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ENERGY SECURITY IN CHINA

Professor Karen R. Polenske

(krp@mit.edu) Room 9-535, MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Photos by Karen R. Polenske

March 24, 2006

Room 9-535, MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Photos by Karen R. Polenske March

THREE SUMMARY POINTS

GLOBAL SHORTAGES OF MAJOR INDUSTRIAL RESOURCES AND GOODS ARE BECOMING ACUTE

REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS IN CHINA OF GLOBAL SHORTAGES ARE SERIOUS

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ARE BECOMING LARGE AND CREATE SERIOUS POLICY ISSUES

GLOBAL SHORTAGES ARE SERIOUS • ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ARE BECOMING LARGE AND CREATE SERIOUS POLICY

IMPORTANT PHENOMENA IN CHINA

RAPID GDP INCREASE (8-10% PER YEAR)

• 26% OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS IN 1998

• LARGE ENERGY-INTENSITY DECLINE (67% 1980-2003)

• NON-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES PRODUCE 65% OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT (2004)

• LARGEST GLOBAL CONSUMER OF COAL, COKE, STEEL, AND OTHER ENERGY-INTENSIVE PRODUCTS

65% OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT (2004) • LARGEST GLOBAL CONSUMER OF COAL, COKE, STEEL, AND OTHER ENERGY-INTENSIVE

ENERGY INTENSITY of Selected Countries, 1980-2003

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Energy Intensity, kgce/constant 2000 U.S. dollar
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Energy Intensity, kgce/constant
2000 U.S. dollar GDP
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

Year

United States1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Brazil Iran China India Notes: (1)

Brazil1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year United States Iran China India Notes: (1) GDP

Iran1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year United States Brazil China India Notes: (1) GDP gross

China1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year United States Brazil Iran India Notes: (1) GDP gross domestic

India2000 2001 2002 2003 Year United States Brazil Iran China Notes: (1) GDP gross domestic product,

Notes: (1) GDP gross domestic product, measured in constant year 2000 US dollars. (2) Kgce = Kilogram of coal equivalent. (3) Units of energy consumption were converted from British thermal units to Kgce (1 million Btu=36 Kgce). Source: Compiled by the Multiregional Planning Research team from Energy Information Administration (2005b) data.

Kgce). Source: Compiled by the Multiregional Planning Research team from Energy Information Administration (2005b) data.

ENERGY-INTENSITY, 1978-2002:

CHINA AND SHANXI PROVINCE

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Energy Intensity (kgc e/thousand19
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Energy Intensity
(kgc e/thousand19
95 Yuan)
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

Year

EI of Shanxi1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year EI of China Notes:(1) GDP gross

EI of China1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year EI of Shanxi Notes:(1) GDP gross domestic product,

Notes:(1) GDP gross domestic product, measured in constant thousand 1995 Yuan.

(2) Kgce = Kilogram of coal equivalent. Source: Jonathan E. Sinton. 2002, China Energy Databook , Table 4B.2; Shanxi Fifty Years--1949-1999,1999; China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 2000-2002; China Statistical Yearbook, 1989, 2003, 2004

COKEMAKING AND STEEL SUPPLY CHAIN

Stage 1

Coal Mines

Stage 2 Coal Transportation

Stage 3 Cokemaking Plants

Stage 4 Coke Transportation

Stage 5 Coke Consumers

Plants Stage 4 Coke Transportation Stage 5 Coke Consumers • • • • • • Coal

Coal technology Coal technology mining mining

Coal Coal quality quality

Coking Coking coal coal

Other Other coal coal

Coal Coal preparation preparation

• • Domestic Domestic consumers consumers ( ( Iron Iron and and steel steel chemicals,
• Domestic Domestic
consumers consumers
( ( Iron Iron and and
steel steel chemicals, plants, plants,
chemicals, etc.)
etc.)
• Foreign Foreign
consumers consumers
etc.) etc.) • • Foreign Foreign consumers consumers • Vehicle Vehicle • technology technology •
etc.) etc.) • • Foreign Foreign consumers consumers • Vehicle Vehicle • technology technology •

Vehicle Vehicle

technology technology

Modal Modal choices choices

Fuel Fuel choices choices

Regulations Regulations

choices • • • Regulations Regulations • • • • • • Vehicle Vehicle technology

Vehicle Vehicle

technology technology

Modal Modal choices choices

Fuel Fuel choices choices

Regulations Regulations

Fuel Fuel choices choices • Regulations Regulations • • • • Source: MIT Multiregional Planning

choices • Regulations Regulations • • • • Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.
choices • Regulations Regulations • • • • Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.
choices • Regulations Regulations • • • • Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.
choices • Regulations Regulations • • • • Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.

Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.

choices • Regulations Regulations • • • • Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.

STRATEGIC POSITION OF CHINA’S COKE PRODUCTION

United States China Rest of the world 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
United States
China
Rest of the world
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
tonne sMillion
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002

Source: www.eia.doe.gov, China Statistical Yearbook, 1990-2002, China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 1991-1999, www.iea.org, Met Coke World Summit 2003, 2004 China Field Trip.

China Energy Statistical Yearbook , 1991-1999, www.iea.org , Met Coke World Summit 2003, 2004 China Field

World, USA, and China Coke Production

1991-2001

(million tonnes)

Year

World

USA

China

1991

335.9

21.8

73.5

1992

335.4

21.2

79.8

1993

331.1

21.0

93.2

1994

330.9

20.6

114.8

1995

366.4

21.5

135.0

1996

363.1

21.0

136.4

1997

359.8

20.0

137.3

1998

344.8

18.1

128.1

1999

332.9

18.1

120.7

2000

333.1

18.9

121.8

2001

n.a.

17.2

131.3

Source: www.eia.doe.gov, China Statistical Yearbook, 1990-2002, China Energy Statistical Yearbook,

1991-1999

n.a. = not available

, China Statistical Yearbook , 1990-2002, China Energy Statistical Yearbook , 1991-1999 n.a. = not available

World, USA, and China Steel Production

1992-2002

(million tonnes)

Year

World

USA

China

India

1992 722.7

84.3

80.9

18.1

1993 731.1

88.8

89.5

18.2

1994 730.3

91.2

92.6

19.3

1995 753.4

95.2

93

20.8

1996 750.3

94.6

100.3

21.8

1997 798.5

98.5

107.9

23.7

1998 759.9

97.3

114.1

23.5

1999 771.2

96.2

123.6

24.3

2000 829.6

100.1

125.8

26.9

2001 823.9

89.7

141.4

27.3

2002 886.7

92.4

181.6

28.8

Source: China Steel Year Book, 2001, 2003

2001 823.9 89.7 141.4 27.3 2002 886.7 92.4 181.6 28.8 Source: China Steel Year Book ,

Coal, Coke, and Steel Production in China

• China is the world’s largest producer of coal, coke, and crude steel.

Coal, Coke, and Crude Steel Production, 2000

(Million Tonnes)

 

World

China

USA

Japan

India

Coal

4531

998

974

3

311

Coke

333

122

19

39

12

Steel

847

127

102

106

27

Data Source: China Statistics Yearbook 2001, IEA, www.iea.doc.org, IISI, www.worldsteel.org

127 102 106 27 Data Source: China Statistics Yearbook 2001 , IEA, www.iea.doc.org , IISI, www.worldsteel.org

TEEH Chain in China

TECHNOLOGY ENERGY ENVIRONMENT HEALTH
TECHNOLOGY
ENERGY
ENVIRONMENT
HEALTH

The Technology, Energy, Environment, Health Chain in China: a Case Study of Cokemaking in Shanxi Province, edited by Karen R. Polenske. 2006. Kluwer/Springer Publishers.

in China: a Case Study of Cokemaking in Shanxi Province , edited by Karen R. Polenske.
Fushunxi: surface coal mine with plants in background, Liaoning Province, August 6, 2002

Fushunxi: surface coal mine with plants in background, Liaoning Province, August 6, 2002

Fushunxi: surface coal mine with plants in background, Liaoning Province, August 6, 2002
Jiexiu old beehive coke ovens with green chimney, July 31 2002

Jiexiu old beehive coke ovens with green chimney, July 31 2002

Jiexiu old beehive coke ovens with green chimney, July 31 2002
Sanjia Cokemaking Plant, Worker hand-shoveling coal, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002

Sanjia Cokemaking Plant, Worker hand-shoveling coal, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002

Sanjia Cokemaking Plant, Worker hand-shoveling coal, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002
SANJIA Cokemaking Plant – Loading 20-Tonne Containers, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 9, 2000

SANJIA Cokemaking Plant – Loading 20-Tonne Containers, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 9, 2000

SANJIA Cokemaking Plant – Loading 20-Tonne Containers, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 9, 2000
Yingxian Clean Coke Ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002.

Yingxian Clean Coke Ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002.

Yingxian Clean Coke Ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002.
QingXu YingXian top loading of coal into “clean” coke ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31,

QingXu YingXian top loading of coal into “clean” coke ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002

QingXu YingXian top loading of coal into “clean” coke ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002
Qingxu Coal-Gasif ication Company: Large-machinery (slot) coke-ov en battery with doors for new oven, Qingxu,

Qingxu Coal-Gasif ication Company: Large-machinery (slot) coke-ov en battery with doors for new oven, Qingxu, Shanxi Province July 31, 2002,

Company: Large-machinery (slot) coke-ov en battery with doors for new oven, Qingxu, Shanxi Province July 31,
Antai, Coke Push Into Quenching Car, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 7, 2001

Antai, Coke Push Into Quenching Car, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 7, 2001

Antai, Coke Push Into Quenching Car, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 7, 2001
Anshan iron and steel complex, Liaoning Province, August 8, 2002

Anshan iron and steel complex, Liaoning Province, August 8, 2002

Anshan iron and steel complex, Liaoning Province, August 8, 2002
Benxi Iron and Steel , Basic Oxygen Furnace, August 8, 2002.

Benxi Iron and Steel, Basic Oxygen Furnace, August 8, 2002.

Benxi Iron and Steel , Basic Oxygen Furnace, August 8, 2002.
Dalian port, wharves to unload coal, August 10, 2002

Dalian port, wharves to unload coal, August 10, 2002

Dalian port, wharves to unload coal, August 10, 2002
Dalian port, steel rolls waiting to be loaded, August 10, 2002

Dalian port, steel rolls waiting to be loaded, August 10, 2002

Dalian port, steel rolls waiting to be loaded, August 10, 2002

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