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NiveshDaily
May 10, 2017
INDICES
Indices Previous (day) Close % chg From Research Desk
Sensex 29933.3 0.0 %
Nifty 9316.9 0.0%
(As on 9th May, 2017)
Result Preview
Hero Motocorp Ltd. | Rating: BUY | Target: Rs 3875
Volumes were down ~6% YoY. Topline growth and margins is expected be lower on the
back of sizeable discounts offered during the last few days of March to liquidate the BSIII
inventory.
Result Update
Bharti Airtel Ltd.
Lower than expected mobile revenue from Indian & African region drags topline which in
turn pulled down PAT
Majesco Ltd.
Misses estimates; Disappointment continues
Nivesh Auto Monthly – April 2017
Result Today in INSL Universe
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited | Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511
IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Daljeet S. Kohli Result Preview
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 62406211
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Hero Motocorp Ltd. | Rating: BUY | Target: Rs 3875
(In Rs. mn) Q4FY17E Q3FY17 Q4FY16 Q‐Q change Y‐Y change
Sriram R Volume(Unit) 1,621,805 1,473,211 1,720,882 10.1 ‐5.8
Research Associate Revenue 67194 63646 75052 5.6 ‐10.5
Tel: +91 22 62406454 EBIDTA 9745 10797 11919 ‐8.9 ‐13.2
r.sriram@indianivesh.in PAT 6961 7720 8347 ‐9.8 ‐16.6
Margins bps
Rajiv Bharati EBITDA Margin 14.50% 17.00% 15.90% ‐246 ‐138
Research Analyst PAT Margin 10.40% 12.10% 11.10% ‐177 ‐76
Tel: +91 22 62406455 Source: IndiaNivesh Research
rajiv.bharati@indianivesh.in
Volumes were down ~6% YoY. Topline growth and margins is expected be lower on the
back of sizeable discounts offered during the last few days of March to liquidate the BSIII
inventory.
Valuation
At CMP of Rs 3282, Hero trades at 17x FY 18E EPS. We maintain BUY with a Target Price of
Rs 3875.
IndiaNivesh Research May 10, 2017
Bharti Airtel Ltd.
Lower than expected mobile revenue from Indian & African region
drags topline which in turn pulled down PAT
Q4FY17 Result Update May 10, 2017
Current Previous
CMP : Rs. 352
Rating : HOLD Rating : HOLD
Target : Rs. 395 Target : Rs. 408
STOCK INFO
BSE 532454
NSE BHARTIARTL
Bloomberg BHARTI IN
Sector Telecom ‐ Services Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Book Value per share (Rs.) 169
Face Value (Rs.) 5
Mkt Cap (Rs. trillion) 1.38
52w H/L (Rs.) 401 / 284 Bharti Airtel Ltd (BAL) Q4FY17 performance was way below INSL estimate on all
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %
counts. Lower mobile services revenue from Africa and India resulted in 7.6% drop
(as on Mar. 2017) in revenue below our estimates and 6.1% YoY at ~Rs. 220 bn.
Promoters 67.14
Public 32.87
Source: BSE
Airtel v/s SENSEX
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Research
A large part of the absolute drop in revenue Q/Q was nearly reflected in Q/Q drop
in EBITDA. In terms of business segment which contributed to the absolute fall in
revenue Q/Q, Mobile Services (India) and Mobile Services (Africa) fell by a sharp ‐
6.1% and ‐5.7% Q/Q respectively. The otherwise thriving Airtel Businesses vertical
fell ‐4.7% Q/Q, registering second consecutive quarterly fall. During the quarter,
company had an exceptional item of Rs. 6 bn (Rs. 1.3 bn towards opex on network
re‐farming and upgradation program, Rs. 5.4 bn on regulatory levies and litigation
related charges, ‐Rs. 0.65 bn reversal of costs related to restructuring activity)
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Tel: +91 22 62406211
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in In India business, non‐mobile segments felt the stress. Home Services recorded
(‐3.4% Q/Q), Airtel Business (‐4.7% Q/Q), Digital TV operations (‐0.9% Q/Q).
Rajiv Bharati
Research Analyst Passive Infrastructure Services was the only performing piece (+4.8% Q/Q).
Tel: +91 22 62406455
rajiv.bharati@indianivesh.in
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited|Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511
IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Q4FY17 Result Update (contd...)
Av. MoUs per user continue to climb up …as ARPMs continue to dip
480 420 240 52
471
360
450 180 39
300
Paise per min
437 434 437 435
Minutes
240
Rupees
420 424 120 26
418 416 418 419
415 414 180
404 405 406
120 60 13
390
60
251
255
265
271
264
267
278
291
282
290
308
315
313
330
381
0 0
360 0
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Mar‐17
Dec‐13
Jun‐14
Dec‐14
Jun‐15
Dec‐15
Jun‐16
Dec‐16
Sep‐13
Mar‐14
Sep‐14
Mar‐15
Sep‐15
Mar‐16
Sep‐16
Mar‐17
Cumulative ARPU (LHS) Voice ARPU (LHS) Voice ARPM (RHS) Mobile ARPM (RHS)
Voice traffic (bn min) Av. MOU (LHS)
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Data traffic up 31% Q/Q….ARMB de‐grows 32% Q/Q for Africa business dipped on sequential basis (down 5% QoQ)
Airtel
40 250 80 9%
200 8%
30 60
paise per MB
6%
mn GB
150
mn
20 40 5%
100
54 55 58 59 63 55 57 3%
10 51 36 39 40 42 46 49 51
20
50
2%
0 0 0 0%
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Mar‐17
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Mar‐17
Data Subscribers (mn) ARMB‐Blended (LHS) Data traffic (RHS) Africa Revenue (LHS) Africa EBIT Margin (RHS)
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Airtel seem to have gained on subscriber engagement seen Cell site addition profile
from ~16% QoQ growth in traffic growth
24% 168 4
3.6
15.7%
16% 156 2.9 3
3.0
8.6% 8.4%
Thousands
5.8%
Thousands
139
140
141
143
147
148
150
151
154
157
159
160
162
‐8%
120 0
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Mar‐17
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Mar‐17
Idea QoQ Traffic Growth Airtel QoQ Traffic Growth
Cell Site Addition ‐ Cumulative Cell Site Additions (RHS)
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Bharti Airtel Ltd. (contd...) May 10, 2017 | 2
Q4FY17 Result Update (contd...)
Q4FY17 Key Result Takeaways
Q4FY17 Q4FY16 Y/Y Q3FY17 Q/Q
Particulars (Rs. mn)
(Consolidated) (Consolidated) %Change (Consolidated) %Change
Bharti Airtel Ltd. (contd...) May 10, 2017 | 3
Q4FY17 Result Update (contd...)
Airtel Business
Enterprise segment (Airtel Business) revenue de‐grew by 4.7% Q/Q to Rs 25.8 bn (v/s Rs
27 bn in Q3FY17). EBITDA for quarter stood at Rs 9.4 bn, up 13.7% Q/Q. EBITDA margin
improved to 36.6% (v/s 30.6% in Q3FY17). During the quarter, segment reported the
free cash flow of Rs 7.2 bn (v/s Rs. 7 bn in Q3FY17). The capex stood at Rs 2.2 bn (v/s Rs.
1.2 bn in Q3FY17) during the quarter.
Digital TV
Digital TV segment recorded ‐0.9% Q/Q de‐growth at Rs. 8.7 bn as ARPU marginally
dipped at Rs. 228 per user in Q4FY17 (vs Rs. 232 per user in Q3FY17). Subscriber base
increased to 12.8 mn in Q4FY17 v/s 12.6 mn in Q3FY17). Digital TV reported EBITDA of
Rs. 3,153 mn (v/s Rs. 3.026 mn in Q3FY17). During the quarter, capex was at Rs. 1.386
mn (v/s Rs. 2,650 mn in Q3FY17).
Capex & Net Debt Update
Bharti incurred total capex of Rs. 38 bn in Q4FY17 v/s (Rs. 58.5 bn in Q3FY1). Net‐debt
stood at Rs. 914 bn (v/s Rs. 974 bn in Q3FY17). In Q4FY17, consolidated free cash flow
decreased to Rs. 41.8 bn (v/s Rs. 27.2 bn in Q3FY17 and Rs.41.8 bn in Q2FY17).
Outlook & Valuation
Data: Airtel has recorded a 4.4% Q/Q growth in its data customer base with data ARPU
falling ~32% Q/Q while MB/user has grown 27% Q/Q indicating sharp erosion in ARMB.
This was empirically evident from a slew of offers extended by all the incumbents to
ring‐fence their customers which is a continuation of trend seen for several quarters
now, although the trajectory of fall has steepened off‐late.
Voice: Cheaper call rates although instigated nominal growth in voice usage per
customer. Voice ARPU has taken a significant hit of ~7.5% Q/Q. We believe the trend
would continue in ensuing quarters as well.
At CMP of Rs. 352, the stock is trading at 6.4x FY18E and 6.1x FY19E EV/EBITDA
estimates, we remain cautious of too many variables being played out in this space and
maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of Rs. 395.
Bharti Airtel Ltd. (contd...) May 10, 2017 | 4
Majesco Ltd
Misses estimates; Disappointment continues
Current Previous Rs. Mn Q4FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY16 Q‐o‐Q% Y‐o‐Y% INSL Est. Variance%
CMP : Rs 368 Revenue 1909 2055 2216 ‐7.1% ‐13.9% 2231 ‐14.5%
Rating : BUY Rating : BUY EBITDA 131 117 27 11.5% 384.1% 129.4 1.0%
Adj.PAT 52 51 ‐20 2.6% ‐360.0% 48.6 7.0%
Target : Rs 652 Target : Rs 899 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
(NR‐Not Rated)
STOCK INFO
INDEX Rupee‐revenue de‐grew by 7.1% Q/Q to Rs.1909mn (INSLest.Rs.2231mn) in
BSE 539289 Q4FY17 as compared to Rs.2055mn in Q3FY17. FY17 revenue for Majesco
NSE MJCO was Rs.8,365mn as compared to Rs.7572mn in FY16, up 9.2% Y/Y in rupee
Bloomberg MJCO IN EQUITY
term. The growth was primarily driven by the addition of Cover‐all business
Reuters MJCO.A
Sector Information Technology and revenues from expanding relationship with P&C customers through
Face Value (Rs) 5 upsell and cross sell opportunities. EBITDA during the quarter was
Equity Capital (Rs mn) 117 Rs.131mn as compared to Rs.117mn in Q3FY17, up 11.5% Q/Q. Operating
Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 8,504 margin expanded materially by 116bps Q/Q to 7% mainly due to lower
52w H/L (Rs) 602 / 330
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 153,932
employee cost. Adjusted net profit was up by 2.6% Q/Q to~Rs.52mn.
Results FY16 FY17 Q/Q % Y/Y %
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %
In Rs. millions Q4 Q3 Q4 Change Change
(as on Mar, 2017)
Promoters 48.34 Sales 2,146.300 2,022.600 1,877.800 ‐7.2% ‐12.5%
Public & Others 51.66 Other Income, Net 70 32 31
Total Income 2,216.000 2,054.600 1,908.500
STOCK PERFORMANCE(%) 3m 6m 12m Employee Cost 1,402 1,397.70 1,124.80 ‐19.5% ‐19.8%
MJCO 1.2 (11.8) (33.2) As a % of sales 65.3% 69.1% 59.9%
SENSEX 5.8 8.5 18.6 Travel/Conveyance Cost 175.700 111.900 138.800 24.0% ‐21.0%
Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Research As a % of sales 8.2% 5.5% 7.4%
Other cost 611.200 427.80 514.20
MJCO v/s SENSEX
As a % of sales 28.5% 21.2% 27.4%
EBITDA 27.200 117.200 130.700 11.5% 380.5%
EBITDA margin 1.3% 5.8% 7.0%
Depreciation 38 69 70 1.7% 86.7%
As a % of sales 1.8% 3.4% 3.7%
EBIT (10.400) 48.200 60.500 25.5% ‐681.7%
EBIT Margin ‐0.5% 2.3% 3.2%
Net financials & Other income 3.800 18.200 10.00
Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Research Exceptional Items 0.300 ‐ 26.60
Earnings before Tax (6.900) 66.400 43.900 ‐33.9% ‐736.2%
Daljeet S. Kohli
‐0.3% 3.28% 2%
Head of Research
Taxes 30 3.100 7.600
Tel: +91 22 62406211
% of Profits ‐436.2% 4.7% ‐17.3%
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in
Minority Interest 17 19 11
Saptarshi Mukherjee Net Income (19.700) 50.700 25.400 ‐49.9% ‐228.9%
Research Associate Net Margin ‐0.9% 2.5% 1.3%
Tel: +91‐22 62406453 Adj. PAT (19.7) 51 52 2.6% ‐364.0%
saptarshi.mukherjee@indianivesh.in Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited|Research Analyst SEBI Registration No:INH0000000511
IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Q4FY17 Result Update | Majesco Ltd
Key Result Takeaways
C
Profitability Highlights
US de‐grew materially by 7.9% Q/Q and contributed 88.4% of the total revenue.
UK business witnessed sharp downtick of 11.5% Q/Q (Contri.| 6.0% of total
revenue); Revenue was up by 13.3% Q/Q in Others (Contri.| 5.6% of total
revenue).
During the quarter, employee cost de‐grew materially by 19.5% Q/Q to
Rs.1,125mn which was Rs.1,398mn in Q3FY17. Due to higher other expenses &
lower revenue base, MJCO has reported EBITDA of Rs.130.7mn (v/s 117.2mn in
Q3FY17). As a result, operating margin expanded by 116bps to ~7% (v/s 5.7% in
Q3FY17).
During the quarter, net financial income stood at Rs.10mn (v/s Rs18.2mn in
Q3FY17). PBT was dented due to exceptional loss of Rs.26.6mn (on account of
stamp duty cost (Rs.22.54mn) and goodwill consolidation (Rs.4.07mn)). MJCO
adjusted net profit of Rs.52mn (After Minority interest of Rs.11mn in Q4FY17) as
compared to Rs.19mn in Q3FY17.
Operating Highlight
Employee during the quarter was 2,312 as compared to 2,302 in Q3FY17. Out of
which 1,852 employees were based offshore in India and remaining 460 were at
various locations outside India.
Active clients during the quarter were 164 (v/s 164 in Q3FY17). In terms of client
concentration, the top 5 constituted 23.7% to revenue and the top 10 customers
constituted 37.5% to revenue for the quarter.
The 12‐month order backlog stood at US$ 65.7mn during Q4FY17. In constant
currency, MJCO’s orderbook stood at Rs.4,416mn as compared to Rs.4,266mn
($62.8mn) at the end of Q3FY17, reflecting an increase of 3.3% Q‐o‐Q in rupee
terms.
The strategic relationship with IBM has successfully kicked off with a Tier 1
insurer specifically on the platform as a service insurance initiative that IBM
announced in October 2016.
Corporate Highlights
The total cash & cash equivalent was at Rs.1752mn during Q4FY17 as compared
to Rs.2273mn in Q3FY17.
Majesco expanded partnership ecosystem with the additions iSIGN and eGain
strengthening the portfolio of offerings to clients and cloud business model.
Total debt during the quarter was Rs.854mn as compared to Rs.1171mn in
Q3FY17.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs.368, MJCO is trading at EV/Sales of 0.57x its FY19E estimate. We
maintain BUY with reduced target price to Rs.652 (Valuing 1.0xEV/Sales FY19E
unchanged) on MJCO.
Concall Highlight:
During the year, 15 clients went live as a result on‐going implementation revenue
decreased to US$10.9mn in Q4FY17 which was US$13.8mn in Q1FY17. Revenue from
new deals will replace the revenue stream.
Four of last six IT deals have been on cloud platform.
The cloud subscription revenue increased from US$550,000 to US$1.6mn in two
years for one client. In another case, revenue increased from US$800,000 to
US$1.2mn in two year’s period. Cloud based revenue increased by ~19.7% to
Rs.1589mn in 12‐months period and management expects that growth momentum
will continue.
IBM will offer Majesco software as a part of their insurance industry platform, which
combines Majesco software with IBM cognitive capabilities and will offer on IBM
cloud.
A Tier‐1 insurer selected Majesco as their strategic partner for the multi‐year
modernization program where the insurer will liberate Majesco's enterprise
consulting services for their underwriting and policy platform.
Management believes that profitability is an important focus area and will remain
committed to investing in R&D and SG&A that will support cloud business plan.
R&D expenditure during the quarter stood at Rs.283mn, which is 14.7% of total
revenue as compared to Rs.270mn, which is 13% of the total revenue in the previous
quarter.
P&C represented 83.1% of the revenue, Life and Annuity represented 15.1% and the
non‐insurance was at 1.8% in Q4FY17.
On a contractual basis, during Q4FY17, 1.4% revenues was accumulated from license
revenues, 64.7% was from implementation of professional services (including
consulting work) and 19% was from cloud services and 15% from support and
maintenance as compared to 3.2%, 62.3%, 19.5% and 15% in Q3FY17.
DSO also improved and stood at 67 days at the end of the fourth quarter (FY17) as
compared to 69 days in the previous quarter.
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y E March (Rs m) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Net sales 4,860 7,396 10,332 12,574 14,650
Growth (%) (3) 52 40 22 17
Operating expenses (4,839) (7,472) (9,037) (10,030) (11,389)
Operating profit 21 (77) 1,295 2,544 3,261
Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 21 (77) 1,295 2,544 3,261
Growth (%) (97.1) (459.6) (1789.9) 96.5 28.2
Depreciation (151) (178) (256) (284) (322)
Other income 84 267 108 162 228
EBIT (46) 11 1,147 2,422 3,167
Finance cost (13) (43) (37) (43) (49)
Exceptional item 0 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax (59) (31) 1,110 2,379 3,117
Tax (current + deferred) 6 150 (322) (690) (904)
Profit / (Loss) for the period (53) 119 788 1,689 2,213
Associates, Min Int 0 (1) (60) (191) (320)
Reported net profit (53) 118 728 1,498 1,893
Extraordinary item 0 0 0 0 0
Adjusted net profit (53) 118 728 1,498 1,893
Growth (%) (111) (323) 520 106 26
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y E March (Rs m ) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Share capital 114 115 115 115 115
Reserves & surplus 2,463 2,644 3,372 4,870 6,763
Net Worth 2,577 2,759 3,488 4,985 6,878
Minority Interest 657 723 783 974 1,294
Total Liabilities 1,949 2,875 3,628 4,213 4,467
Non‐current liabilities 895 1,438 1,598 1,748 1,748
Long‐term borrowings 641 919 1,079 1,229 1,229
Deferred tax liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
Other Long term liabilities 254 519 519 519 519
Long term provisions 0 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 1,054 1,436 2,029 2,464 2,718
Short term borrowings 0 0 0 0 0
Trade payables 1,137 1,728 2,321 2,756 3,010
Other current Liabilities (83) (292) (292) (292) (292)
Short term provisions 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities and Equity 5,183 6,357 7,898 10,172 12,639
Non Current Assets 2,437 2,725 2,719 2,686 2,653
Net Block 459 669 663 629 597
Goodwill 1,901 1,925 1,925 1,925 1,925
Non‐current Investments 76 131 131 131 131
Long‐term loans and advances 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Other non current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Current Assets 2,746 3,632 5,179 7,486 9,986
Inventories 0 0 0 0 0
Sundry Debtors 896 1,520 1,897 2,343 2,810
Cash & Bank Balances 1,224 1,272 1,939 3,509 5,272
Other current Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Loans & Advances 627 840 1,343 1,635 1,904
Current Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Total (Assets) 5,183 6,357 7,898 10,171 12,639
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 10 May 2017 4 of 5
Q4FY17 Result Update | Majesco Ltd
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y E March (Rs m) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Profit before tax (59) (31) 1,110 2,379 3,117
Depreciation 151 178 256 284 322
Change in working capital 205 (455) (287) (303) (483)
Total tax paid 6 150 (322) (690) (904)
Others (71) (224) (71) (118) (179)
Cash flow from operations (a) (1,669) (406) 686 1,551 1,874
Capital expenditure (159) (388) (250) (250) (290)
Change in investments 13 (55) 0 0 0
Others 84 267 108 162 228
Cash flow from investing (b) (63) (177) (142) (88) (62)
Free cash flow (a+capex) (1,828) (793) 436 1,301 1,584
Equity raised/(repaid) 0 1 0 0 0
Debt raised/(repaid) (95) 278 160 150 0
Dividend (incl. tax) 0 0 0 0 0
Others 127 85 (37) (43) (49)
Cash flow from financing (c) 86 630 123 107 (49)
Net change in cash (a+b+c) (1,646) 48 667 1,570 1,763
Reconciliation of Other balances 0 0 0 0 0
Cash as per Balance Sheet 1,224 1,272 1,939 3,509 5,272
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Key Ratios (Consolidated )
Y E March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Adjusted EPS (Rs) (2.3) 5.2 31.9 65.6 83.0
Growth (111.0) (322.6) 519.5 105.6 26.4
Dividend/share (Rs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend payout ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA margin 0.4 (1.0) 12.5 20.2 22.3
EBIT margin (1.0) 0.2 11.1 19.3 21.6
Net Margin (1.1) 1.6 7.0 11.9 12.9
Tax rate (%) 10.7 479.3 29.0 29.0 29.0
Debt/Equity(x) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Inventory Days 0 0 0 0 0
Sundry Debtor Days 67 75 67 68 70
Trade Payable Days 85 85 82 80 75
Du Pont Analysis ‐ ROE
Net margin (1.1) 1.6 7.0 11.9 12.9
Asset turnover (x) 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
Leverage factor (x) 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9
ROE(%) (2.1) 4.4 23.3 35.3 31.9
RoCE (%) (1.1) 0.3 21.3 35.7 35.9
Valuation (x)
PER (203.7) 91.5 14.8 7.2 5.7
PCE 109.2 36.3 10.9 6.0 4.9
Price/Book 4.2 3.9 3.1 2.2 1.6
EV/EBITDA 477.6 (135.8) 7.6 3.3 2.1
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Change
Royal Enfield(2W) Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
Total Sales 60,142 48,197 25% 60,113 0% 60,142 48,197 25%
Domestic 58,564 47,037 25% 58,549 0% 58,564 47,037 25%
Exports 1,578 1,160 36% 1,564 1% 1,578 1,160 36%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
M&HCV Royal Enfield
59,127
59,676
60,113
60,142
6,633
7,088
58,439
M&HCV Royal Enfield
57,842
57,398
57,313
75% 7,500 75% 70,000
5,771
55,721
5,379
53,378
5,326
51,320
4,951
4,936
50,682
4,878
4,734
49,156
48,604
48,197
47,710
4,449
4,449
50% 6,000
4,315
60% 60,000
4,100
3,946
3,707
40,453
3,077
3,067
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Feb‐16
Jul‐16
Sep‐16
Feb‐17
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
Royal Enfield recorded 25% YoY growth in March 2017. Royal Enfield has been performing
consistently despite the temporary slowdown on account of demonetisation. RE recorded the
highest sales ever during this month. MHCV sales witnessed a heavy fall which was in line
with the market leader, Tata Motors.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.: Total sales up 19% YoY, maintain BUY with target
price of Rs. 7375
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
PVs 109,505 86,481 27% 97,756 12% 109,505 86,481 27%
Mini Segment 38,897 31,906 22% 30,973 26% 38,897 31,906 22%
Compact Segment 63,584 48,873 30% 61,865 3% 63,584 48,873 30%
Mid‐Size 7,024 5,702 23% 4,918 43% 7,024 5,702 23%
Uvs + Vans 34,576 30,564 13% 29,939 15% 34,576 30,564 13%
LCV 411 304 411
Total Sales 151,215 126,569 19% 139,763 8% 151,215 126,569 19%
Domestic Sales 144,492 117,045 23% 127,999 13% 144,492 117,045 23%
Export 6,723 9,524 ‐29% 11,764 ‐43% 6,723 9,524 ‐29%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Company’s compact segment (Swift, Ritz, Desire, Baleno, Celerio) grew by 30% YoY to
63,584 units. Sales in compact segment were largely driven by newly launched Ignis and
Baleno. . Maruti has launched a new model “Ignis” which will compete with Kwid Climber
from Renault. Ignis will be classified as part of compact segment.
UV sales jumped by 29% YoY to 20,638 units mainly on account of new launched Vitara
Brezza and S‐Cross. The Maruti Vitara Brezza also outsold its closest competitor – Ford
EcoSport and Hyundai Creta.
Mini segment (Alto, WagonR), was up 22% YoY to 38,987 units despite increased
competition from Renault Kwid.
Production on the first line at the new plant at Gujarat has started. The total capacity is
1.5 mn, of which the company plans to commission 0.25 mn in CY18.
Total Sales
1,49,143
1,51,215
1,44,396
Total Sales
1,39,763
1,37,116
1,35,550
1,33,793
1,32,211
1,75,000 45.00%
1,30,280
1,29,345
1,26,569
1,23,034
1,17,908
1,17,451
1,13,606
1,40,000 30.00%
98,840
1,05,000 15.00%
70,000 0.00%
35,000 ‐15.00%
0 ‐30.00%
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
Tata Motors Ltd.: Total sales down 21% YoY, MHCV sales down by 53%,
maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs. 523
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
CV's 18,145 38,247 ‐53% 30,407 ‐40% 18,145 38,247 ‐53%
PVs 12,827 11,161 15% 12,272 5% 12,827 11,161 15%
Total Sales 30,972 39,382 ‐21% 47,573 ‐35% 30,972 39,382 ‐21%
Domestic Sales 28,844 35,597 ‐19% 42,679 ‐32% 28,844 35,597 ‐19%
Export 2,128 3,785 ‐44% 4,894 ‐57% 2,128 3,785 ‐44%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles
116% 21,000 28% 50,000
16,311
38,247
15,433
35,876
14,601
13,547
13,002
12,907
12,827
12,736
40,000
30,670
12,509
30,570
30,407
30,169
12,272
28,521
28,360
11,161
27,347
10,962
27,026
10,827
10,728
26,164
25,138
24,998
24,242
58% 14,000 0%
23,464
30,000
20,538
8,617
8,454
8,069
18,145
20,000
0% 7,000 ‐28%
10,000
‐58% 0 ‐56% 0
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
The company reported good volume growth on PV segment on account of sales generated by
newly launched SUV Hexa and also due the good show put up by Tiago. H. Tata Motors has
launched a new sedan “Tigor” in order to compete with Dzire and Xcent in the compact
segment. However, weak performance was reported on MHCV & LCV front.
Hero Motocorp Ltd.: Total salesdown 3% YoY, maintain BUY with target
price of Rs.3,875
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
2 Wheelers 5,91,306 6,12,739 ‐3% 5,24,766 13% 5,91,306 6,12,739 ‐3%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Total Sales
6,74,961
6,63,153
Total Sales
6,16,424
6,12,739
6,09,951
6,06,542
5,91,306
5,83,117
7,60,000 34%
5,63,348
5,50,992
5,49,533
5,32,113
5,24,766
4,87,088
4,79,856
17%
5,70,000
3,30,202
0%
3,80,000
‐17%
1,90,000
‐34%
0 ‐51%
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Hero MotoCorp performed reasonally well considering the back drop of transition from BS‐III
to BS‐IV and the recovery since demonetization. The company also raised prices ranging
grom Rs. 500‐2200 across different models to offset the price increases effective from 1 May
2017.
Atul Auto Ltd: Total sales up 101% YoY. Maintain HOLD with a TP of Rs. 400
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
Total Sales 2,502 1,242 101% 2,862 ‐13% 2,502 1,242 101%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Three Wheeler Sales
Three Wheeler Sales
5,037
6,000 120%
4,666
105%
4,005
3,915
90%
3,708
4,800
3,510
3,450
75%
3,339
3,303
3,180
3,174
3,025
60%
2,862
2,556
2,502
3,600 45%
2,349
30%
2,400 15%
1,242
0%
‐15%
1,200 ‐30%
‐45%
0 ‐60%
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Feb‐16
Sep‐16
Feb‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
The company continues to report lackluster performance. Although the company has
reported over 100% YoY growth, it is largely owing to base effect (1242 units sold in Apr‐
2016). Recovery seems to be far elusive as the company has reverted back to clocking below
3000 units/month.
Ashok Leyland Ltd.: Total sales down 30% YoY, NOT RATED
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
Total Sales 7,083 10,180 ‐30% 18,682 ‐62% 7,083 10,180 ‐30%
M&HCV 4,525 7,871 ‐43% 15,258 ‐70% 4,525 7,871 ‐43%
LCV 2,558 2,309 11% 3,424 ‐25% 2,558 2,309 11%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
MHCV LCV
15,258
3,462
3,424
45% M&HCV 18,000 42% LCV 4,000
3,094
2,959
13,240
2,816
2,738
2,696
2,678
2,646
12,056
2,605
2,558
30%
11,329
11,208
2,451
15,000
2,423
2,406
10,798
28% 3,200
2,309
2,310
9,758
15%
1,949
9,574
8,963
8,782
12,000
8,585
8,182
8,201
7,871
14% 2,400
7,469
0%
6,928
9,000
4,525
‐15% 0% 1,600
6,000
‐30%
3,000 ‐14% 800
‐45%
‐60% 0 ‐28% 0
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Feb‐17
Jul‐16
Sep‐16
Feb‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Total Sales Growth YoY Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
MHCV volumes were down 43% YoY while LCV volumegrew by 11% YoY. The company
recorded the lowest MHCV volume sales with 4,525 units.This was in‐line with the
performance reported by Tata Motors whose volumes were down by 53% YoY (Including
LCV). Eicher motors too witnessed 42% drop in YoY volumes during April’17.volumes of LCV
segment seems to be a mixed bag with Ashok leyland and M & M posting 11% and 19% YoY
growth respectively while Tata motors (Including MHCV) and SML de‐grew by 53% and 45%
YoY respectively.
TVS Motors Ltd.: Total sales up 8% YoY, maintain SELL with target price of
Rs.370
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
2 Wheeler 2,41,007 2,22,350 8% 2,50,979 ‐4% 2,41,007 2,22,350 8%
Scooter 81,443 63,341 29% 84,173 ‐3% 81,443 63,341 29%
Motorcycle 99,890 90,491 10% 95,671 4% 99,890 90,491 10%
Mopeds 59,674 68,518 ‐13% 71,135 ‐16% 59,674 68,518 ‐13%
3 Wheeler 5,303 4,746 12% 5,362 ‐1% 5,303 4,746 12%
Total Sales 2,46,310 2,27,096 8% 2,56,341 ‐4% 2,46,310 2,27,096 8%
Domestic Sales 2,06,089 1,98,742 4% 2,17,879 ‐5% 2,06,089 1,98,742 4%
Export 40,221 28,354 42% 38,462 5% 40,221 28,354 42%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Motorcycle volumes were up 10% YoY to 99,890. During FY17, motorcycle sales touched a
high of 122813 units in Sep‐2016. On scooter front, Volumes were up by 29% YoY. During
FY17, scooter sales touched a high of 89,918 units in Oct‐2016.Although overall volumes have
not reverted back to pre‐demonetisation period, TVS has shown the best recovery when
compared against its larger peers Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto. The company was riding on
strong moped volumes for FY 17. The run rate seems to have tapered down a little bit.
Motorcycles
Motorcycles
1,22,813
1,21,550
1,14,195
54% 1,50,000
99,890
96,485
95,465
95,671
95,062
90,491
86,776
83,374
36% 1,20,000
77,093
71,435
67,896
60,275
60,275
58,189
18% 90,000
0% 60,000
‐18% 30,000
‐36% 0
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY
Scooters Mopeds
89,918
92,417
Scooters Mopeds
84,850
84,173
79,786
81,443
78,057
60% 1,00,000
76,953
76,947
76,903
76,952
76,401
76,572
73,135
71,885
71,706
36% 1,00,000
71,135
70,049
68,518
69,020
68,171
68,033
66,966
67,539
67,089
65,783
65,434
65,025
63,341
62,552
45%
59,674
57,541
80,000
55,536
55,307
24% 80,000
30%
12% 60,000 60,000
15%
0% 40,000 40,000
0%
‐12% 20,000 ‐15% 20,000
‐24% 0 ‐30% 0
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY Total Sales Growth YoY
Escorts Ltd: Total sales up 19% YoY, NOT RATED
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
Total Sales 4,879 4,086 19% 7,079 ‐31% 4,879 4,086 19%
Domestic 4,740 4,048 17% 7,014 ‐32% 4,740 4,048 17%
Exports 139 38 266% 65 114% 139 38 266%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Total Sales
8,970
10,000
Tractor Sales 60%
7,725
7,079
6,946
8,000 45%
5,403
5,331
4,879
4,806
4,247
6,000 30%
4,086
4,035
3,732
3,652
3,280
3,187
3,140
2,751
4,000 15%
2,000 0%
0 ‐15%
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
Tractor segment continues to perform well. Performance was in‐line with market leader. M &
M posted 22% YoY growth.
SML ISUZU Ltd: Total sales down 45% YoY, NOT RATED
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
Total Sales 768 1,404 ‐45% 2,094 ‐63% 768 12,700 ‐94%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Total Sales
Total Sales
2,094
2,500 66%
1,929
1,656
44%
1,560
2,000
1,404
1,368
22%
1,145
1,082
1,500
1,021
1,010
1,002
977
963
0%
877
838
768
1,000
639
‐22%
500 ‐44%
0 ‐66%
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Total Sales Growth YoY
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
The sale volumes were down by 45% YoY. This was the worst month since December 2016.
M&M Ltd.: Total sales up 3% YoY, maintain BUY with a target price of Rs.
1721
Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY
PVs 19,325 22,655 ‐15% 25,352 ‐24% 19,325 22,655 ‐15%
LCVs 14,788 12,475 19% 21,437 ‐31% 14,788 12,475 19%
M&HCV 278 472 ‐41% 1,471 ‐81% 278 5,705 ‐95%
3 wheeler 3,438 3,755 ‐8% 5,062 ‐32% 3,438 54,975 ‐94%
Export 1,528 2,506 ‐39% 2,709 ‐44% 1,528 36,033 ‐96%
Sales Excl. Tractors 39,357 41,863 ‐6% 56,031 ‐30% 39,357 41,863 ‐6%
Tractors 26,001 21,386 22% 19,337 34% 26,001 21,386 22%
Total Sales 65,358 63,249 3% 75,368 ‐13% 65,358 63,249 3%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Passenger Vehicles (Domestic) Commercial Vehicles (Domestic
26,885
Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles
22,908
25,352
22,655
22,088
32%
20,605
20,537
24,000
20,096
18,059
19,635
17,438
19,325
26,000 18%
18,246
16,383
18,197
16,088
17,356
17,070
24%
16,698
15,066
14,385
20,000
14,154
13,993
13,890
13,864
13,540
13,168
13,109
12,947
12,644
12,465
13,217
19,500 0% 16%
16,000
8%
13,000 ‐18% 12,000
0%
8,000 ‐8%
6,500 ‐35%
4,000 ‐16%
0 ‐53% 0 ‐24%
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
The Tractor segment continues to do well. LCV segment seems to be performing well since
last March’17 after posting single digit growth for a long period.UV segment de‐grew by 15%
YoY due to stiff competition from Maruti (S‐Cross and Vitara Breeza) and Hyuntai (Creta,
Santa Fe) while Car segment de‐grew by 18% YoY.
Bajaj Auto Ltd.: Total volumes remain flat YoY; maintain HOLD with a target
price of Rs. 3020
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Change YoY Mar‐17 Change MoM YTD FY17 YTD FY16 Change YoY
Motorcycle 293,932 291,898 1% 244,235 20% 293,932 291,898 1%
3 Wheeler 35,868 38,211 ‐6% 27,962 28% 35,868 38,211 ‐6%
Total Sales 329,800 330,109 0% 272,197 21% 329,800 330,109 0%
Domestic Sales 177,887 226,133 ‐21% 169,279 5% 177,887 226,133 ‐21%
Export 151,913 103,976 46% 102,918 48% 151,913 103,976 46%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Domestic motorcycles were down 19% YoY to 1,61,930 units while exports were up by
44% YoY to 1,32,002 units. Dominar volumes stood at 3000 units of which 1000 units
were part of export market.
3W sales have come down to 35,868 units in April, down 6% YoY. It had clocked a high of
48,276 units in October. 3W export volumes grew by 59% YoY on account of diversion of
BS III inventory to export markets.
Bajaj Auto plans to achieve 2,00,000 units of domestic motorcycle sales in May’17.
Two wheelers Three Wheelers
331,976
307,892
307,344
36% 400,000
48,276
293,932
291,898
285,527
45,436
44,789
50% 60,000
279,911
44,306
43,671
273,298
264,249
41,551
41,221
40,951
40,311
252,988
247,782
38,211
244,948
244,235
37,437
237,757
235,282
35,868
24% 320,000 25% 48,000
32,191
211,824
203,312
30,093
28,555
27,962
22,217
12% 240,000 0% 36,000
‐25% 24,000
0% 160,000
‐50% 12,000
‐12% 80,000
‐75% 0
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
‐24% 0
May‐16
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Force Motors Ltd.: Total volumes down 16% YoY; maintain BUY with a target
price of Rs. 4698
Change Change Change
Segment Apr‐17 Apr‐16 Mar‐17 YTD FY17 YTD FY16
YoY MoM YoY
SCV & LCV 1,201 1,358 ‐12% 2,801 ‐57% 1,201 1,358 ‐12%
SCV & LCV Domestic 1,048 1,155 ‐9% 2,575 ‐59% 1,048 1,155 ‐9%
SCV & LCV Export 153 203 ‐25% 226 ‐32% 153 203 ‐25%
UV, SUV & Tractor 616 806 ‐24% 1,561 ‐61% 616 806 ‐24%
UV, SUV & Tractor Domestic 616 797 ‐23% 1,554 ‐60% 616 797 ‐23%
UV, SUV & Tractor Export 0 9 7 ‐100% 0 9 ‐100%
Total 1,817 2,164 ‐16% 4,362 ‐58% 1,817 2,164 ‐16%
Domestic 1,664 1,952 ‐15% 4,129 ‐60% 1,664 1,952 ‐15%
Exports 153 212 ‐28% 233 ‐34% 153 212 ‐28%
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
SCV and LCV segment faced pressure in the month of April 17. Volumes were down 12%
YoY. The company recorded the lowest volume this month after November 2016 where it
sold 859 units.
UV & Tractor sales volume were weak this month. Volumes were down 24% YoY. The
company recorded the lowest volume in this segment since January 16.
UV, SUV and Tractors SCV and LCV
2,500
3,500
1,981
2,801
2,782
2,000
2,800
1,561
1,528
1,489
1,230
1,217
1,918
1,500
1,147
1,832
1,120
1,796
1,093
1,060
1,035
2,100
1,704
1,001
1,607
1,544
1,535
1,446
1,402
1,358
806
1,309
1,293
785
1,000
763
1,201
616
1,400
859
500
700
0
Jul‐16
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Aug‐16
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
0
Feb‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Nov‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Jan‐16
Feb‐16
Mar‐16
Apr‐16
May‐16
Jun‐16
Jul‐16
Aug‐16
Total Sales
Total Sales
Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company filings, IndiaNivesh Research
Valuations:
Company Sales EBITDA PAT Mcap P/E(x) M cap/ EBITDA% NPM% CMP Target Price Current Previous
Name FY18e FY18e FY18e (Rs. Mn) FY18e Sales(x) FY18e FY18e Rs. Rs. Recom. Recom.
(Rs. Mn) (Rs. Mn) (Rs. Mn) FY18e
Atul Auto 5,202 707 441 9,206 20.9 1.8 13.6 8.5 420 400 HOLD HOLD
Bajaj Auto 261,816 58,647 45,988 831,395 18.1 3.2 22.4 17.6 2873 3020 HOLD HOLD
Ashok
238,280 27,495 15,826 235,923 14.9 1.0 11.5 6.6 83 NA NA NA
leyland*
Force Motors 38,258 3,284 1,947 58,730 30.2 1.5 8.6 5.1 4506 4698 BUY BUY
Eicher
151,483 26,640 21,747 738,173 33.9 4.9 17.6 14.4 27129 NA NA NA
Motors*
Hero
317,984 54,784 39,271 655,475 16.7 2.1 17.2 12.3 3282 3875 BUY BUY
MotoCorp
M&M 531,669 58,484 41,840 834,531 19.9 1.6 11.0 7.9 1344 1721 BUY BUY
Maruti Suzuki
800,835 130,933 88,499 2,002,579 22.6 2.5 16.3 11.1 6629 7375 BUY HOLD
India
Tata Motors 2,931,859 352,253 67,716 1,365,675 20.2 0.5 12.0 2.3 427 523 HOLD HOLD
TVS Motor
151,211 12,173 6,914 236,926 34.3 1.6 8.1 4.6 499 371 SELL SELL
Company
SML Isuzu* 16,044 1,445 902 19,345 21.4 1.2 9.0 5.6 1337 NA NA NA
Escorts Ltd* 47,653 4,380 2,855 73,632 25.8 1.5 9.2 6.0 601 NA NA NA
*Consensus Estimates; Source: IndiaNivesh Research
Results Today in INSL Universe
Hero Motocorp Ltd.
IndiaNivesh Research May 10, 2017
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This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward‐looking statements as such, may not match with a report on a company’s technical analysis report
Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this
report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Daljeet S Kohli, Kamal Sahoo, Santosh Yellapu, Rajiv Bharati, Sriram R, Monami Manna and Saptarshi Mukherjee.
Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter:
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in the subject company and nature of such financial interest
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conflict of interest at the time of publication of the document
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compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months
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public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12
months
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compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or
brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
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compensation for products or services other than investment banking
or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
in the past 12 months
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compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third
party in connection with the document.
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subject company
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subject company
14 Other disclosures No
INSL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations
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as per applicable law, without any prior notice. INSL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.
Definitions of ratings
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
HOLD. We expect this stock to deliver ‐15% to +15% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <‐15% returns over the next 12 months.
Our target prices are on a 12‐month horizon basis.
Other definitions
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been arrived at due to certain circumstances not in control of INSL
CS = Coverage Suspended. INSL has suspended coverage of this company.
UR=Under Review. Such e invest review happens when any developments have already occurred or likely to occur in target company & INSL analyst is waiting for some more information to draw
conclusion on rating/target.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company
One year Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at www.nseindia.com and www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock‐quotes.
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May 10, 2017
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