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BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING

STATES
CORE:
FL, WI, PA, MI, NH, NV

EXPANSION:

AZ, NC, GA

DEM WATCH: GOP WATCH:


MN, VA, CO IA, OH, TX
FL, WI, PA & MI CRITICAL TO TRUMP’S PATH TO 270

10 16
20

29
PRIORITIES USA TO INVEST $100M IN
EARLY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM

10
16
20
PHASE 1

29 Electoral votes
PRIORITIES USA WILL EXPAND THE MAP
IN PHASE 2 PROGRAM

10
16
20
PHASE 1
6 PHASE 2
15

11
16

29 Electoral votes
NEW POLLING
2
METHODOLOGY

FOCUS GROUPS ONLINE SURVEY: ONLINE SURVEY:


ALL REGISTERED VOTERS DEMOCRATIC
Phoenix, AZ- TURNOUT TARGETS
1,851 registered voters across
Suburban persuasion voters 400 turnout targets across an
Latinx turnout targets 7 key battleground states
(AZ, FL, MI, NH, NV, PA, WI) expanded battleground of 15
states (AZ, FL, MI, NH, NV, PA, WI,
Miami, FL- Conducted Jan. 30 to Feb. 7 plus CO, GA, IA, MN, NC, OH, TX, VA)
Young voter turnout targets
Latinx persuasion targets 13% did not vote in 2016 Conducted February 4 to 11

Milwaukee, WI Results weighted in proportion to Turnout targets: Democrats who


African-American didn’t vote in 2016 (68% registered,
share of electoral votes per state
turnout targets 32% unregistered but open to registering)

MOE = ∓2.3pp
White working-class MOE = ∓5.0pp
persuasion voters
DONALD TRUMP IS CLEARLY VERY VULNERABLE

Initial trial heats


Donald Trump Democrat Undecided

87%
79%

49%
47% 47% 47%
36%
24%
15% 19%
15%
6% 9%
3% 4%

REGISTERED 2016 2016 2016 2016


VOTERS TRUMP VOTERS CLINTON VOTERS 3rd PARTY VOTERS NONVOTERS
TURNOUT RESEARCH SHOWS DEMOCRATS ARE
POISED TO GROW THE ELECTORATE FROM 2016

IMPORTANCE OF 2020 ELECTION

83% 14% 3%

More important than past elections About the same Less Important

LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING IN 2020

50% 22% 15% 13%

Extremely likely Very likely Fairly likely Less/not likely


16% OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS DID NOT VOTE FOR CLINTON
BUT ARE INCLINED TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT IN 2020

Open to Democrat

Did not vote in 2016 Voted 3rd party Voted Trump/opposed Clinton Voted Trump/supported Trump

51% 17% 20% 12%


HEALTH CARE AND WAGES CONTINUE
TO BE IMPORTANT TO KEY VOTERS

PERSUASION MOBILIZATION
TARGETS TARGETS

59% health care 62% health care


42% wages 45% wages

PERCENT SELECTING HEALTH CARE AND


WAGES AS TOP ISSUES FOR TARGET VOTERS
VOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BELIEVE TRUMP CARES ABOUT THE
WEALTHY AND CORPORATE INTERESTS, NOT AVERAGE PEOPLE
IN EACH PAIR, WHICH STATEMENT ABOUT TRUMP COMES CLOSER TO YOUR OPINION?

Pro Trump statement Both equal Anti-Trump Statement

Donald Trump cares mostly about +26 Donald Trump cares mostly about helping the
helping the average person Wealthy and corporate special interests
AVERAGE PERSON
VS WEALTHY PEOPLE 29% 55%

Donald Trump is effective and he has +20 Donald Trump too often creates chaos and gridlock that
gotten a lot done as president prevent things from getting done
EFFECTIVE VS
CHAOS/GRIDLOCK 35% 55%

Donald Trump may exaggerate occasionally, but he mainly +17 Donald Trump has a consistent pattern of saying things that aren’t
tells the truth and it is the news media that lacks integrity true and repeating them even if they are proven false

TRUTH VS LIES 37% 54%

Donald Trump tells it like it is and doesn’t +3


worry Donald Trump’s rhetoric is mean-spirited and divisive
about being politically correct
TELLS IT LIKE IT IS
VS DIVISIVE 43% 46%
A KEY MESSAGING PRIORITY FOR 2020:
MAKING TRUMP PART OF THE PROBLEM,
NOT PART OF THE SOLUTION, FOR PEOPLE’S
BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONCERNS
VOTERS ARE MIXED ON TRUMP'S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY

DONALD TRUMP HANDLING OF ECONOMY

APPROVAL DISAPPROVAL

27% 23% 16% 34%

STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

SATISFACTION WITH ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

FAIRLY SATISFIED SOMEWHAT SATISFIED NOT THAT SATISFIED

13% 25% 24% 26% 12%

VERY SATISFIED NOT AT ALL SATISFIED


VOTERS DO NOT BELIEVE THEY'VE
BENEFITTED FROM THE TRUMP ECONOMY

How much do you feel you PERSONALLY have benefitted from Donald Trump’s economic policies?

9% 26% 17% 48%

Benefitted a lot some A little Not at all

More important fact about economy today to voters

69% 31%

Wages not keeping up with cost of living/cost of Healthcare way up


Millions of new jobs created in past few years/unemployment way down
VOTERS DO NOT BELIEVE THINGS ARE GETTING
BETTER FOR THEM OR OTHERS LIKE THEM

YOUNG PEOPLE STARTING OUT TODAY Net getting better

19% 55% -36

MIDDLE CLASS & AVERAGE WORKING FAMILIES


18% 51% -33

ME AND MY FAMILY
19% 34% -15

PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY WEALTHY


63% 6% +57

The economic situation for this group is getting worse


The economic situation for this group is getting better
AMONG TURNOUT VOTERS, ECONOMIC CONCERNS
EMERGED AS A FUNDAMENTAL REASON TO VOTE
four best reasons to get involved in the 2020 election
(showing top reasons only)
Elect president whose economic priority is
stability, security, opportunity for average 43%
people, not just helping rich get richer

Elect new president who will heal the country,


bring people together, stop dividing people like 36%
Trump does

Elect president who will address skyrocketing


healthcare/Rx costs; Trump’s policies have 35%
made things worse

Elect president who will look out for average


working Americans instead of himself, rich 34%
friends, corporate CEOs

Stand up against racism and promote racial


33%
justice; won’t happen with Trump as president
KEY TAKEAWAYS
● There is a large group of new Democratic voters to engage
○ People who didn’t vote in 2016
○ Disaffected Trump voters, whose motivation was to oppose Clinton

● Health care is dominant concern. Prime targets also prioritize:


○ Wages not keeping up with cost of living
○ Government corruption
○ Climate change/the environment

● Target voters think Trump prioritizes special interests and the wealthy, and want someone who’ll look out
for average Americans.

● Voters are more concerned with rising cost of living and falling behind over falling unemployment.
People feel conditions are changing for the worse.

● A key goal for 2019: draw a link between voters’ economic concerns and Trump’s policies and actions.
EARLY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM
WE SPENT LAST TWO YEARS BUILDING CUTTING EDGE
TECH & ANALYTICS INFRASTRUCTURE

DATA INFRASTRUCTURE STAFF

Collected 1.98 million survey Developed creative-first Built in-house teams for
responses over 2+ years targeting tools creative and media strategy

Built dozens of digital, issue & Created a dashboard for Created an internal analytics
behavioral models coordinating digital spend team to support data-driven
across IEs decision making
Used rigorous experimentation to
establish channel, audience and Engineered pipelines of data Cultivated new talent with training
goal specific best practices that to monitor online spending & fellows program new in 2020:
go beyond “does digital work” and messaging full in house buying, integrated
paid media
TRUMP IS UNDERWATER NOW,
WE NEED TO KEEP HIM THERE TO WIN

HOLD GAIN

~4% of electorate in early states (FL, MI, PA, WI) ~9% of electorate in early states (FL, MI, PA, WI)

College-educated, high income earners who live in White, 45+ & live in rural/exurban areas. Often
suburban areas. Often ‘Romney/Clinton’ voters ‘Obama/Trump’ voters

We’ve made gains over time (including 2018) but need Highlight and frame harmful GOP policies +
to solidify and grow support how they impact daily life (wages don’t keep up
with cost of living, affordable and accessible
Highlight + frame harmful policies, drilling down from health care)
surface level “the economy is good” to forward looking
economic stability, wages keeping up cost of living, Refocus conversation towards economic issues, and
saving for retirement, climate change who will build a stable future
2020 IS HERE
WE NEED TO START CAMPAIGNING NOW

FRAME REFOCUS ACTIVATE


On-the-ground communications As Trump and the media distract, Tie existing outrage about Trump &
staff to drive conversation in refocus voters on the issues that progressive values to the act of voting.
local communities matter to their lives - using search
behavior, monitoring Trump ad Drive voters in key states to vote in
Contextualize Trump’s effects activity online elections in 2019
to voters who demonstrate an
interest in learning more (using Use innovative modeling to Engage and re-engage democrats
tactics like google search to pull understand and target voters who through voter registration and re-
people in, and ongoing are the most moved by Trump’s registration
conversations in the email inbox, messaging
facebook groups)

Steady drumbeat that highlights


and frames what matters,
during the chaos
STATE CASE STUDIES
CASE STUDY: MILWAUKEE COUNTY, WI
TURNOUT CRATERED BETWEEN '12 AND '16

AUDIENCE
80,969
top tier
mobilization targets
CASE STUDY: WASHTENAW COUNTY, MI
ANN ARBOR CAN BOOST TURNOUT EVEN FURTHER

AUDIENCE
61,075
top tier
mobilization targets
CASE STUDY: DUVAL COUNTY, FL
SMALL INCREASES IN SUPPORT NEED TO BE SOLIDIFIED & GROWN

AUDIENCE
50,239
top tier
persuasion targets
CASE STUDY: CAMBRIA COUNTY, PA
HEART OF OBAMA/TRUMP COUNTRY

AUDIENCE
16,800
top tier
persuasion targets
PRIORITIES USA TO INVEST $100M IN
EARLY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM

10
16
20
PHASE 1

29 Electoral votes