Course Topic Type Submission Date

Business Statistics Basic Probability Assignments January 24, 2019

1. Consider the following contingency table:

𝐵𝐵 𝐵𝐵′
𝐴𝐴 10 20
𝐴𝐴′ 20 40

What is the probability of event

1

a. 𝐴𝐴?
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b. 𝐴𝐴’?
c. 𝐴𝐴 and 𝐵𝐵?
d. 𝐴𝐴 or 𝐵𝐵?
SOLUTION:

𝑩𝑩 𝑩𝑩′ TOTAL
𝑨𝑨 10 20 30
𝑨𝑨′ 20 40 60
TOTAL 30 60 90

𝑛𝑛(𝑆𝑆) = 90, 𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴) = 30, 𝑛𝑛(𝐵𝐵) = 30, 𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴′ ) = 60, 𝑛𝑛(𝐵𝐵′ ) = 60

𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 10, 𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵′ ) = 20, 𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 20, 𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵𝐵′ ) = 40
a. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)?
𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴) 30 1
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = = =
𝑛𝑛(𝑆𝑆) 90 3
b. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′ )?
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)
1
=1−
3
2
=
3
c. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)?
𝑛𝑛(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) 10 1
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = = =
𝑛𝑛(𝑆𝑆) 90 9
d. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵)?
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) − 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
1 𝑛𝑛(𝐵𝐵) 1
= + −
3 𝑛𝑛(𝑆𝑆) 9
1 30 1
= + −
3 90 9
1 1 1
= + −
3 3 9
5
=
9

2. Do people of different age groups differ in their response to email messages? A survey
by the Center for the Digital Future of the University of Southern California (data
extracted from A. Mindlin, “Older E-mail Users Favor Fast Replies,” The New York Times,
July 14, 2008, p. B3) reported that 70.7% of users over 70 years of age believe that email
messages should be answered quickly, as compared to 53.6% of users 12 to 50 years old.
Suppose that the survey was based on 1,000 users over 70 years of age and 1 ,000 users
12 to 50 years old. The following table summarizes the results:
Course Topic Type Submission Date
Business Statistics Basic Probability Assignments January 24, 2019

AGE OF RESPONDENTS
ANSWER QUICKLY 12-50 Over 70 Total
Yes 536 707 1,243
No 464 293 757
Total 1,000 1,000 2,000
2

a. Give an example of a simple event.

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b. Give an example of a joint event.

Referring to the contingency table above, if a respondent is selected at random. What is

the probability that
c. He or she answers quickly?
d. He or she is over 70 years old?
SOLUTION:
a. Example of a simple event (pilih satu jawaban aja)
- Users over 70 years of age
- Users 12 to 50 years’ old
- Users who answers quickly
- Users who are not answer quickly
b. Example of a joint event (pilih satu jawaban aja)
- Users over 70 years of age and answer quickly
- Users 12 to 50 years old and answer quickly
- Users over 70 years of age and not answer quickly
- Users 12 to 50 years old and not answer quickly
1243
c. 𝑃𝑃(Answer quickly) = = 0.6215
2000
The probability that the respondent answer quickly is 0.6215
1000
d. 𝑃𝑃(Over 70 years old) = = 0.5
2000
The probability that the respondent is over 70 years old is 0.5

3. Which meal are people most likely to order at a drive-through? A survey was conducted
in 2009, but the sample size was not reported. Suppose the results, based on a sample
of 100 males and 100 females, were as follow:

GENDER
MEAL Male Female Total
Breakfast 18 10 28
Lunch 47 52 99
Dinner 29 29 58
Snack/beverage 6 9 15
Total 100 100 200

If a respondent is selected at random, what is the probability that he or she

a. Prefers ordering lunch at the drive-through?
b. Prefers ordering breakfast or lunch at the drive-through?
c. Is a male or prefers ordering dinner at the drive-through?
SOLUTION:
Course Topic Type Submission Date
Business Statistics Basic Probability Assignments January 24, 2019

99
a. 𝑃𝑃(Lunch) = = 0.4950
200
The probability that respondent prefers ordering lunch at the drive-through is
0.4950
b. 𝑃𝑃(Breakfast 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 Lunch) = 𝑃𝑃(Breakfast) + 𝑃𝑃(Lunch)
28 99
= +
200 200
127
=
3

200
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= 0.6350
The probability that respondent prefers ordering breakfast or lunch at the drive-
through is 0.6350
c. 𝑃𝑃(Male 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 Dinner) = 𝑃𝑃(Male) + 𝑃𝑃(Dinner) − 𝑃𝑃(Male 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 Dinner)
100 58 29
= + −
200 200 200
129
=
200
= 0.6450
The probability that respondent is a male or prefers ordering dinner at the drive-
through is 0.6450

4. A survey of ,085 adults asked “Do you enjoy shopping for clothing for yourself.” The
results (data extracted from “Split decision on clothes shopping.” USA Today, January 28,
2011, p. 1B) indicated that 51% of the females enjoyed shopping for clothing for
themselves as compared to 44% of the males. The sample sizes of males and females
were not provided. Suppose the results were as shown in the following table:

ENJOYS SHOPPING GENDER

FOR CLOTHING Male Female Total
Yes 238 276 514
No 304 267 571
Total 542 543 1,085

a. Suppose that the respondent chosen is a female. What is the probability that she
does not enjoy shopping for clothing?
b. Suppose that the respondent chosen enjoys shopping for clothing. What is the
probability that the individual is a male?
c. Are enjoying shopping for clothing and the gender of the individual independent?
Explain.
SOLUTION:
a. 𝑃𝑃(No | Female)?
𝑃𝑃(No 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 Female)
𝑃𝑃(No | Female) =
𝑃𝑃(Female)
267
=
543
= 0.4917
The probability that she does not enjoy shopping for clothing given that the
respondent is female is 0.5083
b. 𝑃𝑃(Male | Yes)?
Course Topic Type Submission Date
Business Statistics Basic Probability Assignments January 24, 2019

𝑃𝑃(Male 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 Yes)

𝑃𝑃(Male | Yes) =
𝑃𝑃(Yes)
238
=
514
= 0.4630
The probability that the individual is a male given that the respondent chosen enjoys
shopping for clothing is 0.4630
238 542
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c. 𝑃𝑃(Male | Yes) = = 0.4630; 𝑃𝑃(Male) = = 0.4995

514 1085
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Because 𝑃𝑃(Male | Yes) ≠ 𝑃𝑃(Male), enjoying shopping and the gender of individual
is not independent.

5. An advertising executive is studying television viewing habits of married men and

women during prime-time hours. Based on pas viewing records, the executive has
determined that during prime time, husbands are watching television 60% of the time.
When the husband is watching television, 40% of the time the wife is also watching.
When the husband is not watching television, 30% of the time the wife is watching
television.
a. Find the probability that if the wife is watching television, the husband is also
watching television.
b. Find the probability that the wife is watching television during prime time.
SOLUTION:
Let H represent event of husband is watching television during prime time and W event
of wife is watching television during prime time.
𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻) = 0.6
𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻) = 0.4
𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻′) = 0.3
The tree diagram,

a. 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻 | 𝑊𝑊)?
𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻)
𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻 | 𝑊𝑊) =
𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻′)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻′)
(0.4)(0.6)
=
(0.4)(0.6) + (0.3)(0.4)
0.24
=
0.24 + 0.12
2
=
3
Then probability that if the wife is watching television, the husband is also watching
television is 2�3.
Course Topic Type Submission Date
Business Statistics Basic Probability Assignments January 24, 2019

b. 𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊)?
𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑊𝑊 | 𝐻𝐻′)𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻′)
= (0.4)(0.6) + (0.3)(0.4)
= 0.24 + 0.12
= 0.36
Then the probability that the wife is watching television during prime time is
0.36
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