Institutional Equities

KEC International
30 January 2019

Reuters: KECL.BO; Bloomberg: KECI IN

Healthy Revenues And Margins; Working Capital & Debt Stays Elevated BUY
KEC International (KEC) posted 10% YoY growth in revenues to Rs26.5bn in 3QFY19, marginally below
our and consensus estimates by 3% each. The top-line growth was driven by non-T&D segments with Sector: Capital Goods
railway (up 165% YoY at Rs5.5bn), civil (up 26% YoY at Rs1.1bn) and cable (up 14% YoY at Rs3.1bn)
scaling up. T&D segment’s revenues grew only 2% YoY to Rs15.6bn owing to: (a) Deliberate slowdown CMP: Rs237
in execution of a domestic TBCB project owing to liquidity issues with a private sector client. (b)
Temporary stoppage in execution in a West African project, which has now resumed. SAE Towers’ Target Price: Rs365
sales also fell 39% YoY to Rs1.9bn, on a high base, as financial closure and approval from the new
government are awaited. EBITDA grew 15% YoY to Rs2.8bn, leading to a 40bps YoY rise in margin to Upside: 54%
10.6%, above our/consensus estimate of 10.3% each. PAT was flat YoY at Rs1.1bn impacted by high
interest costs (up 53% YoY at Rs857mn). The bottom-line was in line with our estimate. FY19-YTD order Chirag Muchhala
intake was up only 2% YoY at Rs115.3bn while the order book grew 2% QoQ to Rs206bn, at life-time
Research Analyst
3QFY19 Result Update

high level. While 9MFY19 EBITDA margin is healthy at 10.5%, up 60bps YoY, the revenues and order
inflow growth in FY19 are likely to be below initial guidance. For FY19, the management expects 12.5%- chirag.muchhala@nirmalbang.com
15% revenue growth (versus 15% earlier) and mid-single digit order inflow growth (versus 10%-15% +91-22-6273 8092
earlier). The working capital and debt position remains elongated, but the management expects this
situation to improve from 4QFY19 onwards. For FY20, considering the life-time high order book, the
management expects 15%-20% revenue growth while sustaining the current EBITDA margin profile. We Key Data
have marginally cut our earnings estimates and retained Buy rating on KEC with a revised target price Current Shares O/S (mn) 257.1
of Rs365 (from Rs395 earlier) based on 14x September 2020E EPS.
Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$mn) 60.9/856.9
Order book at a life-time high: FY19-YTD order inflow was up 2% YoY at Rs115.3bn driven by T&D
(Rs66.9bn), railway (Rs20.7bn), SAE Towers (Rs11.5bn), cable (Rs9.2bn) and civil (Rs4.6bn) segments. 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 443/233
Further, KEC has a L1 status in orders worth Rs18bn including two projects from Brazil and a railway contract
from domestic market. T&D order inflow was driven by international markets leading to the share of overseas Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 310,033
order inflow rising to 52% in FY19-YTD versus 37% YoY. In international markets, Middle East (Abu Dhabi,
Jordan, Dubai), South East Asia (Thailand, Malaysia) and SAARC (Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan) are key
growth drivers. Order backlog is at a life-time high of Rs206bn, up 20% YoY and 2% QoQ (2x FY18 sales) - Price Performance (%)
48% domestic and 52% international. T&D segment (including SAE Towers) accounts for 73% of the order 1M 6M 1 Yr
book, while railway segment accounts for 23% .
KEC International (20.8) (31.4) (32.8)
Working capital position: The working capital and debt level remained elongated in 3QFY19. Net debt stood
at Rs30.7bn in 3QFY19, down from Rs31.5bn QoQ, which the management intends to reduce to Rs25bn by Nifty Index (1.9) (5.6) (4.3)
the end of FY19. Net working capital days stood at 145 in 3QFY19, flat on QoQ basis. The management
Source: Bloomberg
expects both debt and working capital position to improve from 4QFY19 onwards.
Key conference-call highlights: (a) KEC aims to achieve Rs17bn sales in railway segment in FY19 and 20%-
25% growth in FY20. The addressable opportunity size is Rs600bn. (b) KEC aims to achieve Rs5bn sales in
civil segment in FY19 and plans to significantly scale up by focusing on sectors such as industrial, residential,
government, affordable housing, airport, defence etc. (c) Rs2.7bn worth of receivables were collected from
Saudi Arabia in 4QFY19 till date while Rs6bn is still pending, but not due yet. (d) TBCB projects from clients
such as Essel, Adani and Sterlite are less than Rs7bn in value (less than 5% of order book) and are fully
funded at the SPV level. Hence, receivable risk is unlikely as KEC gets paid directly by bankers of the SPV.
Outlook: Healthy earnings CAGR of 16.6% over FY18-FY21E, healthy return ratios, strong T&D order book
and high scalability of railway and civil segments will support the current valuation of KEC.

Y/E March (Rsmn) 3QFY18 2QFY19 3QFY19 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9MFY18 9MFY19 YoY (%)
Net revenues 24,048 24,085 26,466 10.1 9.9 63,903 71,594 12.0
Raw material costs 17,381 17,158 19,003 9.3 10.8 44,780 51,423 14.8
Staff costs 1,916 2,068 2,111 10.2 2.1 5,775 6,213 7.6
Other expenses 2,309 2,327 2,539 9.9 9.1 6,990 6,449 (7.7)
Total expenditure 21,606 21,553 23,653 9.5 9.7 57,546 64,085 11.4
EBITDA 2,442 2,532 2,814 15.2 11.1 6,357 7,509 18.1
EBITDA margin (%) 10.2 10.5 10.6 - - 9.9 10.5 -
Interest costs 561 768 857 52.7 11.6 1,680 2,273 35.3
Depreciation 272 304 309 13.5 1.5 823 911 10.7
Other income 71 17 36 (49.6) 108.2 129 163 26.0
PBT 1,679 1,477 1,684 0.3 14.0 3,984 4,487 12.6
Tax 565 514 575 1.6 11.9 1,357 1,562 15.1
Exceptional items 4 15 15 - - 15 45 -
PAT 1,118 978 1,124 0.5 14.9 2,641 2,970 12.5
PAT margin (%) 4.6 4.1 4.2 - - 4.1 4.1 -
EPS (Rs) 4.3 3.8 4.4 0.5 14.9 10.3 11.6 12.5
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 1: Financial summary (consolidated)
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net sales 85,844 100,580 114,841 134,405 152,307
EBITDA 8,179 10,062 12,058 14,113 16,145
Net profit 3,048 4,604 5,035 6,147 7,305
EPS (Rs) 11.9 17.9 19.6 23.9 28.4
EPS growth (%) 106.1 51.1 9.4 22.1 18.8
EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.6
P/E (x) 20.0 13.2 12.1 9.9 8.3
P/BV (x) 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.5 7.2 6.1 5.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1
RoCE (%) 16.9 24.0 23.8 23.1 24.9
RoE (%) 21.2 25.7 22.9 23.2 22.9
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 2: Segment-wise snapshot (consolidated)

Y/E March 3QFY18 2QFY19 3QFY19 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9MFY18 9MFY19 YoY (%)
Revenues (Rsmn)
T&D 15,320 13,350 15,630 2.0 17.1 43,230 39,050 (9.7)
SAE Towers 3,190 1,830 1,950 (38.9) 6.6 7,180 6,480 (9.7)
Cable 2,720 2,650 3,100 14.0 17.0 7,310 8,340 14.1
Railway 2,080 4,210 5,510 164.9 30.9 4,850 12,850 164.9
Civil 870 1,060 1,100 26.4 3.8 1,420 3,350 135.9
Solar 340 1,330 160 (52.9) (88.0) 990 3,090 212.1
Revenue mix (%)
T&D 62.5 54.6 56.9 - - 66.5 53.4 -
SAE Towers 13.0 7.5 7.1 - - 11.0 8.9 -
Cable 11.1 10.8 11.3 - - 11.2 11.4 -
Railway 8.5 17.2 20.1 - - 7.5 17.6 -
Civil 3.5 4.3 4.0 - - 2.2 4.6 -
Solar 1.4 5.4 0.6 - - 1.5 4.2 -
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 3: Order inflow and order book position

(Rsmn) ( (Rsmn)
60,000 200,000
180,000
50,000 160,000
40,000 140,000
120,000
30,000 100,000
80,000
20,000 60,000
10,000 40,000
20,000
0 0
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12

4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17

2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13

2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18

Order intake (LHS) Order backlog (RHS)

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

2 KEC International
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 4: Segment-wise order book break-up Exhibit 5: Geography-wise order book break-up
2% 2%
0%
23%

48%
52%

63%
10%

T&D SAE Towers Railways Cables Civil Solar India International

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 6: Actual performance versus our estimates, Bloomberg consensus estimates

3QFY19 (Rsmn) Actual Our estimates Deviation (%) Bloomberg cons. est. Deviation (%)
Revenues 26,466 27,149 (2.5) 27,290 (3.0)
EBITDA 2,814 2,800 0.5 2,780 1.2
PAT 1,124 1,115 0.8 1,179 (4.7)
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 7: Change in our estimates

(Rsmn) Old New Deviation (%)
Y/E March FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenues 115,530 133,605 154,674 114,841 134,405 152,307 (0.6) 0.6 (1.5)
EBITDA 12,131 14,029 16,395 12,058 14,113 16,145 (0.6) 0.6 (1.5)
PAT 5,070 6,105 7,433 5,035 6,147 7,305 (0.7) 0.7 (1.7)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 8: P/E trend

(Rs) (x)
600 25

500
20

400
15
300
10
200
5
100

0
0
Aug-15

Sep-17

Aug-18
Jun-15

Jan-16

Jan-18

Jun-18

Jan-19
Jul-16

Jul-17
May-16
Mar-16

Feb-17
Apr-15

Apr-17

Apr-18
Oct-15

Oct-16
Dec-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
Aug-15

Sep-17

Aug-18
Jun-15

Jan-16

Jan-18

Jun-18

Jan-19
May-16
Jul-16

Jul-17
Mar-16

Feb-17
Apr-15

Oct-15

Oct-16

Apr-17

Apr-18
Dec-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

5x 10x 15x 20x 25x KEC stock price P/E Median P/E

Source: BSE, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: BSE, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

3 KEC International
 Institutional Equities
Financial statement (consolidated)
Exhibit 9: Income statement Exhibit 10: Cash flow
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net sales 85,844 100,580 114,841 134,405 152,307 EBIT 6,882 8,964 10,848 12,817 14,742
% growth 0.8 17.2 14.2 17.0 13.3 (Inc.)/dec. in working capital 8,736 (504) (15,886) (3,620) (2,750)
Raw material costs 59,489 72,716 82,800 97,310 110,270 Cash flow from operations 15,618 8,461 (5,038) 9,197 11,992
Staff costs 7,327 7,984 8,843 10,215 11,423 Other income 289 404 230 269 305
Other overheads 10,849 9,819 11,140 12,769 14,469 Depreciation 1,297 1,097 1,211 1,296 1,403
Total expenditure 77,665 90,518 102,783 120,293 136,162 Tax paid (-) (1,381) (2,531) (2,711) (3,310) (3,934)
EBITDA 8,179 10,062 12,058 14,113 16,145 Net cash from operations 15,823 7,431 (6,309) 7,452 9,765
% growth 18.1 23.0 19.8 17.0 14.4 Capital expenditure (-) (954) (1,599) (1,800) (1,600) (1,600)
EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.6 Net cash after capex 14,868 5,832 (8,109) 5,852 8,165
Other income 289 404 230 269 305 Interest paid (-) (2,536) (2,466) (3,330) (3,629) (3,808)
Interest costs 2,536 2,466 3,330 3,629 3,808 Dividends paid (-) (494) (740) (926) (1,234) (1,543)
Depreciation 1,297 1,097 1,211 1,296 1,403 Inc./(dec.) in short-term borrowing (11,975) (3,316) 12,000 (1,500) (1,500)
Profit before tax 4,635 6,902 7,747 9,457 11,239 Inc./(dec.) in long-term borrowing 1,828 (372) 200 - -
Tax 1,587 2,298 2,711 3,310 3,934 Inc./(dec.) in total borrowings (10,147) (3,688) 12,200 (1,500) (1,500)
Net profit 3,048 4,604 5,035 6,147 7,305 Cash from financial activities (14,227) (5,983) 7,944 (6,363) (6,850)
PAT margin (%) 3.6 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 Others 585 385 - - -
EPS (Rs) 11.9 17.9 19.6 23.9 28.4 Opening cash balance 853 2,080 2,313 2,148 1,637
% growth 106.1 51.1 9.4 22.1 18.8 Closing cash balance 2,080 2,313 2,148 1,637 2,952
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Change in cash balance 1,227 233 (165) (511) 1,315

bit 1: Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 11: Balance sheet
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Exhibit 12: Key ratios
Share capital 514 514 514 514 514 Y/E March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Reserves 15,349 19,460 23,570 28,483 34,246 Per share (Rs)
Net worth 15,864 19,974 24,084 28,997 34,760 EPS 11.9 17.9 19.6 23.9 28.4
Short-term loans 12,325 9,010 21,010 19,510 18,010 Book value 61.7 77.7 93.7 112.8 135.2
Long-term loans 7,757 7,384 7,584 7,584 7,584 Valuation (x)
Total loans 20,082 16,394 28,594 27,094 25,594 P/E 20.0 13.2 12.1 9.9 8.3
Deferred tax liability (net) 1,240 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 P/BV 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.8
Total liabilities 37,186 37,376 53,686 57,099 61,361 EV/EBITDA 9.7 7.5 7.2 6.1 5.2
Net block 8,516 8,288 9,558 9,862 10,059 EV/sales 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5
Capital work-in-progress 51 781 100 100 100 Return ratios (%)
Goodwill 2,972 2,834 2,834 2,834 2,834 RoCE 16.9 24.0 23.8 23.1 24.9
Investments 1,304 393 393 393 393 RoE 21.2 25.7 22.9 23.2 22.9
Inventories 3,947 6,274 6,607 6,996 7,511 RoIC 17.9 26.2 25.3 24.1 26.1
Debtors 42,268 50,444 56,634 65,546 73,024 Profitability ratios (%)
Cash 2,080 2,313 2,148 1,637 2,952 EBITDA margin 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.6
Other current assets 26,012 33,798 37,378 43,343 48,811 EBIT margin 8.0 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.7
Total current assets 74,306 92,829 102,768 117,522 132,299 PAT margin 3.6 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.8
Creditors 31,672 46,572 38,565 45,855 52,869 Turnover ratios
Other current liabilities & provisions 18,291 21,178 23,402 27,757 31,455 Total asset turnover ratio (x) 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.6
Total current liabilities 49,963 67,749 61,967 73,613 84,324 Debtor days 180 183 180 178 175
Net current assets 24,343 25,080 40,801 43,909 47,975 Inventory days 17 23 21 19 18
Total assets 37,186 37,376 53,686 57,099 61,361 Creditor days 194 234 170 172 175
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Solvency ratios (x)
Debt-equity 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.7
Interest coverage 2.7 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.9
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

4 KEC International
 Institutional Equities
Rating track
Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)
29 November 2012 Buy 62 79
2 January 2013 Buy 67 79
7 January 2013 Buy 68 79
31 January 2013 Buy 61 79
2 April 2013 Buy 57 79
9 April 2013 Buy 55 79
9 May 2013 Buy 49 68
22 May 2013 Buy 47 68
9 July 2013 Buy 32 68
6 August 2013 Buy 25 41
7 October 2013 Buy 29 41
29 October 2013 Buy 34 41
13 February 2014 Buy 54 65
5 May 2014 Hold 77 85
1 August 2014 Accumulate 120 126
9 October 2014 Buy 106 126
3 November 2014 Buy 102 130
9 January 2015 Buy 93 130
6 February 2015 Buy 86 124
27 March 2015 Buy 74 124
15 April 2015 Buy 104 124
8 May 2015 Buy 99 131
9 June 2015 Buy 108 131
28 July 2015 Buy 150 176
12 October 2015 Buy 142 176
29 October 2015 Buy 137 176
8 January 2016 Buy 142 176
5 February 2016 Buy 113 171
12 April 2016 Buy 131 171
10 May 2016 Buy 129 175
29 June 2016 Buy 139 175
12 July 2016 Buy 147 175
1 August 2016 Buy 143 175
13 October 2016 Buy 125 175
9 November 2016 Buy 125 177
10 January 2017 Buy 144 177
1 February 2017 Buy 148 177
14 February 2017 Buy 165 191
7 April 2017 Buy 214 191
22 May 2017 Buy 243 285
6 July 2017 Buy 256 305
3 August 2017 Accumulate 297 305
9 October 2017 Accumulate 302 305
7 November 2017 Accumulate 315 325
9 January 2018 Accumulate 388 325
7 February 2018 Accumulate 344 365
6 April 2018 Accumulate 413 365
15 May 2018 Accumulate 379 390
10 July 2018 Accumulate 338 390
6 August 2018 Buy 327 380
9 October 2018 Buy 250 380
5 November 2018 Buy 305 395
9 January 2019 Buy 284 395
30 January 2019 Buy 237 365

5 KEC International
 0
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Apr-12
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Oct-12

6
Feb-13 Rating track graph
May-13
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Mar-14
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Oct-14
Jan-15
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Not Covered
Aug-15
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Covered
Apr-17
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KEC International
Institutional Equities
 Institutional Equities
DISCLOSURES

This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation. NBEPL is a
registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also
a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments.

NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have
different or contrary views on stocks and markets.

NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in
securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or
its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the
subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject
company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report.

NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the
company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other
benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an
officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject
company.

Analyst Certification: I/We, Mr. Chirag Muchhala the research analysts is the author of this report, hereby certify that the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or
industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this
research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any
recommendations.

7 KEC International
 Institutional Equities
Disclaimer
Stock Ratings Absolute Returns
BUY > 15%
ACCUMULATE -5% to15%
SELL < -5%
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Team Details:
Name Email Id Direct Line
Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com -

Girish Pai Head of Research girish.pai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8017 / 18

Dealing
Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8230, +91 22 6636 8833
Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8100/8101, +91 22 6636 8831
Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8102/8103, +91 22 6636 8830

Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

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8 KEC International