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Red Meat Consumption and Mortality: Results From 2 Prospective studies were examined, which means that they were
Prospective Cohort Studies. designed prior to any data collection. Retrospective designs
Pan A, et al. Arch Intern Med. 2012 Mar 12. [Epub ahead of print] would have been more highly subject to broken, inconsistent, or
[Pubmed] irrelevant data sets. Along these lines, the authors mentioned that
their study had “high rates of long-term follow-up, and detailed
BACKGROUND: Red meat consumption has been associated
with an increased risk of chronic diseases. However, its and repeated assessments of diet and lifestyle.” While this might
relationship with mortality remains uncertain. PURPOSE: We be true compared to retrospective designs, these control
prospectively observed 37 698 men from the Health measures have limited reach – as we’ll see in the next section.
Professionals Follow‐up Study (1986‐2008) and 83 644 women
from the Nurses' Health Study (1980‐2008) who were free of Limitations
cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer at baseline. Diet was The fundamental limitation of epidemiological research is that
assessed by validated food frequency questionnaires and it’s observational rather than interventional. As such, there is no
updated every 4 years. DESIGN: We prospectively observed 37 true control of the variables. There’s no direct suppression or
698 men from the Health Professionals Follow‐up Study (1986‐
elimination of superfluous factors that can interfere with the
2008) and 83 644 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1980‐
isolation of the causal agents and their effects.
2008) who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and
cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed by validated food Observational research (which includes cohort, cross-sectional,
frequency questionnaires and updated every 4 years. RESULTS: and case-control studies) is limited to drawing correlational or
We documented 23 926 deaths (including 5910 CVD and 9464 associative relationships. They are good for providing hints,
cancer deaths) during 2.96 million person‐years of follow‐up. questions, and food for thought, but not firm conclusions.
After multivariate adjustment for major lifestyle and dietary Observational research is useful for generating hypotheses that
risk factors, the pooled hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of total can then be subjected to the more rigorous investigation in
mortality for a 1‐serving‐per‐day increase was 1.13 (1.07‐1.20) Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). RCTs are considered the
for unprocessed red meat and 1.20 (1.15‐1.24) for processed gold standard of research design because it’s the only type of
red meat. The corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.18 (1.13‐ research that can establish cause-and-effect relationships.
1.23) and 1.21 (1.13‐1.31) for CVD mortality and 1.10 (1.06‐
1.14) and 1.16 (1.09‐1.23) for cancer mortality. We estimated Whenever a headline contains the phrase “associated with,”
that substitutions of 1 serving per day of other foods (including “correlated with,” “linked to,” or “increases the risk of,” you
fish, poultry, nuts, legumes, low‐fat dairy, and whole grains) for can bet it’s based on observation rather than controlled
1 serving per day of red meat were associated with a 7% to intervention. Observational research makes headlines more often
19% lower mortality risk. We also estimated that 9.3% of than interventional research because their long durations & large
deaths in men and 7.6% in women in these cohorts could be subject numbers can track the incidence of emotionally charged
prevented at the end of follow‐up if all the individuals topics like death and disease. The problem is, observational
consumed fewer than 0.5 servings per day (approximately 42 research can be plagued with multiple rogue variables. As such,
g/d) of red meat. CONCLUSION: Red meat consumption is epidemiology is more prone than controlled experiments to
associated with an increased risk of total, CVD, and cancer suggesting relationships between variables that happened in spite
mortality. Substitution of other healthy protein sources for red of each other – not because of each other.
meat is associated with a lower mortality risk. SPONSORSHIP:
This study was supported by grants from the National Aside from these fundamental limitations of observational
Institutes of Health and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood research, the data collection method can profoundly influence
Institute (Dr Sun). the validity of the outcomes. The authors assert that the use of
References
The DASH, BOLD, & BOLD+ contained 28 g, 113 g, & 153 g 1. Pan A, et al. Red Meat Consumption and Mortality: Results
(1, 4, & 5.4 oz) lean beef per day. Nevertheless, as seen above, From 2 Prospective Cohort Studies. Arch Intern Med. 2012
all of the lean beef-containing diets had a significantly greater Mar 12. [Epub ahead of print] [Pubmed]
blood cholesterol-lowering effect than HAD, with no significant 2. Marks GC, et al. Relative validity of food intake estimates
differences between groups. Interestingly, a nonsignificant rise using a food frequency questionnaire is associated with sex,
in triacylglycerol (TG) in the DASH diet, which contained the age, and other personal characteristics. J Nutr. 2006
least beef. The strongest TG decrease was seen in the BOLD+ Feb;136(2):459-65. [Pubmed]
diet, with the highest beef dose. But this is unsurprising since it 3. Schaefer EJ, et al. Lack of efficacy of a food-frequency
had a higher protein & lower carbohydrate content than the rest questionnaire in assessing dietary macronutrient intakes in
of the diets. In addition, BOLD+ was the only diet that subjects consuming diets of known composition. Am J Clin
significantly lowered the atherogenic apolipoprotein B compared Nutr. 2000 Mar;71(3):746-51. [Pubmed]
to the control diet. The take-home message of this study is that 4. Plasqui G, Westerterp KR. Physical activity assessment
when lean beef is included within the context of a sensible diet with accelerometers: an evaluation against doubly labeled
(unlike what largely was examined in Pan et al’s observational water. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2007 Oct;15(10):2371-9.
study), health can actually improve. Amazing how context [Pubmed]
actually matters. To quote the authors’ concluding statement: 5. Trabulsi J, Schoeller DA. Evaluation of dietary assessment
instruments against doubly labeled water, a biomarker of
“The results of the BOLD study provide convincing evidence habitual energy intake. Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab.
that lean beef can be included in a heart-healthy diet that 2001 Nov;281(5):E891-9. [Pubmed]
meets current dietary recommendations and reduces CVD 6. Mahabir S, et al. Calorie intake misreporting by diet record
risk.” and food frequency questionnaire compared to doubly
There are a couple of things I’d like to add. First off, these labeled water among postmenopausal women. Eur J Clin
improvements were seen despite the inclusion of a formal Nutr. 2006 Apr;60(4):561-5. [Pubmed]
exercise regimen, which undoubtedly would have improved 7. Schatzkin A, et al. A comparison of a food frequency
health indexes even further. And these improvements would questionnaire with a 24-hour recall for use in an
likely be most amplified in the BOLD+ diet if resistance training epidemiological cohort study: results from the biomarker-
was included in the training regimen. Another noteworthy tidbit based Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition (OPEN)
is that carbohydrate was the dominant macronutrient in all the study. Int J Epidemiol. 2003 Dec;32(6):1054-62. [Pubmed]
diets, with fat in the middle, and protein in the smallest 8. Micha R, et al. Red and processed meat consumption and
proportion. It’s important to note that the current evidence is not risk of incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes
mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
necessarily in favor of carbohydrate-dominant diets for lowering
Circulation. 2010 Jun 1;121(21):2271-83. Epub 2010 May
cardiovascular disease risk, at least in sedentary & non-athletic
17. [Pubmed]
populations. A strong illustration is a systematic review of RCTs
9. Roussell MA, et al. Beef in an Optimal Lean Diet study:
by Hession et al, who concluded that low-carbohydrate/high-
effects on lipids, lipoproteins, and apolipoproteins. Am J
protein diets are at least equally effective, if not more so than
Clin Nutr. 2012 Jan;95(1):9-16. Epub 2011 Dec 14.
low-fat/high-carbohydrate diets for reducing bodyweight and [Pubmed]
cardiovascular disease risk.10 10. Hession M, et al. Systematic review of randomized
controlled trials of low-carbohydrate vs. low-fat/low-calorie
Conclusions
diets in the management of obesity and its comorbidities.
The observational data indicting red meat – especially Obes Rev. 2009 Jan;10(1):36-50. Epub 2008 Aug 11.
unprocessed meat – is weak compared to the evidence from [Pubmed]
Editor’s note: Special thanks is due to Chi L. Chiu for offering References
the following feedback. Anyone who wants to discuss this further
may contact him through his Facebook page. Bray GA (2012), Smith SR, de Jonge L. Effect of dietary protein
__________________________________________________ content on weight gain, energy expenditure, and body
composition during overeating: a randomized controlled trial.
JAMA. 2012 Jan 4;307(1):47-55. [Pubmed]
Hi Alan,
Hivert MF (2007), Langlois MF, Carpentier AC. The entero-
Some quick thoughts on the Bray GA 2012 review (I did not insular axis and adipose tissue-related factors in the prediction of
read the publication, just your review). weight gain in humans. Int J Obes (Lond). 2007 May;31(5):731-
42. Epub 2006 Nov 28. Review. [Pubmed]
You mention that the first law of thermodynamics suggests, that
the low protein group should add more fat mass than the medium Prior BM (1997), Cureton KJ, Modlesky CM, Evans EM,
and high protein group, which it did not. You suggest that it may Sloniger MA, Saunders M, Lewis RD. In vivo validation of
come in time, when the gaining of fat free mass wears off, which whole body composition estimates from dual-energy X-ray
sounds reasonable. I do however, have some additional thoughts absorptiometry. J Appl Physiol. 1997 Aug;83(2):623-30.
on the matter, that can explain this result: [Pubmed]
Salans LB (1968), Knittle JL, Hirsch J. The role of adipose cell
1. I noticed that the amount of carbs are consistent in all groups. size and adipose tissue insulin sensitivity in the carbohydrate
The body tends to burn of glucose first and prefers storing fat as intolerance of human obesity. J Clin Invest. 1968 Jan;47(1):153-
fat, as demonstrated by several isotope studies (Schwarz JM 65. [Pubmed]
2002, Strawford A 2004). This makes perfect sense, because
why would you want to waste energy on converting glucose into Soenen S (2010), Westerterp-Plantenga MS. Changes in body fat
fatty acids, when you can burn it off. The medium and high percentage during body weight stable conditions of increased
protein groups in the Bray study have less fat than the low daily protein intake vs. control. Physiol Behav. 2010 Dec
protein group. So there is less to store as fat, which leaves carbs. 2;101(5):635-8. Epub 2010 Sep 29. [Pubmed]
Why didn't the low protein group store the excess carbs as fat? Schwarz JM (2002), Mulligan K, Lee J, et al. Effects of
recombinant human growth hormone on hepatic lipid and
2. The increase of calories would almost certainly lead to insulin
carbohydrate metabolism in HIV-infected patients with fat
resistance (Hivert MF 2007, Salans LB 2007). This impairs
accumulation. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2002 Feb;87(2):942.
glucose uptake and the excess glucose does not turn to fat, but
[Pubmed]
leaves the body as expensive urine. This happens with diabetes
mellitus (roughly translated as 'pass-through honey-sweetness'), Strawford A (2004), Antelo F, Christiansen M, Hellerstein MK.
which was named after this phenomenon. It's the calorie-out part Adipose tissue triglyceride turnover, de novo lipogenesis, and
of the equation, which can lead up to an estimated 400 kcal per cell proliferation in humans measured with 2H2O. Am J Physiol
day with diabetes patients. Although I have no idea how insulin Endocrinol Metab. 2004 Apr;286(4):E577-88. Epub 2003 Nov 4.
resistant the participants became, I think that it is a reasonable to [Pubmed]
assume that glucose leaked that way. Swe Myint K (2010), Napolitano A, Miller SR, et al.
Quantitative magnetic resonance (QMR) for longitudinal
The two factors combined would explain, at least for the most
evaluation of body composition changes with two dietary
part, the weight difference between the groups, suggesting that
regimens. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2010 Feb;18(2):391-6. Epub
the first law of thermodynamics is still valid in this experiment.
2009 Aug 20. [Pubmed]
I was not impressed by the additional amount of fat free mass
(0.75 kg) in the high protein group. You mentioned that they fed
3 g per kg bodyweight, which is more than what is used in
normal practice. The authors applied the gold standard for
energy measurements with a metabolic chamber and doubly This clip is genuinely hilarious; ego training at its finest. At least
labeled water. They did not hold the same standard for body the guys in that video seem to be only about 75% serious. Credit
composition with the DXA. The gold standard is the four- goes to Matt Perryman for tipping me off to that precious
compartment (4C) method which is more expensive and more of footage.
a hassle. To assess the claim, we need to know the deviation of
the DXA from a 4C measurement. This has been tested several
times, and although the DXA is quite accurate, it does get
thrown off a bit with body mass changes, which has to do with If you have any questions, comments, suggestions, bones of
the fluctuation of hydration. Differences of 1 or 2 kg between 4C contention, cheers, jeers, guest articles you’d like to submit, or
and DXA measurements are the rule, not the exception (Prior any feedback at all, send it over to aarrsupport@gmail.com.