities in Chile and Peru (Information
Society Programme No. 6, LC/W.31). Santiago: United Nations ECLAC. http://www.cepal.org/socinfo/publicaciones/xml/5/23115/municipalidades.pdf
 Infrastructure
Generic services
Human capabilities,
skills, culture

Source: Hilbert, Martin, ECLAC, 2002;

Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
 y-axis
Software & computer service employees
Ireland
Netherlands
Sweden
Finland Switzerland
2.0
Denmark
Italy Germany
as % of total employment

Japan UK
Canada France
1.5
Slovenia Czech Rep Austria Norway
Slovakia Hungary Spain
Bulgaria
1.0 Belgium
Costa Rica Poland
Portugual South Africa
India Greece New Zealand USA
0.5 Romania
Jordan Malaysia Russian Fed.
Brazil
Philippines
China Thailand
0.0Bangladesh Mexico
Uruguay
0 10 20 30 40 50
Software and computer service spending x-axis
as % of total ICT spending
 Netherlands
Sweden
Ratio of Software & computer service employees:
Ireland
Software & computer service employees
Finland Switzerland Finland = 1 : 50
2.0 Mexico = 1 : 500
Denmark
Italy Germany
as % of total employment

Japan UK
Canada France
1.5
Slovenia Czech Rep Austria Norway
Slovakia Hungary Spain
Bulgaria
1.0 Belgium
Costa Rica Poland
Portugual South Africa
India Greece New Zealand USA
0.5 Romania
Jordan Malaysia Russian Fed.
Brazil
Philippines
China Thailand
0.0Bangladesh Mexico
Uruguay
0 10 20 30 40 50
Software and computer service spending
as % of total ICT spending
 I keep saying that the sexy job in
the next 10 years will be
statisticians
Hal Varian, chief economist at Google

http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2014/02/r-salary-surveys.html;
http://www.networkworld.com/article/2290748/infrastructure-management/129700-12-jobs-getting-the-biggest-raises-in-2014.html ;
What are the opportunities?
 Infrastructure
Generic services
Capabilities, skills,
culture

e-government

e-education
e-business

e-health
Source: Hilbert, Martin, ECLAC, 2002;
Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
 e-government

e-business

Source: http://habarimazao.com ; Jensen, R. (2007). The Digital Provide Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3), 879–924.
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~dirkb/teach/pdf/j/jensen/2007-thedigitalprovide-slides.pdf
 THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
CRM SCM CRM CLIENT ERP: Enterprise
SUPPLIER BI Resource Planning
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_resource_planning

SCM CRM
CLIENT SCM: Supply Chain
Management
ERP http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_chain_management
SUPPLIER
CLIENT
CRM: Customer
SCM CRM B2B marketplace
Relationship
Management
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customer_relationship_management
SUPPLIER CLIENT
SCM CRM
BI: Business
Intelligence
CLIENT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_intelligence
SUPPLIER

CLIENT

SUPPLIER
CLIENT
 Digitizing markets

Source: Hendershott, T., Jones, C. M., & Menkveld, A. J. (2011). Does Algorithmic Trading Improve Liquidity? The Journal of Finance, 66(1), 1–33. Wikipedia
Commons; Eisen, M. (2011). Amazon’s $23,698,655.93 book about flies. http://www.michaeleisen.org/blog/?p=358
 Slavin, K. (2011). How algorithms shape our world.
http://youtu.be/ENWVRcMGDoU 10:45 – 14:10 min

For more see:

Steiner, C (2012)
Algorithms Are Taking Over The World
http://youtu.be/H_aLU-NOdHM

e-government

e-markets
 BI

CLIENT

SUPPLIER

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADgSTMla3EU Amazon robots CLIENT

CRM
SCM
SUPPLIER
CLIENT

SUPPLIER

ERP
Source: National Geographic. Car, Airbag, Money: Robots Make Cars. http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/videos/robots-make-cars/
e-government

Source: UN DESA e-government survey 2014

e-government
 www.recovery.gov

http://www.recovery.gov/arra/Transparency/RecoveryData/Pages/RecipientReportedDataMap.aspx
Some low income countries have more
advanced e-governments than their
peers with higher income!
 http://youtu.be/ASZJE15E0SY
10:45 – 12:25min

e-government
e-government

e-protest /
e-revolution
e-business

e-democracy
Hilbert, M. (04/2009). The Maturing Concept of e-democracy:
From e-Voting and Online Consultations, to Democratic Value
Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information
Technology & Politics (JITP), American Political Science
Association, 6, 2; 87-110. e-democracy

high

Semantic
Weighted
Web
preference
low voting

Argument
Social visuali-
large
Direct networking zation
yes/no (Web 2.0)
vote

Group
Trade-off
size
axis

Representative
small prose

low Depth of will expression high

 What is the common will of this group?
Ex: public spending on education and respective tax adjustment?

Business man: “I favor education spending, but preferably with

existing resources”.
Astronaut: “Education spending comes above all and corresponding
tax increases are adequate, as resources are no limitation”.
Nun: “I prefer to keep the Status Quo, but if to change, then favor
education”.
Clown: “The truth is I am indifferent regarding education, but most
importantly, change is needed, especially in the proportions of current
public spending”.
Princess: “Well, I am also indifferent regarding education, but as I am
sick, I am against discriminating against any other sort of public
spending such as health”.

Source: Hilbert, M. (2009). The Maturing Concept of E-Democracy: From E-Voting and Online Consultations to
Democratic Value Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 6(2), 87
 What is the common will of this group?

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

Preference Preference Preference Preference Preference

tax edu t e t e t e t e

tax edu t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

Source: Hilbert, M. (2009). The Maturing Concept of E-Democracy: From E-Voting and Online Consultations to
Democratic Value Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 6(2), 87
 “More democratic” results by digital
refinement of will expression
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Preference Preference Preference Preference Preference

tax edu t e t e t e t e

tax edu t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

Source: Hilbert, M. (2009). The Maturing Concept of E-Democracy: From E-Voting and Online Consultations to
Democratic Value Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 6(2), 87
 “More democratic” results by digital
refinement of will expression
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Preference Preference Preference Preference Preference

tax edu t e t e t e t e

tax edu t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

Source: Hilbert, M. (2009). The Maturing Concept of E-Democracy: From E-Voting and Online Consultations to
Democratic Value Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 6(2), 87
 “More democratic” results by digital
refinement of will expression
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Preference Preference Preference Preference Preference

tax edu t e t e t e t e

tax edu t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

t e t e t e t e t e

Source: Hilbert, M. (2009). The Maturing Concept of E-Democracy: From E-Voting and Online Consultations to
Democratic Value Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 6(2), 87
 Voting systems are information processing systems
…and therefore can be digitized…
Ballot Approval Ranked Rated

Runoff
Cumulative

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system
Hilbert, M. (04/2009). The Maturing Concept of e-democracy:
From e-Voting and Online Consultations, to Democratic Value
Out of Jumbled Online Chatter. Journal of Information
Technology & Politics (JITP), American Political Science
Association, 6, 2; 87-110. e-democracy

high

Semantic
Weighted
Web
preference
low voting

Argument
Social visuali-
large
Direct networking zation
yes/no (Web 2.0)
vote

Group
Trade-off
size
axis

Representative
small prose

low Depth of will expression high

 e-government

e-education
e-business

e-health
Schools Students
Mexico 16,000 >1,000,000
Costa Rica 50 2,500
El salvador 96 5,057
Guatemala 384 20,564
Honduras 37 3,118
Panama 5 367
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_open_online_course , http://www.bbc.com/news/education-23069542
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AT2q17EhGBM
(min 2:00-6:50)

Big Health Care Budget items:

 Patients don't follow their prescriptions
U.S. ≈ $300 billion/year
 Unnecessary visits to the doctor
U.S. ≈ $125 billion/year

e-business

e-health
 Unhealthy diets, lack of exercise
U.S. ≈ $100 billion/year
 Patients don't give doctors enough information
U.S. ≈ $40 billion/year
 Missing critical warning signs
U.S. ≈ $7 billion/year

Source: http://www.inc.com/magazine/201402/david-freedman/obamacare-health-technology-startups.html
 NSA cyber-warfare strategy in different phases:
 surveillance of the Internet
: "the next major  detect vulnerabilities
conflict will start  “stealthy implants”
 permanent accesses to "control/destroy critical systems &
in cyberspace." networks at will“. Critical infrastructure: energy, communications,
transportation, etc.
 … => "real time controlled escalation… helping the agency
achieve the … objective of Global Network Dominance…”

e-business
e-war
Source: Appelbaum, et al. (2015). New Snowden Docs Indicate Scope of NSA Preparations for Cyber Battle. Spiegel Online.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/new-snowden-docs-indicate-scope-of-nsa-preparations-for-cyber-battle-a-1013409.html
 e-government

e-intelligence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite
 1996/
1997 Algorithmification:
Human-Machine merger

Sean Gourley (2012)

Big Data and the Rise of Augmented Intelligence
http://youtu.be/mKZCa_ejbfg 0:00 – 4:03 min

Kasparov (2011):
“Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a
strong computer alone
and, more remarkably, superior to a
strong human + machine + inferior process”.
Source: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/feb/11/the-chess-master-and-the-computer/
What to do about it?
 Technological determinism vs. outcome

Social construction of technology tech outcome

GOOD
BAD

outcome

Technology is neither good nor

nor is it neutral (!)

Think about the hammer:

Source: Kranzberg, M. (1986). Technology and History: “Kranzberg’s Laws.” Technology and Culture, 27(3), 544. http://mashable.com/2013/03/09/twitter-revolution/
Center for the Digital Future. (2014). www.digitalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014-Digital-Future-Report.pdf
 Infrastructure
Generic services
Capabilities, skills,
culture

e-government

e-education
e-business

e-health

Source: Hilbert, Martin, ECLAC, 2002;

Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
 16 % ICT spending
Infrastructure of the Chilean
Generic services 52 % government
Capabilities, skills, in 2003
culture 32 %

Education

Defense
Finance

Justice
16% 15% 14% 12%
Source: DIRPES Chile, 2005, GASTO EN GOBIERNO ELECTRÓNICO AÑO 2003
Hilbert, M. (2012). Towards a Conceptual Framework for ICT for Development: Lessons Learned from the Latin American “Cube Framework.” ITID, 8(4), 243–259.
 Infrastructure
Generic Services
Regulation

affects all
Generic Services e-sectors

Source: White House. (2014). Big Data and Privacy; http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/pcast_big_data_and_privacy_-_may_2014.pdf

 Privacy & data sharing

Source: Acquisti, A., Brandimarte, L., & Loewenstein, G. (2015). Privacy and human behavior in
the age of information. Science, 347(6221), 509–514. http://mattmckeon.com/facebook-privacy/
 Infrastructure
Generic Services
Regulation

affects all
Generic Services e-sectors

“Policy attention should

focus more on the actual
uses of big data and less
on its collection and
analysis…”

Source: White House. (2014). Big Data and Privacy; http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/pcast_big_data_and_privacy_-_may_2014.pdf