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An Integrated Approach to Remaining Life Prediction of

Rotating Machines

Tarun Chugh V.Sankaranarayanan P.V.Varde

Nuclear Power Corporation of Nuclear Power Corporation of India Bhabha Atomic Research Centre,
India Limited, Limited, Mumbai
Anushaktinagar, Mumbai Anushaktinagar, Mumbai India-400085
India-400094 India-400094 +91 9892464817
+91 9420175883 +91 9869762622 varde@barc.gov.in
tarun.chugh91@gmail.com vsankaranarayanan@npcil.co.in

State-of-the-art decisions related to repair and replacement of Healthiness of the machines contributes to the production, down
rotating machines in any process or industrial environment is time reduction, reliability and revenues. Monitoring of the
still based on qualitative engineering judgment which often healthiness of the machines, therefore, is very important and
tends to be arbitrary and conservative in nature and has potential essential. The ability to accurately predict changes in
for loss of revenue and more importantly net production. The properties/parameters of electrical machines is of critical
subject acquires significant dimension as number of rotating importance in optimizing the maintenance schedule of the plant.
machines, for example, induction motors are very high, say of Thus, there is a continuous need to device test methods or to find
the order of 10 to 1000 or more for a plant like nuclear or more searching and sensitive parameters to predict the machine
process plant. Thus, there is a need to have a science or rational health. In view of this, it becomes quite important for a
based approach for the plant managers to take decisions related maintenance engineer to be able to predict the health of
to maintenance or ageing assessment based on well defined induction motor leading to appropriate usage of the machine(s),
quantitative metrics or criteria. Industry experience suggests that reduction in downtime, enhanced operational reliability & safety
prediction of health of insulation in an induction motor is one of and revenues. Thus, the maintenance action can be optimized by
the important parameters that require attention towards diagnostics and prognostics methods which form a part of
characterizing the life of the machine. Condition Based Maintenance (CBM).
This paper presents R&D work being performed on predicting The stressors that affect large electric motors are: Heat,
the remaining useful life of insulation of the induction motors. Chemicals, Pressure, Steam, Radiation, Mechanical
The focus of this R&D is on development of an integrated Cycling/Rubbing, Humidity/Water Spray, Electromagnetic
framework where data driven approach is integrated to physics- Cycling, Vibration/Seismic, and Foreign Object Ingestion.
of –failure approach towards developing robust model for
The stressors act independently and/or synergistically to cause
predicting the remaining life of insulation.
failures in the major subcomponents of large electric motors,
such as the stator windings, electrical terminations, bearings, and
rotor cage. All of the stressors listed above contribute to the
Keywords gradual or catastrophic degradation of the insulation system.
Induction Motors, Residual Useful Life (RUL), Physics-of- Mechanical and electromagnetic cycling, ingestion of foreign
failure, Winding Insulation. objects, and vibration-related stressors act upon the mechanical
integrity of the machine. They can cause bearing and lubrication
1. INTRODUCTION system problems, rotor breakage, mounting/enclosure failures,
and failures of the shaft/couplings.
Rotating machines like induction motors are complex The stator winding system plays an important role in induction
electro-mechanical devices utilized in most industrial motors. A well designed stator winding insulation system can
applications for the conversion of power from electrical to prevent the electrical short. There are several components and
mechanical form. Although induction motors are constructed, features in a stator winding insulation system, such as strand
tested, and qualified to rigorous standards, failures of electric (sub-conductor) insulation, turn insulation and ground-wall (or
motors in nuclear power plants continue to occur. Operating ground or earth) insulation. Turn insulation is used for
anomalies, failures of other equipment, and other unforeseen preventing shorts among the turns in the coil. The electrical
circumstances can all contribute to aging degradation in motors. insulation system decides the lifetime of insulation. For different
Recent studies regarding the operating experience of electric purposes of insulation in electrical equipment, there are several .
motors and the effects of aging on electrical equipment in [9]
nuclear power plants have indicated that many electric motor
failures can be attributed to the aging and degradation of In this paper, various approaches to study the insulation
insulating materials and bearings caused by high temperature, degradation phenomenon in induction motors like Failure Mode
vibration, moisture and other stressors. Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Fuzzy
Logic are reviewed and analyzed.
Turn-to-turn Same as above Same as
In order to understand the relationships of the various stressors
to large motor operational performance, a failure modes and
effects analysis (FMEA) was performed as shown in TABLE I. Open Breakdown of Same as
The FMEA provides a systematic procedure for determining winding insulation and above for
how each component of a device or system can fail, the melting of failure
mechanisms that cause it to fail, and how it can affect the overall conductor due
performance of the device or system. The means for detection of to electrical
the identified failure mechanisms are established along with transients and
methods for mitigating the effects of the failure mechanisms.[2] surges
Broken winding
conductor due
Table 1. FMEA for Induction Motor to vibration,
NAME S fatigue.
Stator Winding to Thermal Electrical Trip
Winding ground fault degradation of Stator Phase-to- Same as above Same as above
insulation due Leads ground fault
to high ambient Damage to and Coil
temperature, motor winding Cross-ties
restricted requiring Phase-to- Same as above Same as above
ventilation, Rewind phase
under- or over- Fault
voltages, low
frequency, Open circuit Breakdown of Same as above
mechanical insulation and
overload, melting of
voltage conductors due
imbalance, to electrical
single-phasing, transients and
too frequent surges
starting, high Broken
process fluid conductor due
temp, dust or to vibration,
dirt electromagnetic
accumulation transients,
Mechanical and/or cyclic
degradation of fatigue.
insulation due Mechanical
to vibration and damage from
rubbing loose
Breakdown of part or ingested
insulation due part
to electrical Mechanical
transients and damage from
surges contact
Degradation of with rotating
insulation due part
to moisture,
lubricant, Loose leads Loosening of Degradation
chemical or leads, coil and damage to
reactions, or coil cross- crossties, and insulation and
dirt ties fasteners due to conductors
Manufacturing vibration,
defect in electromagnetic
insulation transients,
Mechanical and/or cyclic
damage from fatigue.
loose part or
ingested part Mechanical
damage from
Winding-to Same as above Same as loose
winding above part or ingested
Fault part
Stator Loose Loosening of Increased
Core laminations stator core losses (heat)
and locking assembly due to due to larger Broken rotor Same as above Same as above
bars in vibration leakage flux bar
stator core Rotor Loose Loosening of Increased
assembly Core laminations stator core losses (heat)
Loosening of Increased and locking assembly due to due to larger
stator core motor bars in vibration leakage flux
assembly due to Current stator core
electromagnetic assembly Loosening of Increased
transients stator core motor
assembly due to Current
Misalignment electromagnetic
of core transients
manufacture Misalignment
of core
Lamination Thermal Increased during
Overloading degradation and losses manufacture
wear of (heat) due to
lamination excessive
insulation current in iron Lamination Thermal Increased
core Overheating degradation and losses
wear of (heat) due to
Increased lamination excessive
motor insulation current in iron
Current core.
Rotor Rotor bars Fatigue due to Increased rotor current
Squirrel cracked at vibration and cage resistance
Cage end ring mechanical and heating. Fault Tree Analysis of Insulation Breakdown
Assembly cycling
Increased One of the most critical component of an induction motor
Fatigue due to vibration and and also one of the main sources of their failure is the stator
electro- wear of core winding insulation system. Various surveys on motor
magnetic laminations reliability have been carried out over the years where the
cycling and insulation. percentage of motor failures due to problem with the
transients insulation is about 26%. The unscheduled process downtime
caused by a failure of the insulation system can cause
Crack adjacent
enormous costs. FTA for stator winding insulation failure of
bars due to
induction motor is shown in Figure 1.
Defective welds flexure
or brazed Joints

Rotor bars Loosening due Increased

loose in core to vibration and vibration and
slots mechanical wear of core
cycling laminations
Loosening due insulation
cycling and

Loosening due
to thermal Same as above
cycling and
swaging during
Manufacture Figure 1. FTA of insulation failure in a Motor
3. FUZZY LOGIC FOR RUL range extends from certain minimum to permissible maximum
value. The variation in the range of degradation particularly
ESTIMATION depends on several factors such as the time period over which
motors are in use and the operating conditions
In this approach, the d-q model for an induction motor is
simulated using MATLAB/SIMULINK. The d-q model requires
that all the three-phase variables have to be transformed to the
two-phase synchronously rotating frame. Consequently, the
induction machine model has blocks transforming the three-
phase voltages to the d-q frame and the d-q currents back to
three-phase. [3]
The induction machine model implemented in this paper is
shown in Figure 2.

Figure 3 : Insulation Degradation in an Induction Motor

The induction motor of particular make, type and the frame-
size of suitable rating employed for particular application in an
industry usually operate under variable load condition. In
general, the motor is operating with the presence of many
recipient faults, which are observable at corresponding
frequencies in stator current spectrum .These include the stator
winding faults due to several causes like inter-turn short circuit
Figure.2 : Simulink d-q Model of an Induction Motor etc; but other than the fault of stator insulation degradation. The
fault with the stator insulation degradation would appear at
supply frequency. In the spectrum the amplitude of current
Simulation of Insulation Degradation [4] corresponding to supply frequency has two components; one due
to actual load and other due to the stator insulation degradation.
To study the effect of stator insulation degradation in an In order to fetch the current component due to stator insulation
induction motor, it is assumed that a shunt resistance is added in degradation it is therefore essential to eliminate the current
series with the phase impedance of the stator and the value of component due to load. Hence, it is obvious that the motor is to
this resistance can be changed to vary the effect of degradation be operated at minimum mechanical load to ascertain the degree
of stator insulation. The insulation sheets between the slots and of degradation of stator insulation.
coils and on the enameled wires and between the turns in the coil
are consists of different classes of insulation material. The As a function of mains phase variables (ia, ib, ic) the Current
choice depends on the maximum temperature rise permissible Parks vector components (id, iq) are:
for each class. For each class of insulation material there exist
limiting temperatures beyond which deterioration sets in and
progresses rapidly. The degradation of insulation of the (1)
respective phase results in the reduction of resistance to the
thermal conductivity. This results into higher heat transfer from
the surface of the stator windings to the remaining part of
structure. The interpretation of higher heat transfer is that the
motor is subjected to extra load. Hence, motor draws more (2)
current as compared to what it would have drawn had the
Under ideal conditions, three phase currents lead to a
insulation not degraded. The increase in current is interpreted as
reduction in the steady-state equivalent resistance of motor Current Park vector with the following components.
referred to stator. This is based on the interpretation of the
presence of shunt resistance (Rsh) distributed across the entire (3)
phase as represented in the Figure 3. The degree of degradation
of, stator insulation is estimated on the basis of unbalance in
stator phase currents.
Where; I – Maximum value of the supply phase current;
For the induction motor of particular make, type and the
frame size of suitable rating employed for particular application w –Supply frequency;
in an industry, it is probable that the status of degradation of
stator insulation varies over considerable finite range. The finite t – Time variable.
The percentage of degradation of stator insulation per phase expressed directly by a fuzzy system. Therefore, the natural
is determined on the basis of unbalance in stator phase currents. format greatly eases the interface between the engineer
knowledge and the domain expert. Furthermore, infinite
Ideal condition refers to zero-percent (0%) state of graduations of truth are allowed, a characteristic that accurately
percentage of degradation of stator insulation of the respective mirrors the real world, where decisions are seldom “crisp”.
phases. First, the respective three-phase stator currents viz. Ia, Ib
and Ic in amps; are computed and then on the basis of three to As stated, the induction motor condition can be deduced by
two-phase transformation model its Current Park vector pattern observing the stator current amplitudes. Interpretation of results
is determined. The Current Park vector representation is a is difficult as relationships between the motor condition and the
circular pattern centered at the origin of the coordinate-axis as current amplitudes are vague. Therefore, using fuzzy logic,
illustrated by Figure 4. numerical data are represented as linguistic information
In our case, root mean square (rms) the stator current amplitudes
Ia, Ib, and Ic are considered as the input variables to the fuzzy
system. The stator condition in terms of the Residual Useful Life
(RUL) is chosen as the output variable. All the system inputs
and outputs are defined using fuzzy set theory.



Figure.4 : Id-Iq - Induction Motor (Balanced Condition)
When the stator insulation is degraded, then the plot between
id and iq is an ellipse. The area under the ellipse increases with (8)
increase in degradation of the stator winding. The simulation
results implies that each one of the current park vector data where Iaj Ibj , Icj and RULj are, respectively, the elements
pattern is unique in representing the degree of unbalance in of the discrete universe of discourse Ia, Ib, Ic, and RUL. µia(Iaj)
three-phase stator current on account of specific state of µib(Ibj) µic(Icj) and µrul(RULj) are, respectively, the
degradation of stator insulation of respective phases. This is corresponding membership functions.
shown in the figure 5.[10] Basic tools of fuzzy logic are linguistic variables. Their values
are words or sentences in a natural or artificial language,
providing a means of systematic manipulation of vague and
imprecise concepts. More specifically, a linguistic variable is
characterized by a quintuple (x, T(x), U, G, M), where x is the
variable name; T(x) is the set of names of the linguistic values of
x, each a fuzzy variable, denoted generically by x and ranging
over a universe of discourse U. G is a syntactic rule for
generating the names of x values; M is the semantic rule
associating a meaning with each value.
For instance, the term set T (RUL), interpreting stator
condition, RUL, as a linguistic variable, could be
T (RUL) ={100% , 80%, 60%,40%,20%} (9)
Where each term in T (RUL) is characterized by a fuzzy subset,
in a universe of discourse RUL. Good might be interpreted as a
stator with no faults, damaged as a stator with voltage
unbalance, and seriously damaged as a stator with an open
Similarly, the input variables Ia, Ib, and Ic are interpreted as
Figure.5 : Id-Iq Induction Motor (Un-Balanced Condition) linguistic variables, with
Fuzzy Logic [5,6,7] T (Q)={Zero, Small , Medium, Big} (10)
A stator current signal contains potential fault information. The Where Q = Ia, Ib, Ic, respectively.
most suitable measurements for diagnosing the faults under
consideration, in term of easy accessibility, reliability, and Fuzzy rules and membership functions are constructed by
observing the data set. For the measurements related to the stator
sensitivity, are the stator current amplitudes Ia, Ib, and Ic.
currents, more insight into the data is needed, so membership
Fuzzy systems rely on a set of rules. These rules, while functions will be generated for zero, small, medium, and big. For
superficially similar, allow the input to be fuzzy, i.e. more like the measurement related to the stator condition, it is only
the natural way that humans express knowledge. Thus, a power necessary to know if the stator condition is good, damaged, or
engineer might refer to an electrical machine as “somewhat seriously damaged. Once the form of the initial membership
secure” or a “little overloaded”. This linguistic input can be functions has been determined, the fuzzy if-then rules can be
derived. Figure 6 depicts the linguistic variables used in this Rule (10) : If Ia is M and Ib is M and Ic is M Then RUL is 100%
study. Membership functions for the input and output functions Rule (11) : If Ia is S and Ib is S and Ic is S Then RUL is 100%
are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8 respectively. Rule (12) : If Ia is S and Ib is M and Ic is S Then RUL is 60%
Rule (13) : If Ia is M and Ib is S and Ic is S Then RUL is 60%
Rule (14) : If Ia is M and Ib is M and Ic is S Then RUL is 60%

Figure 9 shows the relationship of Ia with RUL as established by

the Fuzzy Rule.

Figure.6 : Fuzzy logic –Linguistic variables

Figure.9 : Relationship of Ia with RUL

The simulation is run for two cases. In the first case, the stator
insulation is healthy and the stator current and the derived id and
iq are shown in Figure 10 and 11 respectively. The Fuzzy
Controller output is low signifying healthy condition as shown
in Figure 12.
In Case 2, the insulation failure is assumed, thus the effective
stator resistance is varied for phase C. This is shown in Figure
13. The plot between id and iq is not a circle but an ellipse which
is shown in Figure 14. Finally, the Fuzzy Controller Output is
Figure.7 : Membership Function of Ia,Ib and Ic
high signifying deteriorated condition as shown in Figure 15.

Figure.8 : Membership Function for RUL

These rules have been optimized so as to cover all the healthy

and the faulty cases. For ourstudy, we have obtained the
following 14 if-then rules.
Rule (1) : If Ia is Z Then RUL is 20 %
Rule (2) : If Ib is Z Then RUL is 20 %
Rule (3) : If Ic is Z Then RUL is 20 %
Rule (4) : If Ia is B Then RUL is 20 %
Rule (5) : If Ib is B Then RUL is 20 %
Rule (6) : If Ic is B Then RUL is 20 %
Rule (7) : If Ia is S and Ib is S and Ic is M Then RUL is 60%
Rule (8) : If Ia is S and Ib is M and Ic is M Then RUL is 60%
Rule (9) : If Ia is M and Ib is S and Ic is M Then RUL is 60% Figure.10: Ia,Ib and Ic in Healthy Condition of Insulation
Figure.11 : Id and Iq in Healthy Condition of Insulation

Figure.13 : Ia,Ib and Ic in Deteriorated Condition of


Figure.12 Fuzzy Controller Output in Healthy Condition of

Figure.14 : Id and Iq in Deteriorated Condition of Insulation
Our thanks to sponsors of ICRESH-ARMS 2015 for their
intellectual and financial support.

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