BUSINESS FACULTY

CAREER OF ADMINISTRATION AND INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

ESSAY ON ECONOMIC-COMMERCIAL REALITY OF THE

COUNTRY CONSIDERING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN
CULTURAL REALITY

Members:
Amasifuen Salazar, Katte
Cruz Gutiérrez, Sergio
Trujillo Arana, Cristina
Vilela León, Jhanira
Teacher:
Vilela Seminario, Oscar Jonathan
Course:
Global Market Perspectives

TRUJILLO – PERU
2018 –2
1. Company Info

- Company name: SAC Carubi shoes

- Category: footwear and textiles
- RUC: 20440337717
- Address: Calle San Luis Miguel Grau 528, El Porvenir - Trujillo - La Libertad
2. Business idea

Currently the footwear industry in Peru, which consists of several companies

and public and private institutions, has been developing over the last 20 years
many efforts to generate greater competitiveness and addressing income of
tough competitors like shoe manufacturers from Asia who in parallel have been
growing and making their way into new markets such as Latin America getting
itself to consolidate through the use of various strategies including the
generation of economies of scale through the use of technology . Similarly we
can mention Brazil, who has developed certain competitive capabilities that
have awarded the title of being one of the largest exporters of footwear globally
region; but nevertheless,

Thus it was born the idea of CARUBI footwear export to the United States, in
order to internationalize this Peruvian 0empresa and earn international
recognition.
3. Projected cash flow

2019 2020 2021

INCOME
sales S /. 1585920 S /. 1903104 S /. 2,283,725.00
Investment S /. 110.000 -
TOTAL INCOME S /. 1695920 S /. 1903104 S /. 2,283,725.00

EXPENDITURES
Sales cost S /. 1291392 S /. 1468109 S /. 1761731
wages S /. 18.339 S /. 18.339 S /. 18.339
Local rental S /. 302,400 S /. 302,400 S /. 302,400
Light S /. 22,800 S /. 22,800 S /. 22,800
Water S /. 1,320 S /. 1,320 S /. 1,320
Cell phone S /. 4,980 S /. 4,980 S /. 4,980
gratifications S /. 2,028 S /. 2,028 S /. 2,028
It's health S /. 2,016 S /. 2,016 S /. 2,016
CTS S /. 2,028 S /. 2,028 S /. 2,028
Settlement S /. 9.000 S /. 9.000 S /. 9.000
Mobility S /. 1,200 S /. 1,200 S /. 1,200
viatical S /. 3.600 S /. 3.600 S /. 3.600
Rep - maintenance S /. 6,024 S /. 6,024 S /. 6,024
TOTAL SPENDS S /. 1667127 S /. 1843844 S /. 2137466
CASH FLOW OF ECONOMIC S /. 28.793 S /. 59260.00 S /. 146,259.00
Amortization of debt S / 55172.00 S /. 55172.00 S /. 55172.00
CASH FLOW FINANCIAL -S /. 26.379 S /. 4,088.00 S /. 91087.00
 VNA and IRR

initial investment S /. 110.000

TO B
YEAR VALUE YEAR VALUE
2019 S /. 1,695,920.00 2019 S /. 1,667,127.00
2020 S /. 1,903,104.00 2020 S /. 1,843,844.00
2021 S /. 2,283,725.00 2021 S /. 2,137,466.00
TOTAL S /. 5,882,749.00 TOTAL S /. 5,648,437.00

NET CASH FLOW

AB
YEAR VALUE -S /. 110.000
2019 28793.00 28793.00
2020 59260.00 59260.00
2021 146,259.00 146,259.00

Number of periods Interest rate initial investment

36 2.40% -S /. 110.000

GO S / 110847.21
TIR 37%
4. Project profitability analysis

INITIAL BALANCE
As of December 31, 2018
(In soles)
ACTIVE
Cash 70.000,00
Commodity 25,000.00
various supplies 10,000.00
Mquinaria property and
equipment 33,000.00

TOTAL ASSETS 138,000.00

PASSIVE
Financial obligations 38.000,00

TOTAL LIABILITIES 38.000,00

EQUITY
Accumulated results 0.00
Social capital 100,000.00
TOTAL ASSETS 100,000.00

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND

SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY 138,000.00
ANALYSIS OF RENTABILITY

LIQUIDITY

current assets 138000 3.631578947

current liabilities 38000

The company has no problems paying their debts,

the contrary is in optimal condition to contract
financial obligations.
 ACID TEST:

active current -
inventories 138000-0 3.6315789
current liabilities 38000.0

The result being greater than 1, it shows that the company has
money to meet its short-term debts.

GLOBAL DEBT

totally passive 38000 3.8 %

equity 1000000

The company has a low debt

so you have not committed their heritage.

ROE 1.02

ROE is positvio, representing the return on equity (which receive shareholder) will be
positive to the export of footwear ..
 5. Risk probability and impact - MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

To analyze the risks, probabilities and impact on cash flow, analyzed the following three possible
scenarios with changes in variables: sales, production cost and unit price.
Pessimistic Scenario

YOU GO OUT PRODUCTION COST UNIT PRICE

Increase in 6% due It reduced in 4% due
Decrease in 4% due to higher raw to the price war of the
to low materials prices competition

likely Scenario

Sales Production Cost Unit Price

The prices of raw
The demand The unit price is
materials are
remains stable maintained
maintained
Source: Ow n Elaboration

Optimistic Scenario

YOU GO OUT PRODUCTION COST UNIT PRICE

Increased in 6% It was reduced in 8%

due the growth of due to lower prices Increased in 6% to get
the demand of raw marerials more profits

Having established the reason for modifying each varying in the previous
scenarios, we proceed to calculate the NVP, IIR and B / C of each one to analyze
Which are the Risks and impacts on the investment.

Results of Scenarios
 The pessimistic scenario would give a positive NVP, however, the result of
benefit-cost would be 1.03 so it would be Concluded That If This scenario Were brilliant
the project would generate the same amount of income and expenses, and in summary,
it would not be significant if it is Carried out or not as it would not Provide profitability.
The current scenario would give a positive NVP, an IRR of 75% and a B / C of
1.18 so it Understood That the investment would generate more income than expenses,
it would be profitable and THEREFORE advisable to carry out the export project if there
Were These conditions.
The optimistic scenario would Also have a positive NVP, a very ambitious IRR of
120% and a benefit-cost of 1.35 Which would mean That If These conditions met, the
project would be very advisable to do it and would give a lot of profitability .

SCENARIO
PESSIMISTIC PROBABLE OPTIMISTIC
CONCEPT (AVERAGE) (AVERAGE) (AVERAGE)
470,000
YOU GO OUT 312,000 UNITS 350.000 UNITS UNITS
PRODUCTION
COST $ 4.85 $ 4.35 $ 3.75
UNIT PRICE $ 10.25 $ 10.75 $ 12.00
RESULTS
NVP $ 2'965,052 $ 5'234,987 $ 13'252,879
IRR 41% 75% 120%
B/C 1.03 1.18 1.35
6. Conclusions
 The initial investment required for the export of footwear United States is US S /. 110,000.
 As for the sensitivity analysis of the three scenarios raised the critical variables, it was possible
to determine that it is important to increase sales. Because project profitability is sensitive to
variations in production costs.
 Footwear exports to the United States presents itself as a profitable project that generates
positive benefits. Because, in the third year of the projection, the initial investment will be
recovered.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS
 Must be taken into account where there is a forecast or decision of a significant uncertainty,
it is recommended to consider Monte Carlo simulation: If you do not, your estimates or
forecasts may be far from the mark, with adverse consequences for their decisions.
 The higher you go in an organization, the more you will find yourself dealing with
uncertainty. Simulation and risk analysis may not be essential for low value everyday
decisions, but will be invaluable as manage high-level decisions, more strategic and more
important.