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They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on January 24-27, 2019. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 0%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
100%
unchanged
Don't know/
unsure 0%
100%
100%
100% 100% 100% 100%100%
98% 98% 97%
95% 95%
94%
92%
90%
88% 88%
80%
Raise interest rates: 80% 80%
60%
40%
20% 17%
12%
10%10%
Launch new quantitative easing: 2%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan
27 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29
'16 '17 '18
Feb
Mar 7%
Apr 3%
May 3%
Jun 60%
Jul Averages:
Oct 3%
13% Lower:
December
Nov 2019
Dec 13%
25%
Jan 13%
After 3%
Jan 2020 25%
Don't
know/unsure 13%
2.50 2.63
2.52 2.52 2.45
2.48 2.49
2.39
2.26
2.00
1.81
Average
1.50
2019 Hikes
1.20
1.00
0.71
0.50 2020 Cuts
2019 Cuts
0.24
0.00
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan
12 30 '19 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29
Survey Dates
Note: In the January 30, 2018 survey we asked for the expected performance
of Powell as Fed chairman. He was sworn in as chairman on February 5, 2018
Jan 30 2018 Jan 29 2019
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
3.68
Leadership
3.36
3.78
Transparency
3.59
3.70
Communication
2.67
Economic 2.95
forecasting 2.76
Economic 2.76
expertise 3.09
Regulatory 4.05
expertise 3.47
Market 3.81
knowledge 3.40
Overall 3.51
monetary policy 3.18
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7%
A (4)
40%
53%
B (3)
43%
Powell's
Grade
27% Average:
C (2) B-/C+
13%
(2.50)
4% Yellen's
D (1) December
5% 2017 Grade
Average:
B+
7% (3.18)
F (0)
0%
Don't 2%
know/
unsure 0%
Dec 18 Jan 29
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
21%
Too fast
44%
57%
Just right
53%
14%
Too slow
0%
Don't know/
7%
unsure
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0 bps
7%
5 bps
2%
10 bps
4%
Jan 29
4%
15 bps
2% Average:
41.6 bps
25 bps
32%
25%
Nov 7
35 bps Average:
2%
35.2 bps
50 bps
21%
32%
75 bps
11%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Reduce the
pace of its 42%
decline
Stick to its
current plan 56%
Speed up
the pace of 0%
its decline
Don't know/
unsure 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 53%
No 42%
Don't
know/ 4%
unsure
Too much
consideration 27%
Appropriate
consideration 53%
Not enough
consideration 18%
Don't know/
unsure 2%
60%
Approve 34%
52%
50% 49%
45% 45%
44%
40%
41% 38%
30%
Strongly
24% Disapprove 25%
18%
20%20%
19% 18% 21%
17%
18% 18%
17%
16% 15% 14% 14%
14% 11% 14%
13%
10% 12%
9%
8% 11% 9% 7%
5% Strongly
Disapprove
Approve
14%
9%
0%
Mar 20 May 1 Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 18 Jan 29
Dec 12 Jan 29
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New U.S. 2%
tariffs imposed
on China 2%
An agreement
to continue 67%
talks without
a new agreement
80%
0%
Don't know/unsure
0%
15. How have your 2018 and 2019 forecasts for GDP and
inflation been affected by recently enacted U.S. tariffs
and retaliatory tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as
incremental change of forecast in percentage points)
Average responses:
2020 -0.10
GDP: percentage
points
2020 +0.05
Headline percentage
inflation points
(CPI):
Average responses:
2019 -0.14
GDP: percentage
points
2020 -0.01
GDP: percentage
points
2019 Q1 -0.40
GDP: percentage
points
2019 Q2 +0.13
GDP: percentage
points
20. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
3,200
3038
3005
3,000
2975
2946 2936
2928
2879
2836 2846
2,800 2862
2774
2750
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29
2018 2019
Survey Dates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Global
economic 21%
weakness
Fed rate
hike policy 23%
Fed balance
sheet policy 10%
Tariff
concerns 22%
Worries
about U.S.
economic 16%
growth
Don't know/
unsure 6%
4.0%
3.16%
3.0%
3.03%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29
2018 Survey Dates 2019
23. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
3.1%
Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2021 3.04%
3.01%
2.98%
3.0% 2.98%
2.87% 2.99%
2.90%
2.93%
2.9% 2.86% 2.95%
2.92%
2.87%
2.85% 2.66%
2.8%
2.73% 2.80%
2.74%
2.70% 2.70%
2.68%
2.7% 2.67% 2.69%
2.67% 2.67%
2.60% 2.65%
2.6%
2.56%
2.54%
2.5%
2.49%
2.49%
2.4%
2.42%
2.3%
2.2% 2.22%
2.1%
Jan Jan Jan
Nov Dec Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec
31 30 29
1 13 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 20 1 12 31 25 7 18
'17 '18 '19
Dec 31, 2019 2.22 2.67 2.70 2.73 2.68 2.56 2.42 2.49 2.60 2.54 2.80 2.86 2.87 2.98 2.93 3.01 3.04 2.69 2.66
Dec 31, 2020 2.70 2.67 2.90 2.85 2.87 2.95 2.92 2.98 2.99 2.74 2.65
Dec 31, 2021 2.67 2.49
24. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.34%
3.30% 3.29%
3.20% 3.24%
3.17%
3.27%
3.11% 3.18% 3.21%
3.06% 3.11%
3.16%
2.98%
3.0% 3.04% 2.95% 2.94%
2.92% 2.98%
2.85% 2.94%
2.91%
2.85% 2.73%
2.79% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Jul 28
Jul 26
Sep 20
Jul 25
Sep 19
Jul 31
Sep 25
Apr 28
Apr 26
Sept 16
May 2
May 1
Aug 20
Dec 16
Mar 17
Dec 13
Mar 14
Dec 12
Mar 20
Dec 18
Jan 27, '15
Aug 25
Dec 15
Mar 15
Aug 24
Jun 16
Jun 14
Jun 13
Jun 12
Jan 26 '16
Jan 29
Nov 1
Jan 31 '17
Jan 30 '18
Nov 7
Oct 28
Oct 27
Oct 31
Survey Dates
2.44%
2.4%
2.33%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.05%
2.0%
1.9%
1.81%
1.8%
Dec 18 Jan 29 '19
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.85%
2.80%
2.78%
2.8% 2.75%
2.72%
2.70%
2.66% 2.66%
2.6%
2.56%
2.52%
2.4%
2.2%
2.06% 2.07%
2.0%
1.8%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29
'18 '19
2.6%
2.54%
2.51%
2.48%
2.5% 2.46%
2.41%
2.4% 2.40%
2.40%
2.38%
2.3%
2.26%
2.23%
2.2%
2.20%
2.1%
2.05%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29
2018 Survey Dates
2019
2019 2020
4.00%
3.96%
3.93%
3.79%
3.80% 3.77%
3.67%
3.66%
3.60% 3.64%
3.61%
3.40%
3.20%
3.00%
Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 18 Jan 29
'19
Survey Dates
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1 0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
1 3 1
Jun 12 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 8 8 4 0
Jul 31 5 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 8 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
2 2
Sep 25 2 2 2 9 0 0 2 2 7 4 0 2 0 6 4 0 4 2 9 2
1 1 1 3
Nov 7 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 3 7 3 0 0 4 3 0 0 7 1 0
1 1 3 1
Dec 18 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 9 7 2
Jan 29
‘19 2 2 1 1
0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 7 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 4 6 6 0
Other responses:
Democrats' unwavering hatred of Donald Trump and opposition to all
things Trump
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt sown by media
In 2019, we see domestic and political issues threatening recovery—i.e.,
shutdown and trade policies. In 2020, it's likely to be Fed tightening.
Lack of confidence in policymakers
Collapse in oil prices
Productivity growth
36.1%
This survey:
26.1%
35%
34.0%
Highest since
January 2016
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
10%
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Currencies Other
0% 16%
Fixed
Income
11%
Economics
56%
Equities
18%
Comments: