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28 January 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – 51% of Ontarians have an unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1127 Ontarians between January 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.92% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“It is surprising to see Doug Ford’s favourability numbers being this low this early in his mandate,”
said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This is not good news for the Premier
and if these numbers keep trending downwards, Ford’s favourability will match that of Kathleen
Wynne’s at the end of her mandate.”
Ford’s net favourability rating stands at -21.5%, while opposition leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating
is -0.5%. Interim Liberal leader John Fraser has a net rating of -6.8%, while Green Party leader Mike
Schreiner’s net favourability rating is -3.8%.
“Andrea Horwath is doing the best among party leaders in terms of favourability, but our findings
show that Ontarians are not happy with their current options for Premier of Ontario,” continued Maggi.
“Horwath is the most popular provincial party leader right now, but more Ontarians disapprove of
her than those who have a positive opinion of her.”
The poll also asked Ontarians who they would vote for if an election were held today. Among decided
and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford have 41.4% (-0.8% from November), while the NDP led
by Andrea Horwath come in with 27% (-0.5%). The Liberals with John Fraser at the helm have 22.6%
(+1.3%), while Mike Schreiner and the Greens have 7% (+0.6%).
“The PCs are doing well and are substantially ahead of their rivals, but Ford’s poor favourability
ratings indicate a high amount of dissastifaction with the government,” concluded Maggi.
-30-
11.2%
1.8%
6.3%
37.6%
All Voters
19.3%
Alland
Decided Voters
Leaning Voters
23.8%
2.2%
13.3%
7%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided
2.8%
5.7% 38%
22.6% 41.4%
Decided All
and Voters
Leaning Voters
17%
27%
23.2%
Progressive Conservatives
Progressive NDP
Conservatives Liberals
NDP Greens
Liberals Another Party
Greens
33.8%
34.5%
Toronto
23.8%
7.2%
0.6%
46.4%
17.9%
GTA
24.9%
8.2%
2.6%
42.9%
33.0%
Eastern
18.1%
4.7%
1.4%
30.1%
South Central
38.1%
20.9%
9.0%
1.9%
52.4%
Southwestern
18.0%
19.7%
6.2%
3.6%
22.4%
40.0%
North
29.3%
5.3%
3.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
17.2%
24.1%
29.5%
34.9%
2.3%
51%
aser Mike Schreiner 35.4%
Brian Pallister
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not sure
Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not su
14.5% 13%
21.6%
26%
16.8%
47.1% 47.8%
John Fraser 21.3% Mike Schreiner
6.4%
Brian Pallister
22.4%
17.1%
45.9%
We would now like to ask you your What is your age group?
opinions on the four leaders of the 18 to 34 years of age
provincial parties in the Ontario 35 to 49 years of age
legislature. 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
(order of the following four questions
randomized)
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Favourable Opinion
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our breakouts.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.92% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.79%, Females: +/- 4.58%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 7.24%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.98%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.15%, 65+ age group:
+/- 5.54%, Toronto: +/- 6.95%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.65%, South Central Ontario: +/- 7.92%,
Southwestern Ontario: +/- 6.86%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 8.25%, Northern Ontario: +/- 8.63%
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.