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Foresight of Wind Power Industry by 2050

Maxwell Chen 陳世芳


CEO & Business/Investment Architect
Maxwell Venture Service LLC
Global Wind Power Investment Summit in Taiwan
2015/11/27
maxwell.chen@gmail.com

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential


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Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential


Introduction of Maxwell Chen

• Education:
2002~2004:M.S., Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University
1996~2000:B.S., Electronic Engineering, National Chiao Tung University
• Venture Capital Experience (since 2004):
(1) Sunsino Venture Capital Group, (2) Vertex Venture Holdings, a Temasek
Holdings company.(3) C Squared Capital, (4)Waterland Venture Capital, a
Waterland Financial Holdings company.(5) Sasson Capital, a MTI company.
• Board of Directors:
2015/08~now:CEO & Business/Investment Architect at Maxwell Venture
Service LLC. (麥斯管理顧問有限公司), Also an angel investor.
2015/02~now:Member of the Supervisory Board at uSenlight Inc. (佑勝光電)
2014/05~now:Member of the Supervisory Board at Dexatek Technology (海峽數
碼)
• Successful Exit Investment (19 cases):
穩懋半導體(WIN Semiconductor) 、創意電子(Global Unichip) 、光環科技(TrueLight) 、上詮光纖
(FOCI) 、隆達電子(Lextar Electronics)、晶宏半導體(UltraChip)、韋僑科技(Securitag Assembly Group)、
全智科技(Giga Solution) 、笙泉科技(Megawin Technology)。聯銓科技(EPITECH )、元砷光電(SOUTH
EPITAXY) 、聯鈞光電(eLaser)、前鼎光電(APAC Opto Electronics) 、奇力光電(Chi Mei Lighting
Technology)、興能高科技(SYNergy ScienTech)、星通資訊(Loop Telecom) 、光頡科技(Viking Tech)、
高平磊晶(Kopin Taiwan)、聯勝光電(High Power Opto)。
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 4
Omni-industry Analysis & Proactive Investment

• Omni-industry Analysis: (http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/)


• 離岸風力發電(Offshore Wind Power)/海底電纜(Submarine Cable)
• 物聯網(IoT)通訊系統(IoT Communication Systems)
• 超級智慧電網 (Super Smart Grid)/數位電源控制(Digital Power Control)
• 微機電/半導體/IC設計/IP設計 (MEMS/Semiconductor/IC Design/IP Design)
• 電動車(EV)/電動機車(E-scooter)/電動腳踏車(E-bike)/能源服務(Energy Service)
• 醫療設備(Medical Equipment)/醫療感測器(Medical Sensors)
• 生質能(Biomass)/再生能源(Renewable Energies)/石油與天然(頁岩)氣(Oil & Natural/Shale
Gas)
• 新材料(New Materials)/穿戴式電子(Wearable Electronics)
• 科技農漁業(Technology Agriculture & Fisheries)
• 水資源(Water Resources)
• 國際連鎖企業(International Chain Enterprise)/社會企業(Social Enterprise)/媒體與網路
(Media & Internet)/文創產業(Cultural Enterprise)
• 智慧型機器人(Intelligent Robot)/航太(Aerospace)/精密機械(Precision Machinery)
• Proactive Investment:Teaming up CEO, Chairman, CTO, Investors
for establishing uSenlight Inc. It’s based on my business plan and
relationships.

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 5


Outline

• Market Size:My Forecast from 2000 to 2050 vs. Global Potentials


• Cost Reduction Curve
Onshore from 1980 to 2050; Offshore from 2005 to 2050
There are More Rooms to Grow Non-Hydro Renewable Power in Taiwan
Factors Driving Cost Reduction :Competitions、Technology Improvements、
Economies of Scale
• Taiwan Supply Chain & Today’s Agendas
Onshore Supply Chain; Offshore Supply Chain
Taiwan supply chain is getting ready to develop offshore wind power.
• From Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer/Protector
• Policy Ecosystem
Power Market is a Part of Financial Market
• Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits & Onshore Super Smart Grid
• Conclusion
• Acknowledgement
• Q&A

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 6


Global Wind Power Market by 2050

• CAGR from 2000-2050: (1) World:11.66%; (2) Onshore:10.73%; (3)


Offshore:23.71%。
2000-2050 Global Wind Power Cumulative Capacity
5000

4500
2050, 4315GW
Cumulative Capacity (GW)

4000
2050, 2834GW
3500

3000
Crazy Forecast?
2030, 1264GW
2500

2000
2020, 676GW
2020, 46GW
1500 2015, 423GW
1000
2030, 297GW
500 2015, 13GW 2050, 1481GW
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Year

Onshore Cumulative Capacity (GW) Offshore Cumulative Capacity (GW)


Global Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Source: GWEC, EWEA, AWEA, MAKE Consulting, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 7
World Wind Potentials 250TW@100m

• If wind turbines cover all areas in the world, there is 6,000TW.


• These saturation potentials are >250TW at 100 m globally, approximately
80 TW at 100 m over land plus coastal ocean (nearshore). (1TW=1,000GW)
• 4,315GW/250,000GW = 1.73%; 2,834GW/80,000GW = 3.54%.

NO, It’s reasonable.

Source: Mark Z. Jacobson, "Saturation wind power potential and its implications for wind energy", September 25, 2012 vol. 109 no. 39,
PNAS., http://www.pnas.org/content/109/39/15679.abstract

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 8


Average LCOE in Good to Excellent Wind Sites & US Wind Power Capacity

Source: Wind Vision:A New Era for Wind Power in the United States, US Department of Energy, 2015

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 9


US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, $/MWh

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 10
Regional Effects on LCOE in the US

US$62.5/MWh
(LBNL)
Interior is about
US$48/MWh, 23%
lower than Nationwide

Source: Source: 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, US Department of Energy, August 2015

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 11


US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, NT$/KWh

USD/TWD=32.5

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 12
Source of UK Offshore Wind LCOE

• Roughly estimation by Maxwell: (the model doesn’t consider O&M inflation)


2010:150 ₤/MWh (US$227/MWh, NT$7.419/KWh)
2020:85 ₤/MWh (US$139/MWh, NT$4.204/KWh)
2030:55 ₤/MWh (US$83/MWh, NT$2.720/KWh)
2040:35 ₤/MWh (US$53/MWh, NT$1.731/KWh)
2050:25 ₤/MWh (US$38/MWh, NT$1.237/KWh)
Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2020 2023 2030
Crown Estate (₤/MWh) 140 140 140 140 90-100
BVG Associate
(₤/MWh) 110 80
160-
NREL (₤/MWh) 190 150-190 70-110 60-100
EY Associate (₤/MWh) 85
ORE Catapult 136 136 121 121 121 114
(₤/MWh) (Works Completed) (Works Completed) (FID) (FID) (FID) (CfD)
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site A,
Germany, Scenario 2 90 81 68 57
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site B,
Germany, Scenario 2 100 86 72 61
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site C,
Germany, Scenario 2 104 88 74 63
Source:Crown Estate, BVG Associate, NREL, EY Associate, ORE Catapult, EWEA; sorting by Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Exchange Rate: GBP/USD=1.51551, GBP/EUR=1.42609391
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 13
11% Decline in LCOE in the UK this Year

• Results in 2015 confirmed an 11% decline in LCOE in the UK, ahead of a


predicted cost reduction pathway set out by the Crown Estate.
• Europe accounts for 92% of all offshore wind installations globally.
Growing at a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, the
strong build-up of this emerging industry has resulted in total cumulative
installations topping 10 GW in 2015.

Crown Estate
Estimation

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 14


Estimation of Prognos & Fichtner

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 15


Asia Manufacturing Effects

• According to IRENA, average LCOE in China & India is around 43.75%


lower than OECD countries.
• We assume the price gaps are around 0% between 2000-2010, 40% to 30%
between 2010-2020, 30% to 20% between 2020-2030, 20% to 10% between
2030-2040, and 10% to 0% between 2040-2050.

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 16


Optimistic Wind Farm Variation 8-25% below Average

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation

25% below the average

8% below the average ???

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 17


Wind Farm Variation by BVG Association

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 18


LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in EU

LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 Exchange Rate


200 GBP:USD 1.51551
GBP:TWD 49.4618146
GBP:EUR 1.42609391
180
2010, ₤150
160 2020(f), ₤85
2030(f), ₤55
140
2040(f), ₤35 2050(f),₤25
2020(f), ₤63
LCOE (₤/MWh)

2010, ₤112
120

100
2030(f), ₤41
80

60 2040(f), ₤26
2010, ₤90 2050(f), ₤19
40
2020(f), ₤60
20 2030(f), ₤44
2040(f), ₤32 2050(f), ₤25
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)

2022(f)

2029(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)

2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)

2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Year

Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain


Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain

Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015


Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 19
LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in Asia, 8% Wind Farm Variation

LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 Exchange Rate


GBP:USD 1.51551
GBP:TWD 49.4618146
GBP:EUR 1.42609391
10.0
2010, NT$7.419 2020(f), NT$4.204 2050(f), NT$1.237
9.0 2030(f), NT$2.720 2040(f), NT$1.731
8.0
LCOE (NT$/KWh)

7.0
2020(f), NT$2.943 2050(f), NT$1.237
2030(f), NT$2.176 2040(f), NT$1.558
6.0 2010, NT$4.452

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0 2010, NT$4.114


1.0 2020(f), NT$2.720 2030(f), NT$2.011 2040(f), NT$1.440 2050(f), NT$1.143
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2033(f)

2037(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)

2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)

2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Year

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain


Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain

Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015


Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 20
LCOE Gap between Offshore & Onshore Wind Power by 2050

Offshore Wind LCOE over Onshore Wind LCOE


600%

237~425% in 2015
500%

400%

300%
100~150% by 2050

200%

100%
Due to Wind Farm Variation (25% lower than
average)
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2049(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)

2050(f)
UK Offshore over US Onshore Asia Offshore&Supply Chain over US Onshore
Optimistic UK Offshore over US Onshore Optimistic Asia Offshore over US Onshore

Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015


Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 21
Taiwan Case (Without Grid Cost)

• Average Electricity Selling Price of Taipower is NT$2.0533/KWh in 2005,


and NT$3.0705 in 2014. CAGR from 2005 to 2014 is 4.57%.
• If we assume 1% CAGR from 2015 to 2050, NT$4.3932/KWh in 2050.
Taiwan Electricity Price & Offshore Wind Power LCOE
10.000
Taiwan Electricity Price or LCOE (NT$/KWh)

9.000

8.000

7.000

6.000

5.000

4.000

3.000

2.000

1.000

0.000
Cross Point:2017 to 2026
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2026(f)

2032(f)

2038(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)

2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)

2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)

2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Year

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain


Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation
Source: Taipower, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 22
Taiwan Case (Considering Grid Cost)

• Grid Cost Assumption:NT$0.8/KWh (Current cost is NT$0.4811/KWh in 2015)


Taiwan Electricity Price & Offshore Wind Power LCOE+Grid Cost
12.000
Taiwan Electricity Price or LCOE (NT$/KWh)

10.000

8.000

6.000

4.000

2.000

Cross Point:2023 to 2030


0.000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2017(f)

2033(f)

2050(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)

2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)

2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
Year

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain+Grid Cost


Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation
Source: Taipower, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 23
Unfortunately, Taiwan’s Feed-In Tariff Policy is Unbalanced

2010~2014 Taiwan Feed-In Tariff Analysis


Item Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Onshore Wind 32.2 45.11 93.42 136.63 152.73
Cumullative Capacity (MW) Solar PV 3.53 37.96 125.68 277.1 370.22
Total 35.73 83.07 219.1 413.73 522.95
Onshore Wind 3,323 10,868 23,511 31,335 37,875
Generation (10,000 KWh) Solar PV 151 650 9,259 18,625 40,472
Total 3,474 11,518 32,770 49,960 78,347
Onshore Wind 908 2,703 2,305 2,929 4,516
FIT (NT$10,000) Solar PV 760 4,061 57,563 103,185 202,564
Total 1,668 6,764 59,868 106,114 207,080
Onshore Wind 0.273 0.249 0.098 0.093 0.119
Average FIT in NT$/KWh Solar PV 5.033 6.248 6.217 5.540 5.005
Total 0.480 0.587 1.827 2.124 2.643
Source:MOEA BOE, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 24
Feed-In Tariff Policy in Germany Has Changed

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 25


There are More Rooms to Grow Non-Hydro Renewable Power in Taiwan

• Fuel Oil + Light Diesel Oil:NT$52,605,344,436 (21X), 13,332,200,000 KWh


(16X)
2015 Taipower Cost Analysis (based on budget plan)
Unit Cost, Unit Cost, including
Unit Cost
Generation Type Electricity (KWh) Cost (NT$) including grid grid cost & operating
(NT$/KWh)
cost (NT$/KWh) cost (NT$/KWh)
Fossil-Fuel: 129,295,200,000 300,806,502,000 2.3265 2.8076 3.0771
Coal 56,527,000,000 67,737,061,581 1.1983 1.6794 1.9489
Fuel oil 12,908,000,000 48,997,621,745 3.7959 4.2770 4.5465
Light diesel oil 424,200,000 3,607,722,691 8.5048 8.9858 9.2553
Gas 59,436,000,000 180,464,095,983 3.0363 3.5174 3.7869
Nuclear 35,418,000,000 31,051,803,000 0.8767 1.3578 1.6273
Hydro 3,649,000,000 7,473,631,000 2.0481 2.5292 2.7987
Renewable (Wind, Solar & Others) 825,000,000 2,536,748,000 3.0748 3.5559 3.8254
Pumped Hydro 3,025,000,000
Generation Cost 341,868,684,000 1.9852
Expense:
Transmission 172,212,200,000 35,929,135,000 0.2086
Distribution 172,212,200,000 46,918,948,000 0.2724
Grid Cost 82,848,083,000 0.4811
Other Operating Cost 172,212,200,000 305,802,000 0.0018
Marketing Expense 172,212,200,000 6,205,971,000 0.0360
Administration Expense 172,212,200,000 1,485,525,000 0.0086
R&D Expense 172,212,200,000 3,512,907,000 0.0204
Employee Traning Expense 172,212,200,000 642,341,000 0.0037
Non-operating Expense 172,212,200,000 34,258,495,000 0.1989
Operating Cost 46,411,041,000 0.2695
Grid+Operating Cost 129,259,124,000 0.7506
Total Cost 172,212,200,000 471,127,808,000 2.7357
Source: Taipower, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/announcement/ann01.aspx?BType=6
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 26
Factors Driving Cost Reduction - Competitions

Enercon, Suzlon ???

*Alstom was acquired by GE Renewable Energy in 2015.


**Asia players are not clear on the radar map, but Goldwind & Envision are competitive.
Source:NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 27


GE Renewable Energy’s Ambitions

• Anders Søe-Jensen, CEO of offshore wind power at GE Renewable Energy,


said GE has 2GW order backlog, the world’s 2nd largest order backlog behind
Siemens.
• Two months field test:99% availability & 80% capacity factor.
• GE acquired Enron Wind in 2002, and Alstom Power’s wind business in 2015.
• Turbine Capacity:The current offshore top range is 6 – 8.5MW, with a possible
ceiling at around 10MW. (Maxwell’s perdition:10MW turbine will be
series production in 2017 or 2018.)
• Backlog Project List (2,226MW):Arcadis Ost 1 (348MW), Ø sterild
(6MW), Merkur offshore (396MW), Belwind (6MW), Fécamp (498MW),
Courseulles (450MW), Saint-Nazaire (480MW), Le Carnet (6MW), Block
Island (30MW), VOWTAP (12MW), Taiwan (6MW)

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 28


Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Technology Improvements

• Larger Turbine:8MW to 20+MW.


• Advanced Foundation (50 years):Twisted Jacket, Active/Passive Floater.
• Availability:95% to 99% (with predictive maintenance O&M Strategy).
• IoT Technologies in wind turbine:500 sensors to 3,000 sensors, data collecting period
from 10 minutes to 40ms, GE’s industrial internet technologies and “Power Up”
technologies with up to 5% generation increase.
• IoT Technologies in wind farm:GE’s “Digital Wind Farm” technologies with 20+%
generation increase.
• Big Data-based wind forecast:day-ahead forecast error from 10% to 3% by IBM/The
Weather Company.
• Siemens’s new transport vehicles: cost savings of 15 to 20% current cost, or
US$0.1/KWh.
• Siemens’s new offshore grid solution:New connection solution can drive the price of
offshore wind power below US$0.1/KWh by 2020, Total cost decrease of 30%,
Transmission capacity increased by 33%, transmission losses decreased by 20%.
• Turbine design life time:from 20~25 years to 40~50 years, around 11% LCOE
reduction per 5 years.
• Other Technologies:Segmented Blades, Direct-Drive, Batteries, ….
Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 29
Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Economies of Scale

• For a country (local supply chain): 10GW cumulative installation capacity.


• For an offshore wind turbine manufacturer: 3.5GW/year (BVG Associate)
• For a model of offshore wind turbine:1,000 units.
• For a offshore wind farm:100 turbines.

Source:NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market


Report, September 2015

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 30


Wind Farm CAPEX Forecast

Below US$2,000/KW is Onshore Wind CAPEX Area

Source:NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015


Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 31
Larger Turbine is Cost-Competitive

Source:NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 32


Supply Chain of Onshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Steel:CSC(中鋼) 2002.TT
• Resin:Swancor(上緯)4733.TT、Eternal Materials(長興材料)1717.TT
• Glass Fiber:TaiwanGlass(台玻)1802.TT
• Carbon Fiber:Formosa Plastics(台塑)1301.TT
• Fabric Reinforcement:Chrong Yi(重億)
• Casting:YeongGuan Group(永冠能源)1589.TT、Yuan Jun Fong Casting
(源潤豐)、TAIWAN CHENG SHENG METAL(台灣正昇金屬)
• Fasteners:Fang Sheng Screw(芳生)、BOLTUN(桓耀)8359.TT、
Chunyu(春雨) 2012.TT
• Forging Steel:Nan Lung Steel(南隆鋼鐵)、San Eng Steel Forging (三英鋼鐵)
• Tower:China Steel Machinery(中鋼機械)
• Generator:TECO(東元電機)1504.TT
• Gearbox:Formosa Heavy Industries(台塑重工)
• Blade:Horizon(嘉鴻遊艇)/Atech
• Transformer:Fortune Electric(華城電機)1519.TT

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 33


Supply Chain of Onshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Converter:Delta Electronics(台達電) 2308.TT


• Control Unit: TECO(東元電機)1504.TT、IEI Integration Corp. 3022.TT
• Pitch/Yaw System:Taiwan Gong Ji Chang (台灣工機)
• Turbine: TECO(東元電機)1504.TT
• O&M Service:ENERCON GmbH Taiwan Branch(德商風電能源技術服
務)、Vestech Taiwan(喬集偉思特風力發電)
• Monitoring System:Advantech(研華) 2395.TT、MOXA(四零四)

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 34


Supply Chain of Offshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Turbine: 新能風電(JV of TECO & CSC)


• Steel:CSC(中鋼) 2002.TT
• Resin:Swancor(上緯)4733.TT
• Carbon Fiber:Formosa Plastics(台塑)1301.TT
• Casting:YeongGuan Group(永冠能源)1589.TT
• Fasteners:Fang Sheng Screw(芳生)、BOLTUN(桓耀)8359.TT、
Chunyu(春雨) 2012.TT
• Forging Steel:Nan Lung Steel(南隆鋼鐵)、San Eng Steel Forging (三英鋼鐵)
• Tower:China Steel Machinery(中鋼機械)
• Generator:TECO(東元電機)1504.TT
• Transformer:Fortune Electric(華城電機)1519.TT
• Converter:Delta Electronics(台達電) 2308.TT、 TECO(東元電機)
1504.TT
• Control Unit: TECO(東元電機)1504.TT
International cooperation with K2 Management for onshore/offshore wind farm’s
development support, construction & installation, asset management, and due diligence.
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 35
Supply Chain of Offshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Pitch/Yaw System:Taiwan Gong Ji Chang (台灣工機)


• Monitoring System/SCADA:Advantech(研華) 2395.TT、MOXA(四零四)、
Allis Electric (亞力電機) 1514.TT
• Turbine Power Cable: SINBON Electronics(信邦電子)3023.TT
• Sealing:NAK Sealing Technologies(茂順) 9942.TT
• Capacitor:Lelon Electronics(立隆電子) 2472.TT
• Hydraulic Deceleration:C-JAC Industries/Technologies(超卓工業/西捷克科
技)
• Subsea Cable:Walsin Lihwa(華新麗華)1605.TT、Hua Eng
Wire&Cable(華榮) 1608.TT、Ta Ya(大亞) 1609.TT
• Substation:Fortune Electric(華城電機)1519.TT
• GIS Switchgear:Allis Electric (亞力電機) 1514.TT
• Foundation:China Steel Structure (中鋼構) 2013.TT、Century Iron and
Steel Industrial(世紀鋼鐵結構) 9958.TT
• Power Project:Chung Hsin Electric & Machinery Mfg. (中興電工) 1513.TT、
Tatung(大同電機) 2371.TT、SHIHLIN ELECTRIC(士林電機) 1503.TT

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 36


Supply Chain of Offshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Ship Design:Ship and Ocean Industries R&D Center


• Ship Building:CSBC(台船) 2208.TT、Jong Shyn Shipbuilding (中信造
船)、Ching Fu Ship Building(慶富造船)、LUNG TEH Shipbuilding(龍德
造船)、Hung Hua Construction (宏華營造)
• Wind Farm Developer:Taipower Group(台電)、TGC(永傳)、 Swancor(上
緯)4733.TT、InfraVest(英華威)、Dong Energy、EOLFI、CPC、 Ta Ya(大
亞) 1609.TT、China Steel Corp. (中鋼) 2002.TT、金門協成兄弟/福建福能
• Engineering Consultants:Sinotech Consultants, Inc. Group (中興工程顧問
社集團)、CECI Engineering Consultants(台灣世曦)
• Construction:Hung Hua Construction (宏華營造)、Hwa Chi Construction(樺
棋營造)、China Steel Express(中鋼運通)、Woen Jinn Harbor Engineering
(穩晉港灣工程)、Chau Hsen (昭伸企業)、Taiwan Marine Heavy Industries
(台灣海洋重工)
• Crane:Giant Heavy Machinery Service (佳運重機)、Chi Deh Crane
Engineering (啟德機械起重工程)

Taiwan supply chain is getting ready to develop offshore wind power.

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 37


From Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer & Protector

• Onshore Resource Developer:Onshore Wind Power + Livestock +


Agriculture +Tourism
• Offshore Resource Developer:Offshore wind power + Fish Farming +
Wave Power + Tidal Power + Tourism
• It finds that large turbine arrays (300+ GW installed capacity) may
diminish(降低) peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds (最大近表面風速)
by 25–41 m/s (56–92 mph) and storm surge (暴風波浪) by 6–79%.

Source: Mark Z. Jacobson1, Cristina L. Archer, Willett Kempton, "Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines", NATURE
CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 4 | MARCH 2014

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 38


Policy Ecosystem

• Green Power Market & Legislation:


Time-of-Use Power Price Market (時間電價)
Power Court (電力專業法院)
Power Arbitration Commission (電力仲裁委員會)
• Capital Market Related to Wind Power:
Wind Power Index (風電指數)
Wind ETF (風電ETF, not including Solar PV and others)
YieldCo (Energy REITs Concept)
Green Bond Market (Usually 70% CAPEX from debt financing)
National Green Fund (UK, Green Investment Bank)
PPA, Futures, Options of Power (電力的現貨、期貨與選擇權)
Other Financial Derivatives

Power Market is a Part of Financial Market

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 39


Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits

• 28GW offshore wind power in Taiwan


(Phase 1):39 sites, including 3
demonstration projects, around 3,125 Km2.
• Multi-terminal HVDC Lite Submarine
Grid: (1) Stabilizing the power grid with a
network between Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen,
Matsu; (2) lowering the cost for island power
(NT$1+B loss per year); (3) Transferring
offshore wind power to North Taiwan to
replace land-based transmission line.
• Upgrading Super Smart Grid:
Expanding “Smart Station” capacity alone
the west coast.
New Land-based transmission line to Taipei
City and New Taipei City.
• Maxwell predicted 100+GW offshore wind
power in Taiwan. (published on Technews)
We need a solution for oversupply in winter.
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 40
Conclusion

• Global wind power in 2050 will be 4,315GW (offshore 1,481GW) , with a


CAGR of 11.66% (offshore 23.71%).
• LCOE of onshore wind power by 2050 will be US$24.23/MWh
(NT$0.79/KWh).
• LCOE of onshore wind power by 2050 will be ₤19-25/MWh (NT$1.143-
1.237/KWh).
• LCOE of offshore wind power plus grid cost may be under Taipower’s average
selling price by 2030.
• There are more rooms to grow non-hydro renewable power in Taiwan, at least
21X
• Competitions, technology improvements and economies of scale drive cost
reduction.
• Taiwan supply chain is getting ready to develop offshore wind power, targeting
28 to 100+GW.
• Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer/Protector (lowering Typhoon
damages)
• Policy Ecosystem:power market is a part of financial market.
• Upgrading
Maxwell Submarine
Venture Service LLC Grid of& Confidential
All Rights Reserved Taiwan Straits & Super Smart Grid 41
Acknowledgement

• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory:


Mark Bolinger
Ryan Wiser
Katie Kirbus

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 42


Q&A

Proactive Professionalism
maxwell.chen@gmail.com
+886-988-668-608

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential