Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
October 2017
Real Estate in the U.S. - From 2000 to 2006, the Case-Shiller national home price index which measures prices on home sales in U.S. went up on
almost 84% and the over the next 5 years, shrunk by a quarter. Since then it has once again started to rise with an improvement in economic
sentiment.
Crude Oil - Post the financial crisis, the availability of cheap money and the premise that the Chinese economy would continue to guzzle fuel in large
amounts resulted in oil reaching of high of USD 140, post which a correction resulted in prices dropping all the way to USD 30 before recovering to
current levels of USD 50.
Indian Equities - Infrastructure and Global Liquidity-driven bull cycle – From 2003 – 2008, Indian Equities witnessed the bull cycle as the
infrastructure sector boomed. The domestic infra story coupled with global liquidity led to India and most global markets scaling to new highs.
During this period, Equity markets delivered 50% p.a. returns.
The last few years’ return of the Indian Equity market have been facing a bearish phase:
Macro Factors: Huge improvement in macro economic indicators like falling inflation and interest rates, shrinking fiscal & current a/c deficit as
mentioned below along with implementation of GST will lead to very conducive environment for a sustainable bull market cycle.
Corporate Earnings: Corporate earnings of Nifty 50 companies after ranging in single digit negative earnings growth zone over the last 2 years have
recently started showing signs of improvement; for FY 16 – 17, the Nifty basket reported an EPS growth of 9% for the full year vis-à-vis the same period
a year back as can be seen in the table below:
Liquidity: FIIs and DIIs are 2 key participants in equity markets. From an international perspective, no other large emerging
economy has better investment characteristics and political stability than India. FIIs have been net buyers so far in this calendar
year and have bought net INR 34,500Cr worth of Indian Equity during Jan – Sep ‘17. Domestic Liquidity has emerged strongly with
retail investors investing close to INR 5000 Cr, EPFO investing INR 1900 Cr and NPS investing INR 400 Cr on a monthly basis, thus
bringing in INR 7500 Cr of sticky long term money every month into the markets.
The ‘TINA’ Factor: Falling interest rates are making investments in Debt more and more unattractive; restriction on cash have
resulted in Gold losing its attractiveness and Real Estate is under tremendous pressure due to oversupply. This has led to huge
interest in Equity markets with domestic investors buying a record INR 18,000 Cr of Equity each month in Aug ’17 and Sep’ 17
resp., taking the average monthly purchase to INR 13,000 Cr per month in the last 6 months, INR 5000 Cr of which is sticky SIP
money. For the period Jan – Aug ’17, Domestic investors have invested ~INR 90,000 Cr in Equities.
5
Debt Outlook
The Month That Went By:
Yields across maturity spectrum hardened by about 10 basis points during Sep’17. Continued strong primary debt issuance, tightening of liquidity
situation and modest net buys by both banks and foreign portfolio investors coupled with upward trajectory of retail inflation contributed to this.
Concerns on fiscal slippage due to front-loading of central government spending and likely increase in state deficits to finance populist measures
such as farmers’ loan waiver also weighing on the market. Debt market yields have generally hardened after Nov’16 and peaked around May’17.
Softer inflation and the anticipation of rate cut by RBI (released in Aug’17) led to some softening thereafter although the trend has reversed more
recently.
Overall debt market is currently in a delicate balance with movement of yield in a narrow band over the last three months. The time spread between
call money rate and benchmark 10 year bond narrowed considerably around Jul’17 mainly due to softening of money market rates which did not get
transmitted to the debt market. In the near-term, we feel that most negatives are priced in. consequent, surprise if any is likely to lead to softening
of longer-term yield rates.
Debt is an integral part of all client portfolios, and its objective is to bring in stable and predictable returns across market and interest rate cycles,
thus minimizing the overall portfolio volatility. Investors can participate in Debt by investing in either duration-based funds i.e. funds that aim to
benefit from interest rate cycle, or by investing in accrual based funds that aim to benefit from high coupon income.
While the monetary cycle turning neutral, further fall in yield is limited. Secondly, the credit environment is improving with the number of upgrades
increasing the number of downgrades as per various rating agencies.
Thirdly, with the economy expanding, credit requirement of corporates and their access to capital markets (i.e. Mutual Funds directly) has been
gradually increasing, providing enough investment opportunities in the accrual space.
We would thus recommend that one stick to accrual debt funds where the predictability of returns is better than that of duration funds.
6
Recommended Asset Allocation
Conservative Moderately Conservative
Risk Profile Equity Debt
Conservative 0% 100% 20%
Moderately Conservative 20% 80%
Balanced 50% 50% 100% 80%
Moderately Aggressive 60% 40%
Aggressive 80% 20%
Debt Equity Debt
Equity 50% Debt 50% Equity 60% Debt 40% Equity 80% Debt 20%
For Internal Consumption only
7
Mutual Fund Recommendation
Tax efficient, Ease of monitoring, Superior long term returns, professionally managed
Diversified Large & Mid Cap Equity Mutual Funds.
ABSOLUTE
OUTPERFORMANCE
95.0 OF 64%
70.7
44.9
45.0 30.4 23.1 22.9
14.7 13.7
-5.0
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years
AR Equity Recommendation Nifty
Our recommended fund basket has outperformed nifty by 6.1% p.a. over a 3 year period & 9.4% p.a. over a 4 year period..
Our recommended fund basket has delivered an absolute alpha of 64% over nifty in the last 4 years.
Due to the superior risk management of the fund managers , recommended basket has captured only 74% of the downside and
118% of the upside of Nifty, over a 4 year period.
Large-Cap
Birla Sun Life Equity 14.82 4.53 14.13 -5.87 15.18 9.77 6.12 12.69 77.60 121.59 Q1
ICICI Pru Top 100 9.25 1.65 13.27 -2.51 8.03 5.11 4.85 7.76 90.44 108.61 Q2
Kotak Select Focus 13.97 5.24 14.95 -5.28 8.28 11.85 5.00 14.61 79.31 131.40 Q1
Mirae Asset India Opp 12.17 5.98 14.09 -4.12 7.55 10.09 4.01 12.77 78.73 123.01 Q1
Reliance Top 200 8.40 6.06 14.91 -5.69 8.24 7.06 5.12 9.32 90.73 119.34 Q2
Small/Mid-Cap
Canara Robeco Emerging Eq 18.58 7.27 21.44 -8.40 11.19 15.79 6.48 17.66 101.87 123.08 Q1
HDFC Mid-Cap Opp 17.52 3.90 17.10 -6.35 12.88 13.81 4.34 17.65 86.74 105.51 Q1
Kotak Emerging Equity 19.66 3.19 19.31 -6.35 8.90 17.67 5.49 21.96 78.27 113.71 Q1
Established in 1966 and part of the TVS group , Sundram Fasteners limited (SFL) is today
the largest manufacturer and exporter of high tensile fasteners. The company
manufactures automotive components such as high tensile fasteners, radiator caps,
powder metal parts, pumps and engine components. It has a global manufacturing
presence that spans India, China, United Kingdom and Malaysia. SFL caters to auto
OEMs in the two-wheeler, four-wheeler, farm equipment and commercial vehicle
segments. It has an extensive clientele with major industry leaders like Ashok
Leyland, M&M, Tata Motors, Daimler, Siemens etc. Company is moving from low margin
fasteners business to high margin business. SFL is significantly adding capacity and has
incurred Rs. 200 crore capital expenditure in FY17. Management noted that most of the
Sundram Fasteners capacity investment were incurred to dovetail production plans to those of key
customers. India is becoming a hub for auto components manufacturing with major
Limited
1 04-Sep-17 535 global auto companies like Volkswagen, Suzuki, General Motors, Mercedes, etc. setting
(SUNDRMFAST) up base in India. The Indian Auto Components industry to reach a size of US $100 billion
by FY2020 backed by strong exports ranging between US$ 80- US$ 100 billion by 2026,
from the current US$ 11.2 billion. This indicates huge scope for the auto components
industry and SFL being one of the leading manufacturers of fasteners will be in a good
position to encash on this burgeoning opportunity. The company is a good bet to ride
on, given the upturn in domestic auto sales. At a CMP of Rs. 410, SFL is trading at a P/E
multiple of 21.6x its FY18E EPS and 18.5x its FY19E EPS, which is at a discount to the
peer average of 32x. Anticipating the future growth potential of the Auto component
industry and the positioning of SFL as a multi-product and multi-location company, we
feel that it has huge growth potential and thus we initiate “BUY” with target price of
Rs.535 per share.
Aarti Industries Ltd. (AIL) is one of the most competitive and a fully integrated Benzene derivatives
specialty chemicals company. AIL has been undergoing capacity expansion and setting up new greenfield
facility for Toulene based derivatives product. The company has already completed expansion of its
Chloro Benzene and PDA chain and its expected to improve utilisation in next few quarters. AIL has also
Aarti Industries Ltd. completed its Toulene project and is expected to start commercial operations in Q2-FY18. With these
2 21-Sep-17 1084 capacity expansion starting operations gradually in FY-18 onwards, AIL would be positioning itself in a
(AIL)
more margin accretive specialty chemicals segment targeting existing customer base. We expect AIL to
witness higher growth and subsequently improved margins in medium term. We re-iterate our coverage
on Aarti Industries Limited (AIL) with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs.1,084 per share.
BLS International Services Ltd., today has earned itself an impeccable reputation for setting benchmarks
in its domain of expertise. It is one of the world’s largest visa, passport and consular outsourcing services
provider for governments and their diplomatic missions worldwide. The company manages visa and
passport issuance related administrative and non-judgmental tasks for its client governments, which
enables their clients to focus on the important judgmental part of the visa issuance. BLS has rapidly
scaled up its operations across 58 nations and 29 client governments. In 2016, BLS expanded its business
operations to provide front-end and citizen services to State Governments in India to facilitate the
realization of the goal of transparent and accountable e-governance system. In June’17, BLS
International won the Citizen Services contract from the Embassy of Afghanistan worth USD 5mn for the
five Gulf countries. BLS would need to open Citizen Service Centres (CSC) across the five Gulf countries
BLS Internation
3 28-Sep-17 310 including UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar for the nationals of Afghanistan. Growth in the visa
Services Limited (BLS) business is expected to be led by strong realizations from Spain (led by higher VAS), contribution from
the Afghanistan passport contract from 2Q, and new contract wins. BLS has processed over 20 million
applications to date with an approximately 18 million applications estimated to be processed during the
year FY2017- 18E. In FY2017-18E, several foreign mission tenders are likely to be submitted and BLS is
prequalified to bid for these global tenders in the pipeline. Backed by the years of industry experience,
strong brand positioning, competitive advantage and the niche nature of the industry, BLS is well
equipped to capitalize on the potential of this magnitude. At CMP the stock is trading at 22x FY18E and
19.7x FY19E. We initiate our coverage on BLS International ltd. with “BUY” recommendation and target
price of `310 per share.
HBL Power Systems HBL Power Systems Ltd. (HBLPOWER) Book Profit, given at 44 is trading near to its TARGET OF
1 13-Jul-17 68
Ltd. 68. THOSE HOLDING can Book Profit at around 70 levels, a profit of 57%.
20
Value Picks – OPEN position as on 29th Sep 2017
CMP/ Current Nifty
Profit / Loss Nifty 500 Level on Diff (%) Nifty 500
Sr.No. Scrips Name Entry Date Entry Price Target Price EXIT Exit Date 500 level/
(%) Entry Date Level
RATE Booked Rate
1 RALLIS INDIA 22-Jul-14 215 325 208 OPEN (3) 6251 8600 38
2 RALLIS INDIA 16-Oct-14 244 325 208 OPEN (15) 6225 8600 38
3 TALWALKAR BETTER VALUE 10-Mar-15 331 446 271 OPEN (18) 7142 8600 20
4 BAJAJ CORP 06-May-15 442 573 398 OPEN (10) 6681 8600 29
5 ASHOK LEYLAND 05-Nov-15 92 130 123 OPEN 34 6662 8600 29
6 ASTRA MICROWAVE PRODUCTS 14-Dec-15 134 180 / 155 125 OPEN (6) 6458 8600 33
7 COX & KINGS 23-Dec-15 240 358 276 OPEN 15 6653 8600 29
8 TITAGARH WAGONS LTD 01-Feb-16 144 185 120 OPEN (17) 6342 8600 36
9 ECLERX SERVICES LTD 08-Mar-16 1320 1792 1248 OPEN (5) 6244 8600 38
10 Tata Elxsi Ltd 06-May-16 918 1254 813 OPEN (11) 6505 8600 32
11 Equitas Holding Ltd 08-Jul-16 185 265 152 OPEN (18) 7039 8600 22
12 Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd 24-Aug-16 270 400 251 OPEN (7) 7386 8600 16
13 Globus Spirits 26-Sep-16 88 165 79 OPEN (11) 7479 8600 15
14 S H Kelkar & Company Ltd 24-Oct-16 303 382 252 OPEN (17) 7552 8600 14
15 Equitas Holding Ltd 24-Oct-16 182 265 152 OPEN (16) 7552 8600 14
16 Globus Spirits 24-Oct-16 106 165 79 OPEN (26) 7552 8600 14
17 Byke Hospitality 22-Nov-16 171 268 173 OPEN 1 6835 8600 26
18 Syngene International Ltd 14-Feb-17 485 717 496 OPEN 2 7605 8600 13
19 Precision Camshafts Ltd 21-Mar-17 142 189 109 OPEN (23) 7909 8600 9
20 UPL 27-Mar-17 726 1095 779 OPEN 7 7865 8600 9
21 Bharat Forge Ltd 20-Apr-17 541 750 589 OPEN 9 8063 8600 7
22 Supreme Industries Ltd 25-Apr-17 1069 1450 1099 OPEN 3 8217 8600 5
23 Finolex Cables 26-May-17 498 640 542 OPEN 9 8234 8600 4
24 Garware Wall Rope 14-Jun-17 814 1025 880 OPEN 8 8421 8600 2
25 Advanced Enzymes 22-Jun-17 333 415 252 OPEN (24) 8444 8600 2
26 KALYANI STEEL 27-Jul-17 439 605 389 OPEN (11) 8737 8600 (2)
27 Tejas Networks Ltd 23-Aug-17 325 418 297 OPEN (9) 8585 8600 0
28 Sundram Fastners 04-Sep-17 408 535 440 OPEN 8 8700 8600 (1)
29 Aarti Inds 21-Sep-17 871 1084 893 OPEN 3 8911 8600 (3)
30 BLS Int Services Ltd 28-Sep-17 245 310 247 OPEN 1 8557 8600 1
Sector Allocation
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
10%
Value Absolute Performance as on 29th SEP 2017
Max 20 stocks portfolio Auto & Ancillary
35% 8% IMPRESS Portfolio NIFTY 500
Growth well balanced between the Financials
-2% -1.58%
Risk & Reward Infrastructure -2.2%
Oil & Gas -4%
Consumer… 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month Since Inception
Power (31st May 2017)
No. Top 10 Holdings % Sector % Allocation "Portfolio Plus" Returns as on 29th Sep 2017
Financials 20.6% Annualised Inception 18th
1 Finolex Cables Ltd 7.0% Consumer Durables 7.0% 1 Month 6 Month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Oct 11
2 Indraprastha Gas Ltd 6.8% Oil & Gas 11.2%
3 Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited 6.2% Infrastructure 5.4% PMS Portfolio Plus 1.2% 7.5% 15.8% 10.3% 15.1% 16.4%
Agri Chemical 8.9%
4 Syngene International Limited 6.0% Logistics 5.4% Blended Index* -1.1% 6.0% 16.9% 12.1% 15.0% 14.6%
5 Capital First Limited 6.0% Capital Goods 5.4%
Auto & Ancillary 9.2% NIFTY 50 -1.3% 6.7% 13.9% 7.1% 11.4% 11.8%
6 Larsen & Toubro Ltd 5.4%
Plastic Product 4.0% NIFTY MIDCAP 100 -0.9% 5.3% 19.9% 16.6% 18.2% 17.2%
7 ABB India Limited 5.4% Cement 4.4%
8 Container Corporation Of India Ltd 5.4% Paints 6.2% Note : Performance since inception is net of all expenses of the initial client (profit sharing model)
9 Sundram Fasteners Limited 5.1% Pharma 6.0% * Blended Index is taken as average of NIFTY 50 and NIFTY MIDCAP 100 Index
10 Axis Bank Ltd 5.1% Chemicals 5.0%
Cash 1.1% Data as on 29 SEP 2017
Total 100.0%
For Internal Consumption only 25
KOTAK SPECIAL SITUATION VALUE STRATEGY
1) These are debt instruments in the form of NCD mostly issued by NBFC’s
2) Unlike Plain vanilla NCD which offers fixed Coupon every year, these NCD offers conditional coupon paid
lump sum on maturity.
3) Conditional Coupon is based on the underlying asset performance which is linked to these NCD
4) Most of the NCD are linked to NIFTY Index
5) These are also called as Nifty Linked Debentures, Market Linked Debentures or in Generic Structured
Products
6) The strength of a structured product lies in its flexibility and tailored approach to investing
7) Risk and Reward matrix of traditional form of investment in Debt as well as Equity can be change with the
help of Structured Product.
8) Credit Risk is there as in case of all debt related investments
29
For Internal Consumption only
Classification’s of Structure Products
30
For Internal Consumption only
Benefits & Risks
Benefits to Investors Risks to Investors
Predefined Pay Offs Systematic Risk/Market Risk: The value of the investment
Plan B to your Portfolio Credit Risk / Default Risk: Probability of issuer/ Guarantor
defaulting.
Mechanical Strategy less human intervention
Liqidity Risk: These instruments are not frequently traded on
Diversification
exchange. Investor may not able to sell or redeem them
before maturity.
• Debt like
Asset • Targeting Nifty 2% p.a
• Principal Protected till -12.8%
*Historical probability is calculated considering 1182 Day rolling Nifty returns as on 31-Mar-17
Nifty Data from April 2004 to April 2014
Issuer - ARGFL 30
For Internal Consumption only
Protected Call (47% Coupon @ 106%) – Salient Features
Historical 1182 Day Rolling Returns - Back Testing*
Particulars Total
No. of Observations (Total Observations : 5077) 5,022
No of times product has delivered 47% returns 4,673
% of observations product has delivered 47% returns 93.05%
No of times product has delivered positive returns 5,018
% of observations product has delivered positive returns 99.92%
^Source: NSE 31
35
For Internal Consumption only
Nifty Accelerator 65% – Salient Features
• Equity
Asset • Targeting Nifty ~5% p.a.
• Coupon 62%-64%
• IRR 16.8%
Returns • PR1 ( from 0% to 16%) 150%
• PR2 ( from 14% to 16%) 1333%
Particulars Total
No. of Observations (Total Observations : 5,077) 5,022
No of times product has delivered 65% returns 4,042
% of observations product has delivered 65% returns 80.59%
No of times product has delivered positive returns 4,993
% of observations product has delivered positive returns 99.42%
Usually, in Indian market, insurance and investment objectives are combined. However, in most of the cases where insurance/
protection objectives are mixed with investment objectives, it has resulted in substandard returns which has created dissatisfaction
among most investors.
We strongly recommend not to mix the two objectives – protection and investment. Mixing them could be disastrous for HNIs.
We have developed a simple auditing process, based on the most relevant parameters of insurance products. This process can help
one evaluate the existing insurance policies held /bought over a period of time by HNIs.
• Dynamics of life stages: Life insurance may be required in the initial stages of working life when we start building our incomes,
investments and net worth. Initially, the purpose of life insurance could be to safeguard dependants in case of any eventuality.
However, over a period of time when sufficient net worth is generated, life insurance may not be required.
40
Insurance Audit – The Need of Today
• Regulatory Changes: A lot of regulatory changes have happened in life insurance industry over a past few years. In addition to
these changes, attractive plans have also come up in the market may be with lower cost. For example, Life cover of one crore
sum assured for male aged 35 and plan term 30 years costing around Rs 25000 to 30000 upto 2010 is available today for 13000
to 15000 – almost 50% lower.
• The Objective that the plan was expected to achieve: Many a times these plans have been purchased only to save taxes or
because of obligation to a relative or miss sold by an advisor who may not have been seen after purchasing the plan. The very
reason for having purchased the plan needs to be examined.
41
Safety Net & Estate Planning
RING-FENCING *
Do you think a Private Family Trust serves a greater purpose than the other avenues?
* Provided there is no nexus proven between the creation of the Trust and any liability arising on the concerned individual and the Trust is in existence for a considerable span of time
43
Constituents of a Private Family Trust
Wealth is
Contribute to Trust Corpus Preserved
• Executor – you may appoint an Executor to deal with the succession of properties and/or if children are overseas
• Your spouse or child could be the Executor & if not, it can be a close friend /CA/Lawyer
• Management of money
– You may need to familiarize your spouse to manage the investments in case of an eventuality
– Therefore she should be involved in every stage of design and execution of Strategy
Notes -
- For NRI individuals tax is deducted at sources as per the mentioned rates.
- In case the income exceeds Rs.1 cr than investors have to pay Surcharge @12%
- Education cess will continue to apply on tax applicable.
Note - Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is charged @0.001% on transaction of Equity oriented Mutual Funds.
For Internal Consumption only 47
Taxation on Structure Products
I. If Structured Product to be Held till Maturity:
o Unlisted - On Maturity of NCD, NBFC will give back principal plus interest, where TDS of 10% if PAN mentioned in DP, else 20% if PAN
No not specified in DP applicable would be deducted on Interest.
o Listed - On Maturity of NCD, NBFC will give back principal plus interest, where TDS of 10% would be deducted on Interest.
i. Unlisted –
i. Selling before 36 months, it is short term capital Gain, taxed as per tax slab rate
ii. Selling after 36 months, it is Long term Capital Gain where taxed @ 20% without indexation benefit
ii. Listed –
i. Selling before 12 months, it is short term capital Gain, taxed as per tax slab rate
ii. Selling after 12 months, it is Long term Capital Gain where taxed @ 10% without indexation benefit