Augusta Solar 011119 1345

JANUARY 11, 2019
AUGUSTA SOLAR
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL CONTRIBUTION TO AUGUSTA COUNTY
4201 DOMINION BOULEVARD, SUITE 114

GLEN ALLEN, VIRGINIA 23060
804-346-8446
MANGUMECONOMICS.COM
About Mangum Economics, LLC
Mangum Economics, LLC is a Richmond, Virginia based firm that specializes in producing objective
economic, quantitative, and qualitative analysis in support of strategic decision making. Examples of
typical studies include:
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Measure the economic contribution that business, education, or other enterprises make to their
localities.
WORKFORCE INFORMATION
Project the demand for, and supply of, qualified workers.
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Use occupation and industry clusters to illuminate regional workforce and industry strengths and
identify connections between the two.
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The Project Team

A. Fletcher Mangum, Ph.D.
Founder and CEO
Martina Arel, M.B.A.

Researcher and Economic Development Specialist
Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar

Table of Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3
The Project .................................................................................................................................................... 3
Local Economic Profile .................................................................................................................................. 3
Total Employment ................................................................................................................................. 3
Employment and Wages by Major Industry Sector .............................................................................. 5
Unemployment ..................................................................................................................................... 9
Economic and Fiscal Impact ........................................................................................................................ 10
Method ................................................................................................................................................... 10
Construction Phase ................................................................................................................................. 11
Assumptions ........................................................................................................................................ 11
Results ................................................................................................................................................. 11
Ongoing Operations Phase ..................................................................................................................... 12
Assumptions ........................................................................................................................................ 12
Results – Economic Impact ................................................................................................................. 13
Results – Fiscal Impact ........................................................................................................................ 13
Gross County Revenue ................................................................................................................ 13
Composite Index Calculation ....................................................................................................... 18
Net County Revenue ................................................................................................................... 22
Current Agricultural Use ......................................................................................................................... 23
Other Considerations .................................................................................................................................. 24
Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar

Executive Summary
This report assesses the economic and fiscal contribution that the proposed Augusta Solar Project would
make to Augusta County. The primary findings from that assessment are as follows:
1) The proposed Augusta Solar Project would strengthen Augusta County’s economy:
• The Augusta Solar Project would aid in diversifying Augusta County’s economy
through a one-time pulse of jobs during its construction and by broadening the
County’s tax base.
• Augusta County is disproportionately dependent on a single industry sector –
Manufacturing. Where the Manufacturing sector accounts for 7.4 percent of total
private employment statewide in Virginia, in Augusta County it accounts for 20.8
percent, or approximately one out of every five jobs.
• The Construction sector is Augusta County’s 5th largest employment sector and pays
wages ($854 per week) that are just below the County average ($867 per week).
Construction of the Augusta Solar project will provide a significant boost to this key
sector.
2) The proposed Augusta Solar Project would make a significant economic contribution to
Augusta County:
• The Augusta Solar Project would provide an estimated one-time pulse of economic
activity during its construction phase of approximately:
o 240 full-time-equivalent jobs.
o $11.8 million in associated labor income.
o $32.4 million in economic output.
• The Augusta Solar Project would provide an ongoing estimated annual economic
impact during its operational phase of approximately:
o $527,223 in associated labor income.
o $1.2 million in economic output.
• In comparison, our analysis indicates that in its current agricultural use, the property
that would be used for the Augusta Solar Project provides an ongoing estimated
annual economic impact of approximately:
o $204,822 in associated labor income.
o $509,411 in economic output.
Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 1

3) The proposed Augusta Solar Project would also make a significant fiscal contribution to
Augusta County. We estimate that the proposed project would generate approximately:
• $824,217 in state and local tax revenue from the one-time pulse of economic activity
associated with the project’s construction.
• $289,526 in net county revenue in the facility’s first year of operation (exclusive of
county fees for permitting and controlling for the effect the facility would have on the
county’s composite index and locally funded school budget), with that figure
projected to gradually decline to $60,588 in the facility’s 35th year of operation, as the
value of the proposed project-related capital investments is depreciated.
• $3.7 million in cumulative county revenue over the 35-year expected life of the solar
project, which increases to $8.0 million if the supplemental benefits package that
Community Energy, the developer of the project, has offered to the County is taken
into account. In comparison, in its current agricultural use the property is likely to
generate cumulative county revenue of $681,972 over 35 years – a difference of
between $3.0 and $7.3 million respectively.
Cumulative Augusta County Tax Revenue over 35 Years

$9,000,000
$7,975,422
$8,000,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
$4,000,000 $3,652,068
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000 $681,972
$0
Current Agricultural Proposed Solar Proposed Solar
Use Project Use Project Use w/
Supplemental
Benefits Package
The estimates provided in this report are based on the best information available and all reasonable care
has been taken in assessing that information. However, because these estimates attempt to foresee
circumstances that have not yet occurred, it is not possible to provide any assurance that they will be
representative of actual events. These estimates are intended to provide a general indication of likely
future outcomes and should not be construed to represent a precise measure of those outcomes.

Introduction
This report assesses the economic and fiscal contribution that the Augusta Solar Project would make to
Augusta County. This report was commissioned by Augusta County, and produced by Mangum
Economics.
The Project
Augusta Solar is a 125 MW-AC single axis tracking solar generation project proposed for Augusta County.
The tax map parcels involved in the requested Special Use Permit for the project consist of
approximately 2,700 acres of privately owned land, all of which is currently zoned for General
Agriculture. The solar panels themselves are expected to be installed on 1,100 acres of that total.
Local Economic Profile

In this section, we provide context for the economic and fiscal impact assessments to follow by profiling
the local economy of Augusta County.
Total Employment
Figure 1 depicts the trend in total employment in Augusta County from the 2nd quarter of 2013 to the 2nd
quarter of 2018. As these data show, employment in the county generally trended upward throughout
the period. As of the 2nd quarter of 2018, county employment stood at 27,662 jobs. This represents a
2,110 job, or 8.3 percent, increase in employment over the period as a whole. To put this number in
perspective, over this same period total statewide employment in Virginia increased by 6.8 percent. 1
1
Data Source: Virginia Employment Commission.

Figure 1: Total Employment in Augusta County – 2nd Quarter 2013 to 2nd Quarter 20182
28,000
27,500
27,000
26,500
26,000
25,500
25,000
24,500
24,000
23,500
To control for seasonality and to provide a point of reference, Figure 2 compares the year-over-year
change in total employment in Augusta County to that of the state of Virginia as a whole over the same
five-year period. Any point above the zero line in this graph indicates growth in year-over-year
employment, while any point below the zero line indicates a decline in year-over-year employment. As
these data indicate, year-over-year employment changes in Augusta County generally out-performed
the statewide through 2016, but dipped below the statewide average for much of the remaining period.
As of the 2nd quarter of 2018, year-over-year employment growth was 2.3 percent in Augusta County as
compared to 1.4 percent statewide in Virginia.
2

Figure 2: Year-Over-Year Change in Total Employment – 2nd Quarter 2013 to 2nd Quarter 2018 3
5%
4%
3%
Augusta
2%
County
1%
0%
Virginia
-1%
-2%
-3%
Employment and Wages by Major Industry Sector

To provide a better understanding of the underlying factors motivating the total employment trends
depicted in Figures 1 and 2, Figures 3 through 5 present data on private sector employment and wages
by major industry in Augusta County.
Figure 3 shows the distribution of private sector employment across major industries in Augusta
County’s economy in the 2nd quarter of 2018 by ranking each industry by total employment. As these
data indicate, the county’s largest industry that quarter was Manufacturing (5,760 jobs), followed by
Health Care and Social Assistance (3,863 jobs), Transportation and Warehousing (3,060 jobs), Retail
Trade (2,022 jobs), and Construction (1,725 jobs).
Figure 4 offers a similar ranking for average private sector weekly wages by major industry in Augusta
County in the 2nd quarter of 2018. As these data show, the highest paying private sector industries in the
county that quarter were Management of Companies and Enterprises ($1,766 per week), Utilities
($1,499 per week), Information ($1,164 per week), Manufacturing ($1,084 per week), and Health Care
and Social Assistance ($1,037 per week). By way of reference, the average private sector weekly wage
across all industries in Augusta County that quarter was $867 per week.
3

Figure 3: Private Sector Employment by Major Industry in Augusta County – 2nd Quarter 2018 4
Manufacturing 5,760
Health Care & Social Assistance 3,863
Transportation & Warehousing 3,060
Retail Trade 2,022
Construction 1,725
Accommodation & Food Serv. 1,652
Administrative & Support &

1,202
Waste Mgmt.
Wholesale Trade 864
Other Services 591
Professional, Scientific, &

564
Technical Serv.
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &
351
Hunting
Educational Serv. 274
Finance & Insurance 270
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 223
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 111
Information 100
Utilities 71
Mgmt. of Companies &

32
Enterprises
Mining, Quarrying & Oil & Gas
23
Extr.
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
4

Figure 4: Private Sector Average Weekly Wages by Major Industry in Augusta County – 2nd Quarter 20185
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises $1,766
Utilities $1,499
Information $1,164
Manufacturing $1,084
Health Care & Social Assistance $1,037
Mining, Quarrying & Oil & Gas

$978
Extr.
Transportation & Warehousing $967
Wholesale Trade $930
Finance & Insurance $915
Average, All Industries $867
Construction $854
Professional, Scientific, &

$784
Technical Serv.
Other Services $715
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing $705
Educational Serv. $596
Retail Trade $575
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &

$559
Hunting
Administrative & Support & Waste
$538
Mgmt.
Accommodation & Food Serv. $304
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation $292
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
5

Figure 5: Change in Private Sector Employment by Major Industry in Augusta County – 2nd Quarter 2017 to
2nd Quarter 2018 6
Manufacturing 202
Administrative & Support & Waste Mgmt. 187
Health Care & Social Assistance 173
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Serv. 101
Educational Serv. 69
Other Services 46
Wholesale Trade 26
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 17
Accommodation & Food Serv. 17
Transportation & Warehousing 14
Utilities 4
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing -2
Mining, Quarrying & Oil & Gas Extr. -2
Information -18
Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises -19
Finance & Insurance -31
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation -31
Retail Trade -41
Construction -106
-400 -200 0 200 400 600
6

Lastly, Figure 5 details the year-over-year change in private sector employment between the 2nd quarter
of 2017 and the 2nd quarter of 2018 by major industry in Augusta County. Over this period, the largest
private sector employment gains occurred in the Manufacturing (up 202 jobs), Administrative and
Support and Waste Management Services (up 187 jobs), and Health Care and Social Assistance (up 173
jobs) industries. At the other end of the spectrum, the largest private sector employment losses
occurred in the Construction (down 106 jobs), Retail Trade (down 41 jobs), and Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation (down 31 jobs) industries.
Unemployment
Figure 6 illustrates the trend in Augusta County’s unemployment rate over the five-year period from
November 2013 through November 2018 and benchmarks those data against the statewide trend for
Virginia. As these data show, unemployment rates in Augusta County generally tracked very closely with
the statewide trend throughout this period, but with rates about four-tenths of a percentage point
below the statewide average. As of November 2018, unemployment stood at 2.4 percent in Augusta
County and 2.7 percent in Virginia as a whole.
Figure 6: Unemployment Rate – November 2013 to November 20187
6.0%
5.5%
5.0% Augusta
County
4.5%
4.0%
3.5% Virginia
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
7

Economic and Fiscal Impact
In this section, we quantify the economic and fiscal contribution that the Augusta Solar Project would
make to Augusta County. Our analysis separately evaluates the one-time pulse of economic activity that
would occur during the construction phase of the project, and the annual economic activity that the
project would generate during its ongoing operations phase.
METHOD
To empirically evaluate the likely local and statewide economic impact attributable to the proposed
Augusta Solar Project, we employ a regional economic impact model called IMPLAN. 8 The IMPLAN
model is one of the most commonly used economic impact simulation models in the U.S., and in Virginia
is used by UVA’s Weldon Cooper Center, the Virginia Department of Planning and Budget, the Virginia
Employment Commission, and other state agencies and research institutes. Like all economic impact
models, the IMPLAN model uses economic multipliers to quantify economic impact.
Economic multipliers measure the ripple effects that an expenditure generates as it makes its way
through the economy. For example, as when the Augusta Solar Project purchases goods and services –
or when project employees or contractors use their salaries and wages to make household purchases –
thereby generating income for someone else, which is in turn spent, thereby becoming income for yet
someone else, and so on, and so on. Through this process, one dollar in expenditures generates multiple
dollars of income. The mathematical relationship between the initial expenditure and the total income
generated is the economic multiplier.
One of the primary advantages of the IMPLAN model is that it uses regional and national production and
trade flow data to construct region-specific and industry-specific economic multipliers, which are then
further adjusted to reflect anticipated actual spending patterns within the specific geographic study area
that is being evaluated. As a result, the economic impact estimates produced by IMPLAN are not
generic. They reflect as precisely as possible the economic realities of the specific industry, and the
specific study area, being evaluated.
In the analysis that follows, these impact estimates are divided into three categories. First round direct
impact measures the direct economic contribution of the entity being evaluated (e.g., own employment,
wages paid, goods and services purchased by the Augusta Solar Project). Second round indirect and
induced impact measures the economic ripple effects of this direct impact in terms of business to
business, and household (employee) to business, transactions. Total impact is simply the sum of the
preceding two. These categories of impact are then further defined in terms of employment (the jobs
that are created), labor income (the wages and benefits associated with those jobs), economic output
8
IMPLAN v.3 is produced by Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc.

(the total amount of economic activity that is created in the economy), and fiscal impact (the state and
local tax revenues that are generated by this economic activity).
CONSTRUCTION PHASE
In this portion of the section, we assess the economic and fiscal impact that the one-time pulse of
activity associated with construction of the Augusta Solar Project would have on Augusta County.
Assumptions
In conducting our analysis, we employ the following assumptions:
• Total architecture, engineering, and construction costs are estimated to be $64.7 million for the
Augusta Solar Project. 9
• It is anticipated that approximately 40 percent of architecture, engineering, and construction
expenditures would be spent with vendors in Augusta County.10
• Capital equipment costs are estimated to be $111.0 million for the Augusta Solar Project. 11
• It is anticipated that no capital equipment will be purchased from vendors in Augusta County. 12
Results
By feeding these assumptions into the IMPLAN model, we obtain the following estimates of one-time
economic and fiscal impact. As shown in Table 1, construction of the proposed Augusta Solar Project
would directly provide a one-time pulse of approximately: 1) 190 full-time-equivalent jobs, 2) $9.9
million in labor income, and 3) $26.0 million in economic output to Augusta County.
Taking into account the economic ripple effects that direct investment would generate, we estimate
that the total one-time impact on Augusta County would be approximately: 1) 240 full-time-equivalent
jobs, 2) $11.8 million in labor income, 3) $32.4 million in economic output, and 4) $824,217 in state and
local tax revenue.
9
Data Source: Community Energy.
10
Data Source: Derived from IMPLAN data and experience with similar projects. It is not possible to know with
precision the proportion of services that will be purchased from Augusta County contractors and subcontractors.
11
12
Data Source: Community Energy and experience with similar projects.

Table 1: Estimated One-Time Economic and Fiscal Impact on Augusta County from Construction of
Augusta Solar Project (2019 Dollars)
Economic Impact Employment Labor Income Output

1st Round Direct Economic Activity 190 $9,851,329 $26,027,407
2nd Round Indirect and Induced
50 $1,934,160 $6,421,426
Economic Activity
Total Economic Activity 240 $11,785,489 $32,448,833
Fiscal Impact
State and Local Tax Revenue $824,217
ONGOING OPERATIONS PHASE

In this portion of the section, we assess the annual economic and fiscal impact that the Augusta Solar
Project would have on Augusta County during its anticipated 35-year operational phase.
Assumptions
In conducting our analysis, we employ the following assumptions:
• The Augusta Solar Project would employ ten workers with combined annual wages of
$418,369. 13
• The Augusta Solar Project would spend approximately $475,087 each year on the purchase of
goods and services (i.e., primarily for vegetative maintenance, cleaning of panels, and electrical
maintenance). 14
• The Augusta Solar Project would involve a capital investment of $175.8 in equipment and capital
improvements to the existing property. 15
• The Augusta Solar Project would generate approximately $138,701 in roll back real property
taxes.16
13
14
15
16
Data Source: Mangum Economics and Augusta County. Changing the use of the property from agricultural to
industrial increases the assessed value of the property for purposes of real estate taxes. In such instances, Augusta
County requires the owner to pay “roll back taxes,” or the difference in the current and previous real estate taxes
on the property going back for a period of five years.

Results – Economic Impact
By feeding these assumptions into the IMPLAN model, we obtain the following estimates of annual
economic and fiscal impact. As shown in Table 2, annual operation of the proposed Augusta Solar
Project would directly provide approximately: 1) 10 full-time-equivalent jobs, 2) $418,369 in labor
income, and 3) $893,456 in economic output to Augusta County.
Taking into account the economic ripple effects that direct impact would generate, we estimate that the
total annual impact on Augusta County would be approximately: 1) 13 full-time-equivalent jobs, 2)
$527,223 in labor income, and 3) $1.2 million in economic output.
Table 2: Estimated Annual Economic Impact on Augusta County from the ongoing Operation of the
Augusta Solar Project (2019 Dollars)

1st Round Direct Economic Activity 10 $418,369 $893,456
2 Round Indirect and Induced
nd
3 $108,854 $346,403
Economic Activity
Total Economic Activity 13 $527,223 $1,239,859
Results – Fiscal Impact

In this portion of the section, we quantify the net fiscal contribution that the proposed Augusta Solar
Project would make to Augusta County. This analysis explicitly takes into account roll back taxes, the
ongoing difference in real estate taxes attributable to changing the land use designation from
agricultural to solar energy generating, and the effect the proposed project would have on the county’s
composite index and the local contribution to the county’s school budget.
Gross County Revenue

Table 3 provides a calculation of the gross revenue that the proposed Augusta Solar Project would
generate for Augusta County over a 35-year period. This calculation is based on: 1) roll back taxes, and
2) the increased value of the property from proposed capital improvements, times depreciation
(pursuant to State Corporation Commission guidelines), times the 80 percent local real property tax
exemption (pursuant to Virginia Code § 58.1-3660), times Augusta County’s real property tax rate of
$0.63 per $100 of assessed value (pursuant to Virginia Code § 58.1-2606 and the county’s published tax
rate for real property), with the property assessed at 92.9 percent in accordance with the State
Corporation Commission’s guideline for tax assessment of public utilities in Augusta County, plus the
real estate tax revenue that the site would generate as a result of the change in its land use designation.

As the data In Table 3 indicate, we estimate gross county revenue from the project to be approximately
$373,199 in the project’s first year of operation (exclusive of county fees for permitting), with that figure
projected to gradually decline to approximately $69,885 in the project’s 35th year of operation, as the
value of the proposed capital investments is depreciated.

Table 3: Estimated Gross County Tax Revenue Generated by the Augusta Solar Project over 35 Years (2019 Dollars)
Additional
Taxable Capital Annual County Gross
Depreciated Annual County
Capital Investment Tax Revenue Additional
Year Depreciation 18
Value of Capital Tax Revenue
Investment 17 (less 80% from Real Annual County
Investment Solar
exemption) 19 Estate 21 Tax Revenue
Investment 20
1 $175,787,368 90.0% $158,208,631 $29,395,164 $185,190 $188,009 $373,199
2 $175,787,368 90.0% $158,208,631 $29,395,164 $185,190 $49,308 $234,498
3 $175,787,368 90.0% $158,208,631 $29,395,164 $185,190 $49,308 $234,498
4 $175,787,368 90.0% $158,208,631 $29,395,164 $185,190 $49,308 $234,498
5 $175,787,368 89.7% $157,734,005 $29,306,978 $184,634 $49,308 $233,942
6 $175,787,368 87.3% $153,444,794 $28,510,043 $179,613 $49,308 $228,921
7 $175,787,368 84.7% $148,891,901 $27,664,115 $174,284 $49,308 $223,592
8 $175,787,368 82.0% $144,075,327 $26,769,196 $168,646 $49,308 $217,954
9 $175,787,368 79.1% $138,977,493 $25,822,018 $162,679 $49,308 $211,987
10 $175,787,368 76.0% $133,563,242 $24,816,050 $156,341 $49,308 $205,649
17
18
Data Source: State Corporation Commission guidelines.
19
Calculated pursuant to Virginia Code § 58.1-3660 which stipulates that solar facilities over 20MW are subject to an 80 percent exemption from local
property taxes, and taking into account the State Corporation Commission’s guideline for tax assessment of public utilities in Augusta County of 92.9 percent.
20
Calculated pursuant to Virginia Code § 58.1-2606 which stipulates that capital equipment owned by utilities is taxed as real property and the local tax rate
on that capital equipment would be capped at Augusta County’s real property tax rate of $0.63 per $100 of assessed value.
21
Data Source: Mangum Economics and Augusta County. Calculated based on the estimated assessed value of the 1,100 affected acres in their proposed land
use, and Augusta County’s real property tax rate of $0.63 per $100 of assessed value. In addition, year one of this calculation also includes estimated roll back
taxes of $138,701. Changing the use of the property from agricultural increases the assessed value of the property for purposes of real estate taxes. In such
instances, Augusta County requires the owner to pay “roll back taxes,” or the difference in the current and previous real estate taxes on the property going
back for a period of five years.
Additional
Investment Solar
Investment 20
11 $175,787,368 72.7% $127,814,995 $23,748,026 $149,613 $49,308 $198,921
12 $175,787,368 69.3% $121,732,752 $22,617,945 $142,493 $49,308 $191,801
13 $175,787,368 65.6% $115,281,356 $21,419,276 $134,941 $49,308 $184,249
14 $175,787,368 61.7% $108,460,806 $20,152,018 $126,958 $49,308 $176,266
15 $175,787,368 57.6% $101,218,366 $18,806,372 $118,480 $49,308 $167,788
16 $175,787,368 53.2% $93,536,459 $17,379,074 $109,488 $49,308 $158,796
17 $175,787,368 48.6% $85,397,503 $15,866,856 $99,961 $49,308 $149,269
18 $175,787,368 43.7% $76,766,344 $14,263,187 $89,858 $49,308 $139,166
19 $175,787,368 38.5% $67,625,400 $12,564,799 $79,158 $49,308 $128,466
20 $175,787,368 33.0% $57,921,938 $10,761,896 $67,800 $49,308 $117,108
21 $175,787,368 27.1% $47,655,955 $8,854,477 $55,783 $49,308 $105,091
22 $175,787,368 20.9% $36,757,139 $6,829,476 $43,026 $49,308 $92,334
23 $175,787,368 14.3% $25,207,909 $4,683,629 $29,507 $49,308 $78,815
24 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
25 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
26 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
27 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
28 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
29 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
30 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885

Additional
Investment Solar
Investment 20
31 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
32 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
33 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
34 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
35 $175,787,368 10.0% $17,578,737 $3,266,129 $20,577 $49,308 $69,885
Total $3,260,941 $1,864,481 $5,125,422

Composite Index Calculation
On average, Virginia localities fund 45 percent of their primary and secondary education expenditures
and the Commonwealth of Virginia funds the remaining 55 percent. But, each locality’s share is adjusted
up or down based on a composite index that measures the locality’s “ability to pay,” where “ability to
pay” is determined by the locality’s property tax base, adjusted gross income, and taxable retail sales.
Table 4 illustrates the likely effect that the capital improvements proposed as part of the Augusta Solar
Project would have on Augusta County’s composite index, and the county’s share of its school budget,
over a 35-year period.
The calculation presented in Table 4 is derived by: 1) using baseline data for Augusta County on County
Taxable Real Property, Adjusted Gross Income, Taxable Retail Sales, County School Average Daily
Membership (ADM), and County Population from the Virginia Department of Education’s 2018-2020
Composite Index of Local Ability to Pay, 2) adjusting County Taxable Real Property in subsequent years
using the Taxable Capital Investment figures from Table 3, and 3) applying those figures to the Virginia
Department of Education’s composite index formula to compute a revised composite index for Augusta
County in each subsequent year. 22 That revised composite index is then applied to the County of
Augusta’s baseline FY 2017 locally funded school budget as reported by the Virginia Auditor of Public
Accounts to determine the additional local school funding that would be required in each subsequent
year relative to the baseline.
It is important to note that this calculation measures changes from the baseline only. No attempt is
made to forecast future changes in county data beyond the addition to County Taxable Real property
from the capital improvements proposed as part of the Augusta Solar Project. As shown in Table 4,
based on these calculations, we estimate the Augusta Solar Project’s addition to Augusta County’s
Taxable Real Property would increase required local school funding by approximately $83,672 in the
project’s first year of operation, with that figure projected to gradually decline to approximately $9,297
in the project’s 35th year of operation, as the value of the proposed capital investments is depreciated.
22
The Virginia Department of Education’s composite index formula is: (0.5*(((0.66)*((County Taxable Real
Property/County School ADM)/(State Taxable Real Property/State School ADM))+((0.33)*((County Taxable Real
Property/County Population)/(State Taxable Real Property/State Population)))))+(0.4*(((0.66)*((County Adjusted
Gross Income/County School ADM)/(State Adjusted Gross Income/State School ADM)))+((0.33)*((County Adjusted
Gross Income/County Population)/(State Adjusted Gross Income/State Population)))))+(0.1*(((0.66)*((County
Taxable Retail Sales/County School ADM)/(State Taxable Retail Sales/State School ADM)))+((0.33)* ((County
Taxable Retail Sales/County Population)/(State Taxable Retail Sales/State Population))))).
Table 4: Change in Composite Index and Required Local Contribution to School Budget Attributable to the Augusta Solar Project over 35 years
(2019 Dollars)
Taxable Change in
Com- Locally
Proposed Adj. County County Locally
County Taxable Adj. Gross Taxable County posite Funded
Year Capital Taxable Real School Funded
Real Property 23 Income 25 Retail Sales 26 Pop. 28 Index School
Investment Property ADM 27 School
29
Budget 30
24
Budget
Base-
$8,692,275,041 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,762,774 $0
line
1 $8,692,275,041 $29,395,164 $8,721,670,204 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,846,446 $83,672
2 $8,692,275,041 $29,395,164 $8,721,670,204 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,846,446 $83,672
3 $8,692,275,041 $29,395,164 $8,721,670,204 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,846,446 $83,672
4 $8,692,275,041 $29,395,164 $8,721,670,204 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,846,446 $83,672
5 $8,692,275,041 $29,306,978 $8,721,582,019 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,846,195 $83,421
6 $8,692,275,041 $28,510,043 $8,720,785,083 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,843,927 $81,153
7 $8,692,275,041 $27,664,115 $8,719,939,156 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,841,519 $78,745
8 $8,692,275,041 $26,769,196 $8,719,044,236 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,838,971 $76,197
9 $8,692,275,041 $25,822,018 $8,718,097,059 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3608 $44,836,275 $73,501
23
Data Source: Virginia Department of Education, 2018-20 Composite Index of Local Ability to Pay.
24
Data Source: From Table 3.
25
26
27
28
29
Data Source: Baseline data taken from the Virginia Department of Education, 2018-20 Composite Index of Local Ability to Pay. Subsequent annual
calculations are based on the Adjusted County Taxable Real Property, Adjusted Gross Income, County School Average Daily Membership (ADM), and County
Population data presented for each year.
30
Data Source: Virginia Auditor of Public Accounts.
(2019 Dollars)
Taxable Change in
Com- Locally
29
Budget 30
24
Budget
10 $8,692,275,041 $24,816,050 $8,717,091,091 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3607 $44,833,412 $70,638
11 $8,692,275,041 $23,748,026 $8,716,023,067 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3607 $44,830,372 $67,598
12 $8,692,275,041 $22,617,945 $8,714,892,986 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3607 $44,827,155 $64,381
13 $8,692,275,041 $21,419,276 $8,713,694,316 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3607 $44,823,743 $60,969
14 $8,692,275,041 $20,152,018 $8,712,427,058 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3606 $44,820,136 $57,362
15 $8,692,275,041 $18,806,372 $8,711,081,413 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3606 $44,816,306 $53,532
16 $8,692,275,041 $17,379,074 $8,709,654,114 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3606 $44,812,243 $49,469
17 $8,692,275,041 $15,866,856 $8,708,141,897 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3605 $44,807,938 $45,164
18 $8,692,275,041 $14,263,187 $8,706,538,227 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3605 $44,803,374 $40,600
19 $8,692,275,041 $12,564,799 $8,704,839,840 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3605 $44,798,539 $35,765
20 $8,692,275,041 $10,761,896 $8,703,036,937 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3604 $44,793,407 $30,633
21 $8,692,275,041 $8,854,477 $8,701,129,517 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3604 $44,787,978 $25,204
22 $8,692,275,041 $6,829,476 $8,699,104,517 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3603 $44,782,214 $19,440
23 $8,692,275,041 $4,683,629 $8,696,958,670 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3603 $44,776,106 $13,332
24 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
25 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
26 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
27 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
28 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297

(2019 Dollars)
Taxable Change in
Com- Locally
29
Budget 30
24
Budget
29 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
30 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
31 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
32 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
33 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
34 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
35 $8,692,275,041 $3,266,129 $8,695,541,170 $1,744,534,384 $435,582,346 10,106 74,881 0.3602 $44,772,071 $9,297
Total $1,473,354

Net County Revenue
Finally, Table 5 combines the results from the calculations depicted in Table 3 and 4 to provide an
estimate of the net fiscal contribution that the proposed Augusta Solar Project would make to Augusta
County over 35 years. As these data indicate, we estimate net county revenue from the project to be
approximately $289,526 in the project’s 1st year of operation (exclusive of county fees for permitting),
with that figure projected to gradually decline to approximately $60,588 in the project’s 35th year of
operation, as the value of the proposed capital investments is depreciated. Overall, we estimate that the
cumulative net local tax revenue payments from the proposed Augusta Solar Project over 35 years
would be approximately $3,652,068.
Table 5: Estimated Net County Tax Revenue Generated by the Augusta Solar Project over 35 years
(2019 Dollars)
Gross Additional Annual Change in Locally Funded Net Additional Annual
Year
County Tax Revenue 31 School Budget 32 County Tax Revenue
1 $373,199 ($83,672) $289,526
2 $234,498 ($83,672) $150,825
3 $234,498 ($83,672) $150,825
4 $234,498 ($83,672) $150,825
5 $233,942 ($83,421) $150,521
6 $228,921 ($81,153) $147,769
7 $223,592 ($78,745) $144,847
8 $217,954 ($76,197) $141,757
9 $211,987 ($73,501) $138,485
10 $205,649 ($70,638) $135,011
11 $198,921 ($67,598) $131,323
12 $191,801 ($64,381) $127,420
13 $184,249 ($60,969) $123,280
14 $176,266 ($57,362) $118,904
15 $167,788 ($53,532) $114,257
16 $158,796 ($49,469) $109,327
17 $149,269 ($45,164) $104,105
18 $139,166 ($40,600) $98,567
19 $128,466 ($35,765) $92,701
20 $117,108 ($30,633) $86,475
31
From Table 5.
32
From Table 6.

Table 5: Estimated Net County Tax Revenue Generated by the Augusta Solar Project over 35 years
(2019 Dollars)
Gross Additional Annual Change in Locally Funded Net Additional Annual
Year
County Tax Revenue 31 School Budget 32 County Tax Revenue
21 $105,091 ($25,204) $79,887
22 $92,334 ($19,440) $72,894
23 $78,815 ($13,332) $65,483
24 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
25 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
26 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
27 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
28 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
29 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
30 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
31 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
32 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
33 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
34 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
35 $69,885 ($9,297) $60,588
Cumulative $5,125,422 ($1,473,354) $3,652,068
CURRENT AGRICULTURAL USE

In this section, we provide a benchmark for the previous estimates of the economic contribution that
the proposed Augusta Solar Project would make to Augusta County by estimating the economic
contribution that the proposed site makes to the county in its current agricultural use. In conducting
that analysis, we employ the following assumptions:
• The tax map parcels involved in the requested Special Use Permit for the project consist of
approximately 2,700 acres of privately owned land, all of which is currently zoned for General
Agriculture. However, the solar panels themselves are expected to be installed on 1,100 acres
of that total, while the remainder of the property could still be used for agricultural
production. 33
• Approximately 80 percent of the affected 1,100 acres could be used for agricultural
production. 34
33
34
Data Source: Derived from data provided by Augusta County on the acreage in the affected parcels that is
currently devoted to agricultural use.

• Average revenue per acre for Virginia farmland is approximately $409.88.35
By feeding these assumptions into the IMPLAN model, we obtain the following estimates of annual
economic and fiscal impact. As shown in Table 6, in its current agricultural use we estimate that the
proposed Augusta Solar Project site directly provides approximately: 1) 19 full-time-equivalent jobs, 2)
$165,799 in labor income, and 3) $360,691 in economic output to Augusta County. Taking into account
the economic ripple effects that direct impact generates, we estimate that the total annual impact on
Augusta County is approximately: 1) 21 full-time-equivalent jobs, 2) $204,822 in labor income, 3)
$509,411 in economic output, and 4) $19,485 in current real estate taxes.
Table 6: Total Annual Economic Impact of the Augusta Solar Project site on Augusta County – Current
Agricultural Use (2019 Dollars)

1st Round Direct Economic Activity 19 $165,799 $360,691
2nd Round Indirect and Induced
1 $39,023 $148,720
Economic Activity
Total Economic Activity* 21 $204,822 $509,411
Fiscal Impact
Local Tax Revenue36 $19,485
Cumulative Local Tax Revenue over
$681,972
35 Years
*Does not sum due to rounding
Other Considerations
Finally, it should be noted that in addition to the above estimated economic and fiscal benefits from the
Augusta County Solar project, Community Energy, the developer of the project, has also offered Augusta
County a supplemental benefit package that would make the county whole for any loss in state
education funding from the impact that the project would have on the county’s Composite Index, and
$300,000 in the project’s first year and $75,000 each year after to mitigate adverse financial impacts on
the county’s Sewer Authority. If these totals are taken into account, the estimated cumulative net fiscal
benefit from the proposed Augusta Solar Project over 35 years more than doubles from $3,652,068 to
$7,975,422.
35
Data Source: Estimated based on data from the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.
36
Data Source: Mangum Economics and Augusta County. Derived as estimated current use value of the 1,100
acres encompassed by the Augusta County Solar project footprint, times Augusta County’s real property tax rate of
$0.63 per $100 of assessed value.

The estimates provided in this report are based on the best information available and all reasonable care
has been taken in assessing that information. However, because these estimates attempt to foresee
circumstances that have not yet occurred, it is not possible to provide any assurance that they will be
representative of actual events. These estimates are intended to provide a general indication of likely
future outcomes and should not be construed to represent a precise measure of those outcomes.

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JANUARY 11, 2019

4201 DOMINION BOULEVARD, SUITE 114

ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESMENTS AND RETURN ON INVESTMENT ANALYSES

The Project Team

Martina Arel, M.B.A.

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 1

Cumulative Augusta County Tax Revenue over 35 Years

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 2

Local Economic Profile

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 3

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 4

Employment and Wages by Major Industry Sector

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 5

Health Care & Social Assistance 3,863

Transportation & Warehousing 3,060

Retail Trade 2,022

Accommodation & Food Serv. 1,652

Administrative & Support &

Wholesale Trade 864

Other Services 591

Professional, Scientific, &

Educational Serv. 274

Finance & Insurance 270

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 223

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 111

Mgmt. of Companies &

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 6

Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises $1,766

Health Care & Social Assistance $1,037

Mining, Quarrying & Oil & Gas

Wholesale Trade $930

Finance & Insurance $915

Average, All Industries $867

Professional, Scientific, &

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing $705

Educational Serv. $596

Retail Trade $575

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation $292

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 7

Administrative & Support & Waste Mgmt. 187

Health Care & Social Assistance 173

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Serv. 101

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 17

Accommodation & Food Serv. 17

Transportation & Warehousing 14

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing -2

Mining, Quarrying & Oil & Gas Extr. -2

Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises -19

Finance & Insurance -31

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation -31

Retail Trade -41

-400 -200 0 200 400 600

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 8

Figure 6: Unemployment Rate – November 2013 to November 20187

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 9

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 10

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 11

Economic Impact Employment Labor Income Output

ONGOING OPERATIONS PHASE

Economic and Fiscal Contribution of Augusta Solar 12

Economic Impact Employment Labor Income Output

Results – Fiscal Impact