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Polyamide Intermediates – World Market Overview

Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015


Seoul, 8 May 2015

(Emma) Liu Xiang


APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY versus DEMAND
1,000 Metric Tons

7,500

7,000
If no new
plants
6,500 2018-2020

6,000

5,500 Capability to
produce
5,000
Forecast
4,500 Growth 2.9%
pa
4,000

3,500 Growth 2.7% pa


3,000 Annual Caprolactam
Growth 3.4% Growth 3.0% Consumption
2,500
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY 2011 – 2017
1,000 Metric Tons per Year
China
1,200
Additions
1,000 2017
Additions
Shijiazhuang 2015-2016
800
Fujian
China Closures
2013-2015
600 Baling
China Additions
2014
400 Hengyi Additions
2013
200 Additions
2012
0 2011

-200
Lanxess

Shandong Hongye
Poland

Others

Zhejiang Juhua

Fujian Tianchen
DSM
BASF

CPDC

Sumitomo

Domo
Honeywell

C.I.S

Sinopec

Shandong Luxi

Shanxi Yangmei
Hubei Sanning

Hebei Xuyang

Fujian Liheng
Ube

Capro Corp

India

Shanxi Lanhua
Bohui

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 DEMAND BY REGION
1,000 Metric Tons

3,000 PA6 Engineering


Resin
2,500
BCF & Staple

2,000 High Ten Yarn

1,500 Textile Filament

1,000

500

0
2014
2020

2014
2020

2014
2020

2014
2020

2014
2020

2014
2020

2014
2020

2014
2020
North South West East ME & S & SE NE China
America America Europe Europe Africa Asia Asia

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE
2004-2014
2014
1,000 Metric Tons
2004
450

Taiwan & S Korea


350 2004

ME & Africa

S & SE Asia
250 2005
150 2006

China
50 2007

Japan
-50
N America

S America

W Europe

E Europe
2008
-150 2009
-250 2010
-350
2011
-450
2012
-550
2013
-650
2014 est
-750

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE
Post 2014 Trends
2014
1,000 Metric Tons
2004
450

Taiwan & S Korea


350 2004

ME & Africa

S & SE Asia
250 2005
150 2006

China
50 2007

Japan
-50
N America

S America

W Europe

E Europe
2008
-150 2009
-250 2010
-350
2011
-450
Forecast Trend to 2020 2012
-550
2013
-650
2014 est
-750

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
ASIAN CAPROLACTAM IMPORT CONTRACT PRICE
vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
Asian Caprolactam Import Contract $/ton
4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500
1999-2008
2,000 2009
2010
1,500
2011
1,000 2012
2013
500
2014
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl


APIC 2015
ASIAN 0.865PTA PRICE + 0.35MEG PRICE
vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
Asian 0.865 PTA + 0.35 MEG $/ton
3,500

1999-2008
3,000
2009
2010
2,500
2011
2012
2,000
2013

1,500 2014

1,000

500

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl


APIC 2015
ASIAN 0.865PTA + 0.35MEG PRICE TREND &
CAPROLACTAM PRICE TREND vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
$/ton 2015?

3,500

3,000
Caprolactam
2,500

2,000 PTA +
MEG
1,500

1,000

500

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
APIC 2015
AVERAGE PET RESIN AND PA6 POLYMER COSTS
vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
2015?
$/ton
3,500

PA6
3,000

2,500
PET
2,000

1,500

1,000
Asia Cotton Price
(May-Dec 2014)
500

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
APIC 2015
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST
ON CRUDE OIL PRICE
Fixed costs of Energy related costs
$/ton Caprolactam supplying plants (steam, ammonia, etc.)
Cost of Production
4,000
4,000 in Asia
3 4
9
3,500
3,500 10
Cats & 8 5
1 2 7
6 2 3 Fixed costs of
Chemicals 12 11
3,000
3,000 6
5 11
1 5 4 caprolactam plant
10
12 10
Packing, 8 9
2 7 4 11
2,500
2,500 Delivery 13
9
loading 9
8
12
6 12
8
7
shipping 7 11
2,000
2,000 5
10 Energy
6
4 dependant
3
1,500
1,500 costs
2 1
1,000 Cyclohexane 2009
1,000
2010
500
2011

0 2012
0 10 20
20 30
30 40
40 50
50 60
60 70
70 80 90
80 90 100
100 110
110 120
120 130
130 140
140 150
150
Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST
CRUDE OIL PRICE
Fixed costs of Energy related costs
$/ton Caprolactam supplying plants (steam, ammonia, etc.) Cost of Production
4,000 in Asia

3,500
Cats &
Chemicals Fixed costs of
3,000 caprolactam plant
3
Packing, 64 2
2,500 Delivery 5 19
loading 7 8
10
shipping 12
11
2,000 Energy
dependant
1,500 costs

1,000 Cyclohexane
2013

500 2014

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Crude Oil Price $/bbl


Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
TIGHTNESS INDEX

World Capacity World Tightness


Utilisation Rate Markets Index
96.0% Very Tight 1.4

93.7% Tight 1.2

90.0% Balanced 1

84.0% Loose 0.8

75.0% Over-supplied 0.6


(Sloppy)

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
TIGHTNESS INDEX

For a given year:


Capability
World Tightness Index = log10
Capability - Consumption

Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity less Capacity off line*

* Due to unscheduled stoppages, not scheduled maintenance turnarounds

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM PRICE HISTORY - ASIA
Tightness Index
1.6

1.5
VERY H2 2009
TIGHT 1.4
H1 2010
1.3
TIGHT
1.2 H2 2010

1.1 H1 2011
BALANCED
1.0
H2 2011
0.9
LOOSE
H1 2012
0.8

0.7 H2 2012
OVER-
SUPPLIED 0.6 2013
(SLOPPY)
0.5
2014
0.4

0.3

0.2
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM PRICE SCENARIOS – ASIA NOV 2014
Tightness Index November 2014
1.6

1.5

VERY TIGHT 1.4

1.3

TIGHT 1.2

1.1
BALANCED 1.0

0.9
LOOSE 0.8

0.7

OVER SUPPLIED 0.6


(SLOPPY)
0.5

0.4
0.3

0.2
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
THE PA66 SUPPLY CHAIN

Butadiene Hydrocyanation

HCN by-product
H2
Alternatives Adiponitrile HMDA
HCN Andrussov
+

Adipic acid

Acrylonitrile Electro Hydro Dimerisation

AH Salt

PA66
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
GLOBAL ADIPONITRILE CAPACITY

2009 2014 Invista 2019 Invista China


15.8%
France
Invista 13.2%
Invista
Invista Invista France Runxing
France
Victoria Victoria 16.7% 5.3%
16.7%
26.8% 26.8% Invista
Invista Invista Invista
Orange Orange Victoria Orange
17.0% 17.0% 21.1% 13.4%
Asahi Asahi
Rhodia Rhodia
2.7% Ascend 2.7% Ascend Ascend
16.7% 16.7% Rhodia
20.1% 20.1% 15.8%
13.2%
Asahi
2.2%

1,240/1,495 ktpa 1,495 ktpa 1,895 ktpa

77% 77%
23%

24% 23%
60% 17%

Technology Hydrocyanation Acrylonitrile EHD


Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs DEMAND
1,000 Metric Tons
2,000
BASF closes 116 ktpa
1,900 at Wilton, UK Forecast No new plants
1,800 Growth 3.7% 2015-2018
1,700 Capability to produce
= 95% capacity
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100 Annual
Invista’s 254 ktpa unit at Adiponitrile
1,000 Growth 3.1% Orange, USA out of action Consumption
900
800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND

1,000 Metric Tons


4,500

4,000

3,500
Forecast
Growth 2.7%
Capability to Produce
3,000

2,500 Adipic Acid


Invista closes 450 ktpa Consumption
at Wilton & Maitland,
rebuilds Orange
2,000
Growth 4.0%

1,500
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE

1,000 Metric Tons

3,500

PA66 Resin
3,000
Staple

2,500 High Ten Yarn

Bulked Carpet
2,000
Growth 2012 - 2020 Textile Fibre

1,500 3.9%

1,000
2.4%

500
1.9%
1.7%
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 SUPPLY & DEMAND

1,000 Metric Tons

800
Forecast
Growth 9% PA66
700 Capacity

600 PA66 Net Import


2006-2014 Growth 8%
500 PA66Product
ion
400

300

200

100

0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 DEMAND & SUPPLY 2014

End-Use Demand Supply by Producer


Guorui Huafon Huayang
6% 2%
Textile 2% Invista
Filament 16%
High
3%
Tenacity Ascend
Filament 5%
28%
Rhodia
4%
Engineering Shenma
Plastics 43%
52% Airbag
DuPont
5% 8%

Staple
4% Asahi/Tora
y
Cable Tie 4%
Radici
8% Others Nilit
1%
4% 4%

Consumption 562,000 Tons Supply 580,000 Tons

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem & China Customs


APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS

• Most of the world growth for caprolactam will take place in


China, due to:
 Dominance in world production of PA6 textile filament
 Displacement of imports of caprolactam and PA6 polymer
• Massive caprolactam capacity additions in China have created
overcapacity and have reduced cash margins to zero or
negative. The expansion enthusiasm slow down this year due to
poor margins.
• Some plants have been forced to close in high energy cost
regions, more may follow
• The fall in crude oil prices will improve the competitivity of
polyamide versus polyester

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS

• Steady growth on the global polyamide 66 demand, but stronger


growth is expected to occur in China.
• With Shandong Runxing new ADN plant and Invista’s new
HMDA plant to come on stream in China, Increased availability
of raw material would help the development of polyamide 66
industry in China.
• New polyamide 66 polyamide capacity has been announced by
Huafon Group (40 ktpa mid-2015), Invista (100 ktpa, early
2016), Henan Shenma (40ktpa, 2016).
• Besides existing polyamide 66 polymer players, some adipic acid
producers also showed interest of investing polyamide 66
polymer plant to absorb over-supplied adipic acid capacity.

Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


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